<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">金属产品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">铅锌<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜，伦锌跌幅超过<SPAN lang=EN-US>3%</SPAN>，成交量有所放大，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2451</SPAN>美元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.07%</SPAN>；伦铅遭受重挫，前一周的涨幅回吐殆尽，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2741</SPAN>美元，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.50%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美联储会议纪要：多数地区联储投票维持贴现率不变<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2.</SPAN>中国商务部长陈德铭：今年贸易顺差占<SPAN lang=EN-US>GDP</SPAN>的比重将会下降<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>18150-18250</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>250</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>475</SPAN>水<SPAN lang=EN-US>375</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>18100-18200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>250</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>525-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>425</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>铅报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17500-17700</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>库存方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>736425</SPAN>吨，较上交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>750</SPAN>吨，上海交易所锌期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>319380</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>2744</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铅库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>275450</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1125</SPAN>吨，上期所铅期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>3697</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>51</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>观点总结：基本面上，铅锌均处于供求过剩的局面。资金面上，沪锌主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单增加至近<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>万手；沪铅主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单减少至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1412</SPAN>手，净空单比例较高。整体来看，资金操作偏空。技术显示，沪锌挑战缺口阻力，突破难度较大；沪铅反弹空间有限。操作建议：沪锌已建空单持有，未入场者可逢高做空；沪铅逢高做空。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>本周二国际原油价格受高盛报告影响高位大幅下挫，拖累金价走低。<SPAN lang=EN-US>Comex</SPAN>金开盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>1465.0</SPAN>，最高触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>1466.8</SPAN>，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>1449.3</SPAN>，收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>1456.1</SPAN>，成交<SPAN lang=EN-US>172709</SPAN>手，持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>360059</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>．高盛周二预计布伦特原油价格将在未来数月里下跌近<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶，因投机买盘已推高油价至远离基本面的水平。该行周一向客户表示，重要大宗商品价格出现逆转的可能性很大，建议客户锁定获利。高盛的报告加剧原油跌势，并拖累黄金走低<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2</SPAN>．美国商务部<SPAN lang=EN-US>(DOC)</SPAN>周二公布的数据表明，美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月贸易赤字收窄。数据显示，美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月商品和服务贸易帐赤字月率下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.6%</SPAN>，至<SPAN lang=EN-US>457.6</SPAN>亿美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> <st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2011" Month="4" Day="12" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False">4<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月12</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>沪金1106</SPAN></SPAN>合约早盘大幅低开在<SPAN lang=EN-US>305.01</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，日内最高<SPAN lang=EN-US>306.36</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>304.97</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，收盘下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.13</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.69%</SPAN>，成交量<SPAN lang=EN-US>9040</SPAN>手，较上一个交易日小幅减少，持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>25670</SPAN>手，主力合约继续向<SPAN lang=EN-US>AU1112</SPAN>转移，投资者需注意。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>ETF</SPAN>持仓方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>全球最大的黄金上市交易基金<SPAN lang=EN-US>(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust</SPAN>表示，其黄金持仓量截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2011" Month="4" Day="13" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>13</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1,216.30</SPAN>吨，较上一个交易日减持<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.91</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>本周二高盛的投行报告令市场信心受挫，金价自高位延续修正整理，短期金价如在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1445-1430</SPAN>附近得到承接仍将震荡上攻，整体上价格仍处于上行周期，不破<SPAN lang=EN-US>1430</SPAN>反压趋势支撑一线仍以逢低买入为主。操作上，短线依托<SPAN lang=EN-US>304</SPAN>附近短多，中线<SPAN lang=EN-US>295</SPAN>多单继续持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">铜<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：昨日伦铜在亚洲市震荡下跌，晚间<SPAN lang=EN-US>21</SPAN>：<SPAN lang=EN-US>00</SPAN>之后加速下跌，尾盘跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.94%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9637</SPAN>，目前铜价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9650</SPAN>处表现处一定支撑，后期关注该位置的得失。