<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">金属产品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>本周一因有报道称利比亚卡扎菲接受非盟提出的停火路线图计划，市场避险情绪消退带动金价自高位回落。<SPAN lang=EN-US>Comex</SPAN>金开盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>1475.8</SPAN>，最高触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>1477.2</SPAN>，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>1461.7</SPAN>，收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>1468.1</SPAN>，成交<SPAN lang=EN-US>104540</SPAN>手，持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>361366</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>．<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>有报道称利比亚领导人卡扎菲已经接受非洲联盟提出的停火路线图计划，避险情绪降温，油价回落并带动金价走低。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2</SPAN>．美联储副主席耶伦<SPAN lang=EN-US>(Janet Yellen)</SPAN>周一表示，考虑到高失业率和温和的通胀水平，宽松货币政策仍然合适<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> <st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2011" Month="4" Day="11" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False">4<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月11</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>沪金1106</SPAN></SPAN>合约早盘小幅高开在<SPAN lang=EN-US>309.50</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，日内最高<SPAN lang=EN-US>309.50</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>307.00</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，收盘上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.45</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.15%</SPAN>，成交量<SPAN lang=EN-US>9788</SPAN>手，较上一个交易日小幅增加，持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>30226</SPAN>手，主力合约逐渐向<SPAN lang=EN-US>AU1112</SPAN>转移，投资者需注意。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>ETF</SPAN>持仓方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>全球最大的黄金上市交易基金<SPAN lang=EN-US>(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust</SPAN>表示，其黄金持仓量截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2011" Month="4" Day="12" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1,217.21</SPAN>吨，与上一个交易日持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>本周一市场避险情绪受利比亚停火消息影响开始消退，国际金价自历史高位展开回撤，目前金价经过连续上涨后技术出现短线背离，价格短期将向<SPAN lang=EN-US>1445</SPAN>附近进行回测整理，整体上价格仍处于上行周期，短线注意下方<SPAN lang=EN-US>1445-1430</SPAN>的波段承接情况。操作上，短线依托<SPAN lang=EN-US>304</SPAN>附近短多，中线<SPAN lang=EN-US>295</SPAN>多单继续持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR> <BR>2 </SPAN>铅锌<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜，伦锌高位遇阻，日线上影线较长，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2528</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.12%</SPAN>；伦铅盘中再创<SPAN lang=EN-US>2008</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月以来新高，但最终以日内最低价收盘，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2840</SPAN>美元，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.39%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>有色产品出口退税率将调低<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>意在整合有色行业<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2.</SPAN>环保风暴将至<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>铅酸蓄电池行业命悬一线<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>18400-18500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上交易日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>250</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>420-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>320</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>18350-18450</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>250</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>470-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>370</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>铅报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17600-17800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>库存方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>735675</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>300</SPAN>吨，上海交易所锌期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>316636</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>635</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铅库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>276575</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>975</SPAN>吨，上期所铅期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>3646</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>3346</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>观点总结：基本面上，铅锌均处于供求过剩的局面。资金面上，沪锌主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单增加至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.8</SPAN>万手以上；沪铅主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单减少至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1222</SPAN>手，净空单比例较高。整体来看，资金操作偏空。技术显示，沪锌挑战缺口阻力，突破难度较大；沪铅反弹空间有限。操作建议：沪锌继续观望，激进者可依托缺口上沿做空，<SPAN lang=EN-US>19300</SPAN>止损；沪铅多单离场后暂时观望。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR>3 </SPAN>钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="mm" SourceValue="8" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>8mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4680</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="mm" SourceValue="20" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>5000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>(1) </SPAN>银监会发文再次收紧平台贷，防止借保障房套取贷款；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) </SPAN>中钢协：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月下旬粗钢日均产量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>192.22</SPAN>万吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) </SPAN>国开行今年将向保障房建设放贷<SPAN lang=EN-US>1000</SPAN>亿元；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(4) </SPAN>印度粉矿<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2011" Month="4" Day="11" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>指数参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>188</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>14113</SPAN>吨，持平。