<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">金属产品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">锌、铝<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜，伦锌小幅回升，期价一度站上<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日均线，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2335</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.26%</SPAN>；伦铝强势反弹，<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线被夺回，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2520</SPAN>美元，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.16%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>上期所：铅期货合约<SPAN lang=EN-US>24</SPAN>日上市<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月工业产值月比下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.1%<BR><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17500-17600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>505-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>405</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17450-17550</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>555-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>455</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>A00 </SPAN>铝报在<SPAN lang=EN-US>16340-16360</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>60-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>库存方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>733475</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>吨，上海交易所锌期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>305560</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>51</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铝库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4619400</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1050</SPAN>吨，上海交易所铝期现货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>275478</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>3755</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>观点总结：基本面上，供求过剩的局面尚未改变。资金面上，沪铝主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单维持在<SPAN lang=EN-US>8000</SPAN>手左右；沪锌主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单减少至<SPAN lang=EN-US>5000</SPAN>手左右，下降幅度显著。整体来看，锌铝净空单数量仍处于高位，资金操作偏空。技术显示，沪锌反弹结束，新一波跌势可能展开；沪铝再创新低，跌势未完。操作建议：沪锌空单持有；沪铝空单持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>本周四受美元再次弱势下行及国际原油期货走高影响，国际金价低位企稳小幅反弹，<SPAN lang=EN-US>Comex</SPAN>金<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月开盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>1401.7</SPAN>，最高触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>1405.2</SPAN>，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>1387.9</SPAN>，收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>1304.2</SPAN>，成交<SPAN lang=EN-US>104197</SPAN>手，持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>232371</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>． 美国劳工部<SPAN lang=EN-US>(DOL)</SPAN>最新公布的数据显示，美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月消费者物价指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>(CPI)</SPAN>月率上升<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.5%</SPAN>，预期为上升<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.4%</SPAN>，前两月亦均为上升<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.4%</SPAN>；年率上升<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.1%</SPAN>，预期上升<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.0<BR>2</SPAN>． 美国<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="11" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>当周初请失业金人数下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.6</SPAN>万人，至<SPAN lang=EN-US>38.5</SPAN>万人，预期为<SPAN lang=EN-US>38.7</SPAN>万。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> <st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="17" Month="3" Year="2011">3<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月17</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>沪金1106</SPAN></SPAN>合约早盘小幅低开<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.74</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克至<SPAN lang=EN-US>294.76</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，日内最高<SPAN lang=EN-US>295.80</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>294.76</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，收盘下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.70</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.24%</SPAN>，成交量<SPAN lang=EN-US>8940</SPAN>手，较上一个交易日有所减少，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>45316</SPAN>手，减仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>336</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>ETF</SPAN>持仓方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>全球最大的黄金上市交易基金<SPAN lang=EN-US>(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust</SPAN>表示，其黄金持仓量截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="17" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>17</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>维持<SPAN lang=EN-US>1,217.30</SPAN>吨，与上一个交易日持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>本周四金价延续自<SPAN lang=EN-US>1380</SPAN>附近展开的反弹格局，疲弱美元及再次上行的通胀数据均令市场情绪好转，再次低位买入黄金，技术上看，金价暂受压于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日均线<SPAN lang=EN-US>1420</SPAN>，不能重新站上<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日均线价格仍不排除再次下探筑底可能。整体上资金面仍偏多，中期上行趋势仍维持良好，短线金价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1350-1370</SPAN>区域消化获利盘后仍有望再次上行。操作上，期金短线建议逢低买多，中线进入<SPAN lang=EN-US>294-291</SPAN>一线可分批介入多单。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">铜<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：昨日伦铜自沪铜收盘后一改疲软走势，开始持续上扬，自<SPAN lang=EN-US>9222</SPAN>涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.65%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9560</SPAN>，盘中最高触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>9585</SPAN>，昨日大幅上涨主要是受市场日本灾后重建对提升铜需求有良好预期，以及近期美元指数持续走软。