<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">金属产品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">锌、铝<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜，伦锌大幅回升，成交量有所放大，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2323</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.86%</SPAN>；伦铝小幅反弹，日线收阳，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2563</SPAN>美元，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.91%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1. </SPAN>日经指数跌幅超过<SPAN lang=EN-US>5.0% 2.</SPAN>日央行在大地震后宣布进一步放松货币政策<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17500-17600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，与上交易日持平，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>405-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>305</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17450-17550</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，保持平稳，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>455-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>355</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>A00 </SPAN>铝报在<SPAN lang=EN-US>16430-16450</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，平水<SPAN lang=EN-US>-</SPAN>升水<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>库存方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>733925</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>吨，上海交易所锌期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>301859</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>3761</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铝库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4585750</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>4550</SPAN>吨，上海交易所铝期现货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>272168</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>201</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>观点总结：基本面上，供求过剩的局面尚未改变。资金面上，沪铝主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单增加至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>万手以上，增幅明显；沪锌前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名减少至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.8</SPAN>万手以内。整体来看，锌铝净空单数量仍处于高位，资金操作偏空。技术显示，沪锌止跌反弹，但预计空间有限；沪铝有望止跌趋稳，转为弱势震荡。操作建议：沪锌依托<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日均线做空；沪铝震荡思路。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>本周一市场仍然受到日本地震影响，金价高位小幅整理，温和反弹。<SPAN lang=EN-US> Comex</SPAN>金<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月开盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>1420.5</SPAN>，最高触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>1433.4</SPAN>，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>1418.3</SPAN>，收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>1424.9</SPAN>，成交<SPAN lang=EN-US>102550</SPAN>手，持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>268991</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1. </SPAN>欧盟统计局<SPAN lang=EN-US>(Eurostat)</SPAN>公布的数据显示，欧元区<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月工业产出稳步提升。数据显示，欧元区<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月工业产出月率上升<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.3%</SPAN>，预期上升<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.3%</SPAN>；年率上升<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.6%</SPAN>，预期上升<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.4%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 2</SPAN>．沙特周一派部队进驻巴林以帮助平息该国的政治动荡；法国仍在全力推进在利比亚上空设立<SPAN lang=EN-US>"</SPAN>禁飞区<SPAN lang=EN-US>"</SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>卡扎菲<SPAN lang=EN-US>(Muammar Gaddafi)</SPAN>还在和反对力量为了控制战略石油重镇班加西展开战斗<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> <st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="11" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on">3<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月11</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>沪金1106</SPAN></SPAN>合约早盘大幅高开<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.72</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克至<SPAN lang=EN-US>302.60</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，盘中最高触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>302.99</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>300.21</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，收盘上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.38</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.46%</SPAN>，成交量<SPAN lang=EN-US>13776</SPAN>手，较上一个交易日小幅减少，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>48052</SPAN>手，减仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>594</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>ETF</SPAN>持仓方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>全球最大的黄金上市交易基金<SPAN lang=EN-US>(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust</SPAN>表示，其黄金持仓量截至<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="14" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>14</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>维持<SPAN lang=EN-US>1,213.66</SPAN>吨，较上一个交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.82</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>周一市场缺乏重要数据指引，金价仍受日本地震影响温和反弹，而近期仍然动荡不安的中东与北非问题却未能提振避险情绪，技术上看金价仍处于短期高位整理平台内运行，不能站上<SPAN lang=EN-US>1435</SPAN>平台上轨，仍有机会再次下探<SPAN lang=EN-US>1400</SPAN>区域，市场技术卖压仍较重，短期存在继续修正整理要求。