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<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">全球主要指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
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<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="18" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">18</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">收盘：上证指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2906.89</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.33%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；沪深</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">300</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3215.69</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.58%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；中小板指</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">6734.26</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.55%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；恒生指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"> 22300.23</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.07%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；德</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">DAX 6664.40 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.11%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；道琼工业</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">11858.52 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.71%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；纳斯达克</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2643.67 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.29%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；</SPAN></P>
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<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">人民币兑美元中间价</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">6.5668</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">22</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">基点；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">CRB</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">658.90 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.01%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">BDI 1531 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.13%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">GlobalCoal</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">煤炭价格周指（</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">NEWC INDEX 123.29 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">4.87%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">RB INDEX 123.66 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3.27%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">）</SPAN></P>
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<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">瑞达国内宏观观点</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; BACKGROUND: white; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana">中共中央政治局常委、国务院副总理李克强</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; BACKGROUND: white; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''" lang=EN-US>20</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; BACKGROUND: white; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana">日出席第十二届中国发展高层论坛开幕式并致辞。他表示中国</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">将围绕转变经济发展方式的关键领域和薄弱环节，编制和实施</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">18</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">个国家级重点专项规划。</SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><FONT face="Times New Roman">2.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">中国人民银行周五晚上宣布从本月</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">25</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">号起，上调存款准备金率</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">个百分点，此次调整成为今年以来央行第三次上调存款准备金率，也是自去年以来的第九次上调。调整后，大型金融机构的存款准备金率将提高至</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">20%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">的历史高位。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR><FONT face="Times New Roman">3.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; BACKGROUND: white; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana">商务部部长表示，目前中国对于全球经济增长的贡献超过了</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; BACKGROUND: white; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''" lang=EN-US>50%</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; BACKGROUND: white; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana">，中国进口已成为世界增长的重要推动力，中国希望对华有较大贸易逆差的国家能够放宽出口的管制措施，为促进双边贸易的平衡发展营造良好的政策环境。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; BACKGROUND: white; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P style="TEXT-INDENT: -10.95pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 10.95pt; mso-char-indent-count: -1.04" class=MsoNormal><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">瑞达国际宏观观点</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
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<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">在利比亚政府军逐渐消灭反对派势力之后，上周五美英法促成联合国决议授权对利比亚当局进行武力打击，上周六卡扎菲继续围剿反对派势力，美英法对利比亚发动空袭，卡扎菲政权终于不敌压力被迫停火。我们认为卡扎菲政权不值得同情，但美英法等打着保护利比亚平民的旗号在利比亚内战接近尾声之际不顾平民安危发动空袭也是居心叵测：争夺对产油国家地区的控制的意图非常明显。利比亚停火消息缓和市场担忧情绪。</SPAN></P>
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<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美国上周五晚间加入了其他</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">G7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">国家对汇市进行干预，具体干预规模措施还无法确定，但在继续促进日元贬值之外，也“顺便”贬值了美元。可见美元弱势符合美国当前利益。弱势美元一定程度上推高大宗商品价格。</SPAN></P>
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<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">今日提示：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">22:00 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">NAR</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">季调后成屋销售；日本春分节休市</SPAN></P>
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<P style="TEXT-INDENT: -10.95pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 10.95pt; mso-char-indent-count: -1.04" class=MsoNormal><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">观点总结</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; BACKGROUND: white; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; BACKGROUND: white; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana">由于</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; BACKGROUND: white; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''" lang=EN-US>3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; BACKGROUND: white; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana">月和</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; BACKGROUND: white; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''" lang=EN-US>4</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; BACKGROUND: white; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana">月到期央票集中放量，在目前国内通胀难以回落、市场流动性紧缩、银行存款准备金率创历史新高以及外围不确定因素增加的背景下，预计近期央行将主要通过央票来对冲释放的流动性，但我们认为再次上调存准的可能性仍然存在。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; BACKGROUND: white; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">欧元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美元（利好）；美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日元（利好）；美指（利空）；德国国债收益率（利空）；美国国债收益率（利好）；日本国债收益率（利好）；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">LIBOR</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-famil
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