郎少
发表于 2007-10-25 14:34
<div class="t_msgfont" id="postmessage_293048"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">以中国石油上限价计，其募集资金规模达</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">668</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿元，已刷新不久前中国神华创下的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">A</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">股市场最大</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">IPO</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">融资规模的记录。目前万力达的初询结果还未公布，但我们预计此轮</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">只新股的网上融资规模可能在</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">470</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿元左右。</span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"></span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">中国石油路演获机构热捧成为必然，但发行价格低于市场预期。我们预计中石油的网上网下合计申购资金总量有可能达到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">3</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">万亿元左右。</span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"></span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">综合情景模拟结果，我认为中国石油将可能启动回拨机制，但回拨比例还取决于网上网下资金量的对比。如当网下的增量资金低于网上的增量资金时，则回拨量有可能达到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">4%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">至</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">5%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">；而当网下的增量资金与网上的增量资金相差不大时，则回拨量可能在</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">3%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">左右。</span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"></span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">当网上申购资金量达到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2.25</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">万亿元左右时，预计中签率在</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2.2%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">左右，即约需</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">76</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">万元左右的资金中签</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1000</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">股。</span></font></p></div>
郎少
发表于 2007-10-25 19:14
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