<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">金属产品</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">锌、铝<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：上周五，伦锌低开高走，收出光头光脚坚实阳线，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2300</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.85%</SPAN>；伦铝高位震荡，日线收阳但成交萎缩，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2336</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.9%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">内外盘比价情况：锌内外比价最高<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.38</SPAN>，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.17</SPAN>，铝内外比价位于<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.06-7.14</SPAN>之间。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1. </SPAN>将向多国寻求能源资源供应<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>爱尔兰问题及美元走强打压基金属<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：上海现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>18100-18200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>250</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>685-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>585</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>18050-18150</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>250</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>735-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>635</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>A00 </SPAN>铝报在<SPAN lang=EN-US>16160-16180</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>110-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>90</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存方面：本周上期所锌现货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>303476</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>4051</SPAN>吨，期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>224254</SPAN>吨，较上周增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>4497</SPAN>吨。铝现货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>444699</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>7672</SPAN>吨，期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>312156</SPAN>吨，较上周减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>2708</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存最新库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>699450</SPAN>吨，较上周增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>68725</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铝库存最新库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4287600</SPAN>吨，较上周增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>13575</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：基本面上，供求过剩的局面尚未改变。资金面上，沪铝主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单维持在<SPAN lang=EN-US>8000</SPAN>手以下；沪锌前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单小幅增加至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.3</SPAN>万手以上。技术显示，市场走势震荡偏弱。操作建议：沪锌日内交易；沪铝暂时观望。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="8" UnitName="mm"><SPAN lang=EN-US>8mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4750</SPAN>，持平，<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="20" UnitName="mm"><SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4860</SPAN>，持平<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>(1) </SPAN>淡水河谷：明年铁矿石价格不再需要谈判<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) </SPAN>继宝钢率先上调明年钢价后，武钢也步其后尘上调明年<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月钢价<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) </SPAN>上海再传房产税征收方案，或先试点高档增量房<SPAN lang=EN-US>(4) </SPAN>印度<SPAN lang=EN-US>63.5%</SPAN>粉矿<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="17" Month="12" Year="2010"><SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>17</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>175-177</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>44526</SPAN>，减<SPAN lang=EN-US>1780</SPAN>。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">小结：周五<SPAN lang=EN-US>RB1105</SPAN>合约震荡走高，继宝钢率先上调明年钢价后，武钢也步其后尘上调明年<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月钢价。近段时间天气转冷，钢材需求略有萎缩，但受原材料价格高企和年底订货高峰的推动，钢价稳步上升。操作上，震荡偏强思维，关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>4800</SPAN>附近压力。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-tab-count: 1"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：隔夜黄金小幅上涨，回到<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线之上，其中<SPAN lang=EN-US>COMEX12</SPAN>黄金上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.6%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1378.6</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>盎司，上周走势表明金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>1380</SPAN>的支撑并不强，后期关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>1350</SPAN>的支撑。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>IFO</SPAN>商业景气指数自<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="109.3" UnitName="升"><SPAN lang=EN-US>109.3</SPAN>升</st1:chmetcnv>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>109.9</SPAN>，高于预期的<SPAN lang=EN-US>109</SPAN>，为德国统一以来的最高水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月领先指标为增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.1%</SPAN>，其增幅为<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月来最大，指数为记录高位。