<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">金属产品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铅 锌<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜，伦锌剧烈震荡，日线收十字阳星，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2415</SPAN>美元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.09%</SPAN>；伦铅明显下挫，盘中一度创出新高，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2678</SPAN>美元，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.79%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>铅期货上市涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.19% </SPAN>尚福林冀理性参与<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月耐用品订单意外下降<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>18100-18200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上交易日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>545-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>445</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>18050-18150</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>595-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>495</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>铅报<SPAN lang=EN-US>18000-18200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上交易日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>库存方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>735450</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>300</SPAN>吨，上海交易所锌期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>310735</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>2105</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铅库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>286625</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1275</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>观点总结：基本面上，铅锌均处于供求过剩的局面。资金面上，沪锌主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单维持在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.5</SPAN>万手以上；沪铅主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1394</SPAN>手，净空单比例高于沪锌。整体来看，资金操作偏空。技术显示，沪锌缺口受阻，关注能否突破；沪铅上方压力较大。操作建议：沪锌、沪铅观望或日内交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>Comex</SPAN>金<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月开盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>1438.3</SPAN>，最高触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>1447.2</SPAN>，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>1423.7</SPAN>，收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>1434.9</SPAN>，成交<SPAN lang=EN-US>173360</SPAN>手，持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>189995</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>．美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月耐用品订单月比下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.9%</SPAN>预期中值月升<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.2%<BR>2</SPAN>．截至<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="19" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>19</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>当周美国首次申请失业金人数为<SPAN lang=EN-US>38.2</SPAN>万人预期中值为<SPAN lang=EN-US>38.3</SPAN>万人<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> <st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="24" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on">3<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月24</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>沪金1106</SPAN></SPAN>合约早盘小幅高开<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.69</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克至<SPAN lang=EN-US>304.00</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，日内最高<SPAN lang=EN-US>304.08</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>303.26</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，收盘上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.99</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.33%</SPAN>，成交量<SPAN lang=EN-US>9984</SPAN>手，较上一个交易日有所增加，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>42094</SPAN>手，减仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>1990</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>ETF</SPAN>持仓方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>全球最大的黄金上市交易基金<SPAN lang=EN-US>(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust</SPAN>表示，其黄金持仓量截至<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="25" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1,213.96</SPAN>吨，较上一个交易日减持<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.91</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>本周四金价再次在避险情绪推动下刷新纪录高点，之后在高位获利盘及技术性卖盘打压下有所回落，由于短期涨幅较大，仍有进一步修正可能，近期关注价格自<SPAN lang=EN-US>1450-1400</SPAN>的区间上落行情，短线期金建议暂时以观望为主，中线<SPAN lang=EN-US>295-292</SPAN>仍可介入多单，中线目标<SPAN lang=EN-US>310 330</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铜<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜伦铜在均线组之上小幅震荡，波动区间为<SPAN lang=EN-US>9783-9642</SPAN>，尾盘跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.45%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9701.</SPAN>昨日美国疲软的耐用品订单数据打压铜价自高位出现回落，但因铜价最终仍收于均线组之上，表明铜价表现出较强的抗跌性，目前上涨趋势仍在。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>经季调后，美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月耐用品订单下滑<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.9%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1999.9</SPAN>亿美元，而之前市场预期为增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.5%</SPAN>，数据利空铜价，因铜被广泛用于制造业。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>周四，西方对利比亚的军事打击进入第五晚，但迄今尚未能阻止卡扎菲军队的坦克对反对派占据的城镇发动袭击，亦未能将其装甲部队从东部一战略枢纽赶走。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：上海金属网铜现货报价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>71350-71600</SPAN>，较昨日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>300</SPAN>元，现货较期货升水<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>，较昨日升水<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>小幅缩窄；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.55-7.56</SPAN>，比价小幅回升，表明沪铜近两日主要以小幅跟涨伦铜为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存：<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="24" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>24</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>伦铜库存增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>475</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>434625</SPAN>，目前注销仓单占库存比处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.11%</SPAN>，连续第二日上涨，但仍处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>之下，预计后期库存有望继续增加。