中国石头 发表于 2010-1-5 16:56

<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" class=MsoNormal><?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="1" Day="5" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2010</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">年</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">大盘跳高</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">11</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">点以</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3254</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">点开盘,略上扬后走出逐级回落的走势,下探至全天最低点的</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3221</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">点后返身上攻;下午开盘后摸高</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3290</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">点,随后小幅回落震荡,尾盘再度放量上扬,报收于</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3282</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">点,上涨</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">38</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">点,成交量放大至</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1652</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">亿元,收出一根带有较长下影线的中阳线。大盘今日早盘回抽确认,随后中阳上攻,有望延续强势、重返升途。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">昨日没有如所期望的那样出现开门红的走势,而是以一根中阴线杀跌,使得短线走势变得微妙,大有再度探底、延续调整的味道在内。但是,笔者却并不这样看,而是认为,不妨把昨日的中阴看作是向上突破之后的回抽确认,看作是市场对连续发行新股的反应,甚至于不排除长阳拉升的出现。可喜的是,大盘今日在回抽确认均线支撑之后,走出强势上扬的态势,而且能够在相对高位维持强势震荡,而不是冲高回落,说明市场走强已经是大势所趋,大盘继续向上拓展空间已经成为必然了。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">既然大盘上涨易而下跌难,那么继续做多就是必然的选择了。为什么这样乐观呢?从近期的消息面来看,除了房地产的调控对地产股是利空之外,其他消息更多是偏好的,如对农业的扶植、海南旅游岛的获批等,特别是年报预增成为普遍现象,预示着上市公司的业绩回升已经超出预期,这样的话,大盘的平均市盈率还有继续下降的空间,则</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3000</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">点成为中长期底部的可能性得到加强,而现在的指数可以说是离开底部不远,也就是说,下跌的空间不大而上涨的空间不小!在这样的市场状态下,离场岂不是放弃了机会?只有积极入场才能抓住机会!</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">昨日收盘之后,笔者曾说,“如果大盘再度考验</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">20</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日和</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">30</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日均线,则可以看作是短线的买点;如果再度考验</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">60</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日和</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">120</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日均线,则应该看作是中线的买点”。今日早盘指数下探的时候正好是绝佳的短线买点,随着大盘的继续涨升,有望再现逼空上扬的走势,唯一的隐忧是资金面的不足,但是从新股申购来看,市场不缺资金,缺的是信心,缺的是大胆做多的勇气。本周的集中申购虽然是对资金面的考验,何尝不是一次轧空申购资金的机会?</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">因此,笔者还要重复最近说过很多次的几句话:<B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">近期的操作策略依然如故,即积极为年报行情做准备、为春季攻势做准备,依然是寻找小盘绩优题材股进行布局,等待新一轮主
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