瑞达期货 发表于 2010-12-14 09:30

<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-hansi-font-family: 黑体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt">瑞达期货:<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="12" Day="14" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>14</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>宏观视点<SPAN lang=EN-US><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">全球主要指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="12" Day="13" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">12</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">13</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">收盘:上证指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2922.95</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">,涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2.88%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">;沪深</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">300</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3261.06</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">,涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3.13%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">;中小板指</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">7105.72</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">,涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2.71%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">;恒生指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">23317.61</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">,涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.67%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">;德</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">DAX 7029.39 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.33%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">;道琼工业</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">11428.56 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.16%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">;纳斯达克</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2624.91 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.48%</FONT></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">人民币对美元中间价</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">6.6604</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">,升</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">26</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">个基点;</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">CRB</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">602.99</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.86%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">;</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">BDI 2076.00 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.91%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">;</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">GlobalCoal</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">煤炭价格周指(</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">NEWC INDEX 115.81 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">4.11%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">,</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">RB INDEX 109.93 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2.60%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">)</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">瑞达国内宏观观点</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">中央经济会议将明年宏观经济政策定调为“积极稳健、审慎灵活”;增长方面再次确认“保持经济平稳较快发展”;通胀方面提出“把稳定物价总水平放在更加突出的位置”;货币政策定位“实施稳健的货币政策,总体稳健、调节有度”;汇率方面“保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定”;</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">中央经济会议提出的重要基调还包括:房地产方面提出“加快推进住房保障体系建设”;将文化产业确认为国民经济支柱性产业;农业方面“把水利作为农村基础设施建设重点”;结构调整方面“严格投资产能过剩产业”;区域发展方面提出“坚持把深入实施西部大开发战略放在区域发展总体战略优先位置”;外贸方面提出“加快加工贸易转型升级”。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><BR></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">据传,中国在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份被实施差别存款准备金率的银行已接获通知,本周到期后将继续被实施差别存款准备金率,期限暂定为三个月。这些最新被实施差别准备金率延期的银行,存款准备金率达到创纪录的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">19%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR><FONT face="Times New Roman">4. <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">发改委副主任彭森在周一举行的国务院新闻发布会上称,中国第一大产煤大省山西省获批为“国家资源型经济转型综合配套改革试验区”,重点解决传统产业转型等问题。山西将加快工业新型化步伐,将坚持以煤为基,多元发展的思路,实现高碳产业低碳发展;培育壮大新型装备制造、现代煤化工、新能源、新材料、节能环保等新型产业和高新技术产业。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><BR><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></B></SPAN><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">瑞达国际宏观观点</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">.美联储周一表示将在未来一个月内买进</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1050</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">亿美元未来</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">6-7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">年到期国债,为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">QE2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">措施宣布以来的首次购买行动。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">经合组织</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">(OECD)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">昨日在欧元区经济调查报告中指出,欧元区经济稳步复苏,金融环境在改善,但银行体系元气未恢复,此外,财政改革对确保政府收支平衡极为重要。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">OECD</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">建议创立一个永久性的危机管理框架。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">.英国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">12</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">Rightmove</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">平均房屋要价指数月率下降</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3.0%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">,为连续第二月大幅下降。严格的抵押贷款条件令房地产市场承压,</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2011</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">年跌势恐将持续。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">4. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">加拿大统计局昨日表示,加拿大第三季度工业产能利用率触及两年来最高水平,升至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">78,1%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">,其中制造业表现最为突出。尽管离健康水平仍有差距,但该数据显示加拿大经济复苏在加速。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">今日关注重点:美联储公布利率决议;美国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">11</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月生产者物价指数;欧元区</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月工业产出;德国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">12</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">ZEW</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">经济景气指数;英国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">11</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月零售物价指数;英国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">11</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月消费者物价指数;英国至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">11</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月三个月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">RICS</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">房价指数;日本</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月工业产出修正值</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 10.95pt; TEXT-INDENT: -10.95pt; mso-char-indent-count: -1.04"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">观点总结</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">中央经济会议针对明年物价的基调为“稳定物价总水平”,我们认为管理层仍然认为物价可控,通胀目标或将小幅提高至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">,虽然近来农产品价格有所下降,但物价调控压力仍然不容忽视,如果</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold"><FONT face="Times New Roman">12</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CPI</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">仍然破</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">,预计加息将是必然选择,而中央经济会议政策定调完成后加息的可能性也会大幅提高。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">欧元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美元(利好);美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日元(利好);美指(利空);德国国债收益率(利空);美国国债收益率(利空);日本国债收益率(利好);</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">LIBOR</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">隔夜(利空);</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">EURIBOR</FONT></SPAN><SPA
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