<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">金属产品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>纽约商品期货交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>(COMEX)</SPAN>期金周二小幅收低<SPAN lang=EN-US>, </SPAN>在周一创下纪录高点后，出现获利了结。<SPAN lang=EN-US> Comex</SPAN>金<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月开盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>1432.4</SPAN>，最高触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>1437.2</SPAN>，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>1424.6</SPAN>，收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>1427.2</SPAN>，成交<SPAN lang=EN-US>116286</SPAN>手，持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>304213</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1. </SPAN>利比亚领导人卡扎菲有意通过谈判达成有条件的放弃权力协议，市场参与者开始降低对黄金的投注；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 2. </SPAN>希腊周二的国债发售结果不佳，同时，评级机构频频发难，令市场再度将焦点从此前对欧洲央行<SPAN lang=EN-US>(ECB)</SPAN>的升息预期转向了债务危机方面。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> <st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="8" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on">3<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月8</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>沪金1106</SPAN></SPAN>合约早盘小幅低开<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.04</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克至<SPAN lang=EN-US>302.83</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，盘中最高触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>303.32</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>301.37</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，收盘下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.95</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.64%</SPAN>，成交量<SPAN lang=EN-US>16952</SPAN>手，较上一个交易日小幅增加，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>51390</SPAN>手，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>92</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>ETF</SPAN>持仓方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>全球最大的黄金上市交易基金<SPAN lang=EN-US>(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust</SPAN>表示，其黄金持仓量截至<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="8" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>维持<SPAN lang=EN-US>1,217.30</SPAN>吨，与上一个交易日持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：周初美元自低位强劲反弹，欧洲债务问题及技术性买盘推升美元指数，而前期市场关注的利比亚政治问题出现缓和，金价出现恐慌缓解性下挫，但由于局势仍未稳定，中东地区也门及巴林冲突不断，金价跌幅有限，市场短期观望情绪较浓。技术上看，继续关注金价下方<SPAN lang=EN-US>1424</SPAN>附近的上行趋势下轨支撑，能守稳此位置价格仍有机会再次上行测试<SPAN lang=EN-US>1450</SPAN>关键阻力，由于近期获利盘卖压较重，如跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>1424</SPAN>一线支撑，价格将进入局部调整阶段，中期价格修正指向<SPAN lang=EN-US>1370-1350</SPAN>区域。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>短线支撑：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1424 1400 </SPAN>短线阻力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1450 1480 <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">锌、铝交易提示<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜，伦锌探低回升，<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线失守，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2380</SPAN>美元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.65%</SPAN>；伦铝强势回升，期价重新站于均线之上，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2604</SPAN>美元，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.60%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>国土资源部<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>全国逾八成住宅用地用于保障房建设<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2.</SPAN>央行取消上调数家银行差别存准率<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17900-18000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>350-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>250</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17850-17950</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>400-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>A00 </SPAN>铝报在<SPAN lang=EN-US>16490-16510</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>90</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>10-</SPAN>升水<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>库存方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>734550</SPAN>吨，较上交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>9025</SPAN>吨，上海交易所锌期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>292917</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>498</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铝库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4601925</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>325</SPAN>吨，上海交易所铝期现货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>266353</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>673</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>观点总结：基本面上，供求过剩的局面尚未改变。资金面上，沪铝主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单减少至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>万手以下；沪锌前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名增加至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.4</SPAN>万手以上。整体来看，锌铝净空单数量仍处于高位，资金操作偏空。技术显示，沪锌、沪铝破位确认，跌势有望展开。操作建议：沪锌空单持有；沪铝逢反弹抛空。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="8" UnitName="mm">8mm</st1:chmetcnv> Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4660</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持平；<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="20" UnitName="mm"><SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4930</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>(1) 2</SPAN>月下旬全国粗钢日产量<SPAN lang=EN-US>191.2</SPAN>万吨，创旬度新高；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) </SPAN>钢材供应压力不减，市场期望春需拉动消费；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) </SPAN>朱继民：铁矿石进口将持续谈判机制；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(4) </SPAN>印度粉矿<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="8" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>指数参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>182</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2102</SPAN>吨，持平。