| <TABLE class=tb01 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="11%">股票代码</TD> <TD width="10%">股票简称</TD> <TD width="8%">昨收盘</TD> <TD width="7%">评级人数</TD> <TD width="10%">09EPSe</TD> <TD width="11%">09P/E</TD> <TD width="12%">评级系数</TD></TR> <TR> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">002010</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%">传化股份</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="8%">12.12</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="7%">6</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">0.53</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">22.80</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="12%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">1.17</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR> <TR> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">000679</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%">大连友谊</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="8%">17.88</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="7%">5</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">0.98</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">18.25</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="12%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">1.20</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR> <TR> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">000042</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%">深长城</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="8%">23.16</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="7%">8</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">0.88</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">26.29</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="12%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">1.25</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR> <TR> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">002133</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%">广宇集团</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="8%">10.71</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="7%">3</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">0.36</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">30.05</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="12%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">1.33</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR> <TR> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">600139</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%">西部资源</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="8%">29.14</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="7%">3</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">0.44</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">65.94</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="12%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">1.33</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR> <TR> <TD vAlign=top width="11%"></TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%">鄂尔多斯</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="8%">16.81</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="7%">3</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">0.64</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">26.27</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="12%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">1.33</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR> <TR> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">000968</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%">煤气化</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="8%">26.60</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="7%">3</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">0.93</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">28.68</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="12%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">1.33</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR> <TR> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">600511</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%">国药股份</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="8%">17.60</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="7%">17</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">0.52</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">33.92</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="12%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">1.35</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR> <TR> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">000028</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%">一致药业</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="8%">18.99</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="7%">11</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">0.75</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">25.26</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="12%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">1.36</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR> <TR> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">002003</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%">伟星股份</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="8%">19.12</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="7%">15</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">0.92</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">20.76</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="12%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">1.40</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR> <TR> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">002152</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%">广电运通</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="8%">28.04</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="7%">19</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">1.19</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">23.57</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="12%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">1.42</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR> <TR> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">000895</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%">双汇发展</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="8%">40.20</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="7%">27</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">1.43</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">28.13</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="12%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">1.44</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR> <TR> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">002191</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%">劲嘉股份</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="8%">13.21</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="7%">9</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">0.53</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">24.85</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="12%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">1.44</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR> <TR> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">601186</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%">中国铁建</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="8%">10.73</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="7%">16</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">0.48</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">22.20</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="12%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">1.44</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR> <TR> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">600298</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%">安琪酵母</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="8%">22.90</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="7%">9</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">0.69</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">33.16</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="12%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">1.44</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR> <TR> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">000651</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%">格力电器</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="8%">22.18</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="7%">20</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">1.24</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">17.96</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="12%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">1.45</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR> <TR> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">600118</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%">中国卫星</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="8%">22.70</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="7%">8</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">0.63</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">36.31</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="12%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">1.50</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR> <TR> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">600697</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%">欧亚集团</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="8%">18.50</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="7%">8</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">0.76</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">24.19</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="12%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">1.50</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR> <TR> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">600787</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%">中储股份</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="8%">8.87</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="7%">4</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">0.29</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">30.25</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="12%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">1.50</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR> <TR> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">600812</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%">华北制药</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="8%">8.92</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="7%">4</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="10%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">0.40</TD> <TD width="37%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD> <TD vAlign=top width="11%">22.09</TD> <TD vAlign=top width="12%"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="63%">1.50</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> 通过对当前投资评级最高的股票进行统计分析，当前投资评级最高的股票是化工品类股票传化股份(002010)，综合评级系数为1.17。当前投资评级排名前20只股票主要分布在医药、零售、房地产、食品生产与加工和商业服务等行业。受中石化上涨的带动，上半年涨幅落后于整体市场涨幅的化工板块整体大幅上涨。现就化工行业做简要分析。 数据显示，4-7月化工跑输市场。2季度化工整体落后指数约20个百分点，从行业轮动的角度看，有补涨要求。7月多数子行业跑赢指数，平均约10个百分点。4-7月看，化纤、轮胎等子行业跑赢市场，但行业整体仍跑输市场。 太平洋(21.25,0.04,0.19%)证券分析认为，化工板块近期走强于大盘的主要理由为：其一，大量新发行的基金资金尤其是“上证50”、“央企50”等指数性基金将完全配置大盘蓝筹，这将包括石化板块，这对于整个化工板块具有支撑作用；其二，房地产、汽车、纺织行业景气的恢复，将使得产业链条的上端从中受益，这其中当然包括化工板块，这将对于整个化工板块走强起到推动作用。 目前，从化工行业下游需求和开工率看，化纤需求回暖、焦炭受益地产开工和钢铁产量创新高，开工率均较高，价格上涨概率较大。开工率较高的纺织化学品、改性塑料、轮胎等盈利超预期。地产相关的PVC、纯碱仍在底部，未来趋势向上。有机硅开工率较高，价格有小幅上涨可能。 光大证券表示，在目前的氛围下整体看好化工行业。子行业选择逻辑：第一弹性较大，第二开工率目前已经较高。具体标的选择逻辑：第一公司业绩对产品价格的敏感性，第二目前的估值水平。 申银万国建议，关注复苏预期下化工行业盈利弹性。结合基本面趋势和盈利弹性，近期焦炭和化纤价格上涨和盈利趋势向上的概率较大，EPS弹性最大的分别为云维股份(20.90,-0.15,-0.71%)、澳洋科技(13.58,-0.36,-2.58%)和烟台氨纶(32.02,-1.45,-4.33%)。化纤公司中，前期涨幅较少且市值较低的烟台氨纶和新乡化纤(6.81,-0.31,-4.35%)可重点关注。乙烯近期毛利改善，辽通化工(12.00,-0.46,-3.69%)炼油和乙烯项目建成后将具备很高盈利弹性。家电和汽车带动改性塑料需求恢复，毛利率提高带动业绩弹性。金发科技(12.55,-0.37,-2.86%)真实盈利能力超出市场预期。PVC8月进入旺季，尽管行业开工率不高，但旺季因素、期货价格反弹、进口减少等因素可能导致8-9月PVC价格季节性上涨，相关公司英力特(23.51,0.01,0.04%)、新疆天业(10.57,-0.43,-3.91%)和中泰化学(17.97,-0.56,-3.02%)可关注。有机硅开工率提高，各项业务处于底部的蓝星新材(17.11,0.61,3.70%)亦可关注。纯碱价格1-2个月内上涨概率小，但PB较低。 同时建议，关注盈利预期相对稳定公司的估值提升。09PE在20倍左右的浙江龙盛(9.18,-0.19,-2.03%)、德美化工(22.04,-0.71,-3.12%)、华鲁恒升(20.25,-0.24,-1.17%)、烟台万华(20.13,-0.17,-0.84%)等仍具配置价值，在市场估值重心不断抬高过程中，上述公司股价也将上涨，风险相对较低。 |