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>。周二日本监管机构将福岛核泄漏事故的严重程度上调至<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>级，这导致给经济带来长期影响的忧虑升温，日本是全球重要的铜进口国。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>。长期看好商品市场的高盛称，未来几个月布兰特原油期货将大跌近<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>美元，称投机客令油价超过了基本面，该言论再次重创油市和商品市场。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：上海金属网铜现货报价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>72750-73100</SPAN>，较昨日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>600</SPAN>，现货较期货升水<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>，今日下游消费商并未低价跟进仅按需采购，前期保值盘也未能全面解套，现货量流出不多，供需继续拉锯；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.41-7.44</SPAN>，较昨日小幅上涨，表明内盘在铜价涨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>73500</SPAN>附近，上涨意愿偏弱。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存：<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2011" Month="4" Day="12" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>伦铜库存增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1000</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>446700</SPAN>，目前注销仓单占库存比处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.81%</SPAN>，较昨日小幅增加，不过仍处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>之下，预计后期库存有望继续增加。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日铜价再度呈现疲态，伦铜晚间大幅下挫，沪铜亚洲市低开低走，两市比价处于低位运行。昨日一向看多商品的高盛在报告中提示投资者对商品进行获利了结，以及日本将福岛核泄漏危机事故升级，从而引发了市场对经济前景的担忧，商品大多承压下跌。另外技术面上，铜价跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日均线，暂在<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线处得以支撑。今日沪铜料开至<SPAN lang=EN-US>71700</SPAN>附近，昨日收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>72500</SPAN>之下，空单继续持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv UnitName="mm" SourceValue="8" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on">8mm</st1:chmetcnv> Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4710</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="mm" SourceValue="20" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>5010</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>(1) </SPAN>纽柯钢公司保持<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月份长材价格平稳；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) FMG</SPAN>一季度铁矿石发货量受暴雨影响下降；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) </SPAN>中央认为住房问题已影响全局，必须解决；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(4) </SPAN>印度粉矿<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2011" Month="4" Day="12" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>指数参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>188</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>14113</SPAN>吨，持平。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>小结：周二<SPAN lang=EN-US>RB1110</SPAN>合约承压小幅回落，国内现货报价继续上扬对期钢带来支撑，但国际市场风险情绪略有降温，大宗商品普遍回调。操作上建议，短线空单尝试，止损<SPAN lang=EN-US>4920</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">铝<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">外盘：隔夜伦铝延续周一的跌势，低开低走，尾盘跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.04%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2654</SPAN>，接近于日内低点<SPAN lang=EN-US>2643.5</SPAN>。目前铝价再破<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日均线，在连续多日上涨之后，出现较大幅度的下跌，暗示其上涨势头有望放缓。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>周一长期看好商品市场的高盛称，未来几个月布兰特原油期货将大跌近<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>美元，称投机客令油价超过了基本面，该言论再次重创油市和商品市场。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：上海金属网铝现货报价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>16580-16600</SPAN>，较昨日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>70</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，现货较期货平水，据现货市场传来的消息称，随着现铝价格小幅下跌，下游消费持续冷清而贸易商低价出货积极性不高，整体市场成交极为清淡；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.28-6.30</SPAN>，较昨日小幅上涨，内盘在铝价下跌之际，小幅抗跌。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存：<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>伦铝库存小幅减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>2725</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4575250</SPAN>，目前注销仓单占库存比处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.01%</SPAN>，较昨日小幅减少。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日铝价再度表现出上涨乏力的走势，隔夜伦铝大幅下挫至日内低点，无任何反弹的意愿。而沪铝则表现为低开低走。此前刺激铝价上涨原油价格大幅下挫，铝价上行动能明显放缓。在昨日多单离场的前期下，沪铝主力合约今日料低开至<SPAN lang=EN-US>16700</SPAN>之下，可考虑建空单，止损设在<SPAN lang=EN-US>16850.<BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>1 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：世界最大原糖生产国<SPAN lang=EN-US>-</SPAN>巴西新增原糖投<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>放市场及大宗商品市场表现集体疲弱影响，本周二<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>美国＃<SPAN lang=EN-US>11 </SPAN>原糖期货市场小幅收跌，<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月原糖期货价格收盘下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.46</SPAN>美分，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>25.58</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅。