| <DIV class=articleContent id=articleBody> <P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">罗杰斯又睇错市 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p> <P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">罗杰斯又一次睇错市，美元未真正转弱，金价亦未真正转强。如果佢响接受彭博新闻访问时真系抛出手上美元买金，就系又一次高价接金！货币 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">Rallies <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">通常以年或月计，而非以日计。根据 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">Bespoke Investment Group <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">统计，美元反弹平均可维持四百八十九天。换言之，今年 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">7 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">月开始嘅美元反弹仍有好一段日子上升，虽然 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">12 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">月份美元减息，但其他货币一样须减息。 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">12 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">月 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">15 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">、 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">16 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">日系美元今年最后一次减息，英镑估计亦将减息半厘，而欧罗在明年年中前仍不断减息，澳元今天则减息 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">厘。从呢点睇，美元强势最低限度可维持到 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2009 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">年年中。 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p> <P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">贝南奇同殊仔都话会努力对付经济衰退，前者只得番半粒子弹（本月中减息半厘），后者早已成为跛脚鸭政府。哈佛教授 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">Jeffsey Frankel <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">系美国国家经济研究局成员，佢认为前景暗淡，衰退才啱啱开始。战后最长嘅两次衰退期，第一个在 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1975 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">年 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">3 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">月结束，第二个在 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1982 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">年 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">11 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">月，都长达十六个月。战前最长嘅一次衰退期系 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1929 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">年 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">8 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">月至 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1933 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">年 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">3 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">月，共四十三个月。佢唔认为美国经济可于明年年中复苏（根据 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">11 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">月份华尔街所作嘅调查，唔少分析员认为明年第一季经济可复苏，依家改口为第二季），理由系前扩张期共七十三个月，于 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2007 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">年 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">12 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">月结束，乃战后最短嘅繁荣期，未来衰退期会较长。美国采购管理协会（ <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">Institute for Supply Management, ISM <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">） <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">11 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">月份新订单指数见 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">27.9 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">（ <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">10 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">月份 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">32.2 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">）；过去六十年只有三次低于 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">30 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">，每次都系处于大衰退。 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p> <P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">10 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">月份美国新屋销售少 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">5.3 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">％或年率四十三万三千间，为十七年内销量最差嘅一个月；售价下跌 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">7 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">％，至 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">218000 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">美元。三十年期供楼利率由上周嘅 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">6.3 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">厘回落到本周嘅 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">5.7 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">厘。今年 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">10 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">月份 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">CPI <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">较 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2000 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">年 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">月份高 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">30 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">％，但楼价较 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2000 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">年 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">月高出 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">63 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">％，估计未来楼价仍将下跌 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">20 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">％或以上。 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p> <P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">根据美国全国零售业联会数字，上周五、六、日共有一亿七千二百万人购物（部分系网上购物），较去年同期嘅一亿四千七百万人多 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">17 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">％；但消费金额只升 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">3 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">％，为 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">106 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">亿美元，其中唔少系大电视，情况都几令人担心。此乃周一美股大跌嘅部分理由，结束由 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">11 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">月 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">20 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">日起嘅技术反弹；呢段日子道指上升 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">17 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">％，罗素二千指数升 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">23 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">％。 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p> <P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1871 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">至 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1995 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">年道指平均 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">P/E <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">十三点九一倍，只有 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1995 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">到 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2007 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">年平均 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">P/E <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">才高达二十四点九八倍，现水平 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">P/E <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">十七点三倍（历史性纯利计）。如重返 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1871 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">至 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1995 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">年，平均 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">P/E <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">水平，未来跌幅唔算大；但如重返三大超级熊市嘅 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">P/E <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">，未来跌幅仍十分大。 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p> <P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">花旗估计，标普五百指数年底可见 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">800 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">点水平。美林估计股市仍需一年才见底、经济需两年、房地产需三年，估计标普五百指数在 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">660 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">点才见底。 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">Hussmen <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">认为呢次熊市需较长时间才完成，未来平均每四个月便有一次反弹，理由系太多人相信「 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">The worst is over <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">」。股市通常在衰退结束前五个月见底。 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">BNP <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">意见系，一旦衰退确认，股市在首六个月仍跌 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">14 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">％，未来衰退日子愈长，股市回落幅度愈大。由 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1962 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">至 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2006 <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">年标普五百指数习惯在衰退开始前两个月便回落；响过去六个衰退结束前，股市则先三至六个月回升。 <P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin"> <P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #4f4f4f; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin"> </DIV> |