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="17" Month="12" Year="2010">12<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月17</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate>SPDR</SPAN>基金黄金持有量增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>15.18</SPAN>吨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1298.94</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：上海黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US>9999</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>296.89</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.38</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，跌幅为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.13% <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：周五金价小幅上涨，回到<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线之上。因市场对爱尔兰债务忧虑有所上升，金价受益上涨。但近期因年关将近，资金有回流需求，预计后期资金的运作方向仍以逢高套现为主，金价难以大幅上涨，另外美元的上涨也对金价造成压力。在这样的背景下，金价保持逢高抛空思路，下方关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>1350</SPAN>或<SPAN lang=EN-US>285</SPAN>的支撑。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铜<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：隔夜伦铜基本守住当日的涨幅，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.49%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9130</SPAN>，一改回调走势，此前两个交易日铜价跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.5%</SPAN>，并一度跌至<SPAN lang=EN-US>8930</SPAN>，目前铜价处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>与<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日均线之间，走势依旧较强。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>IFO</SPAN>商业景气指数自<SPAN lang=EN-US>109.3</SPAN>升至<SPAN lang=EN-US>109.9</SPAN>，高于预期的<SPAN lang=EN-US>109</SPAN>，为德国统一以来的最高水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月领先指标为增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.1%</SPAN>，其增幅为<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月来最大，指数为记录高位。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：上海现铜报<SPAN lang=EN-US>66900-67300</SPAN>元，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>300</SPAN>；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.45-7.5</SPAN>，继续处于低位震荡，表明内盘走势依旧较弱。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="17" Month="12" Year="2010"><SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>17</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铜库存增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>600</SPAN>吨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>361400</SPAN>吨，注销仓单占库存比为<SPAN lang=EN-US>5.13%</SPAN>，上周伦铜库存连续<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日增加，总计增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>12775</SPAN>，而注销仓单也大幅减少，暗示库存增加势头有望延续。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：周五伦铜一改前两日的回调走势，出现小幅上涨，目前铜价处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日与<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日均线之间运行。近期铜价走势一方面受资金逢高了结和库存持续增加打压而出现回调，另一方面则继续受益于中国需求预期和未来供应缺口拉大影响，而继续维持于高位运行，在多空因素交织的情况之下，铜价倾向震荡走势。由于本周欧美将迎来圣诞假期，并且年关将近，资金有回流需求，因此在这样的背景下，铜价也难以大幅走高，建议投资者保持震荡思路，区间为<SPAN lang=EN-US>67000-69500</SPAN>之间。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1 <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">油脂<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：乙醇燃料加工需求前景看好提供豆油期货支撑，但涨幅受油粕解仓套利限制，美豆油继续小幅收高，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月合约 收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>54.13</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅；在下周初公布出口数据之前市场人士担忧 海外需求疲软而纷纷轧平仓位，<SPAN lang=EN-US>BMD</SPAN>毛棕榈油跌至两周低点，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月合约收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>3503</SPAN>令吉<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息：国际方面，南美大豆减产预期下，<SPAN lang=EN-US>USDA</SPAN>依然良好的 豆油出口销售数据，提振<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>豆油价格；<SPAN lang=EN-US>MPOB</SPAN>官员表示，马来 西亚棕榈油产量料将低于<SPAN lang=EN-US>1750</SPAN>万吨的前预期值。国内方面，商务部数据显示，近期国内食用油价格出现小幅走升；国家再度 抛储食用油，菜油成交情况良好而进口毛豆油成交偏低。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货：受期货市场震荡走升影响，上周油脂现货价格与前周相比有所提高，其中菜油报价相对平稳，棕榈油报价有明显 提高。沿海四级豆油约为<SPAN lang=EN-US>9500-9800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；港口棕榈油报价集 中在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9170-9450</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；国内四级菜油出厂价格处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>9600-10200 </SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">仓单：豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>5950</SPAN>张；棕榈油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>张；菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>5300</SPAN>张；均无变化。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：近期外盘油脂开始高位调整，<SPAN lang=EN-US>BMD</SPAN>棕榈油回落幅 度较大，同时，<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月高出市场预期的<SPAN lang=EN-US>CPI</SPAN>无疑使得国家既定经济 目标的实现困难加大。在这种情况下，预计油脂长期依然维持 慢牛行情，短期追高风险加大，建议根据外盘表现，日内短空操作为宜。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">大豆豆粕<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、、美豆出口销售报告显示上周美豆出口降至六个月来的低点。<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>cbotd</SPAN>大豆期货商品基金净多持仓继续增加。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：上周五美豆期价上涨，期价盘中至早盘低点反弹，阿根廷天气提供利多支持。美豆<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月收盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1310.5</SPAN>美分，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">美豆出口销售的下滑值得关注，当然部分原因是短期内国内油厂船期的推迟，但预计后期对进口需求难以延续前期水平。中国的需求在前期是支撑美豆上涨的重要力量，而这个利多有减弱的趋势，这点需要注意。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、进口大豆港口分销价格能在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4100-4200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，港口库存依旧较大。国产大豆价格近期平稳，价格变化不大。