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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">瑞达期货：内外不一，期指或续调整<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘指数 收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>道琼斯<SPAN lang=EN-US> 11092.00 -0.85% <BR></SPAN>纳斯达克<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2534.56 -0.34%<BR></SPAN>标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500 1189.40 -0.75%<BR></SPAN>富时<SPAN lang=EN-US>100 5668.70 -0.53% <BR></SPAN>德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX 6848.98 -0.45%<BR></SPAN>法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAC40 3728.65 -0.84%<BR>C0MEX</SPAN>黄金（<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月）<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1362.4 -8.70%<BR>NYMEX</SPAN>原油（<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月）<SPAN lang=EN-US> 83.76 -0.50% <BR></SPAN>美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 80.38 0.79<BR></SPAN>小结：受欧洲主权债务危机拖累，欧美股指全线下挫。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1. </SPAN>国务院六个督察组<SPAN lang=EN-US>18</SPAN>省区市调查物价；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2. </SPAN>人民日报连续<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>天发文论物价，中央出台措施稳民心；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3. </SPAN>中央经济工作会议前瞻，紧货币宽财政渐成共识；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>4. 10</SPAN>月外汇占款创<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>个月新高，市场人士预计<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月再加息；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>5. </SPAN>外资绕道限外令掘金中国楼市；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>6. </SPAN>住建部副部长称房价调控有<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>大难点：刚性需求、民间资本投资领域过窄、热钱涌动与人民币升值预期、税收制度缺失、地方政府对土地财政、各地经济发展差距。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>7. </SPAN>中俄联手抛弃美元本币结算，摆脱美元垄断储备货币；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>8. </SPAN>日本通过补充预算案，将推<SPAN lang=EN-US>5.09</SPAN>万亿日元<SPAN lang=EN-US>(</SPAN>约<SPAN lang=EN-US>4190</SPAN>亿元<SPAN lang=EN-US>) </SPAN>新经济刺激计划；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>9. </SPAN>新一轮欧债危机日渐<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>失控<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>欧洲央行和欧元区大部分成员国目前正在向葡萄牙施压，要求该国和爱尔兰一样主动寻求资金援助，以避免另一个有着<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>系统重要性<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>的经济体<SPAN lang=EN-US>——</SPAN>西班牙也受到波及落入困境；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>10.</SPAN>标普下调爱尔兰<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>家银行信用评级，爱尔兰拟于本周末达成求援协议；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>持仓分析：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>上周五前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名主力机构多头持单<SPAN lang=EN-US>14563</SPAN>，空方持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>16413</SPAN>，净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>1850</SPAN>手，空头比多头多减仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>629</SPAN>手，其中：前<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>名主力机构净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>2968</SPAN>。多空对比，空头占优，但优势逐步缩小。从持仓动向看，多空双方均采取减仓策略，空头减仓较为明显。值得注意的是，原空头主力中期期货<st1:PersonName w:st="on" ProductID="和国泰">和国泰</st1:PersonName>君安近几日持续减仓。主力持仓动向表明，一是随着紧缩货币政策逐步出台，市场对紧缩货币预期的担忧有所降低，待政策稍微明朗化，后市反弹的概率增大；二是，空头并采取空翻多策略，说明后市走势扔存在较大不确定性，双方减仓以避险。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>IF1012</SPAN>合约收盘报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3213</SPAN>点，预计<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1012</SPAN>期货合约的区间在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3245-3180</SPAN>之间运行，如上方冲破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3245</SPAN>点可以介入单多，止损下设<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>个点；如下方破点<SPAN lang=EN-US>3180</SPAN>可以小空，止损上设<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>个点。如在区间内窄幅震荡，可以高空低多的策略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>合约名称<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>HS300 3250 3220 3165 3140<BR>IF1012 3280 3245 3180 3140<BR>IF1101 3300 3275 3210 3180<BR>IF1103 3340 3310 3255 3225<BR>IF1106 3410 3370 3300 3270<BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期棉大幅下跌，欧元兑美元跌至两个月低位，导致整体市场情绪负面，令期棉承压。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月棉花下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.83</SPAN>美分，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>111.76</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、中国棉花协会<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>截止<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月，全国植棉面积<SPAN lang=EN-US>7800</SPAN>万亩，同口径比较，较上年减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1%</SPAN>。预计总产<SPAN lang=EN-US>663</SPAN>万吨，较<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月预计数减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>万吨，同口径相比较，较上年下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.4%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 2</SPAN>、本年度来乌兹别克已累计出口装运棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>19</SPAN>万吨，目前日平均装运量约为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2500</SPAN>吨，低于往年同期。由于市场需求旺盛，新加工的棉花很快就被国内及国际棉商采购，并很快出手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 3</SPAN>、<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="11" Day="25" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，进口棉中国主港报价全面反弹，但棉商在市场剧烈波动后报价比较谨慎，各品种的涨幅大致为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4—6</SPAN>美分，美棉和印度棉的涨幅小于期货。