<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">金属产品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>截止<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="7" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>收盘，<SPAN lang=EN-US> Comex</SPAN>金<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月开盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>1434.8</SPAN>，最高触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>1444.5</SPAN>，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>1428.5</SPAN>，收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>1434.5</SPAN>成交<SPAN lang=EN-US>155708</SPAN>手，持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>314956</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>。欧元区<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>Sentix</SPAN>投资者信心指数为<SPAN lang=EN-US>17.1<BR>2</SPAN>．美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月消费信贷修正后为增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>40.9</SPAN>亿美元，初值增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>61</SPAN>亿美元<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="7" Month="3" Year="2011">3<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月7</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>沪金1106</SPAN></SPAN>合约早盘大幅高开<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.59</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克至<SPAN lang=EN-US>303.10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，盘中最高触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>304.54</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>302.86</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，收盘上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.82</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.27%</SPAN>，成交量<SPAN lang=EN-US>13578</SPAN>手，较上一个交易日小幅增加，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>51298</SPAN>手，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1368</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR>ETF</SPAN>持仓方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>全球最大的黄金上市交易基金<SPAN lang=EN-US>(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust</SPAN>表示，其黄金持仓量截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="7" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1217.30</SPAN>，比上一个交易日大幅增仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.68</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>观点总结：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>本周一市场缺乏重要经济数据指引，金价受原油价格继续走高影响再次刷新纪录高点，技术上看，<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>小时<SPAN lang=EN-US>RSI</SPAN>及<SPAN lang=EN-US>MACD</SPAN>在价格不断刷新高点的同时产生多重背离，短期重点观测<SPAN lang=EN-US>MACD</SPAN>量能变化，如量能冲高后萎缩，可能再次展开调整，短期注意<SPAN lang=EN-US>1450-1423</SPAN>的区间突破情况，中期价格仍保持完好上行趋势。操作上注意短线暂时维持观望，等待区间突破，激进者可轻仓在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1423</SPAN>附近继续建立短线多单。中线等待期金回落<SPAN lang=EN-US>295</SPAN>一线附近继续介入多单。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">锌、铝<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜，伦锌深幅下挫，<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>日均线失守，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2420</SPAN>美元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.73%</SPAN>；伦铝尾盘跳水，<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线岌岌可危，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2563</SPAN>美元，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.16%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美股下挫金价走高<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2.</SPAN>欧盟将评估爱尔兰和希腊救助计划实施状况<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>18400-18500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>535-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>435</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>18350-18450</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>585-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>485</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>A00 </SPAN>铝报在<SPAN lang=EN-US>16580-16600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>80-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>库存方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>725525</SPAN>吨，较上交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>6300</SPAN>吨，上海交易所锌期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>267026</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>52</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铝库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4602250</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>3950</SPAN>吨，上海交易所铝期现货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>292419</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>52</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>观点总结：基本面上，供求过剩的局面尚未改变。资金面上，沪铝主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单增加至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>万手以上；沪锌前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名减少至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.8</SPAN>万手左右。整体来看，锌铝净空单数量仍处于高位，资金操作偏空。技术显示，沪锌、沪铝下跌出现破位迹象，若得到确认，则跌势有望展开。操作建议：沪锌观望或逢高抛空；沪铝继续观望。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="mm" SourceValue="8" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0">8mm</st1:chmetcnv> Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4660</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="mm" SourceValue="20" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4930</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>(1) </SPAN>中央政府坚定不移调控房价<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>地方政府信心十足；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) </SPAN>今年进口增幅有望快于出口<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>单月逆差或现；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) </SPAN>成本大增<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>六成钢企看涨钢价；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(4) </SPAN>印度粉矿<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="7" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>指数参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>183</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2102</SPAN>吨，持平。