<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">盘面走势<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>今日郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约开盘报<SPAN lang=EN-US>24930</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，收盘于<SPAN lang=EN-US>25225</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较前一交易日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1225</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨幅为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.53%</SPAN>；成交量增至<SPAN lang=EN-US>138.51</SPAN>万手，持仓减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>9584</SPAN>手至<SPAN lang=EN-US>20.53</SPAN>万手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">、<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月，我国棉布进口<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.73</SPAN>亿米，环比减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>9.05%</SPAN>，同比减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>10.43%</SPAN>。同月我国棉布出口<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.79</SPAN>亿米，环比减幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.13%</SPAN>，同比增幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>18.21%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月，我国棉纱进口<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.05</SPAN>万吨，环比减幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.19%</SPAN>，与去年同期基本持平。同月出口<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.22</SPAN>万吨，环比增幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>5.8%</SPAN>，同比缩减<SPAN lang=EN-US>18.11%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">、印度纺织部秘书丽塔?梅农表示，纺织部不会改变本年度<SPAN lang=EN-US>93.5</SPAN>万吨的棉花出口上限。梅农说，目前纺织部并没有计划重审棉花出口限制。印度棉花咨询委员会预测本年度印度棉花产量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>552.5</SPAN>万吨。印度纺织业每月需要消费<SPAN lang=EN-US>39.1-40.8</SPAN>万吨棉花，目前剩余棉花已经不多。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">、<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:chsdate Year="2010" Month="11" Day="23" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>23</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，尽管<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期货连续跌停，但进口棉中国主港报价仍较抗跌，虽然西非棉、中亚棉和巴西棉下跌了<SPAN lang=EN-US>4-7</SPAN>美分，而美棉仅下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.4</SPAN>美分，埃及长绒棉大幅上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>5-15</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>27288</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上一交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>593</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>45</SPAN>张，较前一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>73</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">主产区天气：受较强冷空气影响，未来两天，我国中东部大部地区将出现明显的大风降温天气。西北地区东部、华北、东北地区、黄淮等地降温达<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>～<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>℃，内蒙古中东部部分地区、东北地区中部等地降温幅度可达<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>℃以上。未来三天，新疆北部和西部山区、东北地区中北部等地有小到中雪（雨）或雨夹雪。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">观点总结：央行再度上调准备金，国务院出台<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>项措施稳定物价，政策调控对棉花市场构成调整压力；现货价格维持跌势，。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约探低回升，期价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>24000</SPAN>一线止跌企稳，上方反抽<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线压力，短线有望呈现震荡回升走势。操作上，低位适当短多，关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线压力。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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