<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">金属产品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">铅</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">锌</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">外盘：隔夜，伦锌遭受重挫，回吐此前涨幅，电</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">合约收报于</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2386</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美元，跌幅</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.61%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；伦铅小幅上涨，创出近三年新高，电</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">合约收报于</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2762</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美元，上涨</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.36%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">消息方面：</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">央行年内第二次加息</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.25</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">个百分点</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"> 2.OECD</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">：经济增长加速</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">通胀可能堪忧</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">现货方面：上海现货</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0#</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">锌报</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">17800-17900</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，较上交易日上涨</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">50</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，贴水</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">395-</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">贴水</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">295</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨；</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1#</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">锌报</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">17750-17850</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，涨幅</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">50</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，贴水</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">445-</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">贴水</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">345</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨。现货</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1#</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">铅报</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">17400-17600</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，保持平稳。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">库存方面：本周上期所锌现货库存为</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">370720</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，增加</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">7687</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，期货库存为</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">315060</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，较上周增加</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3378</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨。铅现货库存为</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">10393</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，较上周增加</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">8917</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，期货库存为</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">300</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，增加</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">224</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">LME</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">锌库存最新库存为</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">735400</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，较上交易日减少</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">675</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨；</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">LME</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">铅库存最新库存为</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">279425</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，较上周减少</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1775</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">观点总结：消息面上，央行再度加息或对市场构成利空，而外盘铅市的强势表现或对沪铅形成带动。基本面上，铅锌均处于供求过剩的局面。资金面上，沪锌主力合约前</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">20</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">名净空单减少至</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">万手左右；沪铅主力合约前</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">20</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">名净空单增加至</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">840</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">手，净空单比例回升。整体来看，资金操作偏空。技术显示，沪锌弱势震荡；沪铅弱势难改。操作建议：沪锌谨慎操作，观望为主；沪铅关注是否有补涨机会。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">黄金</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">外盘表现：</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">清明节国内假期期间，国际金价在避险及通胀情绪推动下再次刷新历史新高。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">Comex</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">金</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">4</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月开盘</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1436.0</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，最高触及</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1458.6</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，最低</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1432.1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，收于</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1452.5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，成交</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">154798</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">手，持仓</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">339088</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">手。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">消息方面：</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">．</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美国</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">ISM</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">非制造业指数为</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">57.3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">预期中值为</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">59.5<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">．</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美联储周二公布的</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月会议纪要显示，大多数委员预计购债计划在完成前不会做出</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">调整。充裕的流动性是黄金的一大支撑因素。