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">小结：周一<SPAN lang=EN-US>RB1110</SPAN>合约企稳于<SPAN lang=EN-US>4800</SPAN>关口，但建筑钢材社会库存继续增加，同时现货电子盘及现货市场报价延续下行态势。操作上建议，短线多空仍以<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线为参考依据。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铜<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：隔夜伦铜于晚间<SPAN lang=EN-US>23</SPAN>点开始自高位大幅下挫，高低跌幅达<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.98%</SPAN>，目前铜价跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9527</SPAN>，经过前期高位震荡行情之后，昨日的大幅下挫可能意味着铜价选择向下运行，不过还需得到今日沪铜的确认。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>。智利<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月铜出口额为<SPAN lang=EN-US>31.8</SPAN>亿美元，较去年同期的<SPAN lang=EN-US>26.5</SPAN>亿美元增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>20.2%</SPAN>，因国际市场上的铜价飙升。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>。美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月消费者信贷增幅大于预期，并为连续第四个月增加，因家庭购买汽车但继续偿还信用卡债务。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：上海金属网铜现货报价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>73150-73400</SPAN>，较昨日持平，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>200</SPAN>，较上周五的<SPAN lang=EN-US>350</SPAN>有所收窄，现货成交有所回升；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.52-7.53</SPAN>，日内比价基本保持不变，铜市延续内弱外强格局。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="7" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>伦铜库存增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1850</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>427150</SPAN>，目前注销仓单处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.64%</SPAN>，仍处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>之下，再结合伦铜库存的季节性变化，预计后期库存有望继续增加。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：隔夜伦铜大幅下挫，高低波幅达<SPAN lang=EN-US>453</SPAN>点，为去年<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>日以来最大。昨日的大跌是对近期持续上涨的油价做出反应，因油价的上涨会引起投资者对全球经济成长的担忧。目前支撑铜价上涨的理由在于消费旺季的支撑，所以今日沪铜的表现相当关键，如果亚洲市铜价不能回收大部分跌幅，则铜价下跌空间有望进一步打开。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>1 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">大豆豆粕：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFTC</SPAN>持仓显示大豆期货上商品基金净多持仓继续大幅下滑，截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="1" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，净多头寸减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>11020</SPAN>手到<SPAN lang=EN-US>164840</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：美豆期价周一大幅下挫，跟随周边谷物跌势，主要是由于原油的大幅上涨使得市场担忧经济放缓，并且南美的丰产继续给予市场压力，<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月合约下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>19</SPAN>美分到<SPAN lang=EN-US>1395</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>商品基金的多头部位继续减持，给期价走势带来压力，前期的高将是重要的阻力位，短期内预计难以突破。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货价格：由于美豆期价上涨，核算美豆<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月到港船期的价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4620</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，核算<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月船期的巴西大豆价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，价格较高。黑龙江地区国产大豆收购价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3840</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，油厂压榨有利润，目前收购的积极性较高。豆粕现货价格今天小幅下跌，秦皇岛在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3340</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，连云港价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3420</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，南通价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3360</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，价格较昨天下跌了<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>盘面分析：国内商品整体走势较弱，使得豆类反弹也受到压制。但是期价在盘中震荡走高，缩减了大部分跌幅，显示出多头的力量仍在。总体看，今天走势继续反映在两会期价对控制物价的担忧。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>操作建议：短期期价走势或将徘徊，但是豆类长线上涨的格局没有改变，持有豆类的多头部位仍是一个比较好的选择。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期棉收涨，在创出新高后出现回落。指标<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE-5</SPAN>月期棉合约上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.44</SPAN>美分，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>214.14</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、发改委在<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="5" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>公布的《关于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年国民经济和社会发展计划执行情况与<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年国民经济和社会发展计划草案的报告》中指出，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年要力争棉花产品产量达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>680</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 2</SPAN>、据印度国有棉花公司统计，截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="27" Month="2" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>27</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>印度籽棉收购量折皮棉累计<SPAN lang=EN-US>2292.4</SPAN>万包（<SPAN lang=EN-US>389.7</SPAN>万吨），去年同期为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2202</SPAN>万包（<SPAN lang=EN-US>374.3</SPAN>万吨），即同比增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.1</SPAN>％（去年同期相比前一年同期增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.21</SPAN>％）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 3</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>日进口棉中国主港报价继续上涨，多数品种上涨了<SPAN lang=EN-US>4-5</SPAN>美分，报价走势继续呈现近涨远跌态势。