<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1 <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">油脂<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>豆类市场收低及原油下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>2%</SPAN>压制，美豆油在隔<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>夜电子盘刷新<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>年高点之后走跌，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月合约收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>48.24</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/ </SPAN>磅；因交易商押注强劲的植物油需求将继续拉动中国大豆压榨<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>BMD</SPAN>棕榈油触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>26</SPAN>个月高点<SPAN lang=EN-US>.</SPAN>升越<SPAN lang=EN-US>3000</SPAN>令吉<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨重要关口，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1</SPAN>月合约收涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>令吉于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2990</SPAN>令吉<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息：国际方面，船运调查机构<SPAN lang=EN-US>SGS</SPAN>称，马来西亚<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-20 </SPAN>日棕榈油出口增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>5.4%</SPAN>，至<SPAN lang=EN-US>929473</SPAN>吨。国内方面，统计局公布<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>数据显示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月精制食用植物油产量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>401</SPAN>万吨，同比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>40%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1-9</SPAN>月总产量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2767</SPAN>万吨，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>同比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>17.4%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>现货：昨日油脂现货价格有所提升，沿海四级豆油约为<SPAN lang=EN-US> 9000-9300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；港口棕榈油报价集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US>8550-8700</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；国<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>内四级菜油出厂价格处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>9300-9800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单：豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>1328</SPAN>张，较上一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>200</SPAN>张；棕榈油，<SPAN lang=EN-US> 0</SPAN>张；菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>5800</SPAN>张；均无变化。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：外盘的屡创新高极大提振了国内油脂的表现，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>在市场看涨后市情绪高涨的情况下，继续保持中长线多头思路<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>，做好仓位管理，回调适量补仓。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><BR>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">谷物<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：由于美农业部报告的玉米周出口销售数据利空加上美元走强打压，周四<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米期货市场大幅<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>收低。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、优质粮源紧俏湖南长沙玉米价格坚挺；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、安徽最低价小麦收购数量同比减<SPAN lang=EN-US>31.3%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>供应增多，江苏无锡稻米平稳运行。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：黑龙江玉米主产区湿玉米主流收购价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.62-0.70</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>斤，水份在<SPAN lang=EN-US>25%-30%</SPAN>之间；港口方面<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>，受到台风<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>鲶鱼<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>登陆的影响，一些大船不能靠港，广东部门港口价格出现上涨，尤其优质猪料玉米价<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>格目前已经出现<SPAN lang=EN-US>2110-2135</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，当前港内库存约<SPAN lang=EN-US>32-33</SPAN>万吨左右。优质玉米所占比重很小；河南沈丘直属<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>库优质麦郑<SPAN lang=EN-US>9023</SPAN>出库价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；江西九江早稻收购价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，水分<SPAN lang=EN-US>≤13.5%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存方面：玉米仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>990</SPAN>张，郑州强麦仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>5096</SPAN>张，早籼稻仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>3737</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：<SPAN lang=EN-US>c1105</SPAN>合约冲高回落，短期期价或略有调整，操作上逢低买入为主；<SPAN lang=EN-US>WS1105</SPAN>合约技术形态保持良好，短期维持震荡偏强思路；空头主力资金介入，<SPAN lang=EN-US>ER1105</SPAN>合约期价面临向下调整，建议多头资金择机出场，空头尝试少量介入，注意风险控制。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">粕豆<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、美豆周周四下调，但盘面继续创出新高。目前美豆在高位有获利平仓的压力，期价也有高位调整的需要，但目前看长期涨势并未停止。美豆<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1201.5 -10.5</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2</SPAN>、巴西大豆正处于播种期，主产区等待降雨出现，目前的播种进度略有偏低；美农业部大豆销售报告显示美豆当周销售量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>201.7</SPAN>万吨，远高于市场此前预估的<SPAN lang=EN-US>115-135</SPAN>万吨的水平，显示美豆的出口需求依旧强劲。。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3</SPAN>、、黑龙江大豆收购价格稳中有升，目前油厂和贸易商的收购价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.88</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。国储收购价格基本确定，在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.9</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>斤。豆粕现货价格上涨，部分地区价格上涨幅度较大。河南郑州有油厂价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3700</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较昨天上涨了<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。