<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">金属产品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">锌、铝<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜，伦锌探低回升，日线再收小星线，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2280</SPAN>美元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.45%</SPAN>；伦铝出现大幅度补跌，盘中一度跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>日均线，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2540</SPAN>美元，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.86%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>日本汽车三巨头今起全面停产<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>日本财务省官员：若有必要对汇率采取决定性举措的立场没有改变<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17500-17600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上交易日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>430-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>330</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17450-17550</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>480-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>380</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>A00 </SPAN>铝报在<SPAN lang=EN-US>16530-16550</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>90</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>10-</SPAN>升水<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>库存方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>734075</SPAN>吨，较上周增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>14850</SPAN>吨，上海交易所锌期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>346673</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>5627</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铝库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4590300</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>15900</SPAN>吨，上海交易所铝期现货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>421727</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1668</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>观点总结：基本面上，供求过剩的局面尚未改变。资金面上，沪铝主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单维持在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9000</SPAN>手以上，变化甚微；沪锌前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名减少至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.9</SPAN>万手以内。整体来看，锌铝净空单数量仍处于高位，资金操作偏空。技术显示，沪锌低位企稳，下跌空间已经不大，沪铝上方阻力较大，或呈震荡偏弱格局。操作建议：沪锌空单减持；沪铝逢反弹抛空。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>上周五日本里氏<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.9</SPAN>级地震令上周中有所缓和的避险情绪再次升温，现货金价受避险情虚推动强劲反弹，<SPAN lang=EN-US> Comex</SPAN>金<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月开盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>1411.7</SPAN>，最高触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>1423.7</SPAN>，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>1406.0</SPAN>，收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>1421.8</SPAN>，成交<SPAN lang=EN-US>158041</SPAN>手，持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>280580</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1. </SPAN>受到汽油和食品等生活必需品价格上涨的影响，美国密歇根大学<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月消费者信心指数初值从<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月底的<SPAN lang=EN-US>77.5</SPAN>回落至<SPAN lang=EN-US>68.2</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 2</SPAN>．日本东北部海域周五发生的里氏<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.9</SPAN>级地震及其引发的海啸迄今已造成大量人员受伤或失踪；<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> <st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="11" Month="3" Year="2011">3<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月11</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>沪金1106</SPAN></SPAN>合约早盘大幅低开<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.57</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克至<SPAN lang=EN-US>299.89</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，盘中最高触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>300.69</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>299.05</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，收盘下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.34</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.10%</SPAN>，成交量<SPAN lang=EN-US>16716</SPAN>手，较上一个交易日小幅增加，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>48646</SPAN>手，减仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>2174</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>ETF</SPAN>持仓方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>全球最大的黄金上市交易基金<SPAN lang=EN-US>(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust</SPAN>表示，其黄金持仓量截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="11" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>维持<SPAN lang=EN-US>1,215.48</SPAN>吨，较上一个交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.82</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>日本里氏<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.9</SPAN>级地震令上周有所缓和的避险情绪再次升温，现货金价上周五的强劲反弹显示市场情绪较为敏感，任何风吹草动都可能造成价格的大幅震荡，整体上我们仍持谨慎看多看法，资金面上市场多方仍占据主动，此波以投机情绪为主的上行行情仍有望得到延续，但短线操作需保持谨慎，由于前期金价涨幅已较大，如不能重新站上<SPAN lang=EN-US>1430</SPAN>，价格仍有可能继续下探调整，操作上，中线介入多仓可留意<SPAN lang=EN-US>COMEX</SPAN>金<SPAN lang=EN-US>1370-1350</SPAN>区间或沪金<SPAN lang=EN-US>294.5-291</SPAN>区间的支撑，如价格回落此区域可建立多头，目标暂定<SPAN lang=EN-US>310 320</SPAN>，短线交易建议以观望为主，激进者可适当高抛低吸。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="8" UnitName="mm"><SPAN lang=EN-US>8mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4580</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="20" UnitName="mm"><SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4880</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>(1) </SPAN>日本五大钢厂停产，钢价矿价或陷<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>冰火两重天<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) 2</SPAN>月粗钢日均产量达<SPAN lang=EN-US>193.96</SPAN>万吨，创历史新高；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) </SPAN>钢铁业高速增长动力减弱，进口铁矿石量价齐跌；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(4) </SPAN>印度粉矿<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="11" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>指数参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>177</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2102</SPAN>吨，持平。