与之相对应的是，纺织企业的采购仍以远期和新年度装运为主。最新的美棉出口周报显示，上周中国对新年度美棉的签约量超过<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>万吨。同时，美棉对中国的装运也平稳增加，因此未来几个月外棉到港数量仍有望保持在较高水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>31005</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，与上一交易日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>92</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>406</SPAN>张，较上一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>415</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。截止<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="6" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>全国棉花交易市场业务棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>279393</SPAN>吨，较前一日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>762</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>主产区天气：未来三天，西南地区中东部、江南西部和中南部、华南有小到中雨，其中湖南南部局地有大雨；新疆西部山区、西藏西部和东部、西北地区东南部、川西高原、吉林东部有小雪（雨）或阵雪（雨）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：获利了结令美棉创出新高后出现回落。郑商所决定全国棉花交易市场的仓单均可转换为郑商所仓单，这利于增加棉花仓单数量，同时国内政策面紧缩预期，对国内棉市做多气氛有所抑制，郑棉谨慎跟涨。国内现货价格保持平稳小涨，市场成交活跃，高等级的新疆棉较热销。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约震荡回升，期价增仓重回<SPAN lang=EN-US>33000</SPAN>关口，短线呈现高位震荡走势。操作上，短线交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>继上周五大幅下跌后，本周一<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>糖市进入横盘整理状态，当日糖价一直围绕着<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅波动，收盘时盘面价格稍稍<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>上涨。<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>当日<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>期约糖价上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>+0.4%</SPAN>），收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>29.99</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1107</SPAN>期约糖价同时上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>18</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>+0.7%</SPAN>），以<SPAN lang=EN-US>27.63 </SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅报收。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="15" Month="4" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>起越南食糖进口关税削减至<SPAN lang=EN-US>15%<BR> 2</SPAN>、印度<SPAN lang=EN-US>10-11</SPAN>制糖年将产糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>2,450</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>国内现货未有明显变化，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7250</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>5272</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>2416</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内主产区天气情况：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>天白天到晚上，全区阴天大部有小雨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>日，全区阴天有小<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雨，其中桂东北局部有中雨。<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>南宁市<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>今天白天到晚上，阴转小雨，东北风<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-2</SPAN>级，最高气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="17" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>17℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>，最低气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="11" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约受股市走好的多头氛围影响而低开走高，目前震荡于<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线与<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线之间。操作上，空单谨慎持有<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>4</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">谷物<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">周一美玉米期价大幅下跌，小麦期价同样走低，对原油上涨引发经济放缓的担忧使得交易商选择减持多头部位，<SPAN lang=EN-US> 5</SPAN>月玉米收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>717.5</SPAN>美分，下跌了<SPAN lang=EN-US>10.5</SPAN>美分；<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月小麦下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>31.5</SPAN>美分到<SPAN lang=EN-US>800.75</SPAN>美分；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、美国大平原利好的天气将降低旱情引发的小麦生长压力。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、美国中西部内河玉米现货基差报价下跌，因驳船运费上涨令其承压<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、乌克兰官员称<SPAN lang=EN-US>2015</SPAN>年乌克兰谷物产量目标达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>8000</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货价格：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">国内方面，目前国内玉米现货价格保持坚挺，大连港内玉米平舱报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2160-2170</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；国内方面，小麦产区的旱情较前期大幅缓解，河南新乡地区小麦市场行情平稳，收购价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2040-2080</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，当地粮库收购价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2040-2050</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨（装车价），稳定为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">操作提示：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">玉米：基本面良好，期价整体走势依旧偏强，后期有望出现强势表现，值得关注。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">郑麦：期价高位回落，走势偏弱，资金持续流出，对控制物价政策的担忧在持续压制期价，后期期价让将是震荡偏弱走势。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">早籼稻：期价回落后反弹，继续缩小与强麦价差，短期持有震荡偏强思路。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">油脂：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：跟随大豆收低，<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>豆油高位震荡，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月收于<SPAN lang=EN-US> 59.1</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅；利比亚动荡构成原油供应减少的威胁，交易商预 期能源价格上涨将提升生物柴油的吸引力，<SPAN lang=EN-US>BMD</SPAN>棕榈油期货冲高回落，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月合约上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>35</SPAN>令吉收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3695</SPAN>令吉<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>大豆和豆油期货下跌拖累了油菜籽期货下跌，<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>加拿大油菜籽期货主 力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月合约收盘下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>5.00</SPAN>加元，报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>592.60</SPAN>加元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>公吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息：国际方面，印尼棕榈油生产商协会（<SPAN lang=EN-US>GAPKI</SPAN>）数据显 示，印度尼西亚<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月棕榈油出口较去年同期下滑<SPAN lang=EN-US>2%</SPAN>，因至主要进 口国印度和欧洲的发货量减少。