山东沿海地区价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3650-3700</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，价格上涨了<SPAN lang=EN-US>70-120</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，江苏地区价格上涨了<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，当地价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3620</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR>4</SPAN>、从近几日的走势看，国内盘面稍弱于外盘，虽然整体的的上涨态势未变，但短期调整的可能性也增大。操作上建议中长线的仍持看多思路，遇调整逐步加仓。短线近期宜观望，规避调整风险。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><BR>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>受巴西港口食糖运输加快的影响，在部分投资者获利了结的压力下，周四<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>糖市原糖期货价格大幅回落。<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>当日<SPAN lang=EN-US>1103</SPAN>期约糖价下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>46</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>+1.6%</SPAN>），收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>28.35</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅，盘中<SPAN lang=EN-US>1103</SPAN>期约糖价一度冲击了<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>日以来<SPAN lang=EN-US>29.23</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅的最高点；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>期约糖价同时下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>32</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>-1.2%</SPAN>），以<SPAN lang=EN-US>25.74</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅报收。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、印度食糖出口量将从<SPAN lang=EN-US>09-10</SPAN>制糖年的<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>万吨猛增至<SPAN lang=EN-US>300</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月份云南外运食糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>12.24</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>同比减<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内现货小幅上调，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>6470</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1983</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>600</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内主产区天气：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>今天白天到晚上，全区晴到多云。南宁市：今天白天到晚上，多云<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>东北风<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-2</SPAN>级，最高气温<SPAN lang=EN-US>29℃</SPAN>，最低气温<SPAN lang=EN-US>20℃</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>最低气温<SPAN lang=EN-US>19℃</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>技术上，郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约受多头获利回吐影响而冲高回落，<SPAN lang=EN-US>6500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨以上宜平多，预计短期可能出现回落修正行情。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">郑棉</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">外盘走势：虽然美元上扬且其他大宗商品价格下挫；但受交易商、轧棉商及投机者买盘提振，期棉价格周四</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">21</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">收升。洲际交易所</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(ICE)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">基准</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">12</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月期棉价格</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">21</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日收盘上涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.45</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美分，至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.1571</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">磅。盘中交投区间为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.1426</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">磅至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.176</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">磅。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">消息面：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">、印度棉花到货数量同比降</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">％</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">但可能很快好转；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">、籽棉价格高企</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">衡水停收企业增多。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">现货方面：棉花指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">328</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">价格为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">24941</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，较上一交易日上涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">252</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">张，有效预报为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。（每张对应棉花</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">20</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨）。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">主产区天气：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">22</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">08</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">时至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">23</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">08</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">时，新疆大部、华北西北部、陕西北部等地有小到中雨（雪）或雨夹雪；云南西部、广东中东部、江西东部、福建、浙江中南部和东部以及台湾等地有小到中雨或阵雨，并伴有短时雷雨大风等强对流天气。新疆北部有</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">6</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">级风，新疆山口地区风力可达</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">级。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">观点总结：受近期棉花供应紧张及昨日美棉强势封涨停板的影响，今日郑棉大幅高开，盘中虽受获利抛盘影响未能封死涨停，但仍以全天次高价报收，显示其短期仍有上冲动能。基本面上，国内棉市供需偏紧，价格坚挺，棉籽收购价格居高不下，新一轮冷空气对新疆的新棉采摘造成不利影响等消息均对棉花形成有力的支撑。