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>小结：周五<SPAN lang=EN-US>RB1110</SPAN>合约继续下行。目前钢市供应压力不减，现货市场出现恐慌性下跌，市场心态失衡，价格十分混乱，但钢材库存在连续上涨数周后上周首次出现小幅回落，短线将测试<SPAN lang=EN-US>4600</SPAN>附近支撑力度。操作上建议，前期空单可继续依托<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线持有，短线追空注意风险。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">4</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">铜</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">外盘：隔夜伦铜继续下挫，</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">个交易日内第四次收跌，但跌幅有所放缓，为下跌</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.58%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">至</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">9226</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美元</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，目前铜价仍旧运行于</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">60</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日均线下方，而其持仓近两日出现增仓现象，表明铜价低位有逢低买盘介入，铜价有机会止跌企稳。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">消息方面：</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。日本两家大型铜冶炼厂因电力中断而停止运营，令人担心铜供应中断，另外日本地震的影响延伸至智利，该国三个港料将于周五暂停活动。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。美国</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值为</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">68.2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，预估为</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">76.5,2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月终值为</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">77.5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。近期美国数据表现不佳，降低了美国加息的预期，从而导致美元走低。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">现货方面：上海金属网铜现货报价为</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">69550-69800</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，较昨日上涨</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">400</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元，现货较期货升水</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">175</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，表明在铜价下跌过程中，现货较期货抗跌；内外比价为</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">7.52-7.54</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，日内比价基本保持不变，沪铜继续选择与伦铜同跌。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">库存：</SPAN><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="11" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">11</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">伦铜库存增加</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">400</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">至</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">425875</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">目前注销仓单处于</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3.4%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，仍处于</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">之下，再结合伦铜库存的季节性变化，预计后期库存有望继续增加。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">观点总结：上周铜价在经过一周的震荡之后，选择破位急速下跌，两市比价在下跌行情中下滑至</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">7.5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">附近，为近期的新低，表明沪铜回天乏力，只能选择跟跌，此前市场炒作的中国铜消费旺季的概念逐步淡化，因国内库存较多，这也解释了</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月中国铜进口量的大幅减少。另外中国</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月的通胀数据显示未来物价水平仍有继续上行的压力，中国紧缩性的货币政策不容松懈。国际宏观环境则相当恶劣，中东政治动乱还未完全平息，而市场又重燃对欧债危机的担忧，日本的地震和核电站爆炸事件雪上加霜。不过目前利多铜价的因素体现在日本地震引起对铜供应的忧虑以及美元的持续走软对商品的支撑。鉴于以上分析，投资者的风险厌恶情绪较高，铜价较难实现很好的上涨，料以低位小幅震荡为主，铜价下方关注</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">9200-9000</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">区间的支撑。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">油脂：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：场内缺少新的消息刺激买兴，<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>豆油大幅下挫，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>55.9</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅；日本遭遇强烈地震给全球经济前景<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>蒙上一层阴影，<SPAN lang=EN-US>BMD</SPAN>棕榈油期货跌至两周低点<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>录得逾两年来最<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>大单周跌幅，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月合约下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>95</SPAN>令吉收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3364</SPAN>令吉<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；因投<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>机性基金大举清算头寸，<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>加拿大油菜籽期货主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月合约下<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>11.80</SPAN>加元，报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>558.10</SPAN>加元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>公吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息：国际方面，<SPAN lang=EN-US>USDA</SPAN>报告显示，当周美国豆油出口量同<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>比下滑；<SPAN lang=EN-US>ITS</SPAN>和<SPAN lang=EN-US>SGS</SPAN>的数据显示，马来西亚棕榈油出口水平有所<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>下滑，市场预计，马来西亚棕榈油库存水平仍将维持低位。国<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>内方面，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月份我国食用植物油进口量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>41</SPAN>万吨，同比小<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>幅增加；国内食用油市场酝酿涨价，传言两会后将提高<SPAN lang=EN-US>10%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>现货：受期货市场持续下跌影响，上周国内油脂现货价格<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>继续明显回落，幅度在<SPAN lang=EN-US>100-300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。