<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">金属产品</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">铜<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜伦铜涨势趋缓，尾盘小幅下跌至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9345</SPAN>，周五为欧美圣诞假期，节前投资者有获利了结需求。但目前铜价处于均线之上运行，走势仍较强。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>韩国称<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年将增加铜，锡及锂库存，预期中国经济增长将带动旺盛需求。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>美国第三季度国内生产总值<SPAN lang=EN-US>GDP</SPAN>环比年率终值为增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.6%</SPAN>，预估为增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.8%</SPAN>，前值为增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.5%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现铜报<SPAN lang=EN-US>68000-68400</SPAN>元，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>450</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>475</SPAN>；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.45-7.52</SPAN>，继续处于低位震荡，表明内盘走势依旧较弱。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>库存：<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="22" Month="12" Year="2010"><SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>22</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铜库存增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1125</SPAN>吨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>363950</SPAN>吨，注销仓单占库存比为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.52%</SPAN>，近期伦铜库存连续第八日增加，总计增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>15175</SPAN>，目前注销仓单处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>之下，暗示库存增加势头有望延续。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：隔夜伦铜冲高回落，涨势有所放缓，主要受假日气氛影响，投资者多以离场观望为主。近两日的伦铜持仓量也大致表现为减少，铜价上行缺乏动力。昨日沪铜冲击<SPAN lang=EN-US>70000</SPAN>未果，尾盘大幅收跌，沪铜持仓亦表现为减少，年底资金压力有所体现。库存方面，伦铜库存连续第八天增加，其较低的注销仓单占比表明后期库存增势有望延续，在这样的背景之下，铜价料难以走高，今日沪铜料开于<SPAN lang=EN-US>69500</SPAN>，高开之后低走的可能性较大，建议投资者可采取逢高抛空的策略，上方关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>70000</SPAN>的阻力。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR><BR>2 </SPAN>黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜黄金继续窄幅波动，温和收跌，其中<SPAN lang=EN-US>COMEX12</SPAN>黄金上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.1%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1386.8</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>盎司，昨日有关于中国准备购买<SPAN lang=EN-US>40-50</SPAN>亿欧元的葡萄牙主权债务的报道，改善了市场对欧债危机的担忧，投资者纷纷撤出黄金和美元等避险资产。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：美国第三季度国内生产总值<SPAN lang=EN-US>GDP</SPAN>环比年率终值为增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.6%</SPAN>，预估为增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.8%</SPAN>，前值为增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.5%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="22" Month="12" Year="2010">12<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月22</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate>SPDR</SPAN>基金黄金持有量减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>9.41</SPAN>吨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1288.62</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US>9999</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>298.06</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.74</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，跌幅为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.25% <BR></SPAN>观点总结：隔夜黄金继续窄幅波动，尾盘温和收跌，最近几日黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US>SPDR</SPAN>基金不断减仓，表明其对金价走势不容乐观。昨日沪金高位震荡，持仓量大幅减少，年底资金压力有所体现。目前金市无特别的焦点，而且缺乏资金的参与，圣诞节前多空双方均比较保守，金价难改震荡格局，建议投资者离场观望为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">锌、铝<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜，伦锌横盘整理，日线收出<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>上吊<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>形态，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2334</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.16%</SPAN>；伦铝继续上涨，创出近期新高，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2461</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.36%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>内外盘比价情况：锌内外比价最高<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.17</SPAN>，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.01</SPAN>，铝内外比价位于<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.76-6.92</SPAN>之间。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美三季度<SPAN lang=EN-US>GDP</SPAN>增长逊于预期<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>英三季度<SPAN lang=EN-US>GDP</SPAN>增幅向下修正至<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.7%<BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>18250-18350</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>670-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>570</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>18200-18300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>720-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>620</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>A00 </SPAN>铝报在<SPAN lang=EN-US>16200-16220</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>80</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>180-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>160</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>698875</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>300</SPAN>吨，上海交易所锌期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>226165</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>299</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铝库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4275725</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>3850</SPAN>吨，上海交易所铝期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>303822</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>3106</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：基本面上，供求过剩的局面尚未改变。