<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">股指期货<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">股指早盘<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>瑞达期货：股市或当热钱池，助推期指续上扬<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘指数 收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>道琼斯<SPAN lang=EN-US> 11444.10 9.24 0.08% <BR></SPAN>纳斯达克<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2578.98 1.64 0.06% <BR></SPAN>标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500 1225.85 4.79 0.39%<BR></SPAN>富时<SPAN lang=EN-US>100 5875.35 12.56 0.21% <BR></SPAN>德国<SPAN lang=EN-US>DAX 6754.20 19.51 0.29%<BR></SPAN>法国<SPAN lang=EN-US>CAC40 3916.73 -0.05 -0.00%<BR>C0MEX</SPAN>黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1393.90 10.80 0.78%<BR>NYMEX</SPAN>原油<SPAN lang=EN-US> 87.40 0.91 1.05% <BR></SPAN>美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> 76.59 0.76 1.00%<BR></SPAN>小结：因劳工部报告的非农就业人数的增幅好于预期，美股周五小幅上扬，延续了近期的上涨趋势。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1.IMF</SPAN>通过份额改革方案，中国投票权从<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.65%</SPAN>升至<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.07%</SPAN>，升至第三；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2.</SPAN>多部委酝酿联合制定措施控制物价上涨；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3.</SPAN>周小川：以总量调控应对热钱，中国筑池以待；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>4.</SPAN>银监会摸底<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>家大型房企多头风险；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>5.</SPAN>上海国资重组冲刺，整合机会大起底；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>6.</SPAN>日央行<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日宣布继续推行零利率政策，并于下周动用新设基金购买国债；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>7. </SPAN>美<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月的非农就业人数环比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>15.1</SPAN>万，明显超出预期；同时上调<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月的共<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>万非农就业人数。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>8. 9</SPAN>月美国成屋待完成销售量意外下滑<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.8%</SPAN>，表明住房市场将需很长时间才能好转；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>持仓分析：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>上周五中金所前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名主力多方持单<SPAN lang=EN-US>17695</SPAN>，减单<SPAN lang=EN-US>1324</SPAN>，空方持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>14335</SPAN>手，减仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>2034</SPAN>手，净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>3281</SPAN>，整体格局空方占优。前五名主力机构持多<SPAN lang=EN-US>7944</SPAN>，减持<SPAN lang=EN-US>540</SPAN>手，空方持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>14335</SPAN>，减持<SPAN lang=EN-US>714</SPAN>，净空持仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>6391</SPAN>手，空头优较明显且持仓集中程度高。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>因主力合约临近到期，市场提前出现移仓换月的迹象。从持仓动向来看，国泰君安双边减仓，今天广发和银河巨减空单是空方阵营的大变化。本周虽期现基差有所回落但维持在高位，且上周五重新回升，因此，空头套利或套期保值仍具有较大吸引力。期指升水太较高，短期利好空头，近中期利好多头。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>IF1011</SPAN>合约收盘报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3578</SPAN>点，预计<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1011</SPAN>期货合约的区间在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3615-3550</SPAN>之间运行，如上方冲破<SPAN lang=EN-US>3615</SPAN>点可以多单进入，止损下设<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>个点；如下方破点<SPAN lang=EN-US>3550</SPAN>可以介入小空，止损上设<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>个点。如在区间内窄幅震荡，可以高空低多的策略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>合约名称<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>阻力位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>强支撑位<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>IF300 3580 3550 3494 3468<BR>IF1011 3655 3615 3550 3523<BR>IF1012 3764 3725 3646 3606<BR>IF1103 3852 3811 3722 3673<BR>IF1106 3885 3856 3781 3736<BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">农产品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">油脂<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：亚洲植物油市场上涨推动，美豆油刷新<SPAN lang=EN-US>2008</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月以<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>来近月合约最高收盘价格，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月合约收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>52.22</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息：国际方面，美统计局数据显示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月美国豆油库存总<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>计为<SPAN lang=EN-US>33.58</SPAN>亿磅，高于<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月的<SPAN lang=EN-US>32.83</SPAN>亿磅；马来西亚出口显示，当<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>月出口水平有小幅增长，同时，政府公布了新的油棕榈油种植<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>计划；欧盟中如英、德等国生物柴油用量有明显增长。国内方<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>面，自解除阿根廷豆油进口限制令后，国内豆油进口迅速恢复<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>，但整体油脂油料折油水平仍低于去年同期；国家公布新年度<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>收储政策，提高大豆收储价格至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.9</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>斤，但不再为油厂提供<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>收购补贴。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货：受期货市场持续大涨影响，上周油脂现货价格大幅<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>提高<SPAN lang=EN-US>300-500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。