<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">金属产品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：周五<SPAN lang=EN-US>COMEX</SPAN>期金继续回落，最终跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.7</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1426.2</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>盎司，<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>日沪金低开高走，股市走高对商品市场带来有力支撑，目前期价仍运行于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线上方。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1. </SPAN>美国第四季度<SPAN lang=EN-US>GDP</SPAN>数据好于预期，美元兑主要货币走高，美元指数突破<SPAN lang=EN-US>76</SPAN>关口。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2. </SPAN>欧债担忧升温。全球最大的黄金上市交易基金<SPAN lang=EN-US>(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust</SPAN>表示，其黄金持仓量截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="25" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1,213.96</SPAN>吨，较上一个交易日减持<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.91</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：现货方面：上海<SPAN lang=EN-US>9999</SPAN>黄金下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.05</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>303.95</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，跌幅为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.02%</SPAN>，现货升水<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.47</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：周五<SPAN lang=EN-US>COMEX</SPAN>期金继续承压，美国强劲经济数据推动美元反弹，市场风险情绪降温；沪金仍处上涨趋势，但前期高点压力较大，美联储官员表示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>FED</SPAN>的政策目前适宜，对未来尚无量化宽松预期，美元反弹对金价有所打压。操作上建议，短线期金依托<SPAN lang=EN-US>305</SPAN>空单尝试，中线<SPAN lang=EN-US>295-292</SPAN>再介入多单，目标<SPAN lang=EN-US>310</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="8" UnitName="mm">8mm</st1:chmetcnv> Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4550</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持平；<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="20" UnitName="mm"><SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4850</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>(1) </SPAN>世界钢铁协会：今年钢铁产量将创新高；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) 1-2</SPAN>月钢铁行业利润增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>26.1%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) </SPAN>浦项拟投<SPAN lang=EN-US>130</SPAN>亿元扩产韩国本地产能；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(4) </SPAN>印度粉矿<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="25" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>指数参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>172</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>6004</SPAN>吨，持平。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">小结：周五<SPAN lang=EN-US>RB1110</SPAN>合约于<SPAN lang=EN-US>4700</SPAN>关口再获支撑。目前现货市场成交情况依然偏弱，但螺纹钢库存量继续回落，鉴于基本面多空交杂。操作上，维持震荡思维，短线多空参考<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铅 锌<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：隔夜，伦锌小幅下挫，收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线之下，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2375</SPAN>美元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.66%</SPAN>；伦铅窄幅整理，成交量明显萎缩，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2680</SPAN>美元，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.07%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美国第四季度<SPAN lang=EN-US>GDP</SPAN>季比折年率修正为上升<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.1% 2.</SPAN>上期所调整清明节后部分品种交易保证金<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：上海现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>18000-18100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>560-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>460</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17950-18050</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>610-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>510</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>铅报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17700-17900</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存方面：本周锌现货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>363033</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>8497</SPAN>吨，期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>311682</SPAN>吨，较上周增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>5273</SPAN>吨。铅现货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1476</SPAN>吨，期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>76</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存最新库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>735275</SPAN>吨，较上周减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>925</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铅库存最新库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>283975</SPAN>吨，较上周减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>4675</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：基本面上，铅锌均处于供求过剩的局面。资金面上，沪锌主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单维持在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.5</SPAN>万手以上；沪铅主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单减少至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1129</SPAN>手，净空单比例高于沪锌。整体来看，资金操作偏空。技术显示，沪锌缺口受阻，突破难度较大；沪铅上方压力明显。