预计短期内棉花仍将维持强势格局。操作上，逢大幅冲高多单减仓，回落则短多继续介入。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">金属产品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>8mm Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4320</SPAN>，持平，<SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4440</SPAN>，持平<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>(1) </SPAN>最强冷空气来袭<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>煤炭产业链提前异动<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) </SPAN>工信部：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-9</SPAN>月工业增速<SPAN lang=EN-US>16.3</SPAN>％全年将超<SPAN lang=EN-US>13</SPAN>％<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) 9</SPAN>月我国粗钢产量<SPAN lang=EN-US>4795</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>创年内新低<SPAN lang=EN-US>(4) </SPAN>印度粉矿<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>21</SPAN>日<SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>160-162</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>42499</SPAN>，减<SPAN lang=EN-US>4794</SPAN>。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>小结：周四<SPAN lang=EN-US>RB1105</SPAN>合约承压于<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日线，从目前基本面看央行意外加息，整个市场的成交不尽人意，商家无奈之余只有选择了小幅下跌，但是由于资源的分散，大部分商家的资源都不是很多，所以商家价格下跌的意愿都不是很强。技术上期价运行于均线下方，上方均线压力较大，<SPAN lang=EN-US>KD</SPAN>指标方向向下。操作上建议依托上方均线持空单，关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>4400</SPAN>关口支撑力度。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2 <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜黄金大幅下挫，延续近期回落整理走势，其中<SPAN lang=EN-US>COMEX12</SPAN>月黄金自<SPAN lang=EN-US>1349</SPAN>下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>23.22</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1325.78</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>盎司。目前金价下破<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线，仅站于<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>日均线之上，上方抛压较重。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>日当周初申请失业金人数降至<SPAN lang=EN-US>45.2</SPAN>万人，预估为<SPAN lang=EN-US>45.5</SPAN>万人。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月领先指标为增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.3%</SPAN>，预估为增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.3%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.10</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>21</SPAN>日<SPAN lang=EN-US>SPDR</SPAN>基金黄金持有量减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.9</SPAN>吨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1298.27</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US>9999</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>284.5</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.98</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，跌幅为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.38% <BR></SPAN>观点总结：本周金价高位获利盘出局及美元汇率是影响金价走势的主要原因，本周末重要会议之前，美元走势反复，另外本周美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFTC</SPAN>持仓表明美元指数跌势有望放缓，从而使得金价开启下波上涨行情前，展开震荡整理。不过金价继续上涨的动能依旧存在，通胀引发的投资需求和印度对实物黄金需求增加始终有望支撑金价保持较高位置，并继续冲高。本周<SPAN lang=EN-US>SPDR</SPAN>基金高位连续四天减少，表明其在高位获利了结，短期内建议多仓平仓出局，另外下方关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>1300-1320</SPAN>区间的支撑，待价格企稳后，金价仍有可能向<SPAN lang=EN-US>1400</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>盎司发起冲击。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">锌、铝交易提示<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：隔夜，伦锌冲高回落，盘中创出近半年新高，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2451</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.16%</SPAN>；伦铝由涨转跌，期价重回<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线之下，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2342</SPAN>美元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.89%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">内外盘比价情况：锌内外比价最高<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.2</SPAN>，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.91</SPAN>，铝内外比价位于<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.8-6.97</SPAN>之间。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>国家统计局公布<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月锌铝产量数据<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2.</SPAN>央行：通货膨胀等风险将显著上升<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：上海现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>18850-18950</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>710-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>610</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>18800-18900</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>760-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>660</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>A00 </SPAN>铝报在<SPAN lang=EN-US>16020-16060</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>110</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>70</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>605775</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>650</SPAN>吨，上海交易所锌期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>159170</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>703</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铝库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4325125</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>4700</SPAN>吨，上海交易所铝期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>362445</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1564</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：从基本面看，<SPAN lang=EN-US>WBMS</SPAN>数据显示，全球铝供求过剩的局面加剧，而锌的供求过剩量有所减少。同时，中国国家统计局数据显示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月国内锌产量环比大幅增加，铝产量环比继续下降，锌铝消息面多空交织。资金面上，沪锌、沪铝炒作资金保持平稳，前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净持仓变化不大。