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>26681</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上一交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>221</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>45</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>77</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>主产区天气：受较强冷空气影响，未来两天，西北地区东部、华北、东北地区、黄淮等地降温达<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="10" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>10℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>，内蒙古中东部部分地区、东北地区中部等地降温幅度可达<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="10" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>10℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>以上。未来三天，东北、内蒙古中东部、新疆西南部山区等地有小到中雪（雨）或雨夹雪。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：央行上调存款准备金率，国务院出台<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>项措施稳定物价，政策调控对棉花市场构成调整压力；现货价格跌幅有所减弱，但现货市场成交量不足，表现疲软；个别棉花加工厂出现惜售心理。多数棉区纺企购买力也不强，观望较多，棉市购销停滞。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约大幅下挫，期价受<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线压制，进一步下测<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日线支撑，短线延续震荡回落走势。操作上，逢高短空交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><BR>2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">油脂<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：跟随大豆收低，美豆油延续震荡整理，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月合<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>约收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>50.25</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅；因美元走强引发部分获利了结，但对雨季大量降水或影响产量的忧虑限制跌势，<SPAN lang=EN-US>BMD</SPAN>棕榈油主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月合约收低<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.1%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>3274</SPAN>令吉<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息：国际方面，油世界表示，在全球油籽减产背景下，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>即使植物油价格涨至两年来的最高水平，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010/11</SPAN>年度全球八种<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>植物油需求仍将超过产量水平；<SPAN lang=EN-US>ITS</SPAN>和<SPAN lang=EN-US>SGS</SPAN>出口数据显示，马来<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>西亚出口水平依然保持良好，优于之前市场预期。国内方面，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>国家二度抛储菜籽油，抛储行为还将在未来两周内延续，企业<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>反响较上次抛储平淡；在国家加强调控的背景下，各大交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>纷纷提高保证金与收续费，对于大户加强监管。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货：受期货市场上周延续整理影响，油脂现货价格，棕<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>榈油相对抗跌。沿海四级豆油约为<SPAN lang=EN-US>9100-9450</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；港口棕榈<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>油报价集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US>8600-9200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；国内四级菜油出厂价格处于<SPAN lang=EN-US> 9800-10400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单：豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>5655</SPAN>张；棕榈油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>张；菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>5300</SPAN>张；均无<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>变化。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：就目前的情况而言，国家调控余韵不止，<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>万<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>吨的菜籽抛储仍将延续，商品市场短期难以回暖，震荡调整态<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>势为主。对于普通投资者而言，建议近期观望为主；上周推荐<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>的豆油与棕榈油之间套利在本周收到了良好成效，投资者可根<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>据目标位置进行止赢。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">谷物<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：受美元上涨打压，周五<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米期货市场小幅收低，当天总体成交量较低，市场呈现双边交易走势。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="11" Day="15" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，国内主产区已经累计收购<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年新产玉米<SPAN lang=EN-US>554.4</SPAN>万吨，其中国有粮食企业收购<SPAN lang=EN-US>165.7</SPAN>万吨，占收购总量的<SPAN lang=EN-US>30%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>IGC</SPAN>预计全球<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010/11</SPAN>年度小麦产量预估下调至<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.44</SPAN>亿吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、江苏粳稻价格攀升，粮农惜售观望。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：政策调控持续施压，国内玉米现货价格小幅波动。目前东北港口玉米价格保持坚挺走势，大连港内玉米平舱价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2080-2090</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，水分<SPAN lang=EN-US>14%</SPAN>，黑龙江新玉米到港价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2040-2050</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨上下，锦州港玉米平舱价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2090</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨上下，均较前一日基本持平；广东港内优质玉米报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2180-2200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较前一日基本持平，近期港口玉米到货相对较多，眼下港内玉米库存加未卸的约在<SPAN lang=EN-US>36</SPAN>万吨左右；郑州强筋小麦出库价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2350</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；江西九江早稻收购价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2020</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，水分<SPAN lang=EN-US>≤13.5%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存方面：玉米仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>990</SPAN>张，郑州强麦仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>5516</SPAN>张，早籼稻仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>6161</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：受加大调控力度预期打压，<SPAN lang=EN-US>c1109</SPAN>合约短期或震荡运行于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2250-2300</SPAN>区间；政策施压，<SPAN lang=EN-US>WS1105</SPAN>合约重心下移，短期或延续震荡偏弱格局；调控压力较大，短期<SPAN lang=EN-US>ER1105</SPAN>合约或延续震荡偏弱行情。