<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">金属产品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>：纽约商品期货交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>(COMEX)</SPAN>期金本周二在避险情绪推动下刷新历史新高，<SPAN lang=EN-US>Comex</SPAN>金<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月开盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>1411.2</SPAN>，最高触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>1435.6</SPAN>，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>1409.8</SPAN>，收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>1431.2</SPAN>，成交<SPAN lang=EN-US>156611</SPAN>手，持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>325453</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">消息方面：美国供应管理协会<SPAN lang=EN-US>(ISM)</SPAN>周二<SPAN lang=EN-US>(<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="1" Month="3" Year="2011">3<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月1</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate>)</SPAN>公布的数据显示，美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月份制造业活动扩张幅度超出市场预期，但原材料价格上涨使得人们对通胀的担忧加剧。数据显示，美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月份制造业采购经理人指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>(PMI)</SPAN>升至<SPAN lang=EN-US>61.4</SPAN>，创<SPAN lang=EN-US>2004</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月以来的最快扩张速度，<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月份为<SPAN lang=EN-US>60.8</SPAN>，经济学家预期为<SPAN lang=EN-US>60.9</SPAN>，该指数高于<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>表明制造业在扩张。<SPAN lang=EN-US>ISM</SPAN>指出，通胀压力继续增加，制造业面临着大宗商品投入成本以及能源价格不断增加的双重压力。美联储<SPAN lang=EN-US>(FED)</SPAN>主席伯南克<SPAN lang=EN-US>(Ben Bernanke)</SPAN>周二<SPAN lang=EN-US>(<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="1" Month="3" Year="2011">3<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月1</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate>)</SPAN>向参议院金融委员会做了半年度货币政策证词陈述。因美国经济不断出现改善的迹象，同时全球商品价格走高，美联储官员相继表达了收紧货币政策的倾向，而伯南克也意外在本次陈述中表示，虽然目前的通胀预期依然很低，但美联储准备采取措施应对通胀。截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="1" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，世界最大的黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US>ETF SPDR</SPAN>持仓量<SPAN lang=EN-US>1210.96</SPAN>，与上一个交易日持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US>9999</SPAN>收盘报<SPAN lang=EN-US>299.79</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.19</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，成交<SPAN lang=EN-US>4575.6</SPAN>手<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>观点总结：现货金价如之前预期再次刷新历史新高，上方上行空间也被打开，由于近期中东政治动荡局势愈演愈烈，恐慌情绪持续升温仍将对金价形成强有力支撑，另外伯南克陈述中表示将采取措施应对通胀的讲话令美元低位反弹，美股及大宗商品市场再次掉头向下，如出现恐慌性抛盘，黄金将再次受益。投资者需密切注意近期美元的中期低位反弹情况。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>短线支撑：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1404 1418 </SPAN>短线阻力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1450 1480<BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv UnitName="mm" SourceValue="8" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on">8mm</st1:chmetcnv> Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4740</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持平；<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="mm" SourceValue="20" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4980</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>(1) </SPAN>二季度铁矿石协议价或将涨至历史最高；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) </SPAN>中钢协：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月上中旬中国粗钢产量大幅回升；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) </SPAN>日钢铁联盟强烈反对必和必拓原料煤按月定价要求；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(4) </SPAN>印度粉矿<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="1" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>188</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2102</SPAN>吨，持平。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>小结：周二<SPAN lang=EN-US>RB1110</SPAN>合约再度受挫，盘中再创本轮调整新低<SPAN lang=EN-US>4816</SPAN>。基本面上继续受房产调控打压，但原材料的继续上涨又限制了沪钢的下跌空间。操作上建议：多单观望等待企稳，空单继续依托<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线操作。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">锌、铝<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜，伦锌宽幅震荡，日线收十字星，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2519</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.12%</SPAN>；伦铝继续反弹，创出反弹新高，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2603</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.39%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>中国首家有色金属现货电子交易所成立<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2.</SPAN>中国铝业预计<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年全球铝使用量<SPAN lang=EN-US>4324</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>18650-18750</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，与上交易日持平，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>740-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>640</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>18600-18700</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，保持平稳，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>790-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>690</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>A00 </SPAN>铝报在<SPAN lang=EN-US>16660-16680</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>100-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>80</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>库存方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>708300</SPAN>吨，与上交易日持平，上海交易所锌期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>290473</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>225</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铝库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4606625</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>4850</SPAN>吨，上海交易所铝期现货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>267425</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>98</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>观点总结：基本面上，供求过剩的局面尚未改变。