<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">金属产品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铅锌<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：隔夜，伦锌小幅反弹，成交量出现萎缩，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2355</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.48%</SPAN>；伦铅缩量反弹，日线两连阳，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2605</SPAN>美元，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.90%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>世界金属统计局<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>全球前<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>个月锌市供应过剩<SPAN lang=EN-US>11.8</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2.</SPAN>世界金属统计局<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>全球前<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>个月铅市供应过剩<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.4</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：上海现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17450-17550</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>340-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>240</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17400-17500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌幅为<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>390-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>290</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>铅报<SPAN lang=EN-US>16950-17150</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>812100</SPAN>吨，较上交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>26500</SPAN>吨，上海交易所锌期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>335310</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1099</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铅库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>301950</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>3525</SPAN>吨，上期所铅期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4222</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：基本面上，铅锌均处于供求过剩的局面。资金面上，沪锌主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单降至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.8</SPAN>万手左右；沪铅主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单增加至<SPAN lang=EN-US>975</SPAN>手，净空单比例明显下降。整体来看，资金操作偏空。技术显示，沪锌、沪铅出现止跌企稳迹象，尚待确认。操作建议：沪锌空单持有；沪铅轻仓观望。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">本周三食品及能源价格上行继续推升通胀担忧，国际金价维持强势突破千五关口，<SPAN lang=EN-US>Comex</SPAN>金开盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>1496.1</SPAN>，最高触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>1506.5</SPAN>，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>1493.8</SPAN>，收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>1498.9</SPAN>，成交<SPAN lang=EN-US>137948</SPAN>手，持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>366406</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">．美国能源信息署<SPAN lang=EN-US>(EIA)</SPAN>公布的数据显示，美国<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="4" Day="15" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>当周原油库存减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>232</SPAN>万桶。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">．全美地产经纪商协会<SPAN lang=EN-US>(NAR)</SPAN>公布的数据显示，美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月成屋销售年化月率增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.7%</SPAN>，折合成年率为<SPAN lang=EN-US>510</SPAN>万套，月率增幅高于经济学家预期的<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.5%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="4" Day="20" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on">4<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月20</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>沪金1112</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">合约早盘小幅高开在<SPAN lang=EN-US>312.18</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，日内最高<SPAN lang=EN-US>314.68</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>312.12</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，收盘上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.44</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.78%</SPAN>，成交量<SPAN lang=EN-US>20838</SPAN>手，较上一个交易日大幅增加，持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>39944</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>ETF</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">持仓方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">全球最大的黄金上市交易基金<SPAN lang=EN-US>(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust</SPAN>表示，其黄金持仓量截至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>21</SPAN>为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1,230.25</SPAN>吨，与上一个交易日持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">本周三金融市场缺乏重要数据，食品及能源价格再次上行继续加深了投资者对未来通胀的担忧情绪，国际金价继续震荡上行，技术上看，价格短期突破<SPAN lang=EN-US>1500</SPAN>将继续上测<SPAN lang=EN-US>1520</SPAN>附近压力，但中期波段上行接近尾声，局部修正恐将出现，投资者需位置谨慎，防止踏入多头陷阱。操作上，期金<SPAN lang=EN-US>1112</SPAN>短线暂维持观望，切勿追高，中线<SPAN lang=EN-US>295</SPAN>多单已到达中期目标，稳健者参考期金<SPAN lang=EN-US>315-320</SPAN>分批进行获利离场，激进者可轻仓继续持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">短线支撑：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1485<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1480<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>短线阻力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1535<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1520<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">焦炭<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：现货价格整体平稳运行，成交情况稍有好转。