<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">金属产品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铅 锌<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜，伦锌尾盘拉升，日线收出带长下影线的小阳线，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2360</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.55%</SPAN>；伦铅小幅上涨，日线上呈现阴阳交错的震荡态势，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2698</SPAN>美元，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.42%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美国首次申请失业救济人数减<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>千人<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月芝加哥采购经理人指数下滑至<SPAN lang=EN-US>70.6<BR><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17750-17850</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>445-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>345</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17700-17800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>495-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>395</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>铅报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17400-17600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>库存方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>736675</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>300</SPAN>吨，上海交易所锌期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>313682</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>401</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铅库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>281300</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1125</SPAN>吨，上期所铅期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>300</SPAN>吨，保持不变。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>观点总结：基本面上，铅锌均处于供求过剩的局面。资金面上，沪锌主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单重回<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.6</SPAN>万手以上；沪铅主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单减少至<SPAN lang=EN-US>789</SPAN>手，净空单比例明显下降。整体来看，资金操作偏空。技术显示，沪锌弱势震荡；沪铅弱势难改。操作建议：沪锌、沪铅空单持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR><BR>2 </SPAN>黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>本周四欧元区通胀数据刷新近两年高点，通胀情绪升温，推升金价再次走高。<SPAN lang=EN-US>Comex</SPAN>金<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月开盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>1425.1</SPAN>，最高触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>1440.8</SPAN>，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>1421.9</SPAN>，收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>1439.9</SPAN>，成交<SPAN lang=EN-US>119532</SPAN>手，持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>332502</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>．<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>欧盟统计局<SPAN lang=EN-US>(Eurostat)</SPAN>公布的数据显示，欧元区<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月调和消费者物价指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>(CPI)</SPAN>初值年率上升<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.6%</SPAN>，为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2008</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月来最大年率涨幅，高于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月的上升<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.4%</SPAN>；预期为上升<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.3%</SPAN>。数据表明欧元区通胀情况继续恶化。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2</SPAN>．<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>爱尔兰央行公布了银行业压力测试结果，目前爱尔兰<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>家主要银行需要额外的<SPAN lang=EN-US>240</SPAN>亿欧元<SPAN lang=EN-US>(</SPAN>约合<SPAN lang=EN-US>341</SPAN>亿美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>)</SPAN>资本，从而确保这些银行能够承受住经济形势进一步恶化所导致的损失。欧债担忧升温，风险情绪受到打压。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> <st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="31" Month="3" Year="2011">3<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月31</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>沪金1106</SPAN></SPAN>合约早盘小幅高开<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.95</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克至<SPAN lang=EN-US>300.80</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，日内最高<SPAN lang=EN-US>301.30</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>300.47</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，收盘上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.41</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.47%</SPAN>，成交量<SPAN lang=EN-US>5554</SPAN>手，较上一个交易日有所减少，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>37444</SPAN>手，减仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>282</SPAN>手，主力合约逐渐开始向<SPAN lang=EN-US>AU1112</SPAN>转移。