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">期货方面：</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="1" Month="4" Year="2011"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4</FONT><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''" lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月</SPAN></SPAN><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''" lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''" lang=EN-US>沪金</SPAN><FONT face="Times New Roman">1106</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">合约早盘小幅高开在</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">302.03</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">克，日内最高</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">302.27</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">克，最低</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">301.32</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">克，收盘上涨</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.89</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">克，涨幅</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.30%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，成交量</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">7342</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">手，较上一个交易日有所减少，持仓</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">36726</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">手，主力合约逐渐开始向</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">AU1112</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">转移。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">ETF</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">持仓方面：</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">全球最大的黄金上市交易基金</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">表示，其黄金持仓量截至</SPAN><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="6" Month="4" Year="2011"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">4</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">6</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">为</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1,212.75</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，较上一个交易日小幅增持</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.52</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">观点总结：</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">清明节国内休市期间，国际金价仍延续强势表现，利比亚局势及欧洲债务危机继续令避险情绪居高不下，而欧美各国公布的一系列数据显示通胀有进一步上升势头，多重利好因素引发金价继续大幅上攻，短期突破</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1460</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">将继续测试上方</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1480-1520</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">区域压力。中线</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">295</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">附近进场多单仍可继续持有。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">铜</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">外盘：伦铜</SPAN><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="1" Month="4" Year="2011"><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="1" Month="4" Year="2011"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">4</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">晚间</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">最低下跌至</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">9264</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，之后出现小幅反弹，尾盘跌</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.22%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">至</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">9362</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，</SPAN><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="4" Month="4" Year="2011"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">4</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">4</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">和</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日“清明假期”内，伦铜陷入区间震荡，上下波动为</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">200</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">点左右，伦铜较假期前仅涨</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5.75</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">至</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">9367.75</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，目前铜价仍处于均线组之下，仍保持下跌趋势。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">消息方面：</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">中国人民银行周二宣布，将从</SPAN><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="6" Month="4" Year="2011"><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="6" Month="4" Year="2011"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">4</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">6</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">起</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">上调金融机构存贷款基准利率，这是中国自去年</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份以来第四次上调利率，以此对抗通胀压力。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">中国铝业副总裁刘祥民表示，全球铜需求上升以及基本面强劲料将支持</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2011</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">年铜价，但铜市料在较宽交易区</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">间呈震荡走势。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">库存：</SPAN><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="5" Month="4" Year="2011"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">4</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">伦铜库存增加</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">4425</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">至</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">442325</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，目前注销仓单占库存比处于</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2.45%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，持续下跌，且仍处于</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">之下，预计后期库存有望继续增加。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">观点总结：近期伦铜多次跌破</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">9300</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">之后均出现反弹，尾盘收于</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">9350</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">之上，从而表明</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">9300</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">一线具有较强支撑。不过从技术面来看，目前铜价仍处于均线组之下，下跌风险趋势仍在。基本面上，中国于</SPAN><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="5" Month="4" Year="2011"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">4</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">再度加息对铜价构成较大抛压，使得原本就相对紧缺的资金面更加捉襟见肘，伦铜持仓连续</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日出现减仓。另外伦铜库存的持续增加表明现货需求还未启动。不管是伦铜所处的宏观环境还是其本身供需基本面，目前来看均不利于铜价的上涨，未来有望刺激铜价重拾涨势的因素在于全球各国特别是中国和美国对铜的需求，以及铜价持续下跌吸引部分逢低买盘的介入，目前这种状况似乎还未出现，因此铜价短期料继续维持下跌走势，下方关注</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">9300</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">以及</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">9000</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">的支撑，沪铜主力则关注</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">70000</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">和</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">68000</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">的支撑。