一级冶金焦山西太原报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>1970</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨（车板含税价），持平；河北唐山报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2050-2080</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨（到厂含税价），持平；连云港报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨（平仓含税价），持平；天津港报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2130</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨（平仓含税价），持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息：（<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>）山西省统计局<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日发布消息称，经过强力推进的煤炭资源重组整合，山西的传统支柱产业煤炭开采和洗选业发展势头强劲，不仅在资源利用、安全生产、政府财政收入、民营资本收益、国企管理体制以及环保效益等方面也显现出多重成效，同时各项经营指标“全线飘红”。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">（<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>）当前，作为国际煤炭交易价格基准的新一年度的日澳动力煤谈判已结束，谈判双方基本在动力煤价格方面达成共识，合同价攀升至<SPAN lang=EN-US>129.85</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较<SPAN lang=EN-US>2008</SPAN>年金融危机时的价格<SPAN lang=EN-US>125</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，提升<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.85</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，再创历史新高。同时，这一价格较去年的<SPAN lang=EN-US>97.75</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，上涨近<SPAN lang=EN-US>32.1</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨幅达<SPAN lang=EN-US>32.8%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">（<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>）澳大利亚进口主焦煤<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="4" Day="20" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>225</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：大连商品交易所焦炭仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">小结：周三<SPAN lang=EN-US>J1109</SPAN>合约冲高回落。焦炭上市近四个交易日来，成交量首次出现萎缩，显然<SPAN lang=EN-US>2400</SPAN>上方的压力正引起投资者的观注。上游原材料价格继续对焦炭起到支撑，隔夜外围市场原油上涨给大宗商品带来支撑，预计今天可能对国内商品同样产生影响，焦炭有望继续试探<SPAN lang=EN-US>2400</SPAN>的整数压力。操作上建议，维持震荡操作，观注<SPAN lang=EN-US>2400</SPAN>上方的压力。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铜<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：隔夜伦铜自沪铜收盘之后，震荡走强，并于晚间<SPAN lang=EN-US>22</SPAN>：<SPAN lang=EN-US>00</SPAN>美成屋销售数据公布后，大幅上涨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>小时内上涨了<SPAN lang=EN-US>84.75</SPAN>点，尾盘最终收涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.99%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9570</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。目前铜价回到继续收复<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>和<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线处，实现第二日反弹。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>世界金属统计局周三称，全球<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-2</SPAN>月铜市场供应过剩<SPAN lang=EN-US>11.8</SPAN>万吨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年全年供应过剩<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.2</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月成屋销售年率为<SPAN lang=EN-US>510</SPAN>万户，预估为<SPAN lang=EN-US>500</SPAN>万户，月率增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.7%</SPAN>，好于预期增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.5%</SPAN>。数据的好转提振市场人气，从而推动铜价走高。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：上海金属网铜现货报价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>71250-71550</SPAN>，较昨日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>750</SPAN>，现货较期货升水<SPAN lang=EN-US>200</SPAN>。现货成交方面，受期铜反弹走稳影响，现铜升水维稳，下游按需采购表现也较稳定，成交尚可。市场出现部分进口铜，显现近期比值略提，国内维持升水状态下，进口铜流量有所增加；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.52-7.51</SPAN>，较昨日小幅微跌，表明内盘铜价基本跟涨外盘。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="4" Day="20" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>伦铜库存增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1750</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>453700</SPAN>，目前注销仓单占库存比处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.95%</SPAN>，较昨日大幅增加，暗示后期库存增速有所放缓，如能再次回到<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>之上，则库存有望实现减少。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：昨日伦铜连续第二日收涨，且涨势强劲。美国昨日较好的成屋开工数据提振了市场人气，美元再度下跌。近期伦铜注销仓单大幅增加，从而暗示伦铜库存的增速有望放缓，并最终可能出现减少，使得迟迟未发生的旺季需求出现回升。市场将继续关注此次铜价反弹，昨日伦铜持仓量大增<SPAN lang=EN-US>7963</SPAN>，使得市场对此次反弹持较乐观态度。鉴于目前反弹行情有望延续，若铜价收盘于<SPAN lang=EN-US>72000</SPAN>之上，中线空单再度减仓，短线多头可尝试，第一目标看至<SPAN lang=EN-US>73500.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="8" UnitName="mm">8mm</st1:chmetcnv> Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4710</SPAN>，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="20" UnitName="mm"><SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>5040</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>(1) </SPAN>发达国家主权债务风险威胁全球经济复苏；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) 3</SPAN>月全球粗钢产量较去年同期增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>7%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) </SPAN>工信部表示，钢铁等高耗能行业今年淘汰落后任务较突出；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(4) </SPAN>印度粉矿<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="4" Day="20" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>指数参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>186</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>17140</SPAN>，持平。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">小结：周三<SPAN lang=EN-US>RB1110</SPAN>合约止跌回升，期价重新站上<SPAN lang=EN-US>4800</SPAN>关口。隔夜美元指数继续回落，推动原油及大宗商品走高，目前钢市基本面变化不大，但沪钢金融属性逐渐增强，后市走势还将出现反复。操作上建议，短线多单尝试，止损<SPAN lang=EN-US>4780</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>6 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铝<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：隔夜伦铝冲高小幅回落，但尾盘仍收涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.37%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2727</SPAN>，该收盘价创下近期新高，为<st1:chsdate Year="2008" Month="8" Day="28" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2008</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>28</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>以来的高点。