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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">金属产品</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">锌、铝<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜，伦锌冲高回落，成交量明显放出，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2445</SPAN>美元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.04%</SPAN>；伦铝微幅下跌，日线收十字阴星，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2470</SPAN>美元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.58%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月工厂订单意外上升<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.7% 2.</SPAN>欧元区通胀率高于央行目标<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>18700-18800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>835-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>735</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>18650-18750</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>885-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>785</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>A00 </SPAN>铝报在<SPAN lang=EN-US>16350-16370</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>70</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>160-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>140</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>701425</SPAN>吨，与上交易日持平，上海交易所锌期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>235963</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1924</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铝库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4274975</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>2075</SPAN>吨，上海交易所铝期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>298215</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>251</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：基本面上，供求过剩的局面尚未改变。资金面上，沪铝<SPAN lang=EN-US>1104</SPAN>合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单在<SPAN lang=EN-US>5000</SPAN>手左右；沪锌前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单增加至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>万手左右。技术显示，市场向上突破后出现分化，沪锌或出现震荡整理，沪铝仍呈强势。操作建议：沪锌多单持有，谨慎者可先获利离场，逢回调时重新介入，止损位<SPAN lang=EN-US>19300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，；沪铝多单持有，止损位<SPAN lang=EN-US>16800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铜<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：昨日伦铜盘中再创历史新高<SPAN lang=EN-US>9751</SPAN>，但晚间自高位回落，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.24%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9568</SPAN>，受投资者获利了结打压。目前铜价微破<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日均线，下方向<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日均线寻求支撑。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月工厂订单增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.7%</SPAN>，预期为下滑<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.1%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>市场认为大型基金抛售期铜以调整持仓量。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现铜报<SPAN lang=EN-US>70450-71000</SPAN>元，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>450</SPAN>，现货上涨意愿依旧较低。<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>两市比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.47-7.48</SPAN>，在上涨行情之中，比价有所回升，表明沪铜涨势稍强于伦铜。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存：伦铜库存增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>125</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>377675</SPAN>，伦铜库存连续第<SPAN lang=EN-US>14</SPAN>日增加，总计增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>29050</SPAN>，目前注销仓单处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.48%</SPAN>附近，库存增加的预期有所减弱。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：昨日伦铜在创下历史高点之后出现大幅回落，因市场担忧大型基金抛售期铜以调整持仓量，而且高位铜价亦引发了部分获利了结盘，今日沪铜料低开至<SPAN lang=EN-US>71400</SPAN>，并有望向<SPAN lang=EN-US>70000</SPAN>寻求支撑，鉴于铜价上涨动力仍在，建议投资者倾向于保持逢低买入思路。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="8" UnitName="mm"><SPAN lang=EN-US>8mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4720</SPAN>，持平，<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="20" UnitName="mm"><SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4840</SPAN>，持平<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>(1) </SPAN>淡水河谷或对出口中国矿提价<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.8</SPAN>％<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) </SPAN>澳大利亚遭重大水灾抬升煤炭价格<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>中国进口受影响<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) </SPAN>媒体称：多城市楼市限购令延续执行<SPAN lang=EN-US>(4) </SPAN>印度粉矿<st1:chsdate IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="4" Month="1" Year="2011" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>176-178</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持平<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>25548</SPAN>，持平。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>小结：周二<SPAN lang=EN-US>RB1105</SPAN>合约重心上移，节后开市第一天，主流市场现货报价走高，对期市带来支撑，但面对<SPAN lang=EN-US>4850</SPAN>高位，多头仍显犹豫，操作上建议，短线多单逢高减仓。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：昨日黄金放量下跌，其中<SPAN lang=EN-US>COMEX12</SPAN>月黄金大跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.12%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1388</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>盎司。