<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">盘面走势<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>今日郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约开盘报<SPAN lang=EN-US>26585</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，收盘于<SPAN lang=EN-US>26815</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较前一交易日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>605</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨幅为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.31%</SPAN>；成交量增至<SPAN lang=EN-US>191.25</SPAN>万手，持仓增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>10706</SPAN>手至<SPAN lang=EN-US>21.89</SPAN>万手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">、美国农业部<SPAN lang=EN-US>(USDA)</SPAN>最新公布的棉花出口销售报告显示，截至<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="25" Month="11" Year="2010"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>当周，美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010-11</SPAN>年度棉花净销售<SPAN lang=EN-US>266,000</SPAN>包；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011-12</SPAN>年度棉花净销售<SPAN lang=EN-US>269,000</SPAN>包。当周美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010-11</SPAN>年度棉花出口装船<SPAN lang=EN-US>183,700</SPAN>包。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">、一家行业组织的发言人称，估计澳大利亚<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010/11</SPAN>年度棉花播种面积料较上年度增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>150%</SPAN>，因受棉花价格上涨和播种条件改善等影响。澳洲棉花的发言人<SPAN lang=EN-US>David Bone</SPAN>称，澳洲农户在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010/11</SPAN>年度棉花播种面积料自去年的<SPAN lang=EN-US>200,000</SPAN>公顷增加至逾<SPAN lang=EN-US>500,000</SPAN>公顷。澳大利亚为全球第三大棉花出口国。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">、<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="2" Month="12" Year="2010"><SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，进口棉中国主港报价全面上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>美分。尽管最近几天国际棉价开始企稳并恢复上涨，但面对前期的大起大落和渐渐萎缩的下游需求，纺织企业对外棉的采购兴趣较为平淡，买卖双方陷入僵持，预计本周的美棉出口周报不会给市场带来惊喜。目前，现货市场的重点是印度政府将于<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="3" Month="12" Year="2010"><SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>决定是否放宽棉花出口。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>26351</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上一交易日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>102</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>55</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>89</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">主产区天气：受强冷空气影响，未来三天，长江中下游以北地区气温将下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>～<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>℃，新疆北部、甘肃西部、内蒙古西部和东南部、华北北部和东部、黄淮东北部等地的部分地区降温幅度可达<SPAN lang=EN-US>14</SPAN>～<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>℃；未来三天，新疆大部、内蒙古中东部、黑龙江大部、吉林东部等地有小到中雪或雨夹雪，<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>日新疆塔城、阿勒泰、伊犁河谷、北疆沿天山一带等地有大雪，部分地区有暴雪。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">观点总结：印度限制棉纱出口的消息提振市场，投机买盘推动美棉强势上扬，连续两个交易日收于涨停；短期国内政策调控仍对棉花上行空间构成压制；现货价格小幅回升，纺企开始小批量采购，成交量有所增加。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>继续收涨，期价突破<SPAN lang=EN-US>26000</SPAN>一线，有望上抽<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>周均线压力，延续震荡走势。操作上，短多参与，<SPAN lang=EN-US>27500</SPAN>上方谨慎追高。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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