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、豆粕现货报价稳中下跌，部分地区跌幅在<SPAN lang=EN-US>30-40</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，关内沿海地区油厂价格能在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3270-3350</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">盘面分析：大豆豆粕期价小幅走高，豆粕延续增仓态势，期价较昨天收盘小幅走低，盘中小幅震荡，反弹的力度仍旧偏弱。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">油脂 观点总结：近期外盘油脂开始高位调整，<SPAN lang=EN-US>BMD</SPAN>棕榈油回落幅度较大，同时，<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月高出市场预期的<SPAN lang=EN-US>CPI</SPAN>无疑使得国家既定经济 目标的实现困难加大。在这种情况下，预计油脂长期依然维持慢牛行情，短期追高风险加大，建议根据外盘表现，日内短空 操作为宜。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">谷物早盘提示：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：由于乙醇需求强劲，加上明年种植面积降低的预测令市场对来年供应形势感到担忧，受此影响，周五<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米期货市场收涨至近<SPAN lang=EN-US>28</SPAN>个月来的高点。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、美国谷物理事会称中国玉米进口或创历史纪录；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、阿根廷交易所将小麦产量数据上调到<SPAN lang=EN-US>1300</SPAN>万吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、安徽滁州已收稻谷<SPAN lang=EN-US>120</SPAN>万吨，价格稳定。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：目前北方港口玉米市场价格维持稳定，鲅鱼圈、锦州港口，水分<SPAN lang=EN-US>15%</SPAN>以内新粮收购价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2020</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，两港主流平仓在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2060-2070</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨之间，大连港口基本与之持平，北方港口至深圳港口，航船运费<SPAN lang=EN-US>60-65</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨之间，受近期大雪天气影响，集港玉米数量不多；广东深圳港口玉米价格维持弱势稳定，港内库存合计<SPAN lang=EN-US>28.2</SPAN>万吨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>09</SPAN>年优质陈粮玉米价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2165-2170</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，新玉米<SPAN lang=EN-US>15%</SPAN>水分以内主流成交价仍在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2140</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；郑州强筋小麦出库价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2370</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持平；江西九江早稻收购价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2080</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，水分≤<SPAN lang=EN-US>13.5%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存方面：玉米仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1038</SPAN>张，郑州强麦仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>5668</SPAN>张，早籼稻仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>6274</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：现货保持坚挺支撑期货价格，但短期政策压力犹存，建议震荡思路对待；<SPAN lang=EN-US>WS1109</SPAN>合约上行动能不足，下方中长期均线支撑，短期或延续高位震荡；<SPAN lang=EN-US>ER1105</SPAN>合约下方<SPAN lang=EN-US>2300</SPAN>一线支撑较好，但上方空间受到限制，建议观望或震荡思路对待。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期棉大幅收高<SPAN lang=EN-US>, </SPAN>受短期供应紧缺预期推动。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月棉花上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>美分，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>150.12</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、美国农业部<SPAN lang=EN-US>(USDA)</SPAN>最新公布的棉花出口销售报告显示，截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="9" Month="12" Year="2010"><SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>当周，美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010-11</SPAN>年度棉花净销售<SPAN lang=EN-US>190,400</SPAN>包；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011-12</SPAN>年度棉花净销售<SPAN lang=EN-US>57,600</SPAN>包。当周美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010-11</SPAN>年度棉花出口装船<SPAN lang=EN-US>305,200</SPAN>包。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、根据国家统计局数据，<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-11</SPAN>月纱产量累计完成<SPAN lang=EN-US>2486</SPAN>万吨，同比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>14.8%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月纱产量<SPAN lang=EN-US>247</SPAN>万吨，同比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>9.8%</SPAN>，环比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.9%</SPAN>。当月棉纱产量同比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.2%</SPAN>，增速比<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月、<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月分别回落<SPAN lang=EN-US>5.6</SPAN>和<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>个百分点。同期化纤及棉混纺纱较快增长，<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月当月增幅达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>22%</SPAN>以上，所占比重提高<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.2</SPAN>个百分点。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>27199</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上一交易日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>57</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>102</SPAN>张，较上一交易日持平，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>129</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">主产区天气：冷空气对我国的影响趋于结束，全国大部地区气温将逐渐回升。未来三天，我国降水范围较小，新疆西部和北部的部分地区、内蒙古东北部、东北地区中北部、西藏东部、川西高原等地有小到中雪或阵雪。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：受投机买盘推动，美棉收于一个月高点，逼近前期高点<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>美分关口；国内政策调控仍压制郑棉期价上行空间，棉市呈现外强内弱局面；现货价格延续小幅上涨走势。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约小幅收涨，期价位于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线整理，上方<SPAN lang=EN-US>28000</SPAN>继续承压，延续震荡走势。