沿海四级豆油约为<SPAN lang=EN-US>9700-9900</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；港口<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>棕榈油报价集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US>8850-9100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；国内四级菜油出厂价格处<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>于<SPAN lang=EN-US>9500-10000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单：豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>1027</SPAN>张；棕榈油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>张；菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>5800</SPAN>张；均无<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>变化。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：目前，油脂处于牛市行情已无疑问，在牛市基<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>础下，面对回调是买入的大好时机，做空风险偏大。对于目前<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>的行情而言，豆油、菜油已经站上万元关口，棕榈油也跃居<SPAN lang=EN-US> 9200</SPAN>上方，涨停的态势预示着后市仍有空间，但随着油脂的不<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>断上行，调整风险加大，建议未来多单仍需谨慎，做好仓位控<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>制，不建议滚动赢利加仓，菜油与豆油建价差扩大套利仍是稳<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>健投资者的较好选择。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期棉收涨，但美元反弹限制其涨幅。<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月棉花涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.78</SPAN>美分，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>142.23</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、据美国农业部报告，<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>22</SPAN>日<SPAN lang=EN-US>-10</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>28</SPAN>日美国净签约出口本年度陆地棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>127187</SPAN>吨，比前一周大增<SPAN lang=EN-US>112%</SPAN>；装运<SPAN lang=EN-US>21274</SPAN>吨，与前一周降低<SPAN lang=EN-US>22%</SPAN>，比近四周平均值降低<SPAN lang=EN-US>20%</SPAN>。该周签约出口本年度皮马棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>862</SPAN>吨，装运<SPAN lang=EN-US>300</SPAN>吨。中国当周签约进口陆地棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>74707</SPAN>吨；装运<SPAN lang=EN-US>6033</SPAN>吨。皮马棉签约进口<SPAN lang=EN-US>181</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> 2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>日，进口棉中国主港报价延续前日的特点，除美棉和印度棉涨幅较小以外，其他品种继续上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>4-7</SPAN>美分。从目前的形势看，美棉和中亚棉均已销售大半，其他品种供应量很不确定。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：棉花指数<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>28158</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上一交易日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>247</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>张，有效预报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>59</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>吨）。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>主产区天气：受冷空气影响，<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>－<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>日，内蒙古东南部、华北、东北地区大部、黄淮、江淮等地将先后有<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>～<SPAN lang=EN-US>6℃</SPAN>的降温，内蒙古东南部、河北东北部、东北地区中南部、山东北部和东部等地的部分地区降温可达<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>～<SPAN lang=EN-US>10℃</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：美联储重启量化宽松政策及中国需求强劲，美棉继续收涨，短线挑战<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>美分关口；国内棉市维持供需偏紧格局以及持续攀高的棉籽收购价支撑期价，现货市场延续上涨态势，强势格局未改。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约再度涨停收盘，期价站上<SPAN lang=EN-US>30000</SPAN>关口加速拉升，短线进一步看向<SPAN lang=EN-US>32000</SPAN>一线，延续冲高走势。操作上，多头思路，多单继续持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><BR><BR>3<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>继周四糖价暴涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.5</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅后，周五<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>糖市因美国非农结业情况好于预期引发美元币值回升导致整个商品市场走势趋于平<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>缓而进入震荡整理状态，不过，受供给偏紧以及美联储（<SPAN lang=EN-US>FED</SPAN>）出台刺激经济增长的一揽子方案引发前期美元走势疲软的影<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>响，当日盘中糖价曾再创<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>年新高，远期合约糖价则小幅下跌。当日<SPAN lang=EN-US>1103</SPAN>期约糖价上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>+0.3%</SPAN>），收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>31.76</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/ </SPAN>磅，盘中<SPAN lang=EN-US>1003</SPAN>期约糖价一度冲击了<SPAN lang=EN-US>1981</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月份以来<SPAN lang=EN-US>32.30</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅的最高点；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>期约糖价同时上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>+0.2%</SPAN>），以<SPAN lang=EN-US> 29.29</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅报收。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、巴西港口运糖商船已减至<SPAN lang=EN-US>66</SPAN>艘<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR>2</SPAN>、河池开榨时间预计推迟一周<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内现货未有明显变化，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2073</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内主产区天气：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>今天白天到晚上，百色、河池等市多云到阴天，局部有小雨，我区其它地区多云。