<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">金属产品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>本周二欧洲央行加息预期及低位反弹的美元令近期涨幅较大的黄金高位承压整理。<SPAN lang=EN-US>Comex</SPAN>金<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月开盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>1427.3</SPAN>，最高触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>1432.3</SPAN>，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>1420.9</SPAN>，收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>1427.6</SPAN>，成交<SPAN lang=EN-US>109022</SPAN>手，持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>220499</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>．欧洲央行<SPAN lang=EN-US>(ECB)</SPAN>执委会委员斯塔克表示，自欧洲央行<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="3" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>的会议之后，尽管日本核危机使得不确定性增大，但对欧元区通胀前景的预期至今未变，四月仍有可能升息。欧洲央行升息预期使黄金前景蒙上一层阴影。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2</SPAN>．美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月里奇蒙德联储制造业指数为<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>预期中值为<SPAN lang=EN-US>24 </SPAN>预期下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.0<BR></SPAN>期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> <st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="22" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on">3<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月22</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>沪金1106</SPAN></SPAN>合约早盘小幅低开<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.17</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克至<SPAN lang=EN-US>302.90</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，日内最高<SPAN lang=EN-US>303.08</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>302.00</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，收盘下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.78</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.26%</SPAN>，成交量<SPAN lang=EN-US>11292</SPAN>手，较上一个交易日有所减少，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>45120</SPAN>手，减仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>602</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>ETF</SPAN>持仓方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>全球最大的黄金上市交易基金<SPAN lang=EN-US>(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust</SPAN>表示，其黄金持仓量截至<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="22" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>22</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1,214.87</SPAN>吨，较上一个交易日小幅减仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.91</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>本周二欧洲央行的加息预期令通胀情绪有所降温，超跌反弹的美元也一定程度上令金价高位承压，短期价格恐将出现高位修正整理，注意下方跳空缺口回补。操作上，短线建议上海期金继续依托<SPAN lang=EN-US>300-301</SPAN>附近支撑逢低介入，中线<SPAN lang=EN-US>295</SPAN>附近已进场多单可继续耐心持有，中线目标<SPAN lang=EN-US>310 330</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">锌、铝 <SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜，伦锌强势回升，期价收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日均线之上，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2320</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.62%</SPAN>；伦铅小幅上涨，成交量明显萎缩，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2677</SPAN>美元，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.21%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>上期所多形式推广铅期货<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2.G7</SPAN>联合干预规模约<SPAN lang=EN-US>5300</SPAN>亿日元<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17550-17650</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持平，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>425-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>325</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17500-17600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，保持不变，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>475-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>375</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>铅报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17400-17600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，与上交易日持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>库存方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>736025</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>125</SPAN>吨，上海交易所锌期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>307383</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>300</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铅库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>287050</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>600</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>观点总结：基本面上，铅锌均处于供求过剩的局面。资金面上，沪锌主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单增加至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.5</SPAN>万手以上。整体来看，锌净空单数量仍处于高位，资金操作偏空。技术显示，沪锌弱势震荡未改；伦铅上方压力较大。操作建议：沪锌空单持有，止损位<SPAN lang=EN-US>18500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铜 <SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：隔夜伦铜震荡走高，波动区间为<SPAN lang=EN-US>9503-9396</SPAN>，尾盘涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.58%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9480</SPAN>，铜价上方面临着<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日和<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线的压制，近几日铜价继续保持减仓态势，不利于反弹的延续。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>。国际铜业研究组织周二在其最新的月度报告中称，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年全球精炼铜供应缺口将在<SPAN lang=EN-US>30.5</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>09</SPAN>年为供应过剩<SPAN lang=EN-US>17.5</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>。油价日内受利比亚战乱形势推动上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.76%</SPAN>，触及日本地震以来的最高水平<SPAN lang=EN-US>105.14</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶。油价再次强劲上扬可能会在一定程度上打压全球股市，进而影响风险货币的走势。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：上海金属网铜现货报价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>70900-71300</SPAN>，较昨日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>元，现货较期货升水<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>，昨日表现为贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.54-7.55</SPAN>，比价几无变化，表明沪铜难以带动伦铜走出震荡行情，亦选择窄幅波动。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存：<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="22" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>22</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>伦铜库存增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>3850</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>434350</SPAN>，目前注销仓单占库存比处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.47%</SPAN>，继续下滑且仍处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>之下，预计后期库存有望继续增加。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日内外铜价均演绎震荡走高行情，但目前铜价仍处于均线交织处运行，表明短期铜价还未摆脱震荡格局。两市持仓量在近来表现并不好，其中伦铜持仓已连续三天减仓，共减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>8430.</SPAN>表明投资者的做多积极性不高。国际上昨日油价因利比亚紧张的局势继续上涨且创下了自日本地震以来的高点，市场风险情绪依旧不容乐观。另外近来伦铜库存持续增加，从注销仓单的表现来看，后期有望延续增加态势，因此目前铜市处于内忧外患的局面，短期料难以上涨，今日沪铜<SPAN lang=EN-US>1106</SPAN>合约料开至<SPAN lang=EN-US>71500</SPAN>附近，有望于<SPAN lang=EN-US>70800-72000</SPAN>区间震荡。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="mm" SourceValue="8" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0">8mm</st1:chmetcnv> Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4570</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="mm" SourceValue="20" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4870</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>(1) </SPAN>力拓称上月飓风将影响第一季铁矿石产量；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) </SPAN>国家煤炭应急储备方案获批，首批计划<SPAN lang=EN-US>500</SPAN>万吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) </SPAN>国务院调查摸底楼市调控成效，房价“拐点”预期增强；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(4) </SPAN>印度粉矿<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="22" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>22</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>指数参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>171</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>3896</SPAN>吨，增持<SPAN lang=EN-US>897</SPAN>。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">小结：周二<SPAN lang=EN-US>RB1110</SPAN>合约处<SPAN lang=EN-US>4700</SPAN>下方窄幅整理。利比亚局势仍让投资者感到不安，隔夜原油继续上涨。而国内钢市销售仍显清淡，但进口铁矿石价格近期相对稳定，市场杀跌力度减缓。操作上建议，低位震荡思维，短线<SPAN lang=EN-US>4600-4750</SPAN>区间交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>1 <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">谷物：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、中储粮否认了购买美国玉米的传言。<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、今年<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月份以来，国内面粉价格出现罕见的集中上涨走势。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、据行业人士称，日本的农产品生产及出口受到核泄漏的威胁，其中就包括大米生产和出口。<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>、<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="22" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>22</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>竞价销售国家临时存储移库<SPAN lang=EN-US>(</SPAN>含中央储备<SPAN lang=EN-US>)</SPAN>玉米<SPAN lang=EN-US>115.54</SPAN>万吨，实际成交<SPAN lang=EN-US>11.9</SPAN>万吨，成交均价<SPAN lang=EN-US>1893</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US> CBOT</SPAN>玉米继续小幅走高，但早盘由于中储粮否认购买美玉米带来利空，但近期的反弹势头延续，最终微幅收高。<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米：<SPAN lang=EN-US>686.75</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US> +0.25</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>现货价格：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、山东德州小麦市场价格企稳为主。面粉厂收购价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2140-2160</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，粮库装车价格<SPAN lang=EN-US>2180</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，价格较前几日持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2</SPAN>、华南地区早籼稻价格稳定在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2220</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，价格上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>江西九江地区价格涨到了在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2160</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，安徽合肥稳定在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2120</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3</SPAN>、国内部分地区玉米现货价格继续上涨，大连港内玉米平舱价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2170-2200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，广东港口玉米报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2290-2300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>操作提示：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>玉米：今天玉米的走势偏弱，但总体呈现窄幅震荡的态势，市场拉高期价的动力不足，虽然期价仍运行在长期上涨趋势中，但短期或需要积聚动力。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>郑麦：期价表现强势，今天创出近一个月来的高点，关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>2900</SPAN>一线的得失，预计期间仍将是震荡走高的态势。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>早籼稻：期价冲高回落，走势较为谨慎，但良好的基本面未变，近期仍可持有偏多思路<SPAN lang=EN-US>.<BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期棉收于涨停，但市场交投清淡。指标<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE-5</SPAN>月期棉合约上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>美分，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>205.96</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、中国海关<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月进出数据显示，中国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月棉花进口量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>184,216</SPAN>吨，同比减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>16.64%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月累计进口量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>575,608</SPAN>吨，同比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>10.65%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 2</SPAN>、美国农业部料预估<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010/11</SPAN>年度美国棉花产量增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.6%</SPAN>，但极端天气可能阻碍产量上升。