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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">股指期货<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">瑞达期货：<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>期指二次探底，反弹在即<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘指数 收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>道琼斯<SPAN lang=EN-US> 11006.00 -46.47 -0.42% <BR></SPAN>纳斯达克<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2498.23 -26.99 -1.07%<BR></SPAN>标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500 1180.55 -7.21 -0.61%<BR></SPAN>富时<SPAN lang=EN-US>100 5528.27 -22.68 -0.41% <BR></SPAN>德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX 6688.49 -9.48 -0.14%<BR></SPAN>法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAC40 3610.44 -26.52 -0.73%<BR>C0MEX</SPAN>黄金（<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月）<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1385.0 19.0 1.39%<BR>NYMEX</SPAN>原油（<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月）<SPAN lang=EN-US> 84.11 -1.82 -1.89% <BR></SPAN>美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 80.82 -0.06 -0.07%<BR> </SPAN>小结：周二美国股市收低，至此大盘出现<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月份以来的首次月线下跌。尽管美国本土利好经济数据大多好于预期，但投资者对欧洲财政危机的担心情绪仍然导致今日美股下滑。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1. </SPAN>证监会以大幅提高所有品种的交易保证金、涨跌停板幅度等六措施抑制期市过度投机；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2. </SPAN>利差大幅倒挂央票发行遇阻，加息窗口面临开启；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3. 7</SPAN>万亿资金涌向开发商，土地市场成吸金池；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>4. </SPAN>央行官员<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>催促<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>证监会主管的国际板尽快推出，证监会正加紧推动国际板建设；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>5. </SPAN>央行副行长：货币政策也要顾及<SPAN lang=EN-US>GDP</SPAN>增速，密切关注经济指标，相机采取措施<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>6. </SPAN>三部委首次联合主导土地违法问责；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>7. A</SPAN>股市场<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月份超过<SPAN lang=EN-US>1700</SPAN>亿元离场，创年内新高，紧缩政策重击；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>8. </SPAN>个人用限售股换购<SPAN lang=EN-US>ETF</SPAN>须交个税；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>9. </SPAN>爱尔兰获援<SPAN lang=EN-US>850</SPAN>亿欧元难消市场忧虑；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>10. </SPAN>欧债危机击鼓传花，西班牙隐患最大；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>11. </SPAN>美<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月的消费者信心指数为<SPAN lang=EN-US>54.1</SPAN>，创<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>个月新高；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>12. 11</SPAN>月芝加哥<SPAN lang=EN-US>PMI</SPAN>为<SPAN lang=EN-US>62.5</SPAN>，超预期，创<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>个月新高；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>持仓分析：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名多头主力持单<SPAN lang=EN-US>14837</SPAN>手，空头主力持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>16638</SPAN>手，净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>1801</SPAN>手，其中：前<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>名主力机构净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>3541</SPAN>手，空头持仓维持在高位具有一定优势。从日内盘中持仓动向看，股指下跌时持仓量逐步增加，午后股指反弹至尾盘时，部分投资者平仓撤退，持仓量渐渐减少。从持仓动向来看，多头、空头主力均采取小幅减仓的策略。空头主力减仓较为明显，包括<st1:PersonName w:st="on" ProductID="国泰">国泰</st1:PersonName>君安、海通期货在内前<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>名主力减仓约<SPAN lang=EN-US>883</SPAN>手；而多头除华泰长城减仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>375</SPAN>手之外，其他多头主力持仓若显平静。多空持仓动向表明方面，一是，当月合约大幅贴水，前期主力套利资金借此平仓获利，<SPAN lang=EN-US>ETF</SPAN>（上证<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>、深<SPAN lang=EN-US>50ETF</SPAN>）今日放量增加表明这一点；二是，后市具有较大不稳定性加大市场风险，部分投资者已平仓转向观望为主；三是，昨日盘中一度下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>125</SPAN>点，下穿<SPAN lang=EN-US>3100</SPAN>支撑点，而午后又得以拉回<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>多点，盘中走势可谓水深火热，未来走势较难把握，此时，适当减仓或是较好策略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>IF1012</SPAN>合约收盘报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3153</SPAN>点，预计<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1012</SPAN>期货合约的区间在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3225-3080</SPAN>之间运行，如上方冲破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3225</SPAN>点可以介入单多，止损下设<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>个点；如下方破点<SPAN lang=EN-US>3080</SPAN>可以小空，止损上设<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>个点。如在区间内窄幅震荡，可以高空低多的策略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>合约名称<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>HS300 3255 3200 3070 3000<BR>IF1012 3295 3225 3080 3000<BR>IF1101 3325 3250 3100 3025<BR>IF1103 3360 3290 3140 3065<BR>IF1106 3495 3380 3175 3080<BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"> <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期棉收涨，受月末空头回补带动。