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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">股指期货<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">瑞达期货：<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>期指大幅震荡，反弹上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘指数 收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>道琼斯<SPAN lang=EN-US> 11187.30 150.91 1.37% <BR></SPAN>纳斯达克<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2543.12 48.17 1.93% <BR></SPAN>标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500 1198.35 17.62 1.49%<BR></SPAN>富时<SPAN lang=EN-US>100 5657.10 75.82 1.36% <BR></SPAN>德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX 6823.80 118.80 1.77%<BR></SPAN>法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAC40 3747.61 23.19 0.62%<BR>C0MEX</SPAN>黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1373.6 -4.6 -0.33%<BR>NYMEX</SPAN>原油<SPAN lang=EN-US> 83.86 2.61 3.21%<BR></SPAN>美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 79.54 -0.08 -0.10%<BR> </SPAN>小结：周三美国股市大幅收高。感恩节假期即将到来，美国就业市场好转、消费者信心指数创<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>个月新高等消息使市场情绪乐观，帮助大盘挽回了昨天所蒙受的损失。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1. </SPAN>央行再度发出收缩流动性信号。控制好今年后两个月信贷投放；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2. </SPAN>预计<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年新增信贷规模<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.5</SPAN>万亿元左右；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3. </SPAN>韩朝冲突震荡金融市场，人民币升值压力暂缓；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>4</SPAN>．<SPAN lang=EN-US>13</SPAN>家央企试点分红权激励，将分配利润奖励骨干；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>5</SPAN>．上交所加大内幕交易监管与防控力度，证监会打击内幕交易力度空前；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>6. </SPAN>工行昨日复牌<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>股价封住跌停。分析人士称，工行<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>诱空<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>传递见底信号；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>7. </SPAN>德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>Ifo</SPAN>商务景气指数上升至德国统一以来最高水平；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>8. </SPAN>美国消费者信心指数为<SPAN lang=EN-US>71.60</SPAN>，好于预期；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>9. </SPAN>美国申领失业救济人数为<SPAN lang=EN-US>40.7</SPAN>万，创历史新低；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>10.</SPAN>爱尔兰出炉<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>亿欧元财政裁减计划；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>11.</SPAN>欧洲央行开始买进葡萄牙债券以支撑欧元，<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>多米诺效应<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>笼罩欧洲；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>持仓分析：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名多头主力持单<SPAN lang=EN-US>15676</SPAN>，空头持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>20116</SPAN>，净空持仓（空头<SPAN lang=EN-US>—</SPAN>多头）<SPAN lang=EN-US>4440</SPAN>。其中：前<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>名主力机构净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>6760</SPAN>，表明空头持仓维持高位且持仓集中度高，优势明显，且优势较周二有所提高。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>从持仓动向来看，昨日多头、空头均采取进场建仓策略，多空双方隔夜持仓量较上一交易日有所增加。空军司令中证期货较好踏准市场节拍，周二大幅减持空单以避险，昨日又大幅增加空仓，唱衰后市；而传统期货公司江苏弘业则针锋相对大幅补多；整体而言，多空分歧较大。持仓动向表明：一是，因市场仍不明朗，多空进出频繁；二是，前期积累的机构套利、套保资金使得空头依然保持优势；三是，从持仓来看，做空动能强如做多，预计周四震荡走弱概率较高。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>技术方面来看，<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1012</SPAN>合约收盘报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3197</SPAN>点，预计<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1012</SPAN>期货合约的区间在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3240-3125</SPAN>之间运行，如上方冲破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3243</SPAN>点可以介入单多，止损下设<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>个点；如下方破点<SPAN lang=EN-US>3125</SPAN>可以小空，止损上设<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>个点。如在区间内窄幅震荡，可以高空低多的策略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>合约名称<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>HS300 3235 3206 3118 3059<BR>IF1012 3289 3240 3125 3059<BR>IF1101 3354 3297 3155 3070<BR>IF1103 3396 3338 3191 3102<BR>IF1106 3432 3382 3259 3186<BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>由于市场担心全球第二大产糖国<SPAN lang=EN-US>--</SPAN>印度的食糖供给出问题，加上全球第三大食糖出口国<SPAN lang=EN-US>--</SPAN>澳大利亚食糖出口有限，本周三<SPAN lang=EN-US> ICE</SPAN>糖市原糖期货价格继续暴涨。当日<SPAN lang=EN-US>1103</SPAN>期约糖价暴涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>62</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>+2.3%</SPAN>），收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>27.95</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅，本周至此糖价已上涨了<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.9% </SPAN>，<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="7" Month="5" Year="2010"><SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>糖价一度下探<SPAN lang=EN-US>13</SPAN>个月以来<SPAN lang=EN-US>13</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅的低点；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>期约糖价同时暴涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>+2%</SPAN>），以<SPAN lang=EN-US>25.43</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅报收。周四为<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>西方感恩节，<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>糖市放假。