资金面上，沪铝主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单缩减至<SPAN lang=EN-US>7000</SPAN>手以下；沪锌前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单减少至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.2</SPAN>万手左右。技术显示，市场走势延续震荡，缺乏方向信号。操作建议：沪锌日内交易；沪铝逢低短多。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR><BR>4 <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">现货市场：<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="mm" SourceValue="8" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>8mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4750</SPAN>，持平，<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="mm" SourceValue="20" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4860</SPAN>，持平<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>(1) </SPAN>受复产影响，我国钢铁产量回升<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) </SPAN>多省遇“燃煤”之急 秦皇岛煤价不涨反跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) </SPAN>国土部加大政策力度坚决抑制地价过快上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>(4) </SPAN>印度<SPAN lang=EN-US>63.5%</SPAN>粉矿<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="22" Month="12" Year="2010"><SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>22</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>176-178</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>32964</SPAN>手，持平。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">小结：周三<SPAN lang=EN-US>RB1105</SPAN>合约受阻回落，目前原材料价仍较为坚挺，但股市及周边商品回落对期钢带来压力，操作上建议，短线多空以<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线为参考依据，注意风险控制。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期棉收于跌停，受累于获利了结及投资人在市场触及纪录高位后清仓，棉花市场在圣诞节长假前可能出现跟进卖压。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月棉花下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>美分，收报每磅<SPAN lang=EN-US>154.12</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、印度贸易部部长<SPAN lang=EN-US>Anand Sharma</SPAN>周二称，印度将在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010/11</SPAN>年度批准<SPAN lang=EN-US>250</SPAN>万包<SPAN lang=EN-US>(170</SPAN>公斤<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>包<SPAN lang=EN-US>)</SPAN>棉花出口。印度是全球第二大棉花生产国和出口国。此前，印度纺织部长丽塔梅农说，印度将允许从<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="1" Month="11" Year="2010"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="15" Month="12" Year="2010"><SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>出口最多<SPAN lang=EN-US>550</SPAN>万包本国棉花，但出口商注册出口的数量仅为<SPAN lang=EN-US>300</SPAN>万包左右，因降雨迟来令主要种植区棉花收割工作推迟。行业及政府官员称，印度<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010/11</SPAN>年度棉花产量预计将超过<SPAN lang=EN-US>3250</SPAN>万包，超过上一年度的<SPAN lang=EN-US>2950</SPAN>万包。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 2</SPAN>、中国海关<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月进出口数据显示，中国<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月棉花进口较去年同期增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>12%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>126,125</SPAN>吨，较<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月进口增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>31%</SPAN>。中国<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-11</SPAN>月棉花进口<SPAN lang=EN-US>237</SPAN>万吨，较去年同期增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>81%<BR> 3</SPAN>、<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="21" Month="12" Year="2010"><SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>21</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，进口棉中国主港报价继续大涨，各品种全面上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>3—4</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>27384</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上一交易日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>102</SPAN>张，较上一交易日持平，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>178</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>主产区天气：未来三天，新疆北部、东北地区中北部、内蒙古中东部、青海东部、甘肃、宁夏、陕西大部、黄淮西部、江汉等地有小到中雪或雨夹雪，其中，新疆西北部和沿天山地区局地、黑龙江东北部、西北地区东南部、湖北西部和南部等地有大雪或暴雪。江淮、江南大部以及贵州中北部等地将出现雨转雪或雨夹雪，其中安徽南部、江南北部、贵州中北部等地的部分地区有大到暴雪。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：印度将在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010/11</SPAN>年度批准出口<SPAN lang=EN-US>250</SPAN>万包<SPAN lang=EN-US>(170</SPAN>公斤<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>包<SPAN lang=EN-US>)</SPAN>棉花，临近圣诞假期美棉获利回吐全线跌停；国内政策调控对郑棉期价有所压力，郑棉呈现被动跟涨；现货价格延续小幅上涨走势，期现价差缩窄。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约大幅下跌，期价跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线后加速回落，<SPAN lang=EN-US>30000</SPAN>关口压力较强，短线延续区间震荡走势。操作上，短线交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">谷物<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米期货周三连续第六天上涨，触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>28</SPAN>个月高位，因阿根廷天气干燥，威胁到处于关键授<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>粉阶段的作物。