操作建议：沪锌、沪铅观望或日内交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铜<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：隔夜伦铜高位小幅震荡，尾盘涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.19%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9719</SPAN>，目前铜价运行于均线组之上，但自<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="23" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>23</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>出现大幅上涨之后，接下来的两日几乎涨势，日内保持小幅震荡走势，表明铜价涨势放缓，后期不排除继续回调的可能。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>周五铜价极大的忽视了强劲美国经济数据的支撑性影响，美国第四季度<SPAN lang=EN-US>GDP</SPAN>环比年率终值为增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.1%</SPAN>，好于市场预期的增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.0%</SPAN>，前值为增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.8%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>美联储官员普罗索表示随着经济复苏势头进一步增强，美联储在不远的将来有必要收紧货币政策，并公开支撑加息，从而加大了美联储的加息预期，美元指数涨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>76</SPAN>之上。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：上海金属网铜现货报价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>72150-72400</SPAN>，与昨日持平，现货较期货贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>75</SPAN>，沪铜期货各合约呈现近低远高的正向市场排列，表明目前上涨趋势仍在；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.49-7.46</SPAN>，较昨日出现下跌，目前内外比价处于历史较低水平，表明内盘走势相当疲软，跟跌不跟涨的特征十分明显。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="25" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>伦铜库存增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>4650</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>439275</SPAN>，目前注销仓单占库存比处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.84%</SPAN>，较昨日出现下跌，且仍处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>之下，预计后期库存有望继续增加。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：近期铜价在高位小幅震荡，上涨意愿并不太强，其主要原因可能跟近期两市持仓量的持续减少有关。特别是沪铜指数持仓量已减至<SPAN lang=EN-US>09</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月以来的最低水平，而本周的<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFTC</SPAN>持仓表明随着总持仓量的减少，投机多空双方均出现减仓且多仓减少的幅度明显大于空方。国际宏观环境方面，多国联军对利比亚的军事打击还未结束，这也使得投资者不敢持有高风险资产，鉴于基本面与技术面的纠结，我们对铜价暂以观望为主，今日关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>72000</SPAN>一线的得失。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铝<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：隔夜伦铝最高冲至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2654</SPAN>，创下<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="9" Month="9" Year="2008"><SPAN lang=EN-US>08</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>以来的高点，晚间在好于预期的美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>GDP</SPAN>数据的支撑下，基本维持住当日涨幅，尾盘涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.69%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2641</SPAN>，目前铝价仍运行于均线组之上，技术走势稍强。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：美联储官员普罗索表示随着经济复苏势头进一步增强，美联储在不远的将来有必要收紧货币政策，并公开支撑加息，从而加大了美联储的加息预期，美元指数涨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>76</SPAN>之上。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：上海金属网铝现货报价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>16600-16620</SPAN>，较昨日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，现货较期货贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>55</SPAN>，昨日表现为贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.42-6.43</SPAN>，较昨日小幅上涨，内盘跟涨意愿有所上升。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>伦铝库存小幅减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>5925</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4602950</SPAN>，目前注销仓单占库存比处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5.27%</SPAN>，较昨日出现小幅下跌。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：本周铝价好于其他基本金属，主要因此前铝价因日本地震打压出现较大幅度的下跌，此次在市场对日本核泄漏危机的担忧有所放缓的背景下，铝价出现了补涨行情。日本灾后重建铜和铝将有所受益，因日本将进行大规模的电站及输电设备的重建，这将大量使用到铜和铝。不过目前铝市也面临着内弱外强的走势，因中国实行紧缩性的货币政策打击投资者的投机行为。在总体资金面比较紧缺的背景下，我们对铝价保持谨慎看多的态度，沪铝上方关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>17000</SPAN>整数关口的突破，目前虽存在看跌的因素，但技术面的走强使得目前投资者不宜放空。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>1 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期棉收低，因周末前投资人获利了结。<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月期棉合约下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.33</SPAN>美分，收报每磅<SPAN lang=EN-US>204.49</SPAN>美 分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、美国农业部<SPAN lang=EN-US>(USDA)</SPAN>公布的棉花出口销售报告显示，截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="17" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>17</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>当周，美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010-11</SPAN>年度棉花销售<SPAN lang=EN-US> 331,000</SPAN>包；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011-12</SPAN>年度棉花净销售<SPAN lang=EN-US>213,800</SPAN>包。当周美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010-11</SPAN>年度棉花出口装船<SPAN lang=EN-US>400,000</SPAN>包。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、<SPAN lang=EN-US>Cotlook</SPAN>称，将<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>月止的<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010/11</SPAN>年度全球棉花消费预估削减至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2489.6</SPAN>万吨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月份公司给出的预估值 为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2530.7</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>30542</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，与上一交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>554</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>287</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨 ）。截止<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="25" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，全国棉花交易市场业务棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>299745</SPAN>吨，较上一日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>4664</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">主产区天气：未来三天，新疆西部、内蒙古东北部、东北地区中北部等地将有小到中雪或雨夹雪；西藏东南部、西南地区、江南中西部、华南中西部以及台湾等地有小到中雨或阵雨，其中，西藏东南部、云 南西南部局地有大雨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：因获利了结影响，美棉高位回落，本周<SPAN lang=EN-US>USDA</SPAN>将公布年度种植面积预估报告，分析公司<SPAN lang=EN-US> Informa Economics</SPAN>预期美国棉花种植面积将为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1,313</SPAN>万英亩，为五年来最高水平；国内纺织企业因面临纱 线的库存压力，主要以销售库存产品为主，采购积极性不高。现货价格小幅下跌，棉企出货积极性增加，市场成交清淡的局面未转变。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约小幅回落，期价位于<SPAN lang=EN-US>30000</SPAN>关口上方整理，短线测试<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>周均线压 力，中期维持高位震荡走势。操作上，短线交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">继周四暴涨逾<SPAN lang=EN-US>3%</SPAN>后，由于市场方面担心潮湿天气会影响巴西的甘蔗品质，在投机买盘的推动下，周五<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>糖市原糖期货价格继续小幅上扬，不过，当日糖市的成交量有所萎缩。当日<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>期约糖价<SPAN lang=EN-US>41</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>+1.5%</SPAN>），收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>27.86</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅，盘中<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>期约糖价一度<SPAN lang=EN-US>28.00</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅的高点；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1107</SPAN>期约糖价同时上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>31</SPAN>个点<SPAN lang=EN-US>(+1.2%)</SPAN>，以<SPAN lang=EN-US>25.62</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅报收。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、广西崇左市部署推进甘蔗宿根翻种工作<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、巴西港口运糖商船减至<SPAN lang=EN-US>23</SPAN>艘<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">国内现货未有明显变化，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7250</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1617</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>994</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">国内主产区天气情况：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">北部湾海面：今晚到明天，阴天间多云，东北风<SPAN lang=EN-US>5-6</SPAN>级；<SPAN lang=EN-US>48</SPAN>小时，多云，东北风<SPAN lang=EN-US>4-5</SPAN>级；<SPAN lang=EN-US>72</SPAN>小时，阴天有小雨，偏东<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">风<SPAN lang=EN-US>4-5</SPAN>级。合浦到东兴沿海各地台风警报站，所挂的强风信号一号风球不改变。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约延续反弹走势，但<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>日等均线构成技术压力，成交及持仓量继续萎缩，市场反弹动能逐渐衰竭。操作上，中线以逢高抛空为宜。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">油脂：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：生物柴油消费前景利好支撑豆油期货收高，<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>豆 油继续反弹，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>56.84</SPAN>美分；因担忧马来西亚棕榈油出口的下降将提高全球第二大棕榈油生产国马来西亚的棕榈油 库存量，<SPAN lang=EN-US>BMD</SPAN>棕榈油期货继续下跌，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>月合约下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>令吉收于<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3261</SPAN>令吉<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；周末前的获利了结修正了上扬动能，<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>加拿大 油菜籽期货主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月合约<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.90</SPAN>加元，报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>581.30</SPAN>加元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>公吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息：国际方面，南美大豆增产基本确定，<SPAN lang=EN-US>USDA</SPAN>报告表示 美国豆油销售量有所下滑；<SPAN lang=EN-US>ITS</SPAN>和<SPAN lang=EN-US>SGS</SPAN>数据显示，马来西亚棕榈 油出口水平较为疲弱，未来库存水平依然有望增长。国内方面 ，商务部数据显示，国内食用油市场价格小幅走高；根据海关统计，国内油脂进口水平依然处于相对低位。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现受期货市场震荡反弹影响，国内油脂现货价格相对于前周小幅反弹，幅度在<SPAN lang=EN-US>100-300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。沿海四级豆油约为<SPAN lang=EN-US> 9950-10100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；港口棕榈油报价集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9200-9700</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；国 内四级菜油出厂价格处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>10000-10300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">仓单：豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>7735</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>610</SPAN>张；棕榈油，<SPAN lang=EN-US> 0</SPAN>张；菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>13129</SPAN>张；均无变化。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：上周以来，国内油脂基本维持震荡偏弱态势，三大油脂处于五日均线附近与<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线之间反复整理，短期内 方向不明朗。在周四美国新年度作物种植意向报告出台之前，市场缺乏明确指引，建议投资者根据外盘表现短线操作，逢高 轻仓短空为宜。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">谷物：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、美政府驻中国的分析师称，中国玉米进口量将创近<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>年来的新高，这将加重全球玉米供需紧张的压力。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、据联合国粮农组织（<SPAN lang=EN-US>FAO</SPAN>）表示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年全球小麦产量将会提高，同时<SPAN lang=EN-US>FAO</SPAN>还上调了<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年谷物产量数据，还警告说，由于需求增长，粮食供应依然吃紧。<SPAN lang=EN-US>FAO</SPAN>预计<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年全球小麦产量将增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.4%</SPAN>，达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.76</SPAN>亿吨，因为单产改善，价格上涨促使农户提高种植面积。