在上周五下破<SPAN lang=EN-US>26</SPAN>美分后，此前的震荡区间下<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>沿已转为压力，近期支撑位将下移至<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR>1</SPAN>、马邦糖产量正朝着<SPAN lang=EN-US>900</SPAN>万吨迈进<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2</SPAN>、天津检验检疫局对<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年天津口岸首批进口原糖进行鉴重<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3</SPAN>、巴西开榨推迟对国际糖价形成支撑<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>4</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年美国增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>32.5</SPAN>万吨食糖进口配额<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内现货：国内现货小幅下调，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7310</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>833</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1644</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内主产区天气情况：两天内，桂林、柳州、河池、百色等市阴天到多云有分散小雨，我区其它地区多云。今天早晨我区部分地区有雾。南宁市：今天白天，多云，偏南风<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-2</SPAN>级，最低气温<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="21" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>21℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>，最高气温<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="30" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>30℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约反弹中受<SPAN lang=EN-US>7300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨压制，目前市场资金开始移仓<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>远月<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1201</SPAN>合约，使得远月合约走势相对强劲，但预计<SPAN lang=EN-US> 7000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/ </SPAN>吨对<SPAN lang=EN-US>1201</SPAN>合约将有明显压制作用。操作上，短期不宜过度追涨<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>、中线背靠<SPAN lang=EN-US>7320</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨一带逢高抛空为宜。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期棉大幅下跌，因商品市场投资者结清部位。指标<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE-5</SPAN>月期棉合约下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.85</SPAN>美分，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>199.73</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、据国家棉花市场监测系统新疆办事处从当地铁路部门了解到的情况，截至<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月底，新疆棉外运数量共计<SPAN lang=EN-US>158</SPAN>万吨，比去年同期减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>万吨。目前，铁路运力仍相对紧张，每天发运疆棉约<SPAN lang=EN-US>200</SPAN>个车皮，照此计算，截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2011" Month="4" Day="11" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，本年度新疆棉已运出约<SPAN lang=EN-US>165</SPAN>万吨，预计<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月份新疆棉能够全部运输出疆。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> 2</SPAN>、截止到<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2011" Month="3" Day="31" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>31</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年张家港保税区和物流园区保税棉花库存约<SPAN lang=EN-US>18344</SPAN>吨。当月有<SPAN lang=EN-US>1269</SPAN>吨棉花进区，<SPAN lang=EN-US>6499</SPAN>吨出区；今年前<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>个月累计进区<SPAN lang=EN-US>25325</SPAN>吨、出区<SPAN lang=EN-US>15611</SPAN>吨。当月库存最多的为印度棉，占总库存量的<SPAN lang=EN-US>49</SPAN>％；其次为美棉，约占<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>％，乌兹别克棉占<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>％，另有部分南美、非洲和其他中亚地区棉花。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 3</SPAN>、<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2011" Month="4" Day="11" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，进口棉中国主港报价普遍下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>5-8</SPAN>美分。尽管从目前看北半球棉花扩种幅度较大，但新年度的供应情况仍不甚乐观，中国纺织企业对外棉新花的热度不减。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>29513</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，与上一交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>89</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>580</SPAN>张，较上一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>357</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>主产区天气：未来三天，青藏高原东部和南部、川西高原北部、内蒙古东北部、黑龙江北部等地将有小到中雪或雨夹雪，西藏北部局地有大雪；西藏东南部、东北地区东部、湖北大部、江南大部、广西北部、西南地区大部等地将有小到中雨或阵雨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：美棉大幅回落，受商品市场获利了结带动。国内纺织企业继续处于棉纱库存的消化状态，纱线产销不畅，采购态度仍较冷淡。现货价格小幅下跌，市场成交清淡。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约小幅回落，期价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>31000</SPAN>（<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日线）处承压回落，短线考验下方均线支撑，中期维持高位震荡走势。操作上，逢高短空交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">豆类油脂：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">外盘：受高盛获利了结投资建议引发的商品抛售打压，豆类加速下跌，<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>大豆主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月合约收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>1329.75</SPAN>美分，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>38.75</SPAN>美分；<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>豆油主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月合约跟随下跌收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>57.24</SPAN>美分；因<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月份马来西亚棕榈油产出创<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>年来最大增幅，<SPAN lang=EN-US>BMD</SPAN>棕榈油期货主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>月合约下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>44</SPAN>令吉收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3373</SPAN>令吉<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；需求减少及各种市场参与者持续结清仓位刺激了抛盘，<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE 5</SPAN>月加拿大油菜籽期货下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>13.60</SPAN>加元，报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>568.60</SPAN>加元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>公吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">消息：国际方面，<SPAN lang=EN-US>USDA4</SPAN>月供需报告显示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010/11</SPAN>年度美 国豆油年末库存预估为<SPAN lang=EN-US>23.58</SPAN>亿磅，较<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月预估的<SPAN lang=EN-US>24.