资金面上，沪铝主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单增加至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>万手以上；沪锌前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名稳定在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.8</SPAN>万手左右。整体来看，锌铝净空单数量仍处于高位，资金操作偏空。技术显示，沪锌、沪铝下跌基本到位，下方空间有限，而反弹同样缺乏动力。操作建议：沪锌短多逢高离场；沪铝谨慎观望。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">4</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">铜<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">外盘：隔夜伦铜冲高回落，主要受油价大幅上涨打压，盘中铜价最高触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>9942</SPAN>，尾盘跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.04%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9870.</SPAN>目前铜价仍处于均线交织处运行，还未实现有效突破，高位小幅震荡整理。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>ISM</SPAN>指数为<SPAN lang=EN-US>61.4</SPAN>，为<SPAN lang=EN-US>04</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月以来最高，此前<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月为<SPAN lang=EN-US>60.8.2. </SPAN>周二伊朗安全不对反政府抗议示威者发射了催泪瓦斯，并与其发生冲突，示威群众要求释放反对领导人。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">现货方面：上海金属网铜现货报价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>72600-73050</SPAN>，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>350</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>400</SPAN>，铜价高位，现货保持较高贴水，表明现货需求不佳，上涨意愿不强；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.53-7.54</SPAN>，日内比价基本保持不变，表明沪铜被动跟涨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">库存：<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="28" Month="2" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>28</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>伦铜库存减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>725</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>420275</SPAN>，目前注销仓单处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.44%</SPAN>，仍处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>之下，再结合伦铜库存的季节性变化，预计后期库存有望继续增加。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">观点总结：隔夜伦铜高位区间震荡，尾盘震荡收跌。昨日油价和金价大幅上涨，其中纽约原油主力合约<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月再度站上<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶之上，而伦敦金则持续上扬至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1434.77</SPAN>，再创历史新高。中东政治动乱不断蔓延且愈演愈烈，导致了市场避险情绪的升温，金油大涨引来了市场对全球经济复苏的担忧，在这样的背景下，铜价难以大幅上涨，但因市场对铜消费旺季良好需求的预期，又使得铜价难以大跌，短期铜价将选择高位震荡整理，今日沪铜料开至<SPAN lang=EN-US>74500</SPAN>，若上涨乏力，日内可尝试短空，止损于<SPAN lang=EN-US>75500.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">大豆豆粕：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、截至<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>日，巴西大豆收割完成<SPAN lang=EN-US>19%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、农业旱情缓解，全国受旱面积较高峰是减少接近六成。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>美豆上涨，在前期的下跌后，期价的投资价值体现，长期供需面偏紧使得买盘积极性提高。美豆<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月，<SPAN lang=EN-US>1375.25</SPAN>美分，<SPAN lang=EN-US>+10.5</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、目前港口的分销价格能在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4250</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，黑龙江地区国产大豆收购价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3840</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，油厂压榨有利润，目前收购的积极性较高。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、今天豆粕现货价格以稳中为主，青岛地区报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3350</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，防城港地区价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3390</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>天气：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、阿根廷未来五天依旧较好，有利于大豆的生长，可以预见阿根廷大豆产量前景正趋于稳定。<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、巴西未中南部地区有降雨，使得收割被延缓。。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>盘面分析：盘面有所反弹，但是力度不大，市场仍旧寻求更多的支撑力量。期价在下跌之后，形成了小的整理态势，在目前的位置，期价走势略显徘徊。技术面依旧偏弱，且目前没有新的利多进入。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>操作建议：期价逐步反弹，有企稳的迹象，但是走势仍旧不稳，操作上仍需持有谨慎思路，建议持有前期的多单，继续观察后续的走势。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">谷物：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">外盘：受供应担忧提振，周二<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米期货市场收高，期价涨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2008</SPAN>年中以来的最高点。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010/11</SPAN>年度全球玉米产量数据上调至<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.109</SPAN>亿吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>IGC:2011/12</SPAN>年度全球小麦产量有望达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.72</SPAN>亿吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、粮源偏紧，近期安徽芜湖稻米小幅上涨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">现货方面：目前国内玉米现货价格继续上涨，局部略有下跌。东北港口玉米市场价格走势坚挺，大连港内玉米平舱报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2140-2150</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，水分<SPAN lang=EN-US>15%</SPAN>；由于库存增加，广东港口玉米价格小幅走弱，港内质量较好 的玉米主流成交价仍在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2220-2230</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，眼下港口玉米库存加未卸升至<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>万吨，由于近期港 口玉米库存增加，加上企业前期采购较积极，因此观望气氛较浓。郑州强筋小麦出库价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；江西九 江早稻收购价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2110</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，水分≤<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.5%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">库存方面：玉米仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>699</SPAN>张，郑州强麦仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>13606</SPAN>张，早籼稻仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7206</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">观点总结：现货报价表现坚挺，玉米期价中长期上涨趋势未变，操作上可采取逢低买入策略；<SPAN lang=EN-US>WS1109</SPAN>合约下方<SPAN lang=EN-US>2840</SPAN>一线支撑较好，但上方均线压力显现，短期震荡思路对待；缺乏基本面指引，早籼稻期价跟随周边谷物运行，短期震荡思路对待。