| <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">没有持续的政策面的支撑，市场又开始泄气，盘面上已经找不到指标股的身影，惟有受益于 <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="g" SourceValue="3" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">3G</FONT> </st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">概念的科技股还有所表现。现在离下方的缺口越来越近，在人心思补的情况下，政策跳空缺口基本上将，面临回补。至于市场的中期走势我们还是要看在回补缺口以后市场的取向。 <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN ><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">政策面上，运营商重组以及最新高管调整任命今天正式公布，中国铁通并入中国移动集团成为其全资子公司。中国联通分拆双网，其中 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDMA</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">网络并入中国电信，保留 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">GSM</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">网络与中国网通合并组成新的联通集团。从电信重组方案来讲，受益最大的就是中国联通，因为，中国联通在 <SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">C</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">网被剥夺出去以后，原先中国网通的固话业务被全部并入，这样中国联通基本上就实现了全业务经营，等 <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="g" SourceValue="3" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">3G</FONT> </st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">牌照一发，中国联通就有所有业务的资格，这也是电信业发展的趋势。相比之下，中国移动的业务就要单一一些，经管它的移动业务在现阶段还很难被其他公司超过，但由于它没有大规模的固定电话业务，这使得他的业务发展是不完善，从长远来看，有可能被中国联通超过。 <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">市场的亮点还是集中在 <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="g" SourceValue="3" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">3G</FONT> </st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">概念中，由于中国联通还处于停牌阶段，市场游资就选择其他一些具备 <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="g" SourceValue="3" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">3G</FONT> </st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">概念的股票来抄作。在这里，我们要清楚的认识到，在整个 <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="g" SourceValue="3" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">3G</FONT> </st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">链条中，能够最先受益的是 <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="g" SourceValue="3" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">3G</FONT> </st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">设备提供商，而不是运营商，因为， <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="g" SourceValue="3" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">3G</FONT> </st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的建设对网络运营商来说主要是资金的投入，回报要等待 <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="g" SourceValue="3" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">3G</FONT> </st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">技术成熟以后才会逐渐有，而 <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="g" SourceValue="3" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">3G</FONT> </st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">设备提供商在 <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="g" SourceValue="3" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">3G</FONT> </st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">建设中就可以从卖设备中得到收益，至于终端设备，也就是 <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="g" SourceValue="3" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">3G</FONT> </st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">手机生产厂商，他们也会受益，但他们受益就相对比较少，手机行业现在基本上就是一个薄利多销的行业，国内手机生产厂商在技术上和国外还有很大的区别，并且在价格上他们没有太大的自主定价权，这就极大的压缩了他们的获利空间。因此，对于整个 <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="g" SourceValue="3" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN ><FONT face="Times New Roman">3G</FONT> </st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">概念板块，我们要区别对待，认真分清其中的机会。 |