<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="磅" SourceValue="800000000" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="1" w:st="on">08<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>亿<SPAN lang=EN-US>磅</SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US>继续</SPAN></SPAN> 下调，远低于<SPAN lang=EN-US>09/10</SPAN>年度豆油年末库存预估的<SPAN lang=EN-US>33.58</SPAN>亿磅，<SPAN lang=EN-US>08/09 </SPAN>年度实际豆油年末库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>28.61</SPAN>亿磅。国内方面，海关最新统计 数字显示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月份我国食用植物油进口量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>32</SPAN>万吨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-3 </SPAN>月为<SPAN lang=EN-US>135</SPAN>万吨，与去年同期相比减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.7%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">现货：昨日豆类报价维持稳定，国内港口大豆分销价格维持于<SPAN lang=EN-US>4100-4200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，国内沿海油厂豆粕报价大约在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2970-3200 </SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。油脂现货报价稳中有降，沿海四级豆油约为<SPAN lang=EN-US>10000- 10100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；港口棕榈油报价集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9200-9600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；国内四 级菜油出厂价格处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>10000-10400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">仓单：大豆，<SPAN lang=EN-US>711</SPAN>张；豆粕，<SPAN lang=EN-US>1500</SPAN>张；豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>9985</SPAN>张；棕榈油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>张；均无变化。菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>12866</SPAN>张；较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">观点总结：<SPAN lang=EN-US>USDA</SPAN>月度供需报告再度巩固了市场的供需偏紧 格局，在较长时间内仍将发挥影响，而国内宏观调控依然趋紧 ，<SPAN lang=EN-US>MOPB</SPAN>继续提供利空题材，豆类油脂上行之途艰难。就二季度 整体行情而言，豆类油脂反复震荡整理概率较大；而就目前行 情来看，油脂中期多单在本周内择机离场，空单适量介入；豆类可暂时观望或短空操作。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">谷物：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、原油市场走软，豆价下跌，对早盘玉米价格利空。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、美 国大平原地区天气干燥，继续威胁小麦生长，制约了大盘的下跌空间 。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、灾后日本可能将会提高大米进口，大米需求改善，进一步支持了糙<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">米价格。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">外盘：周二<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米期货市场收低，跌幅较大。<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月玉米收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>753.50 </SPAN>美分，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>23.25</SPAN>美分；<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月玉米收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>637.50</SPAN>美分，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>19.50</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">现货价格：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、由于地域不同，玉米各地报价位于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2040</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>-2350</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/ </SPAN>吨之间，较<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>日基本无变化。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>日全国主要小麦交易城市价格大 多位于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>-2300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>日无变化。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、南方多数地区稻米 市场相对平稳。其中，安徽望江地区早籼稻米厂收购价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>;</SPAN>湖 南桃源地区早籼稻米厂收购价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2230</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均较昨日大致持平<SPAN lang=EN-US>.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">操作提示：早籼稻：维持宽幅震荡格局，上行动能逐渐减弱，在缺乏 利多题材的支撑下，预计短期维持震荡态势，暂时观望。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">玉米：外盘回调带动国内玉米震荡回落，近期市场观望心态较强，投 资者前期多单择机了结，关注下方<SPAN lang=EN-US>2350</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨支撑。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">郑麦：延续震荡反弹，上方承压于均线系统，短期仍有上行动能，少 量做多，关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>2900</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨压力。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">连塑<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、石油输出国组织<SPAN lang=EN-US>(</SPAN>欧佩克<SPAN lang=EN-US>)</SPAN>市场监督原油一揽子平均价上周再创新高。根据欧佩克秘书处<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>日公布的数据，欧佩克周油价上周达到每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>117.39</SPAN>美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>这是欧佩克周油价自<SPAN lang=EN-US>2008</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>月最后一周以来的最高水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、近日在<SPAN lang=EN-US>CMAI</SPAN>世界石化会议上发布报告称，北美乙烯生产商前景看好，预计<SPAN lang=EN-US>2015</SPAN>年前该地区乙烯工业将保持强劲增长。因为与石脑油裂解装置相比，北美生产商采用的乙烷裂解工艺具有突出的成本优势，其产品在国际市场的竞争力较强。此外，美国经济恢复增长，该国的乙烯消费也正在强劲反弹。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格走势基本平稳。上海石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>MH602</SPAN>膜料报<SPAN lang=EN-US>11300</SPAN>元，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>200</SPAN>元。扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>膜料报<SPAN lang=EN-US>11300</SPAN>元，燕山石化调拨<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="ac" SourceValue="100" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>100AC</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>膜料报<SPAN lang=EN-US>13500</SPAN>元。齐鲁石化调拨<SPAN lang=EN-US>TN26</SPAN>膜料报<SPAN lang=EN-US>13500</SPAN>元，茂名石化调拨<SPAN lang=EN-US>2426H</SPAN>膜料报<SPAN lang=EN-US>13500</SPAN>元，均与上一交易日持平。原料方面：亚洲乙烯走稳，市场交投缓慢。市场人士密切关注供需面变化。三菱化工计划在<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2011" Month="5" Day="20" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>重启其年产<SPAN lang=EN-US>47.6</SPAN>万吨第<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>号石脑油蒸汽裂解装置。该装置于<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2011" Month="3" Day="11" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>地震中关闭。该公司还表示计划在<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2011" Month="6" Day="27" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>27</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>重启其年产<SPAN lang=EN-US>37.5</SPAN>万吨第<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>号石脑油蒸汽裂解装置，该装置在地震中关闭，并在<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2011" Month="5" Day="14" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>14</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>完成定期检修。市场人士称<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>号石脑油装置重启将可能提早，此举将缓解我国目前乙烯供应紧张局面。市场参与者谨慎观望，暂无报盘。东南亚市场平稳。由于壳牌公司年产<SPAN lang=EN-US>80</SPAN>万吨蒸汽裂解装置重启时间不确定，多数商家谨慎观望，报盘稀少。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7198</SPAN>张，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日连塑低开高走，盘中波动剧烈，成交与持仓均大幅上升。显示短期多空双方分岐严重。基本面上，全球流动性充裕，亚洲乙烯走势坚挺对其产生有力支撑。但原油连续大幅回落，对连塑的成本支撑作用减弱，连塑的反弹有可能因此而夭折，建议手中多单可在今日早盘低开后的反弹中获利了结，短期暂是以日内操作为宜<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR>2 PVC<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、今年一季度，齐鲁石化氯碱厂聚氯乙烯产量累计完成<SPAN lang=EN-US>146757</SPAN>吨，超出计划产量<SPAN lang=EN-US>1757</SPAN>吨，打破去年同期纪录。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR>2</SPAN>、近日在<SPAN lang=EN-US>CMAI</SPAN>世界石化会议上发布报告称，北美乙烯生产商前景看好，预计<SPAN lang=EN-US>2015</SPAN>年前该地区乙烯工业将保持强劲增长。因为与石脑油裂解装置相比，北美生产商采用的乙烷裂解工艺具有突出的成本优势，其产品在国际市场的竞争力较强。此外，美国经济恢复增长，该国的乙烯消费也正在强劲反弹。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货市场继续明显回升。<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFR</SPAN>远东报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1172</SPAN>美元，与昨日持平。华东电石法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8000</SPAN>元，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>元，华东乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8300</SPAN>元，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元。西北、西南、华中电石法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>也各有<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>元的上涨，华中乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>则上则了<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>元，居各地之首。原料方面：电石价格也略有回升，西北，西南，华北，东北均上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，华东、华南与华中则与昨日持平。西北电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3400</SPAN>元，华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3900</SPAN>元。市场成交一般。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>674</SPAN>张，无变化。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>窄幅震荡，全天均维持缩量整理格局。基本面上，全球流动性充裕，亚洲现货走势坚挺对其产生一定的支撑。但原油连续大幅回落及下游需求复苏缓慢对其形成一定压力，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>的反弹有可能夭折，建议手中多单可在今日早盘低开后的反弹中获利了结，短期暂是以日内操作为宜<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">沪胶<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>TOCOM</SPAN>橡胶期货<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>日从五周高点回落，因<SPAN lang=EN-US>IMF</SPAN>下调美国和日本经济增长预期，导致原油价格下<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>跌，而且引发了用于制造轮胎的橡胶需求可能放缓的担忧。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月全国汽车销量<SPAN lang=EN-US>182.85</SPAN>万辆，增速下滑明显；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、马来西亚<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月天然橡胶产量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>91,449</SPAN>吨，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>同比增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>13%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：目前云南标一胶市场参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>39200-39300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，海南标一胶参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>39000- 39200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，越南<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="l" SourceValue="3" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3L</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>胶有报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>41000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右（<SPAN lang=EN-US>17%</SPAN>票），泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US>3#</SPAN>烟片胶有报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>43500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>（<SPAN lang=EN-US>17%</SPAN>票），小烟片在<SPAN lang=EN-US>42200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右（<SPAN lang=EN-US>17%</SPAN>票）；现货市场价格稳中小幅调整，实单多是商谈而定。