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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">股指期货<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">瑞达期货：期现涨跌不一，凸显市场谨慎<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘指数 收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>道琼斯<SPAN lang=EN-US> 11202.00 9.39 0.08% <BR></SPAN>纳斯达克<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2513.82 -4.39 -0.17%<BR></SPAN>标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500 1197.75 -1.46 -0.12%<BR></SPAN>富时<SPAN lang=EN-US>100 5820.41 23.54 0.41% <BR></SPAN>德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX 6790.17 55.56 0.82%<BR></SPAN>法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAC40 3864.24 33.12 0.86%<BR>C0MEX</SPAN>黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1358.10 -10.40 -0.76%<BR>NYMEX</SPAN>原油<SPAN lang=EN-US> 84.48 -0.380 -0.45% <BR></SPAN>美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 78.70 0.55 0.70%<BR></SPAN>小结：随着国债价格大幅下跌，周一美国股市收盘涨跌不一。但美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月零售业销售收入增幅超出预期的消息，曾推动美股在大多数交易时间内攀升。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1. </SPAN>多部委酝酿应对高物价，或出台<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>组合拳<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>控制价格过快上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2.</SPAN>央行大力收紧流动性硬撼热钱，紧缩政策或再加强；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3. </SPAN>四大行并未暂停房地产开发贷款<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>但已经明显收紧；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>4. </SPAN>国家信息中心预计第四季度<SPAN lang=EN-US>GDP</SPAN>增<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.7%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>5. </SPAN>广州市<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月房价同比上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>49.6%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>6. </SPAN>三大行再融资近期收官：中国银行<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>亿，建行<SPAN lang=EN-US>22.39</SPAN>亿，工行约<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>亿；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>7. </SPAN>证监会将适时推出转融通业务<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>8. </SPAN>基金发行数稳超去年，年内还可输血<SPAN lang=EN-US>600</SPAN>亿；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>9. </SPAN>清理地方融资平台，财政部再度出招：对存量债务<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>逐包打开、逐笔核对、重新评估、整改保全<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>。对于还款来源主要依靠财政性资金的公益性项目，监管机构明确要求商业银行将不得再继续通过平台贷款。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>10.</SPAN>创业板总市值已达<SPAN lang=EN-US>6977.3</SPAN>亿元，创开板以来的新高；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>11.APEC</SPAN>峰会远景：贸易自由化，就避免竞争性货币贬值达成一致；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>12. </SPAN>欧盟成员敦促爱尔兰接受援助缓解危机；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>13. </SPAN>数据显示：欧元区<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月出口额连续第二个月环比增长；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>14. </SPAN>数据显示：<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月纽约联储制造业指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>-11.10</SPAN>，制造业的状况显著恶化；<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月零售业销售额环比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.20%</SPAN>，好于预期。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>持仓分析：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名主力机构多方持单<SPAN lang=EN-US>17482</SPAN>，空方持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>22614</SPAN>，净空持仓（空头<SPAN lang=EN-US>—</SPAN>多头）<SPAN lang=EN-US>5132</SPAN>。其中：前<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>名主力机构净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>7187</SPAN>，净空增减变动（空、多日内增减之差）减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>326</SPAN>手。主力持仓表明：空方持仓维持在高位且持仓集中程度较高，空头优势明显。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>因主力合约临近到期，且基差大幅缩减，在紧缩货币政策预期前景仍不完全明朗的情况下，投资者对市场短期走势存在担心，纷纷减仓以避险。而次月合约基差处在相对高位，套利助推当月合约向下月合约移仓操作，使得本次移仓换月早于前期。当然，减持当月合约增仓下月合约也表明市场对近期走势的担忧和对中长期看好走势肯定。上周五期指恐慌性暴跌，市场大伤元气，经过昨日调整，人气重新开始聚敛。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>IF1011</SPAN>合约收盘报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3297</SPAN>点，预计<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1011</SPAN>期货合约的区间在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3328-3295</SPAN>之间运行，如上方冲破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3328</SPAN>点可以介入单多，止损下设<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>个点；如下方破点<SPAN lang=EN-US>3295</SPAN>可以小空，止损上设<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>个点。如在区间内窄幅震荡，可以高空低多的策略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>合约名称<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>HS300 3370 3340 3265 3210<BR>IF1011 3360 3328 3295 3230<BR>IF1012 3415 3385 3322 3290<BR>IF1103 3475 3450 3390 3355<BR>IF1106 3565 3520 3415 3355<BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期棉小幅收涨，受棉纺厂买盘提振。