美国国家海洋和大气管理局（<SPAN lang=EN-US>NOAA</SPAN>）预计，德克萨斯州和乔治亚州大部分地区干旱天气持续恶化，不利于棉花作物。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 3</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>21</SPAN>日进口棉中国主港报价继续上涨，大部分品种上涨了<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>美分，中亚棉上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.5</SPAN>美分，美国皮马棉上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.5</SPAN>美分。棉商表示，中国的棉花进口需求依然不错，但装期多在今年年底到明年年初，即期和近期的需求很少。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>30576</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，与上一交易日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>534</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>24</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>335</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。截止<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="22" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>22</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，全国棉花交易市场业务棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>288346</SPAN>吨，较上一日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>778</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>主产区天气：未来三天，西北地区东南部、黄淮南部及其以南大部地区等地将有小到中雨，其中，安徽南部、福建西北部、云南西北部等地的部分地区有大雨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：美棉收于涨停，市场关注下周<SPAN lang=EN-US>USDA</SPAN>将公布的作物种植预估报告；国内央行再度上调存款准备金率压制棉市，纺织企业因面临纱线的库存压力，采购积极性不高。国内现货价格小幅上涨，纺织企业主要以销售库存产品为主，补库需求比较平淡，且采购保持谨慎。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约小幅收跌，期价围绕<SPAN lang=EN-US>30000</SPAN>关口展开整理，短线面临<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>周均线压力，中期维持高位震荡走势。操作上，短多交易，冲高适当减仓。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">大豆豆粕：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="22" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>22</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>拍卖<SPAN lang=EN-US>2008</SPAN>年跨省移库大豆<SPAN lang=EN-US>29.95</SPAN>万吨，全部流拍。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、近期巴西大豆产区的降雨引发关注，目前巴西正处于收割的高峰时间，但在经历了短暂的晴天后，本周重新重新的降雨将阻碍大豆的收割，并造成减产。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、高盛预估美豆播种面积为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7560</SPAN>万英亩，而美农业部的预估为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7800</SPAN>万英亩。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>CBOT</SPAN>大豆期货小幅收高，大豆与玉米的播种面积之争支持了期价，促使大豆自早盘的跌势中回升。<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>大豆：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1365.5</SPAN>美分，<SPAN lang=EN-US> +2.5<BR></SPAN>现货价格：核算的进口大豆成本继续回升，<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月船期的巴西大豆价格今天核算在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。黑龙江佳木斯国产大豆的收购价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3800-3820</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>豆粕现货价格平稳，油厂稳定价格，但市场的交投持续清淡，山东沿海地区价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3140</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，江苏连云港地区价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3210</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，实际成交价格可议。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>盘面分析：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>今天盘面走势小幅震荡，市场情绪比较谨慎，在经历了前期的反弹之后，市场对目前的价位暂时认可，多空双方交投兴趣不大，市场成交大幅下滑。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>操作建议：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>期价继续小幅反弹，但动力略有不足，从技术图形看，大豆期价重新回到宽幅震荡区间的中间位置，而豆粕技术面依旧较为偏弱。建议目前的操作以继续持有前期的多单为主，保持轻仓，前期加仓的短线多单可选择平仓离场。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> ICE</SPAN>原糖期价周二下挫，受累于印度批准<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>万吨糖出口的消息，同时阿拉比卡咖啡期货从近期的<SPAN lang=EN-US>34</SPAN>年高位进一步下滑，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>并可能在未来继续下跌。最终<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月原糖期货下滑<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.32</SPAN>美分，报每磅<SPAN lang=EN-US>27.16</SPAN>美分。伦敦<SPAN lang=EN-US>LIFFE5</SPAN>月白糖期货下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>5.9 </SPAN>美元，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>每吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>700.40</SPAN>美元。全球第二大糖生产国印度批准<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>万吨糖出口，暗示该国的糖产量人气得到改善，可能缓和全球糖价。此<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>外，泰国多于预期的糖产量也令亚洲糖升水承压，吸引了投资者卖盘。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、泰国新制糖年已产糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>757.3</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> 2</SPAN>、中国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月进口食糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.9</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>同比增<SPAN lang=EN-US>220% <BR></SPAN>国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>国内现货小幅下调，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7150</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1454</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1320</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内主产区天气情况：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>今晚到明天，全区阴天间多云，大部有小雨。<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>南宁市：今晚到明天，阴天转小雨，东北风<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级，最低气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="10" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>10℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>，最高<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="14" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>14℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约继续围绕<SPAN lang=EN-US>7000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨关口震荡整理，上方压力依旧沉重，<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>分钟<SPAN lang=EN-US>K</SPAN>线遭遇<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>均线压制，关注短期期价在该<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>处的表现。