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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">股指期货<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">瑞达期货：下跌空间有限，期指多头或胶着<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘指数 收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>道琼斯<SPAN lang=EN-US> 11181.20 173.35 1.57% <BR></SPAN>纳斯达克<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2514.40 38.39 1.55%<BR></SPAN>标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500 1196.69 18.10 1.54%<BR></SPAN>富时<SPAN lang=EN-US>100 5768.71 76.15 1.34% <BR></SPAN>德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX 6832.11 132.04 1.97%<BR></SPAN>法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAC40 3867.97 75.62 1.99%<BR>C0MEX</SPAN>黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1353.9 16.1 1.20%<BR>NYMEX</SPAN>原油<SPAN lang=EN-US> 82.42 1.38 1.70% <BR></SPAN>美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 78.96 -0.29 -0.36%<BR></SPAN>小结：因市场对爱尔兰债务危机状况的担心情绪有所减缓，同时通用汽车重返公开市场的消息进一步提振了市场情绪，周四美国股市收高。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1. </SPAN>证监会要会同公安部、监察部、国资委、预防腐败局等五部门合围内幕交易；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2. </SPAN>加息预期叠加时点效应，银行间拆借利率全面上扬；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3. </SPAN>财政部长谢旭人<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>十二五开征环保税，推进房地产税；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>4. </SPAN>市场传闻央行将一次性大幅加息，明年信贷<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>万亿；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>5. </SPAN>银监会开查房产信托风险，防止向开发商变相输血；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>6. </SPAN>爱尔兰央行行长：预计将获逾<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>亿欧元贷款；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>7. </SPAN>费城<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月制造业指数创近<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>年新高，其中，商业前景指数从<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月份的<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.0</SPAN>上升至<SPAN lang=EN-US>22.5</SPAN>，费城地区制造商预期指数从<SPAN lang=EN-US>41.0</SPAN>上升至<SPAN lang=EN-US>49.0</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>美申领失业救济人数<SPAN lang=EN-US>43.9</SPAN>万，好于预期；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>8. </SPAN>通用汽车成功上市<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>首日收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>34.19</SPAN>美元涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.61%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>9. </SPAN>欧洲央行行长特里谢：欧央行可在撤回流动性措施以前加息；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>10. </SPAN>美联储拟对美<SPAN lang=EN-US>19</SPAN>家最大银行进行第二轮压力测试；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>11.“</SPAN>汇率操纵<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>论老调重弹<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>美报告力促施压人民币；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>12.</SPAN>美元疲软，纽约原油期货收高，金价强势反弹；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>持仓分析：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>周四期指成交量、持仓量较周三均有所下滑，表明期指遭遇<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>八连阴<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>，打击市场人气。在市场仍未明朗之前，部分投资者仍以持观望为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名主力机构多方持单<SPAN lang=EN-US>20729</SPAN>，空方持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>25997</SPAN>，净空持仓（空头<SPAN lang=EN-US>—</SPAN>多头）<SPAN lang=EN-US>5268</SPAN>。其中：前<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>名主力机构净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>8353</SPAN>，净空增减变动（空、多日内增减之差）减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>925</SPAN>手。多空对比，空方持仓维持在高位且持仓集中程度较高，优势明显。值得注意的是，传统期货商浙江永安多巨幅增多仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>967</SPAN>手，表明多方主力昨日采取主动性进攻。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>期指下跌，尤其<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="11" Day="12" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>日暴跌曾造成市场恐慌性下跌，部分主力纷纷减仓以避险或止损。昨日，整个市场虽然人气仍然不足，但主力机构表现相对坚挺，均采取增仓策略。这一持仓动向表明：一方面，市场分歧加剧，争夺更加激烈，这就加剧日后期指震荡；另一方面，主力机构需就当前市场充裕货币和通胀紧缩预期之间博弈进行考量，如前者影响力（动能）超过后者，期指将反弹，反之，则继续下跌；因二者对期指走势影响力难以考量，市场投资者表现为举棋不定，多头以企抄底反弹，空头意犹未尽。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>IF1012</SPAN>合约收盘报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3190.4</SPAN>点，预计<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1012</SPAN>期货合约的区间在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3219-3160</SPAN>之间运行，如上方冲破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3219</SPAN>点可以介入单多，止损下设<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>个点；如下方破点<SPAN lang=EN-US>3160</SPAN>可以小空，止损上设<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>个点。如在区间内窄幅震荡，可以高空低多的策略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>合约名称<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>HS300 3195 3170 3110 3072<BR>IF1011 3191 3171 3120 3087<BR>IF1012 3245 3219 3160 3128<BR>IF1103 3420 3340 3200 3140 <BR>IF1106 3429 3367 3250 3197 <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">油脂<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：原油期价走高及周出口销售数据高于预期潜在支撑<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>，美豆油领涨盘面，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月合约收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>50.92</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息：国际方面，油世界表示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2009/10</SPAN>年度（<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月到次年<SPAN lang=EN-US> 9</SPAN>月）印度进口了<SPAN lang=EN-US>660</SPAN>万吨棕榈油，低于上年度棕榈油进口量<SPAN lang=EN-US>690 </SPAN>万吨。