<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">金属产品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>本周一北非利比亚冲突进一步恶化，北约空袭利比亚消息令市场避险情绪显著提升，继续推高金价走强。<SPAN lang=EN-US>Comex</SPAN>金<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月开盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>1425.0</SPAN>，最高触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>1433.8</SPAN>，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>1424.3</SPAN>，收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>1426.4</SPAN>，成交<SPAN lang=EN-US>116106</SPAN>手，持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>225003</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>．美英舰队以及法国战机周日<SPAN lang=EN-US>(<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="20" Month="3" Year="2011">3<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月20</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate>)</SPAN>向利比亚发动军事打击，美英舰队向利比亚境内<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>多个海岸目标发射了<SPAN lang=EN-US>112</SPAN>枚<SPAN lang=EN-US>"</SPAN>战斧<SPAN lang=EN-US>"</SPAN>巡航导弹，同时法国战机也向利比亚地面军事目标展开打击。利比亚战事不断，避险需求高涨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2</SPAN>．全美地产经纪商协会<SPAN lang=EN-US>(NAR)</SPAN>公布的数据显示，经季节性因素调整后，美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>NAR</SPAN>季调后成屋销售总数年化为<SPAN lang=EN-US>488</SPAN>万户，创去年<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月份以来最低水平，预期<SPAN lang=EN-US>515</SPAN>万户；年化月率下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>9.6%</SPAN>，预期下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.0<BR></SPAN>期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> <st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="21" Month="3" Year="2011">3<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月21</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>沪金1106</SPAN></SPAN>合约早盘大幅高开<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.92</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克至<SPAN lang=EN-US>302.53</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，日内最高<SPAN lang=EN-US>303.84</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>302.23</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，收盘上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.49</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.50%</SPAN>，成交量<SPAN lang=EN-US>17756</SPAN>手，较上一个交易日有所增加，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>45722</SPAN>手，增仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>586</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>ETF</SPAN>持仓方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>全球最大的黄金上市交易基金<SPAN lang=EN-US>(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust</SPAN>表示，其黄金持仓量截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="21" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>21</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1,215.78</SPAN>吨，较上一个交易日大幅减仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>10.62</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>周一市场缺乏重要经济数据公布，西方多国部队空袭利比亚的消息令市场避险情绪白热化，金价高开高走维持继续上攻态势，短期将进一步测试上方<SPAN lang=EN-US>1430</SPAN>及<SPAN lang=EN-US>1450</SPAN>区域阻力。操作上，短线建议上海期金继续依托<SPAN lang=EN-US>300-301</SPAN>附近支撑逢低介入，中线<SPAN lang=EN-US>295</SPAN>附近已进场多单可继续耐心持有，中线目标<SPAN lang=EN-US>310 330</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">锌、铝<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜，伦锌遭受重挫，期价重回均线之下，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2283</SPAN>美元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.23%</SPAN>；伦铝继续回升，成交量继续萎缩，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2576</SPAN>美元，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.68%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>海关总署<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>中国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月原铝进出口均有所回落<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>国际铝业协会<SPAN lang=EN-US>:2</SPAN>月全球铝产量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>194.9</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17550-17650</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>535-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>435</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17500-17600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>585-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>485</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>A00 </SPAN>铝报在<SPAN lang=EN-US>16450-16470</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>20-</SPAN>平水。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>库存方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>736150</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>吨，上海交易所锌期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>307683</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1274</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铝库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4606175</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>6650</SPAN>吨，上海交易所铝期现货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>269411</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>3134</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>观点总结：基本面上，供求过剩的局面尚未改变。资金面上，沪铝主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单增加至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9000</SPAN>手以上；沪锌主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单增加至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.5</SPAN>万手左右，增加幅度显著。整体来看，锌铝净空单数量仍处于高位，资金操作偏空。技术显示，沪锌弱势难改；沪铝反弹无力。操作建议：沪锌空单持有；沪铝空单持有，止损位<SPAN lang=EN-US>16850</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铜<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：隔夜伦铜于晚间<SPAN lang=EN-US>19</SPAN>：<SPAN lang=EN-US>00</SPAN>之后持续下跌，盘中自高位<SPAN lang=EN-US>9592</SPAN>跌至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9384</SPAN>，尾盘跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.29%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9425.