昨日金价的跌幅基本抹去了近几日的涨幅，下方有望向<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线<SPAN lang=EN-US>1376</SPAN>寻求支撑。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月工厂订单增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.7%</SPAN>，预期为下滑<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.1%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.4</SPAN>日黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US>SPDR</SPAN>基金黄金持有量减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.25</SPAN>吨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1274.46</SPAN>吨，为<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>月初以来的低点。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US>9999</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>297.1</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.7</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，跌幅为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.56% <BR></SPAN>观点总结：昨日外盘黄金大跌，且交易量有所放大，因交易商在假期后重返市场，高价黄金引发了获利了结盘，今日沪金料大幅低开，下方有望再次测试<SPAN lang=EN-US>300</SPAN>一线的支撑，在全球经济企稳走强的预期下，黄金的避险需求有所减弱，目前出现调整迹象，建议投资者可尝试短空。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>由于美元升值导致市场对有形商品的需求减少，本周二<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>糖市原糖期货价格全线暴跌。<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>当日<SPAN lang=EN-US>1103</SPAN>期约糖价暴暴跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>112</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>-3.4%</SPAN>），收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>31.00</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅，上周四糖价曾狂泻<SPAN lang=EN-US>10%</SPAN>，创下了<st1:chsdate IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="12" Month="11" Year="2011" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>以来的单日最大跌幅，周三<SPAN lang=EN-US>1103</SPAN>期约糖价一度冲击了<SPAN lang=EN-US>1980</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月份以来<SPAN lang=EN-US>34.77</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅的高点；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>期约糖价同时暴跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>102</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>-3.5%</SPAN>），以<SPAN lang=EN-US>28.30</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅报收。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、新制糖前三月马邦产糖产量同比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>10.9%<BR>2</SPAN>、泰国新制糖年迄今糖产量同比下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>26% <BR></SPAN>国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内现货小幅上调，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7000</SPAN>（新糖）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>4119</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>745</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内主产区天气情况：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>北部湾海面：今晚到明天，阴天有小雨，东北风<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>级，阵风<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>级；合浦到东兴沿海各地台风警报站，所挂强风信号一号风球不<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>改变。冰冻橙色预警今晚到明天，全区阴冷有小雨，其中资源、全州、兴安、灌阳、南丹等高寒山区有雨夹雪、冰冻或冻雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>日，全区阴冷有小雨，其中桂北局部有中雨，桂北高寒山区有雨夹雪、冰冻或冻雨。森林火险：桂西北、桂中<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级，其它<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1</SPAN>级。<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>南宁市：今晚到明天，阴天有小雨，东北风<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-2</SPAN>级，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="5" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>5℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>，最高气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="9" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>9℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约受外盘元旦节间上涨影响，反弹回补节前向下跳空缺口。目前价位多空相对平衡，现货滞涨制约期价反弹力度<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>，预计短期内维持横盘震荡走势。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">谷物<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米期货周二下跌至两周低点，因商品市场普遍出现抛盘，且预期较为凉爽湿润的天气将<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>缓解阿根廷作物压力。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、本周二临储玉米投放量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>22.8761</SPAN>万吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、山东启动<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年小麦种植面积核定工作；<SPAN lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN>、越南<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年大米出口量料超过<SPAN lang=EN-US>600</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：目前南北港口玉米价格暂表现平稳态势，虽北方港口库存压力依旧存在，但受东北产地近<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>期农民惜售玉米收购困难等因素影响，基本与元旦前持平，三个港口玉米平舱价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2060-2070</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨不变；<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>广东港口截止目前玉米库存接近<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>万吨，较上周末略有增加，一等新玉米成交价仍在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2150-2160</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，一<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>等陈玉米成交价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2170-2180</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均与节前持平，春节临近，饲料企业即将进入集中备货期，预计广东<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>玉米价格将得到支撑；郑州强筋小麦出库价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2370</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持平；江西九江早稻收购价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，水分<SPAN