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"> <o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"></FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="8" UnitName="mm">8mm</st1:chmetcnv> Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4590</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持平；<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="20" UnitName="mm"><SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4890</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>(1) </SPAN>央行上调存贷款基准利率<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.25</SPAN>个百分点；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) </SPAN>政府或从产业安全角度部署铁矿石问题；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) </SPAN>多地电厂煤炭库存触及警戒线，煤电联动再搁浅；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(4) </SPAN>印度粉矿<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="6" Month="4" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>指数参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>179</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>14113</SPAN>吨，增<SPAN lang=EN-US>1197</SPAN>。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">小结：目前<SPAN lang=EN-US>RB1110</SPAN>合约处<SPAN lang=EN-US>4800</SPAN>附近整理，原材料价格上涨，螺纹钢成本逐渐企稳回升，另外建筑钢材库存连续<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>周下滑，但昨夜央行突然加息恐对期钢带来一定压力。操作上建议，震荡思维<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>多空参考<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR><BR>5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铝<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="1" Month="4" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>伦铝日内大幅波动，最低下探至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2595</SPAN>，但尾盘收复大部分跌幅，仅跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.17%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2634</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。而<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="4" Month="4" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>和<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日即清明假期内，伦铝表现温和，<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日收盘为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2631.25</SPAN>，较节前下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.75</SPAN>点，目前铝价仍处于高位震荡，很快将面临着方向的选择。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>中国人民银行周二宣布，将从<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="6" Month="4" Year="2011"><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="6" Month="4" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>起</st1:chsdate>上调金融机构存贷款基准利率，这是中国自去年<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月份以来第四次上调利率，以此对抗通胀压力。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>伦铝库存小幅增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>4475</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4593175</SPAN>，该水平较<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="1" Month="4" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1100</SPAN>，目前注销仓单占库存比处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5.9%</SPAN>，连续几日出现上涨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：伦铝近期收盘均处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2630</SPAN>之上，其走势在基本金属中表现稍强。清明假期内，原油价格大幅上涨，从而有望抬升铝的生产成本，刺激铝价上涨。目前伦铝已多日处于高位震荡，很快面临方向的选择，综合来看，铝价突破上涨的可能性较高，因此操作上保持多头思路，沪铝主力合约第一目标位看至<SPAN lang=EN-US>17000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>我国<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>清明节<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>期间，由于市场方面担心潮湿天气会导致巴西糖厂开榨，且在金属等其他商品市场上涨刺激下投资者<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>进场买进推动，周一<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>糖市原糖期货价格小幅上涨。但由于潮湿天气是否会影响巴西的生产前景尚有不确定性，加上<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>5 </SPAN>日我国央行宣布加息<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.25%</SPAN>影响，周二<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>糖市原糖期货价格经窄幅整理后小幅下跌。总体上，节间国际糖市呈先涨后跌走<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>势，总体价格小幅上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.44</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="28" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>28</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>俄罗斯累计加工原糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>45</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>11/12</SPAN>榨季巴西食糖产量或达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>3460</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>国内现货未有明显变化，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7260</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1628</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>698</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内主产区天气情况：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>今天白天到晚上，桂林、柳州、贺州、来宾、河池、百色、南宁、崇左、贵港、钦州、防城港等市阴天有小雨，我区<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>其它地区阴天到多云有分散小雨。南宁市<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>今天白天到晚上，阴天有分散小雨，东南风<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-2</SPAN>级，最高气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="20" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>20℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>，最低气温<SPAN lang=EN-US>15 ℃</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约反弹乏力，<SPAN lang=EN-US>7100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨及<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>日均线处有一定压力，期价短期处于多空僵持状态。操作上，短期观望、中线<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>以逢高抛空为宜。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">大豆豆粕：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、美国<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="1" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>当季大豆库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>12.48885</SPAN>亿蒲式耳，贸易商此前预估为<SPAN lang=EN-US>12.99</SPAN>亿蒲式耳。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、黑龙江省储<SPAN lang=EN-US> 08</SPAN>年产大豆拍卖约<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.07</SPAN>万吨，再度流拍。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> <BR></SPAN>外盘：美豆连续走低，中国加息，加上南美地区大豆上市，市场担忧中国的采购一方面可能下滑，另一方面也将转向南美。<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月大豆目前收盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1374.25</SPAN>美分，期价重新回到<SPAN lang=EN-US>14</SPAN>美元下方。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货价格：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、黑龙江哈尔滨地区国产大豆的收购价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3770-3880</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，目前油厂的大豆库存相对充足，部分油厂开始停收大豆。因受外盘影响，豆粕现货有所走低，目前沿海地区价格集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，部分地区成交价格可在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3150-3170</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> <BR></SPAN>操作建议：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>央行再次加息，且在开市前一天宣布，未给市场缓冲时间，并且此前加息是在市场前期普遍认为货币政策或将有所放松的时候，预计短期内会给市场一定利空冲击。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘豆类节日期间持续走低，加上加息影响，预计今日期价低开，观察盘面走势，根据盘面变化调整前期持有的多单。