</SPAN>铜价下跌主要受中国较差的精炼铜进口数据和美国疲软的美国销售数拖累。目前铜价位于<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线与<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日均线之间运行，走势较疲软。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息方面：全美不动产协会周一公布，经季调后，美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月成屋销售总数年化为<SPAN lang=EN-US>488</SPAN>万户，创去年<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月份以来的最低水平，预期为<SPAN lang=EN-US>515</SPAN>万户，年化月率下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>9.6%</SPAN>，预期下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>4%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>。<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="21" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>21</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>中国海关数据显示<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月中国精炼铜进口量创下去年<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月以来的最低水平，因库存高企及中国春节假期影响，数据表明中国消费较疲软。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：上海金属网铜现货报价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>71150-71450</SPAN>，较昨日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元，现货较期货贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>，与上周保持不变；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.50-7.55</SPAN>，比价亦无变化，表明沪铜难以带动伦铜走出震荡行情，亦选择窄幅波动。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存：<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="21" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>21</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>伦铜库存增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>850</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>430500</SPAN>，目前注销仓单占库存比处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.38%</SPAN>，继续下滑且仍处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>之下，预计后期库存有望继续增加。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日铜价走势疲软，晚间自高位有所回落。近来受到关注的两市持仓量继续减少，其中沪铜的日成交量较低，表明投资者对铜市交投兴趣十分清淡。在利比亚和日本局势依旧紧张的情况下，昨日美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月成屋销售数据表现极差，从而引发市场担忧美国经济前景，另外近来伦铜库存持续增加，从注销仓单的表现来看，后期有望延续增加态势，因此目前铜市处于内忧外患的局面，短期料难以上涨，并有望震荡走低，今日沪铜开盘后若继续走低则可顺势短空，止损设于<SPAN lang=EN-US>72200<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4 <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="8" UnitName="mm"><SPAN lang=EN-US>8mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4590</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="20" UnitName="mm"><SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4890</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>(1) 2</SPAN>月全球粗钢产量同比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.8%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.17</SPAN>亿吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) </SPAN>淡水河谷中国区铁矿三月底开采，年产<SPAN lang=EN-US>120</SPAN>万吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) </SPAN>多城市楼盘出现“策略性降价”；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(4) </SPAN>印度粉矿<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="21" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>21</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>指数参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>171</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2999</SPAN>吨，增持<SPAN lang=EN-US>1197</SPAN>。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">小结：周一现货价格再次开始下跌，期价连续两天增仓大跌。目前，钢厂普遍下调出厂价，且连续两个交易大幅增仓，期钢恐将再探底部支撑。操作上，偏空思维，关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>4600</SPAN>附近支撑力度。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>1 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>由于市场方面预期本制糖年泰国食糖产量超预期或改善全球食糖供给前景对糖市形成压力，本周一<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>糖市原糖期货价<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>格小幅下跌。当日<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>期约糖价下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>23</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>-0.8%</SPAN>），收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>27.48</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅，盘中<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>期约糖价一度突破了<SPAN lang=EN-US>28</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅；<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1107</SPAN>期约糖价同时下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>个点<SPAN lang=EN-US>(-0.6%)</SPAN>，以<SPAN lang=EN-US>25.33</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅报收。上周糖价曾下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>4%</SPAN>，<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="2" Month="2" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>糖价一度冲击了<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>年来<SPAN lang=EN-US>36.08</SPAN>美<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅的最高点。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、巴西：至今中南部的食糖产量同比增至<SPAN lang=EN-US>98.84</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> 2</SPAN>、俄罗斯<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月份进口原糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>93,600</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>国内现货未有明显变化，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7170</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1554</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1320</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内主产区天气情况：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>两天内，全区阴天大部有小雨。