lang=EN-US>≤ 13.5%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存方面：玉米仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1350</SPAN>张，郑州强麦仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>12846</SPAN>张，早籼稻仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>6994</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：现货需求为期价提供稳固支撑，受国储轮入玉米预期影响，后市期价或震荡偏强；强麦下方支撑稳固，而产区干旱未见缓解，天气炒作略显苗头，建议震荡偏强思路对待；资金关注度低，<SPAN lang=EN-US>ER1105</SPAN>合约短期或延续窄幅震荡，操作上建议观望为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">油脂<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：大范围商品抛售掩盖了国际植物油市场上涨带给盘初豆油期货的支撑，美豆油继续走低，<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>豆油主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月合约收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>56.85</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息：国际方面，船运调查机构<SPAN lang=EN-US>ITS</SPAN>称，马来西亚<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月棕榈<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>油出口料较前月下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>15%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>129</SPAN>万吨，接近市场预期的<SPAN lang=EN-US>125-130</SPAN>万<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>吨。国内方面，江苏淮阴市场豆油价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年元旦佳节之际<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>平稳运行，一级豆油出厂批发价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>10000</SPAN>元／吨，四级豆油出厂<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>批发价<SPAN lang=EN-US>9800</SPAN>元／吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货：昨日油脂现货价格大幅提高，棕榈油涨幅较大。沿<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>海四级豆油约为<SPAN lang=EN-US>10100-10350</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；港口棕榈油报价集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US> 9900-9950</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；国内四级菜油出厂价格处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>10000-10600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/ </SPAN>吨水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单：豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>745</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>745</SPAN>张；棕榈油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>0 </SPAN>张，无变化；菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>7100</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1000</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：目前，外盘延续高位整理，而国内油脂在震荡<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>中继续走高。短期内，只要国家调控措施没有再度出台，在油<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>脂重心依然趋于上移的格局下，维持一月上旬油脂类看涨观点<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>，豆油趋势多单根据投资者自身情况进行持有，建议止损价格<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>设在<SPAN lang=EN-US>10000-10050</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，短线投资者可轻仓短多。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">大豆豆粕<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFTC</SPAN>报告显示<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>大豆期货和期权部位上增持多头部位。截至上周二，商品基金在<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>大豆期货及期权上持有<SPAN lang=EN-US>186612</SPAN>手净多单，比一周前增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>14290</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、阿根廷未来两日有降雨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：外盘近两日，阿根廷天气的变化使得期价高位调整，<SPAN lang=EN-US>1400</SPAN>美分处仍有较大阻力，近期需提防期价的获利了结压力。目前<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月合约期价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1369.5</SPAN>美分，下跌了<SPAN lang=EN-US>9.5</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货市场：黑龙江大豆现货价格平稳，近期黑龙江大部分地区出现连续降雪，交易量明显下降，向关内发货的量也明显下降。豆粕现货报价节后报价较节前上涨，目前沿海地区油厂报价能在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3420</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨之上，但实际成交价格略低。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>天气：阿根廷未来两日有降雨出现，但是难以缓解目前的作为生长压力；未来七日，主要产区仍是炎热干燥的天气。<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>巴西预计未来两周将迎来稳定而大范围的降雨，同时，多少作物进入生长末期。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点：目前期价仍在反弹走势中，关注阿根廷天气的变化，前期建立的多单可继续持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期棉收涨，受澳洲洪水料损及产量忧虑提振。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月棉花涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.48</SPAN>美分，收报每磅<SPAN lang=EN-US>143.78</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、印度国营棉花公司称，印度<st1:chsdate IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="1" Month="10" Year="2011" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>-<st1:chsdate IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="2" Month="1" Year="2011" w:st="on">1<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月2</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>棉花到货量较去年同期增长8.2%</SPAN></SPAN>，至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1369</SPAN>万包左右，受主要种植地区天气干燥提振。