不过铝价在晚间<SPAN lang=EN-US>22</SPAN>：<SPAN lang=EN-US>00</SPAN>受益于强劲的美成屋数据之后，其表现差于铜价，反而自高位回落，表明其上涨动力开始放缓，暗示短期可能会出现回调走势。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1. </SPAN>世界金属统计局周三称，全球<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-2</SPAN>月铝市场供应过剩<SPAN lang=EN-US>30.2</SPAN>万吨，去年同期供应过剩<SPAN lang=EN-US>24.7</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月成屋销售年率为<SPAN lang=EN-US>510</SPAN>万户，预估为<SPAN lang=EN-US>500</SPAN>万户，月率增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.7%</SPAN>，好于预期增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.5%</SPAN>。数据的好转提振金属市场人气 。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：上海金属网铝现货报价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>16610-16630</SPAN>，较昨日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，现货较期货贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>，据现货市场传来的消息称，下游及中间商入市热情较高，虽然铝价走势趋稳后买兴略有回落，但整体来看市场成交较昨日有明显改善；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.24-6.26</SPAN>，较昨日小幅下跌，内弱外强格局延续。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>伦铝库存大幅增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>9275</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4604800</SPAN>，目前注销仓单占库存比处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.4%</SPAN>，较昨日小幅增加。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：隔夜伦铝自高位有所回落，涨幅不及其他基本金属。盘中再度创下近期新高。目前伦铝技术走势出现转弱，不过从伦铝的持仓量变化来看，其连续<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>日的增仓表明基金持续进入铝市，从而推动了铝价的上涨，其上涨的动力一是来自于成本因素的支撑，二是来自于铝的替代效应，铝价对于高涨的铜价实现了补涨，修复两者的比值。操作上沪铝<SPAN lang=EN-US>1106</SPAN>在回到<SPAN lang=EN-US>16800</SPAN>之上，可介入做多。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>1 <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">谷物早盘提示：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：周三<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米期货市场收盘下跌，玉米主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>1107</SPAN>合约报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>738.50</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>蒲。主要原因是五月初美国中西部地区天气有望改善，帮助农户恢复春播工作。<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>软红冬小麦主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>1107</SPAN>合约报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>822.00</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>蒲，收盘下跌，主要原因是多头平仓。<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>糙米市场收盘上涨，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>1107</SPAN>合约报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>1422.00</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>英担，主要原因是需求前景改善。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、阿根廷私人应用气象咨询公司表示，到下月拉尼娜现象对农作物的影响将降为零。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、干旱可能导致<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年美国德克萨斯州小麦产量减产<SPAN lang=EN-US>61%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、印度农业部预计今年印度稻米产量将达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>9411</SPAN>万吨，高于上年的<SPAN lang=EN-US>8909</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场，玉米：哈尔滨玉米进厂价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2060</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，水分<SPAN lang=EN-US>15%</SPAN>。大连港平舱价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2180</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，水份<SPAN lang=EN-US>14%</SPAN>。郑州玉米进厂价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2120</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，水分<SPAN lang=EN-US>15%</SPAN>。较<SPAN lang=EN-US>19</SPAN>日无变化。广州优质东北玉米港口报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2250</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，二等以上，水份<SPAN lang=EN-US>15%</SPAN>。较<SPAN lang=EN-US>19</SPAN>日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。强麦：郑州强筋小麦出库价<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。早籼稻：合肥早稻收购价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2160</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，水分≤<SPAN lang=EN-US>13.5%</SPAN>。九江早稻收购价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，水分≤<SPAN lang=EN-US>13.5%</SPAN>。较<SPAN lang=EN-US>19</SPAN>日无变化。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存方面：玉米仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1495</SPAN>张，郑州强麦仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>12410</SPAN>张，早籼稻仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>6438</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：玉米：整体走势仍在下降趋势中。操作上，继续持有空单，止损位<SPAN lang=EN-US>2395</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">强麦：<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日郑州强麦主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约高开回落，期价进一步上涨较为艰难。操作上，多单冲高适当了结。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">籼稻：<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日郑州籼稻主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约延续反弹，期价在反弹后可能进一步下跌。操作上，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2520</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>-2530</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨空单轻仓介入并持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期棉收跌，因投资者忧虑棉价高企抑制需求<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>加之海外充裕的供应威胁远月合约。指标<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE-7</SPAN>月期棉合约下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.1</SPAN>美分，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>167.06</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、中国社会科学院农业经济绿皮书：预计<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年棉花种植面积会明显恢复，估计能够达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>550</SPAN>万公顷，棉花总产量能够恢复到<SPAN lang=EN-US>650</SPAN>万吨以上的水平<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-3</SPAN>月棉、化纤纺织及印染精加工业<SPAN lang=EN-US>(500</SPAN>万元以上固定资产投资项目<SPAN lang=EN-US>)</SPAN>累计实现投资<SPAN lang=EN-US>2791205</SPAN>万元，同比<SPAN lang=EN-US>34.39%</SPAN>，增速较<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年全年水平<SPAN lang=EN-US>(21.61%)</SPAN>变化<SPAN lang=EN-US>12.78</SPAN>个百分点。