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>小结：周一<SPAN lang=EN-US>RB1110</SPAN>合约于高位震荡，原材料价格及现货价的上涨继续对钢市起到支撑，加上近期需求的增加促使库存继续下降，但<SPAN lang=EN-US>4950</SPAN>附近也显示了一定的压力，另外隔夜外盘大宗商品跟随油价回落。操作上建议，多单逢高减仓，追空注意风险。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">铜<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">外盘：昨日伦铜在亚洲市创下<SPAN lang=EN-US>9944.75</SPAN>的近期高点，不过此后自高点回落，晚间延续跌势，尾盘跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.68%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9827.</SPAN>因此前铜价在<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2011" Month="3" Day="23" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>23</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>的高点为<SPAN lang=EN-US> 9783</SPAN>，此次铜价要想继续上涨，预计会在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9800</SPAN>附近有所震荡。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>。中国海关周日表示，中国<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月未锻造铜及铜材进口<SPAN lang=EN-US>304</SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>299</SPAN>吨，较上月的<SPAN lang=EN-US>235</SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>469</SPAN>吨上升<SPAN lang=EN-US>29.2%</SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月废铜进口<SPAN lang=EN-US>39</SPAN>万吨，高于上月的<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">现货方面：上海金属网铜现货报价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>73300-73700</SPAN>，较昨日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1050</SPAN>，现货较期货贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>，今日现货出现贴水状态，出货困难。部分保值商被套，无法出货，呈现供需两淡的局面；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.40-7.41</SPAN>，较上周五小幅下跌，表明内盘在铜价涨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>73500</SPAN>附近，上涨意愿偏弱。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">库存：<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2011" Month="4" Day="11" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>伦铜库存增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1525</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>445700</SPAN>，目前注销仓单占库存比处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.56%</SPAN>，较昨日小幅增加，不过仍处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>之下，预计后期库存有望继续增加。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">观点总结：昨日铜价上涨动能有所放缓，伦铜震荡收跌，沪铜冲高回落，两市比价继续走低。作为铜需求的两个指标即中国铜进口量和伦铜库存均表现不佳，进口数据的低迷和伦铜库存的持续增加，使得铜价上行面临阻力。另外技术面上，铜价触及此前高点<SPAN lang=EN-US>9783</SPAN>之后，要想继续上涨，料需要几日的震荡走势。今日沪铜料开至<SPAN lang=EN-US>72700</SPAN>附近，下方如跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>72500</SPAN>，多头可考虑先行离场。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">铝<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">外盘：隔夜伦铝在创下<SPAN lang=EN-US>2720</SPAN>的近期新高之后，自高点出现大幅回落，尾盘跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.03%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2682</SPAN>，接近于日内低点<SPAN lang=EN-US>2677.5.</SPAN>目前铝价跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日均线，在连续多日上涨之后，出现较大幅度的下跌，暗示其上涨势头有望放缓。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>原油价格在美国时段大幅下挫令市场觉察到一丝不安，高风险货币澳元、纽元兑美元表现比较疲弱。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">现货方面：上海金属网铝现货报价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>16650-16670</SPAN>，较昨日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，现货较期货平水，据现货市场传来的消息称，随着现铝价格稳步上涨，贸易商出货积极性提高，同时下游加工企业逢低入市采购积极性也大增，整体市况活跃；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.21-6.22</SPAN>，较上周五继续下跌，内弱外强格局明显。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">库存：<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>伦铝库存小幅减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>4250</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4577525</SPAN>，目前注销仓单占库存比处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.09%</SPAN>，较昨日小幅增加。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">观点总结：昨日铝价表现出上涨乏力的走势，隔夜伦铝自高位回落至日内低点，而沪铝则表现为冲高回落。此前刺激铝价上涨的美元指数和原油价格均发生不利变化，铝价上行动能明显放缓。今日沪铝的前期多单可考虑先行离场，下方如跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>16700</SPAN>，则考虑建空单，否则观望为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>受美国增加食糖进口配额的刺激，本周一<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>美国＃<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>原糖期货市场小幅收高，<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月合约收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>26.04</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅，全天上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US> 38</SPAN>个点。<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>月合约收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>24.84</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅，全天下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>个点。