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期棉收涨，但获利了结使市场从高位回落。指标<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE-5</SPAN>月期棉合约上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.37</SPAN>美分，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.936</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">、据海关数据显示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月，我国出口棉布<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="米" SourceValue="300000000" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="1" w:st="on">03<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>亿米</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US>，环比上升2.08%</SPAN></SPAN>，同比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>14.03%</SPAN>；进口棉布<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.57</SPAN>亿米，环比下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>27.11%</SPAN>，同比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.84%</SPAN>；净出口量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.46</SPAN>亿米，环比上升<SPAN lang=EN-US>5.85%</SPAN>，同比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>15.15%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">、<SPAN lang=EN-US>28</SPAN>日，在经历了一周的深度调整之后，进口棉中国主港报价出现大幅反弹，大部分品种上涨了<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US>USDA</SPAN>农业展望论坛预测中国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011/12</SPAN>年度进口近<SPAN lang=EN-US>400</SPAN>万吨棉花让外界倍受鼓舞。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>30467</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，与上一交易日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>154</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>382</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>39</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>401</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">主产区天气：未来三天，我国长江以南大部地区及新疆西南部山区将持续有小到中雨（雪）天气过程，其中，新疆西南部的局地有大雪，西北地区东部、华北西南部、黄淮西部和南部、江淮、江汉等地有小雨（雪）或雨夹雪天气。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">观点总结：美棉触及涨停后遭受获利了结冲高回落。国家统计局数据显示<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年全国棉花产量<SPAN lang=EN-US>597</SPAN>万吨，数据低于前期预期提振棉花市场。国内现货价格小幅上涨，期现价差继续扩大。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约增仓走高，短线继续测试<SPAN lang=EN-US>33000</SPAN>一线压力，呈现高位宽幅震荡走势。操作上，逢低短多交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">油脂：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">外盘：新投机买盘及国际植物油价格企稳支撑，<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>豆油 冲高回落，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>57.6</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅；因交易商关注原油市场 迅猛涨势，<SPAN lang=EN-US>BMD</SPAN>棕榈油期货周二最高窜升<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.6%</SPAN>，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月合约下 跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>45</SPAN>令吉收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3546</SPAN>令吉<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>大豆和豆油期货上扬带动了油菜籽期货尾盘走强，<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>加拿大油菜籽期货主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月合约收盘上 涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.90</SPAN>加元，报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>582.60</SPAN>加元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>公吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">消息：国际方面，美国农业部称，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011/12</SPAN>年度美国豆油库 存料下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>17%</SPAN>，至<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>年最低水平，生物柴油产量增加为主要因素 。国内方面，<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="1" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，国储第八次拍卖<SPAN lang=EN-US>10.0101</SPAN>万吨菜籽油，成交均价<SPAN lang=EN-US>9523</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，成交率<SPAN lang=EN-US>100%</SPAN>，较上次<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="15" Month="2" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>拍卖成交均价<SPAN lang=EN-US> 9688</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>165</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，成交率上移<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.89</SPAN>个百分点。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">现货：受期货市场震荡整理影响，昨日油脂现货报价稳中有降。沿海四级豆油约为<SPAN lang=EN-US>10100-10250</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；港口棕榈油报价集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9650-10050</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；国内四级菜油出厂价格处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>10000- 10600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">仓单：菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>14328</SPAN>张，较上一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>600</SPAN>张；豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US> 7325</SPAN>张；棕榈油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>张；均无变化。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">观点总结：继上周五国内外油脂反弹，油脂的反弹只持续了两个交易日，整体表现较弱，这只是对于前期过度下跌的技 术修复。就目前的情况来看，国内油脂维持震荡整理态势不改 ，短多轻仓介入，长线继续观望。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">由于巴西和印度两大产糖国食糖生产前景看好，加上市场方面在消化<SPAN lang=EN-US>1103</SPAN>月合约摘牌时共交割了<SPAN lang=EN-US>90</SPAN>余万吨原糖的消息 ，本周二<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>糖市终结了三连阳，收盘时盘面价格小幅下跌。当日<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>期约糖价下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>19</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>-0.6%</SPAN>），收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>29.26</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅 ，盘中<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>期约糖价一度下探<SPAN lang=EN-US>28.58</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅的低点；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1107</SPAN>期约糖价同时下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>33</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>-1.2%</SPAN>），以<SPAN lang=EN-US>26.93</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅报收。