在过去的一年中，该行业固定资产投资增速最高达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>34.39%</SPAN>，最低为<SPAN lang=EN-US>9.79%</SPAN>，波动幅度为<SPAN lang=EN-US>24.60</SPAN>个百分点。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、<SPAN lang=EN-US>19</SPAN>日，进口棉中国主港报价小幅上扬，涨幅在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>美分以下。近期，有关中国棉花消费量下滑的说法搅动棉市，引发市场人士对本年度美棉出口能否达标的担忧。此外，印度即将开会讨论是否考虑增加本年度棉花出口配额以及投资机构高盛公司预期未来几个月国际棉价趋跌都让市场看空气氛渐浓。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>29050</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，与上一交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>130</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>610</SPAN>张，较上一交易日持平，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>410</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">主产区天气：今春新疆天气前期慢热，使南北疆春播进度普遍推迟，其中棉花适播期推迟<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>天左右。四月中旬气温大幅度上升，有利于广大棉农抢抓农时，加快播种进度。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：目前南半球棉花逐渐上市，供应将趋于宽松，同时市场忧虑棉价高企将抑制需求，棉花市场整体人气依旧偏空，美棉跌至七周低位。央行继续上调存款准备金率，紧缩预期也压制郑棉走势，短期郑棉跌至<SPAN lang=EN-US>27000</SPAN>关口，跌势逐步趋于缓和。棉纱行情依旧偏弱，产成品积压加重，纺织企业仍采取消耗库存为主。现货价格继续小幅下跌，以山东的成交较为活跃，但成交价格出现进一步调低。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约小幅收涨，期价处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>27000-28000</SPAN>一线整理，短线反弹测试<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线压力，震荡区间进一步下移。操作上，短线交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">豆类油脂：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：受美元下跌及新资金买盘支撑，<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>月大豆收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>1369.25</SPAN>美分，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>15.25</SPAN>美分；<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>豆油主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>月合约收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>58.79</SPAN>美分；棕榈油相对豆油的折价扩大，提高了棕榈油在食物及燃料用途上的吸引力，<SPAN lang=EN-US>BMD</SPAN>棕榈油主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>月合约上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>令吉收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3315</SPAN>令吉<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；因受<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>大豆产品期货上扬的溢出支持，<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>油菜籽<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>月合约收盘上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.50</SPAN>加元，报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>583.80</SPAN>加元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>公吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息：国际方面，五位贸易人士分别表示，印尼政府可能将五月份毛棕榈油出口关税下调到<SPAN lang=EN-US>17.5%</SPAN>，因为近来国际棕榈油价格下跌。国内方面，商务部预报显示，上周（<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>11-17</SPAN>日）国内食用油零售价格比前一周上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.1%</SPAN>，其中花生油、菜籽油零售价格均上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.1%</SPAN>，豆油零售价格与前一周持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货：昨日豆类报价维持稳定，国内港口大豆分销价格维持于<SPAN lang=EN-US>4100-4150</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，国内沿海油厂豆粕报价大约在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2970-3120 </SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，实际成交价格略低。油脂现货报价涨跌互现，沿海四级豆油约为<SPAN lang=EN-US>9900-10100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；港口棕榈油报价集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9080-9450 </SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；国内四级菜油出厂价格处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>10000-10200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">仓单：大豆，<SPAN lang=EN-US>5390</SPAN>张；较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1061</SPAN>张。豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US> 9785</SPAN>张；较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>张。豆粕，<SPAN lang=EN-US>3500</SPAN>张；棕榈油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>张；均无变化。菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>12591</SPAN>张；较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>409</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：多空因素交织，二季度豆类油脂反复震荡整理概率较大；而就目前行情来看，短线可偏多操作，中线空单继续持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>ICE</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">原糖期货<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日收盘大涨，因美元走软改善风险偏好情绪，次月<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>月合约收涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>4%</SPAN>，创<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>个月来单日最大百分比涨幅。<SPAN lang=EN-US> ICE 5</SPAN>月原糖期货合约收盘跳涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.93</SPAN>美分，报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>25.20</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅。次月<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>月合约收盘大涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.91</SPAN>美分，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>4%</SPAN>，报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>23.53</SPAN>美 分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅。这是次月合约<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="1" Day="1" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>以来最大单日百分比涨幅。