目前铜价触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线，上方面临<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日和<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>日均线的压制。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>。昨日欧美股市大幅上扬，受市场对<SPAN lang=EN-US>G7</SPAN>财长会议将为缓解日本危机出台具体措施并为日本提供经济援助的乐观预期推动，但<SPAN lang=EN-US>G7</SPAN>国家直接提供经济援助或购买日本国债的可能性较低<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>。美国<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="12" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>当周初申请失业金人数降至<SPAN lang=EN-US>38.5</SPAN>万人，好于预期的<SPAN lang=EN-US>38.7</SPAN>万人，前周修正为<SPAN lang=EN-US>40.1</SPAN>万人。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：上海金属网铜现货报价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>69800-70200</SPAN>，较昨日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>500</SPAN>元，现货较期货升水<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>，表明在铜价下跌过程中，现货较期货抗跌；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.57-7.60</SPAN>，比价小幅回升，表明今日上涨，沪铜表现强劲。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存：<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="17" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>17</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>伦铜库存增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1825</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>428800</SPAN>，目前注销仓单占库存比处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.71%</SPAN>，继续下滑且仍处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>之下，再结合伦铜库存的季节性变化，预计后期库存有望继续增加。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日亚洲市铜价表现不佳，内外铜价均冲高回落，但自沪铜收市后伦铜表现靓丽，一路扶摇直上，尾盘涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.58%</SPAN>至日内高点附近。此次大幅上涨料打破此前铜价低位弱势震荡格局，铜价有望再拾涨势，操作上多头则继续持有，并关注两市持仓量的变化，此前两市持仓量均大幅减少，暗示多空在<SPAN lang=EN-US>69000</SPAN>附近出现方向不明，而此次的上涨可能引发多头的再次入场，若配合持仓的大幅增加，此次涨势可期。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="8" UnitName="mm">8mm</st1:chmetcnv> Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4610</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="20" UnitName="mm"><SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4920</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>(1) </SPAN>日本央行再次向金融系统注资<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>万亿日元；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) </SPAN>中国今年铁矿石进口量料同比增约<SPAN lang=EN-US>6%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) </SPAN>日本钢产能可以满足震后重建需求；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(4) </SPAN>印度粉矿<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="17" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>17</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>指数参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>171</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2102</SPAN>吨，持平。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">小结：周四<SPAN lang=EN-US>RB1110</SPAN>合约反弹受压于<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日线。基本面上，现货报价继续上行，但连续上涨后对于需求的可持续性不少人依然打上了一个问号。隔夜避险情绪降温，美元指数回落推动大宗商品大幅走高。操作上建议，维持震荡偏多思维。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR>1 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">谷物：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、芝加哥期货交易所（<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>）小麦与玉米的价格升水继续缩小，目前仅略高于<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>美分，创下了十几年来的最低水平。通常情况下，两者的价差在<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>到<SPAN lang=EN-US>175</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>蒲式耳。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、日本农业部将在下周三结束的同时买卖招标会上寻购<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>万吨饲料小麦和<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>万吨饲料大麦。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="16" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>国家临时存储小麦（含跨省移库）竞价销售计划交易小麦<SPAN lang=EN-US>825663 </SPAN>吨，实际成交<SPAN lang=EN-US>457208</SPAN>吨，成交率<SPAN lang=EN-US>55.37%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米接近涨停，触发<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>美分的涨停限制，录得<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月来的最大涨幅，而中国或将购买的传言加大了期价升势。<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米：<SPAN lang=EN-US>646.5</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US> +30<BR> </SPAN>玉米跌势结束，市场摆脱了前期的恐慌情绪，期价短期将会修复前期过大的跌幅。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货价格：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、河南驻马店小麦价格整体走稳，当地强筋麦（西农<SPAN lang=EN-US>979</SPAN>、郑麦<SPAN lang=EN-US>9023</SPAN>）收购价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2100-2120</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨以上，变化不大，可售货源偏紧。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2</SPAN>、华南地区早籼稻价格稳定在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2160-2170</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>江西乐平地区地区价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，安徽合肥稳定在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2060</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3</SPAN>、近期国内北方产区玉米价格涨跌互现，大连港内玉米平舱价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2200-2220</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，广东港内玉米主流报价<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2280-2300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均与昨日基本持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>操作提示：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>玉米：期价低开高走，继续收阳线，且从基本面上看，玉米难以继续走低，但是期价短期还是要关注外盘走势，一旦外盘企稳，期价有望迎来强势。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>郑麦：期价大幅收高，技术性呈现企稳反弹态势，从近期走势看，期价将是一个震荡偏强的格局。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>早籼稻：期价震荡反弹的格局持续，前期的低点支撑有效，近期仍可持有偏多思路<SPAN lang=EN-US>.<BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">大豆豆粕：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="15" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>中国农业部根据全国<SPAN lang=EN-US>500</SPAN>个农情基点县调查，预计大豆意向种植面积可能下滑<SPAN lang=EN-US>11.2%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、美豆出口销售报告数据未达市场预期。