<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">金属产品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>本周三国际金价小幅反弹，弱势整理，市场仍沉浸在前期恐慌性抛售的影响中，<SPAN lang=EN-US>Comex</SPAN>金<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月开盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>1495.4</SPAN>，最高触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>1406.6</SPAN>，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>1392.6</SPAN>，收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>1396.1</SPAN>，成交<SPAN lang=EN-US>140097</SPAN>手，持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>243356</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>． 美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月生产者物价指数月比上升<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.6%</SPAN>预期中值月升<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.7%<BR>2</SPAN>． 欧元区<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月消费者物价指数月率修正为上升<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.4%</SPAN>预期中值月升<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.4% <BR></SPAN>期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> <st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="16" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on">3<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月16</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>沪金1106</SPAN></SPAN>合约早盘大幅低开<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.88</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克至<SPAN lang=EN-US>301.47</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，日内最高<SPAN lang=EN-US>297.10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>295.55</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，收盘下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.21</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.07%</SPAN>，成交量<SPAN lang=EN-US>13982</SPAN>手，较上一个交易日有所减少，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>45652</SPAN>手，减仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>2128</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>ETF</SPAN>持仓方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>全球最大的黄金上市交易基金<SPAN lang=EN-US>(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust</SPAN>表示，其黄金持仓量截至<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="16" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>维持<SPAN lang=EN-US>1,217.30</SPAN>吨，较上一个交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.56</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>周三金融市场仍处在对日本核扩散的担忧中，国际金价自低位弱势反弹整理，市场前期投机头寸大量平仓离场继续打压金价。目前来看，此次金价大幅下挫主要受高位获利盘打压所致，整体上资金面仍偏多，中期上行趋势仍维持良好，短线金价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1350-1370</SPAN>区域消化获利盘后仍有望再次上行。操作上，期金短线仍可轻仓沽空，中线进入<SPAN lang=EN-US>294-291</SPAN>一线可分批介入多单。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">锌、铝<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜，伦锌放量下挫，期价收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日均线之上，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2306</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.65%</SPAN>；伦铝延续跌势，<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线被有效击穿，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2467</SPAN>美元，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.24%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月新屋开工数月比下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>22.5% 2.</SPAN>世界金属统计局<SPAN lang=EN-US>:2010</SPAN>年全球铝市场供应过剩<SPAN lang=EN-US>577,000</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17600-17700</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，与上交易日持平，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>445-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>345</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17550-17650</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，保持平稳，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>495-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>395</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>A00 </SPAN>铝报在<SPAN lang=EN-US>16380-16400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，升水<SPAN lang=EN-US>10-</SPAN>升水<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>库存方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>733575</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>275</SPAN>吨，上海交易所锌期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>305611</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>573</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铝库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4620450</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>4475</SPAN>吨，上海交易所铝期现货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>275478</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>3755</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>观点总结：基本面上，供求过剩的局面尚未改变。资金面上，沪铝主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单增加至近<SPAN lang=EN-US>8000</SPAN>手；沪锌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1106</SPAN>合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单增至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.4</SPAN>万手以上。整体来看，锌铝净空单数量仍处于高位，资金操作偏空。技术显示，沪锌止跌反弹，但预计空间有限；沪铝再度出现止跌信号，仍需下交易日走势确认。操作建议：沪锌依托<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日均线做空；沪铝逢高抛空。