<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">金属产品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>：纽约商品期货交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>(COMEX)</SPAN>期金本周四先扬后抑，有报导称沙特阿拉伯正商讨增加产量弥补利比亚的原油供应缺口<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>缓和了市场对油价飙升及利比亚局势紧张的忧虑。<SPAN lang=EN-US>COMEX</SPAN>金尾盘快速下挫<SPAN lang=EN-US>,comex</SPAN>金<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月开盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>1412.0</SPAN>，最高触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>1418.8</SPAN>，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>1395.9</SPAN>，收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>1415.8</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息方面：本周四公布的数据显示，欧元区<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月商业景气指数为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.45</SPAN>预期中值为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.61</SPAN>，美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月耐用品订单月比上升<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.7%</SPAN>预期中值月升<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.9%</SPAN>，截至<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="2" Day="19" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>19</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>当周美国首次申请失业金人数为<SPAN lang=EN-US>39.1</SPAN>万人预期中值为<SPAN lang=EN-US>40.5</SPAN>万人，就业数据略有提升，但整体数据仍偏软，美国道琼斯工业指数连续第<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>个交易日下挫，市场仍未摆脱近期政治动荡的阴影影响，<SPAN lang=EN-US> Comex</SPAN>金<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月开盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>1412.0</SPAN>，最高触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>1418.8</SPAN>，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>1395.9</SPAN>，收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>1415.8</SPAN>，成交<SPAN lang=EN-US>175906</SPAN>手，持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>331160</SPAN>手。截至<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="2" Day="24" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>24</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，世界最大的黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US>ETF SPDR</SPAN>持仓量<SPAN lang=EN-US>1211.57</SPAN>，再次逆势减仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.67</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US>9999</SPAN>收盘报<SPAN lang=EN-US>299.05</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.75</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，成交<SPAN lang=EN-US>4708.6</SPAN>手<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>观点总结：近期北非局势的进展将决定金价短期是否能突破历史新高，如局势略有缓和，价格由于涨速过快积累的大量获利盘回吐将短期打压金价，注意<SPAN lang=EN-US>SPDR</SPAN>继续逆势减仓令金市信心受挫，技术上价格与指标已形成<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>小时级别背离，随时可能出现向<SPAN lang=EN-US>1393</SPAN>及<SPAN lang=EN-US>1370</SPAN>附近的修正走势，短线投资者我们已建议逢高离场观望，等待价格回落后的进场机会。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>短线支撑：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1393 1370 </SPAN>短线阻力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1425 1430<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">锌、铝<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜，伦锌小幅下挫，<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线岌岌可危，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2474</SPAN>美元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.80%</SPAN>；伦铝微弱反弹，成交量继续萎缩，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2540</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.39%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月份耐用品订单增幅超预期<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2.</SPAN>美国就业市场形势继续好转<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>18750-18850</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上交易日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>570-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>470</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>18700-18800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>620-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>520</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>A00 </SPAN>铝报在<SPAN lang=EN-US>16680-16700</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>120-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>库存方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>708425</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>175</SPAN>吨，上海交易所锌期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>288340</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>602</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铝库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4615500</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>5000</SPAN>吨，上海交易所铝期现货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>268022</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>345</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>观点总结：基本面上，供求过剩的局面尚未改变。资金面上，沪铝主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单减少至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9000</SPAN>手以下，变化幅度不大；沪锌前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单增加至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.4</SPAN>万手左右，有新空单进场。整体来看，锌铝净空单数量仍处于高位，资金操作偏空。技术显示，沪锌、沪铝下跌基本到位，下方空间有限。操作建议：沪锌逢低轻仓短多，破<SPAN lang=EN-US>18950</SPAN>止损；沪铝谨慎观望。