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、印度：降雨影响<SPAN lang=EN-US>Uttar Pradesh</SPAN>邦推迟至<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月底开榨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>截至到<SPAN lang=EN-US>24</SPAN>日统计，广西已经有<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>家糖厂开榨，已开榨糖厂占全区糖厂总数的<SPAN lang=EN-US>19.6%<BR></SPAN>国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内现货小幅上调，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>6980</SPAN>（新糖）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1280</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1260</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内主产区天气：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>今天白天到晚上，玉林、贵港、南宁、崇左、百色、钦州、北海、防城港等市阴天有小雨，局部有中雨，我区其它地区多云<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>到阴天。南宁市：今天白天到晚上，阴天有小雨，东北风<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-2</SPAN>级，最高气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="21" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>21℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>，最低气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="13" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>13℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>技术上，郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约周边商品普遍反弹及现货回升影响而出现反弹，注意上方<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>日均线处的压力，当前操作宜按区间<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>（<SPAN lang=EN-US>6250—6650</SPAN>）的震荡思路进行。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期棉大幅收高，得益于关键技术位支撑。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月棉花上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.8</SPAN>美分，收报每磅<SPAN lang=EN-US>116.59</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月，我国棉布进口<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.73</SPAN>亿米，环比减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>9.05%</SPAN>，同比减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>10.43%</SPAN>。同月我国棉布出口<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.79</SPAN>亿米，环比减幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.13%</SPAN>，同比增幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>18.21%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月，我国棉纱进口<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.05</SPAN>万吨，环比减幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.19%</SPAN>，与去年同期基本持平。同月出口<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.22</SPAN>万吨，环比增幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>5.8%</SPAN>，同比缩减<SPAN lang=EN-US>18.11%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 2</SPAN>、印度纺织部秘书丽塔<SPAN lang=EN-US>?</SPAN>梅农表示，纺织部不会改变本年度<SPAN lang=EN-US>93.5</SPAN>万吨的棉花出口上限。梅农说，目前纺织部并没有计划重审棉花出口限制。印度棉花咨询委员会预测本年度印度棉花产量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>552.5</SPAN>万吨。印度纺织业每月需要消费<SPAN lang=EN-US>39.1-40.8</SPAN>万吨棉花，目前剩余棉花已经不多。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 3</SPAN>、<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="23" Month="11" Year="2010"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>23</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，尽管<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期货连续跌停，但进口棉中国主港报价仍较抗跌，虽然西非棉、中亚棉和巴西棉下跌了<SPAN lang=EN-US>4-7</SPAN>美分，而美棉仅下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.4</SPAN>美分，埃及长绒棉大幅上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>5-15</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>27288</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上一交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>593</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>45</SPAN>张，较前一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>73</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>主产区天气：受较强冷空气影响，未来两天，我国中东部大部地区将出现明显的大风降温天气。西北地区东部、华北、东北地区、黄淮等地降温达<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>～<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="10" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>10℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>，内蒙古中东部部分地区、东北地区中部等地降温幅度可达<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="10" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>10℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>以上。未来三天，新疆北部和西部山区、东北地区中北部等地有小到中雪（雨）或雨夹雪。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：央行再度上调准备金，国务院出台<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>项措施稳定物价，政策调控对棉花市场构成调整压力；现货价格延续缓跌走势，期现维持倒挂支撑期价反弹。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约探低回升，期价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>24000</SPAN>一线止跌企稳，短线反抽上方均线压力，有望呈现震荡回升走势。操作上，低位短多介入。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">油脂<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：美豆油跟随大豆的涨势，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月合约收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>50.24</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅，上涨了<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.02</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>基本面，<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、商务预报：上周（<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="15" Month="11" Year="2010"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>21</SPAN>日）国内食用油零售价格上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.7%</SPAN>。其中豆油、菜籽油、花生油零售价格分别上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.9%</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.8%</SPAN>和<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.6%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、发改委和银监会继续加大措施来抑制农产品价格上涨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面，国内油脂价格保持平稳，<SPAN lang=EN-US>24</SPAN>度棕榈油报价集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US>8750</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，部分地区价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>8500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。