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="8" UnitName="mm"><SPAN lang=EN-US>8mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="20" UnitName="mm"><SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4900</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>(1) </SPAN>日本地震震动煤炭市场，短期需求或降超<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>成；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) </SPAN>中国钢铁企业首发<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>绿色采购指南<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>推动产业链升级；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) </SPAN>今年新建廉租住房中央预算内投资计划<SPAN lang=EN-US>350</SPAN>亿元；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(4) </SPAN>印度粉矿<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="16" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>指数参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>171</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2102</SPAN>吨，持平。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>小结：周三<SPAN lang=EN-US>RB1110</SPAN>合约突破<SPAN lang=EN-US>4800</SPAN>关口压力。日本地震消息扭转国内钢市颓势，<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>震动<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>市场信心，钢价继续走高，但隔夜巴林局势及日本核危机再次让外围市场引起担忧，因此，在看涨的同时仍应注意仓位控制。操作上建议，日前多单止赢上移至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4800</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铜<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：隔夜伦铜于晚间<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>：<SPAN lang=EN-US>00</SPAN>之后，开始自高位<SPAN lang=EN-US>9382</SPAN>持续回落，尾盘仅涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.03%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9230</SPAN>，低于昨日<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>：<SPAN lang=EN-US>00</SPAN>沪铜收盘时的<SPAN lang=EN-US>9292</SPAN>。昨日铜价冲高回落，表明上方反弹受阻，因日本核危机继续引爆市场恐慌情绪。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>各国官员相继发表谈话称日本核电站局势或继续恶化，从而使得全球对核危机的恐慌情绪弥漫市场，因市场现金回流需求不断上升，全球资本市场表现不佳。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>中东地区动乱依旧，推动了避险情绪的升温，有报道称巴林在宣布国际进入紧急状态后不久即引发了反对派与政府在首府麦纳麦的强烈冲突，再次引发国际市场忧虑。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：上海金属网铜现货报价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>69400-69700</SPAN>，较昨日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>300</SPAN>元，现货较期货升水<SPAN lang=EN-US>75</SPAN>，表明在铜价下跌过程中，现货较期货抗跌；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.55-7.60</SPAN>，比价小幅回升，表明今日上涨，沪铜表现强劲。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="16" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>伦铜库存增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1025</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>426975</SPAN>，目前注销仓单占库存比处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.81%</SPAN>，继续下滑且仍处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>之下，再结合伦铜库存的季节性变化，预计后期库存有望继续增加。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：昨日亚洲市铜价演绎了超跌反弹行情，但晚间在市场对日本核危机的担忧不断上升的打压下，铜价冲高回落，显示其反弹受阻。另外昨日需要引起注意的是<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>日伦铜持仓量大幅减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>13236</SPAN>，此前一次较大幅度的减仓是在<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="2" Day="16" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，虽然<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="2" Day="17" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>17</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>铜价小幅企稳，但之后铜价又继续下跌。此次持仓量的大幅减少，而<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="16" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>铜价又出现反弹，表明此次反弹可能是由空头平仓所引起的上涨，因此后期如果资金没有再度进场的话，反弹行情料难以维持，因此建议投资者此次谨慎看多，今日沪铜<SPAN lang=EN-US>1106</SPAN>合约料开至<SPAN lang=EN-US>69700</SPAN>附近，下方继续关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>68500-69000</SPAN>的支撑。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>1 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>当天在日经指数大幅反弹的激励下，包括原糖在内的多数商品大幅高开冲高，但市场仍然对核危机感觉担忧，各商品<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>纷纷震荡回落，抹去早盘大部分涨幅。连续大跌后，周三<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>美国＃<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>原糖期货市场出现反弹，但因市场忧虑未除，反弹幅<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>度有限。其中<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月合约收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>25.85</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅，全天上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>个占。<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>月合约收于美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅，全天下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>203</SPAN>个点。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、高糖价刺激巴西食糖生产<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 2</SPAN>、印度甘蔗收购价提高至<SPAN lang=EN-US>145</SPAN>印度卢比<SPAN lang=EN-US>/<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="100" UnitName="千克">100<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>千克</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv> <BR></SPAN>国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>国内现货小幅下调，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7100</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2247</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>926</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内主产区天气情况：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>两天内，全区阴天有小到中雨，局部有中到大雨。<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>南宁市<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>今天白天到晚上，阴天有小雨，东北风<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-2</SPAN>级，最高<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="10" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>10℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>，最低气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="7" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>7℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约对过度偏离短期均线进行技术性修正，<SPAN lang=EN-US>6800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨也暂时形成支撑，短线或有反弹。操作上，空单离场，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>等待反弹再行抛空。