操作上，期金短线可适当参考<SPAN lang=EN-US>304-300</SPAN>高抛低吸，严格止损。<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>中线继续等待<SPAN lang=EN-US>295</SPAN>下方的介入机会。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="8" UnitName="mm">8mm</st1:chmetcnv> Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4560</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="20" UnitName="mm"><SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4850</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>(1) </SPAN>煤价微涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>5-10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，煤炭运价指数大涨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) </SPAN>库存年内首降，地震影响刺激螺纹板材需求；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) BDI</SPAN>运价指数下跌，日本地震损及市场人气；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(4) </SPAN>印度粉矿<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="14" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>14</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>指数参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>175</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2102</SPAN>吨，持平。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>小结：周一受日本强震影响市场普遍走弱；但在库存下降，现货价格跌势减缓的支撑下，期钢逆势上涨冲击<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日均线。操作上建议，前期空单止赢出场，短线多单尝试，止损<SPAN lang=EN-US>4650</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铜<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：隔夜伦铜于低位小幅震荡，波动区间为<SPAN lang=EN-US>9092-9249</SPAN>，尾盘微跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.32%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9230</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。在铜价下跌了将近<SPAN lang=EN-US>10%</SPAN>之后，铜价近期跌势有所放缓，但从其持仓量的表现来看，投资者在该价格区间做多信心似乎还不足，因此目前来说铜价下跌风险还未完全解除。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>欧洲现货铜升水本周维持在两年低点，报每吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>美元，约是<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月的一半，贸易商称高价打压来自主要金属消费国中国的兴趣。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>日本去年生产约<SPAN lang=EN-US>152</SPAN>万吨铜，约占全球总产量的<SPAN lang=EN-US>7%</SPAN>，该国铜冶炼厂因电力中断而停产。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：上海金属网铜现货报价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>68600-68900</SPAN>，较昨日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>900</SPAN>元，现货较期货升水<SPAN lang=EN-US>175</SPAN>，表明在铜价下跌过程中，现货较期货抗跌；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.52-7.56</SPAN>，日内比价走势震荡，沪铜今日并未完全跟跌伦铜。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存：<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="14" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>14</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>伦铜库存增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>125</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>426000</SPAN>，目前注销仓单处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.17%</SPAN>，仍处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>之下，再结合伦铜库存的季节性变化，预计后期库存有望继续增加。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：在铜价跌幅达<SPAN lang=EN-US>10%</SPAN>左右后，两市铜价跌势有所放缓，昨日内外铜价均演绎了探底回升的走势。但目前从持仓量的表现来看，此次的止跌反弹力度似乎还不够，因两市持仓量依旧表现为减少，从而表明投资者目前做多的信心还不足，大多选择离场观望为主。国际市场上，日本地震引发的核辐射问题还未完全解除，从而还将继续影响着投资者的风险情绪，今日市场关注美联储的议息会议，美元的表现成为焦点。鉴于以上分析，铜价若想大幅上涨，预计还需几日的震荡消化时间。下方我们仍需关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>9000-9200</SPAN>或<SPAN lang=EN-US>68000-69500</SPAN>区间的支撑<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>1<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期棉跌停，因与日本核危机相关的不确定性引发商品市场抛售。指标<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE-5</SPAN>月期棉合约下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>美分，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>197.94</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、海关最新数据显示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月份我国进口棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>18.42</SPAN>万吨，较上月减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>20.72</SPAN>万吨，减幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>52.93%</SPAN>；同比减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.68</SPAN>万吨，减幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>16.64%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 2</SPAN>、据国家统计局最新统计数据显示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月，我国纺纱产量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>188.9</SPAN>万吨，同比增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>32.14</SPAN>万吨，增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>20.5%</SPAN>；环比减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>16.1</SPAN>万吨，减幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.85%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>-2011</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月，我国纱产量累计为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1377.1</SPAN>万吨，同比增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>131.88</SPAN>万吨，增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>10.59%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-2</SPAN>月，我国纱产量累计<SPAN lang=EN-US>393.9</SPAN>万吨，同比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>15.3%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>31098</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，与上一交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>497</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>23</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>359</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。