股票论坛 › 股票总论坛 › [原创]瑞达期货：11月3日早盘提示

瑞达期货 发表于 2010-11-3 09:39

<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2010</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">11</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">03</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp; </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">瑞达早盘提示</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">股指期货<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">股指早盘</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">瑞达期货：</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">宽松货币性政策将推动期指继续攀高</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">外盘表现：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">外盘指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-tab-count: 3"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">收盘</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="mso-tab-count: 1">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> <SPAN style="mso-tab-count: 1">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨幅</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">道琼斯</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>11188.70<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>64.10<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>0.58%<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">纳斯达克</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>2533.52<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>28.68<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>1.14%<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN><o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">标普</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">500<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-tab-count: 1">&nbsp; </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN>1193.57<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>9.19<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>0.78%<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">富时</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">100<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>5757.43<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>62.81<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>1.10%<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN><o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">德国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">DAX<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN>6654.31<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>49.45<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>0.75%<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">法国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CAC40<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>3865.72<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>24.61<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>0.64%<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">C0MEX</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">黄金</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>1356.50<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>-0.40<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>-0.03%<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">NYMEX</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">原油</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>84.48<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>0.58<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>0.69%<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美元指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>76.70<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>-0.46<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>-0.60%<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">小结：在美国人周二进行选举之际和投资者预计美联储将推出新一轮量化宽松措施，美股收高。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">消息面：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">央行</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">:</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">继续实行宽松货币政策，关注通胀压力；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">央行再提货币条件回归常态，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">12</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月或上调存准率；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">机构预测</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CPI</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">超</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，再次加息可能性增大；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">昨日深沪两市合计成交创出</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5441</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">亿元的“天量”纪录；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5. 10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份的欧元区</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">Markit</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">制造业指数从</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">53.7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">点上升至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">54.6</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">点，超过预期；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">6. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">澳洲联储宣布加息</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">25</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">个基点至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4.75%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，澳元大涨；印度央行上调再回购利率</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">25</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">个基点；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">．全球再掀议息潮，二次量化宽松大幕或开启。摩根大通认为，美联储的措施有可能让市场失望，政策力度可能不够大；英国和欧洲央行或按兵不动；日本可能小幅调整；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美财政部预计四季度发行</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3620</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">亿美元债券；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">持仓分析：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">昨日前</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">20</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">名主力机构多方持单</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">20996</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，空方持仓</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">24079</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，净空持仓</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3083</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。其中：前</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">名主力机构多方持单</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">9533</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，增单</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">693</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；空方持仓</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">16275</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，大幅减仓</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1141</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，净空持仓</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">6742</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，净空增减变动减少</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1834</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">手。多空力量对比来看，空方仍占优，前</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">名空方主力在持仓量优势优势非常明显且持仓集中程度较高。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">整体来看，昨日持仓可概括为“多增空减”，而空方减仓主要因为国泰君安和中证期货移仓换月所致。主力持仓动向表明，一是，随着主力合约期现基差空间逐步压缩，主力合约套利或套保吸引力渐渐降低；二是，虽有全球加息利空来袭，但后市看好仍是主旋律，表现为主力多方持仓坚挺。