<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face=Calibri> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 21.1pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" class=MsoNormal><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">谁是下一个？</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face=Calibri> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">昨日，法国银行股带领欧洲股市急线下挫，</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">法国农业信贷银行下跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face=Calibri>12%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">，法国巴黎银行下跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face=Calibri>9%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><A href="http://finance.sina.com.cn/realstock/company/sh601166/nc.shtml" target=_blank><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; text-underline: none" lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>兴业银行</SPAN></SPAN></A></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">股价挫收</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face=Calibri>14.7%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">，创自</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face=Calibri>1991</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">年以来最大单日百分比跌幅。该行也承认，其财务状况确实出现问题。而该行股价</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">本月已累计下跌三分之一，自年初以来已累计下跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face=Calibri>45%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">。</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face=Calibri> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">市场悲观情绪肆意蔓延，市场纷纷猜测法国恐成下一个被下调评级的</SPAN><FONT face=Calibri> </FONT><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">“倒霉蛋儿”。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face=Calibri>08</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">年爆发的“雷曼危机”席卷全球，法国也未能幸免。最近几年法国每年的财政赤字都超</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face=Calibri>3%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">，债务问题也达到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face=Calibri>GDP</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">比重的</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face=Calibri>84.7%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">，远远超过欧盟规定的</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face=Calibri>60%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">。市场传闻，法国恐受到美国遭降级引发的“多米多效应”影响，很可能成为下一个评级遭下调的国家。</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face=Calibri> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 21.1pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" class=MsoNormal><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">三大评级机构力挺法国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17.25pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; MARGIN: 11.25pt 0cm; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" class=MsoNormal align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">受市场传言影响，昨日</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">法国国债的信用违约掉期</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face=Calibri>(CDS)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">盘中飙升至</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face=Calibri>176</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">点，创下历史之最。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">这与同是<SPAN lang=EN-US>AAA</SPAN>国家的德国的<SPAN lang=EN-US>86</SPAN>点两倍以上，法国也是所有<SPAN lang=EN-US>AAA</SPAN>国家中<SPAN lang=EN-US>CDS</SPAN>费率最高的国家。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">鉴于投资者不断恐慌的情绪，三大评级机构纷纷发表声明，以稳定投资者对法国的信心。</SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17.25pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 11.25pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" class=MsoNormal align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">标准普尔昨日表示，由于法国的财政流动性比较好好，赤字水平相对较低。因此将维持法国的<SPAN lang=EN-US>AAA</SPAN>级评级，同时展望为稳定。另外两家评级机构，穆迪和惠誉也力挺法国。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 20.25pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">此外，</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">法国官方表示，评级机构对目前法国的情况表示满意，因此市场疯传的法国评级即将遭到下调纯属空穴来风。</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 20.25pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face=Calibri> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 21.1pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" class=MsoNormal><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">法政府风声鹤唳</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></P>
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: 17.25pt; TEXT-INDENT: 15.75pt; MARGIN: 11.25pt 0cm; mso-char-indent-count: 1.5" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face=Calibri>IKON</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">集团今天上午从法国收到的消息，目前法国正在采取行动，以稳定市场和信心。正在休假的</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">法国总统萨科齐已经要求各关键部长暂停休假，针对目前震荡的市场局势进行紧急磋商。他要求政府用一周时间提出法国减赤方案，并于<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>24</SPAN>日对外发布。 萨科齐表示，虽然目前的形势较为危急，但是法国会履行自己的承诺，即</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">今年</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face=Calibri>5.7%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">的公共赤字，在明年降至</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face=Calibri>4.6% </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">，到</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face=Calibri>2013</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">年减到欧盟要求的</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face=Calibri>3%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">，同时</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">竭力捍卫法国的<SPAN lang=EN-US>AAA</SPAN>评级和欧元区的稳定。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17.25pt; TEXT-INDENT: 20.25pt; MARGIN: 11.25pt 0cm; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" class=MsoNormal align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">另据消息，萨科奇将于下周会见德国总理默克尔，并会在<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月底前往北京，与中国国家领导人就目前世界经济局势展开会谈。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 20.25pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face=Calibri>IKON</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">集团英国分部分析师</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face=Calibri>Nicholas Wright </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">表示，目前的问题是悲观情绪的互相传递，而不是基本面因素的影响，如何消除市场传言和悲观情绪重拾投资者信心，是各国当局首要面对的问题。</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face=Calibri> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
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