沿海四级豆油约为<SPAN lang=EN-US>9950 -10150</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；港口棕榈油报价集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9350-9850</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；国内四<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>级菜油出厂价格处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>10100-10600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单：菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>14318</SPAN>张；豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>7325</SPAN>张；均无变化。棕榈油<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：从周线上来看，国内油脂已经跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>周均线支<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>持，在外盘油脂回调的影响下，国内油脂调整回落仍将继续。<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>就目前而言，长线趋势暂不明朗，短期震荡偏空交易为宜，做<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>多需三个交易日以上反弹行情。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期棉小幅回升，受投资者买盘推动。<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月期棉合约上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.96</SPAN>美分，收报每磅<SPAN lang=EN-US>204.94</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、美国农业部<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月全球棉花供需预测报告显示，与上月相比，报告仅微幅下调了<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010/11</SPAN>年度全球棉花产量和期末库存量。报告下调了中国和印度产量<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>但大部分被澳大利亚和巴西的增产所抵消，因而全球棉花产量仅下调了<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.5</SPAN>万吨。全球棉花消费量没有实质性变化。由于中国大陆产量下降，预计其进口需求会增加，所以全球贸易量轻微上调。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> 2</SPAN>、美国农业部<SPAN lang=EN-US>(USDA)</SPAN>最新公布的棉花出口销售报告显示，截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="3" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>当周，美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010/11</SPAN>年度棉花净销售<SPAN lang=EN-US>83,800</SPAN>包，低于上周的<SPAN lang=EN-US>153,300</SPAN>包；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011/12</SPAN>年度棉花净销售<SPAN lang=EN-US>394,200</SPAN>包，高于上周的<SPAN lang=EN-US>250,000</SPAN>包。当周美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010/11</SPAN>年度棉花出口装船<SPAN lang=EN-US>474,900</SPAN>包，高于上周的<SPAN lang=EN-US>423,300</SPAN>包。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>31108</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，与上一交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>120</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>474</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>375</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。截止<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="9" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，全国棉花交易市场业务棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>280303</SPAN>吨，较前一日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>420</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>主产区天气：未来三天，西南地区大部及黄河以南的大部地区有小到中雨，新疆、青藏高原东部、西北地区中东部、内蒙古西部和东北部、东北地区北部和东部等地的部分地区有小到中雪（雨）或阵雪，其中，新疆北部、内蒙古东北部、黑龙江东部等地的局部地区有大到暴雪。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：美棉探低回升，受<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>周均线支撑出现技术反弹。国内政策面紧缩预期压制棉市，下游棉纱出货不畅，郑棉高位表现较为承压。国内现货价格小幅下跌，棉企出货意愿增强，但由于纺企观望情绪浓厚，市场整体成交清淡。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约承压下跌，期价继续受<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线压制，下方考验<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日线支撑，短线维持高位震荡走势。操作上，短线交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>尽管周五大部分交易时间里<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>糖市原糖期货价格因日本发生大地震并引发海啸导致商品市场普跌而一直在下跌区间运<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>行，但在现阶段全球食糖供给仍偏紧的支撑下，收盘时各期约不仅悉数收复了失地，而且还稍稍上涨。当日<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>期约糖价<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>+0.5%</SPAN>），收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>28.86</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅，盘中<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>期约糖价一度重挫<SPAN lang=EN-US>3%</SPAN>，跌破了<SPAN lang=EN-US>28</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅，至此，过去一周<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>期约<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>糖价已下跌了<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.4%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1107</SPAN>期约糖价同时上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>个点<SPAN lang=EN-US>(+0.1%</SPAN>，以<SPAN lang=EN-US>26.43</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅报收。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、印度：本榨季可以轻易地出口<SPAN lang=EN-US>200</SPAN>万吨食糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 2</SPAN>、截止<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="8" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>广西已有<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>家糖厂收榨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>国内现货小幅下调，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7200</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3353</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1849</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内主产区天气情况：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>今天白天到晚上，桂林、柳州、河池、百色、贺州、来宾、梧州、玉林、贵港等市多云到阴天有小雨，部分地区有中<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雨，我区其它地区多云。今天早上部分地区有雾。南宁市<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>今天白天到晚上，阴转小雨，南转北风<SPAN lang=EN-US>2-3</SPAN>级，最高气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="23" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>23℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>最低气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="14" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>14℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约下破<SPAN lang=EN-US>7000</SPAN>后受卖盘涌现抛压影响，继续加速下挫。尾盘以次低价收盘，暗示空头处于的加速势，预计后<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>期仍将向下拓展空间。