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3</SPAN>、据菲律宾国家粮食署表示，菲律宾已经从越南买入了<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>万吨大米，价格非常不错。这批破碎率<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>大米的<SPAN lang=EN-US>CNF</SPAN>价为每吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>480</SPAN>美元，到货日期定在四月和六月。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米期货收跌，下挫约<SPAN lang=EN-US>2%</SPAN>，因交易者锁定了前期的获利。<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米：<SPAN lang=EN-US>689.5</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>-13<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货价格：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、山东莱州当地一等强筋小麦（济南<SPAN lang=EN-US>17</SPAN>号、<SPAN lang=EN-US>9369</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>3259</SPAN>）贸易商收购价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2300-2340</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>20-40</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；大型面粉出口加工企业挂牌价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2480-2520</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，基本稳定，社会粮源偏紧。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、华南地区早籼稻价格稳定在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2220</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，价格平稳<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>江西九江地区价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2160</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，安徽合肥稳定在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2120</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、国内玉米现货价格稳中略有走弱。其中：大连港内玉米平舱价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2160-2180</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，江西南昌东北玉米到站价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2300-2310</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；广东港东北玉米报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2280-2300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，山东青岛饲料厂玉米进厂价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2140-2180</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">操作提示：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">郑麦：期价小幅震荡，反弹之后形成一个小的整理平台，但笔者认为在基本面的配合下，期价仍是一个偏多的态势，近期继续关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>2900</SPAN>一线的得失。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">早籼稻：期价连续四个交易日走弱，近期未获得足够的突破动力，窄幅平台整理的时间较大，但预计长期依旧看好，近期逐步建立多单。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">玉米：期价震荡走强，远月合约表现良好，近期多单关注远期合约。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">大豆豆粕：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、美豆一月份压榨量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.2944</SPAN>亿蒲式耳，与此前市场预估的水平接近。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、巴西地区大豆收割受到降雨的侵害，但后几日的天气将会改善。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFTC</SPAN>持仓报告显示商品基金继续增加大豆期货净多持仓。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">大豆期货小幅收涨，涨幅有限，市场摆脱周边市场下跌影响，因受播种面积的担忧提振。<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>大豆：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1358.25</SPAN>美分，<SPAN lang=EN-US> +3.75</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货价格：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、核算的进口大豆成本稳平稳，<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月船期的巴西大豆价格今天核算在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4490</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。黑龙江佳木斯国产大豆的收购价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3820</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，部分品质好的大豆在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3860-3880</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨以上。目前沿海港口的分销价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4250</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，平稳。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">豆粕现货价格回升，但幅度不大，大连地区豆粕现货价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3060</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，山东日照地区价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，江苏地区价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">盘面分析：盘面走势较强，特别是大豆再次成为上涨的领头品种，期价再次大幅上涨，拉出长阳，持仓和成交都大幅增加。在大豆指引下，豆粕持仓回升，盘中走势强劲，扭转前几日持仓下滑带来的不利局面。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">值得关注的大豆的近远月合约走势的差异，不同年度的基本面将使得多头资金更青睐远期合约，而近月合约如<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>的套保压力较大。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">操作建议：期价走势偏强，特别是大豆的强势显示出了市场开始走强的特征，但是目前形成的宽幅震荡格局没有被突破，笔者认为近期还需要确认这个强势特征。但在操作上，笔者保持前期的观点，豆类长线的趋势未有变化，可继续持有前期的多单为主，保持轻仓。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>1 PTA<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油收跌，受获利了结打压，市场关注中东局势，<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 4</SPAN>月原油期货下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.2</SPAN>美元 ，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>105.4</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、中石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>结算价执行<SPAN lang=EN-US>13500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨， 较<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月结算价格上调<SPAN lang=EN-US>450</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、中石化 销售分公司<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月份<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>结算价格出台<SPAN lang=EN-US>12000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，较<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月份结算上调<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。