国内方面，本周开始黑龙江将向市场投放<SPAN lang=EN-US>24.6</SPAN>万吨的地<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>方储备大豆，起拍价暂定为<SPAN lang=EN-US>3633</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货：昨日油脂现货价格继续小幅下滑，沿海四级豆油约<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>为<SPAN lang=EN-US>9400-9800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；港口棕榈油报价集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US>8500-9000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>国内四级菜油出厂价格处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>9800-10600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单：豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>5666</SPAN>张；棕榈油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>张；菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>5800</SPAN>张；均无<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>变化。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：连日来美元的反弹，国内商品的调控措施相继<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>出台，对于市场多头信心有所打击，各商品出现了大幅回落，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>油脂也出现过两个跌停行情。就短期情况而言，油脂依然处于<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>震荡调整之中，回落可能依然存在，建议投资者根据自身风险<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>承受能力进行短线震荡操作，稳健投资者可考虑油脂间价差扩<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>大套利。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>由于有迹象表明新制糖年全球第二大产糖国<SPAN lang=EN-US>--</SPAN>印度的食糖产量可能会因雨水偏多、病虫害蔓延降低单产而低于先前的预期，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>本周四<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>糖市原糖期货价格创下了<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>周以来的最大单日涨幅，伦敦糖市白糖期货价格也因此暴涨近<SPAN lang=EN-US>6%</SPAN>。当日<SPAN lang=EN-US>1103</SPAN>期约糖价暴<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>168</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>+6%</SPAN>），收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>28.15</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅，创下了<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="10" Day="7" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>以来最大单日涨幅，盘中<SPAN lang=EN-US>1003</SPAN>期约糖价的涨幅一度达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>9.2%</SPAN>，冲击<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>了<SPAN lang=EN-US>28.90</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅的最高点；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>期约糖价同时暴涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>171</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>+7.2%</SPAN>），以<SPAN lang=EN-US>25.62</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅报收。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、巴西产糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>3,050</SPAN>万吨，较去年同期的产量增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>23.9%<BR>2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月份云南省铁路食糖外运量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>92147</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内现货小幅下调，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7250</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨（旧糖）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1040</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>900</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内主产区天气：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>今天白天到晚上，百色、河池、柳州、桂林、崇左等市阴天大部有小雨，我区其它地区多云到阴天局部有小雨。<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>南宁市：<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>今天白天到晚上，阴到多云，东北风<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-2</SPAN>级，最高气<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="22" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>22℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>，最低气温<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="℃" SourceValue="16" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>16℃</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>技术上，郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约短期有企稳迹象，<SPAN lang=EN-US>6300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨下方有较强的买盘支撑，短期预计将有所反弹，投资者可短线逢低买多<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">3<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期棉收于涨停，因爱尔兰可能获援助的乐观情绪拖累美元下跌，提振棉花市场。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月棉花上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>美分，收报每磅<SPAN lang=EN-US>129.15</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、国务院常务会议要求加强监管，维护市场秩序。整顿主要农产品收购秩序，取缔无照收购、无证加工棉花的行为。同时加大新疆棉外运力度。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 2</SPAN>、<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="11" Day="18" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>18</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>山东魏桥继续下调皮棉收购价格，目前三级<SPAN lang=EN-US>28300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，四级<SPAN lang=EN-US>27900</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 3</SPAN>、<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="11" Day="17" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>17</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>，进口棉中国主港报价全面下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>美分，但美国皮马棉价格上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>美分。据上周举行的美棉采购峰会传来的消息，目前现货需求依然十分活跃，近期美棉出口销售将继续高速增长，棉价大幅回调之后或有望进一步刺激纺织厂购买。从长期看，美棉紧缺的状况无法改变。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>28852</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上一交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>555</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>38</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>66</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>主产区天气：<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月上旬，新疆、黄河流域和长江流域大部棉花采摘完毕，部分处于吐絮采摘后期。