盘面上，受美国农业部（<SPAN lang=EN-US>USDA</SPAN>）增加食糖进口配额消息的提振，<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>合约跳空高开后横盘震荡直至收盘，在上周五下破<SPAN lang=EN-US>26</SPAN>美分后，此前的震荡区间下沿已转为压力，近期支撑位将下移至<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>美<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、法国甜菜单产有望提高<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%-6%<BR> 2</SPAN>、桂南甘蔗出苗良好，下一榨季增产有望<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>国内现货小幅上调，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7320</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>833</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1644</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内主产区天气情况：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>两天内，河池、百色、桂林、贺州等市阴天到多云有分散小雨，我区其它地区多云。今天早晨我区部分地区有<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>南<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>宁市<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>今天白天到晚上，多云，偏南风<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-2</SPAN>级，最高气温<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="30" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>30℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>，最低气温<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="21" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>21℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约反弹中受<SPAN lang=EN-US>7300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨压制，目前市场资金开始移仓远月<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1201</SPAN>合约，使得远月合约走势相对强劲，但预计<SPAN lang=EN-US> 7000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨对<SPAN lang=EN-US>1201</SPAN>合约将有明显压制作用。操作上，短期不宜过度追涨、中线背靠<SPAN lang=EN-US>7320</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨一带逢高抛空为宜。<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期棉收涨，因投资者回补空头。指标<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE-5</SPAN>月期棉合约上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.61</SPAN>美分，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>204.58</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>USDA</SPAN>公布的<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月供需报告下调了<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010/11</SPAN>年度全球棉花产量，而调高了消费量，使得期末库存减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>2%</SPAN>。预计全球期末库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>904.7</SPAN>万吨，占全部消费量的<SPAN lang=EN-US>36%</SPAN>，库存消费比是自<SPAN lang=EN-US>1993/94</SPAN>年度以来的最低。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> 2</SPAN>、海关数据显示：今年一季度我国纺织品服装出口平稳增长，其中服装出口<SPAN lang=EN-US>284.6</SPAN>亿美元，增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>18.4%</SPAN>；纺织品<SPAN lang=EN-US>201.7</SPAN>亿美元，增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>32.7%</SPAN>；鞋类<SPAN lang=EN-US>88.3</SPAN>亿美元，增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>21.6%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 3</SPAN>、<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2011" Month="4" Day="8" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，进口棉中国主港报价变化不大，各品种仅有小幅涨跌。从美棉出口周报来看，目前纺织企业对新年度棉花的采购稳步增加，而对近期装船的采购非常有限。随着本年度美棉销售任务的顺利完成，市场的关注重点已经转向新年度的供应。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>29602</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，与上一交易日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>587</SPAN>张，较上一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>356</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>主产区天气：未来三天，西藏大部、青海南部、川西高原北部、黑龙江北部、内蒙古东北部等地有小到中雪或雨夹雪，其中，西藏东北部的局部地区有大雪；西藏东南部、甘肃东南部、湖北南部、江淮南部、西南地区大部、江南大部、华南北部等地将有小到中雨或阵雨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：美国农业部发布<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月全球棉花供需预测月报，与上月相比，报告下调了<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010/11</SPAN>年度全球棉花产量，而调高了消费量，使得期末库存减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>2%</SPAN>，这提振棉花市场。国内纺织企业继续处于棉纱库存的消化状态，采购态度仍较冷淡。现货价格小幅上涨，部分棉企主动稳定报价，市场成交清淡。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约震荡收高，期价上冲至<SPAN lang=EN-US>31000</SPAN>（<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日线）后有所回落，短线围绕<SPAN lang=EN-US>30000</SPAN>关口整理，中期维持高位震荡走势。操作上，短线交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">豆类油脂：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">外盘：受中国需求放缓及南美大豆丰收预期打压，<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>大 豆主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月合约收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>1368.5</SPAN>美分，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>23.75</SPAN>美分；<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>豆油主 力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月合约跟随下跌收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>58.82</SPAN>美分；归因于美国库存下降的预 期，而且原油价格也上涨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2008</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月来最高水平，<SPAN lang=EN-US>BMD</SPAN>棕榈油 期货主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>月合约上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>18</SPAN>令吉收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3417</SPAN>令吉<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；投机帐户稳定清仓，<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE 5</SPAN>月加拿大油菜籽期货收盘下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.70</SPAN>加元，报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US> 582.20</SPAN>加元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>公吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">消息：国际方面，行业分析师表示，今年三月底马来西亚棕榈油库存可能达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>160-165</SPAN>万吨，创下自去年十二月份以来的 最高水平。国内方面，市场消息称，近日国家发改委已经驳回了有关小包装油涨价的申请，并要求中粮及益海集团两家大型 油企在未来两个月内不得上调小包装油价格。