翔鹭石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>合约货结 算价出台<SPAN lang=EN-US>11900</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月下调<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货价格：华东<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场气氛清淡，现货报盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>11650</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，买卖双方多数观望，市场主流商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US> 11550-11600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近展开，市场交投气氛不佳。亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场气氛清淡，台产现货报盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>1530-1535</SPAN>美 元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，买家询盘稀少，主流商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1525-1530</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，实盘稀少。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>8887</SPAN>张，较上一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：日本出光兴产<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>挂牌价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1800</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFR</SPAN>亚洲，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>价格维持高位，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>工厂检修计划增 多，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>主流供应商结算价出台至<SPAN lang=EN-US>19000-12000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，短期成本推动<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>震荡攀升；<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场气氛清淡， 买方仍以观望居多，拿货心态谨慎。江浙涤丝市场持稳，下游部分地区限电陆续出现，涤丝按需小批量采购为主，持观望心态；聚酯切片维持盘整，市场交投气氛平静。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA1109</SPAN>合约小幅回落，期价围绕<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线震 荡，短线面临<SPAN lang=EN-US>11800-12000</SPAN>压力，延续高位震荡走势。操作上，回落短多<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>冲高减仓。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">连塑<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、台塑增资扩建宁波<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>乳化粉厂<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2</SPAN>、长三角成为我国塑料模具制造业重要基地<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格明显回落。扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>10950</SPAN>，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>400</SPAN>元。东北亚报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1343</SPAN>——<SPAN lang=EN-US>1342</SPAN>美元，东南亚报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1255</SPAN>—<SPAN lang=EN-US>1257</SPAN>美元，与上一交易日持平。市场交投谨慎。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>2309</SPAN>张，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：今日连塑弱势回调，显示<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线的压力较大，短期仍有蓄势要求。基本面上，利比亚格局持续紧张，且有向他国蔓延之势对原油形成一定的支撑、亚洲乙烯止跌回升对其产生一定的支撑。但<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格大幅回落则对其形成一定的压力。操作上，建议投资者手中多单以<SPAN lang=EN-US>11350</SPAN>一线为止损位谨慎持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 PVC<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、英力特<SPAN lang=EN-US>275</SPAN>万吨电石项目开建<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2</SPAN>、工信部酝酿电石淘汰落后新计划<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货市场走势平稳。<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFR</SPAN>远东报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1142</SPAN>美元，华东电石法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7850</SPAN>元，华东乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8200</SPAN>元，均与昨日持平。西北电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300</SPAN>元，华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3850</SPAN>元，无涨跌。市场成交一般。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>张，与上一交易日持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>窄幅震荡，短线正在十日均线与<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线的夹板中整理。近期即将重新选择方向。基本面上，利比亚格局持续紧张，且有向他国蔓延之势对原油形成一定的支撑、亚洲现货走势坚挺，现货价格有所回升也对其产生一定的支撑。预计短期反弹格局有望得到延续，操作上，投资者手中多单可谨慎持有，上方压力位<SPAN lang=EN-US>8200</SPAN>——<SPAN lang=EN-US>8220</SPAN>一线。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">沪胶<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>TOCOM</SPAN>橡胶期货<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>日收盘下跌，削减了一周涨幅，对最大的消费者中国需求可能放缓的担忧拖累了橡胶期货市场，因中国政府继续收紧货币政策抑制通胀。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：日本橡胶贸易协会周五公布的数据显示，截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="10" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，日本天然橡胶库存较截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="28" Month="2" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>28</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>减少<SPAN lang=EN-US> 6.9%</SPAN>，至<SPAN lang=EN-US>7,568</SPAN>吨，最新的库存数据较上年同期的<SPAN lang=EN-US>8,091</SPAN>吨减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.4%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：目前云南标一胶市场参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>38000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，海南标一胶参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>37900</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右， 越南<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="3" UnitName="l"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3L</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>胶参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>38300-38500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右（<SPAN lang=EN-US>13%</SPAN>票），泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US>3#</SPAN>烟片在<SPAN