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 2</SPAN>、印度政府及行业官员组成的一个小组将于<st1:chsdate IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="6" Month="1" Year="2011" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>举行会议，对该国本市场年度的棉花产量重新评估，此前的非季节性降雨对部分种植区造成了破坏。在全球供应短缺之际，产量预估的下调或将导致印度削减<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010/11</SPAN>年度棉花出口配额。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 3</SPAN>、<st1:chsdate IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="31" Month="12" Year="2011" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>31</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，进口棉中国主港报价普遍上涨，涨幅均超过<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>美分。由于纺织厂在年底资金压力较大，再加上棉价持续走低，导致现货市场交易一直平淡，<SPAN lang=EN-US>USDA</SPAN>公布的上周美棉销售情况也对此加以印证。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>27516</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，与上一交易日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>157</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>179</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>主产区天气：未来三天，西北地区中东部、东北东部、江汉南部、江南、华南大部、西南地区中东部等地有小到中雪（雨）或雨夹雪，其中，江南中北部、贵州中北部等地的部分地区有大雪；贵州中北部、湖南西部和南部等地的部分地区有冻雨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：因市场忧虑澳洲洪水或将损及棉花产量，美棉出现上涨；现货价格微幅上涨，维持滞涨抗跌态势，整体维持平稳局面；下游纱线市场形势逐渐好转，纺企备货积极性回升，部分纺企因对春节后棉价看涨，导致囤积原料的情绪有再度升温的迹象。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约小幅收跌，期价位于<SPAN lang=EN-US>28000</SPAN>关口整理，下方均线有所支撑，短线面临测试<SPAN lang=EN-US>29000</SPAN>压力，延续震荡走势。操作上，短线交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center; tab-stops: 18.0pt" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center; tab-stops: 18.0pt" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center; tab-stops: 18.0pt" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">连塑<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、聚乙烯产品升级实现高端突破<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、台塑石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>个乙烯厂接近满负荷运行<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格走势平稳。扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>11000</SPAN>，与昨日持平。市场成交一般。东北亚乙烯报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1204——1206</SPAN>美元，东南亚乙烯报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1094——1096</SPAN>美元，均无涨跌。市场观望气氛浓厚。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>27743</SPAN>张，较上一交易日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>95</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日连塑跳空高开，盘中基本维持震荡攀升格局，持仓量也大幅加升，显示下方承接有力。基本面上，原油高位震荡、亚洲乙烯价格坚挺，国内乙烯减产令市场供应略微趋紧，下游制品产量出口量大增，这些因素对连塑形成一定的支撑。预计后市有望重<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="1" NumberType="5" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="10" UnitName="升">拾升</st1:chmetcnv>势。操作上，投资者手中多单可继续谨慎持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><BR>2 PVC<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、昊华宇航化工有限责任公司通过节能项目竣工验收<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、山东省确定<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年节能减排总值能耗不低于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.66%<BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货价格小幅回升。华东地区乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8300</SPAN>元，与上一交易日持平。电石法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7900</SPAN>元，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元。西北电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>4000</SPAN>元，华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>4300</SPAN>元，均与节前持平。市场成交一般。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3784</SPAN>张，与昨日持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>震荡回升，盘中增仓明显，显示下方承接仍较有力。基本面上，央行年内二度加息、节能减排任务基本完成、交易所仓单快速回升对<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>形成一定的制约，但原油、乙烯走势坚挺，且北方天气恶劣，春运又近在眼前，这些因素将对<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>产生一定的支撑。预计<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>短期走势仍有反复。操作上，建议投资者以日内交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><BR>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">天胶<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：受良好基本面及日元回落的影响，<st1:chsdate IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="4" Month="1" Year="2011" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>TOCOM</SPAN>橡胶期货继续跳空上行，五月合约报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>427</SPAN>日元，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>14.1</SPAN>日元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.41%</SPAN>。预计短期日胶仍有冲击前期高点的潜力，手中多单可继续谨慎持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、越南统计总局<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>越南<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月橡胶出口量预计同比增<SPAN lang=EN-US>17.6%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、象牙海岸前<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>个月橡胶出口同比增<SPAN lang=EN-US>10.3%<BR> </SPAN>现货市场：上海市场橡胶现货价格明显回升。云南国标一号胶报<SPAN lang=EN-US>36500</SPAN>元，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>500</SPAN>元。泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US>3#</SPAN>烟片胶<SPAN lang=EN-US>36800</SPAN>，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>300</SPAN>元。销售商有惜售心理。