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">现货：昨日豆类报价维持稳定，国内港口大豆分销价格维持于<SPAN lang=EN-US>4100-4200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，国内沿海油厂豆粕报价大约在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2970-3200 </SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。油脂现货报价稳中有涨，幅度在<SPAN lang=EN-US>50-150</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，沿海四 级豆油约为<SPAN lang=EN-US>9950-10100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；港口棕榈油报价集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9300- 9600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；国内四级菜油出厂价格处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>10000-10400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨水平 。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">仓单：大豆，<SPAN lang=EN-US>711</SPAN>张；豆粕，<SPAN lang=EN-US>1500</SPAN>张；棕榈油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>张；均无变化。豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>9985</SPAN>张；较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>2000</SPAN>张。菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>12860 </SPAN>张；较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>57</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">观点总结：<SPAN lang=EN-US>USDA</SPAN>月度供需报告再度巩固了市场的供需偏紧 格局，在较长时间内仍将发挥影响，而国内宏观调控依然趋紧 ，商品上行之途艰难。就二季度整体行情而言，豆类油脂反复震荡整理概率较大；而就四月行情而言，油脂中期多单以半个 月有周期持有，短线震荡思路；豆类可暂时观望或短空操作。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">谷物早盘提示：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、因国内外玉米价差巨大，短期中国进口玉米批量到货不易，夏季供应形势不容乐观。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、东北稻米市场缺乏足够需 求，静待市场回暖。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、美国农业部在四月份供需报告中将小麦期末库存数据下调了<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.5%</SPAN>，为<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.39</SPAN>亿蒲式耳。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">外盘：周一<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米期货市场收高，但涨幅小于隔夜电子盘。<SPAN lang=EN-US>5 </SPAN>月玉米收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>776</SPAN>美分，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>美分；<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月玉米收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>657.25</SPAN>美分， 上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.25</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">现货价格：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、全国各主要城市国产二等小麦价格今本稳定。其 中天津<SPAN lang=EN-US>2260</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，郑州<SPAN lang=EN-US>2120</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较<SPAN lang=EN-US>10 </SPAN>日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，淄博<SPAN lang=EN-US>2160</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">、<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>日各地早籼稻价格基本在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。其中，合肥<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2160</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，九江<SPAN lang=EN-US>2200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，福州<SPAN lang=EN-US>2200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，广州<SPAN lang=EN-US>2250</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨 ，较<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日无变化。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">、<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>日全国现货价格维持高位，全国玉米均价达到每吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>2175</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US> /</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">操作提示：早籼稻：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约高开后小幅上涨，日<SPAN lang=EN-US>K</SPAN>线触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>2570 </SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨一带压力线，预计期价短期将有回调可能，操作上前期多单了结，以观望为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">玉米：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约高开后全天维持强势运行，从日<SPAN lang=EN-US>K</SPAN>线上看，<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>日 收盘价仍然收在收敛三角形区间内，趋势仍不明朗，短线保持 观望。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">郑麦：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约全天走势震荡偏弱，期价短线仍有进一步上攻 可能，多单谨慎持有，收盘价跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日均线可离场。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">连塑<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月，中国塑料制品出口量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>622103</SPAN>吨，环比增<SPAN lang=EN-US>70.7%</SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月累计出口<SPAN lang=EN-US>1696473</SPAN>吨，同比增<SPAN lang=EN-US>8%</SPAN>。数据还显示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月初级形状的塑料进口量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>222</SPAN>万吨，环比增<SPAN lang=EN-US>48%</SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月累计进口<SPAN lang=EN-US>591</SPAN>万吨，同比降<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.9%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月份我国塑料制品出口量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>622,103</SPAN>吨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-3</SPAN>月为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1,696,473</SPAN>吨。与去年同期相增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>8%.<BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格平稳运行。扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>膜料报<SPAN lang=EN-US>11300</SPAN>元，与上一交易日持平。