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>亚洲各橡胶主产区天气预报如下：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>曼谷<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="33" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on">33℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="26" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>26℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>越南<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>河内<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阴<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="26" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on">26℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="19" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>19℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>胡志明市<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阴<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="34" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on">34℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="24" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>24℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>马来西亚<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>吉隆坡<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="32" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on">32℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="24" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>24℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>印尼<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雅加达<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="32" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on">32℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="25" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>25℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8630</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1075</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：泰国长假以及部分地区洪水带来的供应偏紧支撑沪胶期价，但割胶期的到来、汽车工业转淡<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>以及周边市场的不确定性限制了期价的上方空间。从盘面来看，沪胶<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约震荡于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日均线附近，下方均<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>线支撑较好，但<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线对期价压力明显，建议短线操作。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2011" Month="4" Day="12" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，纽约商业交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>(NYMEX)</SPAN>原油期货收盘大幅下挫，因预测人士一致认为油价高企正<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>在损害需求并拖累全球经济增长。市场关注美国库存数据的公布。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、沙特下调官方售价，中东市场疲软；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、沙特下调官方售价，中东市场疲软。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>日黄埔到岸价：新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>713.44</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.90</SPAN>美元，到岸贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>14-15</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>380</SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>696.74</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.91</SPAN>美元。华南混调油最新交易估价：船用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>交易过驳价<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4850-4860</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；库提价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4860-4870</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价持平，国产锅炉用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>交易价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4600-4650</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>均价持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>469500</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1900</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：利比亚石油出口中断令全球市场过剩供应量减少，而尼日利亚即将进行总统选举，原油供应<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>前景堪忧，但原油价格过快上涨使得需求受到抑制，从而加剧了投资者的担忧情绪，原油期价大幅下挫也将<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>拖累沪油市场。从盘面上看，沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约回落至均线系统密集处，短期期价有继续向下调整的需求，后市<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>测试<SPAN lang=EN-US>4900</SPAN>一线支撑，偏空思路操作。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>5 PTA<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油期货大幅下跌，因市场忧虑高油价打压需求。<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX5</SPAN>月原油期货下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.67</SPAN>美元，报收于每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>106.25</SPAN>美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>BP</SPAN>珠海<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>装置满负荷平稳运行，产能<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>万<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年的<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>装置计划<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月底停车检修，计划检修时间<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>周左右。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、中海油位于惠州的<SPAN lang=EN-US>84</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年的<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>于<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2011" Month="3" Day="1" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>检修，目前此装置检修结束，预计在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>18</SPAN>号开工。