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：隔夜伦铜最高冲至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9783</SPAN>，再创两周来的新高，但晚间在疲软的美国耐用品订单数据的打压下，回吐部分涨幅，回到<SPAN lang=EN-US>9701.</SPAN>目前铜价技术性表现较强，上涨趋势仍在，今日沪铜<SPAN lang=EN-US>1106</SPAN>合约料开至<SPAN lang=EN-US>72700</SPAN>附近，有望再度考验下方<SPAN lang=EN-US>72000</SPAN>的支撑，因此今日铜价料延续小幅震荡行情，操作上前期多仓可继续少量持有，暂不建议抛空。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="mm" SourceValue="8" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0">8mm</st1:chmetcnv> Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4550</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持平；<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="mm" SourceValue="20" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4850</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>(1) </SPAN>浦项钢铁销量上调<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>万吨以上满足受灾的日本客户；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) </SPAN>必和必拓向澳大利亚煤炭铁矿石业务投资数百亿美元；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) </SPAN>担忧地方财政，银行保障房信贷暂时观望；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(4) </SPAN>印度粉矿<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="24" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>24</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>指数参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>171</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>6004</SPAN>吨，增持<SPAN lang=EN-US>2708</SPAN>。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">小结：螺纹在最近一段日子上演了宽幅震荡行情，市场预计日本灾后重建将拉动基本金属及钢材的需求，但目前现货市场成交仍较为不理想，市场多空分歧加大。操作上建议，鉴于近期沪钢波动频繁，维持区间操作日内交易，注意风险控制。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铝<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：隔夜伦铝最高冲至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2650</SPAN>，创下<st1:chsdate Year="2008" Month="9" Day="9" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>08</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>以来的高点，但晚间在较差的美国经济数据的打压下，自高位出现回落，尾盘跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.3%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2623</SPAN>，为日内低点附近，暗示铝价上行动能出现放缓。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>经季调后，美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月耐用品订单下滑<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.9%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1999.9</SPAN>亿美元，而之前市场预期为增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.5%</SPAN>，数据利空铜价，因铜被广泛用于制造业。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>周四，西方对利比亚的军事打击进入第五晚，但迄今尚未能阻止卡扎菲军队的坦克对反对派占据的城镇发动袭击，亦未能将其装甲部队从东部一战略枢纽赶走。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：上海金属网铝现货报价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>16550-16570</SPAN>，较昨日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，现货较期货贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>，昨日表现为贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>45</SPAN>；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.42-6.41</SPAN>，较昨日出现下跌，表明内盘跟涨意愿较差。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>24</SPAN>伦铝库存大幅增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>14425</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4608875</SPAN>，目前注销仓单占库存比处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5.38%</SPAN>，较昨日出现小幅下跌。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：隔夜伦铝冲高回落，铝价高位出现上影线较长的阴线，这是价格出现回调的信号，需引起投资者的关注。近来美国经济数据表现不佳，市场重燃对美国经济成长的担忧，因此基本金属上行动能有所放缓，今日沪铝料演绎震荡走低行情，操作上铝价若跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日均线，则前期多单先行离场。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>1 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>因连续潮湿天气可能影响巴西的开榨及美元走弱，在经过连续三天下跌后，由于空头回补的支撑，本周四<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>糖市原糖期货价格全线反弹，近期合约的涨幅更超过了<SPAN lang=EN-US>3%</SPAN>。当日<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>期约上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>87</SPAN>个点，收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>27.45</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1107</SPAN>期约上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>66</SPAN>个点，以<SPAN lang=EN-US>25.31</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅报收。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、云南大部出现降雨，适合甘蔗播种<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 2</SPAN>、墨西哥截止<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="19" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>19</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>共产糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>363</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>国内现货小幅上调，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7250</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1417</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1194</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内主产区天气情况：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>今天白天到晚上，全区阴天大部有小雨。南宁市<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>今天白天到晚上，阴天有分散小雨，东北风<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-2</SPAN>级，最高气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="14" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>14℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>最低气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="10" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>10℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约反弹回补前期向下跳空缺口后无力继续上行，<SPAN lang=EN-US>RSI</SPAN>强弱指标显示反弹乏力。