<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">全球主要指数</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">22</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日收盘：上证指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2975.04</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.28%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；沪深</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">300</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3378.66</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.12%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；中小板指</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">6665.05</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.33%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；恒生指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> 23517.54</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.56%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；德</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">DAX 6605.84</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.08%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；道琼工业</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">11132.56 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.13%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；纳斯达克</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2479.39 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.80%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">人民币对美元中间价</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">6.6759</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">贬值</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">64</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">个基点；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CRB</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">553.32 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.46%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">BDI 2727.00 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.26%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">GlobalCoal</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">煤炭价格周指（</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">NEWC INDEX 99.03 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2.19%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">RB INDEX 93.96 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">6.91%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">）</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">瑞达国内宏观观点</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">二十国集团</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(G20)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">财长和央行行长会议</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">23</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日在韩国庆州闭幕，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">IMF</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">将向新兴经济体和发展中国家以及代表权过低的国家转移超过</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">6%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">投票权。份额改革完成后，中国持有份额将从现在不足</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">升至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">6.19%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，超越德、法、英，位列美国和日本之后。美国现持有</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">17.67%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">投票权，将继续拥有在国际货币基金组织重大决策上的否决权。此外，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">IMF</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">承诺不打货币战。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">来自商务部的最新统计数据显示，仅</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">号到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">15</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">号半个月的时间，美国商务部对华贸易救济和相关案件多达</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">24</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">起。近来美国已经对中国启动了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">项</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">337</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">调查和一项</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">301</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">调查，领域是涉及太阳能灯、液晶显示器、打印机墨盒等等高附加值产品和新兴产业方面。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">中国人力资源和社会保障部周五称，截至三季度末，城镇登记失业率为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4.1%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，比二季度末下降</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">个百分点。全国城镇登记失业人数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">905</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">万人，比二季度末减少</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">6</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">万人。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">全国人大财经委副主任委员吴晓灵表示央行宣布加息向市场释放了强化通货膨胀预期管理的意图和货币政策回归稳健的信号，并不意味着中国已进入加息周期。中国经济政策应从危机管理转向常规管理，货币政策应该回归稳健，而回归稳健的策略是逐步收紧货币供应增幅，并消化近两年过度宽松和适度宽松政策产生的过多货币供应。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">央行货币政策委员会委员夏斌昨日在参加世纪管理名家讲堂时表示，加息主要看</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CPI</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">的情况，目前来看仍有加息压力。此次加息</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.25</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">个百分点影响不大，对遏制外国热钱进入有个信号作用，而对调控房地产影响不大。国家统计局总经济师姚景源称，中国今年物价直到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">12</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份才会有所下降，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月的居民消费价格指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(CPI)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨幅将高于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">6.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">中国银监员会副主席王兆星表示，中国的利率将逐步走向市场化，并对中资银行的盈利空间形成很大的压缩。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><BR><BR><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">瑞达国际宏观观点</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">．</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">G20</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">集团</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">23</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日宣誓限制“竞争性货币贬值”并同时控制其外部失衡，旨在消除市场可能出现“货币战争”的风险并为更加平衡化的全球经济增长奠定基础。市场对此理解为情况未发生根本性改变，美元本周恐承压，今日美元或将走弱。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">欧洲央行</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(ECB)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">管理委员会委员诺沃特尼</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(Ewald Nowotny)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">表示，在欧元区经济和金融危机被断定结束之前，欧洲央行不会加息，以免妨碍经济的初步复苏。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">．德国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份商业景气指数由</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">106.8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">升至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">107.6</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，高于市场普遍预计的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">106.4</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">创下</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">07</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月以来的最高水平。更多制造业企业拟扩招员工，显示出强劲经济增长态势。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">．加拿大</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月零售销售较前月上涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.5%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，高于预期。显示零售业有所复苏。其中机动车辆与零配件销售、食品与饮料销售、家具及家居用品增长幅度较大；而服装、珠宝饰品、娱乐用品等销售出现下降。数据显示零售业销售增长依靠生活必需品拉动，民众消费欲望不强。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">今日关注重点：美国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> 9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">NAR</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">季调后成屋销售；欧元区</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> 8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月工业订单；日本</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月商品贸易帐；澳大利亚第三季度生产者物价指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 9.4pt; TEXT-INDENT: -9.4pt; mso-char-indent-count: -1.04"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">观点总结</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">G20</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">财长和央行行长会议达成联合声明，缓和了人们对各国货币竞相贬值而导致“货币战争”的担忧，声明强调各国要向着建立“更多由市场决定的汇率制度”这一目标而努力。而出乎市场意外，人民币汇率问题在此次会议未出现激烈交锋。或许人民币短期内升值压力有所减缓，双边浮动将成为近期趋势，但一旦升值速度再次现缓，预计外界压力仍将加重。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">央行货币政策委员会委员夏斌表示加息主要看</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CPI</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">的情况，目前来看仍有加息压力。国家统计局总经济师姚景源称，中国今年物价直到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">12</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份才会有所下降，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月的居民消费价格指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(CPI)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨幅将高于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月。如果</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月和</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">11</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CPI</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">继续创新高，我们预计年内再加一次息的概率比较大。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">欧元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美元（利好）；美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日元（利空）；美指（利空）；德国国债收益率（利空）；美国国债收益率（利空）；日本国债收益率（利空）；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">LIBOR</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt
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