<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">金属产品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：隔夜<SPAN lang=EN-US>COMEX 4</SPAN>月期金继续回落，终盘跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.3</SPAN>美元至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1419.9</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>盎司，<SPAN lang=EN-US>28</SPAN>日沪金低开低走，市场多头人气受挫，持仓量继续萎缩。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1. </SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月消费者支出指数较上月上升<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.7%</SPAN>，为连续第八个月增长，且为<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月以来最大增幅，这是美国经济持续复苏的又一佐证。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>NAR</SPAN>季调后成屋签约销售指数月率上升<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.1%</SPAN>，预期下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.0%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：上海<SPAN lang=EN-US>9999</SPAN>黄金下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.50</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>300.30</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，跌幅为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.15%</SPAN>，现货升水<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.4</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：隔夜国际金价继续下行，因美国消费者支出数据强于预期，但黄金的跌势同样受中东局势限制。<SPAN lang=EN-US>28</SPAN>日沪金低开低走，期价跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>300</SPAN>关口。操作上建议，短线回调思维，空单止损价位参考<SPAN lang=EN-US>302</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="8" UnitName="mm">8mm</st1:chmetcnv> Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4570</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="20" UnitName="mm"><SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4860</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>(1) </SPAN>炼焦煤今年或有<SPAN lang=EN-US>5600</SPAN>万吨缺口；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) </SPAN>矿税改革引发澳大利亚各方博弈；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) </SPAN>楼市调控频加码，开发商血拼二三线城市；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(4) </SPAN>印度粉矿<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="28" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>28</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>指数参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>174</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>6906</SPAN>吨，增持<SPAN lang=EN-US>902</SPAN>。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>小结：周一<SPAN lang=EN-US>RB1110</SPAN>合约止跌反弹，但在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4800</SPAN>附近仍受到一定的压力。基本面上，工业减排约束性指标公布，碳排放将降<SPAN lang=EN-US>4%</SPAN>以上，进口铁矿石价格出现止跌反弹，有望对原材料价格再次起到支撑，短期沪钢有望延续反弹。操作上建议，维持震荡偏多思维，止盈<SPAN lang=EN-US>4700</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铅锌<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜，伦锌继续下挫，盘中一度跌至<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日均线之下，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2342</SPAN>美元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.41%</SPAN>；伦铅延续跌势，成交量有所放大，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2628</SPAN>美元，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.94%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>标普本周可能再次下调葡萄牙评级<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月成屋签约销量上升<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17950-18050</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>480-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>380</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17900-18000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>530-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>430</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>铅报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17600-17800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>库存方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>735650</SPAN>吨，较上交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>200</SPAN>吨，上海交易所锌期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>312683</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1001</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铅库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>283800</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>175</SPAN>吨，上期所铅期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>300</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>224</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>观点总结：基本面上，铅锌均处于供求过剩的局面。资金面上，沪锌主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单维持在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.5</SPAN>万手以上；沪铅主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单增加至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1365</SPAN>手，净空单比例高于沪锌。整体来看，资金操作偏空。技术显示，沪锌缺口受阻之后，回调展开；沪铅跌破首日区间，弱势难改。操作建议：沪锌、沪铅观望或逢高做空。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铜<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：隔夜伦铜大幅下挫，运行区间为<SPAN lang=EN-US>9720-9510</SPAN>，尾盘跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.7%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9555</SPAN>。早盘开出之后即大幅低开至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9475</SPAN>，此次铜价下跌被视为前期反弹无力的佐证，因此这样的下跌料具有一定持续性。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>28</SPAN>日国家统计局数据显示<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月中旬有色金属铜、铝、锌价格均有回落，分别下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.8%</SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.7%</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.7%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>。美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月消费者支出环比上升<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.7%</SPAN>，为连续第八个月增长，且为<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月以来最大增幅，这是美国经济持续复苏的又一佐证。