四级豆油市场价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9300-9400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，广州地区价格较低在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。菜籽油价格平稳，各地价格集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US>10000-10200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>今天油脂价格强势反弹，豆油<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约较昨天结算价上涨了<SPAN lang=EN-US>194</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨幅达到了<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.1%</SPAN>；棕榈油和菜籽油的涨幅也在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.5%</SPAN>以上。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>油脂今天的表现抢眼，在前期持续的弱势后，期价强烈反弹。但是结合整个行情走势，目前说行情转势仍显过早，但同时也说明期价下跌的空间已经受到抑制。操作上建议趋势操作者仍需观望，激进投机者多单谨慎介入。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">谷物<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：受大豆上涨及南美天气担忧支撑，周三<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米期货市场收高。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、拉尼娜气候限制阿根廷降雨，令该国种植季节受天气干燥威胁，阿根廷玉米单产面临严<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>重威胁；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、未来一周，临沂仍无降雨出现，<SPAN lang=EN-US>170</SPAN>万亩小麦旱情加剧；<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、截止<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="21" Month="11" Year="2010"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>21</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，安徽省宣城全累计<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>收购晚籼稻<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.2</SPAN>万吨，其中国有企业收购<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>万吨，比去年同期减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>39%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：政策调控持续施压，国内玉米现货价格整体涨势放缓，大连港内玉米平舱价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2080</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，上<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，前几日价格下跌后收购无量导致贸易商重新提价收购；广东港口优质玉米价格走势平稳，目前<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>广东港内优质玉米报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2180-2200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，眼下港内玉米库存<SPAN lang=EN-US>22</SPAN>万吨，到港未卸的<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>万吨，约在<SPAN lang=EN-US>33</SPAN>万吨左<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>右，优质玉米货源十分有限；郑州强筋小麦出库价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2320</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持稳；江西九江早稻收购价<SPAN lang=EN-US>1990</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，水<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>分<SPAN lang=EN-US>≤13.5%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存方面：玉米仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>990</SPAN>张，郑州强麦仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>5516</SPAN>张，早籼稻仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>6230</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：受加大调控力度预期打压，<SPAN lang=EN-US>c1109</SPAN>合约短期或延续震荡调整，但现货供需失衡进一步加剧，中长期上涨格局没变；政策施压，<SPAN lang=EN-US>WS1105</SPAN>合约重心下移，短期或延续震荡格局；资金逐步退出，<SPAN lang=EN-US>ER1105</SPAN>合约均线系统趋于平缓，操作上暂时观望或日内短线交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">5<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">大豆豆粕<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、印度十一月份的出口量可能达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2</SPAN>、《大商所从<SPAN lang=EN-US>29</SPAN>日开始取消各品种当日开平仓手续费半价优惠政策。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：美豆期价走高，中国需求和南美天气共同影响市场，但期价涨势比较温和，感恩节来临前，交易商不愿承担太多风险。<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>大豆：<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1255</SPAN>，上涨了<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>美分。从近期美豆走势看，回暖的迹象明显。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、市场国产大豆价格仍多在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.9</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>斤以上，但部分地区价格略有下滑，佳木斯地区价格达到了<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.89</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>斤。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、豆粕现货价格今天小幅上涨，价格上调了<SPAN lang=EN-US>10-20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，目前沿海地区主流价格已经能在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3350-3400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，东北大豆产区价格能在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3220</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>盘面分析：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>今天连盘大豆走势较强，但持仓和成交下滑，上涨动能略显不足。目前期价在下跌之势中构筑了一个短期震荡平台，后期走势如何演绎仍需保持谨慎态度。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>豆粕期价反弹，受外盘上涨带动，期价开盘后高位整理，资金继续流出，期价拉升的力量不足。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>操作建议：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>近期市场为基本面和政策面的博弈过程，走势也大幅震荡，虽然今天反弹，但未摆脱低位的盘整区间，对于投资者来说，此时的行情谨慎参与。建议趋势投机者选择观望，激进投机者继续持有多单。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">金属产品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">锌、铝交易提示<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜，伦锌高开震荡，震荡区间收窄，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2134</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.86%</SPAN>；伦铝微幅回升，日线收倒<SPAN lang=EN-US>T</SPAN>字星，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2262</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.45%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>内外盘比价情况：锌内外比价最高<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.43</SPAN>，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.21</SPAN>，铝内外比价位于<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.09-7.22</SPAN>之间。