<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">盘面走势<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>今日郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约开盘报<SPAN lang=EN-US>26000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，收盘于<SPAN lang=EN-US>25225</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较前一交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1225</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌幅为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.53%</SPAN>；成交量增至<SPAN lang=EN-US>138.51</SPAN>万手，持仓减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>9584</SPAN>手至<SPAN lang=EN-US>20.53</SPAN>万手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">、巴基斯坦轧花者协会周一公布的数据显示，该国截止<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:chsdate Year="2010" Month="11" Day="14" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>14</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>的棉花发运量同比下滑<SPAN lang=EN-US>19.5%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>745</SPAN>万包，因受洪水影响。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">、美国农业部<SPAN lang=EN-US>(USDA)</SPAN>在每周作物生长报告中公布，截至<st1:chsdate Year="2010" Month="11" Day="21" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>21</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>当周，棉花收割率为<SPAN lang=EN-US>86%</SPAN>，之前一周为<SPAN lang=EN-US>78%</SPAN>，去年同期为<SPAN lang=EN-US>69%</SPAN>，五年均值为<SPAN lang=EN-US>73%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">、<st1:chsdate Year="2010" Month="11" Day="22" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>22</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，进口棉中国主港报价大幅下跌，各品种普遍下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.8-8</SPAN>美分，不受期货影响的美国皮马棉依然炙手可热，报价逆势上扬<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.5</SPAN>美分。总体看，美棉、澳棉和印度棉的跌幅较小，这和销售情况较好以及买卖合同的执行有关。据了解，年底前后至明年上半年的签约量虽然很大，但违约风险也最大，而明年下半年的签约情况普遍较好。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>27881</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上一交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>474</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>46</SPAN>张，较前一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>63</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">主产区天气：受新一股较强冷空气影响，未来三天，我国北方大部地区自西向东气温将先后下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>～<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>℃，内蒙古中东部、华北北部、东北等地的部分地区降温幅度可达<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>～<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>℃。新疆北部、东北地区大部有小到中雪（雨）或雨夹雪，其中，内蒙古东北部、黑龙江西北部等地的部分地区有中到大雪；西南地区大部、江南西部等地有小到中雨或阵雨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">观点总结：央行再度上调准备金，国务院出台<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>项措施稳定物价，政策调控对棉花市场构成调整压力；现货价格维持跌势，山东魏桥纺织再次降低皮棉采购价，不少棉花加工企业开始减产甚至停产。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约大幅下跌，期价一度触及跌停，短线进一步考验<SPAN lang=EN-US>25000</SPAN>支撑，延续调整走势。操作上，反弹抛空交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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