预计未来<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>天，影响我国的冷空气活动频繁，但势力不强。未来<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>天，全国大部地区雨雪天气较少，利于秋收作物适时收晒。新疆北部降雪日数较多，部分地区还将有大雪或暴雪。<SPAN lang=EN-US>20-21</SPAN>日苏皖北部将出现小到中雨、局部大雨，河南、山东、广西将有小雨或阵雨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：受美元回落提振，美棉收于涨停；发改委等部委可能出台一揽子控制物价上涨的措施，具体可能包括限价、价格补贴以及严惩囤积居奇等，尤其加大对炒作棉花和玉米行为的惩罚力度<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>政府政策调控对市场构成调整压力；现货价格继续下跌，山东魏桥连续下调皮棉价格；目前期现倒挂对棉花期价有一定支撑。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约震荡回升，期价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>26000</SPAN>一线有所支撑，短线跌势趋缓，有望反弹测试<SPAN lang=EN-US>30000</SPAN>关口压力。操作上，空单离场，依托<SPAN lang=EN-US>27000</SPAN>一线短多。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">谷物：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：受美元疲软及供应紧张支撑，周四<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米期货市场收高。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、中国明年增加玉米进口<SPAN lang=EN-US>550</SPAN>万吨，来自阿根廷；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>FAO</SPAN>：全球<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011/12</SPAN>年度小麦产量上升<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、截至<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="11" Day="5" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>主产区累计收购中晚籼稻<SPAN lang=EN-US>706</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：北方港口行情继续坚挺，由于集港数量不佳，北方港口收购价格目前已经涨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2040</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>近，平舱价格目前<SPAN lang=EN-US>2080-2100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，但很多货主心理已经有提价想法；广东港口主流成交价格<SPAN lang=EN-US>2180-2190</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US> /</SPAN>吨，港内库存在<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>万吨以上，近期船期较为集中；郑州强筋小麦出库价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2320</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持稳；江西九江早稻<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>收购价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，水分<SPAN lang=EN-US>≤13.5%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存方面：玉米仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>990</SPAN>张，郑州强麦仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>5516</SPAN>张，早籼稻仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>6110</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：受加大调控力度预期打压，<SPAN lang=EN-US>c1109</SPAN>合约短期或延续震荡调整，但现货供需失衡进一步加剧，中长期上涨格局没变；政策施压，<SPAN lang=EN-US>WS1105</SPAN>合约重心下移，短期或延续震荡格局；在当前市场情绪不稳定的环境下，游离资金频繁进出早籼稻市场，建议投资者观望或日内短线交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5 <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">粕豆</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">消息面：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">、美湾地区大豆出口升水持坚，因</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CIF</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">驳船报价大幅走高且大豆出口需求稳健。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">、国务院要求加强市场监管，严控物价过度上涨。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">外盘：美豆期价收高，基金平仓盘的压力有所缓解，加上美元疲软使得多头重新回归市场，从走势看，调整的压力逐步减弱。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月主力合约收盘在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1242</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美分，上涨了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">37</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美分。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">国内现货：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">、近期随着期货市场大豆价格的大幅下跌，黑龙江国产大豆收购价格有所松动，农户售粮的积极性提高，目前收购价格集中在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">斤，但大雪使得收购比较困难。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">、豆粕现货价格继续走低，目前价格能在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3350-3400</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，大部分油厂报价稳定，部分油厂下调价格。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3350-3400</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">盘面分析：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">连盘大豆持仓继续下滑，但跌势暂缓，期价盘中大幅震荡。昨天虽然期价跌停，且隔夜外盘走低，但今天开盘开在较高位置，显示出市场心态开始发生变化，虽然盘中期价一度大幅走低，但午后盘面回抽，缩减跌幅。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">连豆粕同样处于减仓中，资金逐步撤离，加上今天的盘面走势，预示着跌势或将逐步结束，但在目前的走势下，仍需保持谨慎态度。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">操作建议：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">外盘基金平仓压力逐步释放，国内盘面同样显示下下部的支撑能力，虽然目前不能说下跌动能已经耗尽，但后期逐步企稳的可能性加大。操作上，前期空单获利平仓，保守投机者多单暂不进入，激进投机者少量介入。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">金属产品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">锌、铝交易提示<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜，伦锌大幅回升，成交量尚未放出，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2200</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.93%</SPAN>；伦铝继续反弹，收复<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2303</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.08%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>内外盘比价情况：锌内外比价最高<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.48</SPAN>，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.17</SPAN>，铝内外比价位于<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.08-7.18</SPAN>之间。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美国首次申请失业救济人数增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>2,000</SPAN>人<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2.