<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">股指期货<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">瑞达期货：股指大跌难改中期向好<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>道琼斯指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 11192.60 -90.52 -0.80% <BR></SPAN>纳斯达克指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2518.21 -37.31 -1.46% <BR></SPAN>标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500</SPAN>指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1199.21 -14.33 -1.18%<BR></SPAN>富时<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 5796.87 -18.36 -0.32% <BR></SPAN>德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX</SPAN>指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 6734.61 11.20 0.17%<BR></SPAN>法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAC40</SPAN>指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3831.12 -36.23 -0.94%<BR>C0MEX</SPAN>黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1368.30 -35.00 -2.49%<BR>NYMEX</SPAN>原油<SPAN lang=EN-US> 84.73 -3.08 -3.51%<BR></SPAN>美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 78.15 -0.16 -0.20%<BR></SPAN>小结：因担心中国收紧信贷以控制通货膨胀的影响，欧美主要股指下挫，大宗商品期货大幅回落。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1. G20</SPAN>拒绝支持美国施压人民币；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2. </SPAN>胡锦涛出席<SPAN lang=EN-US>APEC</SPAN>：共同发展共享繁荣，并稳步推进人民币汇率形成机制改革；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3. </SPAN>央行副行长马德伦：<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>池子<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>指货币政策组合，包括对流入外汇的管理、准备金率调整、公开市场对冲操作等货币政策各项工具；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>4</SPAN>．央行二次加息箭在弦上，货币政策名义宽松实转紧缩；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>5</SPAN>．传<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>建议客户卖出手上获利的全部中国股票<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>高盛报告引发股指、期指暴跌；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>6. G20</SPAN>峰会：实施市场决定型汇率制度，避免竞争性货币贬值；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>7. </SPAN>欧盟统计局<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>日数据显示：欧元区经济今年第三季度环比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.4%</SPAN>，经济增速大幅放缓。法国：第三季度环比经济增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.4%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>德国：第三季度环比经济继续保持增<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.7%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>8. </SPAN>爱尔兰国债创<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月来最高涨幅，德意志银行称欧元终将克服欧债危机；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>9. </SPAN>路透社调查报告：美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月消费者信心指数的初值环比增至<SPAN lang=EN-US>69.3</SPAN>，超出市场预期；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>10. </SPAN>国际油价大幅回落，纽约市场黄金期货价格<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>日大跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.7%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>持仓分析：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名主力机构多方持单<SPAN lang=EN-US>15992</SPAN>，空方持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>20186</SPAN>，净空持仓（空头<SPAN lang=EN-US>—</SPAN>多头）<SPAN lang=EN-US>4194</SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月合约与主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月合约提前完成移仓换月操作。其中：前<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>名主力机构多方持单<SPAN lang=EN-US>6491</SPAN>，减单<SPAN lang=EN-US>541</SPAN>；空方持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>13142</SPAN>，增仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>86</SPAN>，净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>6651</SPAN>，净空增减变动（空、多日内增减之差）增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>627</SPAN>手。主力持仓表明：空方持仓维持在高位且持仓集中程度较高，空头优势明显。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>上周五期指出现恐慌性的暴跌，主力合约创下上市以来最大跌幅，远月合约甚至触及跌停板。但隔夜持仓量并未因期指暴跌也出现异常变动，多空双方基本上是小幅增减，前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名多空双方均在增仓，表明双方分歧加剧。多方仍然看好未来中长期市场走势，采取逢低建仓策略；在期现基差逐步缩小，空方做空股指套利或套保的能量在减弱。上周五多方部分主力机构减仓主要是砍仓止损，而空方减仓多是平仓盈利。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>IF1011</SPAN>合约收盘报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3287</SPAN>点，预计<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1011</SPAN>期货合约的区间在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3445-3190</SPAN>之间运行，如上方冲破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3445</SPAN>点可以介入单多，止损下设<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>个点；如下方破点<SPAN lang=EN-US>3190</SPAN>可以小空，止损上设<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>个点。如在区间内窄幅震荡，可以高空低多的策略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>合约名称<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>HS300 3570 3430 3220 3145<BR>IF1011 3600 3445 3190 3095<BR>IF1012 3660 3500 3245 3145<BR>IF1103 3795 3595 3265 3135<BR>IF1106 3840 3645 3335 3225<BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期棉下挫，触发跌停限制，因担忧中国升息，加上<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>大幅上调交易保证金的影响，令期棉终止四个月的涨势。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月棉花下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>美分，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>134.18</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、国家统计局统计，<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月份我国工业品出厂价格涨幅有所扩大<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>同比上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>5.0%</SPAN>，涨幅比<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月份扩大<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.7</SPAN>个百分点。