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">油脂：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：受日经指数反弹支撑，<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>豆油冲高回落表现较弱<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>52.96</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅；追随其它大宗商品价格走软，<SPAN lang=EN-US>BMD</SPAN>棕榈油期货下探回升，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月合约上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>73</SPAN>令吉收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3347</SPAN>令吉<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；价格上扬行动与价值严重超卖并需要向上修正有关，<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>加拿大油菜籽期货主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月合约上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.90</SPAN>加元，报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>538.90</SPAN>加元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>公吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息：国际方面，船运调查机构<SPAN lang=EN-US>ITS</SPAN>表示，马来西亚<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1- 15</SPAN>日棕榈油出口较上月同期下滑<SPAN lang=EN-US>17%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>526407</SPAN>吨，高于此前市场<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>预期棕榈油出口量的<SPAN lang=EN-US>531000</SPAN>吨。国内方面，散装食用油安全隐<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>患多，质量无法保障，目前，北京、上海、南京、西安等地都<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>已经开始禁售散装食用油。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货：昨日油脂现货报价继续普遍下滑，约为<SPAN lang=EN-US>50-200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>，沿海四级豆油约为<SPAN lang=EN-US>9700-9900</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；港口棕榈油报价集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US> 9050-9500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；国内四级菜油出厂价格处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>9800-10400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单：豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>7125</SPAN>张；棕榈油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>张；均无变化。菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US> 14144</SPAN>张，较上一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>155</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：从周线上来看，国内油脂已经跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>周均线支<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>持；就日线而言，在前期低点附近有小幅支撑，昨日的反弹回<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>补跳空缺口也正是有逐渐企稳的表现。日本地震对于整体市场<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>的影响在短期内难以消除，就目前而言，国内油脂短期有望反弹，震荡交易为宜。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期棉收在近三周低位，因与日本核危机相关的不确定性引发商品市场抛售。指标<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE-5</SPAN>月期棉合约下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>5.82</SPAN>美分，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>185.12</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、农业部近期全国农民种植意向调查显示，今年主要农作物种植结构呈现<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>三增两减<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>态势，即粮食、棉花、蔬菜面积增加，油料、糖料面积持平略减。在连续三年面积较大幅度调减后，今年棉花面积有望扭转下滑态势，实现恢复性增加。预计今年全国棉花意向种植面积增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>5.4%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>日，进口棉中国主港报价大幅下挫，各品种普遍下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>5-7</SPAN>美分。据了解，国际棉价波动频繁对现货市场有一定冲击，近期部分纺织企业取消了前期的美棉订单，棉商也反映近期的销售不够给力，询价多集中在明年一季度。由于当前国际棉价仍明显高于国内棉价，进口棉销售面临阻力。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>30818</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，与上一交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>177</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>488</SPAN>张，较上一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>382</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。截止<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="15" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，全国棉花交易市场业务棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>286801</SPAN>吨，较上一日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>36</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>主产区天气：未来三天，新疆北部、青藏高原东部、内蒙古东部、东北地区中北部等地的部分地区有小到中雪（雨）或阵雪，其中，新疆北部局地有暴雪。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：日本核危机恶化造成投资人出脱仓位，美棉反弹受阻继续下跌。国内政策面紧缩预期压制棉市，下游棉纱出货不畅。国内现货价格小幅下跌，山东魏桥连续两天分别下调采购价格<SPAN lang=EN-US>500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级皮棉采购价格降至<SPAN lang=EN-US>29500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，市场整体成交清淡，短期棉价跌至前期收购价区域，下调空间有所受限。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约小幅反弹，期价受<SPAN lang=EN-US>28000</SPAN>一线支撑止跌回升，短线反抽<SPAN lang=EN-US>30000</SPAN>关口压力，中期维持高位调整走势。操作上，依托<SPAN lang=EN-US>30000</SPAN>关口轻仓短空。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">谷物：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、根据美国农业部的一个分支部门预测，明年玉米库存将会重建到超过<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>亿蒲式耳，因为乙醇产量将会下降。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、据高盛集团表示，农产品期货价格近来大幅上涨，目前来看可能已经见顶，因为全球供应预计要高于早先预期。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、国内稻谷现货市场在春节过后，购销依旧较为清淡，现货走势相对平稳，关注后期的播种情况。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米期货继续下跌，市场仍在担忧需求方面的利空，因日本是美玉米的最大进口国。<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米：<SPAN lang=EN-US>616.5</SPAN>美分，<SPAN lang=EN-US>-19.5</SPAN>；外盘玉米近期持续走低，前期利多利空转变，期价需要重新评估目前的价位。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货价格：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、山东德州小麦价格比较稳定，面粉厂收购价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2140-2160</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贸易商收购价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2120</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>-2080</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，价格比较平稳。