</SPAN>俄罗斯<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-10</SPAN>月原铝产量较去年同期增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.3%<BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>17000-17100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，报价与昨日持平，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>665-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>565</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>16950-17050</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，保持平稳，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>715-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>615</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>A00 </SPAN>铝报在<SPAN lang=EN-US>16050-16080</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>70</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>-</SPAN>升水<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>634800</SPAN>吨，较上交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>2725</SPAN>吨，上海交易所锌期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>217635</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>147</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铝库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4305125</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>775</SPAN>吨，上海交易所铝期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>355620</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>8530</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：基本面上，锌铝供求过剩格局未改，现货市场成交清淡。资金面上，沪锌主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净净空单在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>万手以内；沪铝前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名空头持仓再度增加，净空单回到<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.5</SPAN>万手以上。技术显示，市场出现止跌企稳信号。操作建议：沪锌、沪铝空单离场，暂且观望。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> 2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> <BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜黄金大幅上涨，因美元继续下挫刺激金价走高，其中<SPAN lang=EN-US>COMEX12</SPAN>月黄金涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.71%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1362.6.</SPAN>目前金价向上触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线，中期上涨趋势继续存在。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美国<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="11" Day="13" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>13</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>当周初申请失业金人数升至<SPAN lang=EN-US>43.9</SPAN>万人，分析师此前预估为<SPAN lang=EN-US>44</SPAN>万人。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月领先指标成长<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.5%</SPAN>，符合预期，<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月修正为上升<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.5%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="11" Day="18" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False">11<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>月18</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate>SPDR</SPAN>基金黄金持有量减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.56</SPAN>吨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1286.30<BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US>9999</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>292.47</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.37</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，涨幅为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.82 % <BR></SPAN>观点总结：隔夜黄金大幅上涨，因美元继续下跌刺激金价走高。昨日较好的美国房屋数据缓和了市场的恐慌情绪，市场对欧债危机的担忧也有所放缓，美元上涨缺乏动力。在美元无力反弹下，金价有望企稳。另外在全球通胀的预期之下，黄金作为一种抗通胀的商品，其投资需求依旧较高，任何一次的回调均是提供买入的机会，目前金价收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>1350</SPAN>之上，可轻仓介入做多。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="mm" SourceValue="8" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>8mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4580</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持平，<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="mm" SourceValue="20" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US> HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4710</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>(1) </SPAN>国务院出台稳定价格措施<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>必要时实行干预<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) </SPAN>三部委规定土地出让净收益<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>％可用于公租房<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) </SPAN>美股收盘大涨<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>因爱尔兰问题缓解<SPAN lang=EN-US>(4) </SPAN>印度粉矿<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="11" Day="18" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>18</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>167-169</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>40971</SPAN>，减<SPAN lang=EN-US>15425</SPAN>。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>小结：周四<SPAN lang=EN-US>RB1105</SPAN>合约震荡走高，期价回至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4600</SPAN>上方。目前爱尔兰及欧盟各方开始就解决债务问题展开协商，市场对欧洲主权债务问题的担忧情绪略有下降，美元回落支撑商品反弹。操作上建议依托<SPAN lang=EN-US>4600</SPAN>短多。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">4<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">铜<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜伦铜波动相对较大，最低为<SPAN lang=EN-US>8165</SPAN>，而最高触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>8459</SPAN>。期铜上涨主要受美元走软刺激，尾盘涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.88%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>8420.</SPAN>目前铜价处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线之上，中期看涨趋势并未改变。