操作上，短线交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center; tab-stops: 18.0pt" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">连塑<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、塑料回收体系亟待完善<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2</SPAN>、初级形状塑料进口量平价扬<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格继续保持平稳。扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>11000</SPAN>。市场成交不活跃。东北亚乙烯报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1178</SPAN>——<SPAN lang=EN-US>1180</SPAN>美元，东南亚乙烯报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1085</SPAN>——<SPAN lang=EN-US>1087</SPAN>美元，均无涨跌。市场成交清淡。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>26828</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：受原油高位回调影响，今日连塑料也走出弱势整理格局。基本面上，亚洲乙烯价格坚挺，国内乙烯减产令市场供应略微趋紧，这些因素对连塑形成一定的支撑。但原油长时间高位震荡令市场做多信心有所流失，且加息忧虑再次抬头也令商品市场承压。预计连塑料经小幅整理后仍将延续反弹走势。操作上，建议投资者手中多单以<SPAN lang=EN-US>12000</SPAN>元为止损位继续谨慎持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>PVC<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、德国化工行业对明年前景表示悲观、<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、全球化工业投资增量新兴市场占九成<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货价格全线走稳，华东地区乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8500</SPAN>元，电石法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8100</SPAN>元。西北电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>4200</SPAN>元，华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>4600</SPAN>元，均与昨天持平。市场成交一般。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>444</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>依托五日均线窄幅震荡，成交明显萎缩，显示市场做多信心仍不充足。基本面上，现货与电石价格坚挺对<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>形成一定的成本支撑。且经过连续回落，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>也存在一定的反弹要求。但原油高位回落，加息预期重起又对商品市场形成制约，预计<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>经短暂整理后仍有望延续反弹。操作上，投资者手中多单以<SPAN lang=EN-US>8120</SPAN>点为止损位谨慎持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">天胶<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘走势：受日胶库存减少，中国天胶产区将进入全面停割期等因素的影响，市场供应紧张忧虑挥之不去。<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="17" Month="12" Year="2010"><SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>17</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>日胶继续稳步攀升，盘中一度冲击<SPAN lang=EN-US>400</SPAN>日元的整数关口，但未能成功突破，终盘小涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.9</SPAN>日元，报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>398.6</SPAN>日元。涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.48%</SPAN>。天胶基本面良好，预计将延续震荡上行的格局。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、麦格理<SPAN lang=EN-US>--</SPAN>明年全球橡胶料持续供应不足、<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、出口轮胎结构设计须下功夫<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：上海市场橡胶现货价格大幅走高。云南国标一号胶报<SPAN lang=EN-US>34800</SPAN>元，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>600</SPAN>元，泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US>3#</SPAN>烟片胶报<SPAN lang=EN-US>35500</SPAN>元。涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>500</SPAN>元。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">亚洲各橡胶主产区天气预报如下：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>曼谷<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>阴<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>29</SPAN>℃～<SPAN lang=EN-US>21</SPAN>℃<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">越南<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>河内<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>晴<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>19</SPAN>℃～<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>℃<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">胡志明市<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>阴<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="31" UnitName="℃">31<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="21" UnitName="℃">21<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>℃</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">马来西亚 吉隆坡<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>31</SPAN>℃～<SPAN lang=EN-US>23</SPAN>℃<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>级转<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">印尼<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>雅加达<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>雷阵雨<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>31</SPAN>℃～<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>℃<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>风力：<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>级<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存周报：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>43360</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：今日沪胶震荡走高，盘中增仓明显，显示短期仍有上升潜力。基本面上：橡胶供应不足对天胶价格形成一定的支撑。但原油长时间高位震荡令市场做多信心不足也对天胶构成一定的影响，预计天然橡胶后市仍将延续震荡上行的格局。操作上，投资者手中多单可继续谨慎持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4 PTA<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油收涨，美国经济乐观情绪盖过了对欧元区财政问题的担忧。<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 1</SPAN>月原油期货上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.32</SPAN>美元，报收<SPAN lang=EN-US>88.02</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年原料<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX/PTA/MEG</SPAN>关税基本不变，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>关税为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2%</SPAN>（其中根据海峡两岸经济合作架构协议，<SPAN lang=EN-US>MX</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>等台湾进口关税从原来<SPAN lang=EN-US>2%</SPAN>降为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>），<SPAN lang=EN-US>MEG</SPAN>关税为<SPAN lang=EN-US>5.5%</SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>关税为<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.5%</SPAN>（对原产韩、印度等维持“亚太贸易协定”关税为<SPAN lang=EN-US>6%</SPAN>；对于东盟协定中马来西亚、新加坡、泰国维持关税为<SPAN lang=EN-US>5% </SPAN>），而韩国和泰国分别在<SPAN lang=EN-US>6%</SPAN>及<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>的基础上再加反倾销税。