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="8" UnitName="mm">8mm</st1:chmetcnv> Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4810</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="20" UnitName="mm"><SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>5020</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>(1) 1</SPAN>月份美国钢材进口量同比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>23%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) </SPAN>铁矿石定价机制走向指数化 中钢协呼吁用外储买资源；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) 2010</SPAN>年工业原料行业平稳粗钢产量<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>年增<SPAN lang=EN-US>78.5%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US>(4) </SPAN>印度粉矿<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="2" Day="24" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>24</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>194</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>3000</SPAN>吨，持平。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">小结：周四<SPAN lang=EN-US>RB1110</SPAN>合约仍难改弱势行情。外围动荡仍在延续，原油继续攀升又让投资者担心原油上涨影响美国经济发展从而引发美元下跌；原本支撑沪钢上涨的现货价也出现了一定的松动，但原材料依然维持在高位运行，因此在双重影响下，不易盲目建仓。操作上建议：多空依托<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线操作，注意控制风险。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铜<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：隔夜伦铜结束连续七日的下跌行情，震荡收高，盘中最低跌至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9311</SPAN>，尾盘在市场厌恶情绪下跌和美国强劲的经济数据的提振下，大幅上扬，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.53%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9515</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，目前铜价再度回到<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线之上，短期有望展开小幅反弹。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美国劳工市场有所改善，<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="2" Day="19" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>19</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>当周初请失业金人数降至<SPAN lang=EN-US>39.1</SPAN>万人，分析师此前预估为<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>万人，之前一周修正后为<SPAN lang=EN-US>41.3</SPAN>万人。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2. </SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月新屋销售年率为<SPAN lang=EN-US>28.4</SPAN>万户，差于预期的<SPAN lang=EN-US>31</SPAN>万户，表明美国房屋市场依旧疲软。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：上海金属网铜现货报价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>71000-71350</SPAN>，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>375</SPAN>，今日铜价延续回调走势，现货相较期货继续保持贴水状态，表明现货抗跌性不强；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.56-7.59</SPAN>，日内比价呈现高开低走走势，且继续处于低位运行，表明沪铜上涨无力，难以引领伦铜走出弱势。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="2" Day="23" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>23</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>伦铜库存增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>975</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>412675</SPAN>，目前注销仓单处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.84%</SPAN>，仍处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>之下，再结合伦铜库存的季节性变化，预计后期库存有望继续增加。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：隔夜伦铜触底反弹，受美国强劲的经济数据提振，且利比亚动乱有所缓解，原油价格自高位大幅回落。昨日沪铜最低跌至<SPAN lang=EN-US>71020</SPAN>，即将接近<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>均线，在此有望引发部分买盘，今日沪铜料开至<SPAN lang=EN-US>72000</SPAN>附近，料以反弹为主，建议前期空单继续适当减仓观望。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"> <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">谷物<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：周四<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米期货市场收跌，不过受强劲需求及持续供应担忧影响，玉米有望自本周<SPAN lang=EN-US>31</SPAN>个月高位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>下跌近<SPAN lang=EN-US>4%</SPAN>之后企稳。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、渣打银行称中国玉米库存偏低，需进口玉米；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、日本农业部举行招标会，寻购饲料小麦<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>和大麦；<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、湖南汉寿优质稻种植面积达<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>万亩。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：由于市场看涨预期强烈，国内玉米现货价格继续上涨，河北衡水饲料厂玉米收购价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/ </SPAN>吨上下，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。东北港口玉米市场表现坚挺，大连港内玉米平舱报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2130-2140</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨以上的水平<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>，水分<SPAN lang=EN-US>15%</SPAN>；广东港口玉米价格走势相对平稳，港内质量较好的玉米主流成交价仍在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2230-2240</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，但议<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>价空间有所放大，眼下港口玉米库存加未卸在<SPAN lang=EN-US>26</SPAN>万吨左右，由于近期港口玉米到货可能较集中，加上企业前<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>期采购较积极，因此观望气氛依然较浓。郑州强筋小麦出库价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2390</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；江西九江早稻收购价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>水分<SPAN lang=EN-US>≤3.5%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存方面：玉米仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1199</SPAN>张，郑州强麦仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>13606</SPAN>张，早籼稻仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7056</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：现货报价表现坚挺，玉米期价中长期上涨趋势未变，操作上可依托<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>日均线逢低买入；受北方部分地区旱情缓解及政策压力加大影响，<SPAN lang=EN-US>WS1109</SPAN>合约短期或延续偏弱态势，但期价在大幅回调后技术上有修复的需求，建议采取逢高沽空操作；缺乏基本面指引，早籼稻期价跟随周边谷物运行，短期震荡思路对待。