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月棉花上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.02</SPAN>美分，收报每磅<SPAN lang=EN-US>134.2</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、美国农业部公布的棉花出口销售报告显示，截至<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>日当周，美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010-11</SPAN>年度棉花净销售<SPAN lang=EN-US>432,200</SPAN>包；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011-12</SPAN>年度棉花净销售<SPAN lang=EN-US>83,100</SPAN>包。当周美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010-11</SPAN>年度棉花出口装船<SPAN lang=EN-US>300,000</SPAN>包。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>日，进口棉中国主港报价继续下跌，除澳棉和美国皮马棉上涨之外，其他品种普遍下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.4-1.9</SPAN>美分。目前的外棉供应状况是，港口现货很少，到港的多是前期订货，多数外商明年上半年的报盘已全部订完，只有个别棉商还有远期报价。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>30986</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上一交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>295</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>39</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>48</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>主产区天气：<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月上旬，新疆、黄河流域和长江流域大部棉花采摘完毕，部分处于吐絮采摘后期。预计未来<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>天，影响我国的冷空气活动频繁，但势力不强；大部分地区气温较常年同期偏高<SPAN lang=EN-US>1℃</SPAN>左右，部分地区气温偏高<SPAN lang=EN-US>2-3℃</SPAN>。未来<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>天，全国大部地区雨雪天气较少，利于秋收作物适时收晒。新疆北部降雪日数较多，部分地区还将有大雪或暴雪。<SPAN lang=EN-US>20-21</SPAN>日苏皖北部将出现小到中雨、局部大雨，河南、山东、广西将有小雨或阵雨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：受棉纺厂买盘提振，美棉小幅回升，短期呈现高位调整走势；发改委等七部门要求严厉查处哄抬棉价行为，央行上调存款准备金率，政策调控对市场构成调整压力，市场的获利了结意愿和恐高情绪加剧市场抛盘；现货价格小幅下跌，期现倒挂可能限制期棉调整空间。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约开盘快速封于跌停，盘中有所回升，短线反弹回抽上方均线压力，延续高位调整格局。操作上，依托<SPAN lang=EN-US>30000</SPAN>关口短空。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">油脂<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：受粕油套利及出口需求放缓担忧打压收低，但国际植物油价格企稳及新增出口销售的消息限制其跌幅，美豆油小幅下跌，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月合约收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>52.47</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅；因出口数据强劲，盖过对中国升息的担忧，<SPAN lang=EN-US>BMD</SPAN>毛棕榈油期货周一反弹，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月合约上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>17</SPAN>令吉至<SPAN lang=EN-US>3370</SPAN>令吉<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息：国际方面，马来西亚船货调查机构<SPAN lang=EN-US>ITS</SPAN>周一称，马来西亚<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-15</SPAN>日出口棕榈油<SPAN lang=EN-US>747431</SPAN>吨，环比增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>27%</SPAN>。国内方面，中国农业部长韩长赋对阿根廷的访问取得了积极成果，中阿两国将积极推动大豆产品的直接贸易，通过减少中间环节降低产品价格。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单：豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>5566</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1263</SPAN>张；棕榈油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>张；菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>5800</SPAN>张；均无变化。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：整体商品市场在周五暴跌之后，品种走势出现了一定程度的分化，化工品种与谷物类走出了截然不同的冰火两重天。就目前的情况而言，油脂的基本面情况没有太大改变，也就不存在深跌的影响，牛市基础依然较好，前期多单根据成本谨慎处理，空单注意止赢，不建议过分看空。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">谷物：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：受终端用户买盘支撑，周一<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米期货市场强劲反弹，投资者对中国的进口需求持乐观预期。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、本周二临储玉米投放量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>30.0831</SPAN>万吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、小麦价格坚挺，提振欧盟小麦种植规模；<SPAN lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN>、泰国大米出口价格上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>3-5%</SPAN>，因出口需求增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>-USDA</SPAN>参赞。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：由于国内玉米现货基本面的坚挺，北方港口玉米价格依旧呈现坚挺态势，北方港口玉米平<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>舱价基本在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2070-2090</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，广东港口优质玉米成交价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，由于近一周多时间东北大部分地<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>区连续出现降雨雪天气，北方港口玉米到货量略有下降；郑州强筋小麦出库价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2320</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持稳；江西九江<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>早稻收购价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，水分<SPAN lang=EN-US>≤13.5%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存方面：玉米仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>990</SPAN>张，郑州强麦仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>5516</SPAN>张，早籼稻仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>6110</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：<SPAN lang=EN-US>c1109</SPAN>合约站上均线系统，后市向上测试前期高点<SPAN lang=EN-US>2440</SPAN>一线，目前调控压力犹存，短期保持<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>震荡偏强思路；<SPAN lang=EN-US>WS1105</SPAN>合约下方<SPAN lang=EN-US>2560-2580</SPAN>区间存在一定的支撑，而上方<SPAN lang=EN-US>2710-2750</SPAN>区间压力较大，短期或维持宽幅震荡态势；资金再次入市，今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>ER1105</SPAN>合约或延续强势，但在当前市场调整氛围较浓的环境下，不建议过分追高。