瑞达期货 发表于 2011-2-22 09:19

<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">瑞达期货：<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="02" Day="22" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>02</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>22</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>宏观视点<SPAN lang=EN-US><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">[</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">全球主要指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>]<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><st1:chsdate Year="2011" Month="2" Day="21" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">月<SPAN lang=EN-US>21</SPAN>日</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">收盘：上证指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>2932.25</SPAN>，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.12%</SPAN>；沪深<SPAN lang=EN-US>300</SPAN>指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>3257.91</SPAN>，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.43%</SPAN>；中小板指<SPAN lang=EN-US>6681.13</SPAN>，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.76%</SPAN>；恒生指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 23485.42</SPAN>，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.47%</SPAN>；<SPAN style="COLOR: black">德<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX 7321.81 </SPAN>跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.41%</SPAN>；道琼工业<SPAN lang=EN-US>-.- </SPAN>涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>-.-%</SPAN>；纳斯达克<SPAN lang=EN-US>-.- </SPAN>涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>-.-%</SPAN>；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">人民币兑美元中间价<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.5705</SPAN>，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>76</SPAN>基点；<SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black">CRB</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black">指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>672.99 </SPAN>涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.94%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US>BDI 1295 </SPAN>跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.46%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US>GlobalCoal</SPAN>煤炭价格周指（<SPAN lang=EN-US>NEWC INDEX 126.64 </SPAN>涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.41%</SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>RB INDEX 118.07 </SPAN>涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.19%</SPAN>）</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">[</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">瑞达国内宏观观点<SPAN lang=EN-US>]<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">1.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">经过多年的抵触之后，<SPAN lang=EN-US>G20</SPAN>峰会上，中国政府有保留的同意国际社会对其备受批评的汇率政策进行严密的审视。<SPAN style="BACKGROUND: white">公报提及汇率政策，是中国在允许人民币小幅升值之后首次暗示愿意进一步升值。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><BR>2.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; BACKGROUND: white; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">汇丰<SPAN lang=EN-US>(HSBC)</SPAN>周一公布，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月汇丰中国制造业采购经理人指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>(PMI)</SPAN>预览降至<SPAN lang=EN-US>51.5</SPAN>的七个月低位，暗示紧缩政策不断加码，令制造业景气有所下降。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><BR>3.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; BACKGROUND: white; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">财政部：全国国有企业<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年实现利润<SPAN lang=EN-US>19870.6</SPAN>亿元，同比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>37.9%</SPAN>，其中化工、电力、有色、交通等行业利润增长超过<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>倍。国企利润非常可观。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">[</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">瑞达国际宏观观点<SPAN lang=EN-US>]<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">1. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">昨日美国休市，但交易并不清淡。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">利比亚示威冲突继续升级，北非紧张局势加剧令市场避险情绪上升，美元指数昨日震荡上行，原油及黄金出现较大波动，原油期货昨日飙升。<SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">2. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">昨日公布的德法经济数据利好频传：</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月综合<SPAN lang=EN-US>PMI</SPAN>初值触及纪录新高升至<SPAN lang=EN-US>61.5</SPAN>；德国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">月份<SPAN lang=EN-US>Ifo</SPAN>商业景气指数升至历史高点<SPAN lang=EN-US>111.2</SPAN>；</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月综合<SPAN lang=EN-US>PMI</SPAN>升至<SPAN lang=EN-US>59.5</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black">。欧元区核心国经济显示强劲复苏态势。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">今日关注重点：</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN">美国2月谘商会消费者信心指数；美国2月里奇蒙德联储制造业指数；加拿大12月零售销售；德国3月Gfk消费者信心指数；瑞士1月UBS消费指数；瑞士1月贸易帐；日本1月商品贸易帐</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">[</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">观点总结<SPAN lang=EN-US>]<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">中国周日上调汽油和柴油价格，意在反映国际原油价格的上涨，但此举也有可能使政府的抗通胀行动变得更加复杂。去年<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月下旬也曾有过一次油价上调。本次宣布上调仅一天以前，央行将银行的存款准备金率上调<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.5</SPAN>个百分点，以回笼过剩流动性，遏制消费价格；两天以前，商务部发布一项旨在防范物价和主食供应大起大落的措施。从目前调控的频率和节奏来看，紧缩货币政策趋势明显。<SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">欧元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>美元（利空）；美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>日元（利空）；美指（利好）；德国国债收益率（利空）；美国国债收益率（利好）；日本国债收益率（利好）；<SPAN lang=EN-US>LIBOR</SPAN>隔夜（利好）；<SPAN lang=EN-US>EURIBOR</SPAN>隔夜（利空）<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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