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、中国海关<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月进出口数据显示，中国<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月进口玉米<SPAN lang=EN-US>78,555</SPAN>吨，同比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>364.31%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、中<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>国海关<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月进出口数据显示，中国<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月进口小麦<SPAN lang=EN-US>6,838</SPAN>吨，同比减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>92.71%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、由于江苏盐城地区粮库及<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>大型企业收购较多，农户仍惜售，市场原粮紧张，粳稻价格稳中继续趋涨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：由于库存下降，目前广东港口玉米价格继续小幅走高，港口<SPAN lang=EN-US>15%</SPAN>以内水分新粮主流成交价在<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2160</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较前期上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>5-10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，当地饲料企业采购较好，但整体需求依旧不算理想；北方锦州、鲅鱼<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>圈港口<SPAN lang=EN-US>15%</SPAN>以内水分玉米收购价变化不大，基本还在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，平舱价格也稳定在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2060-2070</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，港口<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>贸易商发货热情依旧不是很高，库存压力仍在；郑州强筋小麦出库价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2370</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持平；江西九江早稻收购<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2080</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，水分<SPAN lang=EN-US>≤13.5%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存方面：玉米仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1038</SPAN>张，郑州强麦仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>6688</SPAN>张，早籼稻仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>6213</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：现货保持坚挺支撑期货价格，但短期政策压力犹存，建议震荡思路对待；<SPAN lang=EN-US>WS1109</SPAN>合约上行动能不足，下方中长期均线支撑，短期或延续高位震荡；<SPAN lang=EN-US>ER1105</SPAN>合约下方<SPAN lang=EN-US>2300</SPAN>一线支撑较好，但上方空间受到限制，建议观望或震荡思路对待。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><BR>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">大豆豆粕<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、哈尔滨国家粮食交易中心将于<SPAN lang=EN-US>24</SPAN>日继续拍卖<SPAN lang=EN-US>08</SPAN>年黑龙江省产大豆<SPAN lang=EN-US>19.1</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、油世界称阿根廷<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年初大豆产量料降至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4300-4800</SPAN>万吨，低于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年初的<SPAN lang=EN-US>5440</SPAN>万吨，同时警告称，目前<SPAN lang=EN-US>4700</SPAN>万吨的预估值可能再次修改。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>外盘：美豆期价小幅走高，逼近六周高点，在当前供应偏紧和阿根廷天气不利的情况下，交易商继续增加价格的风险溢价。美豆<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月收盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1339</SPAN>美分，上涨了<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.25</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、黑龙江大豆现货价格平稳，进口大豆港口分销价格能在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4100-4200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、豆粕现货报价继续上涨，沿海地区价格上涨了<SPAN lang=EN-US>10-40</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，华北山东地区价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300-3350</SPAN>元，江苏地区价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3350-3420</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>盘面分析：盘面走低，豆粕豆油大幅减仓，大豆向远期合约移仓。隔夜美盘上涨，但连盘开盘价位接近于昨日收盘价格，随后开盘后期价一路走低。大豆<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约仍就在长达<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>周的震荡区间中运行，豆粕走势虽强于大豆，但期价仍比较徘徊。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>操作建议：今日国内证券和期货市场普跌，豆类期价同样大幅走低，期价反弹之势曲折，资金流出显示市场心态仍旧不稳。但从整个基本面和技术面来看，目前并未形成多单平仓的条件，操作上仍建议前期的多单持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">后继续小幅收高。本周三已经是<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>糖市连续第四个交易日上涨，过去四天里糖价的涨幅达到了<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.9%</SPAN>。当日<SPAN lang=EN-US>1103</SPAN>期约糖价上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>+0.3%</SPAN>），收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>33.13</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅，盘中糖价一度暴跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.9%</SPAN>，本周二<SPAN lang=EN-US>1003</SPAN>期约糖价一度冲击了<SPAN lang=EN-US>1981</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月份以来<SPAN lang=EN-US>33.65</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅的高点；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>期约糖价同时上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>22</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>+0.7%</SPAN>），以<SPAN lang=EN-US>29.77</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅报收。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">、古巴<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年食糖产量继续下滑 出口中国数量不增<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">、<SPAN lang=EN-US> 11</SPAN>月份中国进口食糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>23034</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">国内现货小幅上调，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>6850</SPAN>（新糖）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1760</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1657</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">国内主产区天气情况：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">今天白天到晚上，百色、河池、崇左、防城港等市多云到阴天有分散小雨，我区其它地区多云到阴天。今天早晨桂东、<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">桂南部分地区有雾。 南宁市：今天白天到晚上，阴天，东南风<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-2</SPAN>级，最高气温<SPAN lang=EN-US>22</SPAN>℃，最低气温<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>℃。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">技术上，郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约盘中冲突破<SPAN lang=EN-US>7000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持仓大幅增加，但涨势缓慢，暗示上涨过程空头套保盘压力沉重。现货的上涨乏力拖累期价，<SPAN lang=EN-US>KDJ</SPAN>指标有下拐可能，反弹或将结束。投资者可中长线逢高抛空。