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">在欧盟批准零关税进口食糖以及俄罗斯下调原糖进口关税的刺激下，周四<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>美国＃<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>原糖期货市场出现一波反弹，其中<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月合约收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>30.22</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅，全天上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>28</SPAN>个点。<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月合约收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>27.83</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅，全天上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>47</SPAN>个点。交易商称，市场连跌几日后，技术上也有反弹的需求，不过技术面上看并不乐观，反弹后可能会招致多头进一步平仓盘的打压。本月底<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月合约即将期满摘牌。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010/2011</SPAN>年榨季糖料蔗收购价格再次实行提前联动，普通糖料蔗收购首付价格提前联动到<SPAN lang=EN-US>482</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、印度或考虑出口大米、小麦和食糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">国内现货小幅下调，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7220</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3872</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3071</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">国内主产区天气情况：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">今天白天到晚上，全区大部小雨转阴天；早晨全区大部有雾。南宁市<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>今天白天到晚上，阴转多云，有雾，东南风<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-2</SPAN>级，最高气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="23" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>23</SPAN>℃</st1:chmetcnv>，最低气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="17" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>17</SPAN>℃</st1:chmetcnv>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约延续回调走势，但目前期价逼近<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线，该位置对期价能否形成支撑将是到后期价格变化的重要关键。操作上，可逢高抛空，并关注多<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>空<SPAN lang=EN-US>1201</SPAN>的套利机会。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">油脂<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>外盘：大豆库存预期紧缩及需求稳固持续提供支撑，助其 自早盘跌势中企稳，<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>豆油自低位震荡，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>55.28 </SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅；来自于炼厂和基金减仓卖压，<SPAN lang=EN-US>BMD</SPAN>棕榈油期货周四下 探回升，收盘脱离三个月低点，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月合约下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>57</SPAN>令吉收于<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3457</SPAN>令吉<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息：国际方面，油世界表示，从去年的<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月份到今年的<SPAN lang=EN-US>1 </SPAN>月份，这四个月里，全球豆油的出口量达到了<SPAN lang=EN-US>336</SPAN>万吨，比上年 增长了<SPAN lang=EN-US>38%</SPAN>，刷新历史最高纪录。国内方面，自<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="1" Day="1" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="1" Day="1" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>起</st1:chsdate> ，中国调整入境食用油检疫标准，旨在增加食用植物油进口； 今年起，对进境后不再进行分装或加工的预包装食用植物油， 不再要求随附检疫证书。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货：受期货市场持续下跌影响，昨日油脂现货报价继续下滑，幅度在<SPAN lang=EN-US>50-100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右水平。沿海四级豆油约为<SPAN lang=EN-US>10050 -10350</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；港口棕榈油报价集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9650-10050</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；国内 四级菜油出厂价格处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>9800-10800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">仓单：豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>7325</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>4500</SPAN>张；棕榈油 ，<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>张，无变化；菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>13928</SPAN>张，较上一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>460</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：市场利多题材逐渐消化，而利空题材不断出现，近期油脂的大幅回调正显示了短期依然在寻求企稳。另一方 面，原油价格不断走高，受到价格压制的小包装酝酿涨价，上 游与下游产品之间必然要寻求一个均衡。就操作而言，豆油已跌破万元支撑，菜籽油也跌至万元附近，短期仍未见企稳，保 持偏空思路，暂时观望为佳。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期棉大幅下跌，受<SPAN lang=EN-US>USDA</SPAN>报告打压。指标<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE-5</SPAN>月期棉合约收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.7723</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>下挫<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、据海关统计，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年山东口岸进口棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>113.8</SPAN>万吨，价值<SPAN lang=EN-US>22.5</SPAN>亿美元，比去年（下同）分别增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>42%</SPAN>和<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>倍；进口平均价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1979</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>42.6%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、<st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="2" Day="23" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>23</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，进口棉中国主港报价继续下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>5-7</SPAN>美分，中亚棉下跌了<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>美分，埃及长绒棉略有上涨。