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、今年俄罗斯甜菜种植进度缓慢<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、今年古巴糖产量能达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>110</SPAN>万吨目标<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">国内现货小幅上调，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7200</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1019</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>2145</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">国内主产区天气情况：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">今天白天到晚上，桂林、柳州、河池、百色等市多云转阴，部分地区有阵雨或雷雨，局部有大雨，广西其它地区多云到晴。<SPAN lang=EN-US>22</SPAN>日，桂林、柳州、贺州、梧州、来宾、河池、百色等市 阴天有中雨，部分地区有大雨到暴雨，局部有短时雷雨大风、冰雹等强对流天气，我区其它地区有阵雨或雷雨，局部大雨。南宁市：今天白天到晚上，多云转阵雨或雷雨，南转北 风<SPAN lang=EN-US>2 </SPAN>到<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级，最高气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="30" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>℃</st1:chmetcnv>，最低气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="21" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>21</SPAN>℃</st1:chmetcnv>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约短期因超跌及其他农产品上涨影响而形成技术性反弹，但上方<SPAN lang=EN-US>7000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨一带预计将构成压力。操作上， 中线可适量沽空。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">连塑<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、今年，武汉年产<SPAN lang=EN-US>80</SPAN>万吨乙烯工程进入全面建设的高峰期。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、据石化联合会初步统计，<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月国内乙烯产量同比约增<SPAN lang=EN-US>30%</SPAN>，为<SPAN lang=EN-US>365</SPAN>万吨，同期电石产量同比降<SPAN lang=EN-US>4%</SPAN>，至<SPAN lang=EN-US>350</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格保持平稳。扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>膜料报<SPAN lang=EN-US>11300</SPAN>元，原料方面：亚洲乙烯保持稳定。市场报盘稀少，交投迟缓。中国和台湾乙烯库存充足，现货需求很少。市场参与者开始出口部分货物，减少高库存。乙烯下游产品利润负值，特别是聚乙烯，部分生产商计划减少聚乙烯装置的运行。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存数据：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>14864</SPAN>张，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>585</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：昨日连塑料窄幅震荡，盘中成交，持仓均明显回落，显示市场操作谨慎，杀跌动能虽有所减弱，但<SPAN lang=EN-US>11835</SPAN>一线的压力仍较为沉重。基本面上，货币政策收紧、下游需求不振对其产生一定的压力。但原油止跌回升，亚洲乙烯走势坚挺对其产生有力支撑。技术上看，目前连塑正处于整理区间下轨，短线不宜重仓追空。今日关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>11835</SPAN>一线的压力能否被突破，操作上，建议投资者暂以日内交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>2 PVC<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、国内电石市场上行迅猛，价格涨势惊人。在下游<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>企业尚迫切需要电石的大环境下，预计国内电石价格或将高位企稳。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、世界上第二大纯碱制造商—塔塔化工<SPAN lang=EN-US>(TCL)</SPAN>预测说，因原料和能源成本持续上升，今年全球纯碱市场供应将继续偏紧。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货市场全线平稳。<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFR</SPAN>远东报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1172</SPAN>美元，华北电石法报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7900</SPAN>元。华东乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8250</SPAN>元，昨日持平。而华东、华南，东北，西北，西南的价格均保持坚挺。原料方面：电石价格走势平稳，各地电石价格与无波动。西北电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3350</SPAN>元，华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3900</SPAN>元。成交一般。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存数据：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1017</SPAN>张，无增减。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：昨日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>小幅反弹，但仍受制于五日均线。显示市场分岐较重，投资者操作谨慎。基本面上，货币政策收紧，需求复苏缓慢对其形成一定压力，但原油小幅回升，亚洲现货走势坚挺对其产生一定的支撑。基本面多空交织，预计<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>短期内将维持区间震荡格局。后市关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>8350</SPAN>一线的压力。操作上，投资者手中多单可谨慎持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">沪胶<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>TOCOM</SPAN>橡胶期货<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日创近一周最大单日增幅，因日元走软而且原油价格走高增加了用于制作轮胎和手套的橡胶需求。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、印度<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010/11</SPAN>财年天然橡胶产量同比增<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.7%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、中国仓储轮胎级橡胶卖价较东南亚现货贴 水最高达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：目前云南标一胶市场参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>38600-38800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，海南标一胶参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>38500- 38800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，越南<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="3" UnitName="l"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3L</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>胶参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>40300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右（<SPAN lang=EN-US>17%</SPAN>票），泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US>3#</SPAN>烟片胶在<SPAN lang=EN-US>42800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右（<SPAN lang=EN-US>17%</SPAN>票 ）；现货市场贸易商手中货源不多，实单多是商谈而定，成交暂无明显的改善。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7245</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>245</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：泰国假期结束、产胶国逐步进入割胶期，而在全球紧缩货币政策及日本汽车工业的现状以及美国经济增长担忧的环境下，国内外胶市易跌难涨。从盘面来看，沪胶<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约上方均线压力明显，期价上行动能不足，操作上可在<SPAN lang=EN-US>35000-35500</SPAN>区间内逢高抛空，注意风险控制。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘走势：<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="4" Day="20" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，纽约商业交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>(NYMEX)</SPAN>原油期货收盘上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.9%</SPAN>，创近两周的最高收盘价格，因库存报告显示上周美国原油和成品油库存均大幅下降，且股市上扬、美元走软。