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">油脂<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">外盘：因国际植物油需求前景利好，美豆油升至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2008</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月以来的最高点，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月合约收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>55.97</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅；因大豆及植物油供应紧俏，<SPAN lang=EN-US>BMD</SPAN>毛棕榈油继续走高，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月合约收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3593</SPAN>令吉<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">消息：国际方面，贸易官员称，印尼可能将<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月毛棕榈油出 口关税上调至<SPAN lang=EN-US>17.5-20.0%</SPAN>，目前为<SPAN lang=EN-US>15%</SPAN>，因国际价格上涨。国内 方面，海关数据显示，中国<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月进口棕榈油<SPAN lang=EN-US>528624</SPAN>吨，同比增 长<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.03%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-11</SPAN>月累计进口<SPAN lang=EN-US>5039060</SPAN>吨，同比减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>13.82%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">现货：昨日油脂现货价格小幅走高，沿海四级豆油约为<SPAN lang=EN-US> 9550-9800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；港口棕榈油报价集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9300-9550</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；国 内四级菜油出厂价格处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>9650-10400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">仓单：豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>5950</SPAN>张；棕榈油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>张；菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>5300</SPAN>张；均无变化。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">观点总结：期货主力价格高企，而现货豆油、菜籽油受国家调控影响较为滞涨，因此，在<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月份不建议过分高看油脂价 格。就当前的情况来看，在外盘走强的带动下，油脂重心缓步上移，一月周期的<SPAN lang=EN-US>Y1109</SPAN>多单可依托<SPAN lang=EN-US>10024</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨持有，日内震荡 操作为宜。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center; tab-stops: 18.0pt" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1 PTA<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油收涨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>EIA</SPAN>公布数据显示美国上周原油库存大幅减少。<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 2</SPAN>月原油期货上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.66</SPAN>美元，报收<SPAN lang=EN-US>90.48</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、海关数据显示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月，中国进口<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>为<SPAN lang=EN-US>41.07</SPAN>万吨，环比增<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.43%</SPAN>，金额为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.46</SPAN>亿美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、海关数据显示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月，中国进口<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>为<SPAN lang=EN-US>30.08</SPAN>万吨，环比大增<SPAN lang=EN-US>32.63%</SPAN>，金额为<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.51</SPAN>亿美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货价格：华东<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场维持高位，持货方报盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9600-9650</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，买方询盘气氛明显，主流商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9550</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近展开，实盘稀少。亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场持续上扬，台产保税货报盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1200</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨偏上，实际商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1190-1195</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近展开，韩货商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1175-1180</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，市场交易气氛良好。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>20757</SPAN>张，较上一交易日持平，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1045</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：国际原油站上<SPAN lang=EN-US>90</SPAN>美元关口，外盘主流供应商<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>挂牌价明显上调，成本抬高支撑<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>价格，但短期需求回落也压制上行空间，郑棉大幅回落也拖累<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>走势；<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场报价小幅上调，现货心态平稳，高价区间一般买家略显观望。江浙市场涤丝整体稳定，产销回升明显，市场有一定分歧，聚酯切片市场重心小幅上行。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA1105</SPAN>合约期价小幅收跌，期价高开后震荡回落，短线未能站稳<SPAN lang=EN-US>10000</SPAN>关口，下方考验<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线支撑，将延续震荡走势。操作上，日内交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><BR>2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>22</SPAN>日<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油期货周三收于每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>90</SPAN>美元上方，供应减少且经济前景改善推动油价升至逾两年来最高水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 2</SPAN>月原油期货收涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.66</SPAN>美元，或<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.73%</SPAN>，至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>90.48</SPAN>美元，为<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="3" Month="10" Year="2008"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2008</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>迄今的最高结算价，当时近月原油合约收在<SPAN lang=EN-US>93.88</SPAN>美元。盘中交易区间为<SPAN lang=EN-US>89.85-90.80</SPAN>美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、据海关总署数据显示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月，中国<SPAN lang=EN-US>5-7</SPAN>号燃料油进口量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>174.15</SPAN>万吨，环比增<SPAN lang=EN-US>15.9%</SPAN>，金额为<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.43</SPAN>亿美元。