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月预售屋销量大幅下滑<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2.</SPAN>美国申请失业救济资料好于预期<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>16800-16900</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上交易日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>430-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>330</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>16750-16850</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>480-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>380</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>A00 </SPAN>铝报在<SPAN lang=EN-US>16000-16040</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>-</SPAN>升水<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>632700</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>500</SPAN>吨，上海交易所锌期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>224459</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1053</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铝库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4391675</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>2925</SPAN>吨，上海交易所铝期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>334987</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>3982</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：基本面上，锌铝供求过剩格局未改，现货市场成交清淡。资金面上，沪铝主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净净空单在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>万手以内；沪锌前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名空头持仓有所减少，净空单回到<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.5</SPAN>万手以内。技术显示，市场弱势未改。操作建议：沪锌空单可持有，止损位<SPAN lang=EN-US>17900</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；沪铝已建空单单者持有，止损位<SPAN lang=EN-US>16400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；为入场者暂时选择观望或日内交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铜<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：昨日伦铜在触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线之后，出现小幅反弹，因市场恐慌情绪有所缓和，目前铜价交织于多条均线，走势较反复。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月新屋销售环比下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.1%</SPAN>，年率为<SPAN lang=EN-US>28.3</SPAN>万户，差于预期的<SPAN lang=EN-US>31</SPAN>万户。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值为<SPAN lang=EN-US>71.6</SPAN>，之前市场预估为<SPAN lang=EN-US>69.5</SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月初值为<SPAN lang=EN-US>69.3.<BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现铜报<SPAN lang=EN-US>61850-62250</SPAN>元，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>250</SPAN>，小幅扩大；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.53-7.57</SPAN>，在上涨行情中，比值走高，表明内盘下跌意愿不强。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存：<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="24" Month="11" Year="2010"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>24</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铜库存减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>925</SPAN>吨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>357125</SPAN>吨，注销仓单占库存比为<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.88%</SPAN>，较昨日小幅减少，据历史数据显示，注销仓单占比在<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>之下的话，伦铜库存增加的可能性较大，目前的水平表明库存还将有减少的空间。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：隔夜伦铜小幅收高，因市场风险厌恶情绪有所缓解。一方面朝韩军事冲突有所缓和，另一方面美国就业数据好于预期，提振美国对工业金属需求的乐观情绪。但有一点我们要注意到，近期伦铜持仓持续减少，这表明铜价高位有获利了结盘，资金的流出对铜价走势极其不利。不过伦铜库存的持续减少又始终对铜价构成支撑，这就造就了铜价的震荡行情。建议投资者保持日内震荡操作，今日气氛稍有转好，可尝试短多思路，止损收盘于<SPAN lang=EN-US>62000</SPAN>之下。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="mm" SourceValue="8" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>8mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4610</SPAN>，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="mm" SourceValue="20" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4780</SPAN>，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>(1) </SPAN>印度铁矿石进口降四成 国产矿迎销售小阳春<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) </SPAN>中央经济工作会议酝酿提高通胀目标<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2011</SPAN>年可能为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>％<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) </SPAN>房地产信托发行受阻 地产融资遭遇“关门堵窗”<SPAN lang=EN-US>(4) </SPAN>印度粉矿<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="24" Month="11" Year="2010"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>24</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>168-170</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>24964</SPAN>，减<SPAN lang=EN-US>892</SPAN>。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">小结：周三<SPAN lang=EN-US>RB1105</SPAN>合约增仓上行。出厂价及现货价上调为期钢带来支撑，技术上期价突破各均线压制，操作上建议关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>4700</SPAN>上方压力，突破多单继续持有，否则多单出场短空。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：隔夜黄金小幅震荡收跌，因市场风险厌恶情绪有所下降，在这样的背景下，美元指数的小幅上涨打压金价，其中<SPAN lang=EN-US>COMEX12</SPAN>月黄金微跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.33%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1373</SPAN>，金价依旧运行于均线组之上，上涨趋势明显。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月新屋销售环比下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.1%</SPAN>，年率为<SPAN lang=EN-US>28.3</SPAN>万户，差于预期的<SPAN lang=EN-US>31</SPAN>万户。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值为<SPAN lang=EN-US>71.6</SPAN>，之前市场预估为<SPAN lang=EN-US>69.5</SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月初值为<SPAN lang=EN-US>69.3.