<P><FONT size=4>上证指数自大B浪反弹以来.仅仅11个交易日股指就从山顶陡跌了六七百点!这样的跌幅让买在山顶的人和中间抢反弹的人都无语了!经过11个交易日的暴跌最低下探2761点也就是通道下轨1814和2037点的支撑!黄金线0.5的位置!也在89日均线附近发起报复性的反弹单日上涨126点.第二天多方继续发起上功!在很多人看来认为这波下跌应该到头了到谷底了!可以大胆的建仓了!关于这个问题我们要从最基本的技术上来分析:</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=4>从周五收的K线看属于上升中的螺旋浆从成交量看较前几日有效的放大!从均线看上指盘已站上5日均线和89日均线.从商品路径看60分钟大盘已经形成头肩底.从60分钟大盘已经站布林线中轨只是还没有走平!所以周一有向3020-3039的向下跳空缺口发起进攻.这个位置是反压黄金线的0.382位也是60日均线之处!</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=4>不是说收复这个缺口就可以确定这波的下跌调整已经结束!只有有效的站上0.618的位置3200点.才有想象的空间!</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=4>从这波一波下跌调整的形态来看.平台式.锯齿式都有可能!</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=4>从周线看大盘上周收了根长下影的阴十字线.空方还是有一定的空间的!下周上指一旦有效跌破周布林线的中轨也就是2850点附近..那么下跌还将继续!从周期看上指的这波下跌还没有到!要从两面看</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=4>反压:缺口位-3100</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=4>支撑:2925-2850</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=4>所以下周还会震荡!以谨慎态度对待.在三千三至三千四百多点的时候在回家的路上一次偶然听见楼下的人在聊天说今天大盘又涨了多少..某个股又涨了多少!!!狼来了!目前的暴跌大家看到了!</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=4>在这波反弹中个股的选择是相当重要的!所以一条正确的思路也至关重要</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=4>1:超跌.跌无可跌提前大盘调整的 <WBR>2:错杀股:驱动浪还没有走完大盘调整反其道横盘的个股</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=4>在这波反弹中我选择了2错杀股:持有的三支股票002041 000796 600469</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=4>个人观点.仅供参考</FONT></P></DIV><!-- --><BR><BR><BR>
<br />[该帖子由作者于2009年8月24日 10:25:53最后编辑] <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: #ffffde; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">市场经过前几个<SPAN class=ttag>交易</SPAN>日的非理性暴跌后，昨日迎来报复性反弹</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">两市高开高走，权重股全面做多，<SPAN class=ttag>个股</SPAN>也是全线飘红</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">市场今日仍有<SPAN class=ttag>短线</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">企稳迹象</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">后市对于近阶段的极端走势有一个修正过程</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">主要以看反弹为主，但不排除有一个修正的过程</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">后市个股反弹即将产生分化</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">-------</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">反弹仍可期待</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><BR><BR><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">如果你对自己把握不足</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">--<BR>---<BR> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">那么</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">---</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">跟上我们：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">--</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">网上客服</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">--Q--</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1029890877 <BR> 1.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">我们发指令，你自己操作</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><BR><FONT face="Times New Roman"> 2.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">先盈利，后付费</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><BR><FONT face="Times New Roman"> 3.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">长期稳健收益，有效的规避<SPAN class=ttag>风险</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><BR><FONT face="Times New Roman"> <BR></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">不要想<SPAN class=ttag>黑马</SPAN>，不要想暴利，否则</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">--</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">你会输得很惨！</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><BR><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">长期稳健收益，方是正道</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; BACKGROUND: #cc99ff; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><?xml:namespace pr 谢谢分析！ 谢谢分析！
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