<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">金属产品</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">锌、铝<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜，伦锌遭受重挫，盘中连破<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日均线，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2245</SPAN>美元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.57%</SPAN>；伦铝明显下跌，回吐本周涨幅，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2322</SPAN>美元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.94%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>内外盘比价情况：锌内外比价最高<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.22</SPAN>，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.91</SPAN>，铝内外比价位于<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.97-7.15</SPAN>之间。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>世界金属统计局<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>全球铝市场<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-10</SPAN>月期间供应过剩<SPAN lang=EN-US>318,000</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2.</SPAN>国际铅锌研究小组<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>全球前<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月锌市供应过剩<SPAN lang=EN-US>21.1</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>18200-18300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>250</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>455-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>355</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>18150-18250</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>250</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>505-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>405</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>A00 </SPAN>铝报在<SPAN lang=EN-US>16050-16070</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>70</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>40-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>699750</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>吨，上海交易所锌期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>224104</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>403</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铝库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4293925</SPAN>吨，较上交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>10325</SPAN>吨，上海交易所铝期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>313098</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1044</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：基本面上，供求过剩的局面尚未改变。资金面上，沪铝主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单稍有缩减至<SPAN lang=EN-US>8000</SPAN>手以下；沪锌前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单增加至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>万手左右。技术显示，市场走势震荡偏弱，沪锌强于沪铝。操作建议：沪锌按计划离场者暂时观望；沪铝多单离场。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">铜</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">外盘：隔夜伦铜自高位</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">9245</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">大幅下挫</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.91%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">9066</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，目前铜价已跌破</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日均线，在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日均线处得以支撑，鉴于美元指数昨日大幅上涨，后期铜价还将继续下跌，下一支撑看至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8800.<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">消息方面：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">11</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月工业生产环比增加</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.4%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，预估为上升</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.3%,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月以来的最大。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">12</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月房屋建筑商信心持稳在历史低水准，再度证明美国楼市复苏路途艰难。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">现货方面：上海现铜报</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">67200-67500</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元，下跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">100</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，升水</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">50</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；内外比价为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7.47-7.46</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，继续处于低位震荡，表明内盘走势依旧较弱。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> <o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">库存：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">12</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">15</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">LME</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">铜库存增加</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7050</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">357950</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，注销仓单占库存比为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5.36%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，较昨日小幅减少，近期注销仓单大幅减少，暗示库存后期可能继续增加。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">观点总结：昨日伦铜高位回落，主要受美元上涨打压，此次美元上涨要引起我们的注意，从图形上来看，美元有望突破近期振荡整理平台，实现上涨。在伦铜各项利多因素逐渐淡去的关口，美元的上涨将对铜价造成重大压力，昨日伦铜持仓量大幅减少</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">万多张，对此我们要提高警惕，这表明资金在高位出现明显的获利了结，铜价或将展开一轮调整，操作上今日沪铜料低开至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">68000</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">附近，如跌破可尝试短空，目标位看至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">66000.