其中最大进口来源地仍为马来西亚，<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月从该国进口量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>64.04</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 2</SPAN>、美国能源信息署公布的数据显示，美国<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="18" Month="12" Year="2010"><SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>18</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>当周<SPAN lang=EN-US>EIA</SPAN>原油库存减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>533</SPAN>万桶。自<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月末以来，美国原油库存减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1930</SPAN>万桶，且供应下降速度为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2008</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月以来最快，当时油价处于每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>美元上方的纪录高位。自<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月中旬以来油价已经上涨了<SPAN lang=EN-US>13%</SPAN>，有望回到<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>美元上方。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>22</SPAN>日黄埔到岸价，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>527.50</SPAN>美元，到岸贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>10-11</SPAN>美元，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>380</SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>517.79</SPAN>美元。华南混调油最新交易估价：船用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>交易过驳价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4620-4630</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；库提价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4630-4640</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，国产锅炉用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>交易价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4400-4450</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：国际原油震荡上行，短期继续测试<SPAN lang=EN-US>90</SPAN>美元关口；成品油调价对燃料油市场影响有限；华南地区燃料油现货市场需求表现疲弱，整体交投氛围较清淡，渣油、非标油维持淡稳局面，实际成交均有小幅优惠。当前现货需求较为疲弱仍抑制燃料油的上行空间。沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US>1103</SPAN>合约震荡收跌，期价冲高回落，<SPAN lang=EN-US>5000</SPAN>整数关口继续承压，短线延续高位震荡走势。操作上，震荡思路，低位适当短多。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">股指期货</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">瑞达期货：外围局势影响，期指或持续震荡<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>道琼斯<SPAN lang=EN-US> 11559.49 26.33 0.23% <BR></SPAN>纳斯达克<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2671.48 3.87 0.15% <BR></SPAN>标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500 1258.84 4.24 0.34%<BR></SPAN>富时<SPAN lang=EN-US>100 5983.49 31.69 0.53% <BR></SPAN>德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX 7067.92 -10.07 -0.14%<BR></SPAN>法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAC40 3919.71 -7.78 -0.20%<BR>C0MEX</SPAN>黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1386.8 -1.4 -0.10%<BR>NYMEX</SPAN>原油<SPAN lang=EN-US> 90.48 0.66 0.73%<BR></SPAN>美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 80.573 -0.124 -0.15%<BR></SPAN>小结<SPAN lang=EN-US>: </SPAN>周三美国股市收高，三大股指连续第二个交易日创下至少两年多以来新高。金融板块在行业并购消息的刺激下领涨大盘。最新经济数据表明美国经济仍在复苏。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1. </SPAN>央票二度停发<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>货币政策方向已明；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2. </SPAN>明年信贷或不明确全年目标<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>按月或季度相机调整；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3. </SPAN>超短期融资券推出<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>货币市场添工具；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>4. </SPAN>欧债危机升温<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>中美<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>雪中送炭<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>5</SPAN>．日本下财年发<SPAN lang=EN-US>170</SPAN>万亿国债<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>6. </SPAN>韩国再掀最大规模军演<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>亚太股市再临考验。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>持仓分析：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名多头主力持单<SPAN lang=EN-US>16087</SPAN>手，空头主力持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>19482</SPAN>手，净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>3395</SPAN>手，净空持仓减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>245</SPAN>手。其中：前<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>名主力机构净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>5546</SPAN>手，空头持仓维持在高位，但空头优势较上一交易日有所减弱。从日内盘中持仓动向看，日内持仓相对稳定。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>股指期货主力合约<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1101</SPAN>收盘报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3243</SPAN>点，预计周四<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1101</SPAN>的运行区间在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3200-3310</SPAN>之间，如上方冲破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3310</SPAN>点可以小多，止损下设<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>个点；如下方破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3200</SPAN>可以介入空单，止损上设<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>个点。如在区间内窄幅震荡，可以高空低多的策略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>合约名称<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>HS 300 3310 3290 3170 3120<BR>IF1101 3330 3310 3200 3130<BR>IF1102 3380 3350 3230 3100<BR>IF1103 3440 3400 3250 3200<BR>IF1106 3500 3470 3320 3270<BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">『免责声明：期市瞬息万变，盘中突发消息也将影响走势突变，投资人应盘
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