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>虽然早晨糖价曾因美元走强而下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.5%</SPAN>，但受全球仅次于巴西的第二大产糖国<SPAN lang=EN-US>--</SPAN>印度可能推迟食糖出口的影响，周五<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>糖市原糖期货价格继续强劲上涨。<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>当日<SPAN lang=EN-US>1103</SPAN>期约糖价上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>+1.1%</SPAN>），收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>28.25</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅，本周至此糖价已上涨了<SPAN lang=EN-US>8%</SPAN>，这是三周来糖价唯一上涨的一周；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>期约糖价同时上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>29</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>+1.1%</SPAN>），以<SPAN lang=EN-US>25.72</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅报收。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、印度：批准三家糖业公司出口近<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.5</SPAN>万吨白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR>2</SPAN>、截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="11" Day="26" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>26</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>广西已有<SPAN lang=EN-US>28</SPAN>家糖厂开榨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内现货小幅下调，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7000</SPAN>（新糖）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1166</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1619</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内主产区天气：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>晚到明天，桂林、柳州、河池、百色、贺州、来宾、贵港、南宁、崇左等市阴天大部有小雨，我区其它地区阴天到多<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>云有分散小雨。南宁市：今晚到明天，阴天有分散小雨，东北风<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-2</SPAN>级，最低气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="15" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>15℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>，最高气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="19" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>19℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>技术上，郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约受周边商品恐慌性抛盘影响而再探<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线支撑，盘面显示<SPAN lang=EN-US>6300</SPAN>以下买盘支撑明显，后期有望展开反<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>弹行情，可短多参与。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><BR>5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">大豆豆粕<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、政府将于<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="12" Day="3" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>拍卖储备大豆<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、干旱天气使得阿根廷地区大豆播种放缓，将影响下年度的大豆的产量，阿根廷当地交易所已将产量预期调低。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：大豆期货结束了此前连续三个 交易日上涨，周五收跌，欧洲主权债务危机和中国拍储大豆的行为使得市场承压。主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月合约下跌了<SPAN lang=EN-US>16.5</SPAN>美分，至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1238.5</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、黑龙江省内部分大豆市场受降雪、期货价格变化及铁路发运影响，购销不旺，市场收购价格仍在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.9</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>斤附近，依品质不同有差异。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、豆粕现货报价相对平稳，沿海地区实际成交价格仍在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3350</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨以上，华南地区价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨以上，但需求仍显疲软。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">盘面分析：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">从走势上看，短期行情并不利于多头。豆粕虽然没有跌破前期的低点，但是较长的实体阴线显示下跌的动能仍旧存在，如果期价跌破目前的窄幅震荡平台，下方的空间将再次打开连豆粕资金继续流出，连大豆虽然资金流出不大，但是资金更愿意转向更远的<SPAN lang=EN-US>1201</SPAN>合约，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>11109</SPAN>合约走势无力，持仓大幅下滑。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">操作建议：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">盘面空头仍占据主导，在目前的环境下，多头资金已经无心恋战。虽然从长期看，豆类期价仍将重回基本面，但短线来看，期价下跌的压力仍旧较大。建议趋势操作者选择观望，短线投机者平多反空，选择轻仓。<B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">金属产品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">锌铝<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：周五，伦锌再遭重挫，且成交量温和放大，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2118</SPAN>美元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.84%</SPAN>；伦铝弱势徘徊，成交继续萎缩，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2275</SPAN>美元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.61%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>内外盘比价情况：锌内外比价最高<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.31</SPAN>，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.01</SPAN>，铝内外比价位于<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.14-7.24</SPAN>之间。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>爱尔兰政府：原则上达成<SPAN lang=EN-US>850</SPAN>亿欧元救助方案<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2.