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2</SPAN>、华南地区早籼稻价格稳定在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2160-2170</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>江西乐平地区地区价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，安徽合肥稳定在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2060</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3</SPAN>、国内玉米现货价格局部趋于振荡，广东港口玉米报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2280-2290</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，山东淄博深加工企业收购价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2140</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，小幅回落<SPAN lang=EN-US>10-20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>. <BR></SPAN>操作提示：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>玉米：外盘跌停，玉米低开，但随后走强，从图形上，期价调整随时可能结束，但是期价短期还是要关注外盘走势，一旦外盘企稳，期价有望迎来强势。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>郑麦：期价低开高走，特别是在尾盘期价快速拉升，最终收涨，从近期走势看，期价将是一个震荡偏强的格局。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>早籼稻：期价低开高走，震荡反弹的格局持续，前期的低点支撑有效，近期仍可持有偏多思路<SPAN lang=EN-US>.<BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">大豆豆粕：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、巴西第二大港口巴拉那瓜港因周末的强降雨导致谷物出口停止，油世界称降雨或导致巴西大豆产量下滑<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>万吨左右。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>CBOT</SPAN>大豆期货大幅收高，摆脱地震带来的利空影响，市场重新审视巴西不利天气等利多因素。<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>大豆：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1287</SPAN>美分，<SPAN lang=EN-US> +17<BR></SPAN>现货价格：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>由于近期美豆继续下跌，按此期价核算的进口大豆成本同样下滑，<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月船期的巴西大豆价格今天核算在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4250</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。港口大豆的分销价格稳定在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4150</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，黑龙江佳木斯国产大豆的收购价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>豆粕现货价格继续走弱，沿海地区价格已经达到了<SPAN lang=EN-US>3050</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，山东地区在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3000-3050</SPAN>有成交，广西防城港价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>盘面分析：国内的盘面表现较强，在外盘跌停的情况下，内盘低开的幅度并不大，虽然盘中一度下行，但尾盘很快拉起。而大豆和豆粕的走势有所分化，大豆表现强势，而豆粕表现相对疲软，这主要是由于豆一为国产大豆，而豆粕和豆油基本为进口大豆压榨而成。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>操作建议：从盘面看，内盘表现出了良好的抗跌性，使得整体的趋势没有被破坏。笔者认为，在短暂的恐慌后，期价将会企稳，前期的多单可继续持有，激进投资者可选择加仓短线多单。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">连塑<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、日本强震<SPAN lang=EN-US> 23%</SPAN>的乙烯产能被关闭<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、湖北屯仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>PE</SPAN>管道项目开工<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格走势平稳。扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>11350</SPAN>，与上一交易日持平。东北亚报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1320——1322</SPAN>美元，东南亚报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1250—1252</SPAN>美元，均无涨跌。市场交投谨慎，成交萎缩。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>10580</SPAN>张，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1489</SPAN>张<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日连塑探底回升，下方<SPAN lang=EN-US>11150</SPAN>暂时这其提供了一定的支撑。基本面上，日本强震令经济受损，原油大幅跳水令市场产生恐慌，但<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格坚挺则对其产生一定的支撑。且经连续大幅回落，短线也有一定的反弹要求，能否就此止跌，仍有待观察。操作上，建议投资者暂以日内交易为主<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>2 PVC<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、今年东南亚<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>需求可望增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>5% 2</SPAN>、宁夏青铜峡新材料基地成功引进<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>亿氯碱化工项目<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货市场走势不一。<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFR</SPAN>远东报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1122</SPAN>美元，与昨日持平。华东乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8200</SPAN>元，华东电石法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7700</SPAN>元，均小跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元，西北电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300</SPAN>元，华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3850</SPAN>元，无涨跌。市场成交清淡。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>75</SPAN>张，与昨日持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>探低走高，盘中波动剧烈。成交量大幅回落，显示下方承接较为有力。基本面上，原油大幅回落、日本强震令其经济受损打压了市场的做多信心，需求复苏缓慢也对其形成一定的压力。但外盘走势坚挺将对其产生一定的支撑。技术上看<SPAN lang=EN-US>7900</SPAN>元附近有一定的支撑。且经连续回落，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>短线有一定的反弹要求。基本面多空交织，建议投资者暂以日内交易为宜。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 PTA<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油小幅收高，利比亚及巴林等国延续紧张局势，供应担忧再次升温，<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 4</SPAN>月原油期货上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.8</SPAN>美元，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>97.98</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、受日本强震影响，新日本石油能源公司关闭了其位于茨城县鹿岛市联合产能为<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年的对二甲苯装置和位于川崎联合产能为<SPAN lang=EN-US>35</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年的对二甲苯装置。另外该公司旗下还有<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>家炼厂关闭：<SPAN lang=EN-US>14.5</SPAN>万桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>日仙台炼厂、<SPAN lang=EN-US>18.9</SPAN>万桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>日鹿岛炼厂和<SPAN lang=EN-US>27</SPAN>万桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>日根岸炼厂。