<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="2" Month="2" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>2 </SPAN></st1:chsdate>日糖价一度冲击了<SPAN lang=EN-US>1980</SPAN>年以来<SPAN lang=EN-US>36.08</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅的最高点。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">、印度本年度预计产糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>2450</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3</SPAN>月份投放<SPAN lang=EN-US>188</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">、<SPAN lang=EN-US>ISO:10-11</SPAN>制糖年全球食糖供给过剩<SPAN lang=EN-US>19.6</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">国内现货小幅上调，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7280</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>5196</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>2133</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">国内主产区天气情况：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">今天白天到晚上，全区阴天间多云有分散小雨。南宁市<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>今天白天到晚上，阴天有小雨，东北风<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级，最高气温<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="16" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>℃</st1:chmetcnv>， 最低气温<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="10" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>℃</st1:chmetcnv>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约短期承压于<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线，尾盘大幅减仓下行，多头获利了结迹象明显。操作上，可逢高抛空，并关注多<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1109</SPAN>空<SPAN lang=EN-US>1201</SPAN>的套利机会。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">连塑<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、美国认定中国台湾产聚乙烯醇存在倾销<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、去年我国乙烯产量达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>1419</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格表现平稳。扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>11100</SPAN>，东北亚乙烯报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1349——1351</SPAN>美元，东南亚乙烯报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1330—1332</SPAN>，均与上一交易日持平，市场报盘稀少，观望气氛较重。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>18034</SPAN>张，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>22</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日连塑窄幅震荡，盘中波动剧烈，显示上方压力仍较大。基本面上，通胀压力大，货币政策收紧，对商品价格形成一定压制，但亚洲乙烯价格价格坚挺，<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>利润空间狭小，目前即将进入农膜需求旺季则对连塑形成一定的支撑。预计经短暂整理后，有望再度走强，明日关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>12000</SPAN>元一线的压力。操作上，投资者手中多单可在位置做一个技术性减持，待其突破后再跟进多单。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2 PVC<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、全球最大<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>管道企业有意投资大陆<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、温家宝<SPAN lang=EN-US>-</SPAN>今后<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>年建<SPAN lang=EN-US>3600</SPAN>万套保障房<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货市场走势平稳。华东乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8200</SPAN>元，华东电石法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8000</SPAN>元，西北电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300</SPAN>元华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3900</SPAN>元，均与上一交易日持平。市场成交仍不活跃。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1284</SPAN>张，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>440</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>弱势回调，下方均线为其提供了一定的支撑。基本面上，亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货价格坚挺、国内天气逐渐好转，下游需求有望逐渐恢复均为其提供了一定的支撑。但国内货币政策持续收紧则对其形成一定的压制，预计<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>后市有望震荡走高，操作上，投资者可小幅建多，谨慎持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><BR>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">天胶<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：受逢低买盘介入及沪胶连续反弹的影响，<SPAN lang=EN-US>TOCOM</SPAN>橡胶<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="1" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>同步展开反弹，<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>月合约报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>483.6</SPAN>日元，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.7</SPAN>日元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.62%</SPAN>。短期内，日胶再度面临选择，沪胶的反弹力度将决定日胶的反弹高度。建议投资者仍以日内交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>产橡胶外胎<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.76</SPAN>万条<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>同增两成<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>现货市场：上海市场橡胶现货价格继续回升。云南国标一号胶报<SPAN lang=EN-US>40200</SPAN>元，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>300</SPAN>元。青岛市场泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US>3#</SPAN>烟片报<SPAN lang=EN-US>41000</SPAN>元，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>元，丁苯橡胶<SPAN lang=EN-US>1502</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>26800</SPAN>元，高桥石化顺丁橡胶<SPAN lang=EN-US>BR9000</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>33200</SPAN>，均与昨日持平。市场成交有所回升。