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>ETF</SPAN>持仓方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>全球最大的黄金上市交易基金<SPAN lang=EN-US>(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust</SPAN>表示，其黄金持仓量截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="1" Month="4" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1,211.23</SPAN>吨，较上一个交易日小幅减仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.61</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>本周四欧元区公布的经济数据显示<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月通胀水平刷新两年多以来高位，进一步增加了欧洲央行<SPAN lang=EN-US>(ECB)</SPAN>即将采取加息措施的预期，另外欧债危机仍阴魂不散，市场避险情绪继续高涨，黄金延续强势震荡收高，目前市场关注焦点转移到今日晚间即将公布的非农就业数据上，由于中国清明假期休市，建议投资者短线离场观望，中线<SPAN lang=EN-US>295</SPAN>附近进场多单仍可继续持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铜<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：隔夜伦铜探底回升，盘中最低跌至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9332</SPAN>，此后受逢低买盘提振，自低位出现较强反弹，尾盘涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.1%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9478</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。技术面上来看，目前铜价仍处于均线组下方运行，短期下跌风险还未解除。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>。美股在差于预期的上周初请失业金人数和<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月工厂订单数据的推动下小幅低开，且全盘涨跌不一。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>。智利今年<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月铜产量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>368,243</SPAN>吨，同比减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.6%</SPAN>。数据显示<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-2</SPAN>月铜产量小幅下滑<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.1%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>817,077</SPAN>吨。产量下滑的原因在于矿石品味下滑和矿石加工设备出现故障。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：上海金属网铜现货报价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>70650-70750</SPAN>，较昨日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>350</SPAN>，现货较期货升水<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>，在铜价大幅下挫之际，现货虽较期货出现升水，但升水的幅度较小，表明现货需求不强；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.47-7.49</SPAN>，较昨日小幅上涨，表明内盘在铜价大跌之后表现出了一定的抗跌性。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存：<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="31" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>31</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>伦铜库存增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>125</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>439850</SPAN>，目前注销仓单占库存比处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.12%</SPAN>，连续第五日下跌，且仍处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>之下，预计后期库存有望继续增加。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日伦铜在跌至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9332</SPAN>后，引发较强反弹，尾盘反涨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9478.</SPAN>此次始于<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="25" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>以来的回调走势，其主要原因在于全球不断增加的库存淡化了此前市场对中国铜消费过于乐观的预期以及随着全球通胀压力的上行，欧美退出宽松的货币政策的预期开始加强，市场流动性呈现偏紧状态。今日市场关注美国就业数据，该数据会使得美联储是否加息更加明朗。另外下周一，和周二中国市场休息，为规避市场风险，建议投资者适量减仓为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="8" UnitName="mm">8mm</st1:chmetcnv> Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4590</SPAN>，持平；<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="20" UnitName="mm"><SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4890</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>(1) </SPAN>房价调控目标出台期限截止，住建部要求再调整；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) 2011</SPAN>年淘汰落后产能目标任务将分解下达；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) </SPAN>全国土地督察风暴再起，华南重点查<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>城市；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(4) </SPAN>印度粉矿<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="31" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>31</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>指数参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>177</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>12916</SPAN>，持平。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>小结：周四<SPAN lang=EN-US>RB1110</SPAN>合约处<SPAN lang=EN-US>4800</SPAN>附近整理。原材料价格继续回升，螺纹钢成本逐渐上移，但现货市场建筑钢材经拉涨过后，成交遇阻。操作上建议，短线维持<SPAN lang=EN-US>4830-4750</SPAN>区间交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铝<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：隔夜伦铝连续第六日于高位展开小幅震荡，盘中波动区间为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2614-2648</SPAN>，尾盘微涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.44%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2638.5</SPAN>，该涨幅小于其他基本金属，表明在上涨过程中铝价表现反而较差。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>。美股在差于预期的上周初请失业金人数和<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月工厂订单数据的推动下小幅低开，且全盘涨跌不一。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>。全球最大的铝生产商<SPAN lang=EN-US>--</SPAN>俄罗斯铝业联合公司周四宣布<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>去年净利按年增<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.5</SPAN>倍<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>远超市场预期<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>受惠产能和铝价俱升<SPAN lang=EN-US>.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：上海金属网铝现货报价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>16500-16520</SPAN>，较昨日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，现货较期货贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>，据现货市场传来的消息称，目前现货市场观望气氛较浓，供需入市冷清，整体市场难有成交；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.38-6.34</SPAN>，较昨日小幅下跌，沪铝疲软走势尽显无遗。