南宁市<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>今天白天到晚上，阴天有分散小雨，东北风<SPAN lang=EN-US>2-3</SPAN>级，最高气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="13" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>13℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>，最低气温<SPAN lang=EN-US>9 ℃</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约继续承受压于<SPAN lang=EN-US>7000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>KDJ</SPAN>指标弱势反弹，表明多头力量匮乏。操作上，中线逢高抛空。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">油脂：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：反弹态势渐弱，<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>豆油冲高回落，小幅收涨，主<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>55.88</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅；因价格上涨抑制了中国和印度进口商<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>的需求，<SPAN lang=EN-US>BMD</SPAN>棕榈油期货小幅下跌，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月合约下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>26</SPAN>令吉收<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3420</SPAN>令吉<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；稳定的商业买盘兴趣刺激了价格上扬，<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>加<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>拿大油菜籽期货主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月合约上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.00</SPAN>加元，报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>576.80</SPAN>加元<SPAN lang=EN-US> /</SPAN>公吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息：国际方面，美国农业部豆油出口销售报告显示，截<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="10" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>当周，美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010-11</SPAN>年度豆油出口净销售<SPAN lang=EN-US>14200</SPAN>吨，当<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>周美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010-11</SPAN>年度豆油出口装船<SPAN lang=EN-US>65900</SPAN>吨。国内方面，海关有<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>关数据显示，沿海油厂加工收益修正后，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月份加工进口大豆亏<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>损<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>-200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月上旬加工亏损<SPAN lang=EN-US>220</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，比预测的亏损<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>程度高<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货：昨日油脂现货报价跟随期货市场反弹，幅度在<SPAN lang=EN-US>100- 200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。沿海四级豆油约为<SPAN lang=EN-US>9950-10100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；港口棕榈<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>油报价集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9280-9700</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；国内四级菜油出厂价格处于<SPAN lang=EN-US> 10000-10300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单：豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>7125</SPAN>张；菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>12944</SPAN>张；均无变化。棕榈油<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>1100</SPAN>张；较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1100</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：随着国内又一次上调存款准备金及利比亚纷争<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>的再度升级，国内油脂连日的反弹态势开始减弱，就目前来看<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线附近有一定压力。而隔夜外盘的冲高回落更加增添<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>压力，建议投资者前期多单择机获利了结，落袋为安。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期棉收跌，因投资者了结获利。指标<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE-5</SPAN>月期棉合约下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.16</SPAN>美分，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>198.96</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、印度联邦政府已经作出决定，允许出口<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2010</SPAN>－<SPAN lang=EN-US>11 </SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US> 7.20 </SPAN>亿公斤棉纱出口额度的剩余数量。对外贸易总局（<SPAN lang=EN-US>DGFT</SPAN>）在一份通知中说：<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>有许可证就可以出口棉纱。要根据<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>－<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>财年（<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="31" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>31</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>结束）<SPAN lang=EN-US> 7.20 </SPAN>亿公斤出口额度发放棉纱出口许可证。<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>据<SPAN lang=EN-US>Poppys </SPAN>集团总裁<SPAN lang=EN-US> A. Sakthivel </SPAN>说，剩余数量大约<SPAN lang=EN-US> 5000 </SPAN>万公斤，由于政府做出的决定，现在可以出口。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>18</SPAN>日进口棉中国主港报价大幅反弹，各品种全面上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>美分。棉价的剧烈波动对现货成交影响很大，棉商反映的毁约和成交减少等情况得到证实。根据最新的美棉出口周报，上周中国纺织企业签约量很少，而毁约量达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.34</SPAN>万吨，新花的签约量也大大减少。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>30556</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，与上一交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>510</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>363</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。截止<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="20" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，全国棉花交易市场业务棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>289627</SPAN>吨，较上一日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>474</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>主产区天气：未来三天，西北地区东南部、黄淮南部及其以南大部地区等地将有小到中雨，其中，安徽南部、福建西北部、云南西北部等地的部分地区有大雨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：受获利回吐影响，美棉冲高回落；国内央行再度上调存款准备金率压制棉市，纺织企业因面临纱线的库存压力，采购积极性不高。国内现货价格小幅下跌，现货市场前期的恐慌情绪明显缓解，短期棉价跌至前期收购价区域，下调空间有所受限。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约高开低走，期价回测<SPAN lang=EN-US>30000</SPAN>关口支撑，短线面临<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>周均线压力，中期维持高位震荡走势。