<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">钢材</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">现货市场：</SPAN><FONT face="Times New Roman"><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="mm" SourceValue="8" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">8mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"> Q235</SPAN></FONT><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">高线上海报价</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4750</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，持平，</SPAN><FONT face="Times New Roman"><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="mm" SourceValue="20" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">20mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"> HRB400</SPAN></FONT><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">螺纹钢上海报价</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4850</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，持平</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">消息：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(1) </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">钢材冬储成本创历史新高</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(2) </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">今年河北省超额完成淘汰落后产能任务</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(3) </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">住建部国土部：加快推进住房保障体系建设</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(4) </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">印度</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">63.5%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">粉矿</SPAN><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="15" Month="12" Year="2010"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">12</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">15</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CIF</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">参考报价</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">173-175</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，持平</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">46306</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，减</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">596</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。线材仓单日报为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，持平。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">小结：周三</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">RB1105</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">合约冲高回落，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4800</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">上方仍有压力。基本面上，受宝钢对明年一月份钢铁产品提价</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">100-300</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨影响，业界预计，武钢、鞍钢等大型钢企也将跟进提价，现货报价的坚挺对期钢带来支撑，但股市及周边商品回落，亦使期钢高位承压。技术上，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">RB1105</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">合约</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">RSI</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">及</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">KD</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">指标显示有回调迹象。操作上建议，短线</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4700-4800</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">区间交易。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">黄金</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">外盘：隔夜黄金反弹失败，转为下跌，主要受美元大幅上涨打压，其中</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">COMEX12</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">黄金下跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.29%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1385.5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">盎司，目前金价再次试探</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1380</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">一线的支撑。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">如今日未能获得良好支撑，则金价有望延续回调。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">消息方面：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">11</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月工业生产环比增加</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.4%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，预估为上升</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.3%,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月以来的最大。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">12</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月房屋建筑商信心持稳在历史低水准，再度证明美国楼市复苏路途艰难。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3.12</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">15</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">SPDR</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">基金黄金持有量减少</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.6</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1286.1 9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">现货方面：上海黄金</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">9999</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">报</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">298.95</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">克，下跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2.05</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">克，跌幅为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.68% <o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">观点总结：昨日黄金反弹失败，转为下跌，主要受美元指数上涨打压，美元此次似有突破前期震荡整理平台，后期对金价影响较大。在欧债危机逐渐淡去，市场缺乏焦点的情况下，美元的上涨对商品的打压较重。今日沪金继续承压，低开后可尝试短空。止损设于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">300</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">一线</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">谷物<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：周三<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米期货下跌，受获利了结及美元走强打压。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、拉尼娜现象正威胁阿根廷大豆及玉米作物；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、国储最低收购价小麦交易会<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="15" Month="12" Year="2010"><SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>实<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>际成交<SPAN lang=EN-US>18.40</SPAN>万吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、浙江宁波出台采购东北粳稻补贴政策。