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月棉花上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.58</SPAN>美分，收报每磅<SPAN lang=EN-US>117.34</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、印度国营棉花公司（<SPAN lang=EN-US>Cotton Corp</SPAN>）公布的数据显示，<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="10" Day="1" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="11" Day="27" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>27</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>期间，印度棉花到货量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>580</SPAN>万包，较去年同期下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.7%</SPAN>。西部<SPAN lang=EN-US>Gujarat</SPAN>邦是印度最大的棉花产区，数据显示，<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="10" Day="1" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="11" Day="27" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>27</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>期间棉花到货量约为<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>万包，（每包重<SPAN lang=EN-US>170</SPAN>公斤）较去年同期下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>18%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 2</SPAN>、美国农业部<SPAN lang=EN-US>(USDA)</SPAN>在每周作物生长报告中公布，截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="11" Day="28" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>28</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>当周，棉花收割率为<SPAN lang=EN-US>91%</SPAN>，之前一周为<SPAN lang=EN-US>86%</SPAN>，去年同期为<SPAN lang=EN-US>80%</SPAN>，五年均值为<SPAN lang=EN-US>81%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 3</SPAN>、<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="11" Day="29" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>29</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，进口棉中国主港报价继续下跌，除长绒棉价格不变之外，所有陆地棉均下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>4-5</SPAN>美分。美棉出口周报显示，前一周中国对美棉的签约量大幅下降。近期棉花价格大幅波动使纺织厂的采购明显谨慎，对外棉的需求也有所减弱，成交集中在年底到期以便尽快用掉今年的配额。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>26248</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上一交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>41</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>51</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>79</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>主产区天气：一股新冷空气将进入新疆北部、而后自西向东影响西北地区中东部、内蒙古大部、华北、东北、黄淮等地，上述大部地区将有<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="8" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>8℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>降温，部分地区降温可达<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="14" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>14℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>。未来三天，新疆北部、内蒙古中东部、东北大部等地有小到中雪（雨）或雨夹雪，其中，新疆北部、内蒙古东北部、黑龙江中东部、吉林中北部和东部等地的部分地区有大雪，局地暴雪；西南地区大部、江南大部等地有小到中雨或阵雨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：国家出台一系列稳定物价的调控措施，市场炒作情绪得到抑制，政策调控对棉花市场构成调整压力；现货价格小幅收跌，<SPAN lang=EN-US>26000</SPAN>关口有所支撑，期现持续倒挂对期价构成一定支撑。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约震荡收涨，期价继续受<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日线支撑出现回升，短线反弹上试<SPAN lang=EN-US>26000</SPAN>压力，延续震荡走势。操作上，低位适当短多，关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>26000</SPAN>压力。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>受印度方面称下个月将放开食糖出口的影响，本周二<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>糖市终结了<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>连阳，当日收盘时盘面价格全线下挫，近期合约的跌幅接近<SPAN lang=EN-US>3%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>当日<SPAN lang=EN-US>1103</SPAN>期约糖价暴跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>80</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>-2.8%</SPAN>），收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>27.55</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅，前<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>个交易日<SPAN lang=EN-US>1003</SPAN>期约糖价曾上涨了<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.4%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>期约糖价同时暴跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>79</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>-3.1%</SPAN>），以<SPAN lang=EN-US>24.99</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅报收。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="11" Day="29" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>29</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>广西累计开榨糖厂<SPAN lang=EN-US>42</SPAN>家，日榨产能<SPAN lang=EN-US>39</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2</SPAN>、截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="11" Day="15" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>巴西中南部累计产糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>3196</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内现货小幅上调，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7000</SPAN>（新糖）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>523</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1878</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内主产区天气：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>今天白天到晚上，桂林、柳州、河池、百色、崇左以及南宁市北部阴天有小雨，我区其它地区多云到阴天。南宁市：今天白<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>天到晚上，阴天间多云，偏北风<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-2</SPAN>级，最<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>高气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="20" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>20℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>，最低气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="15" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>15℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>技术上，郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约受现货价格上涨而反弹，<SPAN lang=EN-US>KDJ</SPAN>指标继续向上发散，反弹或将持续，上方关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>6500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨压力，短线操作<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>为宜。