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3.<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="23" Month="11" Year="2010">11<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月23</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate>SPDR</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">基金黄金持有量继续持平于<SPAN lang=EN-US>1285.08<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：上海黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US>9999</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>296.3</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.56</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，涨幅为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.19 % <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：昨日金价小幅震荡收跌，但仍运行于均线组之上，上涨趋势明显，而且近期金价低点一次比一次高，表明金价回调意愿不强，倾向于上涨。昨日受朝韩军事冲突有所缓和以及美就业数据提振了经济前景，市场风险厌恶情绪有所下降。但由于欧债危机的隐忧继续存在，黄金的避险需求也继续存在，而且第四季度为黄金的消费旺季，预计后期金价依然有一定的上涨空间。短线来看，今日金价料有所承压，建议投资者逢回调轻仓做多。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>LLDPE<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、乙烯市场复苏产量同比增<SPAN lang=EN-US>28.97%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、特种复合材料成功打造塑料齿轮。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>上、下游均平稳运行。扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>11200</SPAN>，与上一交易日持平。市场观望气氛浓重，交投清淡。亚洲乙烯今日走势平稳，东北亚报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1009——1011</SPAN>美元，东南亚报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1000——1002</SPAN>美元，与昨日持平。市场观望气氛浓厚，成交清淡。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>27119</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>245</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日连塑弱势整理，小阳线报收。盘中反弹力度不强，但显示下方支撑已初步显现。基本面上，亚洲乙烯反弹对连塑形成一定的支撑。但货币政策再度收紧，加息预期不断在一定程度上打压了市场做多信心，短期弱势仍难改变。昨夜原油大幅反弹，预计对今日商品将产生一定的利好影响。连塑有望随之反弹。操作上，建议投资者以日内交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>PVC<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、氯碱行业<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>十二五<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>严格总量控制；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月份中国石脑油进口量同比下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>27.93%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货价走势平稳，华东地区乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8950</SPAN>元，电石法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8700</SPAN>元，市场交投一般。西北电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>4200</SPAN>元，华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>4700</SPAN>元，均与上一交易日持平，市场成交一般。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1248</SPAN>张，较上一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：昨日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>反弹无力，上方多条均线均对其构成一定的压力。基本面上，现货价格坚挺，电石价格居高不下对<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>形成有力的成本支撑。但货币政策进一步收紧，加息预期不断在一定程度上打压了市场的做多信心，需求减弱也对<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>的反弹形成压力。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>仍将延续弱势格局。昨夜原油大幅反弹，预计对今日商品将产生一定的利好影响。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>有望随之反弹。操作上，建议投资者以日内交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">燃料油<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="24" Month="11" Year="2010">11<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月24</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>，因多项最新经济数据显示美国经济前景改善，鼓舞投资者信心，纽约商业交易所(NYMEX)</SPAN></SPAN>原油期货结算价上涨，扭转了此前跌向<SPAN lang=EN-US>80</SPAN>美元的走势。<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>一月份原油期货合约结算价涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.61</SPAN>美元，至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>83.86</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.2%</SPAN>，为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>个月来的最大单日百分比涨幅。<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>布伦特原油期货涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.59</SPAN>美元，至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>85.84</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.1%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>阿布扎比前<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月原油平均售价增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>28.21%<BR></SPAN>中石化柴油停止出口<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>进口增至<SPAN lang=EN-US>28</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>上期所仓单<SPAN lang=EN-US>396600</SPAN>吨，持平<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>上海期货交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>FU1103</SPAN>成交及持仓前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>总排名，持买单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>21395</SPAN>手，减持<SPAN lang=EN-US>682</SPAN>手；持卖单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>33809</SPAN>手，增持<SPAN lang=EN-US>982</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>华南船用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>交易过驳价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4590-4600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；库提价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4600-4610</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。华东船用<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>供船在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4600-4680</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨底线再降<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，锅炉用<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>品质较好的<SPAN lang=EN-US>4600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：燃料油基本面市场气氛偏弱，价格下挫，期货市场短期虽受国际油价支撑小幅反弹，但技术形态以及量价上未能达到有效支撑，建议投资者中线买入单暂且观望，短期<SPAN lang=EN-US>4690-4780</SPAN>窄幅震荡为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>PTA<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油大幅上涨，因美国经济数据改善。