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">粕豆<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、中国驻阿根廷大使曾钢<SPAN lang=EN-US>13</SPAN>日表示，中中阿两国将积极推动大豆产品的直接贸易，通过减少中间环节降低产品价格。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>日消息，阿根廷农业部周五称，由于土壤水分不足，阿根廷上周<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010/11</SPAN>年大豆播种进程放缓，而提高播种率则需要增加降雨。。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：周一<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>美豆上涨，自周五的跌势中反弹，市场消化加息传言后重归基本面，周五的下跌可认为是对持续上涨的超买指标的修正。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>近期国内盘面走势较为独立，大量的资金云集农产品，使得期价大幅震荡，操作上需根据变化把握好内外节奏。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、国产大豆价格坚挺，市场贸易商和油厂采购积极，但是农户看涨后市的预期较浓，惜售的心态较重，目前市场上收购价格能在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.9-1.94</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>斤。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、豆粕现货价格稳中有跌，目前价格能在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3550</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，部分油厂报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨之下。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>盘面分析：今天连盘豆类震荡走软，延续了上个交易日的下跌走势，市场继续释放调整压力，但经历了连续的走低后，期价短期有望回稳。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>操作建议：基于后市仍旧看多思路，建议前期趋势多单继续持有，中线大豆关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>4430</SPAN>处的支撑位，豆粕关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>3300</SPAN>处的支撑作用；短线不宜再做空。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">白糖外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">受全球第二大产糖国称就是否放开食糖出口市场将采取谨慎态度的刺激，本周一<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>糖食原糖期货价格全线反弹，近期合约的丈夫更就近<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅。当日<SPAN lang=EN-US>1103</SPAN>期约糖价暴涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>82</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>+3.1%</SPAN>），收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>27.03</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅，<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>期约糖价同时暴涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>61</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>+2.6%</SPAN>），以<SPAN lang=EN-US>24.50</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅报收。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、印度：将陆续出口食糖以防止过度冲击市场<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、泰国蔗农将得到<SPAN lang=EN-US>11%</SPAN>的蔗款补贴<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">国内现货大幅下调，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨（新糖）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1814</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>640</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">国内主产区天气：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">今天白天到晚上，百色、河池两市部分地区阴天有小雨，我区其它地区多云间阴天，局部有分散小雨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>南宁市：今天白天到晚上，多云到阴，东北风<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-2</SPAN>级，最高气 温<SPAN lang=EN-US>24</SPAN>℃，最低气温<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>℃。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">技术上，郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约受外盘重挫而继续大幅下挫，前期高位多头止损盘压力下或将继续下调，关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>6100</SPAN>——<SPAN lang=EN-US>6300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨区 间支撑情况。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">金属产品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">锌、铝交易提示<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜，伦锌低位震荡，跌势放缓，日线收长腿十字阴星，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2335</SPAN>美元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.64%</SPAN>；伦铝探低回升，日线收锤头阳线，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2405</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.04%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>内外盘比价情况：锌内外比价最高<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.26</SPAN>，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.87</SPAN>，铝内外比价位于<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.98-7.13</SPAN>之间。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月零售额创<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月以来最大增幅<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2.