<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">金属产品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铅 锌<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜，伦锌大幅上涨，期价盘中一度突破<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2417</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.19%</SPAN>；伦铅继续上涨，成交量有所放大，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2727</SPAN>美元，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.86%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>铅期货今日上市交易<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月预售屋销量降<SPAN lang=EN-US>16.9%<BR><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17900-18000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上交易日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>350</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>745-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>645</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17850-17950</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>350</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>795-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>695</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>铅报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17500-17700</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上交易日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>库存方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>735750</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>275</SPAN>吨，上海交易所锌期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>308630</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1247</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铅库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>286900</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>观点总结：基本面上，铅锌均处于供求过剩的局面。资金面上，沪锌主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单增加至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.5</SPAN>万手以上。整体来看，锌净空单数量仍处于高位，资金操作偏空。技术显示，沪锌走势渐强，关注缺口阻力位能否突破；伦铅上方压力较大。操作建议：沪锌暂且观望。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>Comex</SPAN>金<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月开盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>1428.8</SPAN>，最高触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>1440.3</SPAN>，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>1426.2</SPAN>，收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>1427.6</SPAN>，成交<SPAN lang=EN-US>119990</SPAN>手，持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>208067</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>．葡萄牙议会未通过政府紧缩措施，且欧盟表示不会在本周的峰会上决定如何扩大欧元区金融稳定基金<SPAN lang=EN-US>(EFSF)</SPAN>的规模。市场预计峰会成果将与预期相差甚远，欧债担忧升温<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2</SPAN>．<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>美国商务部<SPAN lang=EN-US>(Commerce Department)</SPAN>公布的数据显示，经季节性因素调整后，美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月份新屋销售创纪录新低，较上月下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>16.9%</SPAN>，折合成年率为<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>万户，预期<SPAN lang=EN-US>29</SPAN>万户。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> <st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="23" Month="3" Year="2011">3<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月23</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>沪金1106</SPAN></SPAN>合约早盘小幅低开<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.52</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克至<SPAN lang=EN-US>302.00</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，日内最高<SPAN lang=EN-US>302.75</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>301.94</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，收盘下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.03%</SPAN>，成交量<SPAN lang=EN-US>8702</SPAN>手，较上一个交易日有所减少，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>44084</SPAN>手，减仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>1036</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>ETF</SPAN>持仓方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>全球最大的黄金上市交易基金<SPAN lang=EN-US>(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust</SPAN>表示，其黄金持仓量截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="23" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>23</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1,214.87</SPAN>吨，与上一个交易日持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>本周三在地缘政治冲突及欧债危机担忧重燃的共同作用下，黄金高位窄幅整理后再次上行，目前价格仍有望上探<SPAN lang=EN-US>1445</SPAN>附近记录高点，但短线技术超买严重，期金注意切勿追高，短线仍可依托<SPAN lang=EN-US>300-301</SPAN>附近买入，中线<SPAN lang=EN-US>295</SPAN>附近已进场多单可继续耐心持有，中线目标<SPAN lang=EN-US>310 330</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铜<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：隔夜伦铜触及技术性阻力位之后引发大幅反弹，铜价尾盘涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.8%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9745</SPAN>，为两周以来的最高点，目前铜价回到均线组之上运行，摆脱了之前震荡走势。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>。美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月新屋销售环比骤降<SPAN lang=EN-US>16.9%</SPAN>，年率为记录低点的<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>万户，预期为<SPAN lang=EN-US>29</SPAN>万户。该数据一度打压市场人气并扶助贵金属走高。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>。贵金属作为避险工具而大放异彩，因欧元区债务忧虑重现，而油价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>106</SPAN>美元附近，利比亚战争及日本核危机都令市场参与者感到忧虑。