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">油脂<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：油粕套利、国际植物油价格上涨及中国需求强劲提<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>供支撑，美豆油领涨盘面，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月合约收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>51</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅；因受<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>印度与中国强劲需求支撑，<SPAN lang=EN-US>BMD</SPAN>棕榈油涨至逾<SPAN lang=EN-US>28</SPAN>个月来高位，主<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>力<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月合约收高<SPAN lang=EN-US>31</SPAN>令吉<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>3412</SPAN>令吉<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息：国际方面，马来西亚船运调查机构<SPAN lang=EN-US>ITS</SPAN>数据显示，马<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>来西亚<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月棕榈油出口预估较上月增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>11.7%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1512250</SPAN>吨。国<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>内方面，农业部<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月油料市场监测信息显示，除油菜籽外，其<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>他油料和食用植物油价格普遍大涨<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>，山东四级豆油出厂价<SPAN lang=EN-US>8988 </SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，环比涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>13.9%</SPAN>；天津港<SPAN lang=EN-US>24</SPAN>度棕榈油到港价<SPAN lang=EN-US>8425</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，环<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>比涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>14.2%</SPAN>；湖北四级菜油出厂价<SPAN lang=EN-US>9322</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，环比涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.6%</SPAN>；山<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>东一级花生油出厂价<SPAN lang=EN-US>14963</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，环比涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>12.3%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货：昨日油脂现货价格小幅走升，沿海四级豆油约为<SPAN lang=EN-US> 9250-9450</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；港口棕榈油报价集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US>8600-8900</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；国<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>内四级菜油出厂价格处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>9600-10400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单：豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>6119</SPAN>张；棕榈油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>张；菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>5300</SPAN>张；均无<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>变化。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：近期，有传言表示<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFTC</SPAN>将进行投机仓位监管，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>调控压力与基本面利好在未来一段时期内将持续作用、彼此影<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>响。连日来油脂的反弹，给予了市场多头一些信心，就目前的<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>情况而言，棕榈油表现较强，成为适合短多的品种。建议保持<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>震荡偏强思路，谨慎操作。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><BR>4<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">谷物<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：受出口需求放缓及美元上涨打压，周二<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米期货市场收低。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="11" Day="30" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>国家临时存储玉米交易率下降为<SPAN lang=EN-US>17.76%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、江苏旱情持续，影响麦田苗期生<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>长；<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、政策强力调控，南方籼稻市场平稳趋弱。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：目前东北港口玉米价格保持坚挺走势，大连港内玉米平舱价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2080-2090</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，水分<SPAN lang=EN-US>14%</SPAN>，黑<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>龙江新玉米到港价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2040-2050</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨上下，锦州港玉米平舱价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2090</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨上下，均较前一日基本持平；广<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>东港内优质玉米报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2180-2200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较前一日基本持平，近期港口玉米到货相对较多，眼下港内玉米<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>库存加未卸的约在<SPAN lang=EN-US>35</SPAN>万吨左右；郑州强筋小麦出库价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2350</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持平；江西九江早稻收购价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2080</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>水分<SPAN lang=EN-US>≤13.5%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存方面：玉米仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>990</SPAN>张，郑州强麦仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>5516</SPAN>张，早籼稻仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>6061</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：受加大调控力度预期打压，<SPAN lang=EN-US>c1109</SPAN>合约短期或震荡运行于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2250-2300</SPAN>区间；政策施压，<SPAN lang=EN-US>WS1105</SPAN>合约重心下移，短期或延续震荡偏弱格局；调控压力较大，短期<SPAN lang=EN-US>ER1105</SPAN>合约或延续震荡偏弱行情。