其中衣着类上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.8%</SPAN>，涨幅与<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1-10</SPAN>月份，工业品出厂价格上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>5.5%</SPAN>，涨幅与<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-9</SPAN>月份持平。其中衣着类上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.8%</SPAN>，涨幅与<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-9</SPAN>月份持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 2</SPAN>、印度棉花收购进度在排灯节后迅速恢复，日收购量达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>万包（<SPAN lang=EN-US>27200</SPAN>吨）。印度国内棉价持续上涨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>Shankar-6</SPAN>轧花厂提货价<SPAN lang=EN-US>46500-47000</SPAN>卢比<SPAN lang=EN-US>/candy</SPAN>，折合<SPAN lang=EN-US>133</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅。印度棉花装运已经从<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日正式开始实施，棉商必须在装运后的<SPAN lang=EN-US>21</SPAN>天内提交装运证明。目前官方尚未公布装运数据。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>31281</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上一交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>21</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>39</SPAN>张，较前一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>45</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>主产区天气：未来三天，西北地区东部、华北大部、东北大部、内蒙古大部、黄淮、江淮、江汉及西南地区东部等地有<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>～<SPAN lang=EN-US>8℃</SPAN>降温，局地可达<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>～<SPAN lang=EN-US>12℃</SPAN>以上。内蒙古中东部、华北北部、东北地区大部有小到中（雨）雪或雨夹雪；西南地区大部、华南沿海等地多阴雨天气。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：受中国货币紧缩预期及<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>大幅上调交易保证金打压，美棉收于跌停，呈现高位调整走势；发改委等七部门要求严厉查处哄抬棉价行为，央行上调存款准备金率，政策调控对市场构成调整压力，市场的获利了结意愿和恐高情绪加剧市场抛盘；现货价格小幅回落，期现倒挂可能限制期棉调整空间。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约开盘快速封于跌停，期价跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>30000</SPAN>关口，下方将看向<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>周均线支撑，短线步入高位调整格局。操作上，逢高轻仓短空。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">谷物<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：受中国紧缩货币传闻引发的投机抛售打压，周五<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米期货市场跌至<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>美分停板。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、美国农业部下调<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010/11</SPAN>年度全球玉米产量数据至<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.185</SPAN>亿吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、欧盟<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010/11</SPAN>年度小麦市场面临供应短缺；<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、截至<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>31</SPAN>日主产区累计收购中晚籼稻<SPAN lang=EN-US>613</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：近期北方港口到货量有所增加，但东北地区近日的降雨雪天气略影响装车及收购进度，目前港口玉米价格依旧呈现坚挺态势，平舱报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2080~2100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>斤，实际平舱价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2070~2080</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，北方港口总玉米库存<SPAN lang=EN-US>110</SPAN>万吨左右，实际贸易粮库存<SPAN lang=EN-US>86</SPAN>万吨左右；广东港口玉米总库存<SPAN lang=EN-US>19</SPAN>万吨左右，优质玉米成交报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2220</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，实际成交价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2210</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；郑州强筋小麦出库价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2320</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持稳；江西九江早稻收购价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，水分<SPAN lang=EN-US>≤13.5%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存方面：玉米仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>990</SPAN>张，郑州强麦仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>5516</SPAN>张，早籼稻仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>5840</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：<SPAN lang=EN-US>c1105</SPAN>合约下探回升，恐慌过后期价或恢复涨势，操作上可待价格企稳之后依托<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>日均线买入；<SPAN lang=EN-US>WS1105</SPAN>合约上方压力较大，而下方<SPAN lang=EN-US>2560-2580</SPAN>区间存在一定的支撑，短期或维持宽幅震荡态势；受中晚籼稻价格强势影响，后市早稻或震荡上行，短期震荡调整或将持续，操作上以日内交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">油脂<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：对中国加息传闻可能给其进口带来负面影响的担忧促使买家平仓离场，亚洲植物油市场暴跌也奠定整体利空基调，美豆油周五跌停，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月合约收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>52.53</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅；受对于中国通胀加剧忧虑的打压，此外爱尔兰债务忧虑亦部分导致大宗商品市场整体下挫，从而拖累棕榈油的表现，<SPAN lang=EN-US>BMD</SPAN>毛棕榈油期货周五从前一日触及的逾两年高点回落，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月合约下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.3%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>3353</SPAN>令吉<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息：油世界表示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年哥伦比亚棕榈油产量可能在<SPAN lang=EN-US>77</SPAN>万吨。低于早先预测的<SPAN lang=EN-US>82.5</SPAN>万吨，也低于上年的实际产量<SPAN lang=EN-US>80.2</SPAN>万吨。油世界称，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年哥伦比亚棕榈油出口量可能达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>万吨，低于早先预测的<SPAN lang=EN-US>13</SPAN>万吨，上年为<SPAN lang=EN-US>21.4</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货：周五油脂现货价格跟盘下跌，沿海四级豆油约为<SPAN lang=EN-US>9800-10000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；港口棕榈油报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；国内四级菜油出厂价格处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>9800-10400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单：豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>4403</SPAN>张；棕榈油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>张；菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>5800</SPAN>张；均无变化。