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：上海金属网铜现货报价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>71350-71600</SPAN>，较昨日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>300</SPAN>元，现货较期货升水<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>，较昨日升水<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>小幅缩窄；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.55-7.56</SPAN>，比价小幅回升，表明沪铜近两日主要以小幅跟涨伦铜为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存：<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="23" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>23</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>伦铜库存减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>200</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>434150</SPAN>，目前注销仓单占库存比处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.58%</SPAN>，较昨日大幅上涨，但仍处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>之下，预计后期库存有望继续增加。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日伦铜在多次触及技术性阻力位之后，反弹一触即发。市场人气的转好使得多头做多积极性提高，铜价基本忽略了晚间公布的<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月疲软的美国新屋销售数据。此次铜价在经过前期纠结的震荡走势之后出现大幅上涨，这样的涨势有望延续。今日沪铜<SPAN lang=EN-US>1106</SPAN>合约料开至<SPAN lang=EN-US>73500</SPAN>附近，若企稳之后，下一目标看至<SPAN lang=EN-US>75000.<BR><BR><BR>4 </SPAN>钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="8" UnitName="mm">8mm</st1:chmetcnv> Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4550</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="20" UnitName="mm"><SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4850</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>(1) </SPAN>今年中国海外权益铁矿供应预料达<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.1</SPAN>亿吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) </SPAN>发改委：取消和降低部分住房交易手续费；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) </SPAN>淡水河谷放弃在华建分销中心，铁矿石供应拐点隐现；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(4) </SPAN>印度粉矿<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="23" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>23</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>指数参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>171</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>3296</SPAN>吨，减持<SPAN lang=EN-US>600</SPAN>。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>小结：周三<SPAN lang=EN-US>RB1110</SPAN>合约在股市及有色的带动下震荡走高，期价向上突破<SPAN lang=EN-US>4700</SPAN>关口压力。基本面上因市场预计日本灾后重建可能耗资巨大，铝、钢铁和铜等大宗商品生产企业有望从中受益，促使隔夜外围商品普遍上涨，预计今日有望继续带动国内商品反弹。操作上建议，盘中回调多单跟进，止损<SPAN lang=EN-US>4680</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>1 <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 23</SPAN>日<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>原糖期货收跌，因出现轻微的获利了结，近月合约成交低迷，<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月原糖期货收跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.59</SPAN>美分，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.2%</SPAN>，报每磅<SPAN lang=EN-US>26.57</SPAN>美分。初步数据显示，周三原糖期货成交量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>41,053</SPAN>手，为自<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="28" Month="12" Year="2010"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>28</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>以来的最低点。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、全球：<SPAN lang=EN-US>Licht</SPAN>把<SPAN lang=EN-US>10/11</SPAN>制糖年供应过剩量下调至<SPAN lang=EN-US>130</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> 2</SPAN>、印度拟征收<SPAN lang=EN-US>15%</SPAN>的食糖进口税<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>国内现货小幅上调，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7230</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1386</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1294</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内主产区天气情况：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>今天白天到晚上，全区阴天大部有小雨，其中桂林、柳州、河池等市部分地区有中雨。南宁市<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>今天白天到晚上，阴天有小雨，东北风<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-2</SPAN>级，最高气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="13" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>13℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>，最低气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="9" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>9℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约重新站上<SPAN lang=EN-US>7000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨关口，受股市及周边商品期价反弹的多头人气带动，延续反弹行情，重新进入前期高位震荡区间。操作上，中线以大区间震荡操作为宜。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">谷物：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、高盛集团下调了玉米期货价格预估，并表示今年玉米将在美国春播竞争中胜出。不过高盛集团还警告说，即使最温和的天气问题也可能推动玉米价格涨至九美元大关。<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、据联合<SPAN lang=EN-US>FAO</SPAN>表示，由于大米供应提高，因而大米价格可能下跌。本年度全球大米期末库存可能增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.6%</SPAN>，达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.37</SPAN>亿吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>、国储计划销售小麦<SPAN lang=EN-US>115447</SPAN>吨，实际成交<SPAN lang=EN-US>83858</SPAN>吨，成交率<SPAN lang=EN-US>72.64%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米期货小幅收高，在修复了前期的跌幅后，期价继续上行的动力不强，获利了结压力使得期价在尾盘受挫。<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米：<SPAN lang=EN-US>681</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US> -5.75<BR></SPAN>现货价格：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、山东德州小麦市场价格坚挺。