</SPAN>欧元区<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月贸易顺差<SPAN lang=EN-US>29</SPAN>亿欧元<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>18350-18450</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>460-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>360</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>18300-18400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>510-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>410</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>A00 </SPAN>铝报在<SPAN lang=EN-US>16280-16320</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>-</SPAN>升水<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>631425</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>450</SPAN>吨，上海交易所锌期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>216424</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>2355</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铝库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4252125</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>425</SPAN>吨，上海交易所铝期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>370135</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>457</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：消息面上，因<SPAN lang=EN-US>CPI</SPAN>创出<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>个月新高，市场加息传闻再起，商品市场承压暴跌。资金面上，沪锌主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净持仓量下降，净空单<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.6</SPAN>万手左右；沪铝前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名空头持仓减仓较多，净空单回到<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>万手以内。技术显示，市场展开回调，短线料将维持跌势。操作建议：沪锌获利空单可逐步获利了结；沪铝空单获利离场。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜黄金继续下跌，因美元走强打压，其中伦金跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.6%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1360.45.</SPAN>目前处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>日均线与<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>日均线之间运行，预计回调还将继续。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月零售销售月率上升<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.2%</SPAN>，分析师预估为上升<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.7%</SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月修正为增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.7%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>美国纽约联储<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月制造业指数为<SPAN lang=EN-US>-11.14</SPAN>，低于<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>15.73.<BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US>9999</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>295.2</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.79</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，跌幅为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.27 % <BR></SPAN>观点总结：隔夜黄金继续下跌，因美元走强打压。昨日美国经济数据再次对美元指数构成支撑，美元反弹行情还将延续。在美元上涨的背景下，金价难以大幅走高，有望继续弱势回调。不过在全球通胀的预期之下，黄金作为一种抗通胀的商品，其投资需求依旧较高，任何一次的回调均是提供买入的机会，目前金价已跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>1380</SPAN>的位置，下方会测试<SPAN lang=EN-US>1350</SPAN>，若有企稳可继续买入。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>8mm Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4580</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4720</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>(1) </SPAN>铁矿石明年价格涨势基本确认<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>分析称涨幅存分歧<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) 10</SPAN>月汽车库存增至<SPAN lang=EN-US>54.21</SPAN>万<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>还处于正常水平<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) 1-10</SPAN>月北京市房地产市场运行情况<SPAN lang=EN-US>(4) </SPAN>印度粉矿<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>日<SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>167-169</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>56396</SPAN>，增<SPAN lang=EN-US>4145</SPAN>。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>小结：周一<SPAN lang=EN-US>RB1105</SPAN>合约低开高走，<SPAN lang=EN-US>4600</SPAN>一线有明显支撑，目前原材料价格继续走高，钢材成本支撑起作用，但近期美元因欧债危机持续走高，操作上建议钢市多空交杂震荡思维，日内交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铜<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜伦铜触底反弹，因低位有买盘介入，其最低触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>8460</SPAN>，尾盘涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.5%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>8618.</SPAN>目前铜价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日均线与<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线之间运行。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月零售销售月率上升<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.2%</SPAN>，分析师预估为上升<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.7%</SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月修正为增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.7%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>美国纽约联储<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月制造业指数为<SPAN lang=EN-US>-11.14</SPAN>，低于<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>15.73.<BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现铜报<SPAN lang=EN-US>65250-65500</SPAN>元，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1050</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，现货平水铜贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>，贴水小幅收窄，表明现货跟跌意愿强；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.60-7.68</SPAN>，比价走低表明内盘较弱<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存：<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>日<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铜库存减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>75</SPAN>吨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>362700</SPAN>吨，注销仓单占库存比为<SPAN lang=EN-US>9.28%</SPAN>，较昨日小幅减少，据历史数据显示，注销仓单占比在<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>之下的话，伦铜库存增加的可能性较大，目前的水平表明库存还将有减少的空间。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：隔夜伦铜触底反弹，尾盘收长腿十字星。近期美元反弹给铜价造成压力。但由于伦铜库存持续减少，并且后期依旧存在下跌空间，该利多因素使得期铜回调空间有限。在全球通胀的背景下，商品依旧为投资所选，因此此番下跌依旧解读为暂时的回调而非趋势拐头向下。因此建议投资者不可看太空。操作上关注伦铜<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线的支撑，若有企稳可再次介入做多。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">燃料油<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>日，最新经济数据显示美国复苏形势喜忧参半，纽约商业交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>(NYMEX)</SPAN>原油期货盘中振荡，收盘价与上周五基本持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>十二月原油期货结算价跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.02</SPAN>美元，至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>84.86</SPAN>美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>布伦特原油期货涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.36</SPAN>美元，至<SPAN lang=EN-US>86.70</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.4%.<BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>费萨尔：沙特将努力阻止油价急剧上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>印尼国油明年石油产量计划提高<SPAN lang=EN-US>5.3%<BR></SPAN>期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>上期所仓单<SPAN lang=EN-US>367600</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>8100</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>上海期货交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>FU1103</SPAN>成交及持仓前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>总排名，持买单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>28458</SPAN>手，增持<SPAN lang=EN-US>1876</SPAN>手；持卖单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>47247</SPAN>手，增持<SPAN lang=EN-US>4597</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>华南船用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>交易过驳价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4560-4570</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；库提价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4570-4580</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价持平，国产锅炉用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>交易价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4400-4450</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价持平；华东船用混调高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4700-4750</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，锅炉用混调高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：期市场气氛略微偏空，但是对于国际油品的供需方面仍有支撑，沪燃主力合约<SPAN lang=EN-US>1103</SPAN>短期或将在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4900-5000</SPAN>点区间内收敛修正，中期仍以逢低吸纳为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR><BR>2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>PTA<BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油小幅收低，因数据显示美国经济复苏迟滞。<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 12</SPAN>月原油期货下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.02</SPAN>美元，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>84.86</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、宁波三菱产能<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年的<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>装置运行基本正常，由于前期装置运行不稳，厂家货源稀少，产品主供合约用户为主，暂无现货销售。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、远东石化两套产能分别为<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年的<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>装置，因设备故障装置开工负荷目前维持在<SPAN lang=EN-US>50%</SPAN>左右。<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>、江浙地区涤纶长丝市场整体仍处于调整过程中，不过偏高报价回调幅度较大在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1000-1500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，周末已调整厂家，补跌幅度相应减少在<SPAN lang=EN-US>500-600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，目前市场整体成交气氛清淡，部分厂家实际成交多有优惠，但下游采购持观望态度。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货价格：华东<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场平淡观望，现货市场主动报盘稀少，买卖双方观望气氛浓厚，商谈重心在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9300-9350</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，市场实盘稀少。亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场平淡观望，市场报盘稀少，买方持观望态度，少量台产货商谈重心在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1140-1150</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，市场实盘清淡。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>22835</SPAN>张，较前一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>800</SPAN>张，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>509</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：国内政策紧缩预期加强令商品市场继续承压调整，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>延续回调走势；国内现货市场报价重心下移，市场实盘稀少。