</SPAN>国际铝业协会：<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月全球铝库存较上月增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>74,000</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>16750-16850</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>425-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>325</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>16700-16800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>475-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>375</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>A00 </SPAN>铝报在<SPAN lang=EN-US>15950-15990</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>-</SPAN>升水<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存方面：本周锌现货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>295575</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>7854</SPAN>吨，期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>222482</SPAN>吨，较上周增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>4095</SPAN>吨。铝现货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>462040</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>13593</SPAN>吨，期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>329393</SPAN>吨，较上周减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>20309</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存最新库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>632175</SPAN>吨，较上周减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>2100</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铝库存最新库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4284125</SPAN>吨，较上周减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>18000</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：基本面上，虽陆续有减产消息传来，然供求过剩的局面尚未改变，现货市场成交仍显清淡。资金面上，沪铝主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单减少至<SPAN lang=EN-US>5000</SPAN>手以内；沪锌前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名空头持仓有所减少，而广发大幅增持<SPAN lang=EN-US>7000</SPAN>余手多单，使前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净空单回到<SPAN lang=EN-US>2000</SPAN>手以内。技术显示，市场存在破位的危险。操作建议：沪锌空单持有，止损位<SPAN lang=EN-US>17900</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；沪铝空单持有，止损位<SPAN lang=EN-US>16400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；未入场者暂时选择观望或日内交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铜<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：周五伦铜触底反弹，但尾盘仍收跌，因美元指数强劲上涨。目前铜价位于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日均线和<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线之间运行，涨跌两难，处于横盘整理。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>智利<SPAN lang=EN-US>Collahuasi</SPAN>铜矿罢工者料拒绝资方的最新薪资提议，因此罢工可能将持续。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>美国堪萨斯联储<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月制造业指数为<SPAN lang=EN-US>21</SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月为<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>，前值为<SPAN lang=EN-US>10.<BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现铜报<SPAN lang=EN-US>61500-61750</SPAN>元，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>200</SPAN>，较昨日小幅缩窄；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.50-7.52</SPAN>，继续走低，表明内盘走势较弱。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存：<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="11" Day="26" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>26</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铜库存增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>450</SPAN>吨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>357000</SPAN>吨，注销仓单占库存比为<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.9%</SPAN>，较昨日小幅增加，据历史数据显示，注销仓单占比在<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>之下的话，伦铜库存增加的可能性较大，目前的水平表明库存还将有减少的空间。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：周五伦铜在美元大幅上涨的背景下，尾盘收低，但盘中自低位小幅反弹。表明美元对伦铜的压制作用并不强，因美元上涨除了因为市场对欧债危机的忧虑以外，还有部分因为近期美国经济有转好的迹象。而美国经济的转好在一定程度上利多铜价。目前美元运行于均线组之上，上涨空间打开，伦铜在这样的背景下涨跌两难，预计继续横盘整理。今日沪铜料开于<SPAN lang=EN-US>62000</SPAN>附近，建议投资者保持日内震荡操作，如果铜价跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>62000</SPAN>，则可尝试轻仓抛空。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="mm" SourceValue="8" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>8mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4640</SPAN>，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="mm" SourceValue="20" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4800</SPAN>，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>(1) </SPAN>欧盟财长就爱尔兰救助计划达成一致<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) </SPAN>中国因素或将抑制商品价格上涨狂潮<SPAN lang=EN-US> (3) </SPAN>李稻葵：<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月加息暗示可能进一步调整利率<SPAN lang=EN-US>(4) </SPAN>印度粉矿<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="11" Day="26" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>26</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>170-172</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>32391</SPAN>，增<SPAN lang=EN-US>296</SPAN>。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>小结：周五<SPAN lang=EN-US>RB1105</SPAN>合约承压回落，出于对打击通胀进一步收紧信贷的担忧，股市及商品市场全线下挫，另外市场担心欧债危机扩散，美元指数强势走高。操作上建议空单继续依托<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线持有，关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>4600</SPAN>一线支撑力度。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：隔夜黄金在美元大幅上涨的打压下，结束反弹，出现下跌，其中<SPAN lang=EN-US>COMEX12</SPAN>月黄金跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.87%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1362.4</SPAN>，金价再次回到均线交织处运行，走势震荡。