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">瑞达研究院观点：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">昨日</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">IF1011</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">合约收盘报</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3500.2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">点，预计</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">IF1011</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">期货合约的区间在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3559-3469</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">之间运行，如上方冲破</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3559</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">点可以小多，止损下设</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">个点；如下方破点</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3469</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">可以介入空单，止损上设</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">个点。如在区间内窄幅震荡，可以高空低多的策略。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">合约名称</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp; </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">强阻力位</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">阻力位</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">支撑位</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">强支撑位</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">IF300<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>3550<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN>3506<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>3434<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>3405<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">IF1011<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>3618<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>3559<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>3469<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>3439<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">IF1012<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>3665<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>3608<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>3522<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>3493<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">IF1103<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>3721<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>3668<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>3589<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>3562<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">IF1106<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>3771<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>3720<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>3644<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>3619<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1 <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">油脂早盘提示：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">外盘：因缺乏新需求消息提振，美豆油追随大豆盘整，主</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">力</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">12</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月合约收于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">49.63</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美分</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">磅；因市场预期烹饪油供应增长可</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">能不能满足中国、巴基斯坦和欧洲不断增长的需求，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">BMD</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">棕榈油</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">逼近逾两年高点后回落，主力</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月合约收跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">令吉</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3090</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">令吉</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">消息：国际方面，船运调查机构</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">SGS</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">称，马来西亚</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月棕榈</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">油出口量为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">132</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">万吨，较</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月下降</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">12%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。国内方面，今年吉林省大</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">豆实行临时存储，每市斤</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元，高于去年每市斤</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.87</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元的收购</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">价。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">现货：昨日油脂现货价格基本稳定，沿海四级豆油约为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> 9100-9400</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨；港口棕榈油报价集中在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8500-8700</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨；国</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">内四级菜油出厂价格处于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">9420-9900</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨水平。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">仓单：豆油，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1027</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">张，较上一交易日减少</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">64</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">张；棕榈油，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">张；菜油，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5803</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">张；均无变化。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">观点总结：就目前的情况下，油脂仍处于调整阶段，在持</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">仓持续下滑、资金不断流出的情况下暂不建议追多，谨慎观望</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。对于稳健投资者而言，可根据季节性规律，进行豆棕或菜棕</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">之间价差扩大套利。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">白糖</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">外盘：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">由于市场方面担心干旱天气会导致全球头号产糖国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">--</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">巴西的食糖产量低于预期，加上全球第二大产糖国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">--</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">印度可能会因增加国内食糖供给量而减少食糖出口，本周二</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">ICE</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">糖市原糖期货价格不仅成功突破了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">30</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美分</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">磅的心理大关，还刷新了今年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月初创下的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">30.40</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美分</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">磅的高点，收盘价更创下了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">30</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">年新高。不过，因拉美地区放假，当日糖市的成交量不是很大。