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：从目前的情况来看，油脂品种全线跌停，这主要是出于对国家宏观调整的预期之下前期获利盘抛压导致，随着<SPAN lang=EN-US>CPI</SPAN>再创新高，银行提高保证金率，加息及抛储等传闻不断，短期对市场形成了较大的压力，国内油脂整体基本面上并无明显变化，无需过于恐慌，短期调整之后中长期的上涨趋势不会改变。就周五的跌停来看，短期仍有下行空间，关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线支撑情况。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>由于市场方面预期中国为抑制经济过热可能很快就将加息，进而使商品采购成本增加，对商品市场形成巨大压力，周五<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>糖市原糖期货价格再次狂泻，跌幅创下了逾<SPAN lang=EN-US>22</SPAN>年之最；伦敦糖市白糖期货价格的跌幅更创下史上之最。当日<SPAN lang=EN-US>1103</SPAN>期约糖价暴跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>345</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>-11.6%</SPAN>），收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>26.21</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅，创下<SPAN lang=EN-US>1988</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>月份以来最大单日跌幅，周三<SPAN lang=EN-US>1003</SPAN>期约糖价一度冲击了<SPAN lang=EN-US>1981</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月份以来<SPAN lang=EN-US>33.39</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅的最高点；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>期约糖价同时暴跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>337</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>-12.4%</SPAN>），以<SPAN lang=EN-US>23.89</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅报收。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、巴西：<SPAN lang=EN-US>Cosan</SPAN>下调<SPAN lang=EN-US>10/11</SPAN>年度甘蔗压榨量和食糖产量<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR>2</SPAN>、欧盟：决定自<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月开始将原糖进口关税下调至零<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内现货未有明显变化，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7350</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1814</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内主产区天气：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>今天晚上，多云，东到东北风<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>级；明天白天到<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>日，多云间阴天，偏北风<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>级，阵风<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>级，桂西北多云间阴天，我区其它地区多云。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>技术上，郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约受外盘暴跌影响而直接封于跌停板，调整迹象明显，后期仍有下跌空间，操作上可逢反弹参与做空。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">5<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">粕豆<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">盘面走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、下周预计在黑龙江省抛售<SPAN lang=EN-US>24.6</SPAN>万吨的地方储备大豆，起拍价暂定为<SPAN lang=EN-US>3633</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，对竞拍油企的要求是日加工量应达<SPAN lang=EN-US>500</SPAN>吨以上。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、今年<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月进口大豆<SPAN lang=EN-US>373</SPAN>万吨，金额<SPAN lang=EN-US>17.57</SPAN>亿美元，每吨均价<SPAN lang=EN-US>471</SPAN>美元；今年<SPAN lang=EN-US>1~10</SPAN>月中国累计进口大豆<SPAN lang=EN-US>4390</SPAN>万吨，同比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>25.8%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：美豆在亚洲市场普跌的压力下跌停，交易商修正持仓头寸，前期的获利盘平仓使得下跌压力增加，美豆<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月合约收盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1269</SPAN>美分，下跌了<SPAN lang=EN-US>70</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-tab-count: 1"> </SPAN>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">、黑龙江东部地区大豆收购价保持相对稳定，其中，哈尔滨地区大豆收购报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>3<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">.74</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>公斤<SPAN lang=EN-US>-3.92</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>公斤，近期市场粮商收购积极性较高，但农户看涨意愿较强，惜售心<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">理明显，市场整体成交情况不是很理想。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、今日，山东沿海地区工厂豆粕价格下跌，其<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">中日照地区某工厂<SPAN lang=EN-US>43%</SPAN>蛋白豆粕价格最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>3600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较昨日保持相对稳定，<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月上半月前合同，限量出货，当地工厂因更换蒸汽管道已停机，计划一周左右。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">盘面分析：今天连盘豆类低开后快速回落，大幅减仓并封于跌停板，其中豆粕<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约减仓幅度高达<SPAN lang=EN-US>22</SPAN>万手，约<SPAN lang=EN-US>15%</SPAN>。虽然盘中豆类曾几度打开跌停板，但多头减仓意味浓厚，获利回吐压力下，期价最终收于跌停，技术上调整迹象明显。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">操作建议：可阶段性逢反弹抛空。注意连粕<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>与<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约的套利操作，可“多近空远”。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">金属产品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铜<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：周五伦铜回天乏力，继续下跌，因市场对中国加息产生担忧，尾盘跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.08%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>8570.8.</SPAN>目前铜价跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日均线，下方有望下探<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日，测试该位的支撑。