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月份日本原油进口同比减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.6</SPAN>％；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>PAJ:</SPAN>截至<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="4" Day="16" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>当周日本商业原油库存减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>27</SPAN>万 千升。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日黄埔到岸价：新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>684.83</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>15.35</SPAN>美元，到岸贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>14-15</SPAN>美元，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>380</SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>671.93</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>13.35</SPAN>美元。华南混调油最新交易估价：船用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>交易过驳价 至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4860-4870</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；库提价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4870-4880</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价持平，国产锅炉用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>交易价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4620-4670</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>448200</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>2000</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：国际政治局势不稳和市场对美国经济前景的不确定导致国际原油价格调整频繁，当前国际原油虽有反弹但走势不稳对华南地区燃料油现货市场信心提振有限，市场交投气氛冷清，短期内多数商家观望状态居多。从盘面上看，沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约期价止跌反弹，但上方均线系统压力明显，后市或运行于<SPAN lang=EN-US>4850-4960</SPAN>，建议区间操作。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>5 PTA<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油期货大幅收高，美国上周原油库存大幅减少。<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX6</SPAN>月原油期货上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.17</SPAN>美元，报收于每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>111.45</SPAN>美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、远东石化产能分别为<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年的两套<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>装置运行平稳，近期销售情况一般，产品全部供应合同用户，厂及库存低位，公司<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月合同挂牌价格执行<SPAN lang=EN-US>12000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>价格跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>美元至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1569</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>FOB</SPAN>韩国，欧洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>价格下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>13</SPAN>美元至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1589</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>FOB</SPAN>鹿特丹。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货价格：华东市场气氛欠佳，下游心态较为观望，市场报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>10850-10900</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，商谈成交在<SPAN lang=EN-US>10800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨水平，听闻市场有更低至<SPAN lang=EN-US>10750</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨水平，实盘不多。亚洲市场气氛安静，台产现货一般报盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1400</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，市场表现冷清，下游询盘较少，实际商谈成交或在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1390-1395</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，暂时未有实单成交听闻。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>9445</SPAN>张，较上一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1915</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1220</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：国际原油大幅回升<SPAN lang=EN-US>,PX</SPAN>维持小幅回落，翔鹭石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月合同挂牌价格执行<SPAN lang=EN-US>11400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。现货市场气氛欠佳，下游需求不旺，市场心态较为观望。江浙主流工厂涤丝产销多数在<SPAN lang=EN-US>7-8</SPAN>成，聚酯切片市场维持弱势震荡。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA 1109</SPAN>合约小幅收涨，期价下探至<SPAN lang=EN-US>10200</SPAN>一线后减仓回升，短线反抽<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线压力，将维持区间弱势震荡局面，操作上，空单适当逢低减仓。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">股指期货</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">瑞达期货：市场担忧情绪缓解，期指或迎来反弹<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘指数<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">道琼斯<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>12453.54<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>186.79<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1.52% <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">纳斯达克<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2802.51<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>57.54<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2.10%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1330.36<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>17.74<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1.35%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">富时<SPAN lang=EN-US>100<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>6022.26<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>125.39<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2.13%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>7249.19<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>209.88<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2.98%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAC40<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>4004.62<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>96.04<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2.46%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>C0MEX</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1502.5<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>7.4<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.49%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">原油<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>111.45<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3.17<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2.93%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>74.360<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>-0.618<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>-0.82%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">小结：周三美股大幅收高，道指创近<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>年最高收盘水平。