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：由于产地烘干塔成本高，到港口无利润发货积极性差，锦州及鲅鱼圈港玉米收购价普遍调<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2020</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，略有反弹，收购量也随之增加，平舱价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2060-2070</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；广东港口低水分新玉米主流成<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>交价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2140</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，陈玉米<SPAN lang=EN-US>2165</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，市场进入新一轮采购周期，饲料企业采购积极性有所增加，当<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>地玉米价格有望止跌企稳；郑州强筋小麦出库价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2370</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持平；江西九江早稻收购价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2080</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，水分<SPAN lang=EN-US> ≤13.5%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存方面：玉米仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1038</SPAN>张，郑州强麦仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>5516</SPAN>张，早籼稻仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>6274</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：北方大雪及农民惜售带动玉米现货价格反弹，但短期政策压力犹存，操作上不可过分看高，后市关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>c1109</SPAN>合约在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2350</SPAN>一线压力，震荡思路对待；<SPAN lang=EN-US>WS1109</SPAN>合约上行动能不足，下方中长期均线支撑，短期或延续高位震荡；<SPAN lang=EN-US>ER1105</SPAN>合约下方<SPAN lang=EN-US>2300</SPAN>一线支撑较好，但上方空间受到限制，建议观望或震荡思路对待。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><BR>2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>由于市场方面预期印度出口食糖还不能满足全球食糖市场不断增长的需求，本周三<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>糖市原糖期货价格继续强劲上扬，这已经是<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>糖市连续第四个交易日上涨。当日<SPAN lang=EN-US>1103</SPAN>期约糖价上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>33</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>+1.1%</SPAN>），收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>31.11</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>期约糖价同时上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>36</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>+1.3%</SPAN>），以<SPAN lang=EN-US>28.07</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅报收。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、印度糖产量达到了<SPAN lang=EN-US>260</SPAN>万吨，同比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>21.5%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2</SPAN>、澳大利亚的原糖产量较<SPAN lang=EN-US>09-10</SPAN>制糖年的<SPAN lang=EN-US>452</SPAN>万吨将下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>21%</SPAN>，至<SPAN lang=EN-US>358</SPAN>万吨，该产量同样比今年<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月份预期的产量下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>21%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内现货小幅下调，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>6800</SPAN>（新糖）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>892</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1794</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内主产区天气：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>今天白天到晚上，桂东南和沿海地区小雨转阴天，我区其它地区阴转多云，其中桂东北局部地区有冰冻。南宁市：今天白天到晚上，多云转晴，东北风<SPAN lang=EN-US>2-3</SPAN>级，最高<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="10" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>10℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>，最低气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="4" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>4℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>技术上，郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约承压于<SPAN lang=EN-US>6700</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨及<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>日均线，<SPAN lang=EN-US>KDJ</SPAN>指标重新向下死叉，预计展开调整，中线可沽空。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><BR>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">大豆豆粕<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、哈尔滨国家粮食交易中心将于<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="17" Month="12" Year="2010"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>17</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>继续拍卖<SPAN lang=EN-US>2008</SPAN>年黑龙江省产大豆<SPAN lang=EN-US>19.1</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>外盘：美豆期价微涨，期价脱离盘中高点，交易商获利了结，减少风险敞口。美豆<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1296.5 +0.5<BR></SPAN>国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、黑龙江大豆现货受降雪影响，购销不旺，各地价格能在<SPAN lang=EN-US>372.-394</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>公斤，依品质不同价格不同。进口大豆港口分销价格能在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4100-4200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，港口库存依旧较大。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、豆粕现货报价比较平稳，各油厂小幅调整价格，沿海地区油厂主流价格区间在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300-3350</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，昨天成交价格多在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3250-3300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>盘面分析：大豆豆粕冲高回落，豆粕的走势明显偏弱，期价早盘震荡后快速走低，但收盘价格守住了<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨整数位，持仓继续增加。连豆同样走低，早盘期价一度冲高，创出近期高点，但随后快速下跌，收盘价格跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>4400</SPAN>处。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>从走势看，国内商品市场总体呈现出下跌走势，有色和化工跌幅较大，同时持仓继续增加，今日的下跌使得短期行情变的微妙。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>操作建议：盘面大幅下跌，反弹之势未能得到确认，同时较大的跌幅和增加的持仓打击了市场做多信心，短期操作更需谨慎。但是，今天行情走势并不能构成趋势多单离场条件，建议可继续持有，仍需轻仓。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR><BR>4<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期棉下跌，因消费者买盘减少和投资者抛售，棉花价格在跳涨至近一个月最高后出现短暂回调。