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>亚洲各橡胶主产区天气预报如下：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>曼谷<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阴<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="31" UnitName="℃">31℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="21" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>21℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>越南<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>河内<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阴<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="20" UnitName="℃">20℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="14" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>14℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>胡志明市<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阴<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="31" UnitName="℃">31℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="21" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>21℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>马来西亚<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>吉隆坡<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="30" UnitName="℃">30℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="23" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>23℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>印尼<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雅加达<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="31" UnitName="℃">31℃</st1:chmetcnv></SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="25" UnitName="℃"><SPAN lang=EN-US>25℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>45960</SPAN>吨，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日沪胶依托均线的支撑，放量增仓上行，显示市场人气转强。基本面上：原油高位震荡，现货价格坚挺及下游轮胎提价对天胶形成一定的支撑，预计后市天胶有望重<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="1" NumberType="5" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="10" UnitName="升">拾升</st1:chmetcnv>势。操作上，投资者手中多单可谨慎持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4 PTA<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油大幅收低，受获利回吐打压，<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 2</SPAN>月原油期货下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.17</SPAN>美元，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>89.39</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、江浙涤丝工厂销售维持良好，产销多在<SPAN lang=EN-US>100-150%</SPAN>，迎来新年开门红，涤丝多数工厂维持普涨态势。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货价格：华东<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场强劲上扬，持货商报盘涨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>10150-10200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，商家惜售心态明显，主流商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>10100-10150</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，市场商谈气氛良好。亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场持续大涨，市场主动报盘稀少，持货商多数封盘，少量台货商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1245-1250</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近展开，韩货商谈意向在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1230-1240</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>21297</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>220</SPAN>张，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>700</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：国内主流供应商<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>合同货报价出台至<SPAN lang=EN-US>10000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，这限制期价回落空间。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场报价继续上移，卖方出货不多，部分买家一万元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近可接盘。江浙涤丝稳中小幅上涨，下游织造、加弹年前备货逐步显现。部分聚酯切片报价继续上调，工厂货源偏低。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA1105</SPAN>合约大幅收涨，期价依托<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线支撑持续拉升，短线延续震荡上行走势。操作上，日内交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油期货下挫逾<SPAN lang=EN-US>2%</SPAN>，录得<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月中以来最大单日跌幅。因投资者在油价涨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>27</SPAN>个月高位后了结部分获利。<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 2</SPAN>月原油期货下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.17</SPAN>美元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.37%</SPAN>，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>89.38</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、大庆油田<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年生产原油<SPAN lang=EN-US>4000.0319</SPAN>万吨，生产天然气<SPAN lang=EN-US>29.9</SPAN>亿立方米，呈现持续稳产良好态势，连续<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>年实现原油<SPAN lang=EN-US>4000</SPAN>万吨持续稳产。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 2</SPAN>、美国能源情报署（<SPAN lang=EN-US>EIA)</SPAN>的数据显示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月份美国石油需求比去年增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.7%</SPAN>，达到自<SPAN lang=EN-US>2008</SPAN>年以来当月的最高水平。修正的需求平均每天<SPAN lang=EN-US>1893.9</SPAN>万桶，比去年每天增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>13.6</SPAN>万桶，但比初步估值每天下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.2</SPAN>万桶。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>日黄埔到岸价，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>526.64</SPAN>美元，到岸贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>12-13</SPAN>美元，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>380</SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>518.08</SPAN>美元。