lang=EN-US>43000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右（<SPAN lang=EN-US>17%</SPAN>票）；贸易商报 价整体变化不大，下游采购谨慎，市场成交商谈为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">亚洲各橡胶主产区天气预报如下：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>曼谷<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>阴<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="24" UnitName="℃">24<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="30" UnitName="℃">30<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv></SPAN></SPAN> 风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">越南<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>河内<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>阴<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="14" UnitName="℃">14<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="20" UnitName="℃">20<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv></SPAN></SPAN> 风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">胡志明市 雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="23" UnitName="℃">23<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="29" UnitName="℃">29<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv></SPAN></SPAN> 风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">马来西亚 吉隆坡<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="24" UnitName="℃">24<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="32" UnitName="℃">32<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv></SPAN></SPAN> 风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">印尼<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>雅加达<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="26" UnitName="℃">26<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="31" UnitName="℃">31<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv></SPAN></SPAN> 风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>19475</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>985</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：目前国际胶价在泰国政府影响下大幅度反弹，加上当前国内外橡胶库存均表现偏低，这都给期胶一定的支撑，但近期金融市场的焦点已转移至利比亚的军事格局上，国际局势存在着变数，市场心态不 稳。从盘面来看，沪胶<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约上方<SPAN lang=EN-US>37000-37500</SPAN>区间存在压力，短期料难出现趋势性大涨，建议投资者采 取日内操作。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘走势：<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="25" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，因投资者获利了结，纽约商业交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>(NYMEX)</SPAN>原油期货结算价小幅走低，但连续第 三个交易日维持在每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>105</SPAN>美元上方。交易员依旧密切关注利比亚局势和日本危机将对原油供需前景产生的影响。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、巴克莱资本调高今年原油均价预测；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、印度石油计划分析协会（<SPAN lang=EN-US>PPAC</SPAN>）网站显示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月份 印度炼厂每天加工<SPAN lang=EN-US>342</SPAN>万桶原油，比<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月份的每天<SPAN lang=EN-US>346</SPAN>万桶下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.16%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>日黄埔到岸价，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>666.42</SPAN>美元，到岸贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>14-15</SPAN>美元，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>380 </SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>650.70</SPAN>美元。华南混调油周五最新交易估价：船用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>交易过驳价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4800-4810</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；库提价<SPAN lang=EN-US> 4810-4820</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上周上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；国产锅炉用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>交易价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4550-4600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上周上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/ </SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>502400</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1000</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：目前利比亚军事形势提振了国际原油价格，中东局势的发展有望支撑国际油价保持在高位。由于外盘走势乐观，目前华南地区调油料惜售现象略有显现，价格有望继续上行，从而带动混调油市场价格 延续稳中小涨趋势。从盘面上看，沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约期价上行乏力，但下方<SPAN lang=EN-US>4700</SPAN>一线有所支撑，预计短期期价运 行于<SPAN lang=EN-US>4700-4800</SPAN>，建议区间操作。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">股指期货</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">瑞达期货：市场情绪平稳，期指或震荡上扬<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘指数<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">道琼斯<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>12220.59<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>50.03<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.41%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">纳斯达克<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2743.06<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>6.64<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.24%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1313.80<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>4.14<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.32%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">富时<SPAN