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>亚洲各橡胶主产区天气预报如下：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>曼谷<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阴<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="33" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on">33℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="26" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>26℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>越南<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>河内<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阴<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="21" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on">21℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="17" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>17℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>胡志明市<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阴<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="33" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on">33℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="23" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>23℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>马来西亚<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>吉隆坡<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="33" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on">33℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="24" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>24℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>印尼<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雅加达<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="31" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on">31℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="℃" SourceValue="24" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>24℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>35745</SPAN>吨，较上一交易日继续减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1705</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日沪胶强势整理，持仓继续大幅增加，显示此位置承接较为有力。基本面上，国内货币政策收紧、下游需求复苏缓慢、沪胶形成一定的打压，经连续大幅回落，沪胶短线有一定的反弹要求，预计<SPAN lang=EN-US>40000</SPAN>元一线难以阻挡多方脚步，操作上，建议投资者手中多单可谨慎持有，关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>41000</SPAN>元的阻力。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">4 PTA<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油收高，因市场担忧中东动荡局势波及其他主要产油国，<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 4</SPAN>月原油期货上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.66</SPAN>美元，报每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>99.63</SPAN>美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、根据海关统计数据显示：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>01</SPAN>月出口短纤<SPAN lang=EN-US>87,333</SPAN>吨，出口金额<SPAN lang=EN-US>13,559.67</SPAN>万美元，均价<SPAN lang=EN-US>1,553</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。出口量较上月增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>34.38% </SPAN>，较去年同期增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>125.91% </SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、天津石化产能<SPAN lang=EN-US>32</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年的<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>装置<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月计划停车一个月。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">现货价格：华东<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场高位坚挺，卖方报价走高至<SPAN lang=EN-US>11750</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨或略高，买方询盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11650</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，实际商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11650-11700</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近展开，交易气氛尚可。亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场气氛持续拉涨，台产船货报盘涨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1520</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，买方询盘积极，实际商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1510</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，韩货商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1500</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，此价位有实盘达成。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>10540</SPAN>张，较上一交易日持平，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1817</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">观点总结：原油以及<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>价格维持高位，限制<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>的调整空间，棉花期价大幅上涨带动<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场做多气氛；<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场气氛上扬，卖方捂盘惜售，成交有所回升。江浙涤丝市场整体氛围走稳，部分工厂滞销品种适度优惠促销，下游织造工厂谨慎观望，随需采购为主；聚酯切片市场高位稳定，下游仍较为谨慎，观望心态难改。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA1105</SPAN>合约震荡收高，期价高开上测<SPAN lang=EN-US>12000</SPAN>后有所回落，短线围绕<SPAN lang=EN-US>12000</SPAN>关口波动，将延续高位震荡走势。操作上，回落短多交易。 <SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油大幅收高，因市场担忧中东动荡局势波及其他主要产油国。<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 4</SPAN>月原油期货上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.66</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.74%</SPAN>，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>99.63</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶。油价在盘后交易中再创日内高点<SPAN lang=EN-US>100.59</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">、亚洲燃料油价格周二反弹，即期跨月价差在逆价差区间走阔，受再度兴起的买兴拉动；<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>/4</SPAN>月跨月价差上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.00</SPAN>美元至每吨逾<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.00</SPAN>美元，<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>/5</SPAN>月价差走坚至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.00</SPAN>美元的一周高位。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">、根据对分析师的调查，预计美国能源部<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="2" Month="3" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>公布的数据将显示截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="25" Month="2" Year="2011"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>当周美国原油库存将增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>万桶。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">现货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日黄埔到岸价，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>662.05</SPAN>美元，到岸贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>19-20</SPAN>美元，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>380</SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>652.89</SPAN>美元。