操作上，短线交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">谷物：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、有传言称中国周四买入美国玉米，并可能在今年进一步进行采购，但未获证实。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、据美国谷物理事会表示，迄今为止没有听说日本买家取消谷物采购合同。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、据贸易商表示，本周韩国饲料加工商和面粉加工商利用国际价格下跌之际开始积极采购，至少买入了<SPAN lang=EN-US>70.5</SPAN>万吨谷物和油粕。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米期价在震荡中走高，强劲的出口需求支撑期价走高。<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米：<SPAN lang=EN-US>686.5</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US> +3</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货价格：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、河南鹤壁市豫麦<SPAN lang=EN-US>34</SPAN>收购价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，河南金粒麦业有限公司<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年延津产<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>级白小麦收收购价格<SPAN lang=EN-US>2130</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年延津产西农<SPAN lang=EN-US>979</SPAN>收购价格<SPAN lang=EN-US>2360</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年延津产郑麦<SPAN lang=EN-US>366</SPAN>收购价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年延津产藁<SPAN lang=EN-US>9415</SPAN>收购价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，与上周五持平。郑州批发企业豫麦<SPAN lang=EN-US>34</SPAN>火车板价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2480</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，比上周五上扬<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2</SPAN>、华南地区早籼稻价格稳定在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2160-2170</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>江西乐平地区地区价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，安徽合肥稳定在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2060</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3</SPAN>、国内部分地区玉米现货价格继续上涨，大连港内玉米平舱价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2170-2200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，广东港口玉米报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2290-2300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，山东青岛饲料厂玉米进厂价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2140-2180</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>操作提示：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>玉米：外盘大幅上涨，但内盘涨幅有限，特别是近月<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月合约走势偏弱，上行动力受有所不足，但基于良好的基本面，笔者判断期价后期仍有望呈现强势走势。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>郑麦：期价继续，技术性继续呈现企稳反弹态势，从近期走势看，期价将是一个震荡偏强的格局，<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月合约关注后期<SPAN lang=EN-US>2900</SPAN>处的压力作用。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>早籼稻：期价震荡反弹的格局持续，现货市场的走势给予期价上行动力，前期的低点支撑有效，近期仍可持有偏多思路<SPAN lang=EN-US>.<BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">大豆豆粕：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、根据海关消息，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月份中国大豆进口量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>232</SPAN>万吨，较<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月份减少了一半以上，主要原因是油厂压榨利润大幅下滑，基于国内仍较庞大的库存，采购的意愿不强。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFTC</SPAN>持仓报告显示，截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="15" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="15" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，大豆期货上商品基金的净多单减少了<SPAN lang=EN-US>13599</SPAN>手，净多持仓在<SPAN lang=EN-US>164934</SPAN>手。但上周后半段基金有重新补回多单的动作。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>CBOT</SPAN>大豆期货小幅走高，跟随玉米的走势，新作大豆涨势较强。<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>大豆：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1364</SPAN>美分，<SPAN lang=EN-US> +1.5</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货价格：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、核算的进口大豆成本继续回升，<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月船期的巴西大豆价格今天核算在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4480</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。黑龙江佳木斯国产大豆的收购价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3800-3820</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，需要特别关注的是国产大豆的现货价格，按照<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月合约的期价，将现货大豆做交割有利润空间。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>豆粕现货价格平稳，沿海地区主流价格回到了<SPAN lang=EN-US>3100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，目前连云港在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3120</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，东莞价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，山东地区价格较低，议价范围较大，成交预计能在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3020-3050</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>盘面分析：受外盘继续反弹的带动，今天盘面走势较强，期价开盘后一度盘中震荡，但随后期价走强，大豆盘中更是出现强势拉升走势，显示了多头力量。但是豆粕的走势仍旧偏弱，值得关注的豆粕的持仓继续下滑，这使得盘中期价走强的动力不足。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>操作建议：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘走高，内盘同样上涨，反弹的态势延续，操作上，前期的多单可继续持有即可，加仓的短线多单如遇到期价快速拉升可选择平仓离场。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>1 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">连塑<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、福建塑料制品出口持续增长<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>"</SPAN>春令热线<SPAN lang=EN-US>"</SPAN>展开<SPAN lang=EN-US>"</SPAN>限塑令<SPAN lang=EN-US>"<BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格走势平稳。扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>11350</SPAN>，东北亚报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1320——1322</SPAN>美元，与上一交易日持平。东南亚报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1245—1247</SPAN>美元，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>美元。市场交投谨慎，成交萎缩。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>5552</SPAN>张，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>3097</SPAN>张<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日连塑反弹受阻，持仓大幅增加，显示此位置较为敏感，多空双方互不相让。