操作上，中线以逢高抛空为宜<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">谷物 ：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、波罗的海贸易海运交易所干散货运价指数周三上涨，尽管船运业务仍维持低迷，且船只供应充裕的阴云仍笼罩市场。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年，我国累计进口玉米<SPAN lang=EN-US>157</SPAN>万吨；出口玉米<SPAN lang=EN-US>13</SPAN>万吨。今年<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月份，进口量<SPAN lang=EN-US>1858</SPAN>吨，环比减<SPAN lang=EN-US>87.7%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3</SPAN>、据菲律宾国家粮食署表示，菲律宾已经从越南买入了<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>万吨大米，价格非常不错。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米期货走高，受小麦市场上涨推动，加上中国采购的传言重燃，给予了多头信心。<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米：<SPAN lang=EN-US>702.5</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US> +21.5<BR></SPAN>现货价格：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、山东德州小麦市场价格坚挺，粮库装车价格<SPAN lang=EN-US>2180</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，贸易商收购价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2120</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨以上，价格较前几日持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2</SPAN>、华南地区早籼稻价格稳定在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2220</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，价格上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>江西九江地区价格涨到了在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2160</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，安徽合肥稳定在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2120</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3</SPAN>、国内玉米现货价格整体平稳，局部小幅上涨，广东港口玉米报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2280-2300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；大连港内玉米平舱价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2170-2180</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>操作提示：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>郑麦：期价走势仍弱于玉米，品种之间走势轮动，但经历了昨天的强势后，期价仍是一个短期偏多的态势，近期仍需关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>2900</SPAN>一线的得失。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>早籼稻：期价小幅回落，走势较为谨慎，但良好的基本面未变，近期仍可持有偏多思路<SPAN lang=EN-US>.<BR></SPAN>玉米：玉米小幅走低，缩减了昨天的涨幅，成交量有所下滑。期价虽然走低，但是预计调整之后，期价仍有望保持强势。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR><BR>3 </SPAN>油脂 ：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：受小麦、玉米强劲上涨推动，<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>豆油下探回升，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>56.12</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>因预期更高的价格和中东的紧张局势正<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>削弱需求，<SPAN lang=EN-US>BMD</SPAN>棕榈油期货继续下跌，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>月合约下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>97</SPAN>令吉<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3270</SPAN>令吉<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>大豆和豆油尾盘拉升帮助提振了油菜籽<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>价格上扬，<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>加拿大油菜籽期货主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月合约上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.40</SPAN>加元，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>579.40</SPAN>加元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>公吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息：国际方面，<SPAN lang=EN-US>Farm Futures</SPAN>在对超过<SPAN lang=EN-US>1400</SPAN>名农户的调查后表示，美国玉米种植面积将达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>9140</SPAN>万英亩，大豆种植面积为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7850</SPAN>万英亩。国内方面，商务部最数据显示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>14-20</SPAN>日国内食用油批发价格出现回落，其中菜籽油下降幅度最大。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货：昨日油脂现货报价基本稳定，沿海四级豆油约为<SPAN lang=EN-US> 9950-10100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；港口棕榈油报价集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9200-9700</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；国<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>内四级菜油出厂价格处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>10000-10300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单：豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>7125</SPAN>张；棕榈油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>张；菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>13129</SPAN>张；均无变化。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：目前，国内油脂依然维持震荡偏弱态势，建议投资者保持谨慎态度，关注月底美国种植意向报告。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">大豆豆粕：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、国务院办公厅印发全国粮食稳定增产行动意见，意见指出要确保<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年全年粮食产量在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>万亿斤以上，争取连续第八个丰收年。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、阿根廷地区出现降雨，缓解了上月来的旱情，目前阿根廷早熟大豆已开始收割，产量预估目前在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4880-5000</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">大豆期货小幅收涨，主要是受外部市场带动，近期期价走势比较徘徊。<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>大豆：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1354.5</SPAN>美分，<SPAN lang=EN-US> +3.25<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货价格：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、核算的进口大豆成本稳中略跌，<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月船期的巴西大豆价格今天核算在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4490</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。黑龙江佳木斯国产大豆的收购价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3820</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，部分品质好的大豆在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3860</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨以上。目前沿海港口的分销价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4250</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，平稳。