面粉厂收购价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2140-2160</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，粮库装车价格<SPAN lang=EN-US>2180</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，贸易商收购价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2120</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨以上，价格较前几日持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2</SPAN>、华南地区早籼稻价格稳定在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2220</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，价格上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>江西九江地区价格涨到了在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2160</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，安徽合肥稳定在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2120</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3</SPAN>、国内玉米现货价格整体平稳，局部小幅波动，大连港内玉米平舱价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2170-2180</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，广东港口玉米报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2270-2285</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，山东青岛饲料厂玉米进厂价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2140-2180</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均与昨日基本持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>操作提示：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>玉米：玉米的走势良好，伴随着持仓和成交量的增长增强。而远期<SPAN lang=EN-US>1201</SPAN>合约受到资金关注，后期有望走出强势行情。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>郑麦：期价表收涨，但涨幅要小于玉米，品种之间走势轮动，但经历了昨天的强势后，期价仍是一个短期偏多的态势，近期仍需关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>2900</SPAN>一线的得失。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>早籼稻：期价冲小幅收涨，走势较为谨慎，但良好的基本面未变，近期仍可持有偏多思路<SPAN lang=EN-US>.<BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期棉出现回落，市场未能扩大涨幅促使市场人士结清棉花头寸。指标<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE-5</SPAN>月期棉合约下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.09</SPAN>美分，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>201.87</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、据海关数据显示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月，我国出口棉布<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="1" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="900000000" UnitName="米">09<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>亿米</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US>，环<SPAN lang=EN-US>比下降56.05%</SPAN></SPAN></SPAN>，同比减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>32.68%</SPAN>；进口棉布<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.42</SPAN>亿米，环比下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>26.60%</SPAN>，同比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.56%</SPAN>；净出口量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.67</SPAN>亿米，环比下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>58.67%</SPAN>，同比减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>36.02%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 2</SPAN>、负责农作物预测的政府代理机构<SPAN lang=EN-US>CONAB</SPAN>预测，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010/2011</SPAN>年棉花产量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>195</SPAN>万吨，比去年同期增长超过<SPAN lang=EN-US>60%</SPAN>。棉花种植面积预计为<SPAN lang=EN-US>130</SPAN>万公顷，比<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年增长了<SPAN lang=EN-US>55%</SPAN>。如果天气条件保持良好，平均单产可能超过<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.5</SPAN>吨。但是，今年的种植面积对于田间管理和物流方面将是一个冲击。将近<SPAN lang=EN-US>200</SPAN>万吨的产量在收获的高峰季节对于机采和轧花的能力将是一个挑战。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>30570</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，与上一交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>547</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>13</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>321</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。截止<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="22" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>22</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，全国棉花交易市场业务棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>288346</SPAN>吨，较上一日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>778</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>主产区天气：未来三天，青藏高原东部、甘肃南部、内蒙古东北部、黑龙江西北部等地有小到中雪（雨）或雨夹雪；西南地区东部和北部、江南中西部、华南中西部等地有小到中雨或阵雨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：美棉冲高回落，受累于投资者获利了结，市场关注下周<SPAN lang=EN-US>USDA</SPAN>将公布的作物种植预估报告；国内纺织企业因面临纱线的库存压力，主要以销售库存产品为主，采购积极性不高。现货价格小幅下跌，市场观望情绪浓厚。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约大幅收涨，期价受<SPAN lang=EN-US>30000</SPAN>关口支撑震荡走高，短线测试<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>周均线压力，中期维持高位震荡走势。操作上，短多冲高适当减仓。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">大豆豆粕：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、巴西目前贸易清淡，农户对后期上涨的预期依旧较强。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、韩国采购<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>万吨非转基因大豆，目前韩国大豆进口主要来自中国。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、中国商务部上修<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月份大豆进口量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>390</SPAN>万吨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月份为<SPAN lang=EN-US>342</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>CBOT</SPAN>大豆期货收跌，期价在前期快速反弹后，获利盘了结的压力较大。<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>大豆：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1351.25</SPAN>美分，<SPAN lang=EN-US> -14.25<BR></SPAN>外盘继续收高，但涨幅受限，在期价修正了前期的跌幅收，目前市场上没有根本性的消息来影响期价走势，近期市场或呈现一个调整态势。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货价格：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、核算的进口大豆成本比较平稳，<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月船期的巴西大豆价格今天核算在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。黑龙江佳木斯国产大豆的收购价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3820</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，部分品质好的大豆在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3860</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨以上。目前港口的分销价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4250</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>豆粕现货价格今早报价走低各地价格下跌了<SPAN lang=EN-US>20-30</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，成交不佳依旧压制价格，山东沿海地区价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3120</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，江苏连云港地区价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3210</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，广西防城港地区价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3220</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，实际成交价格可议。