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：上海金属网铜现货报价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>71400-71800</SPAN>，较昨日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>600</SPAN>，现货较期货升水<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>，在铜价下跌过程中，现货大多表现为升水；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.46-7.42</SPAN>，较昨日出现下跌，目前内外比价处于历史较低水平，表明内盘走势相当疲软，跟跌不跟涨的特征十分明显。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存：<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="28" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>28</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>伦铜库存增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>625</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>439900</SPAN>，目前注销仓单占库存比处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.65%</SPAN>，连续第二日下跌，且仍处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>之下，预计后期库存有望继续增加。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：此前我们就担心铜价有可能进行回调，但那时铜价技术面表现稍强，昨日铜价大幅下挫，目前运行于均线组之下，配合了进行回调的条件。再看基本面，欧元区不断上行的通胀水平使得市场开始担忧欧元区料采取较紧缩的货币政策，从而使得原本就紧张的资金面更加捉襟见肘。另外持续增加的伦铜库存也增加了市场对铜市需求放缓的担忧。在较差的基本面与技术面的双重打击之下，铜价有望延续回调走势，操作上保持空头思路。止损于<SPAN lang=EN-US>72000.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铝<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：隔夜伦铝小幅下跌，盘中波动区间为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2645-2612</SPAN>，尾盘跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.91%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2617</SPAN>，该跌幅明显小于其他金属，铝价表现出了较强的抗跌性。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>28</SPAN>日国家统计局数据显示<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月中旬有色金属铜、铝、锌价格均有回落，分别下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.8%</SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.7%</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.7%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>。美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月消费者支出环比上升<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.7%</SPAN>，为连续第八个月增长，且为<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月以来最大增幅，这是美国经济持续复苏的又一佐证。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：上海金属网铝现货报价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>16600-16200</SPAN>，较上周五持平，现货较期货贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>，上周五表现为贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>55</SPAN>；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.42-6.39</SPAN>，较昨日小幅下跌，内盘跟跌意愿较强。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>28</SPAN>伦铝库存小幅增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>3150</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4606100</SPAN>，目前注销仓单占库存比处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5.41%</SPAN>，较昨日出现小幅上涨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：隔夜伦铝在铜价大跌的气氛带动下，亦实现小幅下跌，其跌幅远远小于其他金属，表现出了较强的抗跌性。其主要原因料跟地震前铝价出现较大跌幅有关。近几周沪铝库存持续减少，暗示了铝消费需求的回升，铝市基本面也较好于铜市。因此在操作上不宜太过看空铝价。但在基本金属大多走跌的背景下，铝价也难以大幅走高，因此铝价有望展开震荡行情，操作上暂以观望为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期棉收于跌停，投资者在本周农业部种植报告公布前调整头寸。指标<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE-5</SPAN>月期棉合约下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>美分，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>197.49</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、根据中棉所<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月份最新调查显示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年全国植棉意向呈恢复增长趋势，比<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年增加近半成。测算意向植棉面积增<SPAN lang=EN-US>5.0</SPAN>％，比<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月增<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.9</SPAN>百分点，照<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年植棉面积<SPAN lang=EN-US>7275</SPAN>万亩（国统局）增<SPAN lang=EN-US>364</SPAN>万亩至<SPAN lang=EN-US>7639</SPAN>万亩，<SPAN lang=EN-US>7454</SPAN>万亩（中棉所）增<SPAN lang=EN-US>373</SPAN>万亩至<SPAN lang=EN-US>7827</SPAN>万亩。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2</SPAN>、根据中棉所<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月份最新调查显示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年全国植棉意向呈恢复增长趋势，比<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年增加近半成。测算意向植棉面积增<SPAN lang=EN-US>5.0</SPAN>％，比<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月增<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.9</SPAN>百分点，照<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年植棉面积<SPAN lang=EN-US>7275</SPAN>万亩（国统局）增<SPAN lang=EN-US>364</SPAN>万亩至<SPAN lang=EN-US>7639</SPAN>万亩，<SPAN lang=EN-US>7454</SPAN>万亩（中棉所）增<SPAN lang=EN-US>373</SPAN>万亩至<SPAN lang=EN-US>7827</SPAN>万亩。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>30528</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，与上一交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>14</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>559</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>325</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。截止<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="27" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>27</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，全国棉花交易市场业务棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>299745</SPAN>吨，比上一周增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>8632</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>主产区天气：未来三天，新疆西部、内蒙古东北部、东北地区中北部等地将有小到中雪或雨夹雪；西藏东南部、西南地区、江南中西部、华南中西部以及台湾等地有小到中雨或阵雨，其中，西藏东南部、云南西南部局地有大雨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：美棉收于跌停，市场担忧<SPAN lang=EN-US>USDA</SPAN>种植报告料将利空。市场传言国家将下调主要农产品（包括白糖、棉花）的进口关税加剧棉花市场抛盘。目前国内纺织企业因面临纱线的库存压力，主要以销售库存产品为主，采购积极性不高。现货价格小幅下跌，棉企出货积极性增加，市场成交清淡的局面未转变。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约大幅下跌，期价跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>30000</SPAN>关口并进一步下探，短线考验<SPAN lang=EN-US>28000</SPAN>一线支撑，中期维持高位震荡走势。操作上，短空交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">谷物：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>瘦肉精<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>的影响持续，这使得生猪养殖业的观望情况增加，从而影响了豆粕和玉米的饲料需求。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、联合国粮农组织（<SPAN lang=EN-US>FAO</SPAN>）表示，由于全球大米供应量增加，因而大米价格可能下跌，从而降低食品成本。