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>31</SPAN>伦铝库存小幅减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>3550</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4595375</SPAN>，目前注销仓单占库存比处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5.56%</SPAN>，较昨日小幅减少。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：隔夜伦铝继续于高位展开小幅震荡，尾盘收涨，近期铝价及时在下跌过程中，亦收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2600</SPAN>之上，表明此点位存在较强支撑。此次铜价下跌并不是因为宏观环境的变差，而是因为此前对中国需求的乐观预期没有得到良好的回应，是希望落空造成的下跌，而铝市的基本面此时稍好于铜，因此铜铝走势有可能出现短暂的分化，对于期铝可保持看多的思路。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>受<SPAN lang=EN-US>11-12</SPAN>制糖年全球头号产糖国<SPAN lang=EN-US>--</SPAN>巴西食糖产量或继续增加的影响，本周四<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>糖市原糖期货价格小幅下跌。当日<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105 </SPAN>期约糖价下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>-0.4%</SPAN>），收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>27.11</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1107</SPAN>期约糖价同时下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>19</SPAN>个点<SPAN lang=EN-US>(-0.8%)</SPAN>，以<SPAN lang=EN-US>25.04</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅报收。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、巴西开榨推迟，市场再次担心出现去年港口堵塞<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 2</SPAN>、明年全球食糖产量或增加<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>国内现货微幅上调，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7260</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1334</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>992</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内主产区天气情况：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>今天白天到晚上，全区阴天到多云。今天早晨全区大部地区有雾。南宁市<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>今天白天到晚上，阴天，东南风<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-2</SPAN>级，最<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>高<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="22" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>22℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>，最低气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="15" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>15℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约缩量反弹，但仍受<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日等均线压制，<SPAN lang=EN-US>KDJ</SPAN>指标仍呈向下扩散状态，表明期价仍处整理中。操作上，中线以<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>逢高抛空为宜。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">谷物<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>据阿根廷农业部长周三表示，阿根廷与中国的玉米谈判工作仍在继续，阿根廷正在极力推动对华的销售工作。上周中国代表团访问布宜诺斯艾利斯，旨在推动玉米贸易。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、由于今年大部分小麦产区春季干旱，一些喜旱害虫发生程度偏重，特别是随着近期气温回升和一些地区降雨增加，小麦条锈病等重大病虫害呈快速发展态势。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>USDA</SPAN>预估美玉米库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>65.2</SPAN>亿蒲，教去年同期大幅减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>亿蒲。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> <BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>美玉米旧作合约期价触及涨停，因<SPAN lang=EN-US>USDA</SPAN>报告数据利多，但种植面积增加抑制了新作合约的升幅。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>美玉米<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月：<SPAN lang=EN-US>693.25</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>蒲，<SPAN lang=EN-US>+30<BR> <BR></SPAN>现货价格：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、河南驻马店小麦市场平稳运行，当地强筋麦（西农<SPAN lang=EN-US>979</SPAN>、郑麦<SPAN lang=EN-US>9023</SPAN>）收购价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2100-2120</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨以上，变化不大。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2</SPAN>、华南地区早籼稻价格稳定在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2220</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，价格平稳<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>江西九江地区价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2160</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，安徽合肥稳定在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2120</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3</SPAN>、国内玉米现货价格走势相对平稳，局部略有下跌。其中：广东港东北玉米报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2260-2270</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；大连港内玉米平舱价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2160-2180</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，山东青岛饲料厂玉米进厂价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2185</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> <BR></SPAN>操作提示：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>郑麦：期价重新回跌，跌回到前期的震荡区间中，多单离场，近期以观望为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>早籼稻：期价继续走弱，技术面偏弱，近期需要关注现货的库存消耗率，短期观望为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>玉米：玉米走势依旧偏弱，市场上利空消息压制期价，且目前运行在高位，政府压制价格的意图较为明显，但期价难以深跌，调整过后仍可看好。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">粕豆<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>USDA</SPAN>报告预估当季大豆库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>12.49</SPAN>亿蒲，远低于市场预期。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>USDA</SPAN>预估新季大豆播种面积为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7660.