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">小结：周二<SPAN lang=EN-US>RB1110</SPAN>合约跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>4800</SPAN>重要关口支撑。目前，市场走势分歧较大，股市保持良好涨势，工业品出现大幅回落，期钢则延续下跌态势。操作上建议，短线<SPAN lang=EN-US>4850-4700</SPAN>区间交易，而前期空单止赢移至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4800</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铜<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：隔夜伦铜走出探底回升行情，于晚间<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>：<SPAN lang=EN-US>00</SPAN>开始自<SPAN lang=EN-US>9346</SPAN>回到<SPAN lang=EN-US>9535</SPAN>，主要受油价下跌且股市上涨带动，但目前铜价仍处<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线之下运行，伦铜持仓在<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>日大幅下跌的同时减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>839</SPAN>，表明投资者并不急于买入。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>随着周五欧盟峰会的临近，昨日穆迪下调希腊信用评级使得市场的焦点由欧央行加息预期逐渐转向欧债问题。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>中国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月精炼铜进口量料环比下滑<SPAN lang=EN-US>15%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>21</SPAN>万吨，受中国春节假期且两市比价不佳影响。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：上海金属网铜现货报价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>73150-73400</SPAN>，较昨日持平，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>200</SPAN>，较上周五的<SPAN lang=EN-US>350</SPAN>有所收窄，现货成交有所回升；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.52-7.53</SPAN>，日内比价基本保持不变，铜市延续内弱外强格局。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="8" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>伦铜库存减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>650</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>426500</SPAN>，目前注销仓单处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.72%</SPAN>，仍处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>之下，再结合伦铜库存的季节性变化，预计后期库存有望继续增加。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：昨日亚洲市在沪铜跟跌的带领下，伦铜延续<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>日的下跌行情，但晚间在受到油价小幅下挫和股市上涨的刺激下，铜价自低位有所回升。目前伦铜并未回到<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线上方，导致铜价下跌的因素仍旧存在即中东紧张的政治局势和油价依旧强势。另外昨日由于市场开始从欧洲加息预期转向欧债忧虑，美元指数连续第二日实现小幅反弹，从而限制了铜价的反弹空间，今日沪铜<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约料开至<SPAN lang=EN-US>71900</SPAN>，今日料围绕<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线即<SPAN lang=EN-US>71750</SPAN>上下波动。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>1 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">大豆豆粕：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>info</SPAN>公司上调南美大豆产量，将巴西大豆产量上调到<SPAN lang=EN-US>7140</SPAN>万吨，将阿根廷大豆产量上调到<SPAN lang=EN-US>5200</SPAN>万吨的高位。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、周四美国农业部将公布最新的月度供需报告，市场预期略微偏空，主要是美豆前期的出口下滑。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US>cBOT</SPAN>美豆继续下跌，连续二个交易日走低，南美大豆带来的供应压力，加上供需报告预期利空使得期价继续向下调整。美豆<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月，<SPAN lang=EN-US>1382</SPAN>美分，<SPAN lang=EN-US>-13</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>商品基金的多头部位继续减持，给期价走势带来压力，前期的高点将是重要的阻力位，短期内预计难以突破。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货价格：<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>豆粕现货价格继续下跌，目前沿海地区价格已经达到了<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨的成交价格，青岛在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，东莞有报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3320</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。目前豆粕现货走势疲软，养殖虽然有利润，但是存栏量依旧偏低，对豆粕需求的拉动短期内难以体现。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>盘面分析：豆类期价大幅下跌，跌幅达到了<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.5%</SPAN>左右，外盘的下跌是一个重要原因，但国内偏空的政策面对整体商品的压制也是期价走弱的重要因素。从期价走势看，虽然多头的态势没有被破坏，但期价的大幅调整显示出了短期内的调整压力。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>操作建议：期价短期走势或有所徘徊，甚至有继续回撤的可能，但从长线持仓的角度看，笔者认为这仍是上涨中的调整，稳健的投资者仍可继续持有前期多单，控制好仓位；短线熟练者可选择区间短差交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">谷物：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、今天在竞价销售<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.65</SPAN>万吨国家临时储备玉米（含中央储备）全部流拍。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、美国中西部内河玉米现货基差报价下跌，因驳船运费上涨令其承压<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、美国农业部在周四将发布最新的供需报告，市场预估玉米库存将降低到<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.65</SPAN>亿蒲式耳，而<SPAN lang=EN-US>2009/10</SPAN>年度的库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>18.08</SPAN>亿蒲，这将是<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>年来的最低水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>CBOT</SPAN>玉米期货继续收跌，连续三个交易日下跌，市场担忧油价可能导致经济放缓，美元走强和技术性卖盘施加了下行压力。<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米：<SPAN lang=EN-US>705.5</SPAN>美分，<SPAN lang=EN-US>-12</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货价格：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、河南地区小麦收购价格走前，面粉厂收购白小麦价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2000-2060</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右；豫麦<SPAN lang=EN-US>34</SPAN>收购价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、江西乐平地区稻米收购价格稳定。据悉，目前当地早籼稻米厂收购价均为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，中晚稻米厂收购价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，普通大米批发价<SPAN lang=EN-US>3400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，优质大米批发价<SPAN lang=EN-US>3800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，碎米<SPAN lang=EN-US>2500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，细糠批发价<SPAN lang=EN-US>1760-1800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均较昨日基本持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、广东港内质量较好的玉米主流报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2250-2260</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，水分<SPAN lang=EN-US>15%</SPAN>以内，较昨日再涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，但市场成交有所放缓。