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">豆粕现货价格下跌，现货成交不佳，油厂难以挺价，目前议价空间较大，山东沿海地区价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3100-3120</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，江苏地区价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，广西防城港地区价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，各地价格下跌了<SPAN lang=EN-US>10-20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">盘面分析：盘面走势偏弱，缩减了昨日的涨幅，也显示出市场目前的调整特征，豆油期价跌幅较大，从而带动了豆粕大豆期价在早盘整理后，午后盘快速走低。值得关注的豆油的持仓成交上升，但大豆豆粕的持仓下滑，特别是豆粕的持仓继续下滑，显示出近期豆类市场继续反弹的力度不足。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">操作建议：目前的基本面没有根本性的利多消息出现，期价在经历了前期反弹之后，继续上行的动力不足。但在操作上，长线的趋势未有变化，目前可继续持有前期的多单为主，保持轻仓<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期棉大幅收高，受投资者买盘推动。指标<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE-5</SPAN>月期棉合约下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.09</SPAN>美分，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>201.87</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、美国权威预测机构<SPAN lang=EN-US>Informa</SPAN>公司最新预测显示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年度美国意向植棉面积为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1313</SPAN>万英亩（<SPAN lang=EN-US>7976</SPAN>万亩）。目前，市场人士的预测范围是<SPAN lang=EN-US>1300-1350</SPAN>万英亩（<SPAN lang=EN-US>7897-8200</SPAN>万亩）。国外分析人士认为，如果按<SPAN lang=EN-US>1320</SPAN>万英亩<SPAN lang=EN-US>(8019</SPAN>万亩）计算，考虑到美国产棉区干旱可能导致荒地面积大增，新年度的美棉供应仍将趋紧。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、据海关数据显示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月，我国进口棉纱<SPAN lang=EN-US>5.55</SPAN>万吨，环比下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>43.93%</SPAN>，同比减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>10.88%</SPAN>；出口棉纱<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.52</SPAN>万吨，环比下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>34.78%</SPAN>，同比减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>9.72%</SPAN>；净进口量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.03</SPAN>万吨，环比下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>49.78%</SPAN>，同比减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>11.83%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、<SPAN lang=EN-US>23</SPAN>日进口棉报价继续上调，大部分品种上涨了<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>美分，澳棉和巴西棉上涨了<SPAN lang=EN-US>4-5</SPAN>美分，中亚棉上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>美分。近期，频繁波动的棉价使纺织企业对外棉的采购减少，而将注意力转向地产棉，美棉合同被取消的情况仍屡见不鲜。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>30547</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，与上一交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>23</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>547</SPAN>张，较上一交易日持平，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。截止<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="23" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>23</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，全国棉花交易市场业务棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>295081</SPAN>吨，较上一日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>2362</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">主产区天气：未来三天，南方大部多阴雨天气，江南大部、华南、西南地区及台湾等地有小雨或阵雨。青藏高原南部和中东部偏南地区、新疆西南部、内蒙古东北部、东北地区中北部等地将有小到中雪（雨）或雨夹雪，其中川西高原中北部的局地有大雪。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：因美国主要棉产区德州遭遇干旱，美棉大幅上涨，分析公司<SPAN lang=EN-US>Informa Economics</SPAN>预期美国棉花种植面积将为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1,313</SPAN>万英亩，为五年来最高水平；国内纺织企业因面临纱线的库存压力，主要以销售库存产品为主，采购积极性不高。现货价格小幅下跌，买卖双方成交量较低，市场陷入静态观望期。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约小幅回落，期价位于<SPAN lang=EN-US>30000</SPAN>关口上方整理，短线测试<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>周均线压力，中期维持高位震荡走势。操作上，短多交易，冲高适当减仓。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">连塑<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、欧洲聚乙烯价格高吸引亚洲货进入<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、中国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月塑料制品产量同比增<SPAN lang=EN-US>17.7% 3</SPAN>、大庆炼化聚丙烯产销两旺<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格走势平稳。扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>11350</SPAN>，东北亚报<SPAN lang=EN-US>13430——1342</SPAN>美元，东南亚报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1255—1257</SPAN>美元，与上一交易日持平。市场交投谨慎。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>2409</SPAN>张，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1222</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日连塑高开低走，五日均线暂时为其提供了一定的支撑。基本面上，利比亚格局持续紧张，且有向他国蔓延之势对原油形成一定的支撑、亚洲乙烯止跌回升，<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格坚挺其产生一定的支撑。<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>短期仍有反弹要求。后市若关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>11630</SPAN>一线的压力。操作上，建议投资者手中多单可谨慎持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>PVC <BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、中国昊华百万吨聚氯乙烯项目昨日于贵阳正式开工<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="5" Day="1" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>起降低住房交易手续费等项目收<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货市场小幅上涨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFR</SPAN>远东报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1142</SPAN>美元，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>美元。华东电石法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7850</SPAN>元，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元。华东乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8200</SPAN>元，与昨日持平。西北电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300</SPAN>元，华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3850</SPAN>元，无涨跌。市场成交一般。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>张，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>反弹受阻，<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线的压力开始显示，但<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日均线的支撑也较为明显。基本面上，利比亚格局持续紧张，且有向他国蔓延之势对原油形成一定的支撑、亚洲现货走势坚挺，现货价格有所回升也对其产生一定的支撑。预计短期反弹格局有望得到延续，操作上，投资者手中多单可谨慎持有，上方压力位<SPAN lang=EN-US>8200——8220</SPAN>一线。