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>盘面分析：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>今天盘面走势较强，期价开盘后一路走高，而豆粕表现更强，期价走出了久违的长阳线，期价以接近当日最高价收盘，涨幅达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.5%</SPAN>左右。但是，伴随着豆粕成交大幅增加，持仓仍是大幅下滑的态势，给后续继续上涨的持续蒙上阴影。大豆稳步走强，资金明显偏向远月，这主要是两个年度不同的基本面所致，其中的套利机会值得关注。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>操作建议：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>期价大幅反弹，有力的提振了市场的多头情绪，但是期价欲有所表现，比先突破目前的震荡区间，但目前的基本面没有根本性的利多消息出现，笔者认为近期仍需持有谨慎态度。但在操作上，目前继续持有前期的多单为主，保持轻仓，前期加仓的短线多单可选择平仓离场。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">油脂：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：缺乏新消息提振，<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>豆油继续震荡回落，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>55.52</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅；<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>大豆和豆油期货下跌影响，<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>加拿大油菜籽期货主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月合约下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.40</SPAN>加元，报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>573.00</SPAN>加元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>公吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息：国际方面，油世界表示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月到<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月期<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>间，全球豆油出口量比上年同期大幅增长了<SPAN lang=EN-US>34%</SPAN>，创下了三年来<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>的最高水平<SPAN lang=EN-US>510</SPAN>万吨。国内方面，商务部最新数据显示，本期进<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>口豆油实际到港<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.00</SPAN>万吨，本月预报到港<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.00</SPAN>万吨，下月预报<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>到港<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.04</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货：昨日油脂现货报价基本稳定，沿海四级豆油约为<SPAN lang=EN-US> 9950-10100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；港口棕榈油报价集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9200-9700</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；国<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>内四级菜油出厂价格处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>10000-10300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单：豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>7125</SPAN>张；棕榈油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>张；均无变化。菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US> 13129</SPAN>张；较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>600</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总在经过调整之后，国内油脂选择继续向上，站上<SPAN lang=EN-US>20 </SPAN>日均线，豆油表现最强，投资者可根据外盘表现操作。建议多<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>单依托<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日均线持有，考虑到缺乏更多利多提振，对于本轮反弹<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>，保持谨慎态度，关注月底美国种植意向报告。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">连塑<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、壳牌新加坡乙烯工厂面临运营问题<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、雄厚的工业基础<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>东北塑料市场前景广阔<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3</SPAN>、甘肃造出可完全生物降解塑料<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格走势平稳。扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>11350</SPAN>，与上一交易日持平。东北亚报<SPAN lang=EN-US>13430——1342</SPAN>美元，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>美元。东南亚报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1255—1257</SPAN>美元，无涨跌。市场交投谨慎。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3631</SPAN>张，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1293</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日连塑缩量反弹，十日均线已被成功收复。基本面上，利比亚格局持续紧张，且有向他国蔓延之势对原油形成一定的支撑、亚洲乙烯止跌回升，<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格坚挺其产生一定的支撑。且经连续回落，短期也有一定的反弹要求。后市若成成功突破<SPAN lang=EN-US>11630</SPAN>一线压力，反弹的空间将被打，操作上，建议投资者手中多单可谨慎持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>2 PVC<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、国务院调查摸底楼市调控成效<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>房价拐点预期增强<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、天业烧碱销售形势良好<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>日均销量同比增加近<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>倍<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货市场走势不一。<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFR</SPAN>远东报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1132</SPAN>美元，华东乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8200</SPAN>元，均与昨日持平。华东电石法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7800</SPAN>元，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元。西北电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300</SPAN>元，华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3850</SPAN>元，无涨跌。市场成交一般。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>张，与昨日持平<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>震荡走高，短期的反弹行情已基本确立。基本面上，利比亚格局持续紧张，且有向他国蔓延之势对原油形成一定的支撑、亚洲现货走势坚挺对其产生一定的支撑。经连续回落，短期也有一定的反弹要求，建议投资者逢回落可适当建多，上方压力位<SPAN lang=EN-US>8200——8220</SPAN>一线。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">沪胶<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>TOCOM</SPAN>橡胶期货<SPAN lang=EN-US>23</SPAN>日基本持平，盘中一度上涨，因低产季节东南亚橡胶供应收紧，而且中国<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>橡胶库存下降。