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美国堪萨斯联储<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月制造业指数为<SPAN lang=EN-US>21</SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月为<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>，前值为<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>26</SPAN>日<SPAN lang=EN-US>SPDR</SPAN>基金黄金持有量继续持平于<SPAN lang=EN-US>1285.08<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：上海黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US>9999</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>294.85</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.14</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，跌幅为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.39 % <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：周五外盘金受美元上涨打压而出现下跌，目前金价处于多空因素交织的行情当中，涨跌两难。因为美元指数破位上涨，后期上涨空间被打开，压制金价上涨。另外市场对欧洲债务问题的担忧还未完全散去，黄金避险需求亦继续存在。而且<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月为黄金的消费旺季，对金价亦构成支撑，因此短线来看，金价回调压力加大，而中线依旧看涨。鉴于此，金价中线逢低买入，短线小量抛空，外盘注意下方<SPAN lang=EN-US>1350</SPAN>的支撑，内盘则注意<SPAN lang=EN-US>290</SPAN>的支撑，如果跌破则中线建仓可下调至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1300-1320</SPAN>区间。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">连塑<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、发改委：<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月化工行业增加值同比增<SPAN lang=EN-US>13.5%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>2015</SPAN>年中国丙烯产能将达<SPAN lang=EN-US>2200</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>现货价格有所回落。扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>10850</SPAN>，较昨日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>350</SPAN>元。市场观望气氛浓重，交投清淡。亚洲乙烯走势则相对平稳，东北亚报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1009——1011</SPAN>美元，东南亚报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1000——1002</SPAN>美元，与昨日持平。市场观望气氛浓厚，成交清淡。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>27183</SPAN>张，较昨日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：今日连塑再度大幅回落，距离下方强支撑位仅一步之遥。显示市场做多信心仍显不足。基本面上，亚洲乙烯价格坚挺对连塑形成一定的支撑。但货币政策再度收紧，加息预期不断在一定程度上打压了市场做多信心，预计短期连塑料仍将维持弱势。但经前期连续下挫，短线有一定的反弹要求，短线交易者关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>11150</SPAN>一线的支撑力度。操作上，投资者手中空单逢低分批获利了结。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><BR>2 PVC<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、房地产企业融资进一步受限<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>房产信托产品全面暂停；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>装置开工受限<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>受原料供给影响明显。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货价平稳运行，华东地区乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8900</SPAN>元，电石法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8650</SPAN>元，均与上一交易日持平。厂家有惜售心理，以合同订单发货为主。西北电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>4300</SPAN>元，华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>4700</SPAN>元，与昨日持平。市场成交一般。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1188</SPAN>张，较昨日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>放量增仓下行，显示短期走势仍弱。基本面上，电石价格坚挺对<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>形成一定的成本支撑。但货币政策进一步收紧，加息预期不断在一定程度上打压了市场的做多信心，现货价格小幅回落、消费淡季需求减弱也对<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>的反弹形成压力。预计<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>仍有调整要求。操作上，投资者手中空单继续谨慎持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>PTA<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、远东石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>挂牌价出台至<SPAN lang=EN-US>10000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上月挂牌价下调<SPAN lang=EN-US>700</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、中石化正式公布十一月聚酯切片结算价，半光切片结<SPAN lang=EN-US>12800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，有光切片结<SPAN lang=EN-US>12650</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，工业丝切片结<SPAN lang=EN-US>12650</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，全消光切片结<SPAN lang=EN-US>13600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、受下游织造刚性备货带动，江浙涤丝产销适度回升，多<SPAN lang=EN-US>100-150%</SPAN>，部分工厂较高<SPAN lang=EN-US>200%</SPAN>左右；局部地区产销一般<SPAN lang=EN-US>6-8</SPAN>成。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货价格：华东<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场行情偏弱，市场询盘依然清淡，持货方报盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9350</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，主流商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9250-9300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近展开，实盘稀少。亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场气氛低迷，受期货走跌影响，现货买卖双方持观望态度，少量台货商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1155-1160</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，韩国货商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1145</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，实盘稀少。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>19552</SPAN>张，较前一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>285</SPAN>张，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>614</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：国内持续的政策调控以及美元走强令商品市场承压调整；国内<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>合同价高结未能给市场带来支撑，现货市场继续走低，现货人气低迷，商谈回落。江浙涤丝产销局部回升，下游织造因成本压力开机率走低，江浙聚酯切片成交杂乱。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA1105</SPAN>合约大幅下跌，期价受<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日均线压制，短线进一步看向<SPAN lang=EN-US>9000</SPAN>关口支撑，延续震荡回落走势。操作上，反弹抛空为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">燃料油<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国际市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="11" Day="26" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False">11<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月26</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>周五，因围绕欧元区债务危机的担忧不断加剧，抵消了假期购物季伊始乐观销售状况带来的提振作用，美股收盘走低。