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美国<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="11" Day="13" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>13</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>当周初申请失业金人数升至<SPAN lang=EN-US>43.9</SPAN>万人，分析师此前预估为<SPAN lang=EN-US>44</SPAN>万人。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月领先指标成长<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.5%</SPAN>，符合预期，<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月修正为上升<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.5%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现铜报<SPAN lang=EN-US>61750-62250</SPAN>元，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>250</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>，期货恢复上涨；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.57-7.62</SPAN>，在下跌行情中，比值大幅走低，表明内盘跟跌意愿亦较强。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存：<st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2010" Month="11" Day="18" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>18</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铜库存减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>525</SPAN>吨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>360600</SPAN>吨，注销仓单占库存比为<SPAN lang=EN-US>9.64%</SPAN>，较昨日基本持平，据历史数据显示，注销仓单占比在<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>之下的话，伦铜库存增加的可能性较大，目前的水平表明库存还将有减少的空间。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：隔夜伦铜延续反弹行情，主要受美元走软提振。昨日美国数据较好，使得市场预期美国未来对铜的需求将出现复苏。另外昨日伦铜库存继续减少，虽然目前市场的焦点并不在此，但待市场企稳后，将回归到基本面中。此次期铜以急跌的形势进行回调，预计会有大量买盘介入，昨日的走势表明已有买盘介入。目前铜价有企稳的迹象，建议投资者可轻仓做多，止损收盘于<SPAN lang=EN-US>60000</SPAN>之下。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>LLDPE<BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月国内<SPAN lang=EN-US>PE</SPAN>产量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>98.4</SPAN>万吨，较去年同期（<SPAN lang=EN-US>80.6</SPAN>万吨）增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>17.8</SPAN>万吨，增幅为<SPAN lang=EN-US>22.1%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-10</SPAN>月份累计<SPAN lang=EN-US>863</SPAN>万吨，同比去年（<SPAN lang=EN-US>654.8</SPAN>万吨）增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>208.2</SPAN>万吨，增幅为<SPAN lang=EN-US>31.8%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月国内塑料制品总产量在<SPAN lang=EN-US>526.0</SPAN>万吨，较去年同期增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>17.1%</SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-10</SPAN>月份国内的塑料制品累计总产量在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4547.1</SPAN>万吨，较<SPAN lang=EN-US>2009</SPAN>年同期增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>20.5%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、台塑石化乙烯产量本月将大幅增加。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货市场：今日现货价格继续下调。扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>11200</SPAN>元，与上一交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>800</SPAN>元。市场观望气氛浓重，交投清淡。亚洲乙烯走势不一，东北亚持平，报<SPAN lang=EN-US>980——982</SPAN>美元，东南亚报<SPAN lang=EN-US>958——950</SPAN>美元，略有提升，气氛稍好。终端用户库存充裕，没有购买欲望。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>22701</SPAN>张，较昨日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：今日连塑<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约探低回升，盘中震荡加剧，成交量放大，收盘大幅上涨。基本面上，货币政策再度收紧，加息预期压制市场信心，亚洲乙烯有所企稳，对亚洲乙烯价格企稳，对连塑有一定支撑，农地膜季节性需求炒作也对行情有所提振。连塑探低回升，下方受到<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日线支撑，出现技术性反弹，短线测试上方均线压力。操作上，短线以日内交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2 PVC<BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、云南盐化<SPAN lang=EN-US>13</SPAN>万吨电石法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>装置上周末起停车检修，目前仍未恢复开车，货源供老单为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月份中国大陆<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>纯粉产量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>95.19</SPAN>万吨，较上月环比增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.78</SPAN>万吨，约为<SPAN lang=EN-US>5.29%</SPAN>。较去年同比增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.8%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-10</SPAN>月份<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>粉累计产量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>929.34</SPAN>万吨，同比增幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>11.6%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货市场：今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货报价平稳，华东地区乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8950</SPAN>元，部分区域存在看涨气氛，报盘方面暂无明显波动，电石法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8650</SPAN>元，较上一交易日持平。市场报价较少。西北电石企业陆续限产，西北电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>4050</SPAN>元，持平，华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>4450</SPAN>元，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1423</SPAN>张，较昨日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>106</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC1105</SPAN>合约震荡收高，持仓小幅减少。基本面上，欧洲主权债务危机加之亚洲加息，国际油价重挫<SPAN lang=EN-US>3%</SPAN>而跌至半个月来最低点；国内货币政策进一步收紧，加息预期令市场抛压加剧，西北电石企业陆续限产，电石供应偏紧对<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>成本有所支撑。短期<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>在<SPAN lang=EN-US>8300</SPAN>关口获得支撑，预计将围绕<SPAN lang=EN-US>8500</SPAN>一线波动，呈现震荡走势。操作上，投资者以日内交易为宜。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR>3 PTA<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油收涨，受市场对爱尔兰债务问题的忧虑缓和，美元出现回落提振。<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 12</SPAN>月原油期货上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.41</SPAN>美元，报收<SPAN lang=EN-US>81.85</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、江阴汉邦石化产能<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年的<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>新装置计划投料试车，公司已在现货市场采购原料对二甲苯<SPAN lang=EN-US>3-5</SPAN>万吨。