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罗杰斯“第二个预言”会灵验吗

2011-5-12 08:02| 发布者: admin| 查看: 605| 评论: 0|原作者: 摘|来自: 罗杰斯

<DIV id=content> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">世界顶级投资大师、量子基金的创始人罗杰斯去年初发出 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">"</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">远离美元,换成人民币,投资农产品 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">"</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的预言,这个 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">"</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">预言 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">"</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">神奇般灵验了,近一年来,美元狂跌,农产品走出大牛市,农业股也涨疯了,而且把化肥等农资股也带了上来,罗杰斯果然不是浪得虚名, <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">"</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">粉丝们 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">"</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">相信也获得大丰收。罗杰斯最近又发出 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">"</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">第二个预言 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">"</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">,他去年 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">12</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月在香港的投资报告会上指出,现要离美元更远点,换成人民币,投资中国资产,不是投资中国的房地产,是投资中国的高速公路股!罗杰斯在他的新书《中国牛市:与全球最伟大市场共舞》中,也建议投资高速公路股,其理由在于,美国每 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">1000</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">人拥有 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">700</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">辆车,而在中国,这一数字仅为 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">24</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">辆,因此罗杰斯认为,中国的轿车市场潜力很大。不过,他并不就此认为汽车生产商会是最佳的投资选择,而是建议投资人买入收费公路的股票。罗杰斯认为中国的轿车市场增速迅猛,必然会带动高速公路车流量的激增,况且现在征地成本越来越高,常常为了绕开一个文物古迹,或者动植物保护区,甚至遇到漫天要价的 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">"</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">钉子户 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">"</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">,高速公路都要绕道修建。现时已上市的高速公路股拥有不少优势,资产增值潜力巨大,尤其是核心路产处于国家路网主干道的高速公路股,每天车轮滚滚,业绩保持稳健增长,且具不受目前结构性通胀负面影响的重资产行业特征,难怪罗杰斯大力建议投资中国的高速公路股。罗杰斯正吹响高速公路板块的 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">"</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">集结号 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">"</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">,罗杰斯先前预期农产品大涨的 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">"</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">预言 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">"</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">已得到验证,而他看好中国高速公路股的 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">"</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">预言 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">"</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">看来值得考虑,罗杰斯能够屹立财金界几十年不倒,是有其看家本领的。 <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt"><SPAN ><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">在低价底部的高速公路股中,中原高速主要路桥资产位于全国高速公路网 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">"</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">大十字架 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">"</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">结构的轴心区域,具有得天独厚的区域垄断优势,其中公司所经营管理的郑漯高速公路、漯驻高速公路是南北大动脉京珠国道主干线的重要路段,也是河南高速公路网的核心组成部分,而旗下的郑州黄河公路大桥横跨黄河天堑,是 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">107</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">国道的必经要道,也是河南省内来往黄河两岸的重要快速通道,在国家实施中西部大开发战略中具有相当突出的地位,过境车辆将进一步增长。中原高速去年自筹资本金,又获银团贷款 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">100</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元,共计新投 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">150</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元投资建设郑州黄河公铁两用桥项目、郑州至石人山高速公路项目、永亳淮高速公路商丘段项目、郑州至漯河高速公路新郑机场至许昌段的改扩项目,这样使中原高速总资产规模骤增 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">250%</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">,根据高速公路的投资平均利润计,中原高速的新投项目建成后每年可为中原高速带来 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿以上的年利润,由于新投项目的筹资并未摊薄目前股本,因此建成后中原高速的每股收益可望增长 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">倍左右。 <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt"><SPAN ><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">在股改期间,河南省交通厅承诺在公司投资建设的永毫淮高速公路商丘路段完成竣工决算后,将积极协调有关单位收购,或者将永毫淮高速公路商丘路段进行资产置换,此注资计划将有助公司业绩显著提高。概算总投资 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">87.68</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元的郑石高速公路于 <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="21" Month="12" Year="2007"><SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">2007</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">12</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">21</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">日 </st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">建成通车,郑石高速公路全长约 <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="183" UnitName="公里"><SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">183</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">公里 </st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">,沿线先后与郑州市西南绕城高速公路、许昌至登封高速公路,以及属于国家高速公路规划网的南京至洛阳、二连浩特至广州高速公路等多条重要干线公路交汇,项目终点向西延伸将与国家高速公路规划网上海至西安高速公路相连接,枢杻地位重要,成为中原高速巨大的利润增长点。 <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt"><SPAN ><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">  中原高速还拟出资不超过 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元参与中原信托增资扩股,中原信托拟将注册资本由目前的 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">5.92</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元增至 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">12</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元或以上,中原高速可望成为大股东,未来增值潜力巨大。另外中原高速还出资成立河南中石化中原高速石油有限公司,介入供油领域。中原高速的核心路产位于全国高速公路网 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">"</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">大十字架 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">"</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">结构的轴心区域,枢杻地位重要,加上新路陆续建成通车,业绩呈高速增长态势,在高速公路板块中表现突出,嘉实等基金开始大举介入,后市值得重点关注。 </DIV>

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