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美国密歇根大学<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月消费者信心指数初值为<SPAN lang=EN-US>69.3</SPAN>，预估为<SPAN lang=EN-US>69</SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月终值为<SPAN lang=EN-US>67.7. 2.</SPAN>智利<SPAN lang=EN-US>Collahuasi</SPAN>铜矿罢工进入第八天，尚无谈判计划。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现铜报<SPAN lang=EN-US>65450-66550</SPAN>，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>1450</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，现货平水铜贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>，贴水小幅收窄，表明现货跟跌意愿不强；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.60-7.68</SPAN>，比价大幅走低，因沪铜贴水，有所失真，参考意义不大。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存：<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>日<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铜库存减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>175</SPAN>吨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>362775</SPAN>吨，注销仓单占库存比为<SPAN lang=EN-US>9.32%</SPAN>，较昨日小幅减少，据历史数据显示，注销仓单占比在<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>之下的话，伦铜库存增加的可能性较大，目前的水平表明库存还将有减少的空间。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：周五商品市场受中国加息的忧虑，全面大幅下跌。另外美元反弹也给铜价造成压力。但由于伦铜库存持续减少，并且后期依旧存在下跌空间，该利多因素使得期铜回调空间有限。在全球通胀的背景下，商品依旧为投资所选，因此此番下跌依旧解读为暂时的回调而非趋势拐头向下。因此建议投资者不可看太空。操作上关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线的支撑，若有企稳可再次介入做多。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">锌、铝交易提示<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜，伦锌暴跌逾<SPAN lang=EN-US>6%</SPAN>，技术形态恶化，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2334</SPAN>美元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.31%</SPAN>；伦铝尾盘跳水，成交明显放大，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2380</SPAN>美元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.45%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>内外盘比价情况：锌内外比价最高<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.48</SPAN>，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.85</SPAN>，铝内外比价位于<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.78-7.03</SPAN>之间。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.IMF</SPAN>准备在爱尔兰提出要求时提供支持<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2.APEC</SPAN>声明呼吁形成广泛的自由贸易区<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>19150-19250</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>950</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>530-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>430</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>19100-19200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>950</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>580-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>480</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>A00 </SPAN>铝报在<SPAN lang=EN-US>16380-16420</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>260</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，升水<SPAN lang=EN-US>200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>-</SPAN>升水<SPAN lang=EN-US>240</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存方面：本周上期所锌现货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>300848</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>4093</SPAN>吨，期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>214069</SPAN>吨，较上周增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>19037</SPAN>吨。铝现货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>485420</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>7391</SPAN>吨，期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>369678</SPAN>吨，较上周增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>10589</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存最新库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>631875</SPAN>吨，较上周减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1325</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铝库存最新库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4252550</SPAN>吨，较上周减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>31725</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：消息面上，因<SPAN lang=EN-US>CPI</SPAN>创出<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>个月新高，市场加息传闻再起，商品市场承压暴跌。资金面上，沪锌主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净持仓量相对平稳，净空单在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.3</SPAN>万手左右；沪铝前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名空头持仓减仓较多，净空单回到<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>万手以内。技术显示，市场展开回调，短线料将维持跌势。操作建议：沪锌空单持有，第一目标位<SPAN lang=EN-US>19000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；沪铝空单持有，目标位<SPAN lang=EN-US>16300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：周五伦金大幅下挫，因市场担忧中国会出台紧缩性的货币政策，从而使得市场的流动性有所收紧，尾盘伦金跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.82</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1368.61</SPAN>，目前处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日均线与<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线之间运行。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1. </SPAN>美国密歇根大学<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月消费者信心指数初值为<SPAN lang=EN-US>69.3</SPAN>，预估为<SPAN lang=EN-US>69</SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月终值为<SPAN lang=EN-US>67.7<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2.11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>日<SPAN lang=EN-US>SPDR</SPAN>基金黄金持有量持平与<SPAN lang=EN-US>1290.86</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：上海黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US>9999</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>298.99</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.31</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，跌幅为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.77% <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：隔夜黄金大幅下挫，因此前中国的<SPAN lang=EN-US>CPI</SPAN>显示中国的通胀形势越趋严峻，调控难度加大，市场对中国是否再次加息产生忧虑。