| <P class=MsoNormal style="TEXT-JUSTIFY: inter-ideograph; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">基本面中有技术面，技术面中有基本面，至于数据面则要看与基本面指出的方向是否一致，是否能对短期基本面进行修正。 <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p> <P class=MsoNormal style="TEXT-JUSTIFY: inter-ideograph; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p> </o:p> <P class=MsoNormal style="TEXT-JUSTIFY: inter-ideograph; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">以上是我在上海黄金外汇特训营讲课时的一段话，重点想谈的是美元对欧元英镑以及日元的未来行情 <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'">—— <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">当然也是短线。在当前基本面对美元相对有利的情况下 <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'">—— <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">美国主要官员开始出面维护美元，强调通货膨胀风险，以及大多数数据比预期的要好，显示美国经济可能度过难关 <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'">—— <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">我们主要看技术面。 <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p> <P class=MsoNormal style="TEXT-JUSTIFY: inter-ideograph; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p> </o:p> <P class=MsoNormal style="TEXT-JUSTIFY: inter-ideograph; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">技术面上美元 <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'">“ <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">远反转 <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'">” <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的图形仍然在延续。所谓远反转关键是一个远字。既然反转还远，而美元又不可能大幅度下跌，因此震荡是主流趋势。从美元指数星期五收出的图形看 <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'">—— <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">沟壑图形 <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'">—— <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">也说明未来几天大多数非美货币仍然是震荡。震荡有三种情况：震荡上行，震荡下行，来回震荡。未来几天怎么震？美元先上震荡上行，然后震荡下行，从整个星期的情况看，应该是震荡偏下，因为周末有美国非农数据 <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'">—— <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">不好的概率挺大。 <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p> <P class=MsoNormal style="TEXT-JUSTIFY: inter-ideograph; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p> </o:p> <P class=MsoNormal style="TEXT-JUSTIFY: inter-ideograph; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">大家记住，在震荡的行情中，数据面起作用的概率特别大，可能出现方向的改变。所谓方向改变，一要看数据的偏离度，二要看技术面是否突破重要位置。所谓偏离度，主要看美国非农数据大约是多少。现在预测是下降 <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'">6 <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万左右，大于 <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'">8 <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万，美元会破位下行，美元指数回到 <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'">72.3<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">小于 <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'">5 <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万，美元指数会上行，向 <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'">73.8 <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">迈进。 <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p> <P class=MsoNormal style="TEXT-JUSTIFY: inter-ideograph; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p> </o:p> <P class=MsoNormal style="TEXT-JUSTIFY: inter-ideograph; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">我们现在要特别注意美元指数图形，它既是个沟壑，又是个收敛三角形，因此突破很难，需要数据的支持，也就是短期基本面的变化指引。而今天的英国房地产数据非常差，预示欧洲未来的情况也可能好。这就是今天的基本面信号，因此我在星期六分析市场时指出：未来两天，美元指数缓慢上行，关键点在 <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'">73.07 <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。至于星期五空英镑的建议仍然坚持，因为今天会再次测试 <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'">860 <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，有可能破！至于星期五空欧日的投资者，没有快进快出的，或者战略性建仓的，可以拿住。如果仓位重，则要小心。虽然我相信欧日突破 <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'">170 <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">也不可怕，但如果仓重，上帝是要惩罚的，何况欧日即使下跌，也还有 <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'">“ <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">顶部区域反复做多 <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'">” <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的谚语管着。 <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p> <P class=MsoNormal style="TEXT-JUSTIFY: inter-ideograph; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p> </o:p> <P class=MsoNormal style="TEXT-JUSTIFY: inter-ideograph; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">最后警告：对初学者来说，最好别碰欧日，尤其是英日。我所谓的战略性建仓，本身就如美元远反转一样，给出的是未来式。 <SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p> |