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>CBOT</SPAN>大豆期货大幅上涨，修复前期的跌幅，市场重新审视利多因素。<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>大豆：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1335.25</SPAN>美分，<SPAN lang=EN-US> +48.25</SPAN>美分。美豆止住跌势，期价大幅回升，一方面显示了市场情绪的变化，另一方面修复了技术面的弱势，关注能否形成空头陷阱形态。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货价格：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、核算的进口大豆成本小幅回升，<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月船期的巴西大豆价格今天核算在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。港口大豆的分销价格稳定在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4150-4160</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，黑龙江佳木斯国产大豆的收购价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3800-3820</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2</SPAN>、豆粕现货价格有所企稳，各地油厂报价小幅波动，山东沿海地区价格今天到了<SPAN lang=EN-US>3050-3080</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，广西防城港价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3150</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，江苏地区价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3100-3120</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>盘面分析：国内的盘面强势的特征开始显现，虽然外盘上涨，但国内盘面开盘价格却比较偏低，但是在早盘调整后，期价开始反弹。大豆和豆油的涨幅较大，本身比较良好的基本面给予支撑。豆粕表现继续偏弱，涨幅有限，期价更是创出近期的一个低点，现货市场的疲软压制了期价的走势。但是基于对后期养殖业恢复的判断，笔者仍旧对豆粕后市持乐观态度。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>操作建议：期价整体上行的趋势没有被破坏，笔者认为，在前期短暂的恐慌后，期价将会企稳，前期的多单可继续持有，激进投资者可选择加仓短线多单。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>受市场方面对日本灾难的担心减弱、周边商品和证券市场普涨、现货需求回暖以及担心供给偏紧延续等因素的支撑，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>在技术买盘的推动下，本周四<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>糖市原糖期货价格全线暴涨。当日<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>期约糖价<SPAN lang=EN-US>89</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>+3.4%</SPAN>），收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>26.74</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅；<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1107</SPAN>期约糖价同时<SPAN lang=EN-US>94</SPAN>个点<SPAN lang=EN-US>(+4%)</SPAN>，以<SPAN lang=EN-US>24.60</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅报收。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、全国农民种植意向：粮棉菜将增加，糖料、油料略减<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> 2</SPAN>、印度将再次考虑出口<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>万吨白糖的事宜<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>国内现货小幅上调，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7150</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1846</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1220</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内主产区天气情况：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>今天白天到晚上，全区阴天有小到中雨，其中梧州、贵港、南宁、崇左、玉林、北海、钦州、防城港等市局部有中到<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>大雨。<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>南宁市<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>今天白天到晚上，阴天有小到中雨，东北风<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-2</SPAN>级，最高气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="12" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>12℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>，最低气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="8" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>8℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约反弹反扑<SPAN lang=EN-US>7000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，但<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日均线形成一定压制，盘中反弹伴随大幅减仓表明短期多头拉高出货。操作上<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>，中线逢高抛空。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">油脂：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：受空头回补提振，<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>豆油继续反弹，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月收于<SPAN lang=EN-US> 54.52</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅；因围绕在日本地震和海啸将给经济造成何种影<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>响的不确定性令价格承压，<SPAN lang=EN-US>BMD</SPAN>棕榈油期货小幅回落，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>合约下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>令吉收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3338</SPAN>令吉<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；油菜籽的强势与各种商品的<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>新买盘相关，<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>加拿大油菜籽期货主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月合约上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>28.20</SPAN>加元<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>，报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>562.10</SPAN>加元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>公吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息：国际方面，印尼棕榈油生产协会主席日前表示，印<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>尼树龄较大的棕榈树增加，产量不会出现大幅增长，预计今年<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>棕榈油的产量达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>2250</SPAN>万吨，实现温和增加。国内方面，农业<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>部公布的全国农民种植意向调查显示，油料作物全年意向种植<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>面积减少了<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.6%</SPAN>，而粮食、蔬菜等则有所增加。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货：昨日油脂现货报价有小幅反弹，沿海四级豆油约为<SPAN lang=EN-US> 9600-9850</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；港口棕榈油报价集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9000-9500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；国<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>内四级菜油出厂价格处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>9900-10400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单：豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>7125</SPAN>张，均无变化；棕榈油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>张，较上一交<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>张；菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>12944</SPAN>张，较上一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1200</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：日本地震对于整体市场的影响在开始逐渐淡化<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>，而前期持续的大幅下跌使得国内外油脂短期内有超跌后的反<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>弹要求，多单可轻仓介入，暂不过分高看，目标<SPAN lang=EN-US>200-350</SPAN>点。