<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>南宁市：今天白天到晚上，多云，东北<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>风<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-2</SPAN>级，最高气温<SPAN lang=EN-US> 27℃</SPAN>，最低气温<SPAN lang=EN-US>16℃</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>技术上，郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约受外盘新高及周边商品市场强劲多头人气推动而再创新高并站上<SPAN lang=EN-US>7000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨大关，但大幅减仓也同时<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>显示多头资金获利了结迹象，谨防后期冲高回落。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><BR>4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">粕豆<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>cftc</SPAN>持仓报告显示<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>大豆期货基金净多持仓继续增加，创出新高。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、美豆国内基差继续上升，显示供需仍然紧张。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、本周二美农业部将公布新一期供需报告，市场普遍预期利多。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>外盘：美豆期价继续走高，期价达到两年来的高点，市场预期农业部将在新一期供需报告中调低期末库存。美豆<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1274.75</SPAN>上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>37.25</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>美豆盘整后继续向上突破，整体上看前期的走势为上涨中的调整格局，本次突破后，后期的上涨空间打开，走势趋于明朗，近期可保持看多思路。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、国产大豆价格保持坚挺，东北地区价格收购价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.9</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>斤以上。港口进口大豆分销价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4050-4150</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、豆粕现货现货价格走高，沿海地区价格能在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>操作建议：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>上周五连盘豆粕大幅上涨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>1109</SPAN>合约有望突破近期的震荡区间，后期有望继续走高。连豆最后涨停，整体走高的态势已经明朗。<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>前期建议大豆轻仓建多，从目前走势看，大豆仍旧强于豆粕，因此可选择将资金放在连豆上，多单金字塔式加仓。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">谷物早盘提示：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：受美元走强及需求疲软打压，周五<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米期货市场收低。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、美农业部确认中国拒收一船美国玉米；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>10/11</SPAN>年度阿根廷小麦产量预计为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1210</SPAN>万吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、近期安徽淮南稻米价格持续上涨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：目前东北港口新陈玉米价格坚挺，大连港内玉米平舱价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2050-2060</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，水分<SPAN lang=EN-US>14%</SPAN>，近期港内新陈玉米货源较紧张；广东港口优质陈玉米价格走势也表现坚挺，港内优质玉米成交价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2190-2200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨上下，较前一日基本持平，眼下港内玉米库存约在<SPAN lang=EN-US>26</SPAN>万吨左右，其中优质粮源已基本销售殆尽；郑州强筋小麦出库价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；江西九江早稻收购价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，水分≤<SPAN lang=EN-US>13.5%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存方面：玉米仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>990</SPAN>张，郑州强麦仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>5396</SPAN>张，早籼稻仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>5270</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：<SPAN lang=EN-US>c1105</SPAN>合约下方<SPAN lang=EN-US>2200</SPAN>一线支撑较好，但调控预期下期价上行动能不足，建议短期震荡思路对待；<SPAN lang=EN-US>WS1105</SPAN>合约期价重新站上均线系统，下方<SPAN lang=EN-US>2635</SPAN>一线支撑稳固，短期或震荡于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2635-2700</SPAN>区间；缺乏基本面指引，短期<SPAN lang=EN-US>ER1105</SPAN>合约或呈宽幅震荡。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">金属产品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">锌、铝交易提示<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：上周五伦锌尾盘回落，日线收阴，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2530</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.32%</SPAN>；伦铝高开低走，美元的强势回升使市场承压，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2450</SPAN>美元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.53%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>内外盘比价情况：锌内外比价最高<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.42</SPAN>，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.19</SPAN>，铝内外比价位于<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.92-7.06</SPAN>之间。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月非农就业人数增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>15.1</SPAN>万人<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>新兴市场经济体<SPAN lang=EN-US>IMF</SPAN>投票权将增大<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>19950-20050</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>750</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>795-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>695</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>19900-20000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>750</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>845-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>745</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>A00 </SPAN>铝报在<SPAN lang=EN-US>16480-16520</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>270</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>90</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存方面：本周上期所锌现货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>296755</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>6574</SPAN>吨，期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>195032</SPAN>吨，较上周增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>12470</SPAN>吨。