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货价格：华东<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场持续弱势，市场持货方少量报盘降至<SPAN lang=EN-US>11250-11300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，买方拿货心态谨慎，实际商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，此价位有实盘达成。亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场气氛偏弱，台货少量报盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1460</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，市场买盘稀少，市场主流成交在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1450</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，韩货成交在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1440</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，实盘清淡。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>10668</SPAN>张，较上一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>46</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1669</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：高盛建议投资者锁定在大宗商品市场的获利，国际原油价格大幅下跌，现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>出现回落，短期<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>仍面承压；<SPAN lang=EN-US>4-5</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>工厂检修计划增多，供应减少对<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货有所支撑，现货市场气氛回落，买家追涨较为谨慎；江浙下游涤纶丝在阶段性补仓之下近期产销均表现良好。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA 1109</SPAN>合约减仓回落，期价低开处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线区域整理，短线在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11000</SPAN>上方承压，预计将维持<SPAN lang=EN-US>10000-11500</SPAN>区间震荡，操作上，短空交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">股指期货</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">瑞达期货：多空对峙，期指或窄幅震荡<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>道琼斯<SPAN lang=EN-US> 12263.58 -117.53 -0.95% <BR></SPAN>纳斯达克<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2744.79 -26.72 -0.96%<BR></SPAN>标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500 1314.16 -10.30 -0.78%<BR></SPAN>富时<SPAN lang=EN-US>100 5964.47 -88.97 -1.47%<BR></SPAN>德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX 7102.91 -101.95 -1.42%<BR></SPAN>法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAC40 3976.60 -62.10 -1.54%<BR>C0MEX</SPAN>黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1453.6 -14.5 -0.99%<BR>NYMEX</SPAN>原油<SPAN lang=EN-US> 106.25 -3.67 -3.34%<BR></SPAN>美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 74.862 -0.200 -0.27%<BR></SPAN>小结：周二美股收低。油价连续两日大幅下跌、日本核危机事态的恶化以及美国企业财报披露季开局不利，令市场承压。欧洲股市大幅下滑，大宗商品相关股票领跌。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1. </SPAN>一季度经济数据<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>日公布：通胀压力未减，<SPAN lang=EN-US>CPI</SPAN>料达<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2. FDI</SPAN>累计余额近万亿美元，我国存变身债务国隐忧；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3. 1400</SPAN>亿正回购创<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个月新高；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>4. </SPAN>银监会发文再次收紧平台贷，防止借保障房套取贷款；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>5. </SPAN>首季逆差中少见贸易结构调整；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>6. </SPAN>原油需求引发忧虑，油价大跌；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>7. </SPAN>日本将福岛第一核电站核泄漏事故等级提高至<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>级与切尔诺贝利同级；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>8. IMF</SPAN>：就中国经济面临的中期风险发出异常严厉警告，中国信贷和资产泡沫可能破裂。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>持仓分析<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2011" Month="4" Day="12" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2011" Month="4" Day="12" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False">4<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月12</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>前</SPAN></st1:chsdate>20</SPAN>名多头主力持单（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>14210</SPAN>手，空头主力持仓（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>16868</SPAN>手，净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>2658</SPAN>手，净空持仓减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>229</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>周二期指延续周一走势，放量震荡走低。从持仓动向来看，因主力合约周五到期，多空双方移仓动作明显，多头恋战情绪降低，日内尾盘期指小幅拉升过程中减仓显著。从沪深<SPAN lang=EN-US>300</SPAN>板块资金流向来看，钢铁、电力等板块受青睐，而煤炭、有色、中小板块净资金则大幅流出，金融板块持续流出。结合持仓、资金流向和基本面看，期指短期仍面临调整，继续震荡向下概率较高。因多空分歧加剧且适逢接近到期，期指震荡加剧，注意控制仓位。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>主力合约<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>周二报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3326.0</SPAN>点，预计周三<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>合约运行区间在：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3340-3280</SPAN>点之间。如上方冲破<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3340 </SPAN>点可以小多，止损下设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点；如下方破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3280</SPAN>点，可以介入空单，止损上设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点。如在区间内窄幅震荡，可以高空低多的策略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>合约名称<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>HS 300 3370 3340 3280 3250<BR>IF1104 3370 3340 3280 3250<BR>IF1105 3380 3350 3290 3260<BR>IF1106 3400 3370 3310 3280<BR>IF1109 3440 3410 3350 3320<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">『免责声明：期市瞬息万变，盘中突发消息也将影响走势突变，投资人应盘
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