操作上，中线逢高抛空。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">油脂：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：缺乏新消息提振，<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>豆油继续震荡回落，小幅收<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>55.86</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅；市场担忧马来西亚棕榈油出口的下降将增加库存量，<SPAN lang=EN-US>BMD</SPAN>棕榈油期货跌至几乎<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>个月来最低点，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>月合约下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>112</SPAN>令吉收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3308</SPAN>令吉<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；外围油菜籽市场下挫及获利了结影响，<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>加拿大油菜籽期货主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月合约上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.60</SPAN>加元，报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>577.40</SPAN>加元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>公吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息：国际方面，船运调查机构<SPAN lang=EN-US>ITS</SPAN>数据显示，马来西亚<SPAN lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-20</SPAN>日棕榈油出口预计较上个月同期的<SPAN lang=EN-US>825180</SPAN>吨减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>12.8%</SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>719302</SPAN>吨。国内方面，海关数据显示，中国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月油菜籽进口量<SPAN lang=EN-US> 34,160</SPAN>吨，同比减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>70.88%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-2</SPAN>月累计进口<SPAN lang=EN-US>124404</SPAN>吨，同比减<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>少<SPAN lang=EN-US>47.75%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货：昨日油脂现货报价稳中有降，部分地区降幅在<SPAN lang=EN-US>20-80 </SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。沿海四级豆油约为<SPAN lang=EN-US>9950-10100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；港口棕榈油<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>报价集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9200-9700</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；国内四级菜油出厂价格处于<SPAN lang=EN-US> 10000-10300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单：豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>7125</SPAN>张；菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>12944</SPAN>张；均无变化。棕榈油<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>张；较上一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1100</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：随着国内又一次上调存款准备金及利比亚纷争<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>的再度升级，国内油脂连日的反弹态势开始减弱，就目前来看<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线附近压力较大，本轮技术反弹很可能已经结束。建<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>议投资者可适量短空，做好仓位管理。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">沪胶<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>TOCOM</SPAN>橡胶期货<SPAN lang=EN-US>22</SPAN>日收盘连续第四个交易日上涨，因市场预期橡胶需求在低产季将超出不断<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>下降的供应，而且生产商集团试图提高橡胶价格。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、中国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月份进口天然橡胶<SPAN lang=EN-US>10.72</SPAN>万吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、上半财年印度轮胎出口量上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>17.5%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：目前云南标一胶市场参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>36600-37000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，海南国营标一胶参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>36500 -36800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，越南<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="l" SourceValue="3" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3L</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>胶参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>37800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右（<SPAN lang=EN-US>17%</SPAN>票），泰国大烟片在<SPAN lang=EN-US>42000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右（<SPAN lang=EN-US>17%</SPAN>票<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>），小烟片在<SPAN lang=EN-US>41200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右（<SPAN lang=EN-US>17%</SPAN>票）；部分贸易商低价出货意愿不强，市场成交气氛一般。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>亚洲各橡胶主产区天气预报如下：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>曼谷<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="33" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0">33℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="25" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>25℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>越南<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>河内<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阴<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="18" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0">18℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="12" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>12℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>胡志明市<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="32" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0">32℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="23" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>23℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>马来西亚<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>吉隆坡<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="29" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0">29℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="24" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>24℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>印尼<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雅加达<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="32" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0">32℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="26" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>26℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>21555</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>3260</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：由于泰国政府计划敦促出口商停止橡胶发货，加上当前国内外橡胶库存均表现偏低，这都给期胶一定的支撑，但近期金融市场的焦点已转移至利比亚的军事格局上，国际局势存在着变数，市场心态不稳。