该装置产品主要供应江阴澄星<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年的瓶片装置生产。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、台湾<SPAN lang=EN-US>FCFC</SPAN>产能<SPAN lang=EN-US>70</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年的<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>装置，经为期<SPAN lang=EN-US>14</SPAN>天的停车检修，按计划于周一开车重启，公司另一套产能<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年的<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>装置运行正常。<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>、江浙地区涤纶长丝市场早盘报价多稳，部分工厂有涨有跌，涨跌幅度均在<SPAN lang=EN-US>200-500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨不等，市场心态较前稍有企稳迹象。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">现货价格：<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>内盘气氛安静，商谈稀少。部分报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9700</SPAN>元左右，但买家意向普遍不高，一单现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>9500</SPAN>元成交，另一单现货在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9480</SPAN>元价位成交<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>外盘台产现货部分报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1170-1175</SPAN>美元，个别保税货有报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1180</SPAN>美元，船货现货成交商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1160-1170</SPAN>美元附近展开，韩产现货在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1150</SPAN>美元或偏内展开，较低一单现货在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1140</SPAN>美元成交。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>22887</SPAN>张，较前一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>44</SPAN>张，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>549</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">观点总结：国内政策紧缩预期对市场影响有所弱化，股市反弹带动商品市场止跌企稳，期现价差缩窄对<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>期价有所支撑；国内现货呈现僵持，持货商主动报盘较少，买家多数缩手观望，交投气氛清淡。江浙地区主流工厂涤丝重心多数稳定，有光切片市场维持观望，下游买盘仍谨慎观望为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA1105</SPAN>合约宽幅震荡，期价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9600</SPAN>一线有所支撑，短线调整行情趋缓，预计以<SPAN lang=EN-US>9500-11000</SPAN>区间走势为主。操作上，低位适当短多，区间交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">燃料油<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">国际市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">纽约时间<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>18</SPAN>日，<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 12</SPAN>月原油合约收高<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.41</SPAN>美元，或<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.8%</SPAN>，报每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>81.85</SPAN>美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>布兰特原油期货合约上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.82</SPAN>美元至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>85.10</SPAN>美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">消息新闻：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">据外电报道，白俄罗斯政府经济部<SPAN lang=EN-US>18</SPAN>日称，白俄罗斯将从<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日起把石油过境关税提高<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.5%</SPAN>，将是每吨石油产品每<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>公里<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.64</SPAN>美元亚洲燃料油<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>/1</SPAN>月跨月价差转至正价差<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>裂解价差反弹<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">上期所库存<SPAN lang=EN-US>371600</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">现货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">华南市场，受原油价格走低以及市场需求持续走疲的拖累，当地市场价格跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>50-100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。华东市场，今日混调高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>180cst</SPAN>主流成交价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4680-4730</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。油浆市场，当地主流价格<SPAN lang=EN-US>3900-4000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">观点总结：：受国际油价反弹以及现货抗跌性支撑，沪燃<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线支撑有效，中期持逢低买入思路。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">橡胶<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">国际市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">爱尔兰债务危机有望获救，隔夜<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>18</SPAN>日，<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 12</SPAN>月原油合约收高<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.41</SPAN>美元，或<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.8%</SPAN>，报每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>81.85</SPAN>美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">TOCOM</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">橡胶期货<SPAN lang=EN-US>18</SPAN>日收高，<SPAN lang=EN-US>TOCOM 4</SPAN>月橡胶期货收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>362.5</SPAN>日圆<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>千克，今早开盘至<SPAN lang=EN-US>370</SPAN>上方。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">期货方面<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">上期所库存<SPAN lang=EN-US>47010</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">现货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">上海国产全乳胶报价全面下滑至<SPAN lang=EN-US>31500-31800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；国储<SPAN lang=EN-US>3#</SPAN>烟片胶<SPAN lang=EN-US>33200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">观点总结：沪胶站稳第二档支撑，若今日仍站稳<SPAN lang=EN-US>33000</SPAN>沿线，中期多单可逐步买入操作，短线仍以日内为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times Ne
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