不过在全球通胀的预期之下，黄金作为一种抗通胀的商品，其投资需求依旧较高，任何一次的回调均是提供买入的机会，目前金价已跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>1380</SPAN>的位置，下方会测试<SPAN lang=EN-US>1350</SPAN>，若有企稳可继续买入。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4 <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>8mm Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4630</SPAN>，持平，<SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4750</SPAN>，持平<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>(1) </SPAN>美股收低，受中国收紧政策预期影响<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) </SPAN>谈判敏感期，三大矿山操控中国市场铁矿供应<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) </SPAN>节能减排助钢材供应压力缓解，未来钢价适度回暖可期<SPAN lang=EN-US> (4) </SPAN>印度粉矿<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>日<SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>165-169</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>47847</SPAN>，减<SPAN lang=EN-US>889</SPAN>。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">小结：上周<SPAN lang=EN-US>RB1105</SPAN>合约冲高回落。目前，限电减产的效果显现，库存继续萎缩，众多基本面因素都有所改善；但由于通胀压力陡增，市场对紧缩政策的担忧加强；因此在这种情况下，期钢短期难以摆脱宽幅震荡行情，下方关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日线支撑力度，日内交易为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">连塑<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-10</SPAN>月我国石脑油产量同比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>48.7%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、帝人公司计划进军高性能聚乙烯市场。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：今日现货价格继续走高。扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>12300</SPAN>元，较昨日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>300</SPAN>元。观望气氛浓重，交投清淡。东北亚乙烯价格略有回升，报<SPAN lang=EN-US>978——980</SPAN>美元，微涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>美元。东南亚报<SPAN lang=EN-US>953——955</SPAN>美元，与上一交易日持平。终端用户库存充裕，没有购买欲望。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：今日连塑继续弱势跌停，下方承接无力，盘中交投清淡，显示市场恐慌有所加剧。基本面上，但<SPAN lang=EN-US>CPI</SPAN>大幅上行，央行上调存款准备金，预示货币政策再度收紧，亚洲乙烯弱势运行又加重市场担忧，预计连塑短期内仍有回落要求。操作上，投资者手中空单可继续谨慎持有，下方目标位<SPAN lang=EN-US>12550</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><BR>2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>PVC<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、华星化工抛出五年百亿发展规划；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、液氯行情有望稳中回落。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货价相对平稳，华东地区乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8950</SPAN>元，电石法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>9050</SPAN>元，均与昨日持平。市场交投一般。电石价格继续保持平稳。西北电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3800</SPAN>元，华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>4100</SPAN>元，成交一般。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>弱势跌停，盘中交投清淡，成交锐减，显示上方压力巨大。基本面上，央行上调存款准备金，显示货币政策进一步收紧，北方需求减弱在一定程度上对<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>的上涨形成制约。预计短期<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>仍有回落寻底的要求，操作上，投资者手中空单可继续持有，下方目标位<SPAN lang=EN-US>8500</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>PTA<BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油收低逾<SPAN lang=EN-US>3%</SPAN>，因市场传言中国可能升息，触发获利了结。<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 12</SPAN>月原油期货下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.93</SPAN>美元，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>84.88</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、聚酯切片市场报价困难，部分大厂报价平稳或没有明确报价，萧山一工厂报价高位回落至<SPAN lang=EN-US>13500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，下游买盘继续缩手。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、江浙涤纶长丝市场陷入混乱，部分工厂报价持稳，另一部分工厂出现较大幅度的下跌或优惠，市场观望气氛较浓。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>现货价格：华东<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场气氛低迷，期货开盘跌停，现货市场少量报盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9700-9800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，部分买家递盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，商谈重心在<SPAN lang=EN-US>9500-9600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，市场实盘稀少。亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场平淡下滑，期货开盘即跌停，市场报盘稀少，买卖双方态度僵持，少量台产保税货商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1200-1210</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，市场实际交易清淡。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>23635</SPAN>张，较前一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>240</SPAN>张，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>201</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：央行再度上调存款准备金，政策紧缩预期加强令市场抛压涌现，商品市场全线暴跌，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>也承压剧烈调整；国内现货市场报价大幅回落，市场实盘稀少。聚酯气氛大幅降温，下游采购意向下降，市场各方观望气氛较浓。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA1105</SPAN>合约封于跌停，短线将进一步下探<SPAN lang=EN-US>9800-10000</SPAN>一线，有望延续调整走势。操作上，逢高短空介入。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR><BR>4 </SPAN>燃料油早评<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">111</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">月<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>日，纽约商业交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>(NYMEX)</SPAN>原油期货收盘大幅下挫，回吐了近日涨幅，因市场担忧中国或加息以控制其经济增长速度，投资者纷纷获利了结。