聚酯半光切片<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月份合同报价下调，下游采购意向下降。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA1105</SPAN>合约大幅下跌，盘中触及跌停后有所回升，下方考验<SPAN lang=EN-US>9600-9800</SPAN>一线支撑，短线有望延续调整走势。操作上，依托<SPAN lang=EN-US>10000</SPAN>关口适当短空。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><BR>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">天然橡胶<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>日，最新经济数据显示美国复苏形势喜忧参半，纽约商业交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>(NYMEX)</SPAN>原油期货盘中振荡，收盘价与上周五基本持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>十二月原油期货结算价跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.02</SPAN>美元，至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>84.86</SPAN>美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>TOCOM</SPAN>橡胶期货隔夜报收<SPAN lang=EN-US>353.7</SPAN>日圆<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>千克，较上一交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.3.</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月天然橡胶进口环比增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>13.2%<BR></SPAN>马来西亚<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月天然橡胶产量同比降<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.4%<BR></SPAN>期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>上期所仓单<SPAN lang=EN-US>45995</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>590</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>上海期货交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>RU1105</SPAN>成交及持仓前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>总排名，持买单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>44937</SPAN>手，增持<SPAN lang=EN-US>1229</SPAN>手；持卖单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>37508</SPAN>手，减持<SPAN lang=EN-US>15942</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>上海市场贸易商报价稀少，云南国营全乳胶报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>33500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，海南国营全乳胶报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>32900-33300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；烟片暂无报价；越南<SPAN lang=EN-US>3L</SPAN>胶<SPAN lang=EN-US>17</SPAN>税报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>33000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。现货报价混乱，高低价差区间较大。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：天然橡胶急速下跌过程中，不少空头获利了结，盘中不乏多单衔接上接力棒，在<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月底全面落叶期来临之际，对于中期供应偏紧忧虑仍在，仅以投资者短期以日内交易为主，中期关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>33600</SPAN>与<SPAN lang=EN-US>32100</SPAN>区间内两档支撑力度，技术性调整不易盲目，空单获利了结。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">连塑<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月中国和日本乙烯产量均大幅增长；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、中国<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月塑料制品出口量逾<SPAN lang=EN-US>58</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：今日现货价格平稳。扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>12300</SPAN>元，与上一交易日持平。市场观望气氛浓重，交投清淡。亚洲乙烯价格也保持平稳，东北亚报<SPAN lang=EN-US>978</SPAN>——<SPAN lang=EN-US>980</SPAN>美元，东南亚报<SPAN lang=EN-US>953</SPAN>——<SPAN lang=EN-US>955</SPAN>美元，均与上一交易日持平。终端用户库存充裕，没有购买欲望。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>26605</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>864</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：今日连塑继续弱势跌停，下方初步有抄底盘进入，显示市场人气已有所分化。基本面上，货币政策再度收紧，加息预期不断在一定程度上打压了市场做多信心，亚洲乙烯弱势运行又加重市场担忧，预计连塑短期内仍有回落要求，但下行力度将有所减缓，且经连续大幅回落，短线也存在一定的反弹要求。操作上，投资者手中空单可逢低分批减持，落袋为安。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">5<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>PVC<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、统计局：近期石油、化工品出厂价走高；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、北元化工百万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>项目产品下线。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货价走势不一，华东地区乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8950</SPAN>元，继续保持平稳，电石法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8850</SPAN>元，较上一交易日回落<SPAN lang=EN-US>200</SPAN>元。市场交投一般。电石价格小幅走高。西北电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3850</SPAN>元，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元，华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>4180</SPAN>元，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>80</SPAN>元，成交一般。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1801</SPAN>张，与上一交易日持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>反弹无力，持仓大幅回落，显示上方仍有一定的压力。基本面上，显示货币政策进一步收紧，加息预期不断在一定程度上打压了市场的做多信心，需求减弱也对<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>的反弹形成压力。预计短期<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>仍有回落的要求，但下跌力度将有所减弱。且经过前期连续回落，短线也有一定的反弹要求，操作上，投资者手中空单可逢低分批减持，落袋为安。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">『免责声明：期市瞬息万变，盘中突发消息也将影响走势突变，投资人应盘中实时应
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