技术显示，沪锌偏强而沪铝偏弱。操作建议：沪锌维持逢低买入思路；沪铝日内交易或观望。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铜<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：昨日伦铜再次冲高回落，自高点<SPAN lang=EN-US>8455</SPAN>下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>161</SPAN>点至<SPAN lang=EN-US>8294</SPAN>，日收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>K</SPAN>线上影线较长，表明上方抛压较重，日跌幅为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.59%</SPAN>，本周铜价于<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日均线处反复运行，后期关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>8300</SPAN>的支撑。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>日当周初申请失业金人数降至<SPAN lang=EN-US>45.2</SPAN>万人，预估为<SPAN lang=EN-US>45.5</SPAN>万人。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月领先指标为增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.3%</SPAN>，预估为增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.3%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：上海现铜报<SPAN lang=EN-US>62450-62800</SPAN>元，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>350</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，现货平水铜贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>125</SPAN>，内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.54-7.55</SPAN>，比价小幅走低，表明内盘跟涨力度不够。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铜库存减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>750</SPAN>吨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>370000</SPAN>吨，注销仓单占库存比为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.7%</SPAN>，较昨日大幅增加，据历史数据显示，注销仓单占比在<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>之下的话，伦铜库存增加的可能性较大，目前的水平表明库存还将有减少的空间。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：昨日伦铜冲高回落，上方抛压较重，近三个交易日伦铜持仓大幅减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>10568</SPAN>手，表明高位有获利了结盘出来。库存方面，昨日库存减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>700</SPAN>吨，注销仓单的表现继续暗示后期库存还有减少的空间，这在一定程度上支撑着铜价，鉴于以上分析铜价短期料继续维持震荡走势，建议投资者以观望为主，预计铜价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>61500-63500</SPAN>区间震荡，若收盘下破<SPAN lang=EN-US>61500</SPAN>，可小量空单介入。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">天然橡胶<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>10</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>21</SPAN>日，美元汇率在震荡中反弹，国际油价上涨后再跌，约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻油<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月期货结算价每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>80.56</SPAN>美元，比前一交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.98</SPAN>美元，交易区间<SPAN lang=EN-US>80.09-82.70</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>TOCOM</SPAN>橡胶市场持续高开低走，重心向下，整体技术面上呈现调整行情，市场活跃度明显减弱，<SPAN lang=EN-US>340</SPAN>高低仍不可逾越，今日早间报开<SPAN lang=EN-US>334.4</SPAN>日圆<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>千克，低走。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>中国<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月轮胎产量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>6818</SPAN>万条，同比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>17%<BR></SPAN>全球车用树脂及橡胶市场继续快增<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>上期所期货库存<SPAN lang=EN-US>26500</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>7000</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>上海期货交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>RU1103</SPAN>成交及持仓前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>总排名，持买单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>54799</SPAN>手，增持<SPAN lang=EN-US>519</SPAN>手；持卖单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>46405</SPAN>手，减持<SPAN lang=EN-US>16090</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>RU1105</SPAN>成交及持仓前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>总排名，持买单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>39931</SPAN>手，增持<SPAN lang=EN-US>18079</SPAN>手；持卖单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>31695</SPAN>手，增持<SPAN lang=EN-US>11448</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>中橡网<SPAN lang=EN-US>20#</SPAN>标胶成交均价<SPAN lang=EN-US>29000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>10#</SPAN>标胶成交均价<SPAN lang=EN-US>29341</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，子午轮胎胶成交均价<SPAN lang=EN-US>29549</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>天然橡胶现货市场观望气氛较重，今日跟期价小幅回调，成交情况暂无起色。国产标一市场主流报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>30200-30700</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨之间；越南芒街<SPAN lang=EN-US>3L</SPAN>主流参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>26700</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨（无票）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>近期中橡网协会在京召开的轮胎企业座谈会，企业纷纷要求国储抛储以平衡橡胶市场，消息面偏于利空，但根据前次抛储经历，抛储前仍有一波拉涨，并且<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年橡胶供应紧缺状况不曾缓解。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>天气方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>强台风<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>鲇鱼<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>转入广东地区，对海南影响减少，近期转为多云天气，气温保持<SPAN lang=EN-US>23-28?/SPAN>，风力<SPAN lang=EN-US>4-5</SPAN>级。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：天然橡胶现货市场进过一轮疯狂拉涨之后，逐步恢复平静，但沪胶市场近期换月，多空资金相互筹备筹码，目前不分上下，进入了宽幅震荡时期，建议投资者短线日内操作为主，关注前期低点附近支撑，三万以下胶价暂难出现。