操作上，中线放空为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">大豆豆粕：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：农业咨询机构<SPAN lang=EN-US>Celeres</SPAN>表示，南美地区<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010-11</SPAN>年度大豆作物产量将达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.29</SPAN>亿吨，较<SPAN lang=EN-US>Celeres?<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="24" Month="1" Year="2011">1<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月24</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>预估的1.253</SPAN></SPAN>亿吨增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>3%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>USDA</SPAN>报告显示，截止<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="3" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>当周，美国大豆净销售量自前一周上升<SPAN lang=EN-US>14%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>412100</SPAN>吨，但较过去<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>周均值高<SPAN lang=EN-US>60%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2011/2012</SPAN>年度大豆净销售量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>57900</SPAN>吨，较前一周下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>57%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>732700</SPAN>吨，较前<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>周均值低<SPAN lang=EN-US>43%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>外盘：由于全球经济增长存在着不确定性，加之担心地震导致日本商品进口速度放慢，周五<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>大豆期货市场在交易商避险抛售打压下收低。美豆<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月，<SPAN lang=EN-US>1334.5</SPAN>美分，<SPAN lang=EN-US>-21</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货价格：由于美豆期价维持震荡，按此期价核算的<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月船期的巴西大豆价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4480</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，美豆在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。港口大豆的分销价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4250-4300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。黑龙江地区国产大豆收购价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3840-3880</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，油厂压榨有利润，目前收购的积极性较高<SPAN lang=EN-US>.<BR> </SPAN>豆粕现货价格基本稳定，沿海地区价格已经达到了<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨以下，张家港报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3280</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，山东在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3250</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。但是从油厂成本来看，豆粕现货继续下跌的空间已经有限。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>盘面分析：上周五期价继续下跌，但是近两日跌幅要小于外盘，但是整体的弱势仍是明显的，豆类盘中一直偏弱，未有明显的反弹动作，短期空头占据优势。此轮调整到现在，已经把<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月末的反弹幅度大部抹去，期价重新跌到长期均线下方，大豆合约图形上构筑了一个高位盘整的态势，而豆粕合约技术走势更为偏空。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>操作建议：期价持续下跌，这种震荡行情对于趋势交易者来说非常不利，但是交易者在操作中应坚持既定的交易思路。根据笔者判断，目前市场的调整压力仍旧较大，期价的震荡难免，但长线趋势没有改变，建议稳健的投资者仍可继续持有前期多单，控制好仓位；短线熟练者可选择区间短差交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">连塑<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月份中国进口初级形状的塑料<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月份中国出口塑料制品<SPAN lang=EN-US>364,504</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>PET</SPAN>瓶需求有别市场概念<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格走势平稳。扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>11350</SPAN>，东北亚报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1329——1331</SPAN>美元，东南亚报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>1285—1287</SPAN>美元，均与昨日持平。市场交投谨慎，成交萎缩。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>13484</SPAN>张，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1271</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：今日连塑继续弱势整理，持仓锐减，显示目前市场操作谨慎。基本面上，原油高位回调对<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>价格形成一定压制，技术上看，经连续回落，目前塑料已处三角形整理区域下轨，短线有一定的支撑，建议投资者暂以日内交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>PVC<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、华东地区烧碱市场整体平稳<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>部分企业出货略感压力<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、青海盐湖集团建设<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>项目完成投资<SPAN lang=EN-US>31.5437</SPAN>亿元<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货市场走势不一。<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFR</SPAN>远东报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1122</SPAN>美元，华东乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8250</SPAN>元，均与昨日持平。华东电石法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7750</SPAN>元，小跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元。西北电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300</SPAN>元，无涨跌。华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3850</SPAN>元，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元。市场成交仍不活跃。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>567</SPAN>张，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>167</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>继续震荡整理，五日均线对其构成较重的压力。基本面上，下游需求复苏缓慢，市场成交清淡对其形成一定的压力。但外盘走势坚挺将对其产生一定的支撑。技术上看<SPAN lang=EN-US>7900</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>——8000</SPAN>元有一定的支撑。经连续回落，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>短线有一定的反弹要求，操作上，建议投资者手中空单可在此位置减持。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>3 PTA<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油下跌，因日本强震引发需求担忧，<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 4</SPAN>月原油期货下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.54</SPAN>美元，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>101.16</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、大连逸盛产能<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年的<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>装置维持满负荷运行，据悉，此装置计划<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月初开始进行为期三周的扩能改造。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、绍兴远东石化计划在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月份对其三套<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>装置进行检修，其中每套装置产能为<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年，检修时间在一个月左右，三套装置轮流检修，三月至五月期间只运行两套装置，合约用户检修期间合约货将减半供应。