本年度全球大米期末库存可能增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.6%</SPAN>，达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.37</SPAN>亿吨。未来两个月大米价格可能下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>9.3%</SPAN>，约为每<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="100" UnitName="磅"><SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>磅</st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>美元左右。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米期货大幅下跌，市场关注重点放在中国采购美国玉米的消息上，因市场认为可能无玉米销往中国，使得期价大幅下跌。<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米：<SPAN lang=EN-US>671</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US> --18.5<BR></SPAN>现货价格：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、河南郑州小麦价格涨跌互现，面粉厂收购价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2120-2140</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上周提价<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；贸易商收购价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2040</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>-2060</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，回落<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，一等至二等白麦。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2</SPAN>、华南地区早籼稻价格稳定在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2220</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，价格平稳<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>江西九江地区价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2160</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，安徽合肥稳定在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2120</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3</SPAN>、国内玉米现货价格走势相对平稳，局部略涨。其中：大连港内玉米平舱价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2160-2180</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，广东港东北玉米报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2275-2285</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，山东青岛饲料厂玉米进厂价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2185</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>操作提示：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>郑麦：期价弱势震荡，继续运行在反弹后的整理平台中，但笔者认为在基本面的配合下，期价仍是一个偏多的态势，继续关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>2900</SPAN>一线的得失。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>早籼稻：期价大幅走弱，一度创出三月来的低点，但最终未能跌破目前的整理平台。目前全球稻米市场多空交织，但基于稻米本身的基本，后期期价仍将是高位运行的态势。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>玉米：玉米小幅收跌，养殖市场和进口玉米的消息使得期价承压，短期内将呈弱势调整态势。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>受全球头号产糖国<SPAN lang=EN-US>--</SPAN>巴西生产前景向好<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>本周一<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>糖市原糖期货价格大幅下挫，当然，全球第二大食糖出口国<SPAN lang=EN-US>--</SPAN>泰国糖产量远超预期以及全球头号食糖消费国和第二大产糖国<SPAN lang=EN-US>--</SPAN>印度食糖大幅增产同样对糖市的运行产生了不小的压力。<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>当日<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>期约糖价大幅下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>81</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>-2.9%</SPAN>），收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>27.05</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅，盘中<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>期约糖价一度<SPAN lang=EN-US>28.00</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅的高点；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1107</SPAN>期约糖价同时下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>66</SPAN>个点<SPAN lang=EN-US>(-2.6%)</SPAN>，以<SPAN lang=EN-US>24.96</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅报收。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、印度需求低迷，糖价恢复下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> 2</SPAN>、巴西降雨结束，新的<SPAN lang=EN-US>11/12</SPAN>榨季即将展开<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>国内现货未有明显变化，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7250</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1667</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>818</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内主产区天气情况：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>今晚到明天，全区多云。明天早晨，桂南部分地区有雾。南宁市：今晚到明天，多云，东北风<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-2</SPAN>级，最低气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="10" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>10℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>，最高气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="24" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>24℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约反弹承压于<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>与<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线，<SPAN lang=EN-US>KDJ</SPAN>指标重新向下拐头，调整胜将重新展开。操作上，中线以逢高抛空为宜。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">大豆豆粕：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFTC</SPAN>持仓报告显示，截至<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="22" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>22</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，大豆期货上商品基金的净多单增加了<SPAN lang=EN-US>5419</SPAN>手，净多持仓在<SPAN lang=EN-US>170353</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="31" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>31</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>美国农业部将公布<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011/12</SPAN>年度的种植报告预估。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>美豆收低，交易商尾盘获利了结使得期价由升转跌，而玉米大跌约<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.7%</SPAN>也带来的溢出效应。<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>大豆：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1348.5</SPAN>美分，<SPAN lang=EN-US> -9.75<BR></SPAN>现货价格：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、核算的进口大豆成本平稳，<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月船期的巴西大豆价格今天核算在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4490</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。黑龙江哈尔滨地区国产大豆的收购价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3770-3880</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，目前油厂的大豆库存相对充足，部分油厂开始停收大豆，而农户手中的余粮也比较有限，目前市场的交投比较清淡。