铝现货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>492811</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>2441</SPAN>吨，期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>359089</SPAN>吨，较上周减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>640</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存最新库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>633200</SPAN>吨，较上周增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>11300</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铝库存最新库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4284275</SPAN>吨，较上周减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>22075</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：消息面上，美国维持量化宽松政策，对整个大宗商品市场构成推动。资金面上，沪锌主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净持仓量下降，净空单接近<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>万手；沪铝前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净持仓量变化不大，维持净空状态。技术显示，市场短线或再度冲高，但在年内高点附近遇阻回落的可能性较大。操作建议：沪锌轻仓短多持有，关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>22000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近的抛空机会；沪铝短多持有，<SPAN lang=EN-US>17800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近逐步获利了结。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>8mm Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4420</SPAN>，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4570</SPAN>，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>(1) </SPAN>明年将实行更大规模的钢铁过剩产能淘汰政策<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) </SPAN>库存挤出效应显现，钢市已现暖意<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) </SPAN>发改委等部门清查钢铁项目，瞒报地区将区域限批<SPAN lang=EN-US>(4) </SPAN>印度粉矿<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日<SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>160-162</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>47847</SPAN>，减<SPAN lang=EN-US>889</SPAN>。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">小结：周五国内商品市场受美国第二轮定量宽松货币政策影响集体大涨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>RB1105</SPAN>合约突破<SPAN lang=EN-US>4700</SPAN>关口，操作上建议前期多单逢高减仓，回测下方均线再建多。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：昨日金价日<SPAN lang=EN-US>K</SPAN>线收一下影线较长的倒锤头，表明下方支撑力度较强，且周五再次创下历史新高，其中伦敦金上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.05%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1393.43</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>盎司，最高触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>1398.25</SPAN>，离<SPAN lang=EN-US>1400</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>盎司仅一步之遥。目前金价运行于均线组之上，上涨趋势明显。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月消费者信贷增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>21.5</SPAN>亿美元，为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月以来首次增长。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月非农就业人口增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>15.1</SPAN>万人，预估为增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>万人。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日<SPAN lang=EN-US>SPDR</SPAN>基金黄金持有量减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.42</SPAN>吨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1291.77</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：上海黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US>9999</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>297.39</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.64</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，涨幅为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.55% <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：隔夜黄金探底回升，继续触及历史新高。周五美国就业数据好于预期，一度打压伦敦金至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1274.35</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>盎司，而后市场又开始担心该就业数据的好转只是暂时的，并不具备可持续性，而且美国未来面临着通胀加剧的担忧，因此金价又再度上涨，从近期美元指数与金价的表现来看，美元反弹给以金价的压力远小于美元下跌给以金价上涨的动力。鉴于以上分析后期美元走软和中印实物黄金需求的增加以及受益于通胀忧虑带来的黄金投资需求的增加，使得金价还有上涨空间，突破<SPAN lang=EN-US>1400</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>盎司之后，面临着惯性上涨的可能，有望到达<SPAN lang=EN-US>1450</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>盎司。建议投资者小量多多单参与，止损于<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线处。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铜<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：周五伦铜晚间因美元大幅反弹而回吐稍早涨幅，自高点<SPAN lang=EN-US>8769</SPAN>下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>104</SPAN>点至<SPAN lang=EN-US>8675</SPAN>，目前铜价运行于均线组之上，上涨趋势依旧。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月消费者信贷增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>21.5</SPAN>亿美元，为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>月以来首次增长。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月非农就业人口增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>15.1</SPAN>万人，预估为增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>万人。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：上海现铜报<SPAN lang=EN-US>65500-65900</SPAN>元，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>2150</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，现货平水铜贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>750</SPAN>，贴水扩大，表明现货跟涨力度不够；内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.68-7.69</SPAN>，比价小幅走高，表明内盘上涨意愿较强。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铜库存减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>975</SPAN>吨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>366350</SPAN>吨，注销仓单占库存比为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.43%</SPAN>，较昨日小幅减少，据历史数据显示，注销仓单占比在<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>之下的话，伦铜库存增加的可能性较大，目前的水平表明库存还将有减少的空间。