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>操作提示：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>玉米：基本面良好，市场上对后市看涨的预期仍旧强烈，各收购主体收购积极，争粮的局面再度出现。期价今天随后调整，但后市依旧看好。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>郑麦：期价高位回落后，走势一直偏弱，前期的多头资金持续流出，对控制物价政策的担忧持续压制期价，后期期价仍将是震荡偏弱走势。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>早籼稻：稻谷最低收购价格上调，加上近期需求恢复良好，期价在前期小幅回落后反弹，在现货达到历史高点和利多因素继续发挥作用的情况下，预计期价继续走高的可能性较大。另外，从品种对比上看，后期期价有望继续缩小与强麦价差。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期棉封于跌停，前推动市场升至纪录高位的工厂和投机性买盘目前枯竭。指标<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE-5</SPAN>月期棉合约下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>美分，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>207.14</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US> /</SPAN>磅。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、中国商务部周一表示，将拓宽粮食和棉花等大宗商品进口渠道，并增加肉糖等生活必需品储备规模<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>，适当增加重要商品储备种类。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> 2</SPAN>、根据印度棉花公司最新数据，截至<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="2" Day="27" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>27</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，本年度印度新花累计上市量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>389.3</SPAN>万吨，同比增幅仅<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>为<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.9%</SPAN>。近日，印度棉花咨询委员会（<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAB</SPAN>）已将本年度棉花产量预测调低为<SPAN lang=EN-US>530.4</SPAN>万吨。目前，印度棉的<SPAN lang=EN-US> FOB</SPAN>价已涨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>173</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅高点，但仍为全球最低。另外，由于本年度印度棉纱出口已达上限，近期当地纺织<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>厂期盼新财年的出口配额。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 3</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>日在<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期货强势上涨的刺激下进口棉中国主港报价继续上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>美分，远期装运的澳棉和巴西棉上<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨了<SPAN lang=EN-US>4-5</SPAN>美分，多数品种折人民币到岸价突破<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>万元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，常见品种中只有巴西棉的价格低于<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>万元，这也是<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>近期该品种销售见好的主要原因。目前，外棉到港数量不断增加，纺织企业库存相对充足，下游销售没有<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>上佳表现，短期的补库需求并不强烈。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>31241</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，与上一交易日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>236</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>407</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>428</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>）。截止<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="7" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，全国棉花交易市场业务棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>280436</SPAN>吨，较前一日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1043</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>主产区天气：未来三天，云南西北部、西南地区中东部、江南大部、华南等地有小到中雨，其中西藏<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>东南部局地有中到大雨；新疆北部和西部山区、西藏西部和东北部、青海东南部、西北地区东南部、川西<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>高原、黑龙江东部、吉林东部有小雪或阵雪，局地中到大雪。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：投资者结清头寸打压美棉高位调整，收于跌停，市场关注美国农业部<SPAN lang=EN-US>(USDA)</SPAN>周四公布的月度供需报告。郑商所决定全国棉花交易市场的仓单均可转换为郑商所仓单，这利于增加棉花仓单数量，同时国内政策面紧缩预期，对国内棉市做多气氛有所抑制，郑棉表现较为疲弱。国内现货价格继续小幅上涨，棉商惜售心理松动，出货比较积极，纺企采购谨慎，市场成交活跃度欠佳。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约大幅下挫，期价受<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线压制逐步走低，短线考验<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日线支撑，呈现高位震荡走势。操作上，逢高适当短空。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>由于巴西中<SPAN lang=EN-US>-</SPAN>南部地区开榨之前供给仍偏紧，而需求又有增多的迹象，在空头回补的推动下，本周二<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>糖市原糖期货价格强劲上涨。当日<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>期约糖价上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>71</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>+2.4%</SPAN>），收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>30.70</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅，盘中<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>期约糖价一度突破<SPAN lang=EN-US>31</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1107</SPAN>期约糖价同时上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>45</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>+1.6%</SPAN>），以<SPAN lang=EN-US>28.08</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅报收。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、截止<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="7" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>广西已有<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>家糖厂收榨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 2</SPAN>、墨西哥食糖生产进度快于去年<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>国内现货未有明显变化，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7250</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>5469</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1879</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内主产区天气情况：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>今天白天到晚上，全区阴天有小雨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日，全区阴天大部有小雨。