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、江浙地区主流工厂涤丝多数稳定，局部地区部分工厂降<SPAN lang=EN-US>100-300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，多数工厂优惠促销为主，部分常见规格因价格逼近成本线，下游及贸易商采购相对提升，且局部地区出现少量外单。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货价格：华东<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场气氛小幅上扬，部分卖方报盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，市场询盘气氛增加，实际商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9400-9450</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近水平，实盘稀少。亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场行情暂稳，台产保税货少量报盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1190</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，实际商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1175-1180</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，韩产货报盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1170</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，实际商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1165</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>20977</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>99</SPAN>张，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>848</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：原油位于<SPAN lang=EN-US>88</SPAN>美元一线整理，国内紧缩预期仍限制商品上行空间；<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场报盘不多，因市场流通货源不多，低价位卖方暂不急于出售，下游追高意向有限。江浙市场涤丝报价多数稳定，多数工厂优惠促销为主，下游织造工厂整体观望，聚酯切片市场维持震荡；需求回落限制<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>上行空间。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA1105</SPAN>合约期价小幅收涨，期价围绕<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线整理，上方受<SPAN lang=EN-US>10000</SPAN>关口压制，短线延续区间震荡走势。操作上，日内交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油期货收高<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>因在两个受密切关注的指标都显示经济复苏动能增加后<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>经济乐观情绪盖过了对欧元区财政问题的担忧。<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 1</SPAN>月原油期货收高<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.32</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>或<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.36%,</SPAN>结算价报每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>88.02</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>交投区间为<SPAN lang=EN-US>87.01-88.52</SPAN>美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、中国财政部日前表示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年中国将维持燃料油、石脑油和航煤进口关税不变。其中燃料油进口关税将继续保持为<SPAN lang=EN-US>3%</SPAN>，石脑油关税继续为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1%</SPAN>，航煤进口关税继续为<SPAN lang=EN-US>6%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、新加坡国际企业发展局（<SPAN lang=EN-US>IE</SPAN>）公布的数据显示，截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="15" Month="12" Year="2010"><SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>当周，新加坡残渣燃料油库存增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>54.7</SPAN>万桶至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2248.6</SPAN>万桶。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、据金银岛调查，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月华南燃料油预计进口量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>25-30</SPAN>万吨，相比金银岛统计的<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月进口量下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>31%</SPAN>，相比<SPAN lang=EN-US>2009</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月海关数据统计的<SPAN lang=EN-US>43.4</SPAN>万吨进口量也有<SPAN lang=EN-US>37%</SPAN>左右的减幅。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>17</SPAN>日黄埔到岸价，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>526.11</SPAN>美元，到岸贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>10-11</SPAN>美元，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>380</SPAN>美金价<SPAN lang=EN-US>516.20</SPAN>美元。华南混调油最新交易估价：船用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>交易过驳价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4610-4620</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；库提价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4620-4630</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上周上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；国产锅炉用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>交易价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4400-4450</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上周末持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：国际原油围绕<SPAN lang=EN-US>88</SPAN>美元一线震荡；华东燃料油市场价格保持平稳，成交仍较清淡；华南地区燃料油现货市场各商家调价谨慎，多以稳抗跌为主。当前现货需求较为疲弱仍抑制燃料油的上行空间。沪油<SPAN lang=EN-US>1103</SPAN>合约小幅收跌，期价围绕<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线缩量整理，上方<SPAN lang=EN-US>5000</SPAN>关口依旧承压，短线延续高位震荡走势。操作上，震荡思路。