<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 1</SPAN>月原油期货上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.16</SPAN>美元，报收<SPAN lang=EN-US>84.2</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、逸盛石化、远东石化、中石化、珠海<SPAN lang=EN-US>BP 11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>合约结算价均出台<SPAN lang=EN-US>9900</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月结算价格上调<SPAN lang=EN-US>1300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、翔鹭石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>合同客户结价出台为<SPAN lang=EN-US>9900</SPAN>元／吨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月挂牌价出台为<SPAN lang=EN-US>9900</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>、江浙短纤市场行情趋稳，市场主流报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>17000-17500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，商谈重心维持在<SPAN lang=EN-US>15300-17000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近。下游观望气氛较浓，实际成交稀少。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货价格：华东<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场气氛趋稳，市场少量报盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9650</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，持货方低价惜售，市场主流商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9550-9600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，实盘清淡。亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场行情微扬，市场台产货报盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1185</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1175-1180</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，韩国货商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1165-1170</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>21289</SPAN>张，较前一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>287</SPAN>张，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1145</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：国内货币紧缩忧虑以及美元走强仍令商品市场承压；国内主流供应商<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月合同结算价出台在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9900</SPAN>元／吨，现货市场有所企稳，低价位卖方出货意向不强，但高价位买家观望。江浙涤纶长丝市场涤丝产销延续低迷，下游织造因成本压力开机率走低，追高乏力。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA1105</SPAN>合约小幅回升，期价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9500</SPAN>一线有所企稳，短线反抽上方均线压力，有望以<SPAN lang=EN-US>9500-10000</SPAN>区间震荡为主。操作上，区间交易，适当短多参与。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">5<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">天然橡胶<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>新近出炉的多项经济数据表明，美国经济已显露出改善迹象。最新一周首次申请失业救济人数降至两年多来最低水平，<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月份美国个人收入增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.5%</SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>一月份原油期货合约结算价涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.61</SPAN>美元，至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>83.86</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.2%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>TOCOM</SPAN>橡胶期货一度补跌下跌至<SPAN lang=EN-US>356.4</SPAN>日圆<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>千克附近，随着国际油价的温和走高，阳线报收<SPAN lang=EN-US>359.5</SPAN>日圆<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>千克，今日低开高走至<SPAN lang=EN-US>367.0</SPAN>日圆<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>千克。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>11</SPAN>月份国内天然橡胶产量约能达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2010</SPAN>年前<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>季度山东口岸出口轮胎<SPAN lang=EN-US>8969</SPAN>万条<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>上期所仓单<SPAN lang=EN-US>45450</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>上海期货交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>RU1105</SPAN>成交及持仓前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>总排名，持买单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>42828</SPAN>手，增持<SPAN lang=EN-US>6944</SPAN>手；持卖单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>41888</SPAN>手，增持<SPAN lang=EN-US>5244</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>上海市场贸易商报价窄幅调整，云南国营全乳胶报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>32000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，高端报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>32200-32300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，海南国营全乳胶报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>32000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，海南<SPAN lang=EN-US>5#</SPAN>胶报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>31500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右；少量泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US>3#</SPAN>烟片新胶<SPAN lang=EN-US>17</SPAN>税报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>35300-35500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，国储烟片报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>32900</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右；越南<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="l" SourceValue="3" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>3L</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>胶<SPAN lang=EN-US>17</SPAN>税报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>32500-32600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：天然橡胶市场周初利空消息逐步消化，技术层面上也出现回稳调整行情，但受上方均线压制，反弹空间相对有限，建议投资者中线买入单暂且观望，短期或将在<SPAN lang=EN-US>32200-33200</SPAN>区间震荡。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">『免责声明：期市瞬息万变，盘中突发消息也将影响走势突变，投资人应盘中实时应
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