截止<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="13" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>13</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，全国棉花交易市场业务棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>283160</SPAN>吨，较前一日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>2657</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>主产区天气：未来三天，新疆北部、甘肃中部、华北西北部、内蒙古东北部、川西高原南部、东北地区中北部等地将先后有小到中雪（雨夹雪）或阵雪，其中，新疆沿天山地区的局地有大雪；淮河以南大部地区也将先后出现小到中雨天气，局地有大雨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：日本遭遇强地震袭击导致全球市场剧烈波动，美棉收于跌停。国内政策面紧缩预期压制棉市，下游棉纱出货不畅，郑棉承压调整。国内现货价格小幅下跌，山东魏桥<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>日下调<SPAN lang=EN-US>427</SPAN>级皮棉报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>29300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，其余等级收购价格维持不变；棉企出货意愿增强，但由于纺企观望情绪浓厚，市场整体成交清淡。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约承压下跌，期价跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日线支撑后加速下探，短线维持高位调整走势。操作上，反弹短空交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">大豆豆粕：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、巴西农户加速收割大豆，最大的大豆产区马托格罗索州已经收获了<SPAN lang=EN-US>1900</SPAN>万吨预估产量的<SPAN lang=EN-US>50%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFTC</SPAN>持仓报告显示，在连续的减持后，商品基金重新增持净多头<SPAN lang=EN-US>13693</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>大豆期货收高，基金的买盘使得期价在早盘低开后反弹，但市场的成交比较清淡。<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>大豆：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1340</SPAN>美分，<SPAN lang=EN-US> +5.5<BR> </SPAN>基金买兴重现，但是目前期价的下跌压力仍在，短期能否企稳尚需观察。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货价格：美豆继续下跌，按此期价核算的进口大豆成本同样下滑，<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月船期的巴西大豆价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4420</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。港口大豆的分销价格稳定在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4250-4300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。豆粕现货价格继续下跌，沿海地区价格已经达到了<SPAN lang=EN-US>3200-3250</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。油厂库存压力较大，而养殖市场仍未启动，使得现货走势相当疲软。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>盘面分析：期价继续下跌，上周五外盘大幅下跌，国内开盘后，期价在早盘一度较为抗跌，但午后将跌幅扩大，豆粕<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>一度跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，而豆油<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月和<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月合约也顺利跌破万元关口，大豆早盘一度表现较强，但午后在周边市场的跌势下，期价扩大了跌幅。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>从技术图形看，本轮调整将上波上涨的涨幅大多抹去，目前需要关注的是期价能否在前期低点附近企稳。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>操作建议：期价继续下跌，新的利空因素特别是日本地震使得期价调整的压力加大，外盘目前仍未显止跌迹象，但是内盘相对内盘仍较为抗跌。笔者认为目前市场的调整压力仍旧较大，期价的震荡难免，但长线趋势没有改变，建议稳健的投资者仍可继续持有前期多单，控制好仓位；短线熟练者可选择区间短差交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">油脂：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：场内缺少新的消息刺激买兴，<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>豆油延续回调逼<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>近前低，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>55.38</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅；因投资者在上周日本强震<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>和海啸过后寻求避险且中东动乱局势缓解令原油价格承压，<SPAN lang=EN-US>BMD </SPAN>棕榈油期货周一跌至三个半月低点，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月合约下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>29</SPAN>令吉收<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3335</SPAN>令吉<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；因投机帐户继续结清商品仓位，基于围绕日本地震的不确定性因素及其对全球经济的影响，<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>加拿大油菜籽<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>期货主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月合约下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.10</SPAN>加元，报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>555.00</SPAN>加元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>公吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息：加拿大油籽加工商协会<SPAN lang=EN-US>(COPA)</SPAN>数据显示，截至<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>9 </SPAN>日当周，油菜籽压榨量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>117340</SPAN>吨，之前一周为<SPAN lang=EN-US>104809</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2010/11</SPAN>年度迄今为止油菜籽压榨量总计为<SPAN lang=EN-US>3635665</SPAN>吨，高于去<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>年同期的<SPAN