原料方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFR</SPAN>东北亚小涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1391</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。受现货供应紧张影响，卖方意向价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1400</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFR</SPAN>东北亚。日本和韩国部分蒸汽裂解装置因故障停车。东南亚乙烯价格大涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1301</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFR</SPAN>东南亚。<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月份现货需求迅速回升，终端用户购买欲望增强，受壳牌装置即将重启影响，买方对<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月市场持谨慎观望态度。由于近期乙烯下游衍生品生产利润为负值，多数终端用户意向价格低于<SPAN lang=EN-US>1400</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFR</SPAN>东南亚。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7138</SPAN>张，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1943</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日连塑反弹受阻，上方<SPAN lang=EN-US>12200</SPAN>一线的压力开始显现。基本面上，央行再度加息及下游需求不振对其产生一定的压力。且经连续反弹，部分投资者有获利了结的需要。但亚洲乙烯走势坚挺对其产生有力支撑。预计经短暂整理后仍将延续反弹行情，投资者在可<SPAN lang=EN-US>11870</SPAN>一线逢低小幅建多，破<SPAN lang=EN-US>11830</SPAN>止损，上方目标<SPAN lang=EN-US>11250</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR>2 PVC<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、日本政府经济产业省公布的最新统计数据显示，尽管部分乙烯生产厂在<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2011" Month="3" Day="11" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>大地震以后被关闭，然而，日本<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月份的乙烯产量仍比去年同期增加了<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.1%</SPAN>。乙烯产量从去年同期的<SPAN lang=EN-US>51.41</SPAN>万吨增加到了<SPAN lang=EN-US>51.48</SPAN>万吨。日本<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月份的乙烯产量比<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月份下降了<SPAN lang=EN-US>15%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月份的乙烯出口数字迄今还没有公布<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、台湾经济部一位官员近期说，如果放弃建议中的石化发展项目，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2015</SPAN>年台湾将面临乙烯短缺局面。目前年产量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>300</SPAN>万吨，能满足岛内<SPAN lang=EN-US>97%</SPAN>的乙烯需求，但如果不很快给国光项目开绿灯的话，台湾产业将面临乙烯短缺，油裂解装置在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2015</SPAN>年关闭之后，将难以与该地区的其他对手竞争。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货市场明显回升。<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFR</SPAN>远东报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1172</SPAN>美元，与昨日持平。华东电石法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7900</SPAN>元，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>元，华东乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8250</SPAN>元，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>200</SPAN>元。电石价格也略有回升，西北电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3350</SPAN>元，华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3900</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>均与昨日持平。市场成交一般。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>674</SPAN>张，增加了<SPAN lang=EN-US>480</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>反弹受阻，尾盘略有回落，显示经连续反弹，短线有一定的获利抛压。基本面上，央行再度加息及下游需求复苏缓慢对其形成一定压力，但亚洲现货走势坚挺对其产生一定的支撑。预计后市<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>仍将延续反弹走势。激进的投资者可以<SPAN lang=EN-US>8330——8350</SPAN>一线轻仓建多，破<SPAN lang=EN-US>8300</SPAN>元止损。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">沪胶<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>TOCOM</SPAN>橡胶期货创五周来新高，因市场担忧泰国新年期间橡胶供应将收紧。<SPAN lang=EN-US>TOCOM 9</SPAN>月交割的<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>橡胶期货<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>日一度上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.9%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>481.9</SPAN>日元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>千克（<SPAN lang=EN-US>5,688</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>公吨），为<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2011" Month="3" Day="3" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>以来的最高水平，收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>475.2 </SPAN>日元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>千克。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、海关总署公布，中国<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月天然橡胶进口量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>21</SPAN>万吨，环比大涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>90.9%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、越南农业部表示，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>越南<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年天然橡胶出口预计较去年提升<SPAN lang=EN-US>5.6%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>82.7</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：目前云南标一胶市场参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>39200-39500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，海南标一胶参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>39100- 39400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，越南<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="l" SourceValue="3" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3L</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>胶有报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>41000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右（<SPAN lang=EN-US>17%</SPAN>票），泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US>3#</SPAN>烟片胶有报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>43500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>（<SPAN lang=EN-US>17%</SPAN>票），小烟片在<SPAN lang=EN-US>42200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右（<SPAN lang=EN-US>17%</SPAN>票）；现货市场价格跟随调涨，实单多是商谈而定。