华南混调油最新交易估价：船用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>交易过驳价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4750-4760</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；库提价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4760-4770</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价持平，国产锅炉用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>交易价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4460-4510</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">观点总结：受利比亚冲突升级及伊朗抗议活动提振，<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油大幅收高，短期有望站上<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>美元关口。华东地区混调油市场报价坚挺，市场延续价高量淡行情，供需双方对市场抱持观望态度；华南地区混调油市场持稳，个商家购买欲望不强，非标油市场报价增多平稳为主。原油维持涨势支撑动燃料油市场，上行空间仍需关注需求恢复情况。沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约收跌，期价低开跌至<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线下方整理，短线回测<SPAN lang=EN-US>4800</SPAN>支撑，呈现<SPAN lang=EN-US>4800-4900</SPAN>区间震荡走势。操作上，区间交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">股指期货</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">瑞达期货：多空胶着，期指或震荡整理<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>道琼斯<SPAN lang=EN-US> 12058.02 -168.32 -1.38%<BR></SPAN>纳斯达克<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2737.41 -44.86 -1.61%<BR></SPAN>标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500 1306.33 -20.89 -1.57%<BR></SPAN>富时<SPAN lang=EN-US>100 5935.76 -58.25 -0.97%<BR></SPAN>德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX 7223.30 -49.02 -0.67%<BR></SPAN>法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAC40 4067.15 -43.20 -1.05%<BR>C0MEX</SPAN>黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1431.20 19.60 1.39%<BR>NYMEX</SPAN>原油<SPAN lang=EN-US> 99.63 2.66 2.74%<BR></SPAN>美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 77.055 0.241 0.31%<BR></SPAN>小结：美股周二大幅下跌，道指创一周来最大单日跌幅，原油期货在电子系统中一度突破每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>美元大关，美联储主席伯南克称能源价格的上涨可能将对美国经济复苏造成负面影响。欧股周二收低，金融股与部分石油股下挫；受强劲财报推动，意大利眼镜巨头<SPAN lang=EN-US>Luxottica</SPAN>股价上涨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1. </SPAN>政协大会明开幕，一号提案或提及民生，多份提案力推收入分配改革；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2. 2</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>PMI</SPAN>（制造业采购经理指数）为<SPAN lang=EN-US>52.2%</SPAN>，环比回落<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.7</SPAN>个百分点，预示经济继续走低的可能性加大；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3. </SPAN>今年新增信贷规模：<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.1</SPAN>万亿<SPAN lang=EN-US>-8.1</SPAN>万亿，四大行预增贷款规模<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.85</SPAN>万亿，与去年<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.5</SPAN>万亿相差不大；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>4. 2</SPAN>月全国<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>个城市住宅平均价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>8,686</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>平方米，较上月上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.48%</SPAN>，成交量全线下跌；<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR>5. </SPAN>银监会近期召开今年经济金融形势会议，关注信用和流动性风险；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>6. </SPAN>十二五规划或提出显著提高直接融资比重，两地上市公司将增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>成；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>7. </SPAN>国务院今将讨论上调个税起征点，普遍预测调至<SPAN lang=EN-US>3000</SPAN>元；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>8.</SPAN>美<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>ISM</SPAN>（供应管理学会）制造业指数升至近七年高点，而<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月营建支出连续第二个月走低；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>9.</SPAN>伯南克：虽原油价格正在上涨，且住房市场继续表现疲弱，但美国经济的增长动量仍在增强。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>持仓分析<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="1" Month="3" Year="2011"><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="1" Month="3" Year="2011">3<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月1</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>前</SPAN></st1:chsdate>20</SPAN>名多头主力持单（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1103</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>18683</SPAN>手，空头主力持仓（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1103</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>23625</SPAN>手，净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>4942</SPAN>手，净空持仓减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>177</SPAN>手。其中：前<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>名主力机构净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>6859</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>昨日股指冲高回落，多空主力若显谨慎，均以小幅减仓。其中，空军龙头中证期货再次增仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>662</SPAN>手，而<st1:PersonName w:st="on" ProductID="国泰">国泰</st1:PersonName>君安则大幅减持空仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>624</SPAN>，表明空头内部分歧较大，而多头减仓主要在于调整。持仓动向表明，多空双方将在当前高点争夺或将激烈，结合成交量情况和基本面，股指仍有较大上升空间和动力，有望继续冲高并突破新高。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>IF1103</SPAN>合约周二收盘报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3254.4</SPAN>点，预计<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1103</SPAN>合约周三在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3290-3225</SPAN>之间运行，如上方冲破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3290</SPAN>点可以介入多单，止损上设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点；如下方破点<SPAN lang=EN-US>3225</SPAN>可以小空，止损上设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点。如在区间内窄幅震荡，可以高空低多的策略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>合约名称<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>HS300 3325 3275 3210 3160<BR>IF1103 3350 3290 3225 3175<BR>IF1104 3375 3300 3250 3200<BR>IF1106 3420 3345 3295 3245 <BR>IF1109 3465 3390 3340 3290<BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">『免责声明：期市瞬息万变，盘中突发消息也将影响走势突变，投资人应盘
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