当日</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1103</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">期约糖价暴涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">67</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">个点（</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">+2.3%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">），收于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">30.12</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美分</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">磅，盘中</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1103</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">期约糖价一度冲击了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1981</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">15</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日以来</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">30.64</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美分</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">磅的最高点；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1105</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">期约糖价同时暴涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">67</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">个点（</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">+2.5%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">），以</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">27.92</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美分</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">磅报收。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">基本面消息：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">、</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">Sucden:</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">新制糖年印度糖产量将骤增</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">50% <o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">、路易达孚：中国第四季度将大量进口糖</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">国内现货：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">国内现货小幅上调，南宁报</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7300</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">库存仓单（张）：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1885</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，有效预报</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">388</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">国内主产区天气：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">两天内，全区晴间多云。南宁市：今天白天到晚上，晴到多云，东北风</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1-2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">级，最高气温</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">26</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">℃，最低气温</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">14</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">℃。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">郑糖盘面：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">技术上，郑糖</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1109</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">合约小幅反弹但受压明显，而</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日均线与</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日均线可能将构成死叉并对期价形成压制但仍遭遇</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日均线</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">压制，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> KDJ</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">指标继续向下扩散，仍处调整中，投资者可逢高适量抛空。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> <o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">棉花</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">外盘走势：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">ICE</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">期棉收于涨停，受中国棉花价格上涨以及供应紧张提振。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">12</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月棉花上涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美分，收报每磅</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">134.26</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美分。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">消息面：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">、今年第三季度中国纺织行业指数达到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">101</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">点，比第二季度上升了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">点。服装行业指数达到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">99.1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">点，化纤行业指数达到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">100.3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">点，比第二季度上升了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">点。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">、美国农业部</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(USDA)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">在每周作物生长报告中公布，截至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">31</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日当周，棉花收割率为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">61%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，之前一周为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">53%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，去年同期为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">27%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，五年均值为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">44%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">、</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">11</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日，进口棉中国主港报价再次大幅上涨，除巴西棉和澳棉上涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.6</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美分以外，其他品种普遍上涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3.5-5.7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美分。据最新的消息，印度新棉将从</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">11</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日开始出口装运，其装运进度如何值得关注。从美棉出口周报看，棉价进一步上涨对需求的抑制比较明显，近一周中国的需求也有所减少。不过，本年度的美棉签约进度已超</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">70%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，美棉可供出口的资源也在迅速减少，这会使国际棉价保持坚挺。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">现货方面：棉花指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">328</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">价格为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">27405</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，较上一交易日上涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">339</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">张，有效预报为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">48</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。（每张对应棉花</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">40</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨）。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">主产区天气：未来三天新疆北部、西北地区东南部、黑龙江东北部、山西南部、黄淮西部、江汉西部、西南地区大部等地还会出现小到中雨（雪）或雨夹雪。冷空气南下减弱，影响黄淮至长江中下游地区，气温下降</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">6</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">℃。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日起，一股中等强度冷空气开始影响新疆北部。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">观点总结：因中国需求保持强劲推动基金买盘，美棉收于涨停，上破</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">130</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美分关口；国内棉市供需偏紧格局以及持续攀高的棉籽收购价支撑期价，现货市场延续上涨态势，强势格局未改。郑棉</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1105</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">合约震荡收高，期价位于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">28000</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">上方强势整理，短线有望进一步上试</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">30000</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">关口。操作上，多头思路，逢低短多介入。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">谷物早盘提示：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">外盘：由于缺乏新消息指引，周二</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CBOT</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">玉米期货市场整理性收低。