<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>南宁市<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>今天白天到晚上，阴天有小雨，东北风<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-2</SPAN>级，最高<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="15" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>15℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>，最低气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="10" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>10℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约受股市走好的多头氛围影响而低开走高，目前震荡于<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线与<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线之间。操作上，空单谨慎持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">油脂：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：跟随大豆收低，<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>豆油继续回落，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月收于<SPAN lang=EN-US> 58.48</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅；因市场预计阿根廷降雨将促进当地大豆作物长 势，令大豆收获前景趋好，<SPAN lang=EN-US>BMD</SPAN>棕榈油期货出现六个交易日以来 首次下挫，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月合约下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>111</SPAN>令吉收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3584</SPAN>令吉<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；因投机帐户获利了结和海外油菜籽期货市场下挫，<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>加拿大油菜籽期 货主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月合约下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.20</SPAN>加元，报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>585.40</SPAN>加元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>公吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息：国际方面，<SPAN lang=EN-US>TransGraph</SPAN>咨询公司报告显示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年 全球棕榈油需求将会增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>4890</SPAN>万吨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年全球棕榈油库存将会减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>28%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>286</SPAN>万吨。国内方面，近日，漳州辖区来自 阿根廷的<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.08</SPAN>万吨转基因毛豆油通关进口，该批货物已经顺利 卸载。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货：昨日油脂现货报价稳中有降，沿海四级豆油约为<SPAN lang=EN-US> 10100-10350</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；港口棕榈油报价集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9650-9900</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨； 国内四级菜油出厂价格处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>10200-10600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">仓单：菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>14318</SPAN>张；豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>7325</SPAN>张；棕榈油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>张；均无变化。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：从周线上来看，国内油脂在大幅回调后受到<SPAN lang=EN-US>20 </SPAN>周均线的支撑，相对于外盘，反弹力度较弱。就目前的情况来 看，多空因素交织，国内油脂维持震荡整理态势不改，短线轻 仓偏空操作，长线继续观望。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">连塑<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、塑料门窗行业<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>或许会在建筑节能领域大展宏图<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、中国石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月乙烯能耗创新低<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格走势平稳。扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>13500</SPAN>，与昨日持平。东北亚报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1339——1341</SPAN>美元，东南亚报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>1300—1302</SPAN>美元，均无涨跌。市场交投谨慎，成交不多。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所库存报<SPAN lang=EN-US>15798</SPAN>张，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>631</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日连塑弱势回调，五日均线及二十日均线均被击穿，显示短期走势转弱。基本面上，货币政策收紧，原油、亚洲乙烯价格高位震荡对<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>价格形成一定压制，但<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>利润空间狭小，进入农膜需求旺季等因素则对连塑形成一定的支撑。连塑反弹或将夭折，短期可能走出区间整理行情，建议投资者以日内交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>2 PVC<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、青海宜化获资<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>亿推进<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>万吨聚氯乙烯项目建设<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、纯碱大跌<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>企业开会稳价<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货市场全线平稳。<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFR</SPAN>远东报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1092</SPAN>美元，华东乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8200</SPAN>元，华东电石法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7850</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>.</SPAN>西北电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300</SPAN>元、华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3900</SPAN>元，均与上一交易日持平。市场成交仍不活跃。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所库存报<SPAN lang=EN-US>734</SPAN>张，与昨日持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>小幅回落，持仓锐减，显示其反弹动力不强。基本面上，下游需求复苏缓慢，现货价格震荡回落、市场成交清淡对其形成一定的压力。预计<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>反弹的力度不会很大，建议投资者仍以日内交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">沪胶<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>TOCOM</SPAN>橡胶期货<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>日创<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>个月最大跌幅，因抛售加速，受中国汽车销售下降或削减该国橡胶需<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>求的担忧情绪影响。