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 PTA<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油收跌，受获利回吐影响，<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 4</SPAN>月原油期货下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.15</SPAN>美元，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>105.6</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、日本出光兴产<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>挂牌价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1800</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFR</SPAN>亚洲，较<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月份上调<SPAN lang=EN-US>145</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>BP</SPAN>珠海<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年的装置运行正常，据悉公司产能<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年的<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>装置计划将于<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月底进行为期一周的停车检修。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货价格：华东<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场气氛坚挺，持货商报盘意向在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11700</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，买家追涨积极性一般，市场主流商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11600-11650</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近展开，实盘稀少。亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场气氛趋稳，台产保税货源报盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1540</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，买家跟进积极性一般，主流商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1530-1535</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，韩货报盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>1530</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>8927</SPAN>张，较上一交易日持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：日本出光兴产<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>挂牌价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1800</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFR</SPAN>亚洲，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>价格维持高位，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>工厂检修计划增多，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>一主流供应商结算价出台至<SPAN lang=EN-US>12000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，对市场有所提振，短期成本推动<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>震荡攀升；<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场较为坚挺，买方仍以观望居多，拿货心态谨慎。江浙涤丝市场产销一般，多数工厂适度优惠促销；聚酯切片维持震荡，市场气氛一般。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA1109</SPAN>合约小幅收涨，期价受下方均线支撑震荡上行，短线测试<SPAN lang=EN-US>11800-12000</SPAN>压力，延续高位震荡走势。操作上，短多交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">沪胶<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>TOCOM</SPAN>橡胶期货<SPAN lang=EN-US>24</SPAN>日收高，因东南亚橡胶供应收紧而且原油价格上涨使得合成橡胶更加昂贵。<SPAN lang=EN-US>TOCOM 8</SPAN>月交割的橡胶期货<SPAN lang=EN-US>24</SPAN>日一度上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.1%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>442.8</SPAN>日元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>千克（<SPAN lang=EN-US>5,469</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>公吨），报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>436.4</SPAN>日元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/ </SPAN>千克<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、中橡协：轮胎召回制度应尽快落实；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、韩泰全面发力中国替换胎市场。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：目前云南标一胶市场参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>38000-38200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，海南标一胶参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>37900- 38000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，越南<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="l" SourceValue="3" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3L</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>胶参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>40000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨以上（<SPAN lang=EN-US>17%</SPAN>票），泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US>3#</SPAN>烟片在<SPAN lang=EN-US>43000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右（<SPAN lang=EN-US>17%</SPAN>票） ；贸易商报价继续走高，下游需求尚可，市场成交气氛一般。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">亚洲各橡胶主产区天气预报如下：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>曼谷<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="28" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0">28<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="24" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0">24<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">越南<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>河内<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>小到中雨<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="17" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0">17<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="13" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0">13<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">胡志明市<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="29" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0">29<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="24" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0">24<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">马来西亚 吉隆坡<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="32" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0">32<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="23" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0">23<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">印尼<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>雅加达<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="32" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0">32<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="25" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0">25<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>20460</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>75</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：目前国际胶价在泰国政府影响下大幅度反弹，加上当前国内外橡胶库存均表现偏低，这都给 期胶一定的支撑，但近期金融市场的焦点已转移至利比亚的军事格局上，国际局势存在着变数，市场心态不稳。