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>亚洲各橡胶主产区天气预报如下：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>曼谷<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>晴<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="33" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on">33℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="26" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>26℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>越南<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>河内<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>晴<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="26" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on">26℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="18" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>18℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>胡志明市<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阴<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="34" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on">34℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="24" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>24℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>马来西亚<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>吉隆坡<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="31" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on">31℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="24" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>24℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>印尼<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雅加达<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="32" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on">32℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="25" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>25℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>9705</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>285</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：泰国南部出现持续强降雨影响供应，推动期价强势上行，但随着割胶期的到来及汽车工业转淡，后市期价上行空间受限。从盘面来看，沪胶<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约冲高回落，<SPAN lang=EN-US>38000</SPAN>一线对期价形成较大压力，短期<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>上试<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线，建议短线操作。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR>4 </SPAN>沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2011" Month="4" Day="11" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，纽约商业交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>(NYMEX)</SPAN>原油期货大幅下跌，回落至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>110</SPAN>美元下方，因交易员<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>越来越担心油价不断上涨将影响需求。<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>五月轻质低硫原油期货结算价跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.87</SPAN>美元，至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>109.92</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.5%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期货交易所布伦特原油期货五月合约跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.67</SPAN>美元，至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>123.98</SPAN>美元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.2%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、全球石油市场供过于求<SPAN lang=EN-US>-</SPAN>伊朗政府官员；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、沙特计划加大亚洲原油供应<SPAN lang=EN-US>-</SPAN>沙特石油大臣。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：目前华南地区混调油价格基本回稳，国际原油继续支撑本地，但需求面并无明显好转，短期<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>消息面将继续支撑市场，价格高位持稳。华南混调油最新交易估价：船用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>交易过驳价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4850-4860</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US> /</SPAN>吨；库提价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4860-4870</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，国产锅炉用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>交易价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4600-4650</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>471400</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>5100</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：利比亚石油出口中断令全球市场过剩供应量减少，而尼日利亚即将进行总统选举，原油供应<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>前景堪忧，原油价格的连创新高支撑了沪油期价，但相比之下沪油弱势明显。从盘面上看，沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约受阻于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5100</SPAN>关口，但下方均线系统支撑良好，短期继续测试上方压力，建议在<SPAN lang=EN-US>5000-5150</SPAN>位置采用区间交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>5 PTA<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油期货下跌，因市场忧虑油价上涨打压需求。<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX5</SPAN>月原油期货下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.87</SPAN>美元，报收于每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>109.92</SPAN>美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、聚酯切片行情稳定为主，市场上半光切片现货主流<SPAN lang=EN-US>13500-13600</SPAN>三月承兑，现款主流<SPAN lang=EN-US>13300-13400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨自提水平；有光切片现货现款主流一般在<SPAN lang=EN-US>13300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，市场观望气氛较浓，下游心态仍旧谨慎，实际买盘不多，因现货价格与合同预报价偏离较多，大聚酯工厂多执行合同订单为主，现货基本少有出货。