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月棉花上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.52</SPAN>美分，收报每磅<SPAN lang=EN-US>142.14</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、一高级政府官员周二称，印度本作物年度棉花产量不太可能低于之前的预估，尽管近来南部主产区的大雨对一些作物造成破坏。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年我国对关税配额外进口一定数量的棉花实施滑准税，税率维持不变。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 3</SPAN>、<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="14" Month="12" Year="2010"><SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>14</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，受<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>棉花期货价格涨停的影响，进口棉中国主港报价大幅上涨，其中巴西棉的涨幅最大，较昨日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>800</SPAN>多元，来自其它国家的进口棉价格涨幅基本上都在<SPAN lang=EN-US>600</SPAN>元之上。到目前为止，印度的棉花出口限额是否增加尚无定论，是后期市场的一大不确定因素。据了解，一些国内纺织企业担心后期买不到足够的棉花，不得不进口棉花补充库存。另有一些国内纺织企业仍对印度棉花出口政策持观望态度，暂时没有进口棉花。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>27112</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上一交易日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>170</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>99</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>104</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>主产区天气：受较强冷空气扩散南下影响，未来三天，全国大部地区气温将普遍下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="8" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>8℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>，局地降温可达<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="10" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>10℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>以上；长江中下游及其以北地区伴有<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>～<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>级风。内蒙古东北部、黑龙江北部等地有小雪。受冷暖空气共同影响，西北地区东部、黄淮及其以南地区有大范围雨雪天气，江汉、江淮、江南大部等地有小到中雨转雨夹雪或雪。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：美联储<SPAN lang=EN-US>QE3</SPAN>期望落空促使美元反弹，美棉冲高回落；央行采取上调存款准备金率来抑制通胀，而市场普遍预期的加息并未兑现，短期政策压力得到一定释放，棉市出现补涨走势，但中期政策调控仍压制棉价上行空间；现货价格延续小幅上涨走势。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约震荡下跌，期价回测<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线支撑，上方<SPAN lang=EN-US>28000</SPAN>继续承压，延续震荡走势。操作上，短线交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">油脂<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：因交易商了结前期获利，不过出口需求利多及对美国燃料乙醇税收抵免政策的乐观预期限制市场跌幅，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月合约收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>54.2</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅；受海外需求疲软和原油价格下跌拖累，但对供应紧缩的担忧限制跌幅，<SPAN lang=EN-US>BMD</SPAN>毛棕榈油从近三年高位回撤，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月合约收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3669</SPAN>令吉<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息：国际方面，油世界称，阿根廷<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年初大豆产量料<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>为<SPAN lang=EN-US>5050</SPAN>万吨，低于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年初的<SPAN lang=EN-US>5440</SPAN>万吨。国内方面，<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="15" Month="12" Year="2010"><SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>四川粮油批发中心竞价销售植物油，计划销售菜油<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.34</SPAN>万吨，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>最低起拍价<SPAN lang=EN-US>9200</SPAN>元，成交良好；计划销售豆油<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.54</SPAN>万吨，起拍<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>价<SPAN lang=EN-US>9600</SPAN>，成交率偏低。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>现货：昨日油脂现货价格趋于震荡，沿海四级豆油约为<SPAN lang=EN-US> 9500-9800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；港口棕榈油报价集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9200-9500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；国<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>内四级菜油出厂价格处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>9700-10200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单：豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>5950</SPAN>张，较上一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>168</SPAN>张；棕榈油，<SPAN lang=EN-US> 0</SPAN>张；菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>5300</SPAN>张；均无变化。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：豆油站上万元关口之后，外盘开始出现冲高回<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>落态势，市场对于未来的市场行情依然有一定疑虑。在现货较<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>为滞涨、国家调控担忧仍在的情况下，不建议过分高看油脂价<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>格，就当前的情况来看，豆油万元附近价位轻仓短空。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center; tab-stops: 18.0pt" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">连塑<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、原料短缺仍困扰欧洲塑料加工业<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月份中国乙烯产量同比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>29.3%<BR> </SPAN>现货市场：今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格继续保持平稳。扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>11000</SPAN>。市场成交不活跃。东北亚乙烯报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1178——1180</SPAN>美元，东南亚乙烯报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1085——1087</SPAN>美元，均无涨跌。市场成交清淡。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>26728</SPAN>张，较昨日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日依托五日均线窄幅震荡，显示下方均线较为有力。基本面上，原油高位震荡，亚洲乙烯价格坚挺，国内乙烯减产令市场供应略微趋紧，这些因素对连塑形成一定的支撑。预计连塑料后市仍将延续反弹走势。操作上，建议投资者手中多单以<SPAN lang=EN-US>12000</SPAN>元为止损位继续谨慎持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><BR>2 PVC<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、红四方全力推进氯碱项目建设；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、甘肃银光化学工业集团<SPAN lang=EN-US>TDI</SPAN>公司<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>产量突破万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货价格走势不一，华东地区乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8500</SPAN>元，较昨日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>元，电石法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>则大涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>元，报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8100</SPAN>元。