lang=EN-US>3518325</SPAN>吨；马来西亚棕榈油局表示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月份马来西亚<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>的棕榈油库存比上月增加了<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.24</SPAN>个百分点，而较之前的预期减<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>少<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.4</SPAN>个百分点，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月份库存量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1478793</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货：昨日油脂现货报价加速下跌，幅度约为<SPAN lang=EN-US>100-250</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/ </SPAN>吨，沿海四级豆油约为<SPAN lang=EN-US>9800-10050</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；港口棕榈油报价集中<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9250-9600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；国内四级菜油出厂价格处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>10000-10500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US> /</SPAN>吨水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单：豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>7325</SPAN>张；棕榈油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>张；均无变化。菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US> 14299</SPAN>张，较上一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>19</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：从周线上来看，国内油脂已经跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>周均线支<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>持；就日线而言，在前期低点附近有小幅支撑。在外盘油脂回<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>调的影响下，预计国内油脂调整回落仍将继续。就目前而言，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>长线趋势暂不明朗，短期震荡偏空交易为宜。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">谷物：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、商品基金继续大幅减持玉米期货上的净多头部位。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、高盛公司分析师表示，目前农产品期货价格面临下跌风险。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、发改委主任张平表示国内小麦的库存有<SPAN lang=EN-US>2000</SPAN>亿斤，几乎相当于一年的小麦产量。<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>、亚洲地区大米价格下跌，延续近期跌势。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米期货上小幅走高，结束了连续六个交易日的下跌走势。<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米：<SPAN lang=EN-US>666</SPAN>美分，<SPAN lang=EN-US>+1.75</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>日本的地震对全球的大宗商品都产生的重大影响，因日本作为第三大经济体，对大宗商品的需求十分庞大，而此次地震损害了日本的短期的经济能力，虽然具体的损失还要评估，但是短期来看，全球大宗商品受压不可避免。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货价格：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、河南郑州小麦价格走势徘徊，面粉厂收购价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2100-2120</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，粮库暂停收购<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、华南地区早籼稻价格稳定在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2160-2170</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>南昌地区价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，安徽合肥稳定在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2060</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、国内玉米现货价格继续上涨。其中：大连港内玉米平舱价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2200-2220</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>操作提示：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>早籼稻：期价在今日走强，摆脱周边市场利空压力，前期的低点支撑有效，近期仍可持有偏多思路<SPAN lang=EN-US>.<BR></SPAN>玉米：外盘持续下跌，但价格仍远高于国内，而国内玉米库存紧张，中储粮存在补库压力。玉米基本面良好，虽然期价跟随周边市场调整，但长线仍需持有看多思路。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>郑麦：国内储备充足，市场近期未有利多提振，但期价在连续的下跌后，有回调的需要，近期操作观望为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>由于日本发生强地震和海啸后灾情恶化引发市场方面担心经济增长和原材料的需求会受到影响，在商品市场普跌的压力下，本周一<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>糖市原糖期货价格下滑至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>周来的最低点。<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>当日<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>期约糖价暴跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>107</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>-3.7%</SPAN>），收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>27.79</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅，成为<SPAN lang=EN-US>UBS</SPAN>期货指数所追踪的<SPAN lang=EN-US>26</SPAN>种商品中跌幅最大的品种，盘中<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>期约糖价下滑至<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="2" Day="25" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>以来<SPAN lang=EN-US>27.41</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅的最低点；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1107</SPAN>期约糖价同时暴跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>84</SPAN>个点<SPAN lang=EN-US>(-3.2%)</SPAN>，以<SPAN lang=EN-US>25.60</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅报收。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、俄罗斯<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月末精炼糖库存量或下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>22% <BR> 2</SPAN>、截至目前仍有<SPAN lang=EN-US>186</SPAN>家糖厂继续生产，收榨糖厂数量达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>74</SPAN>家<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>国内现货小幅下调，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7150</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3021</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1849</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内主产区天气情况：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>今天白天到晚上，桂林、柳州、河池、来宾等市小雨转阴天，我区其它地区阴天有小雨，局部有中雨。