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货价格：华东<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场气氛清淡，持货商报盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11550-11600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，低价惜售，市场实际商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11450-11500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近展开，实盘稀少。亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场气氛清淡，台产货报盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>1510-1515</SPAN>美元附近，询盘气氛冷清，实际商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1500-1505</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，韩货商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1490-1495</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>9943</SPAN>张，较上一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>400</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1623</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：国内政策面紧缩忧虑压制市场，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>工厂检修计划增多，盛泽织造厂家将要实行限电政策，短期<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>维持震荡局面；<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场气氛清淡，低价出货意向不大，买家询盘较少。江浙涤丝市场趋稳，下游织造采购积极性偏弱，谨慎观望为主；聚酯切片震荡为主，市场表现平淡。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA1105</SPAN>合约震荡收跌，期价反弹乏力，继续面临<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线压制，短线延续高位整理走势。操作上，短线交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">沪胶<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>TOCOM</SPAN>橡胶期货<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>日收盘下跌，当周创逾两年来最大单周跌幅，因再中国出口增长放缓，美<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>国初次失业金申请人数增加以及西班牙信用评级下调之后，市场担忧需求将变得疲软。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、马来西亚统计局：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月天然橡胶库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>177434</SPAN>吨，产量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>108,787</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、轮胎企业亏<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>损面超<SPAN lang=EN-US>50%</SPAN>，欲扭亏发动新一轮涨价潮。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：云南标一胶市场参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>37000-38000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，海南标一胶参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>37300-37400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/ </SPAN>吨左右，越南<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="3" UnitName="l"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3L</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>胶在<SPAN lang=EN-US>38800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右（<SPAN lang=EN-US>17%</SPAN>票），泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US>3#</SPAN>新胶报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>42600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右（<SPAN lang=EN-US>17%</SPAN>票），小烟胶在<SPAN lang=EN-US> 41900</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右（<SPAN lang=EN-US>17%</SPAN>票），贸易商报价跟随期货市场继续回调，市场观望为主，贸易商出货零散。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>亚洲各橡胶主产区天气预报如下：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>曼谷<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阴<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="33" UnitName="℃">33℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="26" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>26℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>越南<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>河内<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阴<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="18" UnitName="℃">18℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="16" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>16℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>胡志明市<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阴<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="35" UnitName="℃">35℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="23" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>23℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>马来西亚<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>吉隆坡<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="31" UnitName="℃">31℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="24" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>24℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>印尼<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雅加达<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="31" UnitName="℃">31℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="24" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>24℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>33200</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>490</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：目前来看，沪胶延续弱势，现货市场上报价依然混乱，而<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>两会<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>期间政策面因素主导，市场对取消天胶进口关税及国储抛胶的预期增强，短期沪胶面临震荡调整。从盘面来看，周五<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约期价跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>36000</SPAN>一线并下探<SPAN lang=EN-US>35000</SPAN>，后市测试这一位置的支撑力度，跌破则可看低一线，短期建议日内短线操作。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>5<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：纽约商业交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>(NYMEX)</SPAN>原油期货结算价<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>日收盘走低，因日本发生<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.9</SPAN>级大地震的消息引发<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>市场预期，这个全球第三大石油消费国对原油的需求可能下降。