| 有一种安全的方式，以住房贷款证券化。 By George Soros 由乔治索罗斯 The American system of mortgage financing is broken and needs a total overhaul.美国系统的按揭资金被打破，需要有一个彻底的改革。 Until there is a raealistic prospect of stabilizing housing prices, the value of mortgage-related securities will erode and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's efforts will come to naught.直到有一个raealistic前景稳定住房价格，抵押相关的证券将削弱和财政部长保尔森的努力将是徒劳的。 There are four fundamental problems with our current system of mortgage financing.有四个基本问题与我们的现行制度的按揭资金。 First, the business model of Government Sponsored Entities (GSEs) in which profits accrue to the private sector but risks are underwritten by the public has proven unworkable.首先，商业模式的政府赞助实体（ GSEs ） ，其中的利润累积到私营部门，但承保的风险是由公营已被证明行不通的。 It would be a grave mistake to preserve the GSEs in anything resembling their current form.这将是一个严重的错误，以维护GSEs在任何类似其目前的形式。 Second, the American style of mortgage securitization is rife with conflicts where entities that originate, securitize and service mortgages are generally not the same as those that invest in mortgage securities.其次，美国式的抵押贷款证券化充满了冲突，源于实体，证券化和抵押贷款服务一般是不一样的那些投资于按揭证券。 As a result, the incentives to originate sound mortgages and to service them well are inadequate.因此，奖励源于健全的抵押贷款和服务好是不够的。 No wonder that the quality of mortgages degenerated so rapidly.难怪抵押贷款质量的恶化如此迅速。 Third, mortgage-backed securitizations, which were meant to reduce risk by creating geographically diversified pools of mortgages, actually increased risk by creating complex capital structures that impede the modification of mortgages in the case of default.第三，住房抵押贷款证券化，这是为了降低风险，创造多元化地理位置泳池的抵押贷款，实际上增加了风险，创造复杂的资本结构，阻碍修改抵押贷款违约的情况下。 Finally, and most fundamentally, the American mortgages market is asymmetric.最后，也是最根本的是，美国抵押贷款市场是不对称的。 When interest rates fall and house prices rise, mortgages can be refinanced at par value, generating the mortgage equity withdrawals that fueled the housing bubble.当利率下降和房价上涨，抵押贷款再融资可以在票面价值，创造公平的抵押贷款提款的刺激房地产泡沫。 However, when interest rates rise and house prices fall, mortgages can only be refinanced at par value even though the market price of the securitized mortgage has fallen.然而，当利率上升和房价下跌，抵押贷款只能在再融资票面价值，即使市场价格的证券抵押贷款有所下降。 To reconstruct our mortgage system on a sounder basis, we ought to look to the Danish model, which has withstood many tests since it was brought into existence after the great fire of Copenhagen in 1795.为了重建我们的抵押贷款体系的坚实的基础，我们应该期待着丹麦模式，经受了许多考验，因为它带入后存在的巨大火灾哥本哈根在1795年。 It remains the best performing in Europe during the current crisis.它仍然是表现最好的在欧洲目前的危机。 First, it is an open system in which all mortgage originators can participate on equal terms as long as they meet the rigorous regulatory requirements.第一，它是一个开放的系统中，所有抵押贷款发起人可以参与平等的条件，只要符合严格的法规要求。 There are no GSEs enjoying a quasimonopolistic position.没有GSEs享受quasimonopolistic立场。 Second, mortgage originators are required to retain credit risk and to perform the servicing functions, thereby properly aligning the incentives.第二，抵押贷款发起人必须保留信用风险和履行服务职能，从而适当调整奖励。 Third, the mortgage is funded by the issuance of standardized bonds, creating a large and liquid market.第三，按揭贷款是由发行债券的标准化，创造一个大市场和液体。 Indeed, the spread on Danish mortgage bonds is similar to the option-adjusted spread on bonds issued by the GSEs, although they carry no implicit government guarantees.事实上，传播丹麦抵押贷款债券相似的选项调整蔓延发行的债券由GSEs ，尽管他们携带任何隐含的政府担保。 Finally, the asymmetric nature of American mortgages is replaced by what the Danes call the Principle of Balance.最后，不对称性抵押贷款是美国所取代丹麦呼吁原理的平衡。 Every mortgage is instantly converted into a security of the same amount and the two remain interchangeable at all times.抵押贷款是每一个瞬间转换成一个安全的相同数额和两国仍然可以互换在任何时候都。 Homeowners can retire mortgages not only by paying them off, but also by buying an equivalent face amount of bonds at market price.房主可以退休抵押贷款不仅支付其赶走，但也通过购买同等面值的债券市场价格。 Because the value of homes and the associated mortgage bonds tend to move in the same direction, homeowners should not end up with negative equity in their homes.由于房屋的价值以及相关的抵押债券往往朝着同一方向前进，房主不应该停止与负资产的家园。 To state it more clearly, as home prices decline, the amount that a homeowner must spend to retire his mortgage decreases because he can buy the bonds at lower prices.国家更明确，因为房屋价格下降，数量的房主必须花费退休抵押贷款减少，因为他可以购买债券价格下跌。 The US can emulate the Danish system with surprisingly few modifications from our current practices.美国可以仿效丹麦系统奇怪一些修改我们的现行做法。 What is required is transparent, standardized securities which create large and fungible pools.现在需要的是透明的，标准化的证券创造大国和互换游泳池。 Today in the US, over half of all mortgages are securitized by Ginnie Mae, which issues standardized securities.今天，在美国，一半以上的所有抵押贷款证券化的政府国民抵押协会，标准化的问题证券。 All that is missing is allowing the borrowers to redeem their mortgages at the lower of par or market.所有这一切都缺少的是允许借款人赎回抵押在较低的成绩或市场。 Because of the current havoc in the mortgage market, there is no confidence in the origination and securitization process.由于目前肆虐在抵押贷款市场，但没有信心的起源和证券化进程。 As a result, a government guarantee is indispensable at this time, and may be needed for the next few years.因此，政府是必不可少的保证在这个时间，可能需要在今后几年。 As the private sector regains its strength, the government guarantees could, and should, be gradually phased out.由于私营部门恢复其强大的实力，在政府担保可以而且应该逐步取消。 How to get there from here?如何到达呢？ It will involve modifying the existing stock of mortgages, so that the principal does not exceed the current market value of the houses, and refinancing them with Danish-style loans.这将涉及修改现有存量贷款，因此，主要不超过目前的市场价值的房屋和再融资的他们与丹麦风格的贷款。 The modification will have to be done by servicing companies that need to be properly incentivized.修改将必须做的服务公司，必须适当incentivized 。 Modifying mortgages that have been sliced and diced into securitizations may require legislative authorization.修改抵押贷款已切片和切割成证券可能需要立法授权。 The virtual monopoly of the GSEs would be terminated and they would be liquidated over time.虚拟垄断GSEs将被终止，他们将随着时间的推移清算。 A plan to reorganize the mortgage industry along these lines would inspire the confidence that would allow a successful recapitalization of the banking system with the help of the $700 billion package approved last week.计划重组按揭业沿着这些路线将鼓舞信心，让一个成功的资本银行系统的帮助下7,000亿美元一揽子上周批准。 Mr. Soros is chairman of Soros Fund Management and the author of "The New Paradigm for Financial Markets" (Public Affairs, 2008).索罗斯先生担任索罗斯基金管理公司和作者的“新范式金融市场” |