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：印尼橡胶协会<SPAN lang=EN-US>(Gapkindo)</SPAN>周二表示，作为全球第二大橡胶生产国，印尼到<SPAN lang=EN-US>2015</SPAN>年其橡胶产量将<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>提高逾<SPAN lang=EN-US>20%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>360</SPAN>万吨，以满足日益增长的国内及中国需求。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：目前云南标一胶市场参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>37600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，海南标一胶参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>37500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>越南<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="3" UnitName="l"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3L</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>胶参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>40000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右（<SPAN lang=EN-US>17%</SPAN>票），泰国烟片在<SPAN lang=EN-US>42500-43000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右（<SPAN lang=EN-US>17%</SPAN>票）；部分贸易商<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>低价出货意愿不强，市场成交气氛一般。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>亚洲各橡胶主产区天气预报如下：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>曼谷<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="26" UnitName="℃">26℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="24" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>24℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>越南<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>河内<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>中雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="17" UnitName="℃">17℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="14" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>14℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>胡志明市<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="30" UnitName="℃">30℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="24" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>24℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>马来西亚<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>吉隆坡<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="32" UnitName="℃">32℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="24" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>24℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>印尼<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雅加达<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="32" UnitName="℃">32℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="26" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>26℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>20535</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1020</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：目前国际胶价在泰国政府影响下大幅度反弹，加上当前国内外橡胶库存均表现偏低，这都给<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>期胶一定的支撑，但近期金融市场的焦点已转移至利比亚的军事格局上，国际局势存在着变数，市场心态不<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>稳。从盘面来看，昨日沪胶<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约表现偏强，但上方<SPAN lang=EN-US>37000-37500</SPAN>区间存在压力，短期料难出现趋势性大<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨，建议投资者采取日内操作。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：纽约商业交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>(NYMEX)</SPAN>原油期货结算价<SPAN lang=EN-US>23</SPAN>日创下两年半来的最高水平，因多国部队继续对<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>利比亚进行空袭且美国公布汽油库存大幅下降。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、利比亚可能在较长时间内退出石油市场－巴克莱；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、日本将再释放其原油储备。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>23</SPAN>日黄埔到岸价，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>655.46</SPAN>美元，到岸贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>14-15</SPAN>美元，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>380 </SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>641.26</SPAN>美元。华南混调油最新交易估价：船用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>交易过驳价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4800-4810</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；库提价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4810- 4820</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，国产锅炉用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>交易价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4520-4570</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>506900</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>2400</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：目前利比亚军事形势提振了国际原油价格，中东局势的发展使得市场对日本核危机的关注有<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>所下降，但日本灾后重建也加大了原油需求的预期，沪油因此保持坚挺。华南燃料油现货市场多数商家报价<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>继续持稳，但也有商家对后市持看涨心态，价格小幅继续上推，非标油受成品油调价窗口已打开后市看好。目前沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约上有压力下有支撑，预计短期运行于<SPAN lang=EN-US>4700-4800</SPAN>，建议区间操作。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>5 PTA<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油收涨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>EIA</SPAN>数据显示美国上周汽油库存大幅减少，<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 4</SPAN>月原油期货上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.78</SPAN>美元，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>105.75</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、海关统计数据显示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>02</SPAN>月进口<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA332,952</SPAN>吨，进口金额<SPAN lang=EN-US>46,010.93</SPAN>万美元，均价<SPAN lang=EN-US>1,382</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。