湘桂铁路沿线<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>和<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>沿海地区有<SPAN lang=EN-US>5-6</SPAN>级偏北大风。<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>南宁市<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>今天白天到晚上，阴天有小雨，东北风<SPAN lang=EN-US>2-3</SPAN>级，最高气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="18" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>18℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>，最低气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="8" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>8℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约下破<SPAN lang=EN-US>7000</SPAN>后受卖盘涌现抛压影响，继续加速下挫。尾盘以次低价收盘，暗示空头处于的加速势，预计后<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>期仍将向下拓展空间。操作上，中线放空为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>1 PTA<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油微幅上涨，因利比亚国内紧张局势尚未缓和，市场对原油供应担忧不散，<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 4</SPAN>月原油期货上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.03</SPAN>美元，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>101.19</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、三菱日本及宁波<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>及<SPAN lang=EN-US>MEG</SPAN>装置计划<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="20" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="20" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>起</st1:chsdate>停产检修六周。两套装置产能总计六万吨。由于目前国内外市场<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>供应整体偏紧，三菱的检修将会对<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>MEG</SPAN>行情起到较大的推动作用。<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3</SPAN>、中海油位于惠州的<SPAN lang=EN-US>84</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>装置和<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年的<SPAN lang=EN-US>OX</SPAN>装置正在进行例行检修，检修时间从<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="1" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="1" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>起</st1:chsdate>，预计将持续<SPAN lang=EN-US>4-6</SPAN>周时间。<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>JX </SPAN>日矿日石能源确认鹿岛和川崎的<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>装置关停，总计产能<SPAN lang=EN-US>95</SPAN>万吨。据悉已经通知其客户。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货价格：华东<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场行情疲弱，现货报盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，下游拿货稀少，市场主流成交在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，实盘清淡。亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场气氛偏弱，台产货报盘降至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1510</SPAN>美元附近，一单来自宁波台货成交在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1500</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，市场交易气氛清淡。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>10105</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>162</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1423</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：国内政策面紧缩忧虑压制市场，日本强震导致商品市场剧烈波动，同时日本地区<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>装置停产推动<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>价格上涨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>工厂检修计划增多，短期<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>维持震荡局面；<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场气氛疲弱，下游拿货心态谨慎。江浙涤丝市场趋稳，部分工厂滞销品种适度优惠促销，个别下调两百，下游织造采购积极性偏弱；聚酯切片盘整为主，市场表现平淡。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA1105</SPAN>合约小幅收涨，期价处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日线与<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日线区域宽幅波动，短线延续高位震荡走势。操作上，短线交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">连塑<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、日本乙烯厂关闭将推高价格<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、我国人均年塑料消费量<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>年翻番<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格走势平稳。扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>11350</SPAN>，与上一交易日持平。亚洲乙烯则明显回落。东北亚报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1320——1322</SPAN>美元，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>美元。东南亚大跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>35</SPAN>美元，报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>1250—1252</SPAN>美元。市场交投谨慎，成交萎缩。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>12198</SPAN>张，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1286</SPAN>张<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日连塑上窜下跳，终盘以一根带长上影线的中阴线报收，显示其短期走势仍较为疲软。基本面上，原油、乙烯价格高位回调对<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>价格形成一定压制，但现货价格坚挺则对其产生一定的支撑。技术上看，预计近期连塑仍将维持弱势整理格局。建议投资者暂以日内交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 PVC<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、中银电化<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年烧碱及配套项目计划明年投产<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、中国化工集团将继续投资焦作<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>或建乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>项目<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货市场平稳运行。