基本面上，日本强震令经济受损让市场产生恐慌情绪，但原油价格高位运行、<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格坚挺则对其产生一定的支撑。基本面多空交织，建议投资者暂以日内交易为宜。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>2 PVC<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、日本强震影响我石化产品进口<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、国内电石市场现疲态货源分布不均<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货市场走势平稳。<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFR</SPAN>远东报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1132</SPAN>美元，华东乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8200</SPAN>元，华东电石法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7700</SPAN>元，均与昨日持平。西北电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300</SPAN>元，华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3850</SPAN>元，无涨跌。市场成交清淡。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>张，与昨日持平<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>继续窄幅震荡，成交与持仓均大幅萎缩，显示短期走势仍较疲软。基本面上，日本强震令其经济受损打压了市场的做多信心，需求复苏缓慢也对其形成一定的压力。但原油高位震荡，亚洲现货走势坚挺将对其产生一定的支撑。基本面多空交织，建议投资者暂以日内交易为宜。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 PTA<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油收涨，因中东政局持续紧张，<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 4</SPAN>月原油期货上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.26</SPAN>美元，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>102.33</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、中石化天津石化计划三月末将产能<SPAN lang=EN-US>34</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年的<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>装置进行为期<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>个月的例行检修。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、远东石化两套产能各<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>万吨的<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>装置计划于<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月份各进行为期<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>周的停车检修，目前远东石化的合约用户被告知检修期间合约供应将减半。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货价格：<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>内盘气氛偏弱买卖双方观望为主。一般报盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11600-11650</SPAN>元左右，买家递盘观望，少量在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11550</SPAN>元或偏内。外盘商谈稀少，台产现货一般报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1530</SPAN>美元左右，成交商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1510</SPAN>－<SPAN lang=EN-US>1520</SPAN>美元内进行，浙江一单现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>1510</SPAN>美元成交。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>8392</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>80</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>600</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：国内存款准备金率再度上调对商品市场有所压制；日本地区<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>装置停产支撑<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>价格维持高位，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>工厂检修计划增多，短期成本推动<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>震荡攀升，关注下游需求；<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场气氛偏弱，成交较为清淡。江浙涤丝市场整体稳定，多数工厂适度优惠促销，下游观望心态依旧；聚酯切片盘整为主，实际成交不多。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA1105</SPAN>合约震荡收跌，期价高开后回测下方均线支撑，短线延续高位震荡走势。操作上，回落适当短多。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">沪胶<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘走势：日本春分日，<SPAN lang=EN-US>TOCOM</SPAN>期货市场休市。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>TOCOM</SPAN>截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="10" Month="03" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>03</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>天然橡胶库存<SPAN lang=EN-US>5,082</SPAN>吨，较前期减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>312</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、盖世汽车网上周公布的一份统计数据显示，过去五年日本主要车企的海外产量比重显著增加，而日本本土产量占比相应减少。日本 汽车企业正加速“撤离”日本。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：目前云南国营标一胶市场参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>36400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，海南国营标一胶参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>36300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/ </SPAN>吨左右，越南<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="3" UnitName="l"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3L</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>胶暂无报价，泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US>3#</SPAN>烟片胶在<SPAN lang=EN-US>43000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右（<SPAN lang=EN-US>17%</SPAN>票）；今日贸易商报价走高，部分贸易 商低价出货意愿不强，市场成交多是小批量。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">亚洲各橡胶主产区天气预报如下：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>曼谷<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="32" UnitName="℃">32<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="26" UnitName="℃">26<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">越南<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>河内<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>中雨<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="26" UnitName="℃">26<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="18" UnitName="℃">18<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">胡志明市<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="32" UnitName="℃">32<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="23" UnitName="℃">23<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">马来西亚 吉隆坡<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="31" UnitName="℃">31<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="24" UnitName="℃">24<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">印尼<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>雅加达<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="31" UnitName="℃">31<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="26" UnitName="℃">26<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>24815</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>4815</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：由于泰国政府计划敦促出口商停止橡胶发货，加上当前国内外橡胶库存均表现偏低，这都给期胶一定的支撑，但近期金融市场的焦点已转移至利比亚的军事格局上，国际局势存在着变数，市场心态不 稳。