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR>5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">棉花：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘走势：期棉价格前一交易日跌至<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>周来低点，吸引贸易商及投资者买盘。受此提振，期棉价格周四<SPAN lang=EN-US>(<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="17" Month="3" Year="2011">3<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月17</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate>)</SPAN>涨停。洲际交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>(ICE)</SPAN>基准<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月期棉价格<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="17" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>17</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>收盘上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>美分，至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.9212</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅。盘中交投区间为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.85</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.9212</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、工信部公布数据显示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-2</SPAN>月纺织行业增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>10.7%</SPAN>，比去年<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月份回落<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.7</SPAN>个百分点。主要产品中，化纤、布分别增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>18.3%</SPAN>和<SPAN lang=EN-US>13.9%</SPAN>，减缓<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.4</SPAN>个和<SPAN lang=EN-US>9.7</SPAN>个百分点；纱产量增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>15.3%</SPAN>，加快<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.1</SPAN>个百分点；服装增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>14.6%</SPAN>，减缓<SPAN lang=EN-US>5.6</SPAN>个百分点。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>日，进口棉中国主港报价继续下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>美分。棉价连续大幅下挫对现货市场影响不小，棉商反映近期的销售比较困难，纺织厂的违约情况较多。日本地震和海啸对市场造成了较大的心理影响，棉花价格也出现恐慌性下跌。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>30641</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，与上一交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>177</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>508</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>360</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。截止<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="16" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，全国棉花交易市场业务棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>287837</SPAN>吨，较上一日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1036</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>主产区天气：未来三天，华北南部及其以南大部地区有小到中雨，其中，广西南部、广东等地的部分地区有大雨；新疆北部和西部山区、西北地区中东部、青藏高原东部、川西高原、东北等地小到中雪（雨）或雨夹雪，其中吉林中东部、青海东南部有大雪。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：国内政策面紧缩预期压制棉市，纺织企业采购积极性不高，并不断下调皮棉采购价格。国内现货价格继续小幅下跌，纺企在买涨不买跌的心理下，依旧保持观望态度，短期棉价跌至前期收购价区域，下调空间有所受限。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约收涨，期价减仓回升，短线反抽<SPAN lang=EN-US>30000</SPAN>关口压力，中期维持高位震荡走势。操作上，短线交易，关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>万关口压力。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">连塑<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、中国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月初级形状的塑料进口量环比降<SPAN lang=EN-US>31.19% 2</SPAN>、广东已成为全国最大的塑料工业省份<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格走势平稳。扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>11350</SPAN>，与上一交易日持平。东北亚报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1320——1322</SPAN>美元，东南亚报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1250—1252</SPAN>美元，均无涨跌。市场交投谨慎，成交萎缩。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>10435</SPAN>张，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>145</SPAN>张<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日连塑继续小幅反弹，但仍受制于五日均线，显示短期上方压力仍较大。基本面上，日本强震令经济受损令市场产生恐慌，但<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格坚挺则对其产生一定的支撑。且经连续大幅回落，连塑短期也有反弹要求，昨夜国际原油大幅回升，预计将推动商品走出反弹行情，操盘上，投资者逢回落可短多操作。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>2 PVC<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、中国塑料制品业十年翻两番<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、我国烯烃原料仍需大量进口<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货市场走势不一。<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFR</SPAN>远东报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1132</SPAN>美元，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>美元。华东乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8200</SPAN>元，华东电石法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7700</SPAN>元，均与昨日持平。西北电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300</SPAN>元，华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3850</SPAN>元，无涨跌。市场成交清淡。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>26</SPAN>张，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>49</SPAN>张<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>窄幅震荡，成交与持仓均大幅萎缩，显示短期弱势依旧。基本面上，日本强震令其经济受损打压了市场的做多信心，需求复苏缓慢也对其形成一定的压力。但外盘走势坚挺将对其产生一定的支撑。昨夜国际原油大幅回升，预计将推动商品走出反弹行情，操盘上，建议投资者逢回落可短多操作。