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">大豆豆粕</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">消息面：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">、</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">Celeres</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">称，截至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">11</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">26</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日，巴西</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2010/11</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">年度（</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">9<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月）大豆播种率攀升至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">85%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，超过去年同期的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">82%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">、国务</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">院常务会议决定对《价格违法行为行政处罚规定》作出修改。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">修改后的规定草案将相互串通、恶意囤积、捏造散布涨价信息</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">以哄抬价格、牟取暴利的行为作为惩处重点，加大了处罚力度</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">外盘：受强劲出口需求及南美天气担忧支撑，周二</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CBOT</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">大豆期</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">货市场收高。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月大豆收盘</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1243</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美分，上涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美分。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">国内现货：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">、黑龙江大豆市场整体购销清淡，一方面是受上周</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">末开始的降雪天气影响，道路不畅使得收购困难，而农产品调</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">控政策开始使得油厂和贸易商观望，部分油厂收购价格相对下</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">调，目前黑龙江地区价格能在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3840</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨左右。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">、豆粕现货报</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">价继续走弱，沿海部分地区的价格已经在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3300</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨左右，但大</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">多数油厂价格维持在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3350-3380</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，东北地区价格在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3200</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/ </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨附近。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">盘面分析：连豆粕盘面震荡，早盘跟随股指的跌势，期价开盘</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">后一路走低，但午后期价有所回暖，抹去大部分跌幅，最终期</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">价较昨天收盘价格小幅下跌。连豆跌幅较大，主力</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1109</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">合约试</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">探近期的震荡区间下沿，但期价最终被拉起，但行情弱势较为</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">明显。从资金面上看，豆类和油脂的资金继续流出，结合目前</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">的低位整理行情，表明多空双方对目前的价位区间有一定的均</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">衡，但后市有望出现新的方向性的动力。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">金属产品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">锌、铝交易提示<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜，伦锌尾盘跳水，再遭重挫，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2071</SPAN>美元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.22%</SPAN>；伦铝弱势震荡，日线收十字阳星，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2275</SPAN>美元，收平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>内外盘比价情况：锌内外比价最高<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.48</SPAN>，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.17</SPAN>，铝内外比价位于<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.14-7.24</SPAN>之间。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月芝加哥采购经理人指数升至<SPAN lang=EN-US>62.5 2.