<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">盘面走势<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>今日郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约开盘报<SPAN lang=EN-US>25405</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，收盘于<SPAN lang=EN-US>25380</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较前一交易日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>420</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨幅为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.68%</SPAN>；成交量回落至<SPAN lang=EN-US>187.72</SPAN>万手，持仓减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>29692</SPAN>手至<SPAN lang=EN-US>21.69</SPAN>万手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">、印度农业部长<SPAN lang=EN-US>Sharad Pawar</SPAN>周二称，印度有潜力在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010/11</SPAN>年度出口逾<SPAN lang=EN-US>550</SPAN>万包棉花。印度是全球第二大棉花生产及出口国，自<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:chsdate IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="1" Month="11" Year="2010" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>以来已经允许出口<SPAN lang=EN-US>550</SPAN>万包棉花，但要求出口商在<st1:chsdate IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="15" Month="12" Year="2010" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>前发运。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">、<st1:chsdate IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="30" Month="11" Year="2010" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，进口棉中国主港报价普遍上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.5-4</SPAN>美分，涨幅普遍小于<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期货。据悉，印度政府维持本年度棉花产量不变，仍为<SPAN lang=EN-US>570</SPAN>万吨，但印度国内相关机构近来纷纷大幅上调本年度棉花产量，这对后期印度棉出口的政策取向十分关键，并直接关系到对印度棉一向很“感冒”的许多国内纺织厂。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>26164</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上一交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>84</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>55</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>77</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">主产区天气：未来三天，受冷空气影响，西北地区中东部偏北地区、内蒙古大部、华北、东北、黄淮、江淮等地将先后降温<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>～<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>℃，部分地区降温幅度可达<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>～<SPAN lang=EN-US>14</SPAN>℃，<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>日起，另一股较强冷空气将进入新疆，并自西向东影响我国大部地区。未来三天，新疆北部、西藏东部、内蒙古中东部、东北大部等地有小到中雪（雨）或雨夹雪，其中，新疆北部、内蒙古东部、黑龙江中东部、吉林中东部等地的部分地区有大雪，局地暴雪。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">观点总结：国家出台一系列稳定物价的调控措施，市场炒作情绪得到抑制，政策调控对棉花市场构成调整压力；现货价格小幅收跌，<SPAN lang=EN-US>26000</SPAN>关口有望逐步企稳，期现持续倒挂对期价构成一定支撑。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约收涨，期价触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日后有所回落，短线若能企稳<SPAN lang=EN-US>25000</SPAN>一线，将继续上试<SPAN lang=EN-US>26000</SPAN>压力，延续震荡走势。操作上，低位适当短多，关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>26000</SPAN>压力。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
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