<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="1" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="90000" UnitName="英亩">9<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>万英亩</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US>，低于市场预估的7687</SPAN></SPAN>万英亩的水准。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="1" Month="4" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>黑龙江省储大豆将继续拍卖。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> <BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>美豆大幅收涨，因报告数据利多，期价突破了<SPAN lang=EN-US>14</SPAN>美元的阻力位，<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月合约收盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1410.25</SPAN>美分，上涨了<SPAN lang=EN-US>38.25</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> <BR></SPAN>现货价格：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、黑龙江哈尔滨地区国产大豆的收购价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3770-3880</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，目前油厂的大豆库存相对充足，部分油厂开始停收大豆，而农户手中的余粮也比较有限，目前忙于春耕，市场的交投比较清淡。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>豆粕现货价格上涨，山东沿海地区工厂豆粕价格稳中上涨，青岛地区工厂<SPAN lang=EN-US>43%</SPAN>蛋白豆粕合同价格价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>3150</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；日照地区某工厂<SPAN lang=EN-US>43%</SPAN>蛋白豆粕<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月上旬合同价格<SPAN lang=EN-US>3120</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，量大可议。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> <BR></SPAN>盘面分析：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>今天期价走势小幅震荡，但大豆比较偏弱，持仓继续大幅下滑，前期多头的炒作资金获利平仓，而豆粕走势较为偏强。另外，虽然近期期价波动的幅度不大，但持仓呈现下滑态势。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> <BR></SPAN>操作建议：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>Usda</SPAN>报告增强了市场的利多气氛，豆类期价获得上升动力，具体在操作上，继续持有前期的多单即可，目前仍需保持轻仓。另外，目前大豆和豆粕的价差继续缩小，建立的套利单可继续持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期棉涨停，因美国种植面积低于预期。指标<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE-5</SPAN>月期棉合约上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>美分，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>200.23</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、中国发改委表示，从<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年度开始实行棉花临时收储制度。收储价为标准皮棉到库价格每吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>19,800</SPAN>元人民币。此举旨在稳定棉花生产、经营者和用棉企业市场预期，保护棉农利益，保证市场供应。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> 2</SPAN>、从新疆自治区纺织行办了解到，<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>十二五<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>期间，新疆纺织行业规划重点建设项目<SPAN lang=EN-US>115</SPAN>个，规划总投资近<SPAN lang=EN-US>600</SPAN>亿元。将力争实现行业经济总量较<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>十一五<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>末翻<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.5</SPAN>番的任务，突破<SPAN lang=EN-US>500</SPAN>亿元。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 3</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>日进口棉中国主港报价继续下跌，各品种报价下调<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.5-4.8</SPAN>美分。尽管价格持续下跌，但现货市场并不见好转，进口棉成交依然格外清淡，不少棉商的业务基本停滞，港口现货数量开始减少，并跟随订单转移到其他国家。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>30128</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，与上一交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>207</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>556</SPAN>张，较上一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>354</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>主产区天气：未来三天，新疆西部、青藏高原东部、华北中北部、内蒙古中部和东北部、黑龙江北部、甘肃南部等地有小到中雪或雨夹雪，西藏东南部、西北地区东部、华北南部、西南地区、黄淮中西部、江淮、江汉、江南北部和西部等地将有小到中雨或阵雨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：美棉收于涨停，<SPAN lang=EN-US>USDA</SPAN>公布<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年度棉花种植面积预估为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1256.<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="1" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="60000" UnitName="英亩">6<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>万英亩</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US>，远低于此前平均预估的1321-1324</SPAN></SPAN>万英亩。发改委表示从<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年度开始实行棉花临时收储制度，收储价为标准皮棉到库价格每吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>19,800</SPAN>元人民币，此举为刺激中国植棉积极性，稳定棉花种植面积，对棉价构成压力。国内纺织企业处于棉纱库存的消化状态，中小型纺企出现降价抛售棉纱现象。现货价格继续小幅下跌，棉企出货积极性增加，市场成交清淡的局面未转变。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约减仓下跌，期价尾盘快速回落，下方考验<SPAN lang=EN-US>28000</SPAN>一线支撑，中期维持高位震荡走势。操作上，依托<SPAN lang=EN-US>28000</SPAN>短多，关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线压力。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">油脂：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：受美农业部利多面积及季度库存报告提振，<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>豆油跟随大豆小幅收高，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>58.78</SPAN>美分；因预期美国农民削减大豆种植将导致大豆产出的下降，提高对其替代品棕榈油的需求，<SPAN lang=EN-US>BMD</SPAN>棕榈油期货主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>月合约上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>14</SPAN>令吉收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3326</SPAN>令吉<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；受<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>谷物和大豆产品期货上扬带动，<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>加拿大油菜籽期货主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月合约上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>9.40</SPAN>加元，报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>593.30</SPAN>加元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>公吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息：国际方面，油世界表示，由于干旱的影响，其<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011 </SPAN>年大豆作物产量可能降至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4850</SPAN>万吨，低于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年的<SPAN lang=EN-US>5420</SPAN>万吨。 