预计大豆和豆粕的价差将继续缩小，建立的套利单可继续持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期棉收涨，价差交易令成交放量，清明假期涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.83%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月期棉合约上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>5.51</SPAN>美分，收报每磅<SPAN lang=EN-US>201.06</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、据美国农业部（<SPAN lang=EN-US>USDA</SPAN>）预计，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011/12</SPAN>年度美国棉花种植意向面积将达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>1256.55</SPAN>万英亩，相比本年度的实际种植面积<SPAN lang=EN-US>1097.32</SPAN>万英亩增加了<SPAN lang=EN-US>159.23</SPAN>万英亩，增幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>14.5</SPAN>％；相比<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月份<SPAN lang=EN-US>NCC</SPAN>（美国国家棉花总会）预计的<SPAN lang=EN-US>1250</SPAN>万英亩接近，低于<SPAN lang=EN-US>USDA</SPAN>展望论坛上预测的<SPAN lang=EN-US>1300</SPAN>万英亩增幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>18.2</SPAN>％的水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 2</SPAN>、美国农业部<SPAN lang=EN-US>(USDA)</SPAN>最新公布的棉花出口销售报告显示，截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="24" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>24</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>当周，美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010-11</SPAN>年度棉花销售净减<SPAN lang=EN-US>32,500</SPAN>包；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011-12</SPAN>年度棉花净销售<SPAN lang=EN-US>309,500</SPAN>包。当周美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010-11</SPAN>年度棉花出口装船<SPAN lang=EN-US>451,700</SPAN>包。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 3</SPAN>、中储棉花信息中心的最新调查报告显示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年全国植棉意向面积<SPAN lang=EN-US>7,927.2</SPAN>万亩，同比增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>462.8</SPAN>万亩，增幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.2%</SPAN>，较<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月的调查结果下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.6</SPAN>个百分点，显示棉花生产形势仍较严峻。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>29852</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，与上一交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>156</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>562</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>348</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>主产区天气：未来三天，青藏高原中东部、西北地区东部、内蒙古中部、华北北部等地有小到中雪或雨夹雪，其中，西藏东部、青海东南部、川西高原北部、山西北部等地的局地有中到大雪；我国中东部的大部地区将有小到中雨或阵雨，江南东部的局部地区有大雨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：美棉收高，<SPAN lang=EN-US>USDA</SPAN>将于周五公布<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月供需报告。央行再度加息，紧缩货币政策对棉市构成压制。国内纺织企业处于棉纱库存的消化状态，中小型纺企出现降价抛售棉纱现象。现货价格继续下跌，棉企出货积极性增加，市场成交清淡。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约高开低走，期价反弹受阻回落，下方考验<SPAN lang=EN-US>28000</SPAN>一线支撑，中期维持高位震荡走势。操作上，逢高短空。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">4 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">谷物：</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">消息面：</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">、近期北方气温快速回升加上前期降雨充足，小麦生长加快。华北地区小麦一定程度减少前期旱情的负面影响。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">、黑龙江玉米购销活动清淡有价无市局面依然没有改变。虽然部分地区农户</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">手中存有一定数量的玉米但惜售心理依然较强等市观望心理依然存在，同时黑龙江养殖业及饲料加工企业需求明显上升加剧供给紧张的矛盾。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">外盘：节日期间玉米走势强劲，玉米紧张的供需基本面支撑期价触及</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">770.75</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美分的记录高位，近月</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月合约收盘在</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">766.75</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美分，自去年夏季以来，玉米期价上涨已经超过一倍。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">现货价格：</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">、国内玉米现货价格大部稳定，局部涨跌互现。其中：大连港内玉米平舱价在</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2160-2170</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，广东港口质量较好的玉米主流报价在</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2260-2270</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，与昨日基本持平。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">、河南新乡地区小麦区间盘整，面粉厂小麦挂牌收购价</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2060</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨以上，贸易商收购差价在每斤</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1-2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">分钱，价格较前几日持平，市场成交情况一般。另外，当地粮库收购价在</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2040-2050</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨（装车价），稳定，面粉厂小麦库存维持在半个月以上。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">、政策调控粮食市场的导向依然未变，加上春节刚过，市场购销难以明显转好，国内稻米价格整体走势相对平稳。江西乐平地区稻米收购价格稳定，目前当地早籼稻米厂收购价均为</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2100</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，中晚稻米厂收购价</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2200</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">操作提示：早籼稻：期价延续加速下探调整走势，目前</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">KDJ</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">指标继续向下扩散，中短期均线空头排列明显。预计期价仍有调整空间，中下逢高做空为宜。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">玉米：连玉米受外盘大幅走高刺激而高开运行，但受多头获利了结影响而走低。目前处于</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">30</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日与</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">60</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日均线之间震荡运行，操作上观望为宜。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">郑麦：旱情缓解，基本面转向利空，期价周五有下破重要支撑迹象，但前期低点预计有一定支撑，关注后期动向。操作上可少量放空。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">油脂：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：跟随美豆收低，<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>豆油维持震荡，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月收于<SPAN lang=EN-US> 58.85</SPAN>美分；因美国大豆和玉米库存下降，<SPAN lang=EN-US>BMD</SPAN>棕榈油期货主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>6 </SPAN>月合约上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>56</SPAN>令吉收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3382</SPAN>令吉<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；获利了结和谷物公司的对 冲卖盘增多打压近月合约走低，<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>加拿大油菜籽期货主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月 合约下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.20</SPAN>加元，报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>593.20</SPAN>加元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>公吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息：国际方面，<SPAN lang=EN-US>USDA</SPAN>报告继续提供未来供需偏紧的利多 报告，出口水平保持良好；产量增加，而主产国棕榈油出口水 平依然平平，未来库存水平有望增长。国内方面，商务部连续数据显示，国内食用油市场价格持续走高；两会过后，受油脂 现货回落影响，中小包装企业暂未提价；调查显示，国内菜籽 种植及生产情况不容乐观。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货：期货市场持续震荡反弹，而国内油脂现货价格基本稳定，变动幅度不大。沿海四级豆油约为<SPAN lang=EN-US>9950-10100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；港口棕榈油报价集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9200-9700</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；国内四级菜油出厂价格处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>10000-10300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">仓单：豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>8085</SPAN>张；棕榈油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>张；均无变化。菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US> 13048</SPAN>张；较上一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>81</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：利多报告奠定新年度供需偏紧格局，在较长时间内仍将发挥影响，而国内加息风声渐紧，商品上行之途艰难 。就二季度整体行情而言，反复震荡整理概率较大；而就四月 行情而言，在月初可逢低少量进多，以半个月有周期持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">连塑<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、中国化学<SPAN lang=EN-US>101.3</SPAN>亿投聚酯及尼龙新材料项目<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、全球塑料增塑剂总产量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>590</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格平稳运行。扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>11300</SPAN>，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>350</SPAN>元。东北亚乙烯报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1350——1352</SPAN>美元，东南亚乙烯报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1230—1232</SPAN>美元，均与昨日持平。市场交投谨慎。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：交易所库存报<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：上一交易日连塑高开低走，再度剧新了近期低点。成交量与持仓量却明显回升，显示下方的承接盘仍较有力。基本面上，原油高位运行、亚洲乙烯走势坚挺对其产生一定的支撑。但央行再度加息为市场增添了不确定因素，需求不振也对其产生一定的压力。预计短期仍将震荡整理。操作上，建议投资者以日内交易为宜。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>2 PVC<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、国内烧碱市场呈上涨趋势<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>行情可望持续向好<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、全球阻燃剂需求将达<SPAN lang=EN-US>220</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货市场保持平稳。<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFR</SPAN>远东报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1142</SPAN>美元，华东电石法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7750</SPAN>元，。华东乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8100</SPAN>元，西北电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300</SPAN>元，华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3800</SPAN>元。均与昨日持平。市场成交一般。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：无库存<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：上一交易日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>继续震荡回落，中阴报收，再度剧新了近期低点。成交与持仓明显回升，显示下方已有一定的支撑。基本面上，央行再度加息为市场增添了不确定因素，原油高位运行、亚洲现货走势坚挺对其产生一定的支撑。但加息预期加大及下游需求复苏缓慢则对其形成较大压力，预计短期仍将维持弱势震荡格局。操作上以日内短线为宜。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 PTA<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、日本石油、出光兴产<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>亚洲合同价执行<SPAN lang=EN-US>1690</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFR</SPAN>，较<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月结算上调<SPAN lang=EN-US>35</SPAN>美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>BP</SPAN>珠海<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>装置保持满负荷平稳运行，产能<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>装置计划于<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月底进行为期<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>周左右的停车检修。<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3</SPAN>、宁波逸盛石化一套<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>装置<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="5" Month="4" Year="2011"><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="5" Month="4" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>起</st1:chsdate>检修，预期<SPAN lang=EN-US>7-10</SPAN>天，其合约客户减量供应。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货价格：华东<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场持续下滑，市场少量报盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，市场买盘清淡，主流商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11300-11350</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近展开，实盘稀少。亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场持续走跌，台产货报盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1480</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，主流商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1470-1475</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，市场买盘稀少，韩产货商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1460</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，实盘清淡。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>8861</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>95</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2200</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：国内货币政策持续收紧打压、下游聚酯产品旺季不旺，聚酯终端产品重心弱势下移，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>价格承压下跌；短期<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>工厂检修计划增多，对<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货有所支撑。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA 1109</SPAN>合约大幅收跌，期价受<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线压制增仓下行，预计短期<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>将维持弱势调整格局，操作上，日内交易为宜，反弹抛空。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">4 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">沪胶</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">外盘走势：</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">TOCOM</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">橡胶期货</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日激增并创一个月新高，因日圆走软刺激日圆计价合约的需求而且泰国洪灾</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">加重了该国橡胶供应将下降的担忧。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">TOCOM 9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月交割的橡胶期货</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日一度上涨</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5.1%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">至</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">466.8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日圆</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">千克（</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5,532 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美元</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">公吨），为</SPAN><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="7" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">以来的最高水平，收于</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">458.1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日圆</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">千克。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">消息面：泰国橡胶协会主席</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">Luckchai Kittipol</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">称，泰国南部地区严重的洪水已经导致至少</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">50,000</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨橡</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">胶船货推迟，预期可能有更多的船货被推迟。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">现货市场：目前云南标一胶市场参考报价在</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">37500-37800</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨左右，海南标一胶参考报价在</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">37500- 37600</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨左右，越南</SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="3" UnitName="l"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3L</FONT></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">胶有报价在</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">37800-38200</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨左右（</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">13%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">票），泰国</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3#</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">烟片无票的在</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">38400-37600</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"> /</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨左右；现货市场调整幅度不大，实单多是商谈而定。