英特尔与<SPAN lang=EN-US>IBM</SPAN>等多家科技企业的财报使投资者对企业盈利前景感到乐观。美国二手房销售数据超出预期，提升了市场情绪。受科技股上涨带动，欧洲收高，汽车制造商标致与菲亚特也强劲攀升。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>1. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">国务院：完善房地产税收政策，推进利率市场化；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>2. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">新版房贷压力测试从严，七大城市定为高风险地区；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">财政部<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>个税起征点拟提至<SPAN lang=EN-US>3000</SPAN>元，<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>级税率减至<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>级；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">发改委：第二季度通胀率仍可能居高不下；<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>5. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">存款准备金率今起正式上调<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.5%</SPAN>，货币政策释放从紧信号；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>6. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">工信部：“三驾马车”减速不改经济向好态势；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>7. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">韩国、泰国和马来西亚央行周三都采取了汇市干预措施，以抑制本币的飙升；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>8. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月二手房销量环比涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.7%</SPAN>超预期。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">持仓分析<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="4" Day="20" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="4" Day="20" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">月<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">前</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>20</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">名多头主力持单（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1105</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>20992</SPAN>手，空头主力持仓（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1105</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>26404</SPAN>手，净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>5412</SPAN>手，净空持仓减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>682</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">周三期指继续震荡小幅下跌。从持仓动向来看，多空均大幅增仓，整体上多头增仓较为显著，值得注意的是，中证期货大幅增持空仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>1789</SPAN>手且持仓量达前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名空头主力持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>1/4</SPAN>，而多头华泰长城大幅加仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>1206</SPAN>手。从板块资金流向来看，各板块分化明显，资金流入排名前列的是医药、建筑、有色金属等，而化工化纤、金融等板块出现在资金净流出，资金净流入约<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>亿。综合持仓、资金流向看，期指主力合约在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300</SPAN>点支撑较强，预计后市期指很可能将继续调整修复。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">主力合约<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1105</SPAN>周三报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3316.0</SPAN>点，预计周四<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1105</SPAN>合约运行区间在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3340--3290</SPAN>点之间。如上方冲破<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3340 </SPAN>点可以小多，止损下设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点；如下方破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3290</SPAN>点，可以介入空单，止损上设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点。如在区间内窄幅震荡，可以高空低多的策略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">合约名称 <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>强阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>强支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>HS 300<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3360<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3330<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3280<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3240<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>IF1105<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3370<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3340<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3290<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3250<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>IF1106<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3390<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3360<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3310<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3270<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>IF1109<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3430<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3400<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3350<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3310<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>IF1112<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3480<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3450<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3400<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3360<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">『免责声明：期市瞬息万变，盘中突发消息也将影响走势突变，投资人应盘
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