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2</SPAN>、豆粕现货价格回升，但幅度不大，大连地区豆粕现货价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3060</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，山东日照地区价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，江苏地区价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3160-3180</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>盘面分析：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>昨日盘面走势比较分化，在资金的青睐下，大豆的走势明显偏强，多头资金强力介入，盘中大幅增仓，而成交更是创出近四个月的高位。与此对比的是豆粕的持仓继续下滑，同时期价偏弱，最终的收盘价格要低于昨日的收盘价。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>从盘中看，大豆的走势值得特别关注，而今天的持仓和成交的放量显示出了资金的关注。但要看到一方面邻池品种走势并没有给予配合，同时期价靠近上方压力位，应提防快涨之后的短期回调。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>操作建议：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>无论大豆的短线走势如何，从量仓来看，大豆的走势显示出了市场开始走强的特征，近期这个强势特征仍需要确认。在操作上，笔者保持前期的观点，豆类长线的趋势未有变化，可继续持有前期的多单，目前仍以轻仓为宜。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">油脂：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：棕榈油季节性增产则令豆油盘面承压，<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>豆油小<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>幅下跌，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>56.53</SPAN>美分；因担忧中东的紧张局势会促<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>使政府增加生物燃料的使用以帮助保护国家免受中东国家原油<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>供给可能中断的影响，<SPAN lang=EN-US>BMD</SPAN>棕榈油期货继续下跌，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>月合约<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>21</SPAN>令吉收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3282</SPAN>令吉<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>谷物和油菜籽下挫的扩散效<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>应一定程度上拖累油菜籽疲软，<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>加拿大油菜籽期货主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>合约下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.10</SPAN>加元，报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>580.20</SPAN>加元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>公吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息：国际方面，船运调查机构<SPAN lang=EN-US>SGS</SPAN>公布的预估数据显示，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>马来西亚<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月前<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>天棕榈油出口较上个月同期减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.3%</SPAN>，至<SPAN lang=EN-US> 954441</SPAN>吨。国内方面，青岛市质监局组织开展了<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年植物油<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>产品质量监督抽查，主要不合格油脂为小包装油。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货：昨日油脂现货报价基本稳定，沿海四级豆油约为<SPAN lang=EN-US> 9950-10100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；港口棕榈油报价集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9200-9700</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；国<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>内四级菜油出厂价格处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>10000-10300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单：豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>7735</SPAN>张；棕榈油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>张；菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>13129</SPAN>张；均<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>无变化。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：进口利空传闻再度打压油脂市场，国内油脂依<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>然维持震荡偏弱态势，短期内缺乏更多利多提振。在本周四种<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>植面积意向报告出台之前，投资者可谨慎轻仓短多，长线继续<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>观望。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">连塑<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、全球塑料市场将以<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>的年均速度增长<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、齐鲁石化塑料厂加速产品开发<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格明显走势平稳。扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>10950</SPAN>，无涨跌。东北亚乙烯报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1350——1352</SPAN>美元，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>美元。东南亚乙烯报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1230—1232</SPAN>美元，大跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>美元。市场交投谨慎。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>2007</SPAN>张，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>302</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日连塑破位下行，五日均线与十日均线均被一举贯穿，显示其短期走势仍较为疲软。基本面上，利比亚格局持续紧张，且有向他国蔓延之势对原油形成一定的支撑、东北亚乙烯止跌回升对其产生一定的支撑。但需求不振及<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格大幅回落则对其形成一定的压力。预计短期仍将震荡整理。操作上，建议投资者以日内交易为宜。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>2 PVC<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、饮用水管需用无铅的<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC-U</SPAN>管材<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、广西柳化<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年电石项目一期工程融水基地开工<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货市场走势平稳。<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFR</SPAN>远东报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1142</SPAN>美元，华东电石法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7850</SPAN>元，。华东乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8200</SPAN>元，均与昨日持平。西北电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300</SPAN>元，华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3850</SPAN>元，无涨跌。市场成交一般。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>张，与上一交易日持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>弱势回调，下方均线被轻松击穿。短期走势已转弱。基本面上，利比亚格局持续紧张，且有向他国蔓延之势对原油形成一定的支撑、亚洲现货走势坚挺，现货价格有所回升也对其产生一定的支撑。但存准率再度上调，加息预期加大则对其形成较大压力，预计后市走势仍有反复，关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>7900</SPAN>元一线的支撑力度，操作上以日内短线为宜。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 PTA <BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、中国海关<SPAN lang=EN-US>:2011</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月份中国进口聚酯切片<SPAN lang=EN-US>9,604</SPAN>吨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-2</SPAN>月为<SPAN lang=EN-US>24,828</SPAN>吨。