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">亚洲各橡胶主产区天气预报如下：</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">泰国</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">曼谷</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">阴</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="32" UnitName="℃"><FONT face="Times New Roman">32</FONT><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''" lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''" lang=EN-US>～</SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="24" UnitName="℃"><FONT face="Times New Roman">24</FONT><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''" lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">风力：</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">级</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">越南</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">河内</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">阴</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="22" UnitName="℃"><FONT face="Times New Roman">22</FONT><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''" lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''" lang=EN-US>～</SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="17" UnitName="℃"><FONT face="Times New Roman">17</FONT><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''" lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">风力：</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">级</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">胡志明市</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">雷阵雨</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="33" UnitName="℃"><FONT face="Times New Roman">33</FONT><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''" lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''" lang=EN-US>～</SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="24" UnitName="℃"><FONT face="Times New Roman">24</FONT><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''" lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">风力：</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">级</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">马来西亚</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吉隆坡</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">雷阵雨</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="33" UnitName="℃"><FONT face="Times New Roman">33</FONT><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''" lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''" lang=EN-US>～</SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="24" UnitName="℃"><FONT face="Times New Roman">24</FONT><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''" lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">风力：</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">级转</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">级</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">印尼</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">雅加达</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">雷阵雨</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="31" UnitName="℃"><FONT face="Times New Roman">31</FONT><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''" lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''" lang=EN-US>～</SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="26" UnitName="℃"><FONT face="Times New Roman">26</FONT><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''" lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">风力：</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">级</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">仓单库存：交易所仓单报</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">12655</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，减少</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">4720</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">观点总结：目前国内外橡胶库存均表现偏低，而主产国也处于割胶淡季，这都给期胶一定的支撑，加上</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">产胶区天气出现异常，泰国南部出现持续强降雨，可能引发市场炒作。但昨天央行再度加息也给商品带来一</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">定的压力。从盘面来看，沪胶</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1109</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">合约多空争夺于</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">35000</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">关口，上有压力下有支撑下，短期期价料有所反复</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，建议投资者采取日内操作。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">沪油</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">外盘走势：</SPAN><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="5" Month="4" Year="2011"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">4</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，因基本面形势不同，全球原油市场收盘走向不一。纽约商业交易所</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">(NYMEX)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">原油期</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">货合约下跌，而布伦特原油期货合约升至多年新高。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">NYMEX</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">五月轻质低硫原油期货结算价跌</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">13</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美分，至每桶</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"> 108.34</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美元，早些时候一度跌至每桶</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">107.50</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美元的低点。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">消息面：</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">、欧佩克</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份原油产量下降；</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">、利比亚石油产量大幅下降</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">-</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">加尼姆。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">现货市场：船用油上周继续上行。中石油大连混调</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">180CST</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">供船价报</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5150</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，涨</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">50</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨；</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">DMC</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">报</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">8100 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，涨</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">100</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，资源紧张价格看涨；中燃大连公司船用油价格大涨，混调</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">180CST</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">供船价报</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5250</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">100</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，混调</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">120CST</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">供船报价</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5350</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，涨</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">60</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨。预计国际原油走势乐观，资源紧张成本拉高将进</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">一步推动市场价格上涨。