从盘面来看，沪胶<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约上方<SPAN lang=EN-US>37000-37500</SPAN>区间存在压力，短期料难出现趋势性大涨，建议投资者采取日内操作。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘走势：<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="24" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>24</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，纽约商业交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>(NYMEX)</SPAN>原油期货结算价基本持平，因交易员权衡中东动乱升级和 欧洲主权债务危机担忧重燃的影响。<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>五月轻质低硫原油期货结算价跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>美分，至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>105.60</SPAN>美元，盘 中曾最高升至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>106.69</SPAN>美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>布伦特原油期货五月合约涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>17</SPAN>美分，至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>115.72</SPAN>美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、埃克森美孚获墨西哥湾深水钻井许可；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、巴西国油<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月份石油产量下降。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>24</SPAN>日黄埔到岸价，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>663.73</SPAN>美元，到岸贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>14-15</SPAN>美元，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>380 </SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>648.84</SPAN>美元。船用燃料油市场依然吃紧，尽管流入的套利船货增加，使得升水受到较好支撑。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>503400</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>3500</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：目前利比亚军事形势提振了国际原油价格，中东局势的发展使得市场对日本核危机的关注有所下降，但日本灾后重建也加大了原油需求的预期。由于外盘走势乐观，目前华南地区调油料惜售现象略有 显现，价格有望继续上行，从而带动混调油市场价格延续稳中小涨趋势。从盘面上看，沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约期价上行乏力，但下方<SPAN lang=EN-US>4700</SPAN>一线有所支撑，预计短期期价运行于<SPAN lang=EN-US>4700-4800</SPAN>，建议区间操作。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">股指期货</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">瑞达期货：市场情绪谨慎，期指或震荡盘整<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>道琼斯<SPAN lang=EN-US> 12170.56 84.54 0.70%<BR></SPAN>纳斯达克<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2736.42 38.12 1.41%<BR></SPAN>标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500 1309.66 12.12 0.93%<BR></SPAN>富时<SPAN lang=EN-US>100 5880.87 84.99 1.47%<BR></SPAN>德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX 6933.58 129.13 1.90%<BR></SPAN>法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAC40 3968.84 55.11 1.41%<BR>C0MEX</SPAN>黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1434.9 -3.1 -0.22%<BR>NYMEX</SPAN>原油<SPAN lang=EN-US> 105.60 -0.15 -0.14%<BR></SPAN>美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 75.709 -0.139 -0.18%<BR></SPAN>小结：周四美股收高，成交量清淡。市场对即将到来的企业财报抱有乐观期待。受英国零售与德国汽车股上涨刺激，欧洲股市周四强劲攀升。葡萄牙总理辞职的消息没有对市场造成大的影响。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1. </SPAN>本周央行共冻结资金约<SPAN lang=EN-US>4600</SPAN>亿，准备金今上缴；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2. </SPAN>汇丰中国制造业采购经理人指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>(PMI)</SPAN>：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月初值数据回升至<SPAN lang=EN-US>52.5,</SPAN>较上月回升；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3. </SPAN>张晓慧：货币政策将更多运用价格型调控；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>4. </SPAN>四大国有银行年报揭幕，中行<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年净利润破千亿，增长达<SPAN lang=EN-US>27%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>5. </SPAN>美国上周初请失业金人数下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>5000</SPAN>人，至<SPAN lang=EN-US>38.2</SPAN>万人，高于预期；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月耐用品订单环比降<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.9%</SPAN>，不及预期<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>6. </SPAN>惠誉调降葡萄牙长期国债评级，欧盟峰会紧急磋商应对；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>7. </SPAN>葡萄牙政局令欧元承压，巴菲特：欧元崩溃并非不可想象；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>8. </SPAN>凤凰财经：内地房地产企业现金流锐减，小企业或现大批倒闭。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>持仓分析<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="24" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="24" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on">3<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月24</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>前</SPAN></st1:chsdate>20</SPAN>名多头主力持单（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>17477</SPAN>手，空头主力持仓（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>222586</SPAN>手，净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>5109</SPAN>手，净空持仓减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>163</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>因外围环境好转，国内紧缩货币预期担忧舒缓，但期指上攻突破乏力，下跌支撑较强，窄幅振荡。因此，多空主力均采取减仓策略。结合基本面来看，期指或将延续盘整格局。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>主力合约<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>周四报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3267.0</SPAN>点，预计周五<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>合约运行区间在：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300-3240</SPAN>点之间。如上方冲破<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3300 </SPAN>点可以小多，止损下设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点；如下方破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3240</SPAN>点，可以介入空单，止损上设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点。如在区间内窄幅震荡，可以高空低多的策略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>合约名称<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>HS 300 3300 3280 3220 3190<BR>IF1104 3320 3300 3240 3200<BR>IF1105 3340 3320 3250 3220<BR>IF1106 3360 3340 3270 3240<BR>IF1109 3400 3380 3310 3280<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">『免责声明：期市瞬息万变，盘中突发消息也将影响走势突变，投资人应盘
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