国内方面，中粮集团董事长宁 高宁表示，对大型油脂企业的限价要求已经对企业经营造成一定影响；他表示限价只是短期行为，如果限价时间过长，企业 将很难承受。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货：昨日油脂现货报价基本稳定，沿海四级豆油约为<SPAN lang=EN-US> 10100-10400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；港口棕榈油报价集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9700-10050</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨； 国内四级菜油出厂价格处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>10200-10500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">仓单：菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>14318</SPAN>张；豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>7325</SPAN>张；棕榈油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>张；均无变化。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：从周线上来看，国内油脂在大幅回调后受到<SPAN lang=EN-US>20 </SPAN>周均线的支撑，而两会期间，还是有一定因素提振其继续反弹，但是相对于外盘，反弹力度较弱。就目前的情况来看，国内油脂维持震荡整理态势不改，短多轻仓介入，长线继续观望。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">连塑<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、韩国<SPAN lang=EN-US>LG</SPAN>化学计划乙烯装置进行扩能<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、北京部分商家下架<SPAN lang=EN-US>PC</SPAN>奶瓶<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>塑料太空杯尚存隐患<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格走势平稳。扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>13500</SPAN>，与昨日持平。亚洲乙烯价格则明显走弱。东北亚报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1339——1341</SPAN>美元，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>美元，东南亚则大跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>美元报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>1300—1302</SPAN>。市场交投谨慎，成交不多。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>16429</SPAN>张，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>224</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日连塑继续震荡上行，但持仓大幅锐减，显示临近<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线，市场持多信心有所减弱。基本面上，货币政策收紧，亚洲乙烯价格回落对<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>价格形成一定压制，但原油走势强劲，<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>利润空间狭小，进入农膜需求旺季等因素则对连塑形成一定的支撑。预计连塑仍有上行潜力。操作上，投资者手中多单可<SPAN lang=EN-US>11970</SPAN>一线为止损位谨慎持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><BR>2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>PVC<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月商品房开盘锐减<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、山东地区电石市场小幅下滑<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货市场涨跌不一。<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFR</SPAN>远东报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1092</SPAN>美元，华东乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8200</SPAN>元，均无涨跌。华东电石法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>则回落<SPAN lang=EN-US>70</SPAN>元，报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7850</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>.</SPAN>西北电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300</SPAN>元、华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3900</SPAN>元，均与上一交易日持平。市场成交仍不活跃。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>734</SPAN>张，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>550</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：受逢抄底盘介入带动昨日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>小幅反弹，持仓量大幅回升，显示其短期有一定的反弹动能。基本面表现较弱，下游需求复苏缓慢，现货价格连续回调、市场成交清淡对其形成一定的压力。预计<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>反弹的力度不会很大，预计<SPAN lang=EN-US>8350——8400</SPAN>一线即有一定的阻力。操作上，建议投资者以日内交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>3 PTA<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油收涨，受利比亚冲突升级推动，<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 4</SPAN>月原油期货上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.02</SPAN>美元，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>105.44</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、中石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>合同挂牌<SPAN lang=EN-US>13100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月结算价上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、桐乡地区一主流工厂前期停车检修的<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>万吨聚酯装置计划于<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="10" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>重启开车，该装置主要产品为半光<SPAN lang=EN-US>POY</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>FDY</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货价格：华东<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场行情平淡，部分卖方报盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11700-11750</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，买方拿货心态谨慎，市场商谈重心在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11600-11650</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近展开，实盘稀少。亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场气氛趋稳，市场台产现货报盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1520</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，买方询盘稀少，商谈重心在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1510-1515</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，市场实盘清淡。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>10804</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>400</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1023</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：国内召开两会，政策面紧缩忧虑及下游需求表现一般打压市场信心，整体维持高位震荡；<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场气氛清淡，买家递盘意向不高。