<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFR</SPAN>远东报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1122</SPAN>美元，华东乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8250</SPAN>元，华东电石法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7750</SPAN>元，西北电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300</SPAN>元，华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3850</SPAN>元，均与昨日持平。市场成交仍不活跃。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>549</SPAN>张，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>18</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>冲高回落，尾盘星线报收，显示其短线有一定的反弹要求。基本面上，原油高位回落，下游需求复苏缓慢，市场成交清淡对其形成一定的压力。但外盘走势坚挺将对其产生一定的支撑。技术上看<SPAN lang=EN-US>7900</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>——8000</SPAN>元有一定的支撑。经连续回落，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>短线有一定的反弹要求，操作上，投资者可逢低小幅建多抢反弹。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">沪胶<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>TOCOM</SPAN>橡胶期货跌至<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>个月最低点，因创纪录的大地震导致电力供给中断，迫使汽车制造商暂<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>停汽车生产，使得对需求将放缓的担忧升温。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>IRSG--</SPAN>今年全球橡胶需求料升至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2,610</SPAN>万吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、中国国家统计局周五公布<SPAN lang=EN-US>--2</SPAN>月份轮胎产量<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>同比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>9.7</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：目前云南标一胶市场参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>35500-36000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，海南标一胶参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>35500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>左右，越南<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="3" UnitName="l"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3L</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>胶在<SPAN lang=EN-US>36000-36500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右（<SPAN lang=EN-US>17%</SPAN>票），部分贸易商报价跟随期货市场继续回调，部分直接封<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>盘，市场成交有限。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>亚洲各橡胶主产区天气预报如下：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>曼谷<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="33" UnitName="℃">33℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="26" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>26℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>越南<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>河内<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>小到中雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="21" UnitName="℃">21℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="18" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>18℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>胡志明市<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>晴<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="34" UnitName="℃">34℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="23" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>23℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>马来西亚<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>吉隆坡<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="32" UnitName="℃">32℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="24" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>24℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>印尼<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雅加达<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="32" UnitName="℃">32℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="25" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>25℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>32575</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>625</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：日本地震引发内外盘期胶大跌，日本三大汽车公司丰田、本田和日产均宣布在本月<SPAN lang=EN-US>14</SPAN>日停产，轮胎需求或受到影响。国内现货市场报价跟随期货市场大幅下调，短期沪胶仍面临恐慌性杀跌。从盘面来看，沪胶<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>35000</SPAN>关口，上方压力明显，<SPAN lang=EN-US>boll</SPAN>通道开口放大，短期期价仍面临弱势调整，建议偏空思路对待。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：纽约商业交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>(NYMEX)</SPAN>原油期货<SPAN lang=EN-US>14</SPAN>日收盘基本持平，市场对日本经济活动放慢的担忧拖累<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>市场，但日本需要增加成品油用以发电的预期对油价构成提振。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>OPEC2</SPAN>月石油产量上升至逾<SPAN lang=EN-US>3000</SPAN>万桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>日；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、中国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月原油加工量同比增<SPAN lang=EN-US>11%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>14</SPAN>日黄埔到岸价，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>662.68</SPAN>美元，到岸贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>14-15</SPAN>美元，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>380 </SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>648.78</SPAN>美元。