华南混调油最新交易估价：船用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>交易过驳价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4630-4640</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；库提价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4640-4650</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价持平，国产锅炉用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>交易价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4400-4450</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>美元反弹令原油市场出现获利了结，国际原油围绕<SPAN lang=EN-US>90</SPAN>美元剧烈震荡。华东燃料油市场表现平稳，市场资源不多，延续购销清淡局面；华南地区燃料油现货市场需求疲软，市场总体交投氛围淡静，渣油和非标油市场价格守稳。沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US>1103</SPAN>合约震荡回升，期价高开测试<SPAN lang=EN-US>4800</SPAN>关口压力，短线有望位于<SPAN lang=EN-US>4700-4850</SPAN>区间波动。操作上，区间交易思路。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">股指期货</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">瑞达期货：多头情绪犹存，期指或续五连阳<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>道琼斯<SPAN lang=EN-US> 11691.18 20.43 0.18%<BR></SPAN>纳斯达克<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2681.25 -10.27 -0.38%<BR></SPAN>标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500 1270.20 -1.67 -0.13%<BR></SPAN>富时<SPAN lang=EN-US>100 6013.87 113.93 1.93% <BR></SPAN>德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX 6975.35 -14.39 -0.21%<BR></SPAN>法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAC40 3916.03 15.17 0.39%<BR>C0MEX</SPAN>黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1378.8 -44.1 -3.10%<BR>NYMEX</SPAN>原油<SPAN lang=EN-US> 89.38 -2.17 -2.37%<BR></SPAN>美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 79.351 0.185 0.23%<BR></SPAN>小结<SPAN lang=EN-US>: </SPAN>周二美国股市收盘涨跌不一，道指再创两年新高。美联储会议纪要表明央行认为美国经济状况略有改善，并认为无需改变其规模巨大的购买国债计划。食品零售商股票评级普遍遭到调降，使大盘承受了压力。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>．央行推进货币政策工具改革，拟下调超额准备金率；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2. </SPAN>年初银行信贷<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>猛冲<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月规模破万亿；<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR>3. 12</SPAN>月我国<SPAN lang=EN-US>PMI</SPAN>为<SPAN lang=EN-US>53.9%</SPAN>，比上月回落<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.3</SPAN>个百分点，制造业增长放缓<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>通货膨胀有望缓解；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>4. </SPAN>一行三会（央行、证监会、银监会、保监会）会议陆续召开，信贷或减少，或多次加息；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>5. </SPAN>人民币对美元汇率中间价十连升再创新高，中间价报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>美元兑人民币<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.6215</SPAN>元；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>6. </SPAN>中国非制造业商务活动指数为<SPAN lang=EN-US>56.5%</SPAN>，比上月回升<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.3</SPAN>个百分点。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>7. </SPAN>美联储会议纪要表明认为美国经济状况略有改善，无需改变其规模巨大的购买国债计划；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>8. </SPAN>欧元区<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月通胀（<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.2%</SPAN>的<SPAN lang=EN-US>CPI</SPAN>）打破欧央行设定目标（<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.0%</SPAN>）；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>9. </SPAN>高盛：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2013</SPAN>年之前美联储或不会加息。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>持仓分析：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名多头主力持单<SPAN lang=EN-US>14547</SPAN>手，空头主力持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>18616</SPAN>手，净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>4069</SPAN>手，净空持仓减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>256</SPAN>手。其中：前<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>名主力机构净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>5696</SPAN>手，空头持仓维持在高位。从日内高频持仓变动看，尾盘出现较大幅度空头减持。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>从持仓动向来看，多空双方较上一交易日均采取增仓策略，但幅度不大。值得注意的是多空龙头<st1:PersonName w:st="on" ProductID="国泰">国泰</st1:PersonName>君安采取做多减空策略，唱多后市。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>股指期货主力合约<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1101</SPAN>周二收盘报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3192</SPAN>点，预计周三<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1101</SPAN>的运行区间在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3255-3150</SPAN>之间，如上方冲破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3255</SPAN>点可以小多，止损下设<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>个点；如下方破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3150</SPAN>可以介入空单，止损上设<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>个点。如在区间内窄幅震荡，可以高空低多的策略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>合约名称<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>HS300 3265 3225 3125 3075<BR>IF1101 3275 3255 3150 3100<BR>IF1102 3315 3295 3190 3140<BR>IF1103 3350 3330 3225 3175<BR>IF1106 3425 3405 3300 3250<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">『免责声明：期市瞬息万变，盘中突发消息也将影响走势突变，投资人应盘
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