国内外棉价已连续大幅回调几日，进口棉市场非常平静。不过，这并不会改变近期外棉将集中到港的事实。短期来看，纺织企业的库存尚能维持，补库需求并不强烈。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>30365</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，与上一交易日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>334</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>427</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">主产区天气：未来三天，西北地区东部、内蒙古大部、华北、黄淮、西南地区东部、江汉、江淮、江南大部、华南北部和西部将先后出现小到中雨（雪）或雨夹雪天气，其中，湖北东北部、河南东南部、安徽北部等地局部有大雨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：<SPAN lang=EN-US>USDA</SPAN>报告显示一些农产品种植面积较大，引发棉花市场出现大量抛售，美棉延续跌势。央行再度上调存款准备金率，政策面收紧打压市场信心。国内现货价格微幅上涨，期价价差进一步缩窄。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约大幅收跌，期价受<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线打压增仓下滑，短线进一步下探<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日线支撑，延续高位调整走势。操作上，短线交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">大豆豆粕<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、巴西降雨停止，大豆主产区大豆收割加速。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、财政 部官员称中国没有下调农产品关税的计划。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：受中东及北非政局动荡将放慢全球经济的持续担忧影响，周四<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>大豆期货市场收跌。美豆<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月，<SPAN lang=EN-US>1329.25</SPAN>美分，<SPAN lang=EN-US>-2.25 </SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、由于外盘近期连续走低，近月船期的成本核算下 滑，但是考虑到<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月到港量下降，油厂近期仍以高价大豆为 主。核算美豆<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月船期成本在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4440</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，核算巴西豆<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月船期在<SPAN lang=EN-US> 4360</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、今天豆粕现货价格继续下跌，但跌幅放缓，目前沿海地区价格基本在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300-3350</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">天气：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、阿根廷中部大豆主产区的天气有利于大豆作物鼓粒， 土壤水分充足，没有酷热天气。<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、巴西近期天气有利于作物成熟，部分地区收割中断，但无伤大局。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">盘面分析：在外盘反弹的情况下，豆类期价仍旧走跌，市场的弱势特征表现的比较明显。国内其他大多数品种同样走低，整 体的市场氛围已经发生变化。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">操作建议：豆类近期调整猛烈而迅速，期价的快速下跌打击了多头的信心，特别是今日盘面更显弱势。操作上，从风险的角 度考虑，建议前期的多单大部平仓，仅留少部分仓位观察市场 走势。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">连塑<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、中国<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月塑料制品出口量同比增<SPAN lang=EN-US>23.7% <BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格走势平稳。扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>10900</SPAN>，与昨日持平。东北亚乙烯报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1329——1331</SPAN>美元，东南亚乙烯报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1300——1302</SPAN>美元，均无涨跌。市场成交仍不活跃。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>18871</SPAN>张，较昨日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>240</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：今日连塑高开低走，上方均线的反压明显。基本面上，通胀压力大，货币政策收紧，对商品价格形成一定压制，但亚洲乙烯价格走势坚挺，且亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>利润空间狭小，目前即将进入农膜需求旺季则对连塑形成一定的支撑。预计短期将延续弱势整理格局，操作上，建议投资者不宜过份追空，以日内交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><BR>2 PVC<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、黑龙江昊华<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年聚氯乙烯装置进入单机调试阶段<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货市场走势不一。华东乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8300</SPAN>元，无涨跌，华东电石法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8000</SPAN>元，微跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元。西北电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3400</SPAN>元，华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3900</SPAN>元，均与上一交易日持平。市场成交不活跃。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1724</SPAN>张，与昨日持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>依托<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线窄幅整理，盘中显示其上有压力，下有支撑，短线仍处于一个区间整理的形态。基本面上，亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货价格坚挺、国内天气逐渐好转，下游需求有望逐渐恢复均为其提供了一定的支撑。但中东、北非政局动荡、国内货币政策持续收紧则对其形成一定的压制，预计<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>后市将有望突破上行，操作上，建议投资者暂以日内交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><BR>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">天胶<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：沪胶连续大幅回落并跌破重要支撑位引发市场对中国橡胶需求走弱的担忧，受此影响，<SPAN lang=EN-US>TOCOM</SPAN>橡胶周四冲高回落，七月合约报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>492.5</SPAN>日元，收盘微跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.7</SPAN>日元。预计后市仍将继续小幅回落，操作上，建议投资者暂以日内交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、印度急需订购<SPAN lang=EN-US>40000</SPAN>吨橡胶赶在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>31</SPAN>号前到港<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月印度尼西亚汽车销量暴涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>40%<BR> </SPAN>现货市场：上海市场橡胶现货价格全线止跌回稳。云南国标一号胶报<SPAN lang=EN-US>40200</SPAN>元，泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US>3#</SPAN>烟片报<SPAN lang=EN-US>45000</SPAN>元，丁苯橡胶<SPAN lang=EN-US>1502</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>26800</SPAN>元，高桥石化顺丁橡胶<SPAN lang=EN-US>BR9000</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>33000</SPAN>，均与昨日持平。