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、陈德铭<SPAN lang=EN-US>--</SPAN>今年将取消汽车下乡补贴<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>保留以旧换新；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、日本合成胶企业大举扩能抢市场；<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>版纳再现旱情，降雨比历年少<SPAN lang=EN-US>67%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：云南国营标一胶市场参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>38600-38800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，海南标一胶参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>38600- 38800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，国产标胶高端报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>39000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，越南<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="3" UnitName="l"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3L</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>胶在<SPAN lang=EN-US>39100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右（<SPAN lang=EN-US>13%</SPAN>票），泰国小烟<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>片含<SPAN lang=EN-US>17%</SPAN>税市场报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>42100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US>3#</SPAN>烟片胶参考报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>44000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右（<SPAN lang=EN-US>17%</SPAN>票）；贸易商报价跟<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>随期货市场滑落，市场交投气氛一般，贸易商出货零散。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>亚洲各橡胶主产区天气预报如下：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>曼谷<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="31" UnitName="℃">31℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="25" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>25℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>越南<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>河内<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>中雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="17" UnitName="℃">17℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="15" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>15℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>胡志明市<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>晴<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="34" UnitName="℃">34℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="24" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>24℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>马来西亚<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>吉隆坡<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="32" UnitName="℃">32℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="24" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>24℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>印尼<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雅加达<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="30" UnitName="℃">30℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="24" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>24℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>34725</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：目前来看，现货报价跟随期货市场调整，现货市场买涨不买跌的心态明显，对期货市场难以<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>形成有效的支撑，而日胶的跌势也加重了市场的恐慌情绪，加上<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>两会<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>期间政策面因素主导，短期沪胶或<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>延续震荡调整。从盘面来看，昨日<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约大幅下跌，但在<SPAN lang=EN-US>36000</SPAN>一线支撑显现，短期测试这一位置支撑力<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>度，建议日内操作为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：受利比亚传言和主要产油国考虑增加原油出口影响，<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油期货<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>日收盘自<SPAN lang=EN-US>29</SPAN>个月高点回<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>落，至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>105.02</SPAN>美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、据新华社电<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>美国政府考虑动用战略石油储备，以应对国际市场石油价格持续上涨，确保经<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>济复苏；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月燃料需求量同比增<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.7%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>日黄埔到岸价，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>659.45</SPAN>美元，到岸贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>17-18</SPAN>美元，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>380</SPAN>美<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>646.92</SPAN>美元。今日华南混调油最新交易估价：船用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>交易过驳价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4780-4790</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；库提价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4790 -4800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，国产锅炉用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>交易价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4490-4540</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>528000</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>3500</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：因利比亚冲突升级危及该国石油行业，<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油强势冲高，提振了燃料油市场。华东地区<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>混调油市场报价较为坚挺，下游承接力有限，市场观望气氛浓厚；华南地区混调油市场现货资源吃紧，采购<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>成本上涨，但市场价格依然根据实际需求延续缓慢跟涨的趋势，非标油市场实际成交优惠幅度有所减少。原油维持涨势支撑燃料油市场，上行空间仍需关注需求恢复情况。沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约上方压力明显，短线维持<SPAN lang=EN-US> 4800-4900</SPAN>区间震荡走势，操作上建议采取区间交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>5 PTA<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油小幅收涨跌，科威特石油部长称石油输出国组织正在讨论增产事宜，<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 4</SPAN>月原<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>油期货下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.42</SPAN>美元，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>105.02</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、埃克森美孚、日本出光及日本石油<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>结算价执行<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1655</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFR</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、江浙主流工厂产销维持良好，多数可以做平或略超，部分较高<SPAN lang=EN-US>150%</SPAN>，局部较低<SPAN lang=EN-US>5-7</SPAN>成<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>；短期涤丝或稳中谨慎乐观。