市场成交略有好转。电石市场全线回落，西北电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>4200</SPAN>元，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>元。华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>4600</SPAN>元，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>200</SPAN>元。市场成交一般。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>604</SPAN>张，较昨日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>410</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>依托五日均线窄幅震荡，终盘小阴报收，显示市场做多信心仍不充足。基本面上，原油高位运行及电石价格坚挺对<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>形成一定的成本支撑。且经过连续回落，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>也存在一定的反弹要求。预计<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>后市仍有望延续反弹。操作上，投资者手中多单以<SPAN lang=EN-US>8120</SPAN>点为止损位谨慎持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><BR>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">天胶<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="15" Month="12" Year="2010"><SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>受原油早盘大幅回落受获利盘打压的影响，<SPAN lang=EN-US>TOCOM</SPAN>基准<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月橡胶期货合约在触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>400.1</SPAN>日圆的纪录高位后开始进行修正。终盘报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>393.7</SPAN>日元，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.4</SPAN>日元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.61%</SPAN>。预计今日将考验五日均线的支撑。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>WTO</SPAN>裁定美国胜诉轮胎特保案、<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、马来西亚<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月天然橡胶国内消费量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1940</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：上海市场橡胶现货价格继续平稳运行。云南国标一号胶报<SPAN lang=EN-US>33500</SPAN>元，泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US>3#</SPAN>烟片胶报<SPAN lang=EN-US>32300</SPAN>元。均与昨日持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>亚洲各橡胶主产区天气预报如下：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>曼谷<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="31" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0">31℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="25" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>25℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>越南<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>河内<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>小到中雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="22" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0">22℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="9" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>9℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>胡志明市<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阴<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="32" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0">32℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="22" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>22℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>马来西亚<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>吉隆坡<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="32" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0">32℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="23" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>23℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>印尼<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雅加达<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="31" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0">31℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="25" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>25℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>42290</SPAN>吨，与昨日持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日沪胶弱势回调，但上方五日均线暂时为其提供了一定的支撑。多头格局并未改变。基本面上：原油高位运行，印度减产预期均对天胶价格形成一定的支撑。预计天然橡胶后市仍有望延续震荡上行的格局。操作上，投资者手中多单可以<SPAN lang=EN-US>34000</SPAN>一线为止损位继续谨慎持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>PTA<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油收涨，受美国原油库存意外下降提振。<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 1</SPAN>月原油期货上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.34</SPAN>美元，报收<SPAN lang=EN-US>88.62</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、聚酯切片维持震荡，优质半光商谈维持现款<SPAN lang=EN-US>11200</SPAN>或<SPAN lang=EN-US>11350</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨承兑，部分二线品牌或贸易商价格较低，现款<SPAN lang=EN-US>11100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、江浙地区主流工厂涤丝产销整体一般，多数工厂有<SPAN lang=EN-US>6-8</SPAN>成，少数工厂稍好能勉强做平或略超，局部地区较低为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4-5</SPAN>成。涤丝行情短期仍以平稳震荡为主基调。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>现货价格：华东<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场随着<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>期货的下滑，市场心态走差，报盘大致<SPAN lang=EN-US>9500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，实盘意向大致<SPAN lang=EN-US>9400-9450</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近水平，实盘稀少。亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场气氛转淡，台产保税货报盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1180</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，市场询盘增多，活跃度有所增强，实盘成交意向多在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1170</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，实单不多。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>21165</SPAN>张，与上一交易日持平，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>200</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：美联储未推出新的购债计划，美元趁机反弹，商品市场集体出现回落，国内紧缩预期仍限制商品上行空间；<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场报价下调，市场气氛出现回落。江浙市场涤丝报价平稳，操作维持出货为主，实际成交优惠多有存在，下游按需拿货，整体成交乏量；下游需求回落限制<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>上行空间。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA1105</SPAN>合约震荡下挫，期价未能突破<SPAN lang=EN-US>10000</SPAN>关口压制，短线回测<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线支撑，延续区间震荡走势。