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月红皮书商业零售销售额月比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.6%<BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>16750-16850</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>245-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>145</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>16700-16800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>295-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>195</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>A00 </SPAN>铝报在<SPAN lang=EN-US>15880-15920</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，平水<SPAN lang=EN-US>-</SPAN>升水<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>631825</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>325</SPAN>吨，上海交易所锌期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>220308</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1148</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铝库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4288125</SPAN>吨，较上交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>6800</SPAN>吨，上海交易所铝期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>321864</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>2755</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：基本面上，虽陆续有减产消息传来，然供求过剩的局面尚未改变，现货市场成交仍显清淡。资金面上，沪铝主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单增加至<SPAN lang=EN-US>5000</SPAN>手以上；沪锌前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名空头持仓有所增加，使前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单回到<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.2</SPAN>万手以上。技术显示，市场仍处于横盘震荡态势，缺乏方向性信号。操作建议：沪锌空单持有，止损位<SPAN lang=EN-US>17900</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；沪铝空单持有，止损位<SPAN lang=EN-US>16400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；未入场者暂时选择观望或日内交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="mm" SourceValue="8" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>8mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4650</SPAN>，持平，<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="mm" SourceValue="20" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4800</SPAN>，持平<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>(1) </SPAN>中国需求强劲 铁矿石价格明年一季度或再涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>％<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) </SPAN>利差大幅倒挂央票发行遇阻 加息窗口面临开启<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) 11</SPAN>月新增贷款料超<SPAN lang=EN-US>5000</SPAN>亿 明年银行限贷几成定局<SPAN lang=EN-US>(4) </SPAN>印度粉矿<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="12" Day="1" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>170-172</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>30002</SPAN>，增<SPAN lang=EN-US>1184</SPAN>。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">小结：周二钢材现货价格小幅下跌，期钢减仓回调。随着央票一、二级市场利差倒挂幅度的不断扩大，加息窗口面临开启。短期<SPAN lang=EN-US>RB1105</SPAN>合约将处<SPAN lang=EN-US>4700-4600</SPAN>区间整理，日内交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铜<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：昨日伦铜探底回升，并于晚点<SPAN lang=EN-US>23</SPAN>：<SPAN lang=EN-US>00</SPAN>受到强劲的美国经济数据的刺激而大幅走高，仅一小时就上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>105</SPAN>点，目前铜价于<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>日和<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>均线之间运行，还未真正突破，此次上涨仅保持反弹思路。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月芝加哥采购经理人指数为<SPAN lang=EN-US>62.5</SPAN>，为今年<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月以来最高，预估为<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月消费者信心指数为<SPAN lang=EN-US>54.1</SPAN>，为<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>月来最高，<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月修正后为<SPAN lang=EN-US>49.9</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：上海现铜报<SPAN lang=EN-US>61800-62300</SPAN>元，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>450</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>，小幅缩窄；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.52-7.54</SPAN>，比值依旧在低位运行，表明外盘走势依旧强于内盘。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>日<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铜库存减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>800</SPAN>吨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>355750</SPAN>吨，注销仓单占库存比为<SPAN lang=EN-US>9.07%</SPAN>，较昨日小幅增加，据历史数据显示，注销仓单占比在<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>之下的话，伦铜库存增加的可能性较大，目前的水平表明库存还将有减少的空间。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：昨日伦铜受益于强劲的美国经济数据而自低位大幅反弹。<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>PMI</SPAN>和消费者信心指数均好于预期，这两项指标的好转暗示美国对铜的需求将会有所增加，近来伦铜库存的持续减少也验证了这点。不过由于商品大多是以美元来计价的，如果美元持续上涨的话，对商品也会造成打压，而且期铜目前还处于均线交织处运行，昨日上涨仅被视为反弹，如果后期突破均线的压制，再次回到<SPAN lang=EN-US>8500</SPAN>之上，那么另一轮的上涨有望开启，在此之前继续保持震荡思路，今日内盘料开于<SPAN lang=EN-US>63000</SPAN>左右，建议投资者可轻仓做多，止损<SPAN lang=EN-US>62000.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：隔夜黄金并未受到美元大幅上涨的打压，因中国一项刺激投资者投资黄金的政策放宽，而使得金价获益上涨。其中<SPAN lang=EN-US>COMEX12</SPAN>月黄金涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.39%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1385</SPAN>，金价突破均线的压制，回到均线组上方。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月芝加哥采购经理人指数为<SPAN lang=EN-US>62.5</SPAN>，为今年<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月以来最高，预估为<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月消费者信心指数为<SPAN lang=EN-US>54.1</SPAN>，为<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>月来最高，<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月修正后为<SPAN lang=EN-US>49.9</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>日<SPAN lang=EN-US>SPDR</SPAN>基金黄金持有量持平于<SPAN lang=EN-US>1286.6</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：上海黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US>9999</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>297.4</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.90</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，涨幅为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.98 % <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：昨日黄金在美元大幅上涨的背景下反而触底反弹，因美国经济数据强劲，提振市场信心，而且中国放宽国内资金投资海外黄金，金价获益上涨，目前金价突破均线的压制，回到均线组上方，涨势较好，建议投资者继续多仓跟进。