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR>3 PTA<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油小幅收高，利比亚及巴林等国延续紧张局势，供应担忧再次升温，<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 4</SPAN>月原油期货上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.8</SPAN>美元，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>97.98</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、中海油位于惠州的<SPAN lang=EN-US>84</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年的<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>于<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="1" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>检修，预计检修<SPAN lang=EN-US>4-6</SPAN>周，公司计划推迟启动由<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月至<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、日本地震对日本国内的大部分<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>装置影响不大，日本三井位于岩国的<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>装置继续保持满负荷运行，但该公司已经暂停<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>的出口，此前该公司<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>出口到中国的货源占出口总量的<SPAN lang=EN-US>20%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货价格：华东<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场气氛转好，现货报盘涨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>11550-11600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，买家询盘积极，市场主流商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11500-11520</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近展开，此价位有实盘达成。亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场气氛上扬，台产货报盘涨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1525-1530</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，买家还盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1515</SPAN>美元，主流商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1515-1520</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，实盘稀少。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>8312</SPAN>张，较上一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>29</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>700</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：日本地震造成商品市场的抛售气氛趋于缓和，日本地区<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>装置停产推动<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>价格大幅上涨，<SPAN lang=EN-US> PTA</SPAN>生产商利润较前期缩窄，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>工厂检修计划增多，这限制了<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>调整空间，短期<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>维持震荡局面；<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场气氛回升，优质现货卖方低价位有所惜售，买家询盘积极。江浙涤丝市场整体稳定，部分适度优惠促销，个别小幅下调，终端织造刚性备货需求试探性补仓；聚酯切片盘整为主，实际成交不多。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA1105</SPAN>合约震荡收高，期价受<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日线支撑止跌回升，短线上试<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日线压力，延续高位震荡走势。操作上，回落短多交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">沪胶<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>TOCOM</SPAN>橡胶期货周四上涨，此前一度上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.5%</SPAN>，尽管日本股市下滑，受过去几日的供应面消<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>息支撑。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、汽车行业<SPAN lang=EN-US>--</SPAN>日本灾后重建对商用车的需求凸显；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、泰国原料批发市场价格飙升。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：目前云南标一胶市场参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>34600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，海南国营全乳胶参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>34200-34500 </SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，越南<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="3" UnitName="l"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3L</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>胶在<SPAN lang=EN-US>35000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右（<SPAN lang=EN-US>13%</SPAN>票），昨日市场价格略显平稳，部分贸易商依旧封盘观望，市<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>场成交有限。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>亚洲各橡胶主产区天气预报如下：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>曼谷<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阴<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="28" UnitName="℃">28℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="20" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>20℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>越南<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>河内<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>小到中雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="15" UnitName="℃">15℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="9" UnitName="℃">9℃</st1:chmetcnv> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>胡志明市<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="31" UnitName="℃">31℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="24" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>24℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>马来西亚<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>吉隆坡<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="33" UnitName="℃">33℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="24" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>24℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>印尼<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雅加达<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="32" UnitName="℃">32℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="25" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>25℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>30210</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>475</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：日本地震引发日胶大幅下跌，而泰国政府计划干预橡胶市场以支撑胶价，加上主产国的暴雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>天气和面临停割，都给天胶市场带来了一定的支撑，胶价短期或趋于稳定，但具体走势还待周边局势的进一<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>步明朗。从盘面来看，昨日沪胶<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约冲高回落，显示上方压力依然较大，短期料有所反复，建议投资者<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>日内操作为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR>5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：纽约商业交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>(NYMEX)</SPAN>原油期货<SPAN lang=EN-US>17</SPAN>日收盘飙升，突破每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>101</SPAN>美元，因日本称控制受损核电<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>厂危机取得进展，同时西方国家似乎接近干预利比亚。