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">消息方面：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">、</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">11</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日国家临时存储</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">含中央储备</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">玉米交易成交率</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">30.56%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">、山西冬小麦播种基本结</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">束，预计今年冬小麦播种总面积将超过</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1000</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">万亩，与上年总面积基本持平；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">、越南</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1-10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月大米出口同比增</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> 8.7%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">583.7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">万吨。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">现货方面：目前广东港口库存继续维持偏低水平不足</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">22</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">万吨，受库存下降的支撑，东北优质玉米成交</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> 2180-2190</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，中等玉米</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2140-2170</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，虽然预报近期到货量将增加，但港内货主仍然看好近期价格</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；郑州强筋小麦出库价</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2280</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，平稳；江西九江早稻收购价</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2000</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨，水分≤</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">13.5%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">库存方面：玉米仓单为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">990</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">张，郑州强麦仓单为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5276</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">张，早籼稻仓单为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5170</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">张。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">观点总结：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">c1105</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">合约成功站上均线系统，后市面临</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2250</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">一线压力，短期震荡思路对待；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">WS1105</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">合约短期均线下压，期价上行动能不足，短期或震荡偏弱；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">ER1105</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">合约上方</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日均线压制，下方</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2280-2310</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">区间具备一定支撑，建议暂时观望或震荡思路对待。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">粕豆</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">消息面：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">、</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">-</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">商务部上调</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月大豆进口量预估至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">450</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">万吨，之前预估为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">415</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">万吨。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">、据圣保罗</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">11</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日消息，谷物分析机构</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">Celeres</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">周一表示，截至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">29</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日当周，巴西农户</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2010/11</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">年度的大豆播种已完成预期种植面积的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">29%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，低于去年同期的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">35%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，但快于往年同期的平均种植进度。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">外盘：美豆期价小幅走低，上档压力作用明显，在美联储会议结果，和下周美农业部产量报告不明朗的情况下，市场交投保持谨慎。。美豆</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月收盘在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1234</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美分，下跌了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美分按目前的走势，近期出现调整的可能性加大。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">国内现货：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">目前产区大豆的收购价格集中在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">-1.94</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">斤，高于国家的收储价格。预计在各方需方收购积极的情况下，国产大豆收购价格近期仍将会保持在高位。沿海地区豆粕现货价格近期有所走弱，油厂出货的速度放缓，饲料厂在目前的行情下，采购的心态比较谨慎。目前沿海地区市场价格在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3500-3550</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">吨。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">操作建议：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">今日连盘豆粕下跌，未能延续昨天的反弹走势，显示出多头推高期价的能量有限，现货市场同样也给予盘面压力。目前看，虽然豆粕从长期来看仍就维持着一个偏多的技术态势，但近期期价迟迟未能突破目前的震荡区间显示多头动能略有不足。连豆小幅回落，走势虽略强于豆粕，但是在目前的价位上，多空双方胶着，期价难以突破</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4400-4450</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">运行区间。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">虽然总体上我们持有中长期看涨思路，但为了规避风险，仍维持之前暂时保持观望的观点，目前的行情做空不宜，多单仍需等待时机再重新介入。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">金属产品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">锌、铝交易提示<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：隔夜，伦锌弱势震荡，日线收十字阴星，此为震荡信号，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2450</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.2%</SPAN>；伦铝继续回升，逼近前期高点，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2430</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.27%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">内外盘比价情况：锌内外比价最高<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.29</SPAN>，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.07</SPAN>，铝内外比价位于<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.97-7.11</SPAN>之间。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>欧元区<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月份制造业增速加快<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2.</SPAN>陕西加大限电力度 汉中锌业或将停产<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：上海现货<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>19300-19400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持平，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>630-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>530</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1#</SPAN>锌报<SPAN lang=EN-US>19250-19350</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持平，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>680-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>580</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>A00 </SPAN>铝报在<SPAN lang=EN-US>16110-16150</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>70</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>-</SPAN>贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>632225</SPAN>吨，较上交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>4225</SPAN>吨，上海交易所锌期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>188761</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1923</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铝库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4297675</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>5400</SPAN>吨，上海交易所铝期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>359632</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>446</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：消息面上，因落实十一五节能减排任务，各省都对有色金属的生产进行一定的限制，此消息对锌铝构成一定支撑。