华南混调油最新交易估价：船用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>交易过驳价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4770-4780</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；库提价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4780- 4790</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价下调<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，国产锅炉用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>交易价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4470-4520</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价下调<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>529000</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>2000</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：由于世界第三大原油消费国日本发生强震并引发海啸，市场担忧受此影响原油需求将减少，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>原油表现偏弱，沪油也因此受到拖累。在外盘价格双双下挫的影响下，华南燃料油现货市场终端用户采购兴致低迷，多数贸易商报价继续挺稳，但实际成交价已开始有松动迹象。沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约昨日遭遇重挫，短期测试<SPAN lang=EN-US>4650</SPAN>一线的支撑，建议多看少动，观望为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">股指期货</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">瑞达期货：市场情绪趋稳，期指延续震荡<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>道琼斯<SPAN lang=EN-US> 11993.16 -51.24 -0.43%<BR></SPAN>纳斯达克<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2700.97 -14.64 -0.54%<BR></SPAN>标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500 1296.39 -7.89 -0.60%<BR></SPAN>富时<SPAN lang=EN-US>100 5775.24 -53.43 -0.92%<BR></SPAN>德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX 6866.63 -114.86 -1.65%<BR></SPAN>法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAC40 3878.04 -50.64 -1.29%<BR>C0MEX</SPAN>黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1428.8 7.0 0.49%<BR>NYMEX</SPAN>原油<SPAN lang=EN-US> 101.19 0.03 0.03%<BR></SPAN>美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 76.382 -0.336 -0.44%<BR></SPAN>小结：周一美股收低，但已经远离盘中最低点。在地震导致日本核电站发生爆炸之后，道指成分股<SPAN lang=EN-US>GE</SPAN>与公用事业板块收跌。欧洲股市周一大幅下跌，日本核电站事故引发投资者对核电行业的担忧，<SPAN lang=EN-US>Areva SA</SPAN>与公用事业股<SPAN lang=EN-US>E.On</SPAN>遭受了巨大压力。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1.</SPAN>昨日央行发布数据显示：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月份新增人民币贷款<SPAN lang=EN-US>5356</SPAN>亿，广义货币<SPAN lang=EN-US>(M2)</SPAN>余额<SPAN lang=EN-US>73.61</SPAN>万亿，同比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>15.7%</SPAN>，均低于此前市场预计<SPAN lang=EN-US>6500</SPAN>亿元，月末<SPAN lang=EN-US>M2</SPAN>同比增长为<SPAN lang=EN-US>17.0%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2.</SPAN>温家宝答中外记者问：控制流动性，消除房价物价上涨货币基础，财政、金融、税收三管齐下控房价；<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR>3.2</SPAN>月沪个人房贷增量降<SPAN lang=EN-US>63% </SPAN>开发商加速降价放缓拿地；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>4.</SPAN>日本央行再度注资<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>万亿日元，总额达<SPAN lang=EN-US>18</SPAN>万亿，央行将继续扩大资产收购计划以支持经济。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>5</SPAN>欧元区就应对欧债危机综合方案达成协议：同意增加欧元区救助基金的放贷能力，允许该基金在初级市场购买成员国国债，同时降低了希腊援助贷款利率并延长该国的贷款期限。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>持仓分析<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="14" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="14" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on">3<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月14</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>前</SPAN></st1:chsdate>20</SPAN>名多头主力持单（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1103</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>18898</SPAN>手，空头主力持仓（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1103</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>23253</SPAN>手，净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>4355</SPAN>手，净空持仓减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1008</SPAN>手。其中：前<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>名主力机构净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>9050</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>昨日因受邻国日本地震影响，期指呈小幅震荡格局。因地震影响尚未明朗，部分主力减仓以避险。值得关注的是华泰长城大幅减持空头<SPAN lang=EN-US>1001</SPAN>受，除<st1:PersonName w:st="on" ProductID="国泰">国泰</st1:PersonName>君安之外，其他空头巨头均以减仓为主。持仓动向表明，虽遭受日本地震拖累，但期指支撑力较强，短期市场做多仍是主力。结合技术面和基本面，期指或延续振荡格局。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>主力合约<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1103</SPAN>周一报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3258.4</SPAN>点，预计周二<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1103</SPAN>合约运行区间在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3290-3230</SPAN>点之间。如上方冲破<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3290 </SPAN>点可以小多，止损下设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点；如下方破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3230</SPAN>点，可以介入空单，止损上设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点。如在区间内窄幅震荡，可以高空低多的策略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>合约名称<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>HS 300 3320 3280 3220 3200<BR>IF1103 3320 3290 3230 3210<BR>IF1104 3330 3300 3230 3220<BR>IF1106 3370 3340 3270 3260<BR>IF1109 3400 3370 3300 3290<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">『免责声明：期市瞬息万变，盘中突发消息也将影响走势突变，投资人应盘
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