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">燃料油<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">10</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">月<SPAN lang=EN-US>21</SPAN>日，美元汇率在震荡中反弹，国际油价上涨后再跌，约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻油<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月期货结算价每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>80.56</SPAN>美元，比前一交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.98</SPAN>美元，交易区间<SPAN lang=EN-US>80.09-82.70</SPAN>美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">美国劳工部周四公布的数据表示，截止<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>日当周美国首次申请失业救济人数减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.3</SPAN>万人，但是美国劳工部对前一周申请失业救济人数上修了<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.3</SPAN>万人，部分抵消了上周人数的下降。。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">中国已取消燃油零售价上调计划<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">统计局：中国<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月原油产量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1,719</SPAN>万吨，同比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>9%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-tab-count: 1"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">上期所期货库存<SPAN lang=EN-US>285900</SPAN>吨，持平<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">燃料油现货市场需求持续疲弱，原油高起高落，个别商家对后市看法不一，报价涨跌互现，但整体来看趋稳为主。华南混调油最新交易估价：船用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>交易过驳价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4440-4450</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；库提价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4450-4460</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：成品油调价迟迟难以兑现，利好消化大半，燃油现货市场以稳为主，沪燃主力合约<SPAN lang=EN-US>1101</SPAN>短期窄幅震荡整理为主，建议投资者低位多单谨慎持有观望或日内交易为主<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3 PTA<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日江浙涤丝行情产销维持稳定；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-9</SPAN>月份，柬埔寨的服装出口上升了<SPAN lang=EN-US>17%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货价格：华东上午华东<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场气氛略有回升，现货报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>8400-8450</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨现款，买家询盘增加，主流商谈则在<SPAN lang=EN-US>8350-8400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近展开，实盘稀少。亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场气氛略升，市场台产保税货报盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>1050</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，买方询盘增加，预计商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1040-1045</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。韩产船货报盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1030</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1025</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，实盘稀少。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>18763</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1585</SPAN>张，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1000</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：受原油大幅反弹的影响，今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>同步高开。但盘中力反弹不够，且前期获利抛盘众多也对其上行造成一定的压力。但短期通胀预期强烈，且下游聚酯市场报价坚挺。预计<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>经短暂整理后，仍有望延续上行走势。操作上，回落适当短多介入。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>PVC<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、北京房地产贷款增速连续<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月回落；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、纯碱两月内大涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>50% </SPAN>四季度仍将强势上行。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货市场保持平稳，上海氯碱报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8450</SPAN>元（周边送到价），河南宇航<SPAN lang=EN-US>SG3-5</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8250</SPAN>元（当地出厂价），均与上一交易日持平。市场成交清淡，观望气氛较为浓厚。电石价格相对平稳。西北电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3450</SPAN>—<SPAN lang=EN-US>3680</SPAN>元，华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3950</SPAN>—<SPAN lang=EN-US>4050</SPAN>元，与昨日持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3741</SPAN>张，与上一交易日持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：昨日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>高开震荡，上方均线对以其构成较大的压力，显示市场上多空分岐较大。短期难以大幅冲高。基本面上，随着北方天气转冷，部分制品企业开工有所减少，需求趋弱；供应面随着一系列扩产项目投放，后续压力有所加大。但国内通胀预期强烈，且<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>上游原料及现货价格坚挺、原料供应减少对<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>形成一定的支撑。且经连续大幅调整，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>也积蓄了一定的反弹动能，预计后市<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>有望冲击<SPAN lang=EN-US>7900</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>7930</SPAN>一线的重压力位。。操作上，投资者可暂以日内交易为主，轻仓观望，等待其突破后再顺势介入。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">5<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">连塑<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、中国塑木行业前景广阔；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、天茂集团拟<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>亿投建丙烯工程。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：今日现货价格继续平稳运行。扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>10700</SPAN>元，与上一交易日持平。加息增加了市场不稳定性因素，多数贸易商将采取“低库存<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>少贸进”的操作方式，抑制后期价格的回复，但在外盘高位等支撑因素下，短期价格暂不具备大幅下跌动能。亚洲乙烯价格相对平稳，东北亚报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1123</SPAN>——<SPAN lang=EN-US>1125</SPAN>美元，东南亚报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1085</SPAN>——<SPAN lang=EN-US>1087</SPAN>美元，均与上一交易日持平，台湾购买力因台塑装置重启而快速减弱。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存仓单；交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>21495</SPAN>张，与上一交易日持平<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：昨日连塑高开震荡，盘中多头试探性冲击上方均线，但未能成功。显示市场多头信心仍有待回强。基本面上，原油暴跌急涨令市场分岐加重，国内通胀预期强烈，十月份华北农膜需求旺季又拉动<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>的需求对其价格产生一定的支撑。预计今日连塑将冲击<SPAN lang=EN-US>11300</SPAN>——<SPAN lang=EN-US>11310</SPAN>的压力位。