四月原油期货合约收盘下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.5%</SPAN>，至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US> 101.16</SPAN>美元，盘中一度跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>布伦特原油期货跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.59</SPAN>美元，至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>113.84</SPAN>美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="26" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>26</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>止四周<SPAN lang=EN-US>OPEC</SPAN>石油日均出口料将减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>32</SPAN>万桶；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、中国国家统计局：中国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月份原油加<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>工量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>3,520</SPAN>万吨，相当于日加工量<SPAN lang=EN-US>921</SPAN>万吨，创纪录新高，较上年同期增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>11%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>日黄埔到岸价，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>666.90</SPAN>美元，到岸贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>14-15</SPAN>美元，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>380 </SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>651.85</SPAN>美元。华南地区混调油市场需求面仍较疲弱，但是由于当地现货资源有限，调油原料较稀少，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>今日稳定为主，多数商家对后市仍持有看涨态度。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>531000</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：原油高位回落，但短期内中东和北非的紧张局势仍将令油价保持高位。目前市场观望情绪依<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>然浓厚，因成本高企，炼厂炼制超出预期少有接货意愿。贸易商方面在高成本支撑下价格仍有上调意愿。沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约周五弱势下行，跌破前期震荡区间，但下方<SPAN lang=EN-US>4750</SPAN>一线存在支撑，短期或维持在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4750-4800</SPAN>区间震荡，建议采取区间交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">股指期货</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">瑞达期货：市场情绪谨慎，期指震荡盘整<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>道琼斯<SPAN lang=EN-US> 12044.40 59.79 0.50%<BR></SPAN>纳斯达克<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2715.61 14.59 0.54%<BR></SPAN>标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500 1304.28 9.17 0.71%<BR></SPAN>富时<SPAN lang=EN-US>100 5828.67 16.62 -0.28%<BR></SPAN>德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX 6981.49 -81.60 -1.16%<BR></SPAN>法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAC40 3928.68 -35.31 -0.89%<BR>C0MEX</SPAN>黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1421.8 10.5 0.74%<BR>NYMEX</SPAN>原油<SPAN lang=EN-US> 101.16 -1.54 -1.10%<BR></SPAN>美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 76.718 -0.519 -0.67%<BR></SPAN>小结：周五美股小幅收高，但本周三大股指跌幅均超过<SPAN lang=EN-US>1%</SPAN>。尽管日本遭受至少<SPAN lang=EN-US>300</SPAN>年来最强烈的地震袭击，但投资者们预测震后重建工作将增加能源、原材料和工业公司的市场需求。受日本地震影响，欧洲周五低收，保险股损失较大。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1. </SPAN>陈德铭：第二批稀土出口配额年内公布；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2. </SPAN>农业部：今年粮食总产要达<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>万亿斤<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>农民增收<SPAN lang=EN-US>7%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3. </SPAN>保障房概念成<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>新宠<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>，建材需求或超预期；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>4. </SPAN>周小川：利率政策需要用，但不能只顾及<SPAN lang=EN-US>CPI;<BR>5. </SPAN>日本大地震转移了投资者对中东与北非动荡局势的注意力，原油连续第四个交易日下跌；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>6. </SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月份零售业销售额重现了<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>个月以来的最快增幅，然而增幅低于预期；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>7. </SPAN>美国国债价格下跌，<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>年期国债收益率升至<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.40%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>8. </SPAN>汤森路透集团和密歇根大学联合发布的<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月消费者信心报告显示，信心指数的初值创下了五个月新低；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>9. </SPAN>日本多座核电站情势危殆<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>福岛核电站或再爆炸；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>10. <BR><BR></SPAN>持仓分析<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="11" Month="3" Year="2011"><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="11" Month="3" Year="2011">3<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月11</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>前</SPAN></st1:chsdate>20</SPAN>名多头主力持单（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1103</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>19937</SPAN>手，空头主力持仓（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1103</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>25074</SPAN>手，净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>5137</SPAN>手，净空持仓减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1001</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>上周五受日本地震影响，股指放量下跌。在多空双方激烈博弈中，二者均采取大幅减仓策略。值得注意的是空头巨头（前<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>名）减仓较为显著，而多头巨头减仓幅度较为缓和。持仓动向表明，股指持仓量小幅下挫，多头主动减仓，后市去世逐渐转为空方。结合成交量情况和基本面，下周一盘中仍存在回调修复空间或振幅较大，应注意控制风险。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>主力合约<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1103</SPAN>上周五报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3250.2</SPAN>点，预计周一<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1103</SPAN>合约运行区间在：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300-3230</SPAN>点之间。如上方冲破<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3300 </SPAN>点可以小多，止损下设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点；如下方破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3230</SPAN>点，可以介入空单，止损上设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点。如在区间内窄幅震荡，可以高空低多的策略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>合约名称<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>HS 300 3350 3290 3220 3200<BR>IF1103 3360 3300 3230 3210<BR>IF1104 3380 3320 3250 3230<BR>IF1106 3420 3360 3290 3270<BR>IF1109 3460 3400 3330 3310<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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