从盘面来看，昨日沪胶<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约多空争夺于<SPAN lang=EN-US>35000</SPAN>关口，期价上行动能不足，但下方短期均线支撑显现 ，后市期价料有所反复，建议投资者日内操作为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR><BR>5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘走势：纽约商业交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>(NYMEX)</SPAN>原油期货<SPAN lang=EN-US>21</SPAN>日结算价收盘走高，因美国及其盟友对利比亚发动空袭引发市场担忧地区紧张局势升级将导致石油供应在更长时间内中断。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、伊朗伊拉克联合油田将增加油气勘探活动。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-tab-count: 1"> </SPAN>2</SPAN>、科兹莫石油公司将其<SPAN lang=EN-US>Sakaide</SPAN>和四日市炼 油厂的产能水平提升至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月以来的水平，因其千叶日处理能力<SPAN lang=EN-US>22</SPAN>万桶炼油厂关闭。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>21</SPAN>日黄埔到岸价，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>668.53</SPAN>美元，到岸贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>14-15</SPAN>美元，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>380 </SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>653.28</SPAN>美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>509300</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>400</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：目前利比亚军事形势提振了国际原油价格，中东局势的发展使得市场对日本核危机的关注有所下降，但日本灾后重建也加大了原油需求的预期，沪油因此跟随反弹。昨日沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约高位震荡，上方面临<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>日均线压力，预计短期运行于<SPAN lang=EN-US>4700-4800</SPAN>，建议区间操作。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">股指期货</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">瑞达期货：多空持续对峙，期指短期仍盘整<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>道琼斯<SPAN lang=EN-US> 12036.53 178.01 1.50%<BR></SPAN>纳斯达克<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2692.09 48.42 1.83%<BR></SPAN>标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500 1298.38 19.18 1.50%<BR></SPAN>富时<SPAN lang=EN-US>100 5786.09 67.96 1.19%<BR></SPAN>德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX 6816.12 151.72 2.28%<BR></SPAN>法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAC40 3904.45 94.23 2.47%<BR>C0MEX</SPAN>黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1426.4 10.3 0.73%<BR>NYMEX</SPAN>原油<SPAN lang=EN-US> 102.33 1.26 1.25%<BR></SPAN>美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 75.468 -0.086 -0.11%<BR></SPAN>小结：周一美股收高，至此大盘实现三连阳。<SPAN lang=EN-US>AT&T</SPAN>同意斥资收购德国电信美国子公司，将催生出美国最大的无线运营商。日本接近控制核危机以及巴菲特看好亚洲市场等消息提升了市场情绪。欧洲股市周一强劲攀升，德国电信拟向<SPAN lang=EN-US>AT&T</SPAN>出让其<SPAN lang=EN-US>T-Mobile</SPAN>美国部门的消息刺激电讯板块大涨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1. </SPAN>温家宝称对欧美及全球经济前景感到乐观；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2. </SPAN>证监会<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>新三板扩容分两步走，扩至全国；即，场外交易在高新技术产业园区企业挂牌机制运作成熟后，场外市场试点的范围将扩大到全国具备条件的股份有限公司。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3. </SPAN>收入分配改革总方案或年内出台；个税改革方案近期上报国务院，起征点<SPAN lang=EN-US>2500</SPAN>或<SPAN lang=EN-US>3000</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>4. </SPAN>八家外资银行获准投资中国大陆银行间债券市场；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>5</SPAN>．海南离岛免税政策周四发布，或五一试行；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>6. </SPAN>外汇局：热钱影响不了股市楼市走向；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>7. </SPAN>多国部队加大力度空袭利比亚<SPAN lang=EN-US>, </SPAN>美国宣称卡扎菲下台是<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>最终目标<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>8.</SPAN>周一巴菲特：韩国是适合并购的狩猎场，看好地震后日股投资价值。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>持仓分析<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="21" Month="3" Year="2011"><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="21" Month="3" Year="2011">3<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月21</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>前</SPAN></st1:chsdate>20</SPAN>名多头主力持单（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>17811</SPAN>手，空头主力持仓（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>23145</SPAN>手，净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>5334</SPAN>手，净空持仓减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>38</SPAN>手。其中：前<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>名主力机构净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>7534</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>因利比亚动荡局势、日核电站危机和国内紧缩货币政策等影响，投资者避险情趣较浓，成交量较为清淡，主力持仓变动不大。结合基本面，伴随局势得以控制或转好，期指或有所表现。短期内期指以延续调整为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>主力合约<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>周一报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3230.0</SPAN>点，预计周二<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>合约运行区间在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3260-3200</SPAN>点之间。如上方冲破<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3260 </SPAN>点可以小多，止损下设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点；如下方破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3200</SPAN>点，可以介入空单，止损上设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点。如在区间内窄幅震荡，可以高空低多的策略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>合约名称<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>HS 300 3280 3250 3195 3145<BR>IF1104 3300 3260 3200 3150<BR>IF1105 3315 3275 3220 3165<BR>IF1106 3350 3300 3250 3220 <BR>IF1109 3390 3340 3290 3260<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">『免责声明：期市瞬息万变，盘中突发消息也将影响走势突变，投资人应盘
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