操作上，投资者手中多单可继续谨慎持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">宏观股指<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">股指早盘<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>瑞达期货：基差过大，期指或短暂回调<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘指数 收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>道琼斯指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 11146.57 38.60 0.35% <BR></SPAN>纳斯达克指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2459.67 2.28 0.09% <BR></SPAN>标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500</SPAN>指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1180.26 2.09 0.18%<BR></SPAN>富时<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 5757.86 28.93 0.50% <BR></SPAN>德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX</SPAN>指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 6611.01 86.46 1.33% <BR></SPAN>法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAC40</SPAN>指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3878.27 50.12 1.31% <BR>C0MEX</SPAN>黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1326.60 1.00 0.08%<BR>NYMEX</SPAN>原油<SPAN lang=EN-US> 80.88 0.32 0.40%<BR></SPAN>美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 77.45 0.32 0.41%<BR><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1. </SPAN>三季度经济数据昨日公布：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>季度<SPAN lang=EN-US>GDP</SPAN>同比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>10.6%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>季度<SPAN lang=EN-US>CPI</SPAN>同比上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.9%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月份<SPAN lang=EN-US>CPI</SPAN>同比上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.6%</SPAN>环比上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.6%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>季度<SPAN lang=EN-US>PPI</SPAN>同比上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US> 5.5%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月份<SPAN lang=EN-US>PPI</SPAN>同比上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.3% </SPAN>环比上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.6%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>9</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>PMI</SPAN>升至<SPAN lang=EN-US>53.8%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>人民币贷款前三季度增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.30</SPAN>万亿元，<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月份增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>5955</SPAN>亿元；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>9</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>70</SPAN>个大中城市房价同比上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>9.1%</SPAN>，国房地产开发景气指数为<SPAN lang=EN-US>103.52</SPAN>，回落<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.59</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>受汇率影响，<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月顺差<SPAN lang=EN-US>168.8</SPAN>亿美元，降至<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>个月新低；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>前<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>个月工业增加值同比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>16.3%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>数据宣示：经济前景向好。控制通货膨胀成为左右未来政策重点。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2. </SPAN>周小川：资产价格泡沫与不良贷款等风险将显著上升；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3. </SPAN>发改委：节能环保等七领域成新兴产业发展重点；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>4. </SPAN>证监会限制再融资补充流动资金和偿还银行贷款，并要求详披实施方式；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>5. 13</SPAN>家上市券商三季度净利<SPAN lang=EN-US>80</SPAN>亿元，四季度业绩值得期待；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>6. G20</SPAN>财长和央行行长会议今召开，汇率激辩预演，停止货币战或将成共识；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>7. </SPAN>印俄德三国反对美国稳定外汇市场计划；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>8. </SPAN>美元汇率反弹引发国际油价回落，黄金期货大跌<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>收<SPAN lang=EN-US>1325.6</SPAN>美元；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>持仓分析：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名主力多方持单<SPAN lang=EN-US>21550</SPAN>，空方持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>24069</SPAN>，净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>1857</SPAN>。其中：前<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>名主力机构多方持单<SPAN lang=EN-US>9681</SPAN>，日内建仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>869</SPAN>；空方持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>16087</SPAN>，日内增仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>1772</SPAN>，净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>6406</SPAN>，净空增减变动<SPAN lang=EN-US>903</SPAN>。多空力量对比而言，空方优势进一步显著。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>值得注意的是：持仓最大的变化是广发期货巨仓增加空仓；华泰长城多空转换频繁；券商背景期货公司优势明显，且以做空为主；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>整体而言，市场分歧加剧，空方持仓维持较高位。主力机构持仓动向表明：一是，期指乐观情绪蔓延，但回调整理承压也在增加，且上涨不确定因素逐渐积累；二是，期指强势于现指走势，大幅升水，主力持空套利操作明显。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>沪深<SPAN lang=EN-US>300</SPAN>指数：股指昨日收盘位于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日均线之上，成交量仍保持较高水平，短期内市场或将继续维持整理格局。支撑在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3356</SPAN>点，压力在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3425</SPAN>点，<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>IF1011:</SPAN>主力合约今日或将回调，支撑在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3375</SPAN>点，压力在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3500</SPAN>点。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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