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">燃料油<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国际市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>关键的美国石油库存数据发布前夕，有关欧洲主权债务危机的担忧情绪卷土重来。<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="11" Day="30" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，纽约商交所一月原油期货合约结算价跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.62</SPAN>美元，至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>84.11</SPAN>美元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.9%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>布伦特原油期货一月合约结算价跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.42</SPAN>美元，至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>85.92</SPAN>美元，降幅达<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.6%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>TNK-BP</SPAN>计划提高原油和石油产品出口量<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>美国大陆<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月份天然气产量继续增加<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>期货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>上期所仓单<SPAN lang=EN-US>404600</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>2000</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>上海期货交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>FU1103</SPAN>成交及持仓前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>总排名，持买单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>21092</SPAN>手，增持<SPAN lang=EN-US>1273</SPAN>手；持卖单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>31273</SPAN>手，增持<SPAN lang=EN-US>1187</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>华南混调油最新交易估价：船用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>交易过驳价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4590-4600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；库提价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4600-4610</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价持平；船用<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>供船在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4600-4650</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，锅炉用<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>品质较好的<SPAN lang=EN-US>4500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：月末月初，市场日内波动剧烈，但燃料油期货表现相对坚挺，平稳度过，根据前期建议，<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线下方多单仍可谨慎持有观望，中线持有；短线关注上方<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>日均线给予压力，维持<SPAN lang=EN-US>482-4730</SPAN>区间波动。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR><BR>2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>连塑<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-10</SPAN>月份满洲里关区塑料制品出口量大幅增长；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、中石化千万吨级炼油装备国产化率超<SPAN lang=EN-US>95%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格平稳运行。扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>10850</SPAN>，与一上交易日持平。市场成交不活跃。亚洲乙烯继续小幅攀升，东北亚报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1099——1101</SPAN>美元，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>美元，东南亚乙烯报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1053——1055</SPAN>美元，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>美元。市场成交仍维持低位。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>25838</SPAN>张，较昨日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>182</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：今日连塑探低回升，成交量与昨日基本持平，显示短期下方支撑较为有力。基本面上，亚洲乙烯价格大幅反弹，中石油、中石化增产柴油，降低乙烯产量令市场供应略微趋紧，这些因素连塑形成一定的支撑。但货币政策再度收紧，加息预期不断在一定程度上打压了市场做多信心，且目前需求不振，预计短期连塑料仍将维持弱势。操作上，投资者以日内交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><BR>3<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>PVC<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、山东严禁随意拉闸限电；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、眉山年产<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>万吨丙烯项目开工。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货价走势平稳，华东地区乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8900</SPAN>元，华东电石法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PV</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8500</SPAN>元。均与上一交易日持平，市场成交略有好转。西北电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>4300</SPAN>元，华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>4700</SPAN>元，与上一交易日持平。市场成交一般。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1068</SPAN>张，与昨日持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>震荡走低，下方<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线被轻松击穿，显示其短期走势仍然较弱。基本面上，电石价格坚挺对<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>形成一定的成本支撑。但货币政策进一步收紧，加息预期不断在一定程度上打压了市场的做多信心，现货价格小幅回落、消费淡季需求减弱也对<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>的反弹形成压力。预计<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>仍有调整要求。