与去年同期相减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>11.9%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>2013</SPAN>年我国<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>需求或达<SPAN lang=EN-US>2630</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、恒逸石化半光、民用有光、工业丝、薄膜级切片<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月分别报<SPAN lang=EN-US>14200</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>14200</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>14200</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>14200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货价格：华东<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场行情走跌，现货报盘降至<SPAN lang=EN-US>11550</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，工厂拿货稀少，市场主流商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11450-11500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近展开，实盘稀少。亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场气氛偏弱，台产现货报盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>1525-1530</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，市场观望气氛浓厚，主流商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1520-1525</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近展开，实盘稀少。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>8786</SPAN>张，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>101</SPAN>张。有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>弱势回调，下方多条均线均被击穿，显示其短期走势已经转弱。基本面上，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>价格维持高位，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>工厂检修计划增多，短期成本推动<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>震荡攀升；但纺织品出口关税预期下调<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>个点的传闻对其影响巨大，短期<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>的走势已转弱，下方考验<SPAN lang=EN-US>11000</SPAN>一线支撑，建议投资者以日内交易为宜。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">沪胶<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>TOCOM</SPAN>橡胶期货<SPAN lang=EN-US>28</SPAN>日下跌，因市场担忧日本受损核电厂持续核泄漏可能打击投资者信心且放<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>缓经济复苏，同时中国融资成本上涨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：据路透社报道，美国最大的轮胎制造商固特异橡胶轮胎公司（<SPAN lang=EN-US>Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>日前表示，从<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月份轮胎行业的增长势头来看，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年该公司的销售量将上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>3%</SPAN>到<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：目前云南标一胶市场参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>37700-37800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，海南标一胶参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>37700</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>左右，越南<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="3" UnitName="l"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3L</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>胶参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>38200-38300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右（<SPAN lang=EN-US>13%</SPAN>票），泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US>3#</SPAN>烟片在<SPAN lang=EN-US>42500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右（<SPAN lang=EN-US>17%</SPAN>票）；期<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>货市场走货，现货贸易商报价随之走低，下游采购谨慎，实单商谈为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>亚洲各橡胶主产区天气预报如下：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>曼谷<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>小到中雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="22" UnitName="℃">22℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="20" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>20℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>越南<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>河内<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阴<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="21" UnitName="℃">21℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="14" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>14℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>胡志明市<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阴<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="32" UnitName="℃">32℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="22" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>22℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>马来西亚<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>吉隆坡<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="33" UnitName="℃">33℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="24" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>24℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>印尼<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雅加达<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="32" UnitName="℃">32℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="26" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>26℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17625</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1850</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：目前国内外橡胶库存均表现偏低，而主产国也处于割胶淡季，这都给期胶一定的支撑。而近<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>期金融市场的焦点不仅在于日本核泄漏，还有利比亚的军事格局和欧债危机，宏观格局仍存在一定的变数，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>对商品也产生一定的压力。从盘面来看，沪胶<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约大幅下挫并跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>35000</SPAN>关口，受日胶弱势影响今日或<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>延续偏空态势，建议短线操作。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="28" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>28</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，纽约商业交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>(NYMEX)</SPAN>原油期货收盘大幅下挫，因利比亚反对派节节胜利令市场<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>对该国可能在不久的将来恢复石油出口的憧憬升温。