<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>十二月原油期货结算价跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.93</SPAN>美元，至<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>日以来的最低水平每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>84.88</SPAN>美元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.3%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>布伦特原油期货最新跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.47</SPAN>美元，至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>86.34</SPAN>美元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.8%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">亚洲燃料油市场进一步走坚<SPAN lang=EN-US>,12</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>/1</SPAN>月跨月价差接近逆价差水准<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">截至<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>日当周美国库欣原油库存增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>241,034</SPAN>桶<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-tab-count: 1"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">上期所仓单<SPAN lang=EN-US>359500</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>5000</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">上海期货交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>FU1103</SPAN>成交及持仓前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>总排名，持买单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>27422</SPAN>手，减持<SPAN lang=EN-US>4802</SPAN>手；持卖单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>44152</SPAN>手，减持<SPAN lang=EN-US>14121</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">华南船用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>交易过驳价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4560-4570</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；库提价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4570-4580</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价持平，国产锅炉用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>交易价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4400-4450</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价持平；华东船用混调高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4700-4750</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，锅炉用混调高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：在近期多重宏观调控打压以及市场过分爆炒压制下，商品期货市场一泻千里，三分之二商品期价跌停，沪燃表现较为坚挺，但前期涨势受挫，短期或将在<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日与<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线之间盘整，短线介入。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">5 <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">天然橡胶早评<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">11</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">月<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>日，纽约商业交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>(NYMEX)</SPAN>原油期货收盘大幅下挫，回吐了近日涨幅，因市场担忧中国或加息以控制其经济增长速度，投资者纷纷获利了结。<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>十二月原油期货结算价跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.93</SPAN>美元，至<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>日以来的最低水平每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>84.88</SPAN>美元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.3%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">TOCOM</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">橡胶期货<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>日从<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>年高点回落，创六个月最大跌幅，因市场担忧中国或采取额外措施遏制通胀。泰国橡胶现货价格维持在纪录高位，供应担忧情绪依旧。今早<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月基准合约报开<SPAN lang=EN-US>355.1</SPAN>日圆<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>千克，下方<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日均线支撑。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">马来西亚<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月天然橡胶产量同比降<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.4%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>74,548</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">中国重汽今年<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-10</SPAN>月产销辆超过<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>万辆<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">上期所仓单<SPAN lang=EN-US>45405</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>425</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">上海期货交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>RU1105</SPAN>成交及持仓前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>总排名，持买单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>65074</SPAN>手，减持<SPAN lang=EN-US>3986</SPAN>手；持卖单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>56799</SPAN>手，减持<SPAN lang=EN-US>2765</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">上海市场贸易商依旧报价稀 少，观望后市。云南国营全乳胶报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>33500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，海南<SPAN lang=EN-US>5#</SPAN>胶报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>32400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右；国储烟片含税报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>34500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右；越南<SPAN lang=EN-US>3L</SPAN>胶<SPAN lang=EN-US>13</SPAN>税报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>32700</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，听闻<SPAN lang=EN-US>17</SPAN>税报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>33000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：无任从期现价差还是近期国内受高价影响封盘现象，对于本周初天胶市场所引导的急速拉涨行情都已经呈现超买，在国际以及交易所部门利空不断的重拳出击下，市场急速下探，但基本面后期落叶期供需仍较紧张，市场调整大于拐头概率，建议投资者关注下方<SPAN lang=EN-US>10-20</SPAN>日均线区域内的盘整行情，短期日内操作。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">『免责声明：期市瞬息万变，盘中突发消息也将影响走势突变，投资人应盘中实时应
页:
[1]