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、厦门翔鹭石化产能<SPAN lang=EN-US>160</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年的<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>装置运行正常，公司计划<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月中旬对该装置进行为期<SPAN lang=EN-US>4-5</SPAN>天左右的停车检修，检修期间合约货供应不受影响。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货价格：华东<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场行情盘整，现货报盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，下游拿货态度谨慎，市场主流商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11400-11450</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近展开，实盘稀少。亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场气氛清淡，台产货报盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>1515-1520</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，询盘价位偏低，实际商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1505-1510</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，交易气氛冷清。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>8341</SPAN>张，较上一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>2587</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>600</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：日本地区<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>装置停产推动<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>价格大幅上涨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>工厂检修计划增多，这限制了<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>调整空间，短期<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>维持震荡局面；<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场气氛有所回稳，下游询盘气氛一般。江浙涤丝市场整体稳定，多数厂适度优惠促销，个别则小幅下调百元，下游观望心态依旧；聚酯切片盘整为主，实际成交不多。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA1105</SPAN>合约小幅收涨，期价受<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日线支撑探低回升，短线继续上试<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日线压力，延续高位震荡走势。操作上，回落适当短多。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">沪胶<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>TOCOM</SPAN>橡胶期货<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>日<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>个交易日来首次上涨，因全球最大的轮胎制造商普林斯通公司在日本的<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>三个工厂开工生产，缓解了对日本大地震可能导致需求疲软的担忧。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>ANRPC--</SPAN>日本地震对全球橡胶需求影响有限；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、三大产胶国本周将举行紧急会议<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>寻求支撑<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>胶价方法；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：目前云南标一胶市场参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>34500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，海南国营全乳胶参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>34200-34500 </SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，越南<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="3" UnitName="l"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3L</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>胶在<SPAN lang=EN-US>35000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右（<SPAN lang=EN-US>13%</SPAN>票），今日市场价格略显平稳，部分直接封盘，市场成交有限<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>亚洲各橡胶主产区天气预报如下：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>曼谷<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="28" UnitName="℃">28℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="19" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>19℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>越南<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>河内<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>小到中雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="11" UnitName="℃">11℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="9" UnitName="℃">9℃</st1:chmetcnv> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>胡志明市<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="33" UnitName="℃">33℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="23" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>23℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>马来西亚<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>吉隆坡<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="33" UnitName="℃">33℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="24" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>24℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>印尼<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雅加达<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="32" UnitName="℃">32℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="24" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>24℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>30685</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1200</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：日本地震引发日胶大幅下跌，而泰国政府计划干预橡胶市场以支撑胶价，加上主产国的暴雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>天气和面临停割，都给天胶市场带来了一定的支撑，胶价短期或趋于稳定，但具体走势还待周边局势的进一<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>步明朗。从盘面来看，昨日沪胶<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约期价企稳反弹，但上方压力依然较大，短期料有所反复，建议投资<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>者日内操作为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：受中东紧张局势提振，<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油期货<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>日收盘上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.8%</SPAN>，至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>97.98</SPAN>美元，但日本核电厂<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>危机限制油价涨势。