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货价格：华东<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场持续上扬，市场持货方报盘涨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>11450</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，询盘价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，实际商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11300-11350</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，市场交易气氛良好。亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场气氛持续上扬，台产货报盘涨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1465</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，市场买盘居多，主流商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1455-1460</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近展开。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>10714</SPAN>张，较上一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>139</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：国际原油价格高位回落，现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>回升至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1630</SPAN>美元，<SPAN lang=EN-US> 4-5</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>工厂检修计划增多，供应减少对<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货有所支撑，现货市场气氛回升，买家低位询盘较为积极。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA 1109</SPAN>合约震荡收涨，期价上冲至<SPAN lang=EN-US>11200</SPAN>一线后出现回落，短线反弹测试<SPAN lang=EN-US>11000</SPAN>上方压力，预计将维持<SPAN lang=EN-US>10000-11500</SPAN>区间震荡，操作上<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>日内<SPAN lang=EN-US>11000</SPAN>上方短空。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">股指期货</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">瑞达期货：多空对峙，期指面临调整<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>道琼斯<SPAN lang=EN-US> 12381.11 1.06 0.01% <BR></SPAN>纳斯达克<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2771.51 -8.91 -0.32%<BR></SPAN>标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500 1324.46 -3.71 -0.28%<BR></SPAN>富时<SPAN lang=EN-US>100 6053.44 -2.31 -0.04%<BR></SPAN>德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX 7204.86 -12.16 -0.17%<BR></SPAN>法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAC40 4038.70 -23.21 -0.57%<BR>C0MEX</SPAN>黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1468.1 -6.0 -0.41%<BR>NYMEX</SPAN>原油<SPAN lang=EN-US> 109.92 -2.87 -2.54%<BR></SPAN>美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 75.062 0.196 0.26%<BR></SPAN>小结：周一美国股市大体收低，成交量清淡。美国上市公司财报披露季节即将拉开序幕，投资者普遍谨慎观望。受分析师调降评级影响，汽车股表现欠佳，欧洲股市低收。但伦敦银行股逆市上扬，政府指定的一家委员会宣布了市场期待以久的银行业改革建议。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1. </SPAN>一季度经济数据<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>日公布：通胀压力未减，<SPAN lang=EN-US>CPI</SPAN>料达<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2. 136</SPAN>家公司披露业绩预告，逾<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>成公司首季预喜；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3. </SPAN>聚点中国通胀：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>索罗斯：中国通胀已有点要失控的架势；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>谢国忠：中国通货膨胀正在进入危险的领域；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>美银美林：高层首度表态使用汇率工具对抗通胀<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>4. </SPAN>李稻葵：需适当收紧流动性防范通胀二轮打击；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>夏斌：不排除进一步加息可能性；<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR>5. </SPAN>联储副主耶伦：商品价格上涨不会推动政策转变；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>6. </SPAN>华尔街日报：房地产泡沫、失衡的经济结构调整、政治三大问题可能拖累中国经济增长；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>7. IMF</SPAN>：全球经济未来两年将继续复苏，中国资产泡沫可能破裂。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>持仓分析<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2011" Month="4" Day="11" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2011" Month="4" Day="11" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False">4<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月11</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>前</SPAN></st1:chsdate>20</SPAN>名多头主力持单（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>16633</SPAN>手，空头主力持仓（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>19568</SPAN>手，净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>2935</SPAN>手，净空持仓减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1352</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>周一期指冲高回落，放量震荡下跌。从持仓动向来看，因主力合约周五到期，多空双方均采取减仓策略，双方力量趋于平衡。值得注意的是，空头巨头中证期货大幅减持<SPAN lang=EN-US>1051</SPAN>手。结合基本面来看，期指将面临调整，且多空争夺激烈，震荡加剧。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>主力合约<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>周一报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3344.6</SPAN>点，预计周二<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>合约运行区间在：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3370-3300</SPAN>点之间。如上方冲破<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3370 </SPAN>点可以小多，止损下设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点；如下方破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300</SPAN>点，可以介入空单，止损上设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点。如在区间内窄幅震荡，可以高空低多的策略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>合约名称<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>HS 300 3380 3360 3290 3270<BR>IF1104 3390 3370 3300 3280<BR>IF1105 3400 3380 3310 3290<BR>IF1106 3420 3400 3330 3310<BR>IF1109 3460 3440 3370 3350</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">『免责声明：期市瞬息万变，盘中突发消息也将影响走势突变，投资人应盘 ddddddddddddddddd
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