NYMEX</SPAN></SPAN>一月份原油期货合约结算价跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>美分，至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>83.76</SPAN>美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>布伦特一月份原油期货合约跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>52</SPAN>美分，至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>85.58</SPAN>美元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.6%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>西班牙首相萨帕特罗周五表示，西班牙绝对不可能寻求欧盟的救助。但他试图安抚市场的努力收效甚微，欧元大幅下挫，西班牙和葡萄牙主权债券继续遭抛售。市场对欧元区债务危机将继续蔓延的担忧情绪促使美元上涨，纽约商业交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>(NYMEX)</SPAN>原油期货收盘小幅走低，汽油和取暖油期货同步下行。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>紧缩政策和美元反弹施压<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>商品后市仍将调整。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>欧元区债务危机升级 美元攀至近两月高点。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>上期所仓单<SPAN lang=EN-US>402600</SPAN>吨，增持<SPAN lang=EN-US>6000</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>上海期货交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>FU1103</SPAN>成交及持仓前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>总排名，持买单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>19711</SPAN>手，增持<SPAN lang=EN-US>1335</SPAN>手；持卖单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>29950</SPAN>手，增持<SPAN lang=EN-US>1027</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>由于外盘走势不明朗，加之燃料油市场需求较弱，非标油市场市场资源有限，报价继续守稳。华南船用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>交易过驳价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4590-4600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；库提价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4600-4610</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价持平。船用<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>供船在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4600-4680</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，锅炉用<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>品质较好的<SPAN lang=EN-US>4500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：外盘局势并不十分明朗，多空因素交错，国内市场气氛偏弱但在给力回调之后，下行空间也受到一定限制，上周沪燃主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>1103</SPAN>合约报收<SPAN lang=EN-US>4690</SPAN>点（或<SPAN lang=EN-US>-1.51%</SPAN>），较之前跌幅进一步缩小，成交量<SPAN lang=EN-US>70808</SPAN>手，持仓量<SPAN lang=EN-US>67194</SPAN>手，减持<SPAN lang=EN-US>240</SPAN>手。低点有被逐步抬高的迹像，下周若能站在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4660</SPAN>之上，有望出现反弹行情。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">天然橡胶早评<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">NYMEX</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">原油期货电子盘周五徘徊在每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>84</SPAN>美元附近<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>守住近期涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>因美元回撤，<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>一月份原油期货合约结算价跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>美分，至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>83.76</SPAN>美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>TOCOM</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">橡胶期货周五收低<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.1%</SPAN>，受多头平仓打压。基准<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月橡胶合约收盘下滑<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.5</SPAN>日圆，报每公斤<SPAN lang=EN-US>355.2</SPAN>日圆，脱离盘中触及的低点<SPAN lang=EN-US>--</SPAN>每公斤<SPAN lang=EN-US>351.7</SPAN>日圆。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">越南统计局周四称，该国<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月橡胶出口量较去年同期增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>11%</SPAN>，至<SPAN lang=EN-US>90,000</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">亚洲现货橡胶价格大多走高，买家较为谨慎。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">上期所仓单<SPAN lang=EN-US>48265</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>90</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">上海期货交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>RU1105</SPAN>成交及持仓前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>总排名，持买单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>43452</SPAN>手，减持<SPAN lang=EN-US>5193</SPAN>手；持卖单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>43669</SPAN>手，减持<SPAN lang=EN-US>2987</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">上海市场贸易商报价整体持稳，波动有限，云南国营全乳胶报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>31700-31900</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨区间内震荡；少量泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US>3#</SPAN>烟片新胶<SPAN lang=EN-US>17</SPAN>税报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>35300-35500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，国储烟片报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>32900-33000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；越南<SPAN lang=EN-US>3L</SPAN>胶<SPAN lang=EN-US>17</SPAN>税报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>32500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：受欧元区债务危机的不断升级，天胶上周跌幅达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>11.74%</SPAN>，上周五更以跌停收盘，收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>30375</SPAN>点，成交量<SPAN lang=EN-US>764610</SPAN>手，持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>162928</SPAN>手，减持<SPAN lang=EN-US>24938</SPAN>手。短期仍将维持弱势震荡格局，后市是否能守住<SPAN lang=EN-US>30000</SPAN>点整数关口，多头仍以观望为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">『免责声明：期市瞬息万变，盘中突发消息也将影响走势突变，投资人应盘中实时应
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