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：周五伦铜自年内高点回落，受美元反弹拖累。美国就业数据好于预期是美元自低位反弹的主要原因，因市场认为此前美联储采取的经济刺激措施显的有些多余。另外智利铜矿工人周五宣布开始罢工，使得市场依旧担心铜的供应问题，该铜矿产量占智利产量的<SPAN lang=EN-US>1/3</SPAN>。另外本周<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFTC</SPAN>持仓表明多头在高位出现获利了结，净多持仓也出现了小幅减少，鉴于以上分析，目前利多因素有所减弱，因此建议投资者多头小量平仓，暂不建议建空单，下方关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>8500</SPAN>或<SPAN lang=EN-US>65000</SPAN>一线的支撑。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">燃料油<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日，纽约商业交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>(NYMEX)</SPAN>原油期货收盘上涨，结算价触及两年高位。这主要得益于美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月份非农就业人数自<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月份以来首次增加。<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>十二月原油期货结算价涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.36</SPAN>美元，至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>86.85</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.4%</SPAN>，为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2008</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月份以来最高结算价<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>罢工造成法国炼油企业亏损<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.3</SPAN>亿欧元<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>中石化将大幅削减<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>及<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月柴油出口量<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>本周库存小计<SPAN lang=EN-US>470817</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1900</SPAN>吨，期货小计<SPAN lang=EN-US>340100</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>26500</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>上海期货交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>FU1101</SPAN>成交及持仓前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>总排名，持买单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>22466</SPAN>手，减持<SPAN lang=EN-US>1055</SPAN>手；持卖单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>35373</SPAN>手，减持<SPAN lang=EN-US>2280</SPAN>手<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>空头套保头寸继续减持。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>截止本周四，新加坡高硫<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>现货平均价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>469.53</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上周平均价<SPAN lang=EN-US> 478.73</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>9.2</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌幅为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.92%</SPAN>。华南黄埔市场船用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>周均价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4480</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上周上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>36</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.81%<BR></SPAN>观点总结：，在原油或将在<SPAN lang=EN-US>80-90</SPAN>区间第四季度震荡的可能性下，沪燃中期上涨趋势已经打开，中期多单关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>4800</SPAN>点的支撑力度，上方<SPAN lang=EN-US>100-150</SPAN>点空间。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>PTA<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油收涨，因美国就业数据强劲。<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 12</SPAN>月原油期货上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.36</SPAN>美元，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>86.85</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、绍兴远东石化两套产能分别为<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年的<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>装置于<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>日开工率降低至<SPAN lang=EN-US>50%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、佳龙石化位于石狮的<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年的<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>装置由于一些技术问题关闭检修，计划检修为<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>天左右。<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>、江浙地区涤丝大幅上涨，各规格涤丝涨幅基本以三百为基准，个别前期价格偏高较少涨一至二百，但随后又迅速补涨，多数工厂涤纶丝涨幅在<SPAN lang=EN-US>300-500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，各个市场涨势汹涌，不少工厂封盘不报。<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>、江浙涤纶短纤市场持续上涨，市场主流报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>13300-13800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，商谈重心在<SPAN lang=EN-US>13300-13500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近。市场交易气氛良好，交易量增多。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货价格：华东<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场报盘涨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，受期货涨停影响，市场持货商多数封盘，买卖双方看涨心态浓烈，实际成交暂不明朗。亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场多数封盘，市场持货商捂盘惜售，上午一单台产保税商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1150</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，买方观望较多，实际成交暂不明朗。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>22753</SPAN>张，较前一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1000</SPAN>张，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>2461</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：美联储重启量化宽松提振原油上涨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>价格维持涨势，上游原料对<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>构成支撑。因部分供应商装置故障导致后续的合同减量供应，聚酯买家进入现货市场采购，现货价格继续高涨，持货商多数封盘，看涨心态浓烈；聚酯切片<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月合同报价上调；资金炒作情绪日益高涨，聚酯市场加速上涨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA1105</SPAN>合约高开再度收于涨停，期价站上<SPAN lang=EN-US>10000</SPAN>关口，刷新合约新高，延续震荡上行走势。