操作上，日内交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><BR>5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>日<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油期货收高，自盘初下跌后反弹，之前公布的数据显示美国原油库存录得八年内最大周度降幅。<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX1</SPAN>月原油期货收高<SPAN lang=EN-US>34</SPAN>美分或<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.4%</SPAN>至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>88.62</SPAN>美元，盘初一度跌至<SPAN lang=EN-US>86.83</SPAN>美分低点。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、据金凯讯的数据显示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月份中国最大的炼油商中国石化计划加工原油<SPAN lang=EN-US>1740</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>-1750</SPAN>万吨，或约<SPAN lang=EN-US>410</SPAN>万桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>天，日均炼油量比<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月份下降近<SPAN lang=EN-US>4%</SPAN>，主要是受装置检修的影响，而中国第二大炼油商中国石油计划加工原油约<SPAN lang=EN-US>1250</SPAN>万吨，或<SPAN lang=EN-US>296</SPAN>万桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>天，比上月增加近<SPAN lang=EN-US>1%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 2</SPAN>、美国能源资料协会（<SPAN lang=EN-US>EIA</SPAN>）数据显示，截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="10" Month="12" Year="2010"><SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>当周，美国原油库存下滑<SPAN lang=EN-US>990</SPAN>万桶，降幅远高于原本预估的<SPAN lang=EN-US>270</SPAN>万桶。美国原油和油品库存总量下滑至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2008</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月以来最低水准，部分是由于进口大幅下滑。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="15" Month="12" Year="2010"><SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>黄埔到岸价，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>519.49</SPAN>美元，到岸贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>10-11</SPAN>美元，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>380</SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>511.21</SPAN>美元。华南混调油最新交易估价：船用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>交易过驳价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4610-4620</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；库提价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4620-4630</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价持平，国产锅炉用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>交易价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4400-4450</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：受原油库存意外下降支撑，国际原油震荡回升。华东燃料油市场需求仍较清淡，价格出现松动；山东燃料油市场利空因素逐渐占据上风，终端持币观望，炼厂出货压力渐增，后市看跌。当前现货需求较为疲弱仍抑制燃料油的上行空间。沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US>1103</SPAN>合约震荡收跌，期价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>5000</SPAN>关口依旧承压，短线重新回测<SPAN lang=EN-US>4800</SPAN>支撑，延续高位震荡走势。操作上，震荡思路。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">股指期货</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">瑞达期货：期指多空交织，维持弱势震荡<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>道琼斯<SPAN lang=EN-US> 11457.47 -19.07 -0.17% <BR></SPAN>纳斯达克<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2617.22 -10.50 -0.40% <BR></SPAN>标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500 1235.23 -6.36 -0.51%<BR></SPAN>富时<SPAN lang=EN-US>100 5882.18 -9.03 -0.15% <BR></SPAN>德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX 7016.37 -11.03 -0.16%<BR></SPAN>法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAC40 3880.19 -22.68 -0.58%<BR>C0MEX</SPAN>黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1385.7 -18.1 -1.29%<BR>NYMEX</SPAN>原油<SPAN lang=EN-US> 88.62 0.34 0.39%<BR></SPAN>美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 80.191 0.666 0.84%<BR></SPAN>小结<SPAN lang=EN-US>: </SPAN>周三美国股市收低。尽管美国本土经济数据好转，但欧元区债务危机仍然使投资者感到担忧。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1. </SPAN>央票今日地量发行<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>本周资金仍小幅投放；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2</SPAN>．全年工业增加值料增<SPAN lang=EN-US>15.5%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3. </SPAN>全国物价局长会议：稳物价为明年首要任务；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>4. </SPAN>决策层会商明年信贷指标<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>或为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.5</SPAN>万亿；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>5. </SPAN>日本制造业数据恶化<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>通缩或持续<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>年；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>6</SPAN>．日本制造业数据恶化<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>通缩或持续<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>持仓分析：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名多头主力持单<SPAN lang=EN-US>12871</SPAN>手，空头主力持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>15725</SPAN>手，净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>2854</SPAN>手，净空持仓增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>162</SPAN>手。其中：前<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>名主力机构净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>4166</SPAN>手，空头持仓维持在高位，但空头优势较上一交易日有所增强。从日内盘中持仓动向看，日内持仓相对稳定。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>股指期货主力合约<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1101</SPAN>收盘报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3283</SPAN>点，预计周四<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1101</SPAN>的运行区间在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3250-3330</SPAN>之间，如上方冲破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3330</SPAN>点可以小多，止损下设<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>个点；如下方破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3250</SPAN>可以介入空单，止损上设<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>个点。如在区间内窄幅震荡，可以高空低多的策略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>合约名称<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>HS 300 3315 3285 3210 3175<BR>IF1012 3325 3295 3220 3185<BR>IF1101 3380 3330 3250 3200<BR>IF1103 3440 3395 3300 3240<BR>IF1106 3495 3450 3355 dddddddddddddd
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