操作上，投资者手中空单继续谨慎持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">天然橡胶<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>关键的美国石油库存数据发布前夕，有关欧洲主权债务危机的担忧情绪卷土重来。<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="11" Day="30" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，纽约商业交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>(NYMEX)</SPAN>原油期货收盘下挫，结算价跌近每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>84</SPAN>美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>TOCOM</SPAN>橡胶市场<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>日收涨，日圆疲软以及泰国橡胶供应有限支撑，但欧债危机和中国加息预期压制涨幅，隔夜报收<SPAN lang=EN-US>359.9</SPAN>日圆<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>千克，环比上一日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.2</SPAN>日圆，今早报开<SPAN lang=EN-US>363.7</SPAN>日圆，盘面高开低走。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>10</SPAN>月中国轮胎外胎产量比去年同期增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.59%<BR></SPAN>喀麦隆<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年橡胶产量同比料增<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.8%<BR></SPAN>期货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>上期所仓单<SPAN lang=EN-US>48360</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>上海期货交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>RU1105</SPAN>成交及持仓前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>总排名，持买单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>40216</SPAN>手，增持<SPAN lang=EN-US>6023</SPAN>手；持卖单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>36452</SPAN>手，增持<SPAN lang=EN-US>1436</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>上海市场贸易商报价小幅上扬，云南国营全乳胶报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>30500-30600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，海南国营全乳胶报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>30200-30500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，海南国营<SPAN lang=EN-US>5#</SPAN>胶报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>30200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右；国储烟片报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>32300-32400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；听闻越南<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="l" SourceValue="3" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3L</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>胶<SPAN lang=EN-US>17</SPAN>税报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>31000-31200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：天然橡胶市场期现逐步价差趋于零，在<SPAN lang=EN-US>30000</SPAN>整数关口下方仍有不少买盘量涌入，成交量也相对提升，在供需趋于动态平衡的情况下，仍需关注宏观消息影响力度，短期以日内操作为主，中长线<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线下方多单谨慎轻仓观望，短线关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>日均线压力，维持<SPAN lang=EN-US>32000-30200</SPAN>区间操作。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR><BR>5<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>PTA<BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油收跌，因欧元区债务忧虑引发美元走强。<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 1</SPAN>月原油期货下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.62</SPAN>美元，报收<SPAN lang=EN-US>84.11</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、台湾东帝士计划<SPAN lang=EN-US>2012</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>月前将<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>装置提升至<SPAN lang=EN-US>53</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年，提升幅度<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年，增长率<SPAN lang=EN-US>26%</SPAN>，扩能分两阶段完成，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>月之前完成从<SPAN lang=EN-US>42</SPAN>万吨扩能至<SPAN lang=EN-US>47.5</SPAN>万吨，第二极端从<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>月至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2012</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>月装置总产能提升至<SPAN lang=EN-US>53</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、江浙地区涤丝整体产销疲弱，多数<SPAN lang=EN-US>4-5</SPAN>成，较低<SPAN lang=EN-US>2-3</SPAN>成，部分稍好在<SPAN lang=EN-US>6-7</SPAN>成。短期内，涤丝仍以震荡下行为主，跌幅略缓，而下游采购意向暂显清淡，多持观望态度。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货价格：<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>内盘现货气氛继续走弱，部分卖方报价回落至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9050-9100</SPAN>元，买家还盘参照期货近月合约降至<SPAN lang=EN-US>8950-9000</SPAN>元，可能的成交约在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近进行。外盘价格也缩量下跌，现货询盘明显回落，台产现货可能的成交在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1120-1130</SPAN>美元内进行，韩产现货有报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1130</SPAN>美元，可能的成交在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1110-1120</SPAN>美元附近进行。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>19544</SPAN>张，较上一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>张，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>912</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：国内持续的政策调控令商品市场承压调整；现货市场维持弱势，内盘考验<SPAN lang=EN-US>9000</SPAN>元整数关口，市场行情缺乏人气。江浙涤丝重心继续下移，部分工厂高位大幅下跌，下游织造因成本压力开机率走低；江浙聚酯切片震荡偏弱，观望气氛浓厚。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA1105</SPAN>合约震荡收跌，期价下探<SPAN lang=EN-US>9000</SPAN>关口后有所回升，短线测试<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线压力，延续弱势震荡走势。操作上，依托<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线短空。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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