国内方面，自去年<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>日至今年<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="25" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，豆油零售价从每升<SPAN lang=EN-US> 10.54</SPAN>元涨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>11.52</SPAN>元，累计涨幅达<SPAN lang=EN-US>9%</SPAN>；同期，花生油累计涨幅 约为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7%</SPAN>，菜籽油累计涨幅约<SPAN lang=EN-US>6%</SPAN>，以上<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>个最主要的食用油品种均 连续<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>个多月涨价。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货：昨日油脂现货报价基本稳定，沿海四级豆油约为<SPAN lang=EN-US> 9950-10100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；港口棕榈油报价集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9100-9600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；国 内四级菜油出厂价格处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>10000-10300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">仓单：豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>8085</SPAN>张；棕榈油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>张；菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>13129</SPAN>张；均无变化。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：<SPAN lang=EN-US>USDA</SPAN>新年度种植意向报告和季度库存报告即将 出台，市场预期报告较为利多，连日来国内豆类走势相对坚挺 ，进而提振油脂走势。就油脂而言，本身缺乏更多利多因素的提振，间接利多效用也是体现在短期，建议投资者短多逢高获 利了解。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>1<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">连塑<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、塑料机械产业<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>十二五<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>规划完成<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、亚洲乙烯价格继续持稳<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格明显回升。扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>11300</SPAN>，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>350</SPAN>元。东北亚乙烯报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1350——1352</SPAN>美元，东南亚乙烯报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1230—1232</SPAN>美元，均与昨日持平。市场交投谨慎。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：无库存，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>650</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：今日连塑反弹受阻，冲高回落。多空双方操作均均较为谨慎，短线杀跌力度有所减弱。基本面也是多空交织。原油高位运行、亚洲乙烯走势坚挺对其产生一定的支撑。但需求不振却对其产生一定的压力。预计短期仍将震荡整理。操作上，建议投资者以日内交易为宜。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>2 PVC<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、河南永煤银鸽化工<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>项目一期建成<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>产品即将下线<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、聚合<SPAN lang=EN-US>MDI</SPAN>市场盘整局面<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>缓慢上行<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货市场保持平稳。<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFR</SPAN>远东报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1142</SPAN>美元，华东电石法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7750</SPAN>元，。华东乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8100</SPAN>元，西北电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300</SPAN>元，华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3800</SPAN>元。均与昨日持平。市场成交一般。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：无库存<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>继续低位缩量整理，<SPAN lang=EN-US>7900</SPAN>元一线暂时为其提供了一定的支撑。但盘中交易清淡，投资者操作热情降低。显示市场分岐仍在。基本面上，原油高位运行、亚洲现货走势坚挺对其产生一定的支撑。但加息预期加大及下游需求复苏缓慢则对其形成较大压力，预计短期仍将维持弱势震荡格局。操作上以日内短线为宜。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 PTA <BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、逸盛石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>挂牌价执行<SPAN lang=EN-US>12100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月挂牌上调<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、中石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>合同挂牌<SPAN lang=EN-US>13500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月结算价上调<SPAN lang=EN-US>400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、江浙地区主流工厂涤丝产销一般，多数<SPAN lang=EN-US>7-8</SPAN>成，少数较好能勉强做平，部分较低为<SPAN lang=EN-US>5-6</SPAN>成；涤丝短期延续弱势震荡为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货价格：华东<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场行情趋稳，少量报盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11450-11500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，主流商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近展开，买家询盘低位，市场交投清淡。亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货气氛持续下滑，市场台产货出货意向在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1490-1500</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，预计主流商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1480-1485</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近展开，韩产货商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1470</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，实盘稀少。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>8766</SPAN>张，与上一交易日持平，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2300</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：中石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>挂牌价执行<SPAN lang=EN-US>12000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>价格维持高位，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>工厂检修计划增多，对<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货有所支撑；但货币政策持续收紧、下游聚酯产品旺季不旺，下半年产能增长预期则对远月合约构成压制。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA 1109</SPAN>合约承压下跌，期价跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>11000</SPAN>关口进一步下滑，预计短期<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>将维持弱势震荡格局，操作上，日内依托<SPAN lang=EN-US>10750</SPAN>一线短多。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">沪胶<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>TOCOM</SPAN>橡胶期货<SPAN lang=EN-US>31</SPAN>日连续第三个交易日上涨，因市场担忧泰国南部洪灾导致橡胶产量降低。<SPAN lang=EN-US> TOCOM 9</SPAN>月交割的橡胶期货<SPAN lang=EN-US>31</SPAN>日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.5%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>432.2</SPAN>日元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>千克（<SPAN lang=EN-US>5,222</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>公吨）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、象牙海岸<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-2</SPAN>月橡胶出口量增至<SPAN lang=EN-US>46,471</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月天然橡胶产量料减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：目前云南标一胶市场参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>37500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，海南标一胶参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>37300-37400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>左右，越南<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="3" UnitName="l"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3L</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>胶有报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>38200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右（<SPAN lang=EN-US>13%</SPAN>票），泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US>3#</SPAN>烟片无票的在<SPAN lang=EN-US>38400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右；现货市场波动<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>幅度不大，实单多是商谈而定。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>亚洲各橡胶主产区天气预报如下：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>曼谷<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>小到中雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="22" UnitName="℃">22℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="19" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>19℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>越南<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>河内<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阴<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="18" UnitName="℃">18℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="12" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>12℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>胡志明市<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="31" UnitName="℃">31℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="22" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>22℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>马来西亚<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>吉隆坡<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="31" UnitName="℃">31℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="24" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>24℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>印尼<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雅加达<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="31" UnitName="℃">31℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="25" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>25℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17375</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>665</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：目前国内外橡胶库存均表现偏低，而主产国也处于割胶淡季，这都给期胶一定的支撑，加上<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>产胶区天气出现异常，泰国南部出现持续强降雨，可能引发市场炒作。但近期国际宏观格局仍存在一定的变<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>数，对商品也产生一定的压力。从盘面来看，沪胶<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约多空争夺于<SPAN lang=EN-US>35000</SPAN>关口，上有压力下有支撑下，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>短期期价料有所反复，建议投资者采取日内操作。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="31" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>31</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，纽约商业交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>(NYMEX)</SPAN>原油期货收于两年半来的最高水平，受美元走软影响，另<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>外利比亚反政府武装遭受重创的消息令人们担心该国冲突可能会持续。