进口量较上月减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>28.62% </SPAN>，较去年同期减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>10.49%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、海关数据显示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>02</SPAN>月出口短纤<SPAN lang=EN-US>45,183</SPAN>吨，出口金额<SPAN lang=EN-US>7,365.75</SPAN>万美元，均价<SPAN lang=EN-US>1,630</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。出口量较上月减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>48.26% </SPAN>，较去年同期增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>63.18%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货价格：华东<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场气氛坚挺，现货报盘意向<SPAN lang=EN-US>11700</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，工厂观望居多，市场主流商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近展开，实盘稀少。亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场气氛坚挺，台货报盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1540-1545</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持货商低价惜售，主流商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1530-1535</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，实际成交稀少。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>8927</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>600</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：北非及中东紧张局势继续推高国际原油价格；<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>价格小幅回落但继续维持高位，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>工厂检修计划增多，短期成本推动<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>震荡攀升；<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场气氛回升，买方仍观望居多，拿货心态谨慎。江浙涤丝市场产销一般，部分勉强做平，下游织造厂家小幅补仓；聚酯切片维持震荡，市场气氛一般。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA1109</SPAN>合约小幅收涨，主力合约换月，期价受下方均线支撑震荡上行，短线测试<SPAN lang=EN-US>11800-12000</SPAN>压力，延续高位震荡走势。操作上，回落短多交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">股指期货</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">瑞达期货：市场情绪平稳，多头行情或延续<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>道琼斯<SPAN lang=EN-US> 12086.02 67.39 0.56%<BR></SPAN>纳斯达克<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2698.30 14.43 0.54%<BR></SPAN>标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500 1297.54 3.77 0.29%<BR></SPAN>富时<SPAN lang=EN-US>100 5795.88 33.17 0.58%<BR></SPAN>德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX 6804.45 23.48 0.35%<BR></SPAN>法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAC40 3913.73 21.02 0.54%<BR>C0MEX</SPAN>黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1438.0 10.4 0.73%<BR>NYMEX</SPAN>原油<SPAN lang=EN-US> 105.75 0.78 0.74%<BR></SPAN>美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 75.848 0.258 0.34%<BR></SPAN>小结：周三美股收高，原材料板块领涨。市场预计日本灾后重建工作将耗费巨资、采矿业与工业企业将得到更多业务，使原材料板块大幅上涨。欧洲股市周三大多走高，西班牙零售商<SPAN lang=EN-US>Inditex</SPAN>在公布优良业绩后大涨，葡萄牙与希腊股市逆市下行。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1. </SPAN>央行副行长易纲：考虑所有政策工具抗通胀，并非紧缩银根，目前利率水平很舒服；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2. </SPAN>国务院发文着力抓落实，楼市调控八部委分工；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3. </SPAN>发改委：<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月起降低住房交易手续费；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>4. </SPAN>一线房企调低<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年增长预期，积极扩张商业地产；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>5</SPAN>．数据显示：美国新屋量价跌至<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>年新低，楼市复苏艰难；新屋销售<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>万幢，按月环比下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>16.9%<BR>6. </SPAN>葡萄牙陷入财政内讧，债市、汇市下跌；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>7. </SPAN>福岛核电站冷却系统有望恢复工作；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>8. </SPAN>中东、北非（突尼、埃及利、比亚、也门、巴林和叙利亚）暴乱蔓延，油价上扬；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>9. </SPAN>世行认为地震对日本及东亚经济影响有限，上修东亚经济增长率至<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.2%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>持仓分析<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="23" Month="3" Year="2011"><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="23" Month="3" Year="2011">3<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月23</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>前</SPAN></st1:chsdate>20</SPAN>名多头主力持单（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>18634</SPAN>手，空头主力持仓（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>23849</SPAN>手，净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>5215</SPAN>手，净空持仓减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>253</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>因外围环境好转，国内紧缩货币预期担忧舒缓，期指经过多日调整后，强力反弹。在持仓方面，总体上，昨日多空主力继续增仓对垒。但多头增持稍稍显著，其中，多头主力日内增仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>646</SPAN>手。结合基本面来看，多头上攻、反弹动能增强，期指有望延续昨日走势。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>主力合约<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>周三报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3269.2</SPAN>点，预计周四<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>合约运行区间在：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300-3230</SPAN>点之间。如上方冲破<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3300 </SPAN>点可以小多，止损下设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点；如下方破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3230</SPAN>点，可以介入空单，止损上设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点。如在区间内窄幅震荡，可以高空低多的策略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>合约名称<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>HS 300 3350 3290 3220 3190<BR>IF1104 3360 3300 3230 3200<BR>IF1105 3380 3320 3250 3220<BR>IF1106 3400 3340 3270 3240<BR>IF1109 3440 3380 3310 3280<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">『免责声明：期市瞬息万变，盘中突发消息也将影响走势突变，投资人应盘
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