资金面上，沪锌主力合约前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净持仓量出现回升，但维持在净空<SPAN lang=EN-US>12000</SPAN>手以上；沪铝前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名净持仓量变化不大。技术显示，市场或震荡等待方向。操作建议：沪锌选择日内交易；沪铝暂时观望。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>8mm Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4350</SPAN>，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4510</SPAN>，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>(1) </SPAN>明年铁矿石谈判风云再起 矿山直言供应仍十分紧张<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) </SPAN>货币政策酝酿变调：“适度宽松”转“稳健”<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) </SPAN>全国<SPAN lang=EN-US>26</SPAN>个大中城市<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月开盘量降<SPAN lang=EN-US>1/4 (4) </SPAN>印度粉矿<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>日<SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>159-161</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>31150</SPAN>，减<SPAN lang=EN-US>2378</SPAN>。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">小结：周二<SPAN lang=EN-US>RB1105</SPAN>合约高开低走，但其下方仍有支撑，目前期价依旧运行于均线组，钢价上涨趋势保持良好。短期关注美联储新一轮量化宽松货币措施。操作上建议多单继续依托<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铜<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：昨日伦铜受益于美元继续走软，而大幅上涨，尾盘涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.75%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>8411</SPAN>，目前铜价运行于均线组之上，上涨趋势依旧。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>澳洲央行意外加息至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.75%</SPAN>，推动澳币大幅上扬。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>欧元区<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月制造业指数从<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月的<SPAN lang=EN-US>53.7</SPAN>上升至<SPAN lang=EN-US>54.6</SPAN>，超出预期的<SPAN lang=EN-US>54.1</SPAN>，显示出<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月欧洲制造业开始增长。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：上海现铜报<SPAN lang=EN-US>62800-63300</SPAN>元，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，现货平水铜贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>200</SPAN>，内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.64-7.66</SPAN>，比价小幅走高，表明内盘比较抗跌。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>日<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铜库存增加减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>625</SPAN>吨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>366950</SPAN>吨，注销仓单占库存比为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.65%</SPAN>，较昨日小幅减少，据历史数据显示，注销仓单占比在<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>之下的话，伦铜库存增加的可能性较大，目前的水平表明库存还将有减少的空间。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：昨日伦铜受益于美元继续走软而大幅上扬。因澳储行意外加息和欧元区<SPAN lang=EN-US>PMI</SPAN>表现良好而打压美元，但美国会议决议未公布之前，还不能完全判定美元指数的方向，因此铜价料继续震荡。基本面方面伦铜库存继续减少而且注销仓单表明其库存仍将有减少的空间。目前铜价利多稍占上风，短线可尝试短多思路。止损<SPAN lang=EN-US>62500.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：昨日黄金因美元走软而小幅上涨，其中<SPAN lang=EN-US>COMEX12</SPAN>月黄金尾盘涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.47%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1356.9</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>盎司。目前金价仍处于均线组之上，上涨趋势依旧。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>澳洲央行意外加息至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.75%</SPAN>，推动澳币大幅上扬。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>欧元区<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月制造业指数从<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月的<SPAN lang=EN-US>53.7</SPAN>上升至<SPAN lang=EN-US>54.6</SPAN>，超出预期的<SPAN lang=EN-US>54.1</SPAN>，显示出<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月欧洲制造业开始增长。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>日<SPAN lang=EN-US>SPDR</SPAN>基金黄金持有量减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.91</SPAN>吨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1292.18</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：上海黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US>9999</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>292.34</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.04</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，涨幅为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.01% <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：昨日黄金受美元指数走软而小幅上涨，目前金价运行于均线组之上，上涨趋势依旧。近期美国数据良好，美元时而承压，时而提振，因市场关注的焦点不同，在美联储会议决议公布之前，美元走势较反复。但印度实物黄金需求的增加以及受益通胀忧虑带来的黄金投资需求的增加，使得金价仍有可能像<SPAN lang=EN-US>1400</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>盎司发起冲击。金价短期回调料结束，建议投资者小量多多单参与，止损于<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>日均线处。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">燃料油早评<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">11</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">月<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>日，纽约商业交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>(NYMEX)</SPAN>原油期货触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月份以来最高结算价水平，因为在美国联邦储备委员会<SPAN lang=EN-US>(Fed)3</SPAN>日公布预期中的新一轮经济刺激计划的规模前，美元走软。<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>十二月原油期货结算价涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.95</SPAN>美元，至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>83.90</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.2%</SPAN>，为<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>日以来最高收盘价。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">印度石油需求今后<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>年将增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>40%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">韩国<SPAN lang=EN-US>SK</SPAN>能源<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月将维持原油加工量不变<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-tab-count: 1"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">上期所期货库存<SPAN lang=EN-US>312200</SPAN>吨，持稳<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">上海期货交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>FU1101</SPAN>成交及持仓前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>总排名，持买单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>27817</SPAN>手，增持<SPAN lang=EN-US>2422</SPAN>手；持卖单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>44172</SPAN>手，增持<SPAN lang=EN-US>1271</SPAN>手<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>空头套保头寸持有未动<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">目前华南地区渣油，非标油的价格普遍偏高，从而支撑华南市场价格，由于终端的需求不兴，限制了价格的上涨幅度。华南船用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>交易过驳价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4460-4470</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；库提价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4470-4480</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价持平；华东船用<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>供船在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4500-4580</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，锅炉用<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>品质较好的<SPAN lang=EN-US>4400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨送到终端。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：近期宏观经济方面多政策，而新一期的原油库存报告也即将公布，整体市场较为震荡，短期<SPAN lang=EN-US>4700-4800</SPAN>区间震荡，中期低位多单持有观望。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">连塑<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、供应增加使东北亚乙烯价格跌至两个月来最低价；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、中国成全球最大的塑料回收再生市场。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：今日现货价格继续上调。扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>11200</SPAN>元，较上一交易日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>200</SPAN>元。市场成交一般。亚洲乙烯则继续明显回落，东北亚报<SPAN lang=EN-US>998</SPAN>——<SPAN lang=EN-US>990</SPAN>美元，大跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>41</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>市场成交仍旧清淡。东南亚也小幅回落，报<SPAN lang=EN-US>963</SPAN>——<SPAN lang=EN-US>965</SPAN>美元，跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>美元。