汽油和取暖油期货也飙升至两年多以<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>来的最高水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、沙特原油仅能弥补利比亚部分空缺；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月份美国原油进口量同比增<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.3%-EIA</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：华南混调油最新交易估价：船用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>交易过驳价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4820-4830</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；库提价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4830-4840</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US> /</SPAN>吨，均价持平，国产锅炉用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>交易价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4570-4620</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>497900</SPAN>吨，无增减。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：中东局势的发展支撑了国际油价保持在高位，但当前宏观经济局势的不稳定也使得市场担忧<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>情绪浮现，油价涨幅料将受限。目前华南地区混调油市场由于成品油调价没有兑现，贸易对于后期调油料价<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>格能否继续走高的信心有所松动，报价多数报稳，个别继续跟涨。从盘面上看，沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约期价弱势震荡<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>，下方<SPAN lang=EN-US>4620</SPAN>一线存在支撑，预计短期期价运行于<SPAN lang=EN-US>4620-4700</SPAN>，建议区间操作。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">股指期货</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">瑞达期货：市场情绪谨慎，期指短期难以好转<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>道琼斯<SPAN lang=EN-US> 12319.73 -30.87 -0.25%<BR></SPAN>纳斯达克<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2781.07 4.28 0.15%<BR></SPAN>标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500 1325.83 -2.43 -0.18%<BR></SPAN>富时<SPAN lang=EN-US>100 5908.76 -39.54 -0.66%<BR></SPAN>德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX 7041.31 -15.84 -0.22%<BR></SPAN>法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAC40 989.18 -35.26 -0.88%<BR>C0MEX</SPAN>黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1439.9 15.0 1.05%<BR>NYMEX</SPAN>原油<SPAN lang=EN-US> 106.72 2.45 2.35%<BR></SPAN>美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 76.093 -0.033 -0.04%<BR></SPAN>小结：周四美股收盘涨跌不一，但整个第一季度内美股大幅攀升。道指赢得了<SPAN lang=EN-US>1999</SPAN>年以来表现最好的第一季度。欧洲股市周四低收，出于对爱尔兰银行压力测试结果的忧虑，投资者抛售了银行股。有数据显示欧元区通货膨胀压力有所增强，这也打击了投资者信心。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1. </SPAN>沪银行间拆借利率全面上涨似为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月加息预热；<SPAN lang=EN-US>CPI</SPAN>或再破五，加息预期增强；<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR>2. </SPAN>国务院督察组启程在即，主查地方楼市调控效果；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3. 3</SPAN>月公开市场现万亿回笼，八成资金将在二季度释放；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>4. </SPAN>美数据好坏参半：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月工厂订单环比降<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.1%</SPAN>不及预期，<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月芝加哥<SPAN lang=EN-US>PMI</SPAN>为<SPAN lang=EN-US>70.6</SPAN>好于预期，周初请失业金人数<SPAN lang=EN-US>38.8</SPAN>万不及预期；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>5. </SPAN>银行压力测试：爱尔兰银行另需<SPAN lang=EN-US>240</SPAN>亿欧元方可存活；<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR>6. </SPAN>债务堪忧，<SPAN lang=EN-US>IMF</SPAN>下调美日经济增长预期；惠誉下调对全球经济增长的预期<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>7. </SPAN>欧盟财政问题，利比亚局势升级，推动油价大涨黄金新高。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>持仓分析<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="31" Month="3" Year="2011"><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="31" Month="3" Year="2011">3<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月31</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>前</SPAN></st1:chsdate>20</SPAN>名多头主力持单（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>20413</SPAN>手，空头主力持仓（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>25668</SPAN>手，净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>5255</SPAN>手，净空持仓减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1117</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>因市场继续受紧缩货币预期（加息、上调存准率）的压制，周四期指继续振荡走低，多空分歧依旧。从持仓动向来看，空头经过连续几日打压，期指支撑力量较强，空头见好利收，其中，中证期货日内剧减<SPAN lang=EN-US>1657</SPAN>手。而多头经过多日空头打压，部分主力表现犹疑，信心不足，减仓。结合宏观基本面和技术面来看，期指经过连续几日打压下挫之后，下探受到有力支撑，短期期指以调整振荡为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>主力合约<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>周四报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3244.0</SPAN>点，预计周五<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>合约运行区间在：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3280-3190</SPAN>点之间。如上方冲破<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3280 </SPAN>点可以小多，止损下设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点；如下方破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3190</SPAN>点，可以介入空单，止损上设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点。如在区间内窄幅震荡，可以高空低多的策略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>合约名称<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>HS 300 3300 3270 3180 3150<BR>IF1104 3310 3280 3190 3160<BR>IF1105 3330 3300 3210 3180<BR>IF1106 3350 3320 3230 3200<BR>IF1109 3390 3360 3270 3240<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">『免责声明：期市瞬息万变，盘中突发消息也将影响走势突变，投资人应盘
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