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">股指期货</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">瑞达期货： 多空胶着，期指或续盘整<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘指数<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-tab-count: 1"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-tab-count: 1"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-tab-count: 1"> </SPAN></SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">道琼斯<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>11491.91<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>-7.34<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>-0.06% <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">纳斯达克<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2642.97<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>5.66<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.21%<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-tab-count: 1"></SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1243.91<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1.04<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.08%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">富时<SPAN lang=EN-US>100<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>5871.75<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>-9.37<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>-0.16%<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>6982.45<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>-41.95<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>-0.60%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAC40<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3867.35<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>-21.01<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.54%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">C0MEX</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1378.6<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>8.2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.6%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">NYMEX</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">原油<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>88.02<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.32<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.36%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>80.362<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.327<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.41%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">小结：由于美元走强和欧盟峰会未能出台解决近期债务危机解决方案等消息令市场承受了压力，周五美股收盘涨跌不一，但大盘连续第三周收阳。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">周小川：“十二五”期间利率市场化将有明显进展；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">中国外贸总额有望创历史新高将突破<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.9</SPAN>万亿美元；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">．尚福林：证监会将保持打击内幕交易高压态势；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">美再关<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>银行 今年破产总数增至<SPAN lang=EN-US>157</SPAN>家；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">5. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">奥巴马签署减税延期妥协法案；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">6. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">欧洲五国领导人要求欧盟冻结财政预算增长。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">持仓分析：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名多头主力持单<SPAN lang=EN-US>15968</SPAN>手，空头主力持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>20019</SPAN>手，净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>3865</SPAN>手，净空持仓增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>4051</SPAN>手。其中：前<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>名主力机构净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>6297</SPAN>手，空头持仓维持在高位，但空头优势较上一交易日有所增强。从日内盘中持仓动向看，日内持仓相对稳定。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">技术方面来看，股指期货主力合约<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1101</SPAN>收盘报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3281</SPAN>点，预计周一<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1101</SPAN>的运行区间在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3315-3250</SPAN>之间，如上方冲破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3315</SPAN>点可以小多，止损下设<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>个点；如下方破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3250</SPAN>可以介入空单，止损上设<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>个点。如在区间内窄幅震荡，可以高空低多的策略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">合约名称<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>强阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>强支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">HS 300<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3275<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3255<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3190<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3175<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">IF1101<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3340<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3315<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3250<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3210<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">IF1103<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3410<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3380<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3315<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3280<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">IF1106<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3500<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3450<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3390<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3345<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">『免责声明：期市瞬息万变，盘中突发消息也将影响走势突变，投资人应盘
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