从盘面来看，昨日沪胶<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约站稳<SPAN lang=EN-US>35000</SPAN>关口，但上方<SPAN lang=EN-US>35900-36000</SPAN>区间存在压力，短期料以震荡调整为主，建议投资者采取日内操作。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="22" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>22</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，纽约商业交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>(NYMEX)</SPAN>原油期货升至日本地震以来的最高水平，因利比亚战事及<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>中东紧张局势令投资者对原油供应的担忧重燃。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月份中国进口原油<SPAN lang=EN-US>1995</SPAN>万吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月末原油库存环比降<SPAN lang=EN-US>2% </SPAN>柴油库存环比大增<SPAN lang=EN-US>28%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：外盘油价多维持高位振荡，国内燃料油现货依然保持稳定，进口直馏高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>库提估价<SPAN lang=EN-US> 5800-5850</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；山东市场俄罗斯<SPAN lang=EN-US>M100</SPAN>库提估价<SPAN lang=EN-US>5900-6050</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>509300</SPAN>吨，无增减。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：目前利比亚军事形势提振了国际原油价格，中东局势的发展使得市场对日本核危机的关注有<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>所下降，但日本灾后重建也加大了原油需求的预期，沪油因此保持坚挺。另外成品油调价预期开始升间，利好因素多提前释放，料受此利好支撑山东燃料油偏强局势延续。昨日沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约小幅回落，预计短期运行于<SPAN lang=EN-US>4700-4800</SPAN>，建议区间操作。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">连塑<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、绿色低碳塑料已成为行业共识<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月中国塑料原料及制品进出口下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格走势平稳。扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>11350</SPAN>，与上一交易日持平。东北亚报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1330——1332</SPAN>美元，东南亚报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1255—1257</SPAN>美元，均上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>美元。市场交投谨慎，成交萎缩。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>张，与昨日持平<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日连塑小幅反弹，十日均线仍对其构成一定的压力。基本面上，日本强震令经济受损让市场产生恐慌情绪，但原油价格高位运行、<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格坚挺则对其产生一定的支撑。后市关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>11630</SPAN>一线的得失。基本面多空交织，建议投资者暂以日内交易为宜。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>4 PVC<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、德州<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>年内打造千亿级化工产业<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、东南亚和印度聚氯乙烯价格将继续上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货市场走势平稳。<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFR</SPAN>远东报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1132</SPAN>美元，华东乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8200</SPAN>元，均与昨日持平。华东电石法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7750</SPAN>元，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元。西北电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300</SPAN>元，华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3850</SPAN>元，无涨跌。市场成交清淡。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>5552</SPAN>张，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>3097</SPAN>张<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>止跌反弹，盘中突破了十日均线的压制，显示其短期有望展开反弹。基本面上，日本强震令其经济受损打压了市场的做多信心，需求复苏缓慢也对其形成一定的压力。但原油高位震荡，亚洲现货走势坚挺将对其产生一定的支撑。且经连续回落，短期也有一定的反弹要求，建议投资者逢回落可适当建多，上方压力位<SPAN lang=EN-US>8180——8200</SPAN>一线。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>5<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>PTA<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油收涨，因利比亚及中东局势持续紧张重燃供应忧虑，<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 4</SPAN>月原油期货上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.67</SPAN>美元，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>104</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、福建佳龙石化产能<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年的<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>装置满负荷运行，据悉厂家计划于<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="4" Day="20" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>开始对该装置进行<SPAN lang=EN-US>15-20</SPAN>天左右的例行检修，届时部分合同货源减量供应。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、重庆蓬威石化产能<SPAN lang=EN-US>90</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年的<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>装置因设备故障于<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="18" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>18</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>意外停车，目前公司正对该装置进行检修，预计检修时间<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>天左右。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货价格：华东<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场气氛观望，卖方报盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11650</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，买家寻货价格偏低，市场主流商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11550-11600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近展开，交投气氛平淡。亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场气氛趋稳，台产现货报盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1530</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1520-1525</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，韩产现货货源不多，报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1520</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，买家询盘谨慎，实盘稀少。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>8327</SPAN>张，较上一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>65</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>600</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：国内存款准备金率再度上调对商品市场有所压制；<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>价格小幅回落但继续维持高位，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>工厂检修计划增多，短期成本推动<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>震荡攀升；<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场气氛清淡，买方拿货心态谨慎。江浙涤丝市场整体稳定，以出货跑量为主，下游织造厂家库存不多小幅补仓；聚酯切片盘整为主，实际成交不多。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA1105</SPAN>合约小幅回落，期价回测下方均线支撑，短线延续高位震荡走势。操作上，回落短多交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">股指期货</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">瑞达期货：市场情绪谨慎，期指延续震荡<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>道琼斯<SPAN lang=EN-US> 12018.63 -17.90 -0.15%<BR></SPAN>纳斯达克<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2683.87 -8.22 -0.31%<BR></SPAN>标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500 1293.77 -4.61 -0.36%<BR></SPAN>富时<SPAN lang=EN-US>100 5762.71 -23.38 -0.40%<BR></SPAN>德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX 6780.97 -35.15 -0.52%<BR></SPAN>法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAC40 3892.71 -11.74 -0.30%<BR>C0MEX</SPAN>黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1427.6 1.2 0.08%<BR>NYMEX</SPAN>原油<SPAN lang=EN-US> 104.00 1.67 1.63%<BR></SPAN>美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 75.590 0.122 0.16%<BR></SPAN>小结：周二美股小幅收低。油价收在每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>104</SPAN>美元上方，使投资者们在美股三连阳之后获利回吐，同时也激起了市场对于燃料价格上涨可能压缩消费者开支的担心。欧洲股市周二小幅下跌，结束连续三个交易日上涨的势头，谨慎的投资者卖出了工程、汽车制造与零售相关股票。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1. </SPAN>国务院近期派出八个调查组，分赴各地对楼市调控效果进行摸底，房价下跌预期渐强；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2. </SPAN>发改委<SPAN lang=EN-US>:<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="5" Day="1" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="5" Day="1" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on">5<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月1</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>起</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>商品房销售明码标价，不得擅自涨价；<BR>3. </SPAN></SPAN>信贷紧缩大小非提现<SPAN lang=EN-US>A</SPAN>股<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>第二大解禁潮<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>将至；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>4. </SPAN>创业板公开谴责标准即将出台，较主板严苛；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>5</SPAN>．国务院将增加粮食直补和良种补贴等农业支持政策；<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR>6. </SPAN>短期内人民币升值步伐将加快，以应对外部不平衡带来的通胀难题，从长期看，美元贬值将为人民币升值带来持续动力；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>7. </SPAN>香港<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>CPI</SPAN>升<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.7%</SPAN>，通胀压力或加大<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>8 . </SPAN>卡扎菲空袭后首度公开露面，称不会投降，利比亚石油生产前景堪忧，中国暂停在利比亚投资；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>9. </SPAN>巴菲特访问韩国称：美国经济每个月都在变好；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>10.</SPAN>道琼斯通讯社调查的<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>位经济学家周二预计，中国央行可能会在第二季度将基准存、贷款利率各上调<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>个基点，时间最早在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月份。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>持仓分析<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="22" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="22" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on">3<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月22</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>前</SPAN></st1:chsdate>20</SPAN>名多头主力持单（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>18494</SPAN>手，空头主力持仓（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>24022</SPAN>手，净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>5528</SPAN>手，净空持仓增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>684</SPAN>手。其中：前<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>名主力机构净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>7986</SPAN>手，持仓变动较小。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>因日核危机得以控制和巴菲特将投资亚洲资本市场的提振，昨日股指企稳，探底反弹，主力机构均采取增仓对峙策略，分歧依旧。因外部环境具有较大不确定性，势必引起投资者新的担忧，短期内期指或延续调整、振荡为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>主力合约<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>周二报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3231.6</SPAN>点，预计周三<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>合约运行区间在：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3260-3210</SPAN>点之间。如上方冲破<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3260 </SPAN>点可以小多，止损下设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点；如下方破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3210</SPAN>点，可以介入空单，止损上设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点。如在区间内窄幅震荡，可以高空低多的策略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR><BR></SPAN>合约名称<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>HS 300 3280 3250 3200 3170<BR>IF1104 3290 3260 3210 3180<BR>IF1105 3310 3280 3230 3200<BR>IF1106 3330 3300 3250 3220<BR>IF1109 3370 3340 3290 3260<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">『免责声明：期市瞬息万变，盘中突发消息也将影响走势突变，投资人应盘
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