江浙涤丝市场整体稳定，产销出现回升；聚酯切片震荡为主，市场偏低货源略减少。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA1105</SPAN>合约小幅收涨，期价围绕<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线整理，短线延续高位震荡走势。操作上，短线交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油收高，由于利比亚局势继续动荡。<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 4</SPAN>月原油期货上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.02</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.98%</SPAN>，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>105.44</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶，创下<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="26" Month="9" Year="2008"><SPAN lang=EN-US>08</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>26</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>以来最高收盘价。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICAP</SPAN>船运机构的最新数据显示，上周全球浮动原油储量保持不变，截止<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="4" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>当周全球浮动原油储量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4400</SPAN>万桶，与截止<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="25" Month="2" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>当周的储量一样。<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICAP</SPAN>的数据包括全球范围内存储有原油的超大型油轮。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 2</SPAN>、石油输出国组织（欧佩克）最大的石油生产国沙特阿拉伯<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月份平均日产石油约<SPAN lang=EN-US>940</SPAN>万桶，高于其它大多数的估计。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>日黄埔到岸价，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>689.27</SPAN>美元，到岸贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>17-18</SPAN>美元，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>380</SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>647.81</SPAN>美元。华南混调油最新交易估价：船用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>交易过驳价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4750-4760</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；库提价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4760-4770</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价持平，国产锅炉用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>交易价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4480-4530</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：因利比亚冲突升级危及该国石油行业，<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油继续收高，这提振燃料油市场。华东地区混调油市场报价较为坚挺，下游承接力有限，市场观望气氛浓厚；华南地区混调油市场整体行情走稳为主，多数贸易商将继续持稳待市为主，非标油资源偏少支撑价格继续走稳。原油维持涨势支撑动燃料油市场，上行空间仍需关注需求恢复情况。沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约小幅上涨，期价上冲至<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日线后有所回落，短线维持<SPAN lang=EN-US>4800-4900</SPAN>区间震荡走势。操作上，区间交易，回落短多。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US>5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">天胶<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>TOCOM</SPAN>橡胶期货<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>日连续第四个交易日下跌，并触及近七周低点，因原油价格延续涨势并创<SPAN lang=EN-US>29</SPAN>个月新高，加重了燃料成本上涨可能导致汽车销售下降并削弱轮胎需求的担忧情绪。<SPAN lang=EN-US>TOCOM 8</SPAN>月橡胶期货<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>日一度下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.7%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>451.3</SPAN>日元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>千克（<SPAN lang=EN-US>5,516</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>公吨），为<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="18" Month="1" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>18</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>以来的最低水平，收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>456.2</SPAN>日元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>千克。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、据日本《产经新闻》<SPAN lang=EN-US>(Sankei Newspaper</SPAN>）道，消息人士透露，日本丰田汽车公司计划<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年将其在泰国工厂的汽车年产能提高<SPAN lang=EN-US>10%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、日本伊藤忠商社<SPAN lang=EN-US>(Itochu Corp)</SPAN>宣布，该公司同意以<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.37</SPAN>亿英镑<SPAN lang=EN-US>(</SPAN>合<SPAN lang=EN-US>10.4</SPAN>亿美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>)</SPAN>从法国私募股权公司<SPAN lang=EN-US>PAL Partners</SPAN>手中收购英国最大的轮胎零售商<SPAN lang=EN-US>Kwik-Fit</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>现货市场：上海市场云南国标一号胶报<SPAN lang=EN-US>39000</SPAN>元，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>300</SPAN>元。青岛市场泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US>3#</SPAN>烟片走势平稳，报<SPAN lang=EN-US> 40600</SPAN>元，无涨跌。合成胶价格相对平稳，丁苯橡胶<SPAN lang=EN-US>1502</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>27000</SPAN>元，高桥石化顺丁橡胶<SPAN lang=EN-US>BR9000</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>33000</SPAN>，无涨跌。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>亚洲各橡胶主产区天气预报如下：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>曼谷<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="33" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0">33℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="26" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>26℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>越南<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>河内<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>小到中雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="18" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0">18℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="15" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>15℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>胡志明市<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="33" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0">33℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="23" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>23℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>马来西亚<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>吉隆坡<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="33" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0">33℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="24" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>24℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>印尼<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雅加达<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="31" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0">31℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="24" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>24℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>34735</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>105</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：沪胶小幅反弹，显示下方<SPAN lang=EN-US>38000</SPAN>一线支撑较好，期价重回<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线以上，但上方仍面临中短期均线的压制。整体来看，现货价格稳中偏弱及下游需求复苏缓慢拖累期货价格，短期对沪胶形成一定的压力。但当前市场库存偏低以及<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>两会<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>中对汽车业的<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>十二五<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>目标明确均对其形成支撑。预计短期期价将延续震荡盘整态势，建议投资者以日内交易为主。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">股指期货</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt" lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">瑞达期货：多头情绪高涨，期指或延续盘升<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>道琼斯<SPAN lang=EN-US> 12090.03 -79.85 -0.66%<BR></SPAN>纳斯达克<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2745.63 -39.04 -1.40%<BR></SPAN>标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500 1310.13 -11.02 -0.83%<BR></SPAN>富时<SPAN lang=EN-US>100 5973.78 -16.61 -0.28%<BR></SPAN>德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX 7161.93 -16.97 -0.24%<BR></SPAN>法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAC40 3990.41 -29.80 -0.74%<BR>C0MEX</SPAN>黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1434.50 1.40 0.10%<BR>NYMEX</SPAN>原油<SPAN lang=EN-US> 105.44 1.02 0.98%<BR></SPAN>美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 76.517 0.108 0.14%<BR></SPAN>小结：美股周一低收，受分析师调降评级影响，科技股大幅下滑。利比亚局势也令投资者对原油供应感到忧虑。欧股周一收低，银行股普跌，但交易消息提振奢侈品板块。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1. </SPAN>温家宝：当前经济发展面临的形势仍极其复杂，采取灵活审慎政策；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2. </SPAN>财政部：今年财政更积极，预算支出超<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>万亿；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3. </SPAN>现代服务业发展规划或上半年出台；<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR>4. </SPAN>证监会<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>新股破发率远低于境外，提高养老金入市比重；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>5 </SPAN>上海房价均价跌破两万大关，触及近<SPAN lang=EN-US>32</SPAN>周以来新低；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>6. </SPAN>穆迪评级再下调希腊三个等级，理由是国债持有者在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2013</SPAN>年后将面临巨大的不确定性；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>7. </SPAN>美<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月个人消费者信贷增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>亿美元，增长超预期；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>8. </SPAN>法国兴业银行研究报告表示：如果沙特原油输出中断，油价可能会上涨至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>200</SPAN>美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>持仓分析<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="7" Month="3" Year="2011"><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="7" Month="3" Year="2011">3<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月7</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>前</SPAN></st1:chsdate>20</SPAN>名多头主力持单（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1103</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>22654</SPAN>手，空头主力持仓（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1103</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>28178</SPAN>手，净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>5524</SPAN>手，净空持仓增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>106</SPAN>手。其中：前<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>名主力机构净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>8831</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>周一多头情绪兴奋，强势拉升，凸显<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>两会<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>行情。多空主力均小幅增仓，各自持仓变动并不显著。持仓动向表明，多空双方分歧。结合基本面和昨日放大成交量情况，股指仍有较大上升空间和动力，有望继续冲高并突破新高，空头应注意控制风险。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>主力合约<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1103</SPAN>周一报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3342.2</SPAN>点，预计周二<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1103</SPAN>合约运行区间在：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3380-3300</SPAN>点之间。如上方冲破<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3380 </SPAN>点可以小多，止损下设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点；如下方破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300</SPAN>点，可以介入空单，止损上设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点。如在区间内窄幅震荡，可以高空低多的策略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>合约名称<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>HS 300 3400 3370 3290 3270<BR>IF1103 3410 3380 3300 3280<BR>IF1104 3425 3400 3320 3300<BR>IF1106 3460 3440 3360 3340<BR>IF1109 3500 3480 3400 3380<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">『免责声明：期市瞬息万变，盘中突发消息也将影响走势突变，投资人应盘
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