市场成交仍不活跃。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>亚洲各橡胶主产区天气预报如下：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>曼谷<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="32" UnitName="℃">32℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="25" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>25℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>越南<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>河内<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阴<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="21" UnitName="℃">21℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="16" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>16℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>胡志明市<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>晴<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="33" UnitName="℃">33℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="22" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>22℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>马来西亚<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>吉隆坡<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="33" UnitName="℃">33℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="24" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>24℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>印尼<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雅加达<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阴<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="32" UnitName="℃">32℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="24" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>24℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>39400</SPAN>吨，较昨日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>45</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：今日沪胶高开低走，上方均线反压较为明显。基本面上，国内货币政策收紧、下游需求复苏缓慢、现货价格回落对沪胶形成一定的打压，预计短线仍有调整要求。但经连续大幅回落，沪胶短线有一定的反弹要求。操作上，建议投资者以日内短线交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4 PTA<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油小幅回落，因美国及其他国家称目前的石油库存足以弥补任何供应中断，<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 4</SPAN>月原油期货下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.82</SPAN>美元，报每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>97.28</SPAN>美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、绍兴远东石化计划在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月份对其三套<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>装置进行检修，其中每套装置产能为<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年，检修时间在一个月左右，三套装置轮流检修，三月至五月期间只运行两套装置。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、中石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>合约结算价出台至<SPAN lang=EN-US>13050</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货价格：华东<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场气氛观望，现货报盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11600-11650</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，下游需求疲弱，少量递盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，市场商谈重心在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11500-11550</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近展开，实盘清淡。亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场气氛观望，持货商主动报盘稀少，买家接货意向一般，台货商谈意向在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1470-1475</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，韩货商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1460-1465</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，市场交易气氛僵持。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>10540</SPAN>张，较上一交易日持平，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>994</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：国内央行紧缩货币政策持续对市场构成压制，棉花期价大跌带动<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>继续走弱；<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场实际商谈重心下调，聚酯工厂询盘气氛清淡。江浙涤丝持稳，部分涨一百到两百，主要织造基地开机逐步恢复；聚酯切片部分偏低报价小幅上调<SPAN lang=EN-US>, </SPAN>交投呈现观望。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA1105</SPAN>合约大幅下跌，期价受<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线压制减仓下挫，短线将延续回调走势。操作上，短线交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油小幅回落，因美国及其他国家称目前的石油库存足以弥补任何供应中断，<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 4</SPAN>月原油期货下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.82</SPAN>美元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.8%</SPAN>，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>97.28</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、亚洲燃料油周四在清淡交投中持坚，原油价格大幅波动促使投资者观望，燃料油的坚挺源于对东亚供给情况的持续担忧，因运费率的上涨使得西方<SPAN lang=EN-US>-</SPAN>东方套利窗口关闭。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、美国政府能源部门的一名高级官员称，如果利比亚国内日益严重的纷争导致该国原油出口中断，沙特阿拉伯可以在一个月内把本国的石油产量提高到足以取代利比亚所有石油出口的水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>23</SPAN>日黄埔到岸价，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>649.24</SPAN>美元，到岸贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>20-21</SPAN>美元，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>380</SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>636.21</SPAN>美元。