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货价格：华东<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场气氛偏弱，现货市场主动报盘稀少，多数商家持观望态度，下游少量询盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US> 11500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，预计商谈重心在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11500-11600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近展开，实盘清淡。亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场气氛观望，市<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>场买卖双方观望较多，预计台货商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1510</SPAN>美元左右，韩货商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1500</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，实盘稀少。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>10741</SPAN>张，较上一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>63</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1023</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：国内召开两会，政策面紧缩忧虑及下游需求表现一般压制市场信心，棉价大跌带动<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>进一<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>步调整；<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场气氛清淡，买家呈现观望，外盘因货源偏紧，价格相对坚挺。江浙涤丝市场整体稳定<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>，产销出现回升；聚酯切片震荡为主，市场偏低货源略减少。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA1105</SPAN>合约明显回落，期价跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线后承<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>压下挫，短线延续高位震荡走势。操作上，短线交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">股指期货</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">瑞达期货：市场情绪趋稳，期指延续盘升外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>道琼斯<SPAN lang=EN-US> 12214.38 124.35 1.03%<BR></SPAN>纳斯达克<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2765.77 20.14 0.73%<BR></SPAN>标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500 1321.82 11.69 0.89%<BR></SPAN>富时<SPAN lang=EN-US>100 5974.76 0.98 0.02%<BR></SPAN>德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX 7164.75 2.82 0.04%<BR></SPAN>法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAC40 4015.91 25.50 0.64%<BR>C0MEX</SPAN>黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1429.2 -5.3 -0.37%<BR>NYMEX</SPAN>原油<SPAN lang=EN-US> 105.02 -0.42 -0.40%<BR></SPAN>美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 76.838 0.327 0.43%<BR></SPAN>小结：周二美股收高，挽回了前两个交易日遭受的损失。美国银行<SPAN lang=EN-US>CEO</SPAN>的讲话使投资者对美国银行业界提高股息与回购股票的前景寄予厚望。欧洲股市周二小幅上扬，有关德国电信购并的消息为市场提供了上涨动力。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1. </SPAN>财政部：今年将公开中央财政三公<SPAN lang=EN-US> (</SPAN>公车消费、公费出国、公务接待费支出<SPAN lang=EN-US>)</SPAN>消费支出；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2. </SPAN>央行公开市场操作放量，存准率上调仍有必要，对部分银行惩罚性存准率上调已取消；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3. </SPAN>住建部官员：住房限购政策至少在两年内不会放松，时刻准备出台下一步楼市调控政策。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>4. </SPAN>社保基金<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>十二五<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>入市规模将快速增长，今年全国社保基金新增千亿投资；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>5</SPAN>．房产税试点未显实效，税收法理再遭质疑，<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>暂不推开<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>6. OECD</SPAN>经济体<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月消费者价格同比增<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.1%</SPAN>。联合国粮农组织（<SPAN lang=EN-US>FAO</SPAN>）和亚洲的发展中国家将于<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="9" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>在曼谷召开紧急开会探讨应对全球粮价；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>7. </SPAN>标普：通胀和资本流入威胁亚洲经济；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>8. OPEC</SPAN>：消费者对石油供应的担忧是心理上的；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>9. </SPAN>美银美林：料欧洲央行下月加息<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>基点抗通胀。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>持仓分析<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="8" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="3" Day="8" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on">3<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月8</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>前</SPAN></st1:chsdate>20</SPAN>名多头主力持单（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1103</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>21716</SPAN>手，空头主力持仓（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1103</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>26098</SPAN>手，净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>4382</SPAN>手，净空持仓减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1071</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>昨日商品期货表现不佳，甚至部分品种跌停，而股指受到强有力支撑，临近尾盘强势拉升。部分主力减仓避险，空头减仓显著。持仓动向表明，多头情绪兴奋，上攻动力充足，股指仍有较大上升空间，有望调整后继续冲高。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>主力合约<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1103</SPAN>周二报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3363.4</SPAN>点，预计周三<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1103</SPAN>合约运行区间在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3380-3300</SPAN>点之间。如上方冲破<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3380 </SPAN>点可以小多，止损下设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点；如下方破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300</SPAN>点，可以介入空单，止损上设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点。如在区间内窄幅震荡，可以高空低多的策略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>合约名称<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>HS 300 3400 3370 3290 3270<BR>IF1103 3410 3380 3300 3280<BR>IF1104 3425 3400 3320 3300<BR>IF1106 3460 3440 3360 3340<BR>IF1109 3500 3480 3400 3380<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">『免责声明：期市瞬息万变，盘中突发消息也将影响走势突变，投资人应盘
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