操作上，多单持有，今日冲高适当减磅。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">连塑<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、低碳化学品产业崛起正逢其时；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、扬子石化建成省级聚烯烃工程中心；<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、俄罗斯上调<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月乙烯出口关税<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：今日现货价格相对平稳。扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>11450</SPAN>元，与昨日持平。商家出货意愿较强，市场成交一般。亚洲乙烯再度走势不一，东北亚继续小幅回调报<SPAN lang=EN-US>970——972</SPAN>美元。东南亚报<SPAN lang=EN-US>953——955</SPAN>美元，与昨日持平。中东货物大量涌入市场拉低了乙烯价格。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>23191</SPAN>张，较昨日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>47</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：今日连塑高开高走，轻松创出近期新高。显示市场人气有所回暖。基本面上，亚洲乙烯弱势回调加重了市场的担忧，但美联储继续执行量化宽松的货币政策打压了美元的走势。国内通胀预期强烈，市场资金充裕，预计短期内连塑仍将延续震荡攀升格局。操作上，投资者手中多单继续谨慎持有，上方压力位在<SPAN lang=EN-US>12500——12700</SPAN>一线，稳健的投资者也可在<SPAN lang=EN-US>12500</SPAN>上方逢高逐步减仓。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><BR>4 PVC<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、吉林电石厂加快淘汰落后产能；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、南化子公司梧州联溢化工烧碱一期项目正式投产；<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、俄罗斯上调<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月乙烯出口关税。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货价相对平稳，华东地区乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8500</SPAN>元，电石法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8350</SPAN>元，均与昨日持平。下游采购商补仓谨慎。电石价格也平稳运行。西北电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3450—3700</SPAN>元，华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>4000—4050</SPAN>元，成交一般。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>2121</SPAN>张，与上一交易日持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>强势走高，轻松创出近期新高。显示市场上多头气氛热烈。基本面上，北方需求也开始减弱在一定程度上对<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>的上涨形成制约。但国内通胀预期强烈，市场流动性充裕，且<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>上游原料及现货价格坚挺、现货库存不高均对<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>形成有力的支撑。后市<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>有望继续震荡上行。操作上，若明日早盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>继续大幅冲高，投资者可先落袋为安，待回落整理后再买入，短线不宜追高。中线投资者手中多单建议以<SPAN lang=EN-US>8330</SPAN>一线为止赢位谨慎持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR>5 </SPAN>天然橡胶<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>美国劳工部（<SPAN lang=EN-US>Labor Department</SPAN>）周五发布报告称，美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月非农就业人口增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>15.1</SPAN>万人<SPAN lang=EN-US>(</SPAN>媒体预估为增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>万<SPAN lang=EN-US>),9</SPAN>月修正后为减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.1</SPAN>万人<SPAN lang=EN-US>(</SPAN>前值为减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>9.5</SPAN>万<SPAN lang=EN-US>)</SPAN>。但是就业人数的增加不足以降低失业率，失业率仍高达<SPAN lang=EN-US>9.6%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>十二月原油期货结算价涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.36</SPAN>美元，至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>86.85</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.4%</SPAN>，为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2008</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月份以来最高结算价。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>在泰国、印尼等地外盘胶纷纷创下年内新高之后，<SPAN lang=EN-US>TOCOM</SPAN>橡胶市场迅速走强，将早期<SPAN lang=EN-US>340</SPAN>的阻力位直接跳空高开，市场多头气氛再次被调动，周五跳空高收<SPAN lang=EN-US>362.5</SPAN>。今早开盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>361.1</SPAN>日圆<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>千克，最新报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>262.6</SPAN>日圆，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.03%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>南海农场召开干部会议<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>抓好<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>天干胶生产<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>固铂轮胎第三季度收徒同比上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>10%<BR></SPAN>期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>本周库存小计<SPAN lang=EN-US>49556</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>6045</SPAN>吨，期货小计<SPAN lang=EN-US>30570</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>4580</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>上海期货交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>RU1105</SPAN>成交及持仓前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>总排名，持买单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>79072</SPAN>手，增持<SPAN lang=EN-US>1240</SPAN>手；持卖单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>62971</SPAN>手，减持<SPAN lang=EN-US>1915</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>对于供应上的紧张在全球蔓延，导致了贸易商纷纷推高现货报价。受沪胶涨停影响，不少贸易商暂停报价封盘，部分云南海南标一价格报价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>33000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，下游不少小型工厂停产，谨慎观望。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：天然橡胶基本面供不应求，但下游对于高价抵触心理提升，需求也相对有限，伴随着期交所不断上升的库存以及对于政府压制高价的政策预期，建议投资者在最后一波凌厉上涨面前要相对谨慎，多单<SPAN lang=EN-US>35300</SPAN>上方逐步逢高减持。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">『免责声明：期市瞬息万变，盘中突发消息也将影响走势突变，投资人应盘中实时应变决策，以上观点仅供参考』<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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