华南混调油最新交易估价：船用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>交易过驳价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4720-4730</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；库提价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4730-4740</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，国产锅炉用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>交易价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4460-4510</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：因沙特阿拉伯、国际能源署（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IEA</SPAN>）及白宫称现有的库存足以弥补利比亚动荡局势升级造成的任何供应中断，<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油小幅回落，短期有望维持高位。华东地区混调油报价稳定，基本面过于疲软，市场消化前期调价尚需时日，交易仍较清淡；华南地区混调油市场受原料比较紧张支撑，市场保持稳中上涨趋势，非标油出货情况较好。原油大涨带动燃料油市场看涨心态，上行空间仍需关注需求恢复情况。沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约震荡收涨，期价冲高至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4900</SPAN>上方后有所回落，短线测试<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日线压力，将有望呈现震荡上行走势。操作上，冲高减仓，短线交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">股指期货</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">瑞达期货：市场情绪谨慎，期指延续震荡<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>道琼斯<SPAN lang=EN-US> 12068.50 -37.30 -0.31%<BR></SPAN>纳斯达克<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2737.90 14.91 0.55%<BR></SPAN>标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500 1306.10 -1.30 -0.10%<BR></SPAN>富时<SPAN lang=EN-US>100 5919.98 -3.55 -0.06%<BR></SPAN>德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX 7130.50 -64.10 -0.89%<BR></SPAN>法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAC40 4009.64 -3.48 -0.09%<BR>C0MEX</SPAN>黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1415.80 1.80 0.13%<BR>NYMEX</SPAN>原油<SPAN lang=EN-US> 97.28 -0.82 -0.84%<BR></SPAN>美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 77.031 -0.284 -0.37%<BR></SPAN>小结：美股周四连续第三个交易日下跌，投资者对利比亚局势以及油价走势仍感到不安。欧股周四收低，德国股市领跌，<SPAN lang=EN-US>RWE AG</SPAN>与安联<SPAN lang=EN-US>(Allianz AG)</SPAN>发布疲软财报后下跌，由于与大众汽车的合并前景堪忧，保时捷重挫近<SPAN lang=EN-US>10%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1. </SPAN>李克强：各地要及时制定房地产实施细则。各省份签<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>军令状<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>，今年<SPAN lang=EN-US>200</SPAN>余万套公租房建设规模是去年六倍；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2. </SPAN>公开市场连续<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>周净投放<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.05</SPAN>万亿元，货币市场资金面相对宽松；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3. </SPAN>银监会：放宽小企业不良贷款容忍度；创业板有望启用小额快速融资机制；；<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR>4. </SPAN>国家规划布局内重点软件企业公布<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>多家公司受益；<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR>5 </SPAN>奥巴马：就业是最大挑战<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>无需担心通胀和油价；<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR>6. </SPAN>美<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月新屋销售不及预期重跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>12.6%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR>7. </SPAN>美国上周首次申请失业救济人数减<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.2</SPAN>万；<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR>8. IMF</SPAN>：中国房地产价格可能会大幅回调。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>持仓分析<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="2" Day="24" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="2" Day="24" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on">2<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月24</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>前</SPAN></st1:chsdate>20</SPAN>名多头主力持单（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1103</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>18392</SPAN>手，空头主力持仓（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1103</SPAN>）<SPAN lang=EN-US>23485</SPAN>手，净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>5093</SPAN>手，净空持仓减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>987</SPAN>手。其中：前<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>名主力机构净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>7467</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>昨日股指小幅收阳，市场表现为止跌后再次反弹势头。但持仓来看，昨日多空主力均小幅减仓以避险。值得注意的是空头巨头（前<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>名）减仓非常显著，中证期货大幅减仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>1773</SPAN>，近期较为少见。持仓动向表明，中东局势变动加剧市场未来风险，日内盘中<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>过山车<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>走势表明这一点。结合成交量放大情况看，股指日线修复基本完成，短期转好，后市向上概率较大。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>主力合约<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1103</SPAN>周四报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3193.2</SPAN>点，预计周五<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1103</SPAN>合约运行区间在：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3210-3145</SPAN>点之间。如上方冲破<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3210 </SPAN>点可以小多，止损下设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点；如下方破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3145</SPAN>点，可以介入空单，止损上设<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>个点。如在区间内窄幅震荡，可以高空低多的策略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>合约名称<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>HS 300 3220 3200 3130 3090<BR>IF1103 3230 3210 3145 3100<BR>IF1104 3250 3230 3165 3120<BR>IF1106 3300 3280 3220 3190<BR>IF1109 3340 3320 3255 3230<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">『免责声明：期市瞬息万变，盘中突发消息也将影响走势突变，投资人应盘
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