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、利比亚反对派计划一周内恢复石油出口；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、欧佩克可能在油价超<SPAN lang=EN-US>120</SPAN>美元时召开紧急会议<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>28</SPAN>日黄埔到岸价，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>669.00</SPAN>美元，到岸贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>14-15</SPAN>美元，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>380 </SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>654.47</SPAN>美元。华南混调油最新交易估价：船用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>交易过驳价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4820-4830</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；库提价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4830- 4840</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，国产锅炉用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>交易价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4570-4620</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>500900</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1500</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：中东局势的发展支撑了国际油价保持在高位，但葡萄牙问题引发的欧债危机也使得市场担忧<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>情绪浮现，油价涨幅受限，沪油因此也受到拖累。目前华南地区混调油市场在调油成本高位支撑下，多数商<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>家报价持稳，但仍有商家继续上涨，非标油和渣油资源供应有限，价格高位坚挺为主。从盘面上看，沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1105</SPAN>合约期价弱势下行并跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>4700</SPAN>一线，预计短期期价运行于<SPAN lang=EN-US>4650-4750</SPAN>，建议区间操作。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">股指期货</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">瑞达期货：市场情绪谨慎，期指或震荡<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>道琼斯<SPAN lang=EN-US> 12197.88 -22.72 -0.19%<BR></SPAN>纳斯达克<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2730.68 -12.38 -0.45%<BR></SPAN>标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500 1310.19 -3.61 -0.27%<BR></SPAN>富时<SPAN lang=EN-US>100 5904.47 3.71 0.06%<BR></SPAN>德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX 6938.63 -7.73 -0.11%<BR></SPAN>法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAC40 3976.95 4.57 0.12%<BR>C0MEX</SPAN>黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1420.6 -5.6 -0.39%<BR>NYMEX</SPAN>原油<SPAN lang=EN-US> 103.98 -1.42 -1.35%<BR></SPAN>美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 76.244 0.111 0.15%<BR></SPAN>小结：周一美股收跌。在上周大幅上扬之后，今日美股高开低走，尾盘出现的获利回吐盘使得美股下挫，非日用消费品与信息技术板块跌幅最大。欧股周一小幅上扬，通讯设备公司阿尔卡特朗讯与诺基亚领涨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1. </SPAN>央行政策例会称：保持合理的社会融资规模和货币总量，严控<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>两高<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>和产能过剩行业贷款；通胀面临内忧外患，市场预期年中通胀率见顶；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2. </SPAN>证券业协会：扩大新三板试点范围已成急迫任务；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3. </SPAN>重启国债期货提上日程；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>4. </SPAN>上海涨幅不超过<SPAN lang=EN-US>8%</SPAN>，房价涨幅低于今年<SPAN lang=EN-US>GDP</SPAN>和居民人均收入增幅；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>5. 1039</SPAN>家上市公司<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年共实现营业总收入<SPAN lang=EN-US>92808.93</SPAN>亿元，同比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>35.05%<BR>6. </SPAN>证监会原主席周正庆：营造资本市场<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>慢牛<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>局面；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>7. </SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月消费者开支连续第<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>个月上涨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月二手房签销超预期增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.1%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>其中，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月的个人消费开支<SPAN lang=EN-US>(PCE)</SPAN>价格指数增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.4%</SPAN>，美联储主席伯南克曾表示，他将采取行动确保高通胀预期不会困扰人们的情绪；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>8. </SPAN>标普本周可能再次下调葡萄牙评级，葡萄牙经济部长：有能力解决财政问题。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>持仓分析<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="28" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="28" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on">3<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月28</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>前</SPAN></st1:chsdate>20</SPAN>名多头主力持单（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>19945</SPAN>手，空头主力持仓（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>24906</SPAN>手，净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>4961</SPAN>手，净空持仓减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>709</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>因受到短线压制，周一股指冲高回落，振荡调整，多空双方持仓变动并不明显。从持仓结构来看，多头主力除<st1:PersonName w:st="on" ProductID="国泰">国泰</st1:PersonName>君安减持多头之外，其余主力以看好后市增仓为主，而空头多以小幅减持。结合基本面和技术面来看，短期调整难改多头上攻势头。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>主力合约<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>周一报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3296.6</SPAN>点，预计周二<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>合约运行区间在：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3340-3280</SPAN>点之间。如上方冲破<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3340 </SPAN>点可以小多，止损下设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点；如下方破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3280</SPAN>点，可以介入空单，止损上设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点。如在区间内窄幅震荡，可以高空低多的策略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>合约名称<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>HS 300 3360 3330 3270 3240<BR>IF1104 3370 3340 3280 3250<BR>IF1105 3390 3360 3300 3270<BR>IF1106 3410 3380 3320 3290<BR>IF1109 3440 3420 3360 3330<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">『免责声明：期市瞬息万变，盘中突发消息也将影响走势突变，投资人应盘
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