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月成品油消费量环比小幅回落；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、俄石油出口税上调<SPAN lang=EN-US>16.08</SPAN>％。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>17</SPAN>日黄埔到岸价，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>657.97</SPAN>美元，到岸贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>14-15</SPAN>美元，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>380 </SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>640.60</SPAN>美元。华南混调油最新交易估价：船用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>交易过驳价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4770-4780</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；库提价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4780- 4790</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价持平，国产锅炉用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>交易价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4490-4540</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>518800</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>4500</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：由于日本核电站受到破坏，后期使用原油发电的预期提振了国际原油价格企稳回升，沪油跟<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>随止跌回稳，但核污染带来的影响依然使得金融市场恐慌持续。目前华南燃料油现货市场各商家对后市看法<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>不一，虽然外盘走势不稳，但调油料资源紧张价格高位支撑大部分商家报价挺稳抗跌，渣油、非标油市场报<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>价平稳。昨日沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约企稳反弹，但上方受阻于<SPAN lang=EN-US>4700</SPAN>一线的压力，预计短期震荡于<SPAN lang=EN-US>4600-4700</SPAN>，建议区<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>间操作。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">股指期货</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">瑞达期货：情绪渐稳，多头有望重抬升势<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>道琼斯<SPAN lang=EN-US> 11774.59 161.29 1.39%<BR></SPAN>纳斯达克<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2636.05 19.23 0.73%<BR></SPAN>标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500 1273.72 16.84 1.34%<BR></SPAN>富时<SPAN lang=EN-US>100 5696.11 97.88 1.75%<BR></SPAN>德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX 6656.88 143.04 2.20%<BR></SPAN>法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAC40 3786.21 89.65 2.43%<BR>C0MEX</SPAN>黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1404.2 8.1 0.58%<BR>NYMEX</SPAN>原油<SPAN lang=EN-US> 101.42 3.44 3.51%<BR></SPAN>美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 75.991 -0.619 -0.81%<BR></SPAN>小结：周四美股收高，各板块全面上涨。日本处理核辐射危机取得进展，美国经济数据利好，联邦快递发布乐观业绩预期，帮助美股在连续三个交易日下跌之后反弹。欧洲股市周四收高，结束了连续<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>个交易日下跌的趋势，投资者开始买进保险与工业相关股票，他们认为日本地震导致许多股票超卖。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1. </SPAN>央行重掌公开市场操作主动权，准备金率上调预期降低；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2. </SPAN>谣言引发抢购碘盐现象，发改委称坚决打击造谣惑众哄抬食用盐价格等违法行为；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3. </SPAN>国务院七措施开展粮食增产行动<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>加强水利建设；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>4. </SPAN>日元对美元汇率创历史新高，<SPAN lang=EN-US>G7</SPAN>集团可能默许日本干预汇率市场；<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR>5</SPAN>．美上周初请失业金人数减少至<SPAN lang=EN-US>38.5</SPAN>万人；美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月份<SPAN lang=EN-US>CPI</SPAN>上升<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.5%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>6. </SPAN>印度央行加息<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>个基点至<SPAN lang=EN-US>5.75%</SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>符合此前市场预期；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>7. </SPAN>联合国授权对利比亚采取军事行动；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>8. Key Private Bank</SPAN>机构首席市场策略师<SPAN lang=EN-US>Bruce McCain</SPAN>称：一段时间之后，市场自己也觉得情绪悲观过头了。并且美国公布的经济数据仍很强劲，尤其是今天早间公布的领先经济指标指数，该指数不仅很强劲，而且正在加速增长。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>持仓分析<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="17" Month="3" Year="2011"><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="17" Month="3" Year="2011">3<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月17</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>前</SPAN></st1:chsdate>20</SPAN>名多头主力持单（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>14771</SPAN>手，空头主力持仓（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>18418</SPAN>手，净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>3647</SPAN>手，净空持仓减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>310</SPAN>手。其中：前<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>名主力机构净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>5558</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>日本核危机仍困扰市场，期指地位振荡，多空主力持续增仓对垒。多头增仓多在长期看好后市或低位建仓；而空头增仓意在打压后市，因核危机预期影响较难估计。从持仓变动来看，净空持仓较前几个月有所减弱，空头压力有所减弱，整体向好。结合中东动荡局势升级和日核危机可能扩大，将加剧市场动荡，期指调整或将延长。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>新晋主力合约<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>周四报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3225.0</SPAN>点，预计周五<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>合约运行区间在：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3250-3180</SPAN>点之间。如上方冲破<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3250 </SPAN>点可以小多，止损下设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点；如下方破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3180</SPAN>点，可以介入空单，止损上设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点。如在区间内窄幅震荡，可以高空低多的策略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>合约名称<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>HS 300 3280 3250 3180 3150<BR>IF1103 3280 3250 3180 3150<BR>IF1104 3300 3270 3300 3170<BR>IF1106 3340 3310 3340 3210<BR>IF1109 3380 3350 3380 3250<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">『免责声明：期市瞬息万变，盘中突发消息也将影响走势突变，投资人应盘
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