四月原油期货合约结算价涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>80</SPAN>美分，至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>97.98</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.8%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>布伦特原油期货<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.10</SPAN>美元，至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>110.62</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>2%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>IEA</SPAN>：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月份全球石油供应创新高达<SPAN lang=EN-US>8800</SPAN>多万桶；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、阿塞拜疆预计今年石油产量将达<SPAN lang=EN-US>5155 </SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>日黄埔到岸价，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>667.44</SPAN>美元，到岸贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>14-15</SPAN>美元，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>380 </SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>648.72</SPAN>美元。华南混调油最新交易估价：船用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>交易过驳价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4770-4780</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；库提价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4780- 4790</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价持平，国产锅炉用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>交易价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4490-4540</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>523300</SPAN>吨，不变。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：由于世界第三大原油消费国日本发生强震并引发海啸，市场担忧受此影响原油需求将减少，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>原油遭遇重挫回到<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>美元以下，沪油也因此受到拖累。目前华南燃料油现货市场因受外围局势影响，区内<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>行情不容乐观，整体交投黯淡，后市将继续关注外盘走势，非标油市场供应不多使得价格稳中有涨。昨日沪<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>油<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约期价一度下探至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4600</SPAN>，在买盘推动下有所反弹，但短期或仍延续弱势，后市关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>4600</SPAN>一线的支撑<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>，建议区间操作。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">股指期货</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">瑞达期货：市场情绪趋稳，多空今日或对峙<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>道琼斯<SPAN lang=EN-US> 11613.30 -242.12 -2.04%<BR></SPAN>纳斯达克<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2616.82 -50.51 -1.89%<BR></SPAN>标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500 1256.88 -24.99 -1.95%<BR></SPAN>富时<SPAN lang=EN-US>100 5598.23 -97.05 -1.70%<BR></SPAN>德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX 6513.84 -133.82 -2.01%<BR></SPAN>法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAC40 3696.56 -84.29 -2.23%<BR>C0MEX</SPAN>黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1396.1 0.4 0.03%<BR>NYMEX</SPAN>原油<SPAN lang=EN-US> 97.98 0.80 0.82%<BR></SPAN>美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 76.615 0.182 0.24%<BR></SPAN>小结：周三美股大幅收低，但已摆脱盘中最低点。日本核泄漏状况恶化、中东政局动荡、美国新屋开建数字出现<SPAN lang=EN-US>27</SPAN>年来最大跌幅，令投资者情绪低迷。欧洲股市周三大幅下滑，日本核危机以及葡萄牙信用评级的下调均令投资者感到忧虑。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1.“</SPAN>十二五<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>力求经济增长速度与质量相统一，首次明确居民收入增幅将超<SPAN lang=EN-US>GDP</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2. </SPAN>央行调查显示<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>近半数居民投资偏好基金房地产，<SPAN lang=EN-US>66.1%</SPAN>银行家预期下季货币政策趋紧，居民对物价上涨预期减弱；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3. </SPAN>日本开动印钞机，中国加息预期或因此延迟；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>4. </SPAN>利比亚局势逆转，卡扎菲逼近反对派大本营；<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR>5</SPAN>．原油期货收盘走高，关注日本核危机及巴林局势；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>6. </SPAN>标普：亚洲央行或在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年继续加息；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>7. </SPAN>短期内的经济和生产率增长前景都不容乐观，穆迪下调葡萄牙政府债券评级。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>持仓分析<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="16" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="16" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on">3<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月16</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>前</SPAN></st1:chsdate>20</SPAN>名多头主力持单（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>10929</SPAN>手，空头主力持仓（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>12491</SPAN>手，净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>3519</SPAN>手，净空持仓增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>145</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>日本核危机影响减弱，市场趋稳。因<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1103</SPAN>周五到期，<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1104</SPAN>提前完成移仓换月。多空主力均大幅增仓策略，分歧加剧。多头增仓多在长期看好后市或借地震抄底；而空头增仓意在打压后市，因核危机预期影响较难估计，而且市场再起加息（上调存款准备金率）声。结合基本面和技术面来看，市场仍以振荡调整为主。在核危机未明朗前，投资者应该保持冷静，避免恐慌或急于进场。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>主力合约<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1103</SPAN>周三报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3242.8</SPAN>点，预计周三<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1103</SPAN>合约运行区间在：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3280-3200</SPAN>点之间。如上方冲破<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3280 </SPAN>点可以小多，止损下设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点；如下方破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3200</SPAN>点，可以介入空单，止损上设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点。如在区间内窄幅震荡，可以高空低多的策略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>合约名称<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>HS 300 3300 3280 3200 3180<BR>IF1103 3300 3280 3200 3180<BR>IF1104 3310 3290 3210 3190<BR>IF1106 3350 3330 3250 3230<BR>IF1109 3390 3370 3290 3270<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">『免责声明：期市瞬息万变，盘中突发消息也将影响走势突变，投资人应盘
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