lang=EN-US>100<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>5900.76<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>19.89<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.34%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>6946.36<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>12.78<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.18%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAC40<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3972.38<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3.54 <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.09%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>C0MEX</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1426.2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>-8.7<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>-0.61%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">原油<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>105.40<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>-0.20<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>-0.19%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>76.133<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.424<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.56%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">小结：周五美股收高，至此大盘已经连续第三个交易日走高。科技行业巨头甲骨文的乐观财报以及美国去年第四季度<SPAN lang=EN-US>GDP</SPAN>增幅好于预期，令投资者情绪振奋。欧洲股市周五小幅上扬，德国软件集团<SPAN lang=EN-US>SAP</SPAN>与法国农业信贷银行领涨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>1. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">央行：国际大宗商品价格仍有上涨空间，今年美元、欧元走势或偏弱，而新兴市场通胀风险较大；逐步向境外人民币持有主体开放证券市场；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>2. 13</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">城市提出房价调控目标多数与居民收入和<SPAN lang=EN-US>GDP</SPAN>挂钩<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>下跌预期或落空；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">周五公布数据显示：美国第四季度实际<SPAN lang=EN-US>GDP</SPAN>年率增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.1%</SPAN>，表明美国经济复苏走强，经济增长高于预期；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">由于汽油和食品价格有所上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月消费者信心指数降至一年多低点；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>5. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">欧盟峰会就欧洲稳定机制基金的资金来源达成共识，并通过主权债务危机的全面应对方案；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>6. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">打击利比亚或持续数周，利比亚禁飞区交由北约执行。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">持仓分析<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="25" Month="3" Year="2011"><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="25" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">月<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>日</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">前</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>20</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">名多头主力持单（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>19733</SPAN>手，空头主力持仓（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>25121</SPAN>手，净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>5388</SPAN>手，净空持仓增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>578</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">上周五期指人气回升，期指放量强力反弹。从持仓结构来看，多空主力均主动大幅增仓，其中，空头龙头日内增仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>1031</SPAN>手，而排名第一的多头<st1:PersonName w:st="on" ProductID="国泰">国泰</st1:PersonName>君安大幅增多<SPAN lang=EN-US>828</SPAN>手，继续对垒。从持仓结构来看，多头增仓积极性较前几日显著。再结合强势外盘，预计下周期指仍将继续上行为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">主力合约<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>上周五报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3298.4</SPAN>点，预计周一<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>合约运行区间在：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3330-3270</SPAN>点之间。如上方冲破<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3330 </SPAN>点可以小多，止损下设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点；如下方破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3270</SPAN>点，可以介入空单，止损上设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点。如在区间内窄幅震荡，可以高空低多的策略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">合约名称<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>强阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>强支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>HS 300<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3350<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3320<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3260 3230<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>IF1104<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3360<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3330<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3270 3240<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>IF1105<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3370<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3340<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3280 3250<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>IF1106<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3390<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3360<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3300 3270<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>IF1109<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3430<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3400<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3340 3310<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">『免责声明：期市瞬息万变，盘中突发消息也将影响走势突变，投资人应盘
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