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">仓单库存：交易所仓单报</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">490900</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，减少</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">7000</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">观点总结：中东局势的发展支撑了国际油价保持在高位，但当前宏观经济局势的不稳定以及国内央行再</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">度加息也使得市场担忧情绪浮现。目前华南地区混调油市场由于成品油调价没有兑现，贸易商对于后期调油</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">料价格能否继续走高的信心有所松动，报价多数报稳，个别继续跟涨。从盘面上看，沪油</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1109</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">合约承压于均线系统，下方</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">4850</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">一线存在支撑，预计短期期价运行于</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">4850-5000</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，建议区间操作。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">股指期货</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">瑞达期货：加息令市场承压，期指震荡格局不变<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">外盘指数<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">道琼斯<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>12393.90<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>74.17<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.60%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">纳斯达克<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2791.19<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>10.12<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.36%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1332.63<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>6.80<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.51%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">富时<SPAN lang=EN-US>100<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>6007.06<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>98.30<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1.66%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>7175.31<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>134.00<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1.90%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAC40<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>4041.74<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>52.56<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1.32%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US>C0MEX</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1452.5<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>23.6<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1.65%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">原油<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>108.34<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.40<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.37%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>75.856<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.022<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.03%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">小结：清明假期，欧美股市小幅走高。联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要表明美联储对经济状况的判断与过去大同小异。美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>ISM</SPAN>服务业指数不及预期，表明服务业增速放缓。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US>1. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">沪银行间拆借利率全面上涨似为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月加息预热；<SPAN lang=EN-US>CPI</SPAN>或再破五，加息预期增强；<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US>2. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">国务院督察组启程在即，主查地方楼市调控效果；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US>3. 3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">月公开市场现万亿回笼，八成资金将在二季度释放；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US>4. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">美数据好坏参半：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月工厂订单环比降<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.1%</SPAN>不及预期，<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月芝加哥<SPAN lang=EN-US>PMI</SPAN>为<SPAN lang=EN-US>70.6</SPAN>好于预期，周初请失业金人数<SPAN lang=EN-US>38.8</SPAN>万不及预期；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US>5. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">银行压力测试：爱尔兰银行另需<SPAN lang=EN-US>240</SPAN>亿欧元方可存活；<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US>6. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">债务堪忧，<SPAN lang=EN-US>IMF</SPAN>下调美日经济增长预期；惠誉下调对全球经济增长的预期<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US>7. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">欧盟财政问题，利比亚局势升级，推动油价大涨黄金新高。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">持仓分析<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="1" Month="4" Year="2011"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US>4</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日前</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US>20</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">名多头主力持单（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>19343</SPAN>手，空头主力持仓（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>24472</SPAN>手，净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>5129</SPAN>手，净空持仓减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>217</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">因市场继续受紧缩货币预期和假期避险的因素，多空双方采取减仓策略。值得注意的是，多头巨头华泰长城剧减<SPAN lang=EN-US>1108</SPAN>手，而空调<st1:PersonName w:st="on" ProductID="国泰">国泰</st1:PersonName>君安也大幅减持<SPAN lang=EN-US>737</SPAN>。持仓动向表明，多空分歧依旧，且未来走势存在较大不确定性，减持避险为先。结合假日期间基本面来看，短期期指以调整振荡为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">主力合约<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>上周五报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3276.4</SPAN>点，预计周三<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>合约运行区间在：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3310-3240</SPAN>点之间。如上方冲破<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3310 </SPAN>点可以小多，止损下设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点；如下方破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3240</SPAN>点，可以介入空单，止损上设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点。如在区间内窄幅震荡，可以高空低多的策略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">合约名称<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>强阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>强支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US>HS 300<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3330<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3300<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3230<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3200<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US>IF1104<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3340<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3310<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3240<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3210<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US>IF1105<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3350<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3320<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </
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