中东货物陆续涌入市场，市场低位成交较活跃。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>22704</SPAN>张，与上一交易日持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：今日连塑上行遇阻，再度回落测试短期均线的支撑力度。成交与持仓均大幅回落，显示市场分岐严重，交投日趋谨慎。基本面上，原油横盘整理令市场分岐加重，但国内通胀预期强烈，十月份华北农膜需求旺季又拉动<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>的需求，预计短期内仍将延续震荡攀升格局。操作上，短线投资者日内短多为主，中线多单则可以<SPAN lang=EN-US>11550</SPAN>一线为止损位继续持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>PVC<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、潞安树脂<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>万吨聚氯乙烯项目开工；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、内蒙乌海近日公布电石工业“十二五”发展新规。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货价相对平稳，华东地区乙烯法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8500</SPAN>元，电石法<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>8250</SPAN>元，均与上一交易日持平。下游采购商补仓谨慎。电石价格小幅攀升。西北电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3450</SPAN>—<SPAN lang=EN-US>3700</SPAN>元，华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>4000</SPAN>—<SPAN lang=EN-US>4050</SPAN>元，均有小幅上调。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">仓单库存：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>2871</SPAN>张，较上一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>200</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>依托五日均线窄幅震荡，成交与持仓均明显下滑，显示短期市场分岐较大，多空操作均十分谨慎。基本面上，随着北方天气转冷，部分制品企业开工有所减少，需求趋弱。但国内通胀预期强烈，且<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>上游原料及现货价格坚挺、原料供应减少对<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>形成一定的支撑。后市<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>有望延续区间震荡格局，整理区间大约为<SPAN lang=EN-US>8150</SPAN>——<SPAN lang=EN-US>7950</SPAN>一线操作之间。操作上，投资者手中多单可以<SPAN lang=EN-US>7950</SPAN>一线为止损位谨慎持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>PTA<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油收涨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>API</SPAN>公布的数据显示美国上周原油库存大幅减少。<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX 12</SPAN>月原油期货上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.95</SPAN>美元，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>83.90</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、宁波三菱产能<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年的<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>装置于<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月末因故障再次停车，目前此装置已经正式重启。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、在今年的第三季度，中国纺织行业指数达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>101</SPAN>点，比第二季度上升了<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.1</SPAN>点。中国服装行业指数达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>99.1</SPAN>点，中国化纤行业指数达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>100.3</SPAN>点，比第二季度上升了<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.1</SPAN>点。<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>、江浙地区涤纶长丝市场稳中部分有涨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>POY</SPAN>涨幅多在<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>DTY</SPAN>则涨幅在<SPAN lang=EN-US>100-300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨不等，<SPAN lang=EN-US>FDY</SPAN>稳为主，部分细旦或有光品种涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>50-100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，市场成交气氛尚可。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货价格：华东<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场行情持续拉涨，持货方报盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>8700</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，市场买方寻货积极，主流商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>8600-8650</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，市场交易气氛良好。亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场行情持稳，市场台产货少量报盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1080</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持货方惜售心态明显，主流商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1075</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，韩产货报盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>1065</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，商谈至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1060</SPAN>美元附近。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存数据：交易所仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>21194</SPAN>张，较前一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>360</SPAN>张，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3260</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：原油震荡收涨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>价格维持涨势，上游原料有所支撑。现货市场价格延续回升，卖方较为惜售，市场询盘气氛良好；聚酯切片市场气氛好转，下游织造随需采购。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA1105</SPAN>合约小幅回落，期价位于<SPAN lang=EN-US>9200</SPAN>一线下方窄幅整理，短线有望延续震荡上行走势。操作上，依托<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线短多持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">天然橡胶早评<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">111</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">月<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>日，纽约商业交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>(NYMEX)</SPAN>原油期货触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月份以来最高结算价水平，因为在美国联邦储备委员会<SPAN lang=EN-US>(Fed)3</SPAN>日公布预期中的新一轮经济刺激计划的规模前，美元走软，<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>十二月原油期货结算价涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.95</SPAN>美元，至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>83.90</SPAN>美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">TOCOM</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">橡胶市场受泰国南部强降雨和洪灾影响，增加了市场对橡胶供应收紧的担忧，收盘创下近两周最大增幅，基准<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>月合约报收<SPAN lang=EN-US>334.1</SPAN>日圆<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>千克，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.7%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">越南<SPAN lang=EN-US>2011</SPAN>年橡胶出口同比料降<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.3%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">泰国橡胶重镇合艾遭特大洪水<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">上期所库存<SPAN lang=EN-US>28505</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1680</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">上海期货交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>RU1105</SPAN>成交及持仓前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>总排名，持买单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>57492</SPAN>手，增持<SPAN lang=EN-US>14916</SPAN>手；持卖单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>50668</SPAN>手，增持<SPAN lang=EN-US>8625</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">上海地区云南国营标一报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>30500-30700</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>SCR5</SPAN>报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>30000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，标二报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>29400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，海南国营标一报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>30500-30700</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；越南<SPAN lang=EN-US>3L</SPAN>胶<SPAN lang=EN-US>13</SPAN>税